Emerging evidence highlights the role of thyroid hormones in cancer,although findings are controversial.Research on thyroid-related traits in lung carcinogenesis is limited.Using UK Biobank data,we performed bidirecti...Emerging evidence highlights the role of thyroid hormones in cancer,although findings are controversial.Research on thyroid-related traits in lung carcinogenesis is limited.Using UK Biobank data,we performed bidirectional Mendelian randomization(MR)to assess causal associations between lung cancer risk and thyroid dysfunction(hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism)or functional traits(free thyroxine[FT4]and normal-range thyroid-stimulating hormone[TSH]).Furthermore,in the smoking-behavior-stratified MR analysis,we evaluated the mediating effect of thyroid-related phenotypes on the association between smoking behaviors and lung cancer.We demonstrated significant associations between lung cancer risk and hypothyroidism(hazard ratio[HR]=1.14,95%confidence interval[CI]=1.03–1.26,P=0.009)and hyperthyroidism(HR=1.55,95%CI=1.29–1.87,P=1.90×10^(-6))in the UKB.Moreover,the MR analysis indicated a causal effect of thyroid dysfunction on lung cancer risk(ORinverse variance weighted[IVW]=1.09,95%CI=1.05–1.13,P=3.12×10^(-6)for hypothyroidism;ORIVW=1.08,95%CI=1.04–1.12,P=8.14×10^(-5)for hyperthyroidism).We found that FT4 levels were protective against lung cancer risk(ORIVW=0.93,95%CI=0.87–0.99,P=0.030).Additionally,the stratified MR analysis demonstrated distinct causal effects of thyroid dysfunction on lung cancer risk among smokers.Hyperthyroidism mediated the effect of smoking behaviors,especially the age of smoking initiation(17.66%mediated),on lung cancer risk.Thus,thyroid dysfunction phenotypes play causal roles in lung cancer development exclusively among smokers and act as mediators in the causal pathway from smoking to lung cancer.展开更多
In a sustainable development context, the monitoring systems are essential to study the building energy performances. With the recent technology advances, these systems can be based on wireless sensor networks, where ...In a sustainable development context, the monitoring systems are essential to study the building energy performances. With the recent technology advances, these systems can be based on wireless sensor networks, where the energy efficiency is the main design challenge. To this end, most of the studies focus on low power Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols to reduce the overall energy consumption of a network. Nevertheless, the performances assessment of these protocols is generally not performed in a realistic way, and does not take into account the performances of the other layers of the OSI model. In this paper, we propose a cross-layer methodology to assess the real performances of a MAC protocol by taking into account the traffic volume, the synchronization losses and more particularly the physical layer performances through a Bit Error Rate (BER) criterion. The simulation results demonstrate clearly the physical layer impact on a sensor lifetime. Finally, the proposal of an energy efficient MAC protocol for a wireless sensor network dedicated to an application of building monitoring is proposed.展开更多
An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or p...An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or pentration in the receiver of micro turbojet engine casing,and the comparisons are also made with the results from the traditional fault tree analysis.Experimental results show two main advantages：（1）Quantitative analysis which is more reliable for the failure analysis in jet engines can be produced by the causality diagram analysis;（2）Graphical representation of causality diagram is easier to apply in real test cases and more effective for the safety assessment.展开更多
Recognizing target intent is crucial for making decisions on the battlefield.However,the imperfect and ambiguous character of battlefield situations challenges the validity and causation analysis of classical intent r...Recognizing target intent is crucial for making decisions on the battlefield.However,the imperfect and ambiguous character of battlefield situations challenges the validity and causation analysis of classical intent recognition techniques.Facing with the challenge,a target intention causal analysis paradigm is proposed by combining with an Intervention Retrieval(IR)model and a Hybrid Intention Recognition(HIR)model.The target data acquired by the sensors are modelled as Basic Probability Assignments(BPAs)based on evidence theory to create uncertain datasets.Then,the HIR model is utilized to recognize intent for a tested sample from uncertain datasets.Finally,the intervention operator under the evidence structure is utilized to perform attribute intervention on the tested sample.Data retrieval is performed in the sample database based on the IR model to generate the intention distribution of the pseudo-intervention samples to analyze the causal effects of individual sample attributes.The simulation results demonstrate that our framework successfully identifies the target intention under the evidence structure and goes further to analyze the causal impact of sample attributes on the target intention.展开更多
Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper...Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.展开更多
Working at height is widespread across various industries,with frequent and hazardous falls occurring regularly.Such tasks are often linked to multifactorial issues,where the interplay of diverse factors leads to acci...Working at height is widespread across various industries,with frequent and hazardous falls occurring regularly.Such tasks are often linked to multifactorial issues,where the interplay of diverse factors leads to accidents that are challenging to control effectively.This study establishes an index system for the factors influencing falls from height by statistically analyzing 101 incidents,identifying 64 causative elements classified into four categories.These include 17 factors related to operator condition and behavior,13 concerning equipment and facility conditions,7 pertaining to site conditions,and 27 associated with production operations management.Utilizing the Apriori algorithm and Gephi software,the study mined the association rules of causal factors in falls from height and constructed their network diagram.By examining association rules with high support,confidence,and lift,the relationships between key causal factors leading to accidents are clarified,identifying critical operational control points and providing a scientific foundation for reducing the incidence of falls from height.Currently,China's standards related to working at height remain fragmented.This study lays the foundation for the development of comprehensive,systematic,generic safety management standards for working at height,satisfying the needs of the field.展开更多
In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block （a secondary tectonic unit in the North China） and approach the relation...In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block （a secondary tectonic unit in the North China） and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously correlative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction （VEC） model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.展开更多
Modern industrial systems are usually in large scale,consisting of massive components and variables that form a complex system topology.Owing to the interconnections among devices,a fault may occur and propagate to ex...Modern industrial systems are usually in large scale,consisting of massive components and variables that form a complex system topology.Owing to the interconnections among devices,a fault may occur and propagate to exert widespread influences and lead to a variety of alarms.Obtaining the root causes of alarms is beneficial to the decision supports in making corrective alarm responses.Existing data-driven methods for alarm root cause analysis detect causal relations among alarms mainly based on historical alarm event data.To improve the accuracy,this paper proposes a causal fusion inference method for industrial alarm root cause analysis based on process topology and alarm events.A Granger causality inference method considering process topology is exploited to find out the causal relations among alarms.The topological nodes are used as the inputs of the model,and the alarm causal adjacency matrix between alarm variables is obtained by calculating the likelihood of the topological Hawkes process.The root cause is then obtained from the directed acyclic graph(DAG)among alarm variables.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulations based on both a numerical example and the Tennessee Eastman process(TEP)model.展开更多
The Causal relation and whole-part relation are the two fundamen-tal relations in economics.In this paper,on the basis of economic prob-lems analysis in practioce,some causal relation structures of economic sys-tems a...The Causal relation and whole-part relation are the two fundamen-tal relations in economics.In this paper,on the basis of economic prob-lems analysis in practioce,some causal relation structures of economic sys-tems and fundamental rules for operations research are,at first,prop-osed.And then,a quotienting(simplifying)analysis approach of eco-nomic causal relations is presented and discussed in detail.At last,animprovement framework of system dynamics is proposed based on theviewpoint of generalized causal relations analysis.展开更多
BACKGROUND Liver cirrhosis is a progressive hepatic disease whose immunological basis has attracted increasing attention.However,it remains unclear whether a concrete causal association exists between immunocyte pheno...BACKGROUND Liver cirrhosis is a progressive hepatic disease whose immunological basis has attracted increasing attention.However,it remains unclear whether a concrete causal association exists between immunocyte phenotypes and liver cirrhosis.AIM To explore the concrete causal relationships between immunocyte phenotypes and liver cirrhosis through a mendelian randomization(MR)study.METHODS Data on 731 immunocyte phenotypes were obtained from genome-wide assoc-iation studies.Liver cirrhosis data were derived from the Finn Gen dataset,which included 214403 individuals of European ancestry.We used inverse variable weighting as the primary analysis method to assess the causal relationship.Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy.RESULTS The MR analysis demonstrated that 11 immune cell phenotypes have a positive association with liver cirrhosis[P<0.05,odds ratio(OR)>1]and that 9 immu-nocyte phenotypes were negatively correlated with liver cirrhosis(P<0.05,OR<1).Liver cirrhosis was positively linked to 9 immune cell phenotypes(P<0.05,OR>1)and negatively linked to 10 immune cell phenotypes(P<0.05;OR<1).None of these associations showed heterogeneity or horizontally pleiotropy(P>0.05).CONCLUSION This bidirectional two-sample MR study demonstrated a concrete causal association between immunocyte phenotypes and liver cirrhosis.These findings offer new directions for the treatment of liver cirrhosis.展开更多
After the 21st century,high school history learning will focus on teachers promoting the twelve-year state education.In recent years,in line with the changes in the new 108-year social curriculum,supporting strategies...After the 21st century,high school history learning will focus on teachers promoting the twelve-year state education.In recent years,in line with the changes in the new 108-year social curriculum,supporting strategies have been proposed:such as literacy orientation,inquiry and practice,learning process archives,and the structural direction of the controversial Chinese history into East Asian history.Historical learning has indeed had a great impact on the people’s national spiritual education and the development of historical consciousness in Taiwan’s education policy.This is the reason Taiwan’s Ministry of Education strives to improve students’historical literacy and connotation application abilities.When developing a learning policy,both external and internal learning factors need to be considered.The external aspect deals with the reasons for learning:Is learning for the purpose of using or accumulating historical wisdom in daily life to learn from the past and the present,on the other hand,to test the content of the course and the degree of absorption;or is it specifically for exams or other enlightenment purposes.The internal aspect involves those most affected by the policy:students and teachers.After studying and observing high school history learning policies for decades,some alternative future visions for history learning were found in the method of reflection on future research-the conclusion is that history is interestingly revitalized,and the preferred future is thematic history.According to the famous futurology scholar Sohail Inayatuallah’s proposal:the causal layering model.It helps understand how Taiwan’s historical policies operate.And how teachers and students on the front line respond to changes and take future actions.The key is to change the future:in the process of building an alternative future,whether the internal and external mix has changed or whether you want to try new things and expand your horizons.In fact,the difficulty of teaching lies in students’cooperation and conscious learning.Therefore,in the analysis of learning through alternative futures,is it possible to distinguish between internal and external situations and methods such as:1.Internal:Is education centered on teachers?Or is it student-centered?2.External:Does the Ministry of Education prioritize testing,or encourage teachers to adopt interactive communication and integrate education into the curriculum?Therefore,what is the function and inspiration of studying high school history and life?If thematic history teaching is used:teachers can use thematic learning methods to help students focus on causal relationships,the causes of turning points,or the evolution process of the beginning and end of events.This is more advantageous for testing based on the application topic,and it is easy to test how much understanding and understanding of history?Has an activating effect.By studying history in high school,using the“CLA(Causal layered analysis)”method of future studies,you can enter the stage of worldview exploration with the goal of improving professional depth and emotional level,and use it in your own understanding and utilization of history.Based on research,some insights into the prospects and thinking of learning history in high schools are provided:1.Facing the impact of declining birthrate,Taiwan needs a macro perspective to improve its future competitiveness and look forward to a new perspective on world history,using futuristic cause-and-effect level analysis to combine world changes with daily life applications.2.The study of history in high schools should go into a systematic construction:understand its cause-and-effect relationships and global trends,so teachers play a professional and future role in controlling the use of new information and technology.3.In the future,humans may develop more“intelligent”needs.As a reference from history or to explore the preferred path for the future,there will also be a greater need to innovate and meet challenges.4.Studying high school history has entered the professional field.Through self-exploration,it can be transformed into life affairs and establish the concept and value of lifelong learning.5.In studying the“history of high school learning”,have new prospects for the future of education.Through professional knowledge such as“trend theory and causal hierarchy analysis”of futurology,pursue new horizons and visions,making future education full of hope and possibility.展开更多
According to the actual situation of the secondary lining of a expressway tunnel in Chongqing,this paper analyzed the specific reasons for lining exfoliation with corresponding test reports.According to this,a quick t...According to the actual situation of the secondary lining of a expressway tunnel in Chongqing,this paper analyzed the specific reasons for lining exfoliation with corresponding test reports.According to this,a quick treatment scheme for lining exfoliation is proposed,which can make the treatment timely and effective,and suggestions for treating similar diseases in tunnels are put forward,which can provide reference for similar projects.展开更多
This paper investigates the relationship between China’s fuel ethanol promotion plan and food security based on the interactions between the crude oil market, the fuel ethanol market and the grain market. Based on th...This paper investigates the relationship between China’s fuel ethanol promotion plan and food security based on the interactions between the crude oil market, the fuel ethanol market and the grain market. Based on the US West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude oil spot price and Chinese corn prices from January 2008 to May 2018, this paper applies Granger causality testing and a generalized impulse response function to explore the relationship between world crude oil prices and Chinese corn prices. The results show that crude oil prices are not the Granger cause of China’s corn prices, but changes in world crude oil prices will have a long-term positive impact on Chinese corn prices. Therefore, the Chinese government should pay attention to changes in crude oil prices when promoting fuel ethanol. Considering the conduction e ect between fuel ethanol and the food market, the government should also take some measures to ensure food security.展开更多
There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution...There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.展开更多
The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal f...The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.展开更多
The US Endangered Species Act is legislation with the power to limit human activities that may have deleterious effects on the viability of threatened and endangered species of fauna and flora. However, because most e...The US Endangered Species Act is legislation with the power to limit human activities that may have deleterious effects on the viability of threatened and endangered species of fauna and flora. However, because most endangered species face multiple threats, it is often unclear whether limiting specific activities will improve the likelihood of long-term survival, particularly when the relative importance of different stressors is uncertain. Wildlife managers responsible for protecting these species face the challenge of determining the optimal allocation of limited funds and personnel among risk management and conservation priorities, in the absence of a good understanding of the relative importance of these stressors. We present an analytical framework that can serve as a technical basis for evaluating multiple risks to endangered species. Predictive and retrospective causal analysis applications are considered. The former address proposed projects where the potential exists for adverse interaction between the project and an endangered species. The latter involve existing projects or products for which a determination is being or has been made concerning the threats posed to an endangered species. The causal analysis method described herein is a well-established procedure that is widely used in other scientific fields and offers a practical and logical process through which threats to endangered species can be assessed and recovery actions prioritized.展开更多
In this study, impact of inflation （WPI--Wholesale Price Index）, exchange rate, and interest rate on the production of red meat in Turkey was examined using the vector autoregressive （VAR） model. The model consist...In this study, impact of inflation （WPI--Wholesale Price Index）, exchange rate, and interest rate on the production of red meat in Turkey was examined using the vector autoregressive （VAR） model. The model consisting of variables of dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, beef, buffalo meat, mutton, and goat meat production amounts has been estimated for the period from 1981 to 2014. It has been detected that there is a tie among the dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and the amount of red meat production in Turkey. In order to determine the direction of this relation, Granger causality test was conducted. A one-way causal relation has been observed between： the goat meat production and dollar exchange rate; the buffalo meat production and the mutton production; and the beef production and the mutton production. To interpret VAR model, the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis was used. As a result of variance decomposition, it has been detected that explanatory power of changes in the variance of dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate in goat meat production amount is more than explanatory power of changes in the variances of mutton, beef, and buffalo meat variables.展开更多
Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors,so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the...Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors,so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market.Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test,Granger causality test and co-integration test.Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market,OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential.Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive,the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%,5.86%and 5.90%,respectively.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.82220108002 to F.C.,82273737 to R.Z.,82473728 to Y.W.)the US National Institutes of Health(Grant Nos.CA209414,HL060710,ES000002 to D.C.C.,CA209414,CA249096 to Y.L.)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD).R.Z.was partially supported by the Qing Lan Project of the Higher Education Institutions of Jiangsu Province and the Outstanding Young-Level Academic Leadership Training Program of Nanjing Medical University.
文摘Emerging evidence highlights the role of thyroid hormones in cancer,although findings are controversial.Research on thyroid-related traits in lung carcinogenesis is limited.Using UK Biobank data,we performed bidirectional Mendelian randomization(MR)to assess causal associations between lung cancer risk and thyroid dysfunction(hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism)or functional traits(free thyroxine[FT4]and normal-range thyroid-stimulating hormone[TSH]).Furthermore,in the smoking-behavior-stratified MR analysis,we evaluated the mediating effect of thyroid-related phenotypes on the association between smoking behaviors and lung cancer.We demonstrated significant associations between lung cancer risk and hypothyroidism(hazard ratio[HR]=1.14,95%confidence interval[CI]=1.03–1.26,P=0.009)and hyperthyroidism(HR=1.55,95%CI=1.29–1.87,P=1.90×10^(-6))in the UKB.Moreover,the MR analysis indicated a causal effect of thyroid dysfunction on lung cancer risk(ORinverse variance weighted[IVW]=1.09,95%CI=1.05–1.13,P=3.12×10^(-6)for hypothyroidism;ORIVW=1.08,95%CI=1.04–1.12,P=8.14×10^(-5)for hyperthyroidism).We found that FT4 levels were protective against lung cancer risk(ORIVW=0.93,95%CI=0.87–0.99,P=0.030).Additionally,the stratified MR analysis demonstrated distinct causal effects of thyroid dysfunction on lung cancer risk among smokers.Hyperthyroidism mediated the effect of smoking behaviors,especially the age of smoking initiation(17.66%mediated),on lung cancer risk.Thus,thyroid dysfunction phenotypes play causal roles in lung cancer development exclusively among smokers and act as mediators in the causal pathway from smoking to lung cancer.
文摘In a sustainable development context, the monitoring systems are essential to study the building energy performances. With the recent technology advances, these systems can be based on wireless sensor networks, where the energy efficiency is the main design challenge. To this end, most of the studies focus on low power Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols to reduce the overall energy consumption of a network. Nevertheless, the performances assessment of these protocols is generally not performed in a realistic way, and does not take into account the performances of the other layers of the OSI model. In this paper, we propose a cross-layer methodology to assess the real performances of a MAC protocol by taking into account the traffic volume, the synchronization losses and more particularly the physical layer performances through a Bit Error Rate (BER) criterion. The simulation results demonstrate clearly the physical layer impact on a sensor lifetime. Finally, the proposal of an energy efficient MAC protocol for a wireless sensor network dedicated to an application of building monitoring is proposed.
文摘An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or pentration in the receiver of micro turbojet engine casing,and the comparisons are also made with the results from the traditional fault tree analysis.Experimental results show two main advantages：（1）Quantitative analysis which is more reliable for the failure analysis in jet engines can be produced by the causality diagram analysis;（2）Graphical representation of causality diagram is easier to apply in real test cases and more effective for the safety assessment.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62173272)。
文摘Recognizing target intent is crucial for making decisions on the battlefield.However,the imperfect and ambiguous character of battlefield situations challenges the validity and causation analysis of classical intent recognition techniques.Facing with the challenge,a target intention causal analysis paradigm is proposed by combining with an Intervention Retrieval(IR)model and a Hybrid Intention Recognition(HIR)model.The target data acquired by the sensors are modelled as Basic Probability Assignments(BPAs)based on evidence theory to create uncertain datasets.Then,the HIR model is utilized to recognize intent for a tested sample from uncertain datasets.Finally,the intervention operator under the evidence structure is utilized to perform attribute intervention on the tested sample.Data retrieval is performed in the sample database based on the IR model to generate the intention distribution of the pseudo-intervention samples to analyze the causal effects of individual sample attributes.The simulation results demonstrate that our framework successfully identifies the target intention under the evidence structure and goes further to analyze the causal impact of sample attributes on the target intention.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 59677009) the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No.99061116)
文摘Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.
文摘Working at height is widespread across various industries,with frequent and hazardous falls occurring regularly.Such tasks are often linked to multifactorial issues,where the interplay of diverse factors leads to accidents that are challenging to control effectively.This study establishes an index system for the factors influencing falls from height by statistically analyzing 101 incidents,identifying 64 causative elements classified into four categories.These include 17 factors related to operator condition and behavior,13 concerning equipment and facility conditions,7 pertaining to site conditions,and 27 associated with production operations management.Utilizing the Apriori algorithm and Gephi software,the study mined the association rules of causal factors in falls from height and constructed their network diagram.By examining association rules with high support,confidence,and lift,the relationships between key causal factors leading to accidents are clarified,identifying critical operational control points and providing a scientific foundation for reducing the incidence of falls from height.Currently,China's standards related to working at height remain fragmented.This study lays the foundation for the development of comprehensive,systematic,generic safety management standards for working at height,satisfying the needs of the field.
基金Continuous Subject of Key Project of State Science and Technology in the Tenth Five-year Plan (2004BA601B01- 04-02)Project of Science and Technology in the Tenth Five-year Plan of Shandong Province (SD10503)
文摘In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block （a secondary tectonic unit in the North China） and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously correlative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction （VEC） model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61903345 and 61973287)。
文摘Modern industrial systems are usually in large scale,consisting of massive components and variables that form a complex system topology.Owing to the interconnections among devices,a fault may occur and propagate to exert widespread influences and lead to a variety of alarms.Obtaining the root causes of alarms is beneficial to the decision supports in making corrective alarm responses.Existing data-driven methods for alarm root cause analysis detect causal relations among alarms mainly based on historical alarm event data.To improve the accuracy,this paper proposes a causal fusion inference method for industrial alarm root cause analysis based on process topology and alarm events.A Granger causality inference method considering process topology is exploited to find out the causal relations among alarms.The topological nodes are used as the inputs of the model,and the alarm causal adjacency matrix between alarm variables is obtained by calculating the likelihood of the topological Hawkes process.The root cause is then obtained from the directed acyclic graph(DAG)among alarm variables.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulations based on both a numerical example and the Tennessee Eastman process(TEP)model.
基金Supported by Gansu Porvincinl Youth Scicnce Foudation
文摘The Causal relation and whole-part relation are the two fundamen-tal relations in economics.In this paper,on the basis of economic prob-lems analysis in practioce,some causal relation structures of economic sys-tems and fundamental rules for operations research are,at first,prop-osed.And then,a quotienting(simplifying)analysis approach of eco-nomic causal relations is presented and discussed in detail.At last,animprovement framework of system dynamics is proposed based on theviewpoint of generalized causal relations analysis.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82270649.
文摘BACKGROUND Liver cirrhosis is a progressive hepatic disease whose immunological basis has attracted increasing attention.However,it remains unclear whether a concrete causal association exists between immunocyte phenotypes and liver cirrhosis.AIM To explore the concrete causal relationships between immunocyte phenotypes and liver cirrhosis through a mendelian randomization(MR)study.METHODS Data on 731 immunocyte phenotypes were obtained from genome-wide assoc-iation studies.Liver cirrhosis data were derived from the Finn Gen dataset,which included 214403 individuals of European ancestry.We used inverse variable weighting as the primary analysis method to assess the causal relationship.Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy.RESULTS The MR analysis demonstrated that 11 immune cell phenotypes have a positive association with liver cirrhosis[P<0.05,odds ratio(OR)>1]and that 9 immu-nocyte phenotypes were negatively correlated with liver cirrhosis(P<0.05,OR<1).Liver cirrhosis was positively linked to 9 immune cell phenotypes(P<0.05,OR>1)and negatively linked to 10 immune cell phenotypes(P<0.05;OR<1).None of these associations showed heterogeneity or horizontally pleiotropy(P>0.05).CONCLUSION This bidirectional two-sample MR study demonstrated a concrete causal association between immunocyte phenotypes and liver cirrhosis.These findings offer new directions for the treatment of liver cirrhosis.
文摘After the 21st century,high school history learning will focus on teachers promoting the twelve-year state education.In recent years,in line with the changes in the new 108-year social curriculum,supporting strategies have been proposed:such as literacy orientation,inquiry and practice,learning process archives,and the structural direction of the controversial Chinese history into East Asian history.Historical learning has indeed had a great impact on the people’s national spiritual education and the development of historical consciousness in Taiwan’s education policy.This is the reason Taiwan’s Ministry of Education strives to improve students’historical literacy and connotation application abilities.When developing a learning policy,both external and internal learning factors need to be considered.The external aspect deals with the reasons for learning:Is learning for the purpose of using or accumulating historical wisdom in daily life to learn from the past and the present,on the other hand,to test the content of the course and the degree of absorption;or is it specifically for exams or other enlightenment purposes.The internal aspect involves those most affected by the policy:students and teachers.After studying and observing high school history learning policies for decades,some alternative future visions for history learning were found in the method of reflection on future research-the conclusion is that history is interestingly revitalized,and the preferred future is thematic history.According to the famous futurology scholar Sohail Inayatuallah’s proposal:the causal layering model.It helps understand how Taiwan’s historical policies operate.And how teachers and students on the front line respond to changes and take future actions.The key is to change the future:in the process of building an alternative future,whether the internal and external mix has changed or whether you want to try new things and expand your horizons.In fact,the difficulty of teaching lies in students’cooperation and conscious learning.Therefore,in the analysis of learning through alternative futures,is it possible to distinguish between internal and external situations and methods such as:1.Internal:Is education centered on teachers?Or is it student-centered?2.External:Does the Ministry of Education prioritize testing,or encourage teachers to adopt interactive communication and integrate education into the curriculum?Therefore,what is the function and inspiration of studying high school history and life?If thematic history teaching is used:teachers can use thematic learning methods to help students focus on causal relationships,the causes of turning points,or the evolution process of the beginning and end of events.This is more advantageous for testing based on the application topic,and it is easy to test how much understanding and understanding of history?Has an activating effect.By studying history in high school,using the“CLA(Causal layered analysis)”method of future studies,you can enter the stage of worldview exploration with the goal of improving professional depth and emotional level,and use it in your own understanding and utilization of history.Based on research,some insights into the prospects and thinking of learning history in high schools are provided:1.Facing the impact of declining birthrate,Taiwan needs a macro perspective to improve its future competitiveness and look forward to a new perspective on world history,using futuristic cause-and-effect level analysis to combine world changes with daily life applications.2.The study of history in high schools should go into a systematic construction:understand its cause-and-effect relationships and global trends,so teachers play a professional and future role in controlling the use of new information and technology.3.In the future,humans may develop more“intelligent”needs.As a reference from history or to explore the preferred path for the future,there will also be a greater need to innovate and meet challenges.4.Studying high school history has entered the professional field.Through self-exploration,it can be transformed into life affairs and establish the concept and value of lifelong learning.5.In studying the“history of high school learning”,have new prospects for the future of education.Through professional knowledge such as“trend theory and causal hierarchy analysis”of futurology,pursue new horizons and visions,making future education full of hope and possibility.
基金Special Project of Scientific and Technological Innovation for Social Undertakings and People's Livelihood Guarantee of Chongqing,China(The Dynamic Effect of Urban Hub Tunnel and Surrounding Environment and Green Construction Technology)(cstc2017shmsA30010)Special Project of National Key Research and Development Plan(Research on Key Technologies of Operation and Maintenance Safety of Typical Urban Traffic Infrastructure)(017YFC0806010)。
文摘According to the actual situation of the secondary lining of a expressway tunnel in Chongqing,this paper analyzed the specific reasons for lining exfoliation with corresponding test reports.According to this,a quick treatment scheme for lining exfoliation is proposed,which can make the treatment timely and effective,and suggestions for treating similar diseases in tunnels are put forward,which can provide reference for similar projects.
基金sponsored by MOE Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (Project No. 17YJC790107)sponsored by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Project No. 18BJY251)
文摘This paper investigates the relationship between China’s fuel ethanol promotion plan and food security based on the interactions between the crude oil market, the fuel ethanol market and the grain market. Based on the US West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude oil spot price and Chinese corn prices from January 2008 to May 2018, this paper applies Granger causality testing and a generalized impulse response function to explore the relationship between world crude oil prices and Chinese corn prices. The results show that crude oil prices are not the Granger cause of China’s corn prices, but changes in world crude oil prices will have a long-term positive impact on Chinese corn prices. Therefore, the Chinese government should pay attention to changes in crude oil prices when promoting fuel ethanol. Considering the conduction e ect between fuel ethanol and the food market, the government should also take some measures to ensure food security.
基金Under the auspices of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 20070420271, 20018801012)
文摘There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.
文摘The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.
文摘The US Endangered Species Act is legislation with the power to limit human activities that may have deleterious effects on the viability of threatened and endangered species of fauna and flora. However, because most endangered species face multiple threats, it is often unclear whether limiting specific activities will improve the likelihood of long-term survival, particularly when the relative importance of different stressors is uncertain. Wildlife managers responsible for protecting these species face the challenge of determining the optimal allocation of limited funds and personnel among risk management and conservation priorities, in the absence of a good understanding of the relative importance of these stressors. We present an analytical framework that can serve as a technical basis for evaluating multiple risks to endangered species. Predictive and retrospective causal analysis applications are considered. The former address proposed projects where the potential exists for adverse interaction between the project and an endangered species. The latter involve existing projects or products for which a determination is being or has been made concerning the threats posed to an endangered species. The causal analysis method described herein is a well-established procedure that is widely used in other scientific fields and offers a practical and logical process through which threats to endangered species can be assessed and recovery actions prioritized.
文摘In this study, impact of inflation （WPI--Wholesale Price Index）, exchange rate, and interest rate on the production of red meat in Turkey was examined using the vector autoregressive （VAR） model. The model consisting of variables of dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, beef, buffalo meat, mutton, and goat meat production amounts has been estimated for the period from 1981 to 2014. It has been detected that there is a tie among the dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and the amount of red meat production in Turkey. In order to determine the direction of this relation, Granger causality test was conducted. A one-way causal relation has been observed between： the goat meat production and dollar exchange rate; the buffalo meat production and the mutton production; and the beef production and the mutton production. To interpret VAR model, the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis was used. As a result of variance decomposition, it has been detected that explanatory power of changes in the variance of dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate in goat meat production amount is more than explanatory power of changes in the variances of mutton, beef, and buffalo meat variables.
文摘Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors,so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market.Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test,Granger causality test and co-integration test.Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market,OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential.Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive,the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%,5.86%and 5.90%,respectively.
