Bomb cyclones are rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones predominantly found in midlatitude regions.These extreme events are particularly frequent over the North Pacific(NP),posing significant societal and environme...Bomb cyclones are rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones predominantly found in midlatitude regions.These extreme events are particularly frequent over the North Pacific(NP),posing significant societal and environmental risks.Currently,our understanding of the variability of bomb cyclones over the NP remains limited.This study analyzes the variations in multiple NP bomb cyclone characteristics from 1980 onward using four major reanalysis datasets.The results show a weakening trend of bomb cyclones since the beginning of the 21st century,which is characterized by significant reductions in maximum near-surface wind speeds,increases in minimum sea level pressure,and slower deepening rates.Further analysis reveals that the observed weakening trend of bomb cyclones is closely linked to a reduction in maximum 850 hPa Eady growth rate,driven primarily by reduced vertical wind shear within the 30°-45°N latitudinal band.Furthermore,our findings indicate that the Aleutian Low acts to modulate the meridional air temperature gradient over the midlatitude NP,which is corroborated by climate model outputs.This modulation provides a pathway for the Aleutian Low to affect low-level baroclinicity and thus bomb cyclone characteristics.These results have important implications for future projections of bomb cyclone activity over the NP,aiding in risk assessment and mitigating the impacts of these extreme events.展开更多
Against the backdrop of climate change,the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)has captured widespread attention.Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific(WNP)TC...Against the backdrop of climate change,the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)has captured widespread attention.Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific(WNP)TCs.This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models.These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well.The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude.This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP.The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.展开更多
The disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs),including gale-force winds,heavy rainfall,and storm surges,have profound social and economic impacts,which are closely associated with the track,intensity,and structure o...The disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs),including gale-force winds,heavy rainfall,and storm surges,have profound social and economic impacts,which are closely associated with the track,intensity,and structure of TCs.Over the past few decades,significant progress has been made in developing theories and understanding the mechanisms of TC genesis and development,as well as advancing the monitoring and forecasting of TCs.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of upper ocean dynamics on velocity bunching,represented by az-imuthal cutoff wavelength(i.e.,sea surface wind,wave,and current).In this study,over 1400 dual-polarize...The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of upper ocean dynamics on velocity bunching,represented by az-imuthal cutoff wavelength(i.e.,sea surface wind,wave,and current).In this study,over 1400 dual-polarized(vertical-vertical(VV)and vertical-horizontal(VH))Sentinel-1(S-1)synthetic aperture radar(SAR)images collected in tropical cyclones(TC)are utilized.These images are combined with wind and rain observations from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer(SFMR),wave simu-lations conducted using a third-generation numerical wave model,WAVEWATCH-III(WW3),and SAR-derived wind information collected from CyclObs winds.The WW3-simulated significant wave height(SWH)is validated against measurements from HY-2B altimeter taken in August and September 2021,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.48 m and a correlation coefficient(COR)of 0.88.The SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelengths in VV polarization,which quantitatively represent the effect of velocity bunching,are compared with theoretical values calculated using WW3-simulated SWH.A notable relationship is observed between the difference in azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SAR-derived wind speed and WW3-simulated SWH.Analysis results show that the correlation between SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SWH is stronger than that with wind and current.Finally,a machine learning algorithm is used to develop an algorithm aimed at simulating the azimuthal cutoff wavelength in TCs,including wind,wave,and incidence angle.This method yields an RMSE of 8.90 m,a COR of 0.91,and a scatter index of 0.04 for VV-polar-ization SAR.展开更多
Tropical cyclone activity has undergone significant changes under the impact of global warming since the 20th century.However,the characteristic and trend changes of landfalling tropical cyclones over China still need...Tropical cyclone activity has undergone significant changes under the impact of global warming since the 20th century.However,the characteristic and trend changes of landfalling tropical cyclones over China still need to be further clarified.The study conducted an analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of landfalling tropical cyclones over China from 1949 to 2022 using the dataset of the best tracks of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration.Additionally,we explored the influences of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)on landfalling tropical cyclone activities.The results indicate that:(1)The annual average number of landfalling tropical cyclones over China is approximately 8.85,showing a significant decreasing trend,and the decreasing range becomes larger with lower latitude overall.However,both the proportion of landfalling tropical cyclones to the total number and the percentage of higher intensity tropical cyclones increase.(2)The landfall locations of tropical cyclones in China are mainly concentrated between 18°N and 26°N,accounting for approximately 88.2%of the total,and the landfall frequency shows a sharp decline in the regions north of 30°N.The central landfall location of tropical cyclones has shifted significantly northwestward,moving closer to China.Compared to 1949–1969,the central genesis location from 2010 to 2022 shifted 4.5°westward and 2.0°northward.(3)There is a correlation between ENSO and the genesis frequency variation of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and landfalling over China.El Ni?o promotes the genesis of strong tropical cyclones and leads to a more southeastern bias in the genesis location of landfalling tropical cyclones,while La Ni?a has an opposite effect.The PDO also affects the tropical cyclones to a certain extent.During the PDO warm phase,the genesis position of tropical cyclones is westward and the number is smaller than that in the cold phase.This study further clarifies the changing trends and characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones over China since 1949.It also highlights the impacts of ENSO and the PDO on tropical cyclone activities.The findings can serve as a scientific basis for conducting simulations and assessments of tropical cyclones and for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.展开更多
In this study, a variety of high-resolution satellite data were used to analyze the similarities and differences in horizontal and vertical cloud microphysical characteristics of 11 tropical cyclones(TCs) in three dif...In this study, a variety of high-resolution satellite data were used to analyze the similarities and differences in horizontal and vertical cloud microphysical characteristics of 11 tropical cyclones(TCs) in three different ocean basins.The results show that for the 11 TCs in different ocean basins, no matter in what season the TCs were generated when they reached or approached Category 4, their melting layers were all distributed in the vertical direction at the height of about 5 km. The high value of ice water contents in the vertical direction of 11 TCs all reach or approach about 2000 g cm^(–3).The total attenuated scattering coefficient at 532 nm, TAB-532, can successfully characterize the distribution of areas with high ice water content when the vertical distribution was concentrated near 0.1 km^(–1)sr^(–1), possibly because the diameter distribution of the corresponding range of aerosol particles had a more favorable effect on the formation of ice nuclei,indicating that aerosols had a significant impact on the ice-phase processes and characteristics. Moreover, by analyzing the horizontal cloud water content, the distribution analysis of cloud water path(CWP) and ice water path(IWP) shows that when the sea surface temperature was at a relatively high value, and the vertical wind shear was relatively small, the CWP and the IWP can reach a relatively high value, which also proves the importance of environmental field factors on the influence of TC cloud microphysical characteristics.展开更多
In recent years,torrential rain events caused by extratropical cyclones(ETCs)during the boreal midsummer(July-August)in Central and Eastern China have shown an increasing trend.For instence,in August 2024,two ETCs bro...In recent years,torrential rain events caused by extratropical cyclones(ETCs)during the boreal midsummer(July-August)in Central and Eastern China have shown an increasing trend.For instence,in August 2024,two ETCs brought large-scale heavy rainfall to North China,with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm.Using reanalysis datasets and gridded precipitation data,the ETCs that affected Central and Eastern China during the boreal midsummer from 1981 to 2020 were objectively identified and tracked.ETCs causing precipitation were classified based on maximum daily precipitation,resulting in datasets for ETCs with torrential rain(daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm,referred to as ETC_R100)and heavy rain(daily precipitation exceeding 25 mm,referred to as ETC_R25).Comparative analysis can help highlight the characteristics of ETC_R100.This study compares the spatial distribution,movement paths,weather impacts,large-scale atmospheric circulation,and environmental conditions of these two types of precipitation-related ETCs.The following findings emerged:(1)ETC_R100 is driven by the combined forcing of upper-level troughs and warm-moist airflows at lower levels,exhibiting stronger thermal forcing than ETC_R25.(2)The moisture source for ETC_R100 are the Bay of Bengal and the Northwest Pacific,with moisture transported via the South China Sea.Compared to ETCs with nonextreme rainfall,ETC_R100 is characterized by greater atmospheric instability and better moisture conditions,resulting in higher precipitation intensity.(3)Regardless of the precipitation level,ETCs affected different regions but contributed significantly to precipitation in northern China,accounting for approximately 50%of the total precipitation.The results indicate that ETC_R100 differs significantly from ETCs with varying levels of precipitation in terms of statistical characteristics,weather impact,environmental conditions,and cyclogenesis conditions.展开更多
The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors...The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors primarily include:interannual factors—sea surface temperature(SST)in key regions of the WNP,eastern Indian Ocean SST,El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD),and western Pacific teleconnection;decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);and longer-term factor—global warming.This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts,quantitatively assessing their relative importance.A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods.The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions.Among them,the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude,followed by global warming and the AMO.Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.展开更多
Landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)pose tremendous hazards to East Asian coastal areas,particularly in East China,a densely populated and economically vital center.This underscores the critical need for a more in-depth...Landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)pose tremendous hazards to East Asian coastal areas,particularly in East China,a densely populated and economically vital center.This underscores the critical need for a more in-depth investigation into the evolving characteristics and influences of these landfalling TCs.In this study,we explored changes in landfalling TC activity during 1965–2022 and estimated their influences in East China.Our findings demonstrate that the annual frequency of landfalling TCs has exhibited a slight increase since the mid-1990s,while their overall influences have significantly intensified.This intensification is closely associated with the prolonged duration of TCs over land after landfall.The results also reveal that longer overland sustainment is attributed to the descending vertical wind shear(VWS)and ascending low-layer moisture supply over the corresponding areas.In addition,the annual mean genesis location of these landfalling TCs has shown a significant westward migration,which may be advantageous to the increase in TC influences.展开更多
This study investigates the characteristics of secondary eyewall formation(SEF)in idealized tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear(VWS)at different heights.The results show that upper-layer VWS at a relativ...This study investigates the characteristics of secondary eyewall formation(SEF)in idealized tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear(VWS)at different heights.The results show that upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height is more favorable for SEF than upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lowerlayer VWS.In the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height,better-organized stratiform clouds are located in the downwind sector of outer rainbands.The low-level descending inflow associated with the stratiform sector is stronger in these experiments than in the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lower-layer VWS.The enhanced descending inflow can trigger supergradient winds and convergence near the top of the boundary layer,close to three times the radius of the maximum wind,where convection is locally forced.The subsequent convection axisymmetrization leads to SEF.展开更多
An extraordinary tropical cyclone-remote rainstorm with a 24-hour precipitation amount of 624.1 mm occurred in Zhengzhou,China,on 20 July 2021,during which a severe hourly precipitation amount of 201.9 mm at 1700 LST(...An extraordinary tropical cyclone-remote rainstorm with a 24-hour precipitation amount of 624.1 mm occurred in Zhengzhou,China,on 20 July 2021,during which a severe hourly precipitation amount of 201.9 mm at 1700 LST(LST=UTC+8)caused significant economic losses and casualties.Observational analysis and backward trajectory modeling showed that low-level water vapor for this extraordinary rainstorm was transported by the southeasterly jet below 900 hPa from the intensifying Typhoon In-Fa(2021)in the western North Pacific(low-level southeasterly channel).Although the southerly flow between 900 and 800 hPa brought water vapor from the developing Typhoon Cempaka in the South China Sea(low-level southerly channel),it did not converge over Zhengzhou.展开更多
Extratropical transition(ET)is one of the last phases of tropical cyclones(TCs)and corresponds to the structural change from a tropical system to an extratropical system characterized by pronounced asymmetric distribu...Extratropical transition(ET)is one of the last phases of tropical cyclones(TCs)and corresponds to the structural change from a tropical system to an extratropical system characterized by pronounced asymmetric distributions of heavy rainfall and strong wind.This study analyzes the statistical characteristics of ET events involving TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1981–2022.The analysis employs the Cyclone Phase Space(CPS)method to evaluate the accuracy of the fifth-generation reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)in identifying ET based on different TC center definitions.Results show that defining the TC center by the minimum sea level pressure yields the most accurate ET identification.Subsequently,the study investigates several characteristics of ET events in the WNP.It is found that TCs undergoing ET(ETTCs)primarily form in the region of 125°–155°E,10°–25°N,with ET typically initiating between 30°–40°N and completing between 35°–50°N.These ETTCs predominantly occur from April to December,with peak activity observed from August to October.Additionally,the average duration of the ET process is 18.5 h,with longer durations observed from August to October,displaying a roughly 6-year cycle.Spatially,ET events with longer durations tend to occur at lower latitudes.Correspondingly,TCs initiating their ET phase at lower latitudes are typically stronger and larger,and they also experience longer ET durations.展开更多
The present study employs statistical analysis to investigate the relationship between the geopotential height anomalies induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)and the meridional movement of the western Pacific subtropical ...The present study employs statistical analysis to investigate the relationship between the geopotential height anomalies induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)and the meridional movement of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),as well as the mechanisms through which TCs can induce such geopotential height anomalies.Results show that TCs can cause the WPSH to move northward,and the meridional motion of the WPSH ridgeline is related with the geopotential height anomalies,which is better indicated by the relative geopotential height anomalies.In the process of TCs causing the WPSH to move northward,the TCs cause abnormal horizonal warm(cold)advection and abnormal ascending(descending)motion in the region south(north)of 40°N.Since the influence of the abnormal vertical motion is weaker,the abnormal temperature tendency eventually shows a more consistent phase distribution with the abnormal horizonal temperature advection,which is favorable for the temperature to abnormally increase near 40°N.Such an abnormal increase in temperature causes the geopotential height to abnormally increase under the static equilibrium constraint,which further changes the location of the centroid of the WPSH geopotential height,and hence the location of the WPSH ridgeline changes as well.展开更多
This study investigates the size characteristics and related temporal variations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the Western North Pacific(WNP)and those affecting East China(EC)using Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)da...This study investigates the size characteristics and related temporal variations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the Western North Pacific(WNP)and those affecting East China(EC)using Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)data during 2001-20.The average size of EC TCs is found to be similar to that over the WNP.Furthermore,the annual maximum lifetime maximum size(LMS)of EC TCs shows a statistically significant increasing trend,implying a more severe impact on the EC region.Composite analyses of intensity and size variation over the entire lifetime of TCs,before and after re-curvature,and before and after rapid intensification(RI),show that there are significant differences between them in some key areas:(1)The intensity begins to rapidly decrease after the TC has reached its highest intensity,but the size remains quasi-constant;(2)When a TC recurves south of 15°N or north of 30°N,the variation trend for both intensity and size are broadly similar before and after curvature,but their variation trends are opposite when the recurvature occurs between 15°-30°N;(3)After RI,the intensity reaches its peak value within 24 h,whereas the size reaches its LMS after30-48 h.A significant correlation is also found between the rate of change in intensity and that of size during the development stage,with a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and 0.73 for TCs in the WNP and EC,respectively.However,no significant correlation exists during the weakening stage.展开更多
Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical ...Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.展开更多
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a ti...Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.展开更多
There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circula...There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific.Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020,four distinct circulation patterns are identified:the monsoon trough(MT)pattern,accounting for 40.3%of occurrences,the confluence zone(CON)pattern at 26.2%,the easterly wave(EW)pattern at 17.8%,and the monsoon gyre(MG)pattern at 15.7%.The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough,with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks.The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high,and the monsoon trough,with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge.The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows,with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train.MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows.A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity,while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns.The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy,acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.展开更多
This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Resea...This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.展开更多
This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over th...This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.展开更多
This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our num...This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030410)the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant Nos.LSKJ202202404 and LSKJ202202403)+1 种基金the Startup Foundation for Introducing Tal-ent of NUIST,Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(Grant No.JSS-CTD202346)the Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Post-doctoral Talent(Grant No.2023ZB690).
文摘Bomb cyclones are rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones predominantly found in midlatitude regions.These extreme events are particularly frequent over the North Pacific(NP),posing significant societal and environmental risks.Currently,our understanding of the variability of bomb cyclones over the NP remains limited.This study analyzes the variations in multiple NP bomb cyclone characteristics from 1980 onward using four major reanalysis datasets.The results show a weakening trend of bomb cyclones since the beginning of the 21st century,which is characterized by significant reductions in maximum near-surface wind speeds,increases in minimum sea level pressure,and slower deepening rates.Further analysis reveals that the observed weakening trend of bomb cyclones is closely linked to a reduction in maximum 850 hPa Eady growth rate,driven primarily by reduced vertical wind shear within the 30°-45°N latitudinal band.Furthermore,our findings indicate that the Aleutian Low acts to modulate the meridional air temperature gradient over the midlatitude NP,which is corroborated by climate model outputs.This modulation provides a pathway for the Aleutian Low to affect low-level baroclinicity and thus bomb cyclone characteristics.These results have important implications for future projections of bomb cyclone activity over the NP,aiding in risk assessment and mitigating the impacts of these extreme events.
基金supported by a key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42192563]。
文摘Against the backdrop of climate change,the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)has captured widespread attention.Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific(WNP)TCs.This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models.These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well.The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude.This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP.The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.
文摘The disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs),including gale-force winds,heavy rainfall,and storm surges,have profound social and economic impacts,which are closely associated with the track,intensity,and structure of TCs.Over the past few decades,significant progress has been made in developing theories and understanding the mechanisms of TC genesis and development,as well as advancing the monitoring and forecasting of TCs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42076238,42376174)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1426900).
文摘The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of upper ocean dynamics on velocity bunching,represented by az-imuthal cutoff wavelength(i.e.,sea surface wind,wave,and current).In this study,over 1400 dual-polarized(vertical-vertical(VV)and vertical-horizontal(VH))Sentinel-1(S-1)synthetic aperture radar(SAR)images collected in tropical cyclones(TC)are utilized.These images are combined with wind and rain observations from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer(SFMR),wave simu-lations conducted using a third-generation numerical wave model,WAVEWATCH-III(WW3),and SAR-derived wind information collected from CyclObs winds.The WW3-simulated significant wave height(SWH)is validated against measurements from HY-2B altimeter taken in August and September 2021,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.48 m and a correlation coefficient(COR)of 0.88.The SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelengths in VV polarization,which quantitatively represent the effect of velocity bunching,are compared with theoretical values calculated using WW3-simulated SWH.A notable relationship is observed between the difference in azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SAR-derived wind speed and WW3-simulated SWH.Analysis results show that the correlation between SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SWH is stronger than that with wind and current.Finally,a machine learning algorithm is used to develop an algorithm aimed at simulating the azimuthal cutoff wavelength in TCs,including wind,wave,and incidence angle.This method yields an RMSE of 8.90 m,a COR of 0.91,and a scatter index of 0.04 for VV-polar-ization SAR.
基金Young Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province,No.tsqn202103065National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42371084。
文摘Tropical cyclone activity has undergone significant changes under the impact of global warming since the 20th century.However,the characteristic and trend changes of landfalling tropical cyclones over China still need to be further clarified.The study conducted an analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of landfalling tropical cyclones over China from 1949 to 2022 using the dataset of the best tracks of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration.Additionally,we explored the influences of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)on landfalling tropical cyclone activities.The results indicate that:(1)The annual average number of landfalling tropical cyclones over China is approximately 8.85,showing a significant decreasing trend,and the decreasing range becomes larger with lower latitude overall.However,both the proportion of landfalling tropical cyclones to the total number and the percentage of higher intensity tropical cyclones increase.(2)The landfall locations of tropical cyclones in China are mainly concentrated between 18°N and 26°N,accounting for approximately 88.2%of the total,and the landfall frequency shows a sharp decline in the regions north of 30°N.The central landfall location of tropical cyclones has shifted significantly northwestward,moving closer to China.Compared to 1949–1969,the central genesis location from 2010 to 2022 shifted 4.5°westward and 2.0°northward.(3)There is a correlation between ENSO and the genesis frequency variation of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and landfalling over China.El Ni?o promotes the genesis of strong tropical cyclones and leads to a more southeastern bias in the genesis location of landfalling tropical cyclones,while La Ni?a has an opposite effect.The PDO also affects the tropical cyclones to a certain extent.During the PDO warm phase,the genesis position of tropical cyclones is westward and the number is smaller than that in the cold phase.This study further clarifies the changing trends and characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones over China since 1949.It also highlights the impacts of ENSO and the PDO on tropical cyclone activities.The findings can serve as a scientific basis for conducting simulations and assessments of tropical cyclones and for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42192554, 42175008)Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation(TFJJ202201)+1 种基金S&T Development Fund of CAMS (2022KJ012)Basic Research Fund of CAMS (2022Y006)。
文摘In this study, a variety of high-resolution satellite data were used to analyze the similarities and differences in horizontal and vertical cloud microphysical characteristics of 11 tropical cyclones(TCs) in three different ocean basins.The results show that for the 11 TCs in different ocean basins, no matter in what season the TCs were generated when they reached or approached Category 4, their melting layers were all distributed in the vertical direction at the height of about 5 km. The high value of ice water contents in the vertical direction of 11 TCs all reach or approach about 2000 g cm^(–3).The total attenuated scattering coefficient at 532 nm, TAB-532, can successfully characterize the distribution of areas with high ice water content when the vertical distribution was concentrated near 0.1 km^(–1)sr^(–1), possibly because the diameter distribution of the corresponding range of aerosol particles had a more favorable effect on the formation of ice nuclei,indicating that aerosols had a significant impact on the ice-phase processes and characteristics. Moreover, by analyzing the horizontal cloud water content, the distribution analysis of cloud water path(CWP) and ice water path(IWP) shows that when the sea surface temperature was at a relatively high value, and the vertical wind shear was relatively small, the CWP and the IWP can reach a relatively high value, which also proves the importance of environmental field factors on the influence of TC cloud microphysical characteristics.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375014,42088101,42030605)Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(24NLTSZ010)Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by BAST(BYESS2023205)。
文摘In recent years,torrential rain events caused by extratropical cyclones(ETCs)during the boreal midsummer(July-August)in Central and Eastern China have shown an increasing trend.For instence,in August 2024,two ETCs brought large-scale heavy rainfall to North China,with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm.Using reanalysis datasets and gridded precipitation data,the ETCs that affected Central and Eastern China during the boreal midsummer from 1981 to 2020 were objectively identified and tracked.ETCs causing precipitation were classified based on maximum daily precipitation,resulting in datasets for ETCs with torrential rain(daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm,referred to as ETC_R100)and heavy rain(daily precipitation exceeding 25 mm,referred to as ETC_R25).Comparative analysis can help highlight the characteristics of ETC_R100.This study compares the spatial distribution,movement paths,weather impacts,large-scale atmospheric circulation,and environmental conditions of these two types of precipitation-related ETCs.The following findings emerged:(1)ETC_R100 is driven by the combined forcing of upper-level troughs and warm-moist airflows at lower levels,exhibiting stronger thermal forcing than ETC_R25.(2)The moisture source for ETC_R100 are the Bay of Bengal and the Northwest Pacific,with moisture transported via the South China Sea.Compared to ETCs with nonextreme rainfall,ETC_R100 is characterized by greater atmospheric instability and better moisture conditions,resulting in higher precipitation intensity.(3)Regardless of the precipitation level,ETCs affected different regions but contributed significantly to precipitation in northern China,accounting for approximately 50%of the total precipitation.The results indicate that ETC_R100 differs significantly from ETCs with varying levels of precipitation in terms of statistical characteristics,weather impact,environmental conditions,and cyclogenesis conditions.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875114)Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality,China(23DZ1204703)。
文摘The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors primarily include:interannual factors—sea surface temperature(SST)in key regions of the WNP,eastern Indian Ocean SST,El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD),and western Pacific teleconnection;decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);and longer-term factor—global warming.This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts,quantitatively assessing their relative importance.A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods.The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions.Among them,the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude,followed by global warming and the AMO.Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.
基金General Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Service(KM202401)Young Scientists Found of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205197)+2 种基金Beijige Fund of Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences(BJG202501)Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSY009)Key Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(KZ202203)。
文摘Landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)pose tremendous hazards to East Asian coastal areas,particularly in East China,a densely populated and economically vital center.This underscores the critical need for a more in-depth investigation into the evolving characteristics and influences of these landfalling TCs.In this study,we explored changes in landfalling TC activity during 1965–2022 and estimated their influences in East China.Our findings demonstrate that the annual frequency of landfalling TCs has exhibited a slight increase since the mid-1990s,while their overall influences have significantly intensified.This intensification is closely associated with the prolonged duration of TCs over land after landfall.The results also reveal that longer overland sustainment is attributed to the descending vertical wind shear(VWS)and ascending low-layer moisture supply over the corresponding areas.In addition,the annual mean genesis location of these landfalling TCs has shown a significant westward migration,which may be advantageous to the increase in TC influences.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.U2342202 and 42175005]the Qing Lan Project[Grant No.R2023Q06]。
文摘This study investigates the characteristics of secondary eyewall formation(SEF)in idealized tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear(VWS)at different heights.The results show that upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height is more favorable for SEF than upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lowerlayer VWS.In the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height,better-organized stratiform clouds are located in the downwind sector of outer rainbands.The low-level descending inflow associated with the stratiform sector is stronger in these experiments than in the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lower-layer VWS.The enhanced descending inflow can trigger supergradient winds and convergence near the top of the boundary layer,close to three times the radius of the maximum wind,where convection is locally forced.The subsequent convection axisymmetrization leads to SEF.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42305007).
文摘An extraordinary tropical cyclone-remote rainstorm with a 24-hour precipitation amount of 624.1 mm occurred in Zhengzhou,China,on 20 July 2021,during which a severe hourly precipitation amount of 201.9 mm at 1700 LST(LST=UTC+8)caused significant economic losses and casualties.Observational analysis and backward trajectory modeling showed that low-level water vapor for this extraordinary rainstorm was transported by the southeasterly jet below 900 hPa from the intensifying Typhoon In-Fa(2021)in the western North Pacific(low-level southeasterly channel).Although the southerly flow between 900 and 800 hPa brought water vapor from the developing Typhoon Cempaka in the South China Sea(low-level southerly channel),it did not converge over Zhengzhou.
基金Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality,China(23DZ1204703)。
文摘Extratropical transition(ET)is one of the last phases of tropical cyclones(TCs)and corresponds to the structural change from a tropical system to an extratropical system characterized by pronounced asymmetric distributions of heavy rainfall and strong wind.This study analyzes the statistical characteristics of ET events involving TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1981–2022.The analysis employs the Cyclone Phase Space(CPS)method to evaluate the accuracy of the fifth-generation reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)in identifying ET based on different TC center definitions.Results show that defining the TC center by the minimum sea level pressure yields the most accurate ET identification.Subsequently,the study investigates several characteristics of ET events in the WNP.It is found that TCs undergoing ET(ETTCs)primarily form in the region of 125°–155°E,10°–25°N,with ET typically initiating between 30°–40°N and completing between 35°–50°N.These ETTCs predominantly occur from April to December,with peak activity observed from August to October.Additionally,the average duration of the ET process is 18.5 h,with longer durations observed from August to October,displaying a roughly 6-year cycle.Spatially,ET events with longer durations tend to occur at lower latitudes.Correspondingly,TCs initiating their ET phase at lower latitudes are typically stronger and larger,and they also experience longer ET durations.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42305011]。
文摘The present study employs statistical analysis to investigate the relationship between the geopotential height anomalies induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)and the meridional movement of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),as well as the mechanisms through which TCs can induce such geopotential height anomalies.Results show that TCs can cause the WPSH to move northward,and the meridional motion of the WPSH ridgeline is related with the geopotential height anomalies,which is better indicated by the relative geopotential height anomalies.In the process of TCs causing the WPSH to move northward,the TCs cause abnormal horizonal warm(cold)advection and abnormal ascending(descending)motion in the region south(north)of 40°N.Since the influence of the abnormal vertical motion is weaker,the abnormal temperature tendency eventually shows a more consistent phase distribution with the abnormal horizonal temperature advection,which is favorable for the temperature to abnormally increase near 40°N.Such an abnormal increase in temperature causes the geopotential height to abnormally increase under the static equilibrium constraint,which further changes the location of the centroid of the WPSH geopotential height,and hence the location of the WPSH ridgeline changes as well.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under(Grant No.U2142206)the Shanghai Natural Science Foundation(21ZR1477300)+1 种基金Shanghai Science and Technology Commission Project(23DZ1204701)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075056)。
文摘This study investigates the size characteristics and related temporal variations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the Western North Pacific(WNP)and those affecting East China(EC)using Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)data during 2001-20.The average size of EC TCs is found to be similar to that over the WNP.Furthermore,the annual maximum lifetime maximum size(LMS)of EC TCs shows a statistically significant increasing trend,implying a more severe impact on the EC region.Composite analyses of intensity and size variation over the entire lifetime of TCs,before and after re-curvature,and before and after rapid intensification(RI),show that there are significant differences between them in some key areas:(1)The intensity begins to rapidly decrease after the TC has reached its highest intensity,but the size remains quasi-constant;(2)When a TC recurves south of 15°N or north of 30°N,the variation trend for both intensity and size are broadly similar before and after curvature,but their variation trends are opposite when the recurvature occurs between 15°-30°N;(3)After RI,the intensity reaches its peak value within 24 h,whereas the size reaches its LMS after30-48 h.A significant correlation is also found between the rate of change in intensity and that of size during the development stage,with a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and 0.73 for TCs in the WNP and EC,respectively.However,no significant correlation exists during the weakening stage.
基金Under the auspices of the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2017YFA0604902,2017YFA0604903,2017YFA0604901)。
文摘Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1501604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41875114 and 41875057).
文摘Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075015)the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality,China(23DZ1204703).
文摘There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific.Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020,four distinct circulation patterns are identified:the monsoon trough(MT)pattern,accounting for 40.3%of occurrences,the confluence zone(CON)pattern at 26.2%,the easterly wave(EW)pattern at 17.8%,and the monsoon gyre(MG)pattern at 15.7%.The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough,with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks.The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high,and the monsoon trough,with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge.The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows,with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train.MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows.A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity,while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns.The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy,acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.
基金National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC3004200)National Natural Science Foundation of China (42305007,41730960,41875057)National Science Foundation (AGS-1834300)。
文摘This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42288101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK010201-02)+4 种基金GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010945)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20060503)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92158204,42176026,42005035,41906181)Lei YANG is also supported by Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022B1212050003)Special fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SCSIO2023QY01).
文摘This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42192552,42192551,42150710531,42175016,and 42075072)the Shanghai Typhoon Research Fund(Grant No.TFJJ202207)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2023Y010)。
文摘This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.
