Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between...Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).展开更多
The Three Gorges Reservoir area hosts numerous high-risk columnar rock masses,but predicting their full-process of collapse dynamics in narrow-deep terrains remains challenging.This study investigated the Changdongzi ...The Three Gorges Reservoir area hosts numerous high-risk columnar rock masses,but predicting their full-process of collapse dynamics in narrow-deep terrains remains challenging.This study investigated the Changdongzi columnar dangerous rock mass(CCDRM)through field surveys and simulated its collapse dynamics with Material Point Method(MPM),and analyzed the collapse-diffusionsurge generation mechanisms.Field investigations revealed a 0.8 m-thick lotus-like extrusion structure at the base,severely degraded by cyclic water fluctuations,predisposing the rock mass to base-crushing failure.Numerical simulations indicate collapse velocities up to 42 m/s,amplified spreading with a 318 m deposition range and 11 m maximum thickness,and two major collisions causing 50%-60%velocity reduction.Gully topography buffers kinetic energy,retaining 5%debris on slopes and channeling 7%into the river.High-speed river impact generates a 20 m-diameter cavity,producing an 11 m surge,identifying the Guandukou Town waterfront 1.2 km downstream as a high-risk zone.These results clarify the collapse mechanisms of columnar dangerous rock mass and inform its hazard mitigation strategies.展开更多
Being caught in a flood is incredibly dangerous.Like many other natural disasters,floods can occur with little or no warning.Flash floods move quickly and have strong currents.They are known to rip(扯)trees out of the...Being caught in a flood is incredibly dangerous.Like many other natural disasters,floods can occur with little or no warning.Flash floods move quickly and have strong currents.They are known to rip(扯)trees out of the ground,destroy buildings and cause bridges to collapse.展开更多
1 Most of us know that eating too much sugar isn't good for us.With its consumption being linked to health dangers like obesity,fatty liver disease,type 2 diabetes,heart disease and cancer,sugar is high on most of...1 Most of us know that eating too much sugar isn't good for us.With its consumption being linked to health dangers like obesity,fatty liver disease,type 2 diabetes,heart disease and cancer,sugar is high on most of our lists of vices(恶行)worth giving up.展开更多
Dangerous rock masses in cold regions subjected to repeated freeze–thaw cycles can cause progressive deterioration in structural planes and rock mechanical properties,which significantly reduces the overall stability...Dangerous rock masses in cold regions subjected to repeated freeze–thaw cycles can cause progressive deterioration in structural planes and rock mechanical properties,which significantly reduces the overall stability and often triggers collapses or landslides.Existing studies focus mostly on singlescale or single-factor analyses but cannot fully capture the coupled mechanisms driving instability under freeze-thaw conditions.This study aimed to establish a theoretical framework to quantitatively characterize the evolution of rock mass stability,thereby providing a sound basis for hazard prediction and prevention.By integrating limit equilibrium theory with rock frost heave and circular hole expansion theory,mechanical models for sliding-and toppling-type dangerous rock masses were established.Three key factors were incorporated:frost heave forces acting on throughgoing structural planes,rock property deterioration in nonpenetrative sections,and progressive freezing depth development.A theoretical relationship between the stability coefficient and the number of freeze-thaw cycles was derived.By considering the Zimei Peaks rock masses in Gansu Province as the case study and conducting parametric analyses,the results revealed that the stability coefficient rapidly decreases during the initial cycles,followed by a slower decrease and eventual stabilization.The coefficient decreased 4.5 times more during the first 15 cycles than during the subsequent 15 cycles.Moreover,stability degradation was strongly influenced by the freezing temperature,initial porosity,and rock debris loss ratio,with critical thresholds determined at a 3.8%porosity and a 0.83 debris loss ratio.The findings indicated that stability deterioration is governed by the coupled effects of frost heave loading,microstructural damage accumulation,and freezing depth development,with clear stagedependent and threshold-driven patterns.This work provides not only a quantitative explanation of instability mechanisms in cold-region rock masses but also practical guidance for engineering stability assessment and disaster mitigation.展开更多
In the practical slope engineering,the stability of lower sliding mass(region A)with back tensile cracks of the jointed rock slope attracts more attentions,but the upper rock mass(region B)may also be unstable.Therefo...In the practical slope engineering,the stability of lower sliding mass(region A)with back tensile cracks of the jointed rock slope attracts more attentions,but the upper rock mass(region B)may also be unstable.Therefore,in this study,based on the stepped failure mode of bedding jointed rock slopes,considering the influence of the upper rock mass on the lower stepped sliding mass,the improved failure model for analyzing the interaction force(F_(AB))between two regions is constructed,and the safety factors(F_(S))of two regions and whole region are derived.In addition,this paper proposes a method to determine the existence of F_(AB) using their respective acceleration values(a_(A) and a_(B))when regions A and B are unstable.The influences of key parameters on two regions and the whole region are analyzed.The results show that the variation of the F_(AB) and F_(S) of two regions can be obtained accurately based on the improved failure model.The accuracy of the improved failure model is verified by comparative analysis.The research results can explain the interaction mechanism of two regions and the natural phenomenon of slope failure caused by the development of cracks.展开更多
Source identification and deformation analysis of disaster bodies are the main contents of high-steep slope risk assessment,the establishment of high-precision model and the quantification of the fine geometric featur...Source identification and deformation analysis of disaster bodies are the main contents of high-steep slope risk assessment,the establishment of high-precision model and the quantification of the fine geometric features of the slope are the prerequisites for the above work.In this study,based on the UAV remote sensing technology in acquiring refined model and quantitative parameters,a semi-automatic dangerous rock identification method based on multi-source data is proposed.In terms of the periodicity UAV-based deformation monitoring,the monitoring accuracy is defined according to the relative accuracy of multi-temporal point cloud.Taking a high-steep slope as research object,the UAV equipped with special sensors was used to obtain multi-source and multitemporal data,including high-precision DOM and multi-temporal 3D point clouds.The geometric features of the outcrop were extracted and superimposed with DOM images to carry out semi-automatic identification of dangerous rock mass,realizes the closed-loop of identification and accuracy verification;changing detection of multi-temporal 3D point clouds was conducted to capture deformation of slope with centimeter accuracy.The results show that the multi-source data-based semiautomatic dangerous rock identification method can complement each other to improve the efficiency and accuracy of identification,and the UAV-based multi-temporal monitoring can reveal the near real-time deformation state of slopes.展开更多
The identification and characterization of concealed in-situ rock blocks on high-steep slope exposures are critical in rock engineering,but remain challenging.This study employs advanced UAV-based photogrammetry to ca...The identification and characterization of concealed in-situ rock blocks on high-steep slope exposures are critical in rock engineering,but remain challenging.This study employs advanced UAV-based photogrammetry to capture high-resolution discontinuity data and develops a fully automated rock block extraction method consisting of three steps:(1)determination of free face and non-free fracture intersections,(2)surface search for rock blocks on free face.and(3)extraction and analysis of rock blocks.This approach simplifies the determination of discontinuity intersections while maintaining high accuracy.By incorporating all types of discontinuities contributing to rock block formation,the method enables precise in-situ rock block identification and extraction.Application to a rock slope in China,produced results consistent with the rock blocks observed in the 3D model,highlighting its accuracy and practical value.展开更多
In this study, the authors describe the profile of people seen in criminal psychiatric expertise in northern Benin and their results. It covered the 138 psychiatric assessments carried out as part of criminal proceedi...In this study, the authors describe the profile of people seen in criminal psychiatric expertise in northern Benin and their results. It covered the 138 psychiatric assessments carried out as part of criminal proceedings in the years 2017 and 2018. Expertises were on men in 94.9% of the cases. They were over 30 years old in 66.2% of cases. They were prosecuted for blood crimes in 89.5% of cases. The defendants were in detention at the time of the expert in 87.5% of cases. Psychiatric experts diagnosed a psychiatric disorder in 22.8% of cases. There was a relationship between the identified psychiatric disorder and the offense that motivated the charge in 25.8% of the mental disorder cases. It was exclusively cases of psychotic disorders. There was an abolition of discernment in 3.8% of the accused.展开更多
Unit 7 1.include/contain (1)I can’t go home now,because my task _______cleaning the windows. (2)As we all know,sea water______ much salt. 2.give in/give up (1)You must______smoking,because it is dangerous for us. (2)...Unit 7 1.include/contain (1)I can’t go home now,because my task _______cleaning the windows. (2)As we all know,sea water______ much salt. 2.give in/give up (1)You must______smoking,because it is dangerous for us. (2)The young man won’t_____before any difficulty. 3.展开更多
Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to ana...Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.展开更多
The modern history of mental health services in China dates back to the founding of the first psychiatric hospital in Guangzhou by the missionary physician John Kerr in 1898.By the time of liberation in 1949 China’s ...The modern history of mental health services in China dates back to the founding of the first psychiatric hospital in Guangzhou by the missionary physician John Kerr in 1898.By the time of liberation in 1949 China’s population was already 500 million but there were only 10 mental health institutions,1 100 psychiatric beds and 50-60 psychiatrists in the country.Health services developed rapidly in the 1950s but by 1957 there were still only 70 psychiatric hospitals with 11 000 beds展开更多
Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats...Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.展开更多
The failure depth of the coal seam floor is one important consideration that must be kept in mind when mining is carried out above a confined aquifer.Determining the floor failure depth is the essential precondition f...The failure depth of the coal seam floor is one important consideration that must be kept in mind when mining is carried out above a confined aquifer.Determining the floor failure depth is the essential precondition for predicting the water-resisting ability of the floor.We have used a high-precision microseismic monitoring technique to overcome the limited amount of data available from field measurements. The failure depth of a coal seam floor,especially an inclined coal seam floor,may be more accurately estimated by monitoring the continuous,dynamic failure of the floor.The monitoring results indicate the failure depth of the coal seam floor near the workface conveyance roadway（the lower crossheading） is deeper and that the failure range is wider here compared to the coal seam floor near the return airway（the upper crossheading）.The results of micro-seismic monitoring show that the dangerous area for water-inrush from the coal seam floor may be identified.This provides an important field measurement that helps ensure safe and highly efficient mining of the inclined coal seam above the confined aquifer at the Taoyuan Coal Mine.展开更多
Aiming at the problem on cooperative air-defense of surface warship formation, this paper maps the cooperative airdefense system of systems （SoS） for surface warship formation （CASoSSWF） to the biological immune s...Aiming at the problem on cooperative air-defense of surface warship formation, this paper maps the cooperative airdefense system of systems （SoS） for surface warship formation （CASoSSWF） to the biological immune system （BIS） according to the similarity of the defense mechanism and characteristics between the CASoSSWF and the BIS, and then designs the models of components and the architecture for a monitoring agent, a regulating agent, a killer agent, a pre-warning agent and a communicating agent by making use of the theories and methods of the artificial immune system, the multi-agent system （MAS）, the vaccine and the danger theory （DT）. Moreover a new immune multi-agent model using vaccine based on DT （IMMUVBDT） for the cooperative air-defense SoS is advanced. The immune response and immune mechanism of the CASoSSWF are analyzed. The model has a capability of memory, evolution, commendable dynamic environment adaptability and self-learning, and embodies adequately the cooperative air-defense mechanism for the CASoSSWF. Therefore it shows a novel idea for the CASoSSWF which can provide conception models for a surface warship formation operation simulation system.展开更多
Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorpho...Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.展开更多
Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. A...Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.展开更多
The dictum of Hippocrates“Let thy food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food”is potentially both more accurate and more dangerous than ever before.This dictum can only be realistically applied if all foods are kn...The dictum of Hippocrates“Let thy food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food”is potentially both more accurate and more dangerous than ever before.This dictum can only be realistically applied if all foods are known to be safe.Nowadays foods are being produced,which are processed in a variety of ways with ingredients sourced from many different countries and processed in a variety of ways.This processing may include the addition of supplements which are intended to improve health and of adulterants which are potentially harmful.Additionally,foods may be contaminated with pesticides and other materials encountered during production and processing.Thus there is a need to identify“unsafe”foods.The question may be better put as:Which foods are safe?展开更多
基金J.YANG was supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42475022,42261144671)the National Key R&D Program of China(Project No.2024YFC3013100)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesM.LU was supported by the Otto Poon Centre of Climate Resilience and Sustainability at HKUST and the Hong Kong Research Grant Committee(Project No.16300424)Data processing and storage were supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).
基金supported by the Regional Innovation Development Joint Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23A2045)the scientific research project of the Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources(KJ-2023046)the scientific and technological project of the Hubei Provincial Bureau of Geological Survey(KJ2024-34)。
文摘The Three Gorges Reservoir area hosts numerous high-risk columnar rock masses,but predicting their full-process of collapse dynamics in narrow-deep terrains remains challenging.This study investigated the Changdongzi columnar dangerous rock mass(CCDRM)through field surveys and simulated its collapse dynamics with Material Point Method(MPM),and analyzed the collapse-diffusionsurge generation mechanisms.Field investigations revealed a 0.8 m-thick lotus-like extrusion structure at the base,severely degraded by cyclic water fluctuations,predisposing the rock mass to base-crushing failure.Numerical simulations indicate collapse velocities up to 42 m/s,amplified spreading with a 318 m deposition range and 11 m maximum thickness,and two major collisions causing 50%-60%velocity reduction.Gully topography buffers kinetic energy,retaining 5%debris on slopes and channeling 7%into the river.High-speed river impact generates a 20 m-diameter cavity,producing an 11 m surge,identifying the Guandukou Town waterfront 1.2 km downstream as a high-risk zone.These results clarify the collapse mechanisms of columnar dangerous rock mass and inform its hazard mitigation strategies.
文摘Being caught in a flood is incredibly dangerous.Like many other natural disasters,floods can occur with little or no warning.Flash floods move quickly and have strong currents.They are known to rip(扯)trees out of the ground,destroy buildings and cause bridges to collapse.
文摘1 Most of us know that eating too much sugar isn't good for us.With its consumption being linked to health dangers like obesity,fatty liver disease,type 2 diabetes,heart disease and cancer,sugar is high on most of our lists of vices(恶行)worth giving up.
基金the financial support provided by the Major Science and Technology Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Grant NO.2024A01003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant NO.51508556)+3 种基金the Key Support Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China Joint Fund(Grant No.U24B2039)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province(Grant NO.20232BAB203079,20224BAB213045)Program of China Scholarship Council(Grant NO.202406430056)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Ph.D.Top Innovative Talents Fund of CUMTB)(Grant NO.BBJ2025081)。
文摘Dangerous rock masses in cold regions subjected to repeated freeze–thaw cycles can cause progressive deterioration in structural planes and rock mechanical properties,which significantly reduces the overall stability and often triggers collapses or landslides.Existing studies focus mostly on singlescale or single-factor analyses but cannot fully capture the coupled mechanisms driving instability under freeze-thaw conditions.This study aimed to establish a theoretical framework to quantitatively characterize the evolution of rock mass stability,thereby providing a sound basis for hazard prediction and prevention.By integrating limit equilibrium theory with rock frost heave and circular hole expansion theory,mechanical models for sliding-and toppling-type dangerous rock masses were established.Three key factors were incorporated:frost heave forces acting on throughgoing structural planes,rock property deterioration in nonpenetrative sections,and progressive freezing depth development.A theoretical relationship between the stability coefficient and the number of freeze-thaw cycles was derived.By considering the Zimei Peaks rock masses in Gansu Province as the case study and conducting parametric analyses,the results revealed that the stability coefficient rapidly decreases during the initial cycles,followed by a slower decrease and eventual stabilization.The coefficient decreased 4.5 times more during the first 15 cycles than during the subsequent 15 cycles.Moreover,stability degradation was strongly influenced by the freezing temperature,initial porosity,and rock debris loss ratio,with critical thresholds determined at a 3.8%porosity and a 0.83 debris loss ratio.The findings indicated that stability deterioration is governed by the coupled effects of frost heave loading,microstructural damage accumulation,and freezing depth development,with clear stagedependent and threshold-driven patterns.This work provides not only a quantitative explanation of instability mechanisms in cold-region rock masses but also practical guidance for engineering stability assessment and disaster mitigation.
基金Projects(52208369,52309138,52108320)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2023NSFSC0284,2025ZNSFSC0409)supported by the Sichuan Science and Technology Program,ChinaProject(U22468214)supported by the Joint Fund Project for Railway Basic Research by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.
文摘In the practical slope engineering,the stability of lower sliding mass(region A)with back tensile cracks of the jointed rock slope attracts more attentions,but the upper rock mass(region B)may also be unstable.Therefore,in this study,based on the stepped failure mode of bedding jointed rock slopes,considering the influence of the upper rock mass on the lower stepped sliding mass,the improved failure model for analyzing the interaction force(F_(AB))between two regions is constructed,and the safety factors(F_(S))of two regions and whole region are derived.In addition,this paper proposes a method to determine the existence of F_(AB) using their respective acceleration values(a_(A) and a_(B))when regions A and B are unstable.The influences of key parameters on two regions and the whole region are analyzed.The results show that the variation of the F_(AB) and F_(S) of two regions can be obtained accurately based on the improved failure model.The accuracy of the improved failure model is verified by comparative analysis.The research results can explain the interaction mechanism of two regions and the natural phenomenon of slope failure caused by the development of cracks.
基金financially supported by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS(No.2021325)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52179117,U21A20159)the Research project of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group Mining Co.,Ltd.(No.2021-P6-D2-05)。
文摘Source identification and deformation analysis of disaster bodies are the main contents of high-steep slope risk assessment,the establishment of high-precision model and the quantification of the fine geometric features of the slope are the prerequisites for the above work.In this study,based on the UAV remote sensing technology in acquiring refined model and quantitative parameters,a semi-automatic dangerous rock identification method based on multi-source data is proposed.In terms of the periodicity UAV-based deformation monitoring,the monitoring accuracy is defined according to the relative accuracy of multi-temporal point cloud.Taking a high-steep slope as research object,the UAV equipped with special sensors was used to obtain multi-source and multitemporal data,including high-precision DOM and multi-temporal 3D point clouds.The geometric features of the outcrop were extracted and superimposed with DOM images to carry out semi-automatic identification of dangerous rock mass,realizes the closed-loop of identification and accuracy verification;changing detection of multi-temporal 3D point clouds was conducted to capture deformation of slope with centimeter accuracy.The results show that the multi-source data-based semiautomatic dangerous rock identification method can complement each other to improve the efficiency and accuracy of identification,and the UAV-based multi-temporal monitoring can reveal the near real-time deformation state of slopes.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3080200)。
文摘The identification and characterization of concealed in-situ rock blocks on high-steep slope exposures are critical in rock engineering,but remain challenging.This study employs advanced UAV-based photogrammetry to capture high-resolution discontinuity data and develops a fully automated rock block extraction method consisting of three steps:(1)determination of free face and non-free fracture intersections,(2)surface search for rock blocks on free face.and(3)extraction and analysis of rock blocks.This approach simplifies the determination of discontinuity intersections while maintaining high accuracy.By incorporating all types of discontinuities contributing to rock block formation,the method enables precise in-situ rock block identification and extraction.Application to a rock slope in China,produced results consistent with the rock blocks observed in the 3D model,highlighting its accuracy and practical value.
文摘In this study, the authors describe the profile of people seen in criminal psychiatric expertise in northern Benin and their results. It covered the 138 psychiatric assessments carried out as part of criminal proceedings in the years 2017 and 2018. Expertises were on men in 94.9% of the cases. They were over 30 years old in 66.2% of cases. They were prosecuted for blood crimes in 89.5% of cases. The defendants were in detention at the time of the expert in 87.5% of cases. Psychiatric experts diagnosed a psychiatric disorder in 22.8% of cases. There was a relationship between the identified psychiatric disorder and the offense that motivated the charge in 25.8% of the mental disorder cases. It was exclusively cases of psychotic disorders. There was an abolition of discernment in 3.8% of the accused.
文摘Unit 7 1.include/contain (1)I can’t go home now,because my task _______cleaning the windows. (2)As we all know,sea water______ much salt. 2.give in/give up (1)You must______smoking,because it is dangerous for us. (2)The young man won’t_____before any difficulty. 3.
基金support by National Science and Technology Support Plan(2007BAC03A02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(30671695)
文摘Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.
文摘The modern history of mental health services in China dates back to the founding of the first psychiatric hospital in Guangzhou by the missionary physician John Kerr in 1898.By the time of liberation in 1949 China’s population was already 500 million but there were only 10 mental health institutions,1 100 psychiatric beds and 50-60 psychiatrists in the country.Health services developed rapidly in the 1950s but by 1957 there were still only 70 psychiatric hospitals with 11 000 beds
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41201551)the Project of Science and Technology Innovation in Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science (CAAS-ASTIP-201X-AII-01)the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund in Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS (2015-J-16)
文摘Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program ofChina(No.2010CB202210)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50874103)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.KB2008135)as well as by the Qinglan Project of Jiangsu Province
文摘The failure depth of the coal seam floor is one important consideration that must be kept in mind when mining is carried out above a confined aquifer.Determining the floor failure depth is the essential precondition for predicting the water-resisting ability of the floor.We have used a high-precision microseismic monitoring technique to overcome the limited amount of data available from field measurements. The failure depth of a coal seam floor,especially an inclined coal seam floor,may be more accurately estimated by monitoring the continuous,dynamic failure of the floor.The monitoring results indicate the failure depth of the coal seam floor near the workface conveyance roadway（the lower crossheading） is deeper and that the failure range is wider here compared to the coal seam floor near the return airway（the upper crossheading）.The results of micro-seismic monitoring show that the dangerous area for water-inrush from the coal seam floor may be identified.This provides an important field measurement that helps ensure safe and highly efficient mining of the inclined coal seam above the confined aquifer at the Taoyuan Coal Mine.
文摘Aiming at the problem on cooperative air-defense of surface warship formation, this paper maps the cooperative airdefense system of systems （SoS） for surface warship formation （CASoSSWF） to the biological immune system （BIS） according to the similarity of the defense mechanism and characteristics between the CASoSSWF and the BIS, and then designs the models of components and the architecture for a monitoring agent, a regulating agent, a killer agent, a pre-warning agent and a communicating agent by making use of the theories and methods of the artificial immune system, the multi-agent system （MAS）, the vaccine and the danger theory （DT）. Moreover a new immune multi-agent model using vaccine based on DT （IMMUVBDT） for the cooperative air-defense SoS is advanced. The immune response and immune mechanism of the CASoSSWF are analyzed. The model has a capability of memory, evolution, commendable dynamic environment adaptability and self-learning, and embodies adequately the cooperative air-defense mechanism for the CASoSSWF. Therefore it shows a novel idea for the CASoSSWF which can provide conception models for a surface warship formation operation simulation system.
基金This research is supported by the West Key Research Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.90202007)the Researcher Introduced Project of Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,the Chinese Academy of Sciences&Ministry of Water Conservancy(Y1006).
文摘Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.
文摘Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.
文摘The dictum of Hippocrates“Let thy food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food”is potentially both more accurate and more dangerous than ever before.This dictum can only be realistically applied if all foods are known to be safe.Nowadays foods are being produced,which are processed in a variety of ways with ingredients sourced from many different countries and processed in a variety of ways.This processing may include the addition of supplements which are intended to improve health and of adulterants which are potentially harmful.Additionally,foods may be contaminated with pesticides and other materials encountered during production and processing.Thus there is a need to identify“unsafe”foods.The question may be better put as:Which foods are safe?
