Electronic machines in the guise of digital computers have transformed our world―social,family,commerce,and politics―although not yet health.Each iteration spawns expectations of yet more astonishing wonders.We wait...Electronic machines in the guise of digital computers have transformed our world―social,family,commerce,and politics―although not yet health.Each iteration spawns expectations of yet more astonishing wonders.We wait for the next unbelievable invention to fall into our lap,possibly without limit.How realistic is this?What are the limits,and have we now reached them?A recent survey in The Economist suggests that we have.It describes cycles of misery,where inflated expectations are inevitably followed,a few years later,by disillusion.Yet another Artificial Intelligence(AI)winter is coming―“After years of hype,many people feel AI has failed to deliver”.The current paper not only explains why this was bound to happen,but offers a clear and simple pathway as to how to avoid it happening again.Costly investments in time and effort can only show solid,reliable benefits when full weight is given to the fundamental binary nature of the digital machine,and to the equally unique human faculty of‘intent’.‘Intent’is not easy to define;it suffers acutely from verbal fuzziness―a point made extensively in two earlier papers:“The scientific evidence that‘intent’is vital for healthcare”and“Why Quakerism is more scientific than Einstein”.This paper argues that by putting‘intent’centre stage,first healthcare,and then democracy can be rescued.Suppose every medical consultation were supported by realistic data usage?What if,using only your existing smartphone,your entire medical history were scanned,and instantly compared,within microseconds,with up-to-the-minute information on contraindications and efficacy,from around the globe,for the actual drug you were about to receive,before you actually received it?This is real-time retrieval of clinical data―it increases the security of both doctor and patient,in a way that is otherwise unachievable.My 1980 Ph.D.thesis extolled the merits of digitising the medical record―and,just as digitisation has changed our use of audio and video beyond recognition,so a data-rich medical consultation is unprecedented―prepare to be surprised.This paper has four sections:(1)where binaries help;(2)where binaries ensure extinction;(3)computers in healthcare and civilisation;and(4)data-rich doctoring.Health is vital for economic success,as the current pandemic demonstrates,inescapably.Politics,too,is routinely corrupted―unless we rectify both,failures in AI will be the least of our troubles.展开更多
文摘Electronic machines in the guise of digital computers have transformed our world―social,family,commerce,and politics―although not yet health.Each iteration spawns expectations of yet more astonishing wonders.We wait for the next unbelievable invention to fall into our lap,possibly without limit.How realistic is this?What are the limits,and have we now reached them?A recent survey in The Economist suggests that we have.It describes cycles of misery,where inflated expectations are inevitably followed,a few years later,by disillusion.Yet another Artificial Intelligence(AI)winter is coming―“After years of hype,many people feel AI has failed to deliver”.The current paper not only explains why this was bound to happen,but offers a clear and simple pathway as to how to avoid it happening again.Costly investments in time and effort can only show solid,reliable benefits when full weight is given to the fundamental binary nature of the digital machine,and to the equally unique human faculty of‘intent’.‘Intent’is not easy to define;it suffers acutely from verbal fuzziness―a point made extensively in two earlier papers:“The scientific evidence that‘intent’is vital for healthcare”and“Why Quakerism is more scientific than Einstein”.This paper argues that by putting‘intent’centre stage,first healthcare,and then democracy can be rescued.Suppose every medical consultation were supported by realistic data usage?What if,using only your existing smartphone,your entire medical history were scanned,and instantly compared,within microseconds,with up-to-the-minute information on contraindications and efficacy,from around the globe,for the actual drug you were about to receive,before you actually received it?This is real-time retrieval of clinical data―it increases the security of both doctor and patient,in a way that is otherwise unachievable.My 1980 Ph.D.thesis extolled the merits of digitising the medical record―and,just as digitisation has changed our use of audio and video beyond recognition,so a data-rich medical consultation is unprecedented―prepare to be surprised.This paper has four sections:(1)where binaries help;(2)where binaries ensure extinction;(3)computers in healthcare and civilisation;and(4)data-rich doctoring.Health is vital for economic success,as the current pandemic demonstrates,inescapably.Politics,too,is routinely corrupted―unless we rectify both,failures in AI will be the least of our troubles.
