A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study em...A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.展开更多
Efficient and accurate prediction of ocean surface latent heat fluxes is essential for understanding and modeling climate dynamics.Conventional estimation methods have low resolution and lack accuracy.The transformer ...Efficient and accurate prediction of ocean surface latent heat fluxes is essential for understanding and modeling climate dynamics.Conventional estimation methods have low resolution and lack accuracy.The transformer model,with its self-attention mechanism,effectively captures long-range dependencies,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.Due to the non-linearity and uncertainty of physical processes,the transformer model encounters the problem of error accumulation,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.To solve this problem,we combine the Data Assimilation(DA)technique with the transformer model and continuously modify the model state to make it closer to the actual observations.In this paper,we propose a deep learning model called TransNetDA,which integrates transformer,convolutional neural network and DA methods.By combining data-driven and DA methods for spatiotemporal prediction,TransNetDA effectively extracts multi-scale spatial features and significantly improves prediction accuracy.The experimental results indicate that the TransNetDA method surpasses traditional techniques in terms of root mean square error and R2 metrics,showcasing its superior performance in predicting latent heat fluxes at the ocean surface.展开更多
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this st...Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.展开更多
A record-breaking prolonged and extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China during 18–23 July 2021.Global and regional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models consistently underpredicted both the 24-h accumula...A record-breaking prolonged and extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China during 18–23 July 2021.Global and regional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models consistently underpredicted both the 24-h accumulated rainfall amount and the 1-h extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou city.This study examines the potential impacts of data assimilation(DA)of atmospheric vertical profiles based on the train-based mobile observation(MO)platforms on precipitation forecasts.The research involved assimilating virtual train-based air temperature(Ta),relative humidity(RH),U and V components of wind profile data based on the ERA5 reanalysis datasets into the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model using three-dimensional variational(3DVar)method.Analysis confirms the reliability of Ta,RH,and wind speed(WS)profiles from ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The assimilation of virtual train-based moisture profiles enhanced the RH analysis field.Furthermore,the forecasts more accurately represented the coverage and intensity of the 6-hour and 24-hour accumulated precipitation,as well as areas with maximum rainfall durations exceeding 20 hours.The threat score(TS)and bias metrics for 6-h,12-h and 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts showed marked improvement for heavy to torrential rain in Henan province,particularly in the Central and Northern regions(hereinafter referred to region CNH).The TS for 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts at 50 and 100 mm rainfall levels increased by 0.17 and 0.18 in Henan province,and by 0.13 and 0.18 in region CNH.During the rainstorm period,water vapor content increased substantially,with enhanced moisture transport from south of Henan province to region CNH driven by southwesterly winds,accompanied by significantly strengthened updrafts.These improvement in water vapor and upward motion ultimately enhanced the forecasts of this extreme rainstorm event.展开更多
Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants,an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemic...Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants,an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemical transport model in simulating PM_(2.5).Based on the NASM joint chemical data assimilation system,the authors quantified the impacts of different meteorological fields on the pollutant simulations as well as revealed the role of meteorological conditions in the accumulation,maintenance,and dissipation of heavy haze pollution.During the two heavy pollution processes from 10 to 24 November 2018,the meteorological fields were obtained using NCEP FNL and ERA5 reanalysis data,each used to drive the WRF model,to analyze the differences in the simulated PM_(2.5) concentration.The results show that the meteorological field has a strong influence on the concentration levels and spatial distribution of the pollution simulations.The ERA5 group had relatively small simulation errors,and more accurate PM_(2.5) simulation results could be obtained.The RMSE was 11.86𝜇g m^(-3)lower than that of the FNL group before assimilation,and 5.77𝜇g m^(-3)lower after joint assimilation.The authors used the PM_(2.5) simulation results obtained by ERA5 data to discuss the role of the wind field and circulation situation on the pollution process,to analyze the correlation between wind speed,temperature,relative humidity,and boundary layer height and pollutant concentrations,and to further clarify the key formation mechanism of this pollution process.展开更多
In order to further enhance the numerical application of weather radar radial velocity,this paper proposes a quality control scheme for weather radar radial velocity from the perspective of data assimilation.The propo...In order to further enhance the numerical application of weather radar radial velocity,this paper proposes a quality control scheme for weather radar radial velocity from the perspective of data assimilation.The proposed scheme is based on the WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation)system and utilizes the biweight algorithm to perform quality control on weather radar radial velocity data.A series of quality control tests conducted over the course of one month demonstrate that the scheme can be seamlessly integrated into the data assimilation process.The scheme is characterized by its simplicity,fast implementation,and ease of maintenance.By determining an appropri-ate threshold for quality control,the percentage of outliers identified by the scheme remains highly stable over time.Moreover,the mean errors and standard deviations of the O-B(observation-minus-background)values are significantly reduced,improving the overall data quality.The main information and spatial distribution features of the data are pre-served effectively.After quality control,the distribution of the O-B Probability Density Function is adjusted in a manner that brings it closer to a Gaussian distribution.This adjustment is beneficial for the subsequent data assimilation process,contributing to more accurate numerical weather predictions.Thus,the proposed quality control scheme provides a valuable tool for improving weather radar data quality and enhancing numerical forecasting performance.展开更多
In recent years,numerical weather forecasting has been increasingly emphasized.Variational data assimilation furnishes precise initial values for numerical forecasting models,constituting an inherently nonlinear optim...In recent years,numerical weather forecasting has been increasingly emphasized.Variational data assimilation furnishes precise initial values for numerical forecasting models,constituting an inherently nonlinear optimization challenge.The enormity of the dataset under consideration gives rise to substantial computational burdens,complex modeling,and high hardware requirements.This paper employs the Dual-Population Particle Swarm Optimization(DPSO)algorithm in variational data assimilation to enhance assimilation accuracy.By harnessing parallel computing principles,the paper introduces the Parallel Dual-Population Particle Swarm Optimization(PDPSO)Algorithm to reduce the algorithm processing time.Simulations were carried out using partial differential equations,and comparisons in terms of time and accuracy were made against DPSO,the Dynamic Weight Particle Swarm Algorithm(PSOCIWAC),and the TimeVarying Double Compression Factor Particle Swarm Algorithm(PSOTVCF).Experimental results indicate that the proposed PDPSO outperforms PSOCIWAC and PSOTVCF in convergence accuracy and is comparable to DPSO.Regarding processing time,PDPSO is 40%faster than PSOCIWAC and PSOTVCF and 70%faster than DPSO.展开更多
An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection...An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection term,the discrete method needs to be chosen very carefully.The finite analytic method is an alternative scheme to solve the advection-diffusion equation.As a combination of analytical and numerical methods,it not only has high calculation accuracy but also holds the characteristic of the auto upwind.To demonstrate its ability,the one-dimensional steady and unsteady advection-diffusion equation numerical examples are respectively solved by the finite analytic method.The more widely used upwind difference method is used as a control approach.The result indicates that the finite analytic method has higher accuracy than the upwind difference method.For the two-dimensional case,the finite analytic method still has a better performance.In the three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,the finite analytic method can effectively improve analysis field accuracy,and its effect is significantly better than the upwind difference and the central difference method.Moreover,it is still a more effective solution method in the strong flow region where the advective-diffusion filter performs most prominently.展开更多
Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in ...Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in order to estimate biomass according to relationship between biomass and backscattering coefficients from SAR data. Based on cost function, parameters of growth model were optimized as per conjugate gradient method, minimizing the differences between estimated biomass and inversion values from SAR data. The results indicated that the simulated biomass using the revised growth model with SAR data was consistent with the measured one in time distribution and even higher in accuracy than that without SAR data. Hence, the key parameters of crop growth model could be revised by real-time growth information from SAR data and accuracy of the simulated biomass could be improved accordingly.展开更多
This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assim...This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.展开更多
The tangent linear（TL） models and adjoint（AD） models have brought great difficulties for the development of variational data assimilation system. It might be impossible to develop them perfectly without great effo...The tangent linear（TL） models and adjoint（AD） models have brought great difficulties for the development of variational data assimilation system. It might be impossible to develop them perfectly without great efforts, either by hand, or by automatic differentiation tools. In order to break these limitations, a new data assimilation system, dual-number data assimilation system（DNDAS）, is designed based on the dual-number automatic differentiation principles. We investigate the performance of DNDAS with two different optimization schemes and subsequently give a discussion on whether DNDAS is appropriate for high-dimensional forecast models. The new data assimilation system can avoid the complicated reverse integration of the adjoint model, and it only needs the forward integration in the dual-number space to obtain the cost function and its gradient vector concurrently. To verify the correctness and effectiveness of DNDAS, we implemented DNDAS on a simple ordinary differential model and the Lorenz-63 model with different optimization methods. We then concentrate on the adaptability of DNDAS to the Lorenz-96 model with high-dimensional state variables. The results indicate that whether the system is simple or nonlinear, DNDAS can accurately reconstruct the initial condition for the forecast model and has a strong anti-noise characteristic. Given adequate computing resource, the quasi-Newton optimization method performs better than the conjugate gradient method in DNDAS.展开更多
Advancements in uncrewed aircrafts and communications technologies have led to a wave of interest and investment in unmanned aircraft systems(UASs)and urban air mobility(UAM)vehicles over the past decade.To support th...Advancements in uncrewed aircrafts and communications technologies have led to a wave of interest and investment in unmanned aircraft systems(UASs)and urban air mobility(UAM)vehicles over the past decade.To support this emerging aviation application,concepts for UAS/UAM traffic management(UTM)systems have been explored.Accurately characterizing and predicting the microscale weather conditions,winds in particular,will be critical to safe and efficient operations of the small UASs/UAM aircrafts within the UTM.This study implements a reduced order data assimilation approach to reduce discrepancies between the predicted urban wind speed with computational fluid dynamics(CFD)Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes(RANS)model with real-world,limited and sparse observations.The developed data assimilation system is UrbanDA.These observations are simulated using a large eddy simulation(LES).The data assimilation approach is based on the time-independent variational framework and uses space reduction to reduce the memory cost of the process.This approach leads to error reduction throughout the simulated domain and the reconstructed field is different than the initial guess by ingesting wind speeds at sensor locations and hence taking into account flow unsteadiness in a time when only the mean flow quantities are resolved.Different locations where wind sensors can be installed are discussed in terms of their impact on the resulting wind field.It is shown that near-wall locations,near turbulence generation areas with high wind speeds have the highest impact.Approximating the model error with its principal mode provides a better agreement with the truth and the hazardous areas for UAS navigation increases by more than 10%as wind hazards resulting from buildings wakes are better simulated through this process.展开更多
A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the ...A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.展开更多
This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and wind...This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.展开更多
Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET),especially at the regional scale,is an extensively investigated topic in the field of water science. The ability to obtain a continuous time series of highly precise ET va...Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET),especially at the regional scale,is an extensively investigated topic in the field of water science. The ability to obtain a continuous time series of highly precise ET values is necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing various problems regarding the use of water. This objective can be achieved by means of ET data assimilation based on hydrological modeling. In this paper,a comprehensive review of ET data assimilation based on hydrological modeling is provided. The difficulties and bottlenecks of using ET,being a non-state variable,to construct data assimilation relationships are elaborated upon,with a discussion and analysis of the feasibility of assimilating ET into various hydrological models. Based on this,a new easy-to-operate ET assimilation scheme that includes a water circulation physical mechanism is proposed. The scheme was developed with an improved data assimilation system that uses a distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM),and the ET-soil humidity nonlinear time response relationship of this model. Moreover,the ET mechanism in the DTVGM was improved to perfect the ET data assimilation system. The new scheme may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states,and may be referenced for accurate estimation of regional evapotranspiration.展开更多
An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts....An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model （Burgers＇ equation model） is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.展开更多
In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolut...In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.展开更多
The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re...The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation. As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.展开更多
A P-vector method was optimized using variational data assimilation technique, with which the vertical structures and seasonal variations of zonal velocities and transports were investigated. The results showed that w...A P-vector method was optimized using variational data assimilation technique, with which the vertical structures and seasonal variations of zonal velocities and transports were investigated. The results showed that westward and eastward flowes occur in the Luzon Strait in the same period in a year. However the net volume transport is westward. In the upper level (0m -500m),the westward flow exits in the middle and south of the Luzon Strait, and the eastward flow exits in the north. There are two centers of westward flow and one center of eastward flow. In the middle of the Luzon Strait, westward and eastward flowes appear alternately in vertical direction. The westward flow strengthens in winter and weakens in summer. The net volume transport is strong in winter (5.53 Sv) but weak in summer (0.29 Sv). Except in summer, the volume transport in the upper level accounts for more than half of the total volume transport (0m bottom). In summer, the net volume transport in the upper level is eastward (1.01 Sv), but westward underneath.展开更多
Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses...Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42030605]the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2020YFA0608004]。
文摘A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42176011 and 61931025the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China under contract No.24CX03001A.
文摘Efficient and accurate prediction of ocean surface latent heat fluxes is essential for understanding and modeling climate dynamics.Conventional estimation methods have low resolution and lack accuracy.The transformer model,with its self-attention mechanism,effectively captures long-range dependencies,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.Due to the non-linearity and uncertainty of physical processes,the transformer model encounters the problem of error accumulation,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.To solve this problem,we combine the Data Assimilation(DA)technique with the transformer model and continuously modify the model state to make it closer to the actual observations.In this paper,we propose a deep learning model called TransNetDA,which integrates transformer,convolutional neural network and DA methods.By combining data-driven and DA methods for spatiotemporal prediction,TransNetDA effectively extracts multi-scale spatial features and significantly improves prediction accuracy.The experimental results indicate that the TransNetDA method surpasses traditional techniques in terms of root mean square error and R2 metrics,showcasing its superior performance in predicting latent heat fluxes at the ocean surface.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 42130608]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2024M753169]。
文摘Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.
基金R&D major projects from China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.(K2022G039)Tibet Autonomous Region Science and Technology Program Project(XZ202402ZD0006-06)+1 种基金Open bidding project for selecting the best candidates from China Meteorological Administration(CMAJBGS202303)The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK0105)。
文摘A record-breaking prolonged and extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China during 18–23 July 2021.Global and regional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models consistently underpredicted both the 24-h accumulated rainfall amount and the 1-h extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou city.This study examines the potential impacts of data assimilation(DA)of atmospheric vertical profiles based on the train-based mobile observation(MO)platforms on precipitation forecasts.The research involved assimilating virtual train-based air temperature(Ta),relative humidity(RH),U and V components of wind profile data based on the ERA5 reanalysis datasets into the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model using three-dimensional variational(3DVar)method.Analysis confirms the reliability of Ta,RH,and wind speed(WS)profiles from ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The assimilation of virtual train-based moisture profiles enhanced the RH analysis field.Furthermore,the forecasts more accurately represented the coverage and intensity of the 6-hour and 24-hour accumulated precipitation,as well as areas with maximum rainfall durations exceeding 20 hours.The threat score(TS)and bias metrics for 6-h,12-h and 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts showed marked improvement for heavy to torrential rain in Henan province,particularly in the Central and Northern regions(hereinafter referred to region CNH).The TS for 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts at 50 and 100 mm rainfall levels increased by 0.17 and 0.18 in Henan province,and by 0.13 and 0.18 in region CNH.During the rainstorm period,water vapor content increased substantially,with enhanced moisture transport from south of Henan province to region CNH driven by southwesterly winds,accompanied by significantly strengthened updrafts.These improvement in water vapor and upward motion ultimately enhanced the forecasts of this extreme rainstorm event.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China[grant number 2022QZKK0101]the Science and Technology Department of the Tibet Program[grant number XZ202301ZY0035G]。
文摘Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants,an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemical transport model in simulating PM_(2.5).Based on the NASM joint chemical data assimilation system,the authors quantified the impacts of different meteorological fields on the pollutant simulations as well as revealed the role of meteorological conditions in the accumulation,maintenance,and dissipation of heavy haze pollution.During the two heavy pollution processes from 10 to 24 November 2018,the meteorological fields were obtained using NCEP FNL and ERA5 reanalysis data,each used to drive the WRF model,to analyze the differences in the simulated PM_(2.5) concentration.The results show that the meteorological field has a strong influence on the concentration levels and spatial distribution of the pollution simulations.The ERA5 group had relatively small simulation errors,and more accurate PM_(2.5) simulation results could be obtained.The RMSE was 11.86𝜇g m^(-3)lower than that of the FNL group before assimilation,and 5.77𝜇g m^(-3)lower after joint assimilation.The authors used the PM_(2.5) simulation results obtained by ERA5 data to discuss the role of the wind field and circulation situation on the pollution process,to analyze the correlation between wind speed,temperature,relative humidity,and boundary layer height and pollutant concentrations,and to further clarify the key formation mechanism of this pollution process.
基金funded by Beijige Fund of Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences(BJG202501)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSY009)+2 种基金Key Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(KZ202203)China Meteorological Administration projects(CMAJBGS202316)the Guiding Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(ZD202404,ZD202419).
文摘In order to further enhance the numerical application of weather radar radial velocity,this paper proposes a quality control scheme for weather radar radial velocity from the perspective of data assimilation.The proposed scheme is based on the WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation)system and utilizes the biweight algorithm to perform quality control on weather radar radial velocity data.A series of quality control tests conducted over the course of one month demonstrate that the scheme can be seamlessly integrated into the data assimilation process.The scheme is characterized by its simplicity,fast implementation,and ease of maintenance.By determining an appropri-ate threshold for quality control,the percentage of outliers identified by the scheme remains highly stable over time.Moreover,the mean errors and standard deviations of the O-B(observation-minus-background)values are significantly reduced,improving the overall data quality.The main information and spatial distribution features of the data are pre-served effectively.After quality control,the distribution of the O-B Probability Density Function is adjusted in a manner that brings it closer to a Gaussian distribution.This adjustment is beneficial for the subsequent data assimilation process,contributing to more accurate numerical weather predictions.Thus,the proposed quality control scheme provides a valuable tool for improving weather radar data quality and enhancing numerical forecasting performance.
基金Supported by Hubei Provincial Department of Education Teaching Research Project(2016294,2017320)Hubei Provincial Humanities and Social Science Research Project(17D033)+2 种基金College Students Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program(National)(20191050013)Hubei Province Natural Science Foundation General Project(2021CFB584)2023 College Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program Project(202310500047,202310500049)。
文摘In recent years,numerical weather forecasting has been increasingly emphasized.Variational data assimilation furnishes precise initial values for numerical forecasting models,constituting an inherently nonlinear optimization challenge.The enormity of the dataset under consideration gives rise to substantial computational burdens,complex modeling,and high hardware requirements.This paper employs the Dual-Population Particle Swarm Optimization(DPSO)algorithm in variational data assimilation to enhance assimilation accuracy.By harnessing parallel computing principles,the paper introduces the Parallel Dual-Population Particle Swarm Optimization(PDPSO)Algorithm to reduce the algorithm processing time.Simulations were carried out using partial differential equations,and comparisons in terms of time and accuracy were made against DPSO,the Dynamic Weight Particle Swarm Algorithm(PSOCIWAC),and the TimeVarying Double Compression Factor Particle Swarm Algorithm(PSOTVCF).Experimental results indicate that the proposed PDPSO outperforms PSOCIWAC and PSOTVCF in convergence accuracy and is comparable to DPSO.Regarding processing time,PDPSO is 40%faster than PSOCIWAC and PSOTVCF and 70%faster than DPSO.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2022YFC3104804,2021YFC3101501,and 2017YFC1404103the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction of China under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-04the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41876014,41606039,and 11801402.
文摘An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection term,the discrete method needs to be chosen very carefully.The finite analytic method is an alternative scheme to solve the advection-diffusion equation.As a combination of analytical and numerical methods,it not only has high calculation accuracy but also holds the characteristic of the auto upwind.To demonstrate its ability,the one-dimensional steady and unsteady advection-diffusion equation numerical examples are respectively solved by the finite analytic method.The more widely used upwind difference method is used as a control approach.The result indicates that the finite analytic method has higher accuracy than the upwind difference method.For the two-dimensional case,the finite analytic method still has a better performance.In the three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,the finite analytic method can effectively improve analysis field accuracy,and its effect is significantly better than the upwind difference and the central difference method.Moreover,it is still a more effective solution method in the strong flow region where the advective-diffusion filter performs most prominently.
基金Supported by National High-tech R & D Program of China (863 Program)(2007AA12Z174)~~
文摘Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in order to estimate biomass according to relationship between biomass and backscattering coefficients from SAR data. Based on cost function, parameters of growth model were optimized as per conjugate gradient method, minimizing the differences between estimated biomass and inversion values from SAR data. The results indicated that the simulated biomass using the revised growth model with SAR data was consistent with the measured one in time distribution and even higher in accuracy than that without SAR data. Hence, the key parameters of crop growth model could be revised by real-time growth information from SAR data and accuracy of the simulated biomass could be improved accordingly.
基金sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant No.ATM0205599)the U.S. Offce of Navy Research under Grant N000140410471Dr. James A. Hansen was partially supported by US Offce of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-06-1-0500)
文摘This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41475094 and 41375113)
文摘The tangent linear（TL） models and adjoint（AD） models have brought great difficulties for the development of variational data assimilation system. It might be impossible to develop them perfectly without great efforts, either by hand, or by automatic differentiation tools. In order to break these limitations, a new data assimilation system, dual-number data assimilation system（DNDAS）, is designed based on the dual-number automatic differentiation principles. We investigate the performance of DNDAS with two different optimization schemes and subsequently give a discussion on whether DNDAS is appropriate for high-dimensional forecast models. The new data assimilation system can avoid the complicated reverse integration of the adjoint model, and it only needs the forward integration in the dual-number space to obtain the cost function and its gradient vector concurrently. To verify the correctness and effectiveness of DNDAS, we implemented DNDAS on a simple ordinary differential model and the Lorenz-63 model with different optimization methods. We then concentrate on the adaptability of DNDAS to the Lorenz-96 model with high-dimensional state variables. The results indicate that whether the system is simple or nonlinear, DNDAS can accurately reconstruct the initial condition for the forecast model and has a strong anti-noise characteristic. Given adequate computing resource, the quasi-Newton optimization method performs better than the conjugate gradient method in DNDAS.
文摘Advancements in uncrewed aircrafts and communications technologies have led to a wave of interest and investment in unmanned aircraft systems(UASs)and urban air mobility(UAM)vehicles over the past decade.To support this emerging aviation application,concepts for UAS/UAM traffic management(UTM)systems have been explored.Accurately characterizing and predicting the microscale weather conditions,winds in particular,will be critical to safe and efficient operations of the small UASs/UAM aircrafts within the UTM.This study implements a reduced order data assimilation approach to reduce discrepancies between the predicted urban wind speed with computational fluid dynamics(CFD)Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes(RANS)model with real-world,limited and sparse observations.The developed data assimilation system is UrbanDA.These observations are simulated using a large eddy simulation(LES).The data assimilation approach is based on the time-independent variational framework and uses space reduction to reduce the memory cost of the process.This approach leads to error reduction throughout the simulated domain and the reconstructed field is different than the initial guess by ingesting wind speeds at sensor locations and hence taking into account flow unsteadiness in a time when only the mean flow quantities are resolved.Different locations where wind sensors can be installed are discussed in terms of their impact on the resulting wind field.It is shown that near-wall locations,near turbulence generation areas with high wind speeds have the highest impact.Approximating the model error with its principal mode provides a better agreement with the truth and the hazardous areas for UAS navigation increases by more than 10%as wind hazards resulting from buildings wakes are better simulated through this process.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490644,41475101 and 41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project(the Western Pacific Ocean System+2 种基金Project Nos.XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)
文摘A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.
基金primarily supported by the National Fundamental Research 973 Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41275031,41322032 and 41475015)+1 种基金the Social Commonwealth Research Program(Grant Nos.GYHY201506004 and GYHY201006007)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Universities of China
文摘This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.
基金National Key Basic Research Program of China(973 Program),No.2015CB452701National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41271003+1 种基金No.41371043No.41401042
文摘Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET),especially at the regional scale,is an extensively investigated topic in the field of water science. The ability to obtain a continuous time series of highly precise ET values is necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing various problems regarding the use of water. This objective can be achieved by means of ET data assimilation based on hydrological modeling. In this paper,a comprehensive review of ET data assimilation based on hydrological modeling is provided. The difficulties and bottlenecks of using ET,being a non-state variable,to construct data assimilation relationships are elaborated upon,with a discussion and analysis of the feasibility of assimilating ET into various hydrological models. Based on this,a new easy-to-operate ET assimilation scheme that includes a water circulation physical mechanism is proposed. The scheme was developed with an improved data assimilation system that uses a distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM),and the ET-soil humidity nonlinear time response relationship of this model. Moreover,the ET mechanism in the DTVGM was improved to perfect the ET data assimilation system. The new scheme may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states,and may be referenced for accurate estimation of regional evapotranspiration.
基金The study has been continued under the support of the Foundation for Research Science and Technology of New Zealand under contract C01X0401
文摘An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model （Burgers＇ equation model） is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.
基金The National Program on Global Change and Air-sea Interaction of China under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-05the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers of China under contract No.U1606405+2 种基金the International Cooperation Project on the China-Australia Research Centre for Maritime Engineering of Ministry of Science and Technology,China under contract No.2016YFE0101400the Aoshan Talents Program under contract No.2015ASTPthe Transparency Program of Pacific Ocean-South China Sea-Indian Ocean supported by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology China under contract No.2015ASKJ01
文摘In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.
文摘The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation. As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.
基金Supported by the Major State Basic Research Program (No. G1999043810) Open Laboratory for Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics (LED)+2 种基金 South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences and the NSFC (No. 40306004).
文摘A P-vector method was optimized using variational data assimilation technique, with which the vertical structures and seasonal variations of zonal velocities and transports were investigated. The results showed that westward and eastward flowes occur in the Luzon Strait in the same period in a year. However the net volume transport is westward. In the upper level (0m -500m),the westward flow exits in the middle and south of the Luzon Strait, and the eastward flow exits in the north. There are two centers of westward flow and one center of eastward flow. In the middle of the Luzon Strait, westward and eastward flowes appear alternately in vertical direction. The westward flow strengthens in winter and weakens in summer. The net volume transport is strong in winter (5.53 Sv) but weak in summer (0.29 Sv). Except in summer, the volume transport in the upper level accounts for more than half of the total volume transport (0m bottom). In summer, the net volume transport in the upper level is eastward (1.01 Sv), but westward underneath.
基金supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1404100 and 2017YFC1404104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775100 and 41830964)。
文摘Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions.
