The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction （NWP）. By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a ...The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction （NWP）. By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a method to estimate imperfect numerical model error. This method can be inversely estimated through expressing the model error as a Lagrange interpolation polynomial, while the coefficients of polyno- mial are determined by past model performance. However, for practical application in the full NWP model, it is necessary to determine the following criteria： （1） the length of past data sufficient for estimation of the model errors, （2） a proper method of estimating the term ＂model integration with the exact solution＂ when solving the inverse problem, and （3） the extent to which this scheme is sensitive to the observational errors. In this study, such issues are resolved using a simple linear model, and an advection diffusion model is applied to discuss the sensitivity of the method to an artificial error source. The results indicate that the forecast errors can be largely reduced using the proposed method if the proper length of past data is chosen. To address the three problems, it is determined that （1） a few data limited by the order of the corrector can be used, （2） trapezoidal approximation can be employed to estimate the ＂term＂ in this study; however, a more accurate method should be explored for an operational NWP model, and （3） the correction is sensitive to observational error.展开更多
In order to guarantee the correctness of business processes, not only control-flow errors but also data-flow errors should be considered. The control-flow errors mainly focus on deadlock, livelock, soundness, and so o...In order to guarantee the correctness of business processes, not only control-flow errors but also data-flow errors should be considered. The control-flow errors mainly focus on deadlock, livelock, soundness, and so on. However, there are not too many methods for detecting data-flow errors. This paper defines Petri nets with data operations(PN-DO) that can model the operations on data such as read, write and delete. Based on PN-DO, we define some data-flow errors in this paper. We construct a reachability graph with data operations for each PN-DO, and then propose a method to reduce the reachability graph. Based on the reduced reachability graph, data-flow errors can be detected rapidly. A case study is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our methods.展开更多
The background error covariance plays an important role in modern data assimilation and analysis systems by determining the spatial spreading of information in the data. A novel method based on model output is propose...The background error covariance plays an important role in modern data assimilation and analysis systems by determining the spatial spreading of information in the data. A novel method based on model output is proposed to estimate background error covariance for use in Optimum Interpolation. At every model level, anisotropic correlation scales are obtained that give a more detailed description of the spatial correlation structure. Furthermore, the impact of the background field itself is included in the background error covariance. The methodology of the estimation is presented and the structure of the covariance is examined. The results of 20-year assimilation experiments are compared with observations from TOGA-TAO (The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) array and other analysis data.展开更多
An evolutionary strategy-based error parameterization method that searches for the most ideal error adjustment factors was developed to obtain better assimilation results. Numerical experiments were designed using som...An evolutionary strategy-based error parameterization method that searches for the most ideal error adjustment factors was developed to obtain better assimilation results. Numerical experiments were designed using some classical nonlinear models （i.e., the Lorenz-63 model and the Lorenz-96 model）. Crossover and mutation error adjustment factors of evolutionary strategy were investigated in four aspects： the initial conditions of the Lorenz model, ensemble sizes, observation covarianee, and the observation intervals. The search for error adjustment factors is usually performed using trial-and-error methods. To solve this difficult problem, a new data assimilation system coupled with genetic algorithms was developed. The method was tested in some simplified model frameworks, and the results are encouraging. The evolutionary strategy- based error handling methods performed robustly under both perfect and imperfect model scenarios in the Lorenz-96 model. However, the application of the methodology to more complex atmospheric or land surface models remains to be tested.展开更多
The microwave radiometer （MRM） onboard the Chang＇ E-1 （CE-I） lu- nar orbiter is a 4-frequency microwave radiometer, and it is mainly used to obtain the brightness temperature （TB） of the lunar surface, from whi...The microwave radiometer （MRM） onboard the Chang＇ E-1 （CE-I） lu- nar orbiter is a 4-frequency microwave radiometer, and it is mainly used to obtain the brightness temperature （TB） of the lunar surface, from which the thickness, temperature, dielectric constant and other related properties of the lunar regolith can be derived. The working mode of the CE-1 MRM, the ground calibration （including the official calibration coefficients）, as well as the acquisition and processing of the raw data are introduced. Our data analysis shows that TB increases with increasing frequency, decreases towards the lunar poles and is significantly affected by solar illumination. Our analysis also reveals that the main uncertainty in TB comes from ground calibration.展开更多
This paper applied the gray system theory to error data processing of NCmachine tools according to the characteristic. It presented the gray metabolism model of error dataprocessing. The test method for the model need...This paper applied the gray system theory to error data processing of NCmachine tools according to the characteristic. It presented the gray metabolism model of error dataprocessing. The test method for the model needs less capacity. Practice proved that the method issimple, calculation is easy, and results are exact.展开更多
The design of iterative learning controller(ILC) requires to store the system input, output or control parameters of previous trials for generating the input of the current trial. In order to apply the iterative learn...The design of iterative learning controller(ILC) requires to store the system input, output or control parameters of previous trials for generating the input of the current trial. In order to apply the iterative learning controller for a real application and reduce the memory size for implementation, a current error based sampled-data proportional-derivative(PD) type iterative learning controller is proposed for control systems with initial resetting error, input disturbance and output measurement noise in this paper.The proposed iterative learning controller is simple and effective. The first contribution in this paper is to prove the learning error convergence via a rigorous technical analysis. It is shown that the learning error will converge to a residual set if a forgetting factor is introduced in the controller. All the theoretical results are also shown by computer simulations. The second main contribution is to realize the iterative learning controller by a digital circuit using a field programmable gate array(FPGA) chip applied to repetitive position tracking control of direct current(DC) motors. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed current error based sampleddata iterative learning controller are demonstrated by the experiment results. Finally, the relationship between learning performance and design parameters are also discussed extensively.展开更多
Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper di...Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper distribution of satellite-observed information in variational data assimilation. In the NMC （National Meteorological Center） method, background error covariances are underestimated over data-sparse regions such as an ocean because of small differences between different forecast times. Thus, it is necessary to reconstruct and tune the background error covariances so as to maximize the usefulness of the satellite data for the initial state of limited-area models, especially over an ocean where there is a lack of conventional data. In this study, we attempted to estimate background error covariances so as to provide adequate error statistics for data-sparse regions by using ensemble forecasts of optimal perturbations using bred vectors. The background error covariances estimated by the ensemble method reduced the overestimation of error amplitude obtained by the NMC method. By employing an appropriate horizontal length scale to exclude spurious correlations, the ensemble method produced better results than the NMC method in the assimilation of retrieved satellite data. Because the ensemble method distributes observed information over a limited local area, it would be more useful in the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. Accordingly, the performance of forecast models can be improved over the area where the satellite data are assimilated.展开更多
In this article, we develop estimation approaches for nonparametric multiple regression measurement error models when both independent validation data on covariables and primary data on the response variable and surro...In this article, we develop estimation approaches for nonparametric multiple regression measurement error models when both independent validation data on covariables and primary data on the response variable and surrogate covariables are available. An estimator which integrates Fourier series estimation and truncated series approximation methods is derived without any error model structure assumption between the true covariables and surrogate variables. Most importantly, our proposed methodology can be readily extended to the case that only some of covariates are measured with errors with the assistance of validation data. Under mild conditions, we derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators. The finite-sample properties of the estimators are investigated through simulation studies.展开更多
A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data an...A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data and prior information about human performance together,a more accurate and specific HEP estimation can be achieved.For the time-unrelated task without rigorous time restriction,the HEP estimated by the common-used human reliability analysis（HRA） methods or expert judgments is collected as the source of prior information.And for the time-related task with rigorous time restriction,the human error is expressed as non-response making.Therefore,HEP is the time curve of non-response probability（NRP）.The prior information is collected from system safety and reliability specifications or by expert judgments.The（joint） posterior distribution of HEP or NRP-related parameter（s） is constructed after prior information has been collected.Based on the posterior distribution,the point or interval estimation of HEP/NRP is obtained.Two illustrative examples are introduced to demonstrate the practicality of the aforementioned approach.展开更多
In this article we study the estimation method of nonparametric regression measurement error model based on a validation data. The estimation procedures are based on orthogonal series estimation and truncated series a...In this article we study the estimation method of nonparametric regression measurement error model based on a validation data. The estimation procedures are based on orthogonal series estimation and truncated series approximation methods without specifying any structure equation and the distribution assumption. The convergence rates of the proposed estimator are derived. By example and through simulation, the method is robust against the misspecification of a measurement error model.展开更多
By using the data in 169 sounding stations over the world,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were tested,and the distribution characteristics of standard errors of geopotential height,temperature and wind speed field from the ...By using the data in 169 sounding stations over the world,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were tested,and the distribution characteristics of standard errors of geopotential height,temperature and wind speed field from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere over the world(most were the land zone) were analyzed.The results showed that the standard error distribution of reanalysis wind speed field data was mainly affected by the jet stream zone.There existed the obvious difference between the jet stream zone and the actual wind field.The distribution of standard error in the wind speed field had the obvious seasonal difference in winter,summer,and the average deviation was larger near the coastline.The high value zones of standard errors of reanalysis geopotential height and temperature field mainly concentrated in the low-latitude region in the Eastern Hemisphere(Indian Ocean coast).The distribution of standard error was basically consistent with average error.Therefore,the standard error could be explained well by the average error.The standard errors of reanalysis temperature and geopotential height data in the inland zone were lower.The high value zone mainly distributed along the coastline,and the average error of wind speed field was bigger near the coastline.It closely related to the quality of data in the sounding stations,the regional difference and the fact that the land observation stations were dense,and the ocean observation stations were fewer.展开更多
Supervised machine learning approaches are effective in text mining,but their success relies heavily on manually annotated corpora.However,there are limited numbers of annotated biomedical event corpora,and the availa...Supervised machine learning approaches are effective in text mining,but their success relies heavily on manually annotated corpora.However,there are limited numbers of annotated biomedical event corpora,and the available datasets contain insufficient examples for training classifiers;the common cure is to seek large amounts of training samples from unlabeled data,but such data sets often contain many mislabeled samples,which will degrade the performance of classifiers.Therefore,this study proposes a novel error data detection approach suitable for reducing noise in unlabeled biomedical event data.First,we construct the mislabeled dataset through error data analysis with the development dataset.The sample pairs’vector representations are then obtained by the means of sequence patterns and the joint model of convolutional neural network and long short-term memory recurrent neural network.Following this,the sample identification strategy is proposed,using error detection based on pair representation for unlabeled data.With the latter,the selected samples are added to enrich the training dataset and improve the classification performance.In the BioNLP Shared Task GENIA,the experiments results indicate that the proposed approach is competent in extract the biomedical event from biomedical literature.Our approach can effectively filter some noisy examples and build a satisfactory prediction model.展开更多
Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the pred...Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.展开更多
基金funded by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (GYHY201206009)the National Key Technologies Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2012BAC22B02)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201006013)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105070 )
文摘The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction （NWP）. By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a method to estimate imperfect numerical model error. This method can be inversely estimated through expressing the model error as a Lagrange interpolation polynomial, while the coefficients of polyno- mial are determined by past model performance. However, for practical application in the full NWP model, it is necessary to determine the following criteria： （1） the length of past data sufficient for estimation of the model errors, （2） a proper method of estimating the term ＂model integration with the exact solution＂ when solving the inverse problem, and （3） the extent to which this scheme is sensitive to the observational errors. In this study, such issues are resolved using a simple linear model, and an advection diffusion model is applied to discuss the sensitivity of the method to an artificial error source. The results indicate that the forecast errors can be largely reduced using the proposed method if the proper length of past data is chosen. To address the three problems, it is determined that （1） a few data limited by the order of the corrector can be used, （2） trapezoidal approximation can be employed to estimate the ＂term＂ in this study; however, a more accurate method should be explored for an operational NWP model, and （3） the correction is sensitive to observational error.
基金supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFB1001804)Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan Project(16511100900)
文摘In order to guarantee the correctness of business processes, not only control-flow errors but also data-flow errors should be considered. The control-flow errors mainly focus on deadlock, livelock, soundness, and so on. However, there are not too many methods for detecting data-flow errors. This paper defines Petri nets with data operations(PN-DO) that can model the operations on data such as read, write and delete. Based on PN-DO, we define some data-flow errors in this paper. We construct a reachability graph with data operations for each PN-DO, and then propose a method to reduce the reachability graph. Based on the reduced reachability graph, data-flow errors can be detected rapidly. A case study is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our methods.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(G1999032801)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40005007,40233033,and 40221503)
文摘The background error covariance plays an important role in modern data assimilation and analysis systems by determining the spatial spreading of information in the data. A novel method based on model output is proposed to estimate background error covariance for use in Optimum Interpolation. At every model level, anisotropic correlation scales are obtained that give a more detailed description of the spatial correlation structure. Furthermore, the impact of the background field itself is included in the background error covariance. The methodology of the estimation is presented and the structure of the covariance is examined. The results of 20-year assimilation experiments are compared with observations from TOGA-TAO (The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) array and other analysis data.
基金supported by the NSFC (National Science Foundation of China) project (Grant Nos. 41061038 and 40925004)project "Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation Research" (Grant No. 2009AA122104) from the National High Technology ResearchOne Hundred Person Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences "Multi-sensor Hydrological Data Assimilation for Key Hydrological Variables in Cold and Arid Regions" (Grant No. 29Y127D01)
文摘An evolutionary strategy-based error parameterization method that searches for the most ideal error adjustment factors was developed to obtain better assimilation results. Numerical experiments were designed using some classical nonlinear models （i.e., the Lorenz-63 model and the Lorenz-96 model）. Crossover and mutation error adjustment factors of evolutionary strategy were investigated in four aspects： the initial conditions of the Lorenz model, ensemble sizes, observation covarianee, and the observation intervals. The search for error adjustment factors is usually performed using trial-and-error methods. To solve this difficult problem, a new data assimilation system coupled with genetic algorithms was developed. The method was tested in some simplified model frameworks, and the results are encouraging. The evolutionary strategy- based error handling methods performed robustly under both perfect and imperfect model scenarios in the Lorenz-96 model. However, the application of the methodology to more complex atmospheric or land surface models remains to be tested.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11173038)
文摘The microwave radiometer （MRM） onboard the Chang＇ E-1 （CE-I） lu- nar orbiter is a 4-frequency microwave radiometer, and it is mainly used to obtain the brightness temperature （TB） of the lunar surface, from which the thickness, temperature, dielectric constant and other related properties of the lunar regolith can be derived. The working mode of the CE-1 MRM, the ground calibration （including the official calibration coefficients）, as well as the acquisition and processing of the raw data are introduced. Our data analysis shows that TB increases with increasing frequency, decreases towards the lunar poles and is significantly affected by solar illumination. Our analysis also reveals that the main uncertainty in TB comes from ground calibration.
文摘This paper applied the gray system theory to error data processing of NCmachine tools according to the characteristic. It presented the gray metabolism model of error dataprocessing. The test method for the model needs less capacity. Practice proved that the method issimple, calculation is easy, and results are exact.
基金supported by National Science Council,Taiwan,China(No.NSC102-2221-E-211-011)National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.61374102)
文摘The design of iterative learning controller(ILC) requires to store the system input, output or control parameters of previous trials for generating the input of the current trial. In order to apply the iterative learning controller for a real application and reduce the memory size for implementation, a current error based sampled-data proportional-derivative(PD) type iterative learning controller is proposed for control systems with initial resetting error, input disturbance and output measurement noise in this paper.The proposed iterative learning controller is simple and effective. The first contribution in this paper is to prove the learning error convergence via a rigorous technical analysis. It is shown that the learning error will converge to a residual set if a forgetting factor is introduced in the controller. All the theoretical results are also shown by computer simulations. The second main contribution is to realize the iterative learning controller by a digital circuit using a field programmable gate array(FPGA) chip applied to repetitive position tracking control of direct current(DC) motors. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed current error based sampleddata iterative learning controller are demonstrated by the experiment results. Finally, the relationship between learning performance and design parameters are also discussed extensively.
基金funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant RACS 2010-2016supported by the Brain Korea 21 project of the Ministry of Education and Human Resources Development of the Korean government
文摘Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper distribution of satellite-observed information in variational data assimilation. In the NMC （National Meteorological Center） method, background error covariances are underestimated over data-sparse regions such as an ocean because of small differences between different forecast times. Thus, it is necessary to reconstruct and tune the background error covariances so as to maximize the usefulness of the satellite data for the initial state of limited-area models, especially over an ocean where there is a lack of conventional data. In this study, we attempted to estimate background error covariances so as to provide adequate error statistics for data-sparse regions by using ensemble forecasts of optimal perturbations using bred vectors. The background error covariances estimated by the ensemble method reduced the overestimation of error amplitude obtained by the NMC method. By employing an appropriate horizontal length scale to exclude spurious correlations, the ensemble method produced better results than the NMC method in the assimilation of retrieved satellite data. Because the ensemble method distributes observed information over a limited local area, it would be more useful in the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. Accordingly, the performance of forecast models can be improved over the area where the satellite data are assimilated.
文摘In this article, we develop estimation approaches for nonparametric multiple regression measurement error models when both independent validation data on covariables and primary data on the response variable and surrogate covariables are available. An estimator which integrates Fourier series estimation and truncated series approximation methods is derived without any error model structure assumption between the true covariables and surrogate variables. Most importantly, our proposed methodology can be readily extended to the case that only some of covariates are measured with errors with the assistance of validation data. Under mild conditions, we derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators. The finite-sample properties of the estimators are investigated through simulation studies.
基金supported by the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(20114307120032)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71201167)
文摘A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data and prior information about human performance together,a more accurate and specific HEP estimation can be achieved.For the time-unrelated task without rigorous time restriction,the HEP estimated by the common-used human reliability analysis（HRA） methods or expert judgments is collected as the source of prior information.And for the time-related task with rigorous time restriction,the human error is expressed as non-response making.Therefore,HEP is the time curve of non-response probability（NRP）.The prior information is collected from system safety and reliability specifications or by expert judgments.The（joint） posterior distribution of HEP or NRP-related parameter（s） is constructed after prior information has been collected.Based on the posterior distribution,the point or interval estimation of HEP/NRP is obtained.Two illustrative examples are introduced to demonstrate the practicality of the aforementioned approach.
文摘In this article we study the estimation method of nonparametric regression measurement error model based on a validation data. The estimation procedures are based on orthogonal series estimation and truncated series approximation methods without specifying any structure equation and the distribution assumption. The convergence rates of the proposed estimator are derived. By example and through simulation, the method is robust against the misspecification of a measurement error model.
基金Supported by The National Key Basic Research Development Plan(2010CB428602)
文摘By using the data in 169 sounding stations over the world,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were tested,and the distribution characteristics of standard errors of geopotential height,temperature and wind speed field from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere over the world(most were the land zone) were analyzed.The results showed that the standard error distribution of reanalysis wind speed field data was mainly affected by the jet stream zone.There existed the obvious difference between the jet stream zone and the actual wind field.The distribution of standard error in the wind speed field had the obvious seasonal difference in winter,summer,and the average deviation was larger near the coastline.The high value zones of standard errors of reanalysis geopotential height and temperature field mainly concentrated in the low-latitude region in the Eastern Hemisphere(Indian Ocean coast).The distribution of standard error was basically consistent with average error.Therefore,the standard error could be explained well by the average error.The standard errors of reanalysis temperature and geopotential height data in the inland zone were lower.The high value zone mainly distributed along the coastline,and the average error of wind speed field was bigger near the coastline.It closely related to the quality of data in the sounding stations,the regional difference and the fact that the land observation stations were dense,and the ocean observation stations were fewer.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61672301)Jilin Provincial Science&Technology Development(20180101054JC)+1 种基金Science and Technology Innovation Guide Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China(2017)Talent Development Fund of Jilin Province(2018).
文摘Supervised machine learning approaches are effective in text mining,but their success relies heavily on manually annotated corpora.However,there are limited numbers of annotated biomedical event corpora,and the available datasets contain insufficient examples for training classifiers;the common cure is to seek large amounts of training samples from unlabeled data,but such data sets often contain many mislabeled samples,which will degrade the performance of classifiers.Therefore,this study proposes a novel error data detection approach suitable for reducing noise in unlabeled biomedical event data.First,we construct the mislabeled dataset through error data analysis with the development dataset.The sample pairs’vector representations are then obtained by the means of sequence patterns and the joint model of convolutional neural network and long short-term memory recurrent neural network.Following this,the sample identification strategy is proposed,using error detection based on pair representation for unlabeled data.With the latter,the selected samples are added to enrich the training dataset and improve the classification performance.In the BioNLP Shared Task GENIA,the experiments results indicate that the proposed approach is competent in extract the biomedical event from biomedical literature.Our approach can effectively filter some noisy examples and build a satisfactory prediction model.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth (Grant No.41405095)the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period (Grant No.2012BAC22B02)the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)
文摘Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.
