Cross-border e-commerce has progressively evolved with the deepening of economic globalization,and it now holds a significant place in the field of e-commerce.However,due to China’s late entry into the international ...Cross-border e-commerce has progressively evolved with the deepening of economic globalization,and it now holds a significant place in the field of e-commerce.However,due to China’s late entry into the international logistics supply chain,there are issues such as complex environment,uneven information technology,and disagreements on standards,resulting in certain cross-border e-commerce disadvantages in China.Therefore,in this context,this study analyzes the construction of international logistics supply chain management model from the perspective of cross-border e-commerce,so as to provide some reference for the development of China’s international logistics supply chain.展开更多
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy...In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.展开更多
The transportation and logistics sectors are major contributors to Greenhouse Gase(GHG)emissions.Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))from Light-Duty Vehicles(LDVs)is posing serious risks to air quality and public health.Understandi...The transportation and logistics sectors are major contributors to Greenhouse Gase(GHG)emissions.Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))from Light-Duty Vehicles(LDVs)is posing serious risks to air quality and public health.Understanding the extent of LDVs’impact on climate change and human well-being is crucial for informed decisionmaking and effective mitigation strategies.This study investigates the predictability of CO_(2)emissions from LDVs using a comprehensive dataset that includes vehicles from various manufacturers,their CO_(2)emission levels,and key influencing factors.Specifically,sixMachine Learning(ML)algorithms,ranging fromsimple linearmodels to complex non-linear models,were applied under identical conditions to ensure a fair comparison and their performance metrics were calculated.The obtained results showed a significant influence of variables such as engine size on CO_(2)emissions.Although the six algorithms have provided accurate forecasts,the Linear Regression(LR)model was found to be sufficient,achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)below 0.90%and a Coefficient of Determination(R2)exceeding 99.7%.These findings may contribute to a deeper understanding of LDVs’role in CO_(2)emissions and offer actionable insights for reducing their environmental impact.In fact,vehicle manufacturers can leverage these insights to target key emission-related factors,while policymakers and stakeholders in logistics and transportation can use the models to estimate the CO_(2)emissions of new vehicles before their market deployment or to project future emissions from current and expected LDV fleets.展开更多
The cross-border e-commerce further development, its development is facing more and more challenges and bottlenecks. Among them, the development of cross-border logistics is a key factor restricting the development of...The cross-border e-commerce further development, its development is facing more and more challenges and bottlenecks. Among them, the development of cross-border logistics is a key factor restricting the development of cross-border e-commerce. Due to cross-border logistics development lags behind the cross-border e-commerce, caused many not coordinated between them Article analyzes the current cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics synergy development research present situation. Combined with cross-border e-commerce with cross-border logistics development present situation and the bottleneck problem, by means of literature data collection and investigation, the cross-border e-commerce with cross-border emphatically analyzed the present situation an-d problems of the coordinated development of logistics. Series and put forward the improvement measures, to promote the coordinated development of cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics and subsequent research has import-ant significance.展开更多
The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce,especially since Chengdu was listed as an Integrated Pilot Zone for Cross-Border E-Commerce in 2016,has led to a rising trade value of agricultural products in the metr...The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce,especially since Chengdu was listed as an Integrated Pilot Zone for Cross-Border E-Commerce in 2016,has led to a rising trade value of agricultural products in the metropolis.This upward trend is also attributed to the China-Europe Railway Express and the Chengdu International Aviation Hub Integrated Functional Area,two infrastructure systems that have opened more international logistics channels for agricultural products in Sichuan province.However,the development of cross-border logistics has failed to respond to the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce for agricultural products.This problem has given rise to longer delivery cycles,higher costs,and reduced product quality,hindering the development of cross-border e-commerce for agricultural products.Currently,most research efforts are focused on selecting a logistics mode which has created an urgency is to establish a logistics system.To that end,we must utilize the opportunities and preferential policies brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative to advance the establishment of a cross-border logistics system for agricultural products,which will create more channels for selling Sichuan’s agricultural products overseas.This article analyzes the current situation of the cross-border logistics system for agricultural products produced by the province and studies the potential relationships between a logistics system and cross-border trade of agricultural products.It seeks to build a logistics system that meets the demands of cross-border transactions using economic theories focused on cross-border e-commerce and logistics.Such a logistic system will help shorten long delivery cycles,cut delivery costs,and guarantee the quality of agricultural products.Also,it can contribute to the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce of agricultural products and solve problems in developing the agricultural products logistics system of Sichuan province.展开更多
The business environment is an important index for measuring the international competitiveness of a country or region.Improving the business environment not only helps the logistics industry reduce costs and increase ...The business environment is an important index for measuring the international competitiveness of a country or region.Improving the business environment not only helps the logistics industry reduce costs and increase efficiency but also promotes the transformation and upgrading of the logistics sector.This paper focuses on the business environment of cross-border logistics enterprises in Harbin New District as the research object.It constructs the business environment index system of logistics enterprises in Harbin New District through empirical research using the subjective weighting method.The research data are then analyzed to identify the shortcomings in optimizing the business environment of cross-border logistics in Harbin New District.The paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions,aiming to provide a decision-making reference for promoting the high-quality development and all-round revitalization of Harbin New District.展开更多
The uncertainty of time, quantity and quality of recycling products leads tothe bad stability and flexibility of remanufacturing logistics networks, and general design onlycovered the minimizing logistics cost, thus, ...The uncertainty of time, quantity and quality of recycling products leads tothe bad stability and flexibility of remanufacturing logistics networks, and general design onlycovered the minimizing logistics cost, thus, robust design is presented here to solve theuncertainty. The mathematical model of remanufacturing logistics networks is built based onstochastic distribution of uncontrollable factors, and robust objectives are presented. Theintegration of mathematical simulation and design of experiment method is performed to do sensitiveanalysis. The influence of each factor and level on the system is investigated, and the main factorsand optimum combination are studied. The numbers of factors, level of each factor and designprocess of experiment are investigated as well. Finally, the process of robust design based ondesign of experiment is demonstrated by a detailed example.展开更多
In this paper,the multi-agent model about shop logistics is set up.This model has 8 agents:raw materials stock agent,process agent,testing agent,transition agent,production information agent,scheduling agent,process a...In this paper,the multi-agent model about shop logistics is set up.This model has 8 agents:raw materials stock agent,process agent,testing agent,transition agent,production information agent,scheduling agent,process agent and stock agent.The scheduling agent has three subagents:manager agent(MA),resource agent(RA)and part agent(PA).MA,PA and RA are communicating equally that guarantees agility of the whole MAS system.The part tasks pass between MA,RA and PA as an integer,which can guarantee the consistency of the data.We use a detailed example about shop logistics scheduling in a semiconductor company to explain the principle.In this example,we use two scheduling strategies:FCFS and SPT.The result data indicates that the average flow time and lingering ratio are changed using different strategy.It is proves that the multi-agent scheduling is useful.展开更多
The vehicle routing and scheduling (VRS) problem with multi-objective and multi-constraint is analyzed, considering the complexity of the modern logistics in city economy and daily life based on the system engineering...The vehicle routing and scheduling (VRS) problem with multi-objective and multi-constraint is analyzed, considering the complexity of the modern logistics in city economy and daily life based on the system engineering. The objective and constraint includes loading, the dispatch and arrival time, transportation conditions,total cost,etc. An information model and a mathematical model are built,and a method based on knowledge and biologic immunity is put forward for optimizing and evaluating the programs dimensions in vehicle routing and scheduling with multi-objective and multi-constraints. The proposed model and method are illustrated in a case study concerning a transport network, and the result shows that more optimization solutions can be easily obtained and the method is efficient and feasible. Comparing with the standard GA and the standard GA without time constraint,the computational time of the algorithm is less in this paper. And the probability of gaining optimal solution is bigger and the result is better under the condition of multi-constraint.展开更多
This paper has found out some important input factors of reverse logistics in manufacturing system throuth analysis and summary,and established four kinds of technological process control models of reverse logistics i...This paper has found out some important input factors of reverse logistics in manufacturing system throuth analysis and summary,and established four kinds of technological process control models of reverse logistics in manufacturing system according to different processing methods.These models embed each other that form a cubic control system of reverse logistics.展开更多
This paper takes the total yield of products that need refrigerated transport as the impact factors of transport aggregate of cold chain logistics,such as meat,aquatic products,quick-frozen noodle,fruits,vegetables,da...This paper takes the total yield of products that need refrigerated transport as the impact factors of transport aggregate of cold chain logistics,such as meat,aquatic products,quick-frozen noodle,fruits,vegetables,dairy,and medicine.Through selecting the consumption data of urban residents on transported products via cold chain in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2000 as sample,this paper establishes grey prediction model GM(1,1)of cold chain logistics demand and uses DPS7.05 software for test,to predict the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The results show that in the period 2010-2015,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province is 1151.5891,1185.1366,1219.6613,1255.1918,1291.7573,1329.3881 t respectively;in the period 2005-2010,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province increases at annual growth rate of 3.9%;in the period 2011-2015,the growth rate declines to some extent,increasing slowly at rate of 2.9%.展开更多
Bangladesh has a denser population in comparison with many other countries. Though the rate of population increase has been regarded as a concerning issue, estimation of the population instability in the upcoming year...Bangladesh has a denser population in comparison with many other countries. Though the rate of population increase has been regarded as a concerning issue, estimation of the population instability in the upcoming years may be useful for national planning. To predict Bangladesh’s future population, this study compares the estimated populations of two popular population models, the Malthusian and the logistic population models, with the country’s census population published by BBS. We also tried to find out which model gives a better approximation for forecasting the past, present, and future population between these two models.展开更多
目的构建留守与非留守中学生自伤的风险预测模型,为制定针对性的干预措施提供科学依据。方法2021年9月―2023年6月采用多阶段抽样方法,在留守儿童分布相对集中的6个省份中抽取14623名<18岁的中学生(留守8471名,非留守6152名)作为研...目的构建留守与非留守中学生自伤的风险预测模型,为制定针对性的干预措施提供科学依据。方法2021年9月―2023年6月采用多阶段抽样方法,在留守儿童分布相对集中的6个省份中抽取14623名<18岁的中学生(留守8471名,非留守6152名)作为研究对象。通过问卷调查收集研究对象的一般情况、创伤性事件和自伤发生情况。分析不同特征留守与非留守中学生自伤的发生情况。采用R 4.3.0软件按照7∶3的比例分别将留守与非留守中学生随机划分为训练集与测试集,构建logistic回归分析模型和随机森林模型,通过受试者工作特征曲线、灵敏度、特异度等指标评估模型性能。结果中学生自伤总体发生率为25.7%,留守中学生自伤发生率高于非留守中学生(χ^(2)=59.266,P<0.001)。Logistic回归分析模型分析结果显示,留守与非留守中学生预测模型训练集的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)分别为0.745和0.756,测试集的AUC分别为0.721和0.726,Hosmer-Lemshow拟合优度检验P>0.05。随机森林模型中,留守中学生自伤的主要预测因素为经历创伤性事件、家庭氛围、和父亲/母亲关系等,模型的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F1指数分别为0.740、0.591、0.822、0.470和0.779,Brier分数为0.212,训练集和测试集的AUC分别为0.800和0.729。非留守中学生则以经历创伤性事件、家庭氛围、父母感情状况等为主,模型的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F1指数分别为0.785、0.519、0.850、0.411和0.816,Brier分数为0.188,训练集和测试集的AUC分别为0.845和0.724。结论留守中学生自伤风险高于非留守中学生,二者的预测因素虽有不同,但存在高度重叠,其中创伤经历和家庭因素是关键预测变量。两种模型对自伤的识别能力良好,但随机森林模型综合性能更优,本研究构建的预测模型可为早期识别高危人群提供科学依据。展开更多
This study proposed a new and more flexible S-shaped rock damage evolution model from a phenomenological perspective based on an improved Logistic function to describe the characteristics of the rock strain softening ...This study proposed a new and more flexible S-shaped rock damage evolution model from a phenomenological perspective based on an improved Logistic function to describe the characteristics of the rock strain softening and damage process.Simultaneously,it established a constitutive model capable of describing the entire process of rock pre-peak compaction and post-peak strain softening deformation,considering the nonlinear effects of the initial compaction stage of rocks,combined with damage mechanics theory and effective medium theory.In addition,this research verified the rationality of the constructed damage constitutive model using results from uniaxial and conventional triaxial compression tests on Miluo granite,yellow sandstone,mudstone,and glutenite.The results indicate that based on the improved Logistic function,the theoretical damage model accurately describes the entire evolution of damage characteristics during rock compression deformation,from maintenance through gradual onset,accelerated development to deceleration and termination,in a simple and unified expression.At the same time,the constructed constitutive model can accurately simulate the stress-strain process of different rock types under uniaxial and conventional triaxial compression,and the theoretical model curve closely aligns with experimental data.Compared to existing constitutive models,the proposed model has significant advantages.The damage model parameters a,r and β have clear physical meanings and interact competitively,where the three parameters collectively determine the shape of the theoretical stress−strain curve.展开更多
BACKGROUND Aortic adverse remodeling remains a critical complication following thoracic endovascular aortic repair(TEVAR)for Stanford type B aortic dissection(TBAD),significantly impacting long-term survival.Accurate ...BACKGROUND Aortic adverse remodeling remains a critical complication following thoracic endovascular aortic repair(TEVAR)for Stanford type B aortic dissection(TBAD),significantly impacting long-term survival.Accurate risk prediction is essential for optimized clinical management.AIM To develop and validate a logistic regression-based risk prediction model for aortic adverse remodeling following TEVAR in patients with TBAD.METHODS This retrospective observational cohort study analyzed 140 TBAD patients undergoing TEVAR at a tertiary center(2019–2024).Based on European guidelines,patients were categorized into adverse remodeling(aortic growth rate>2.9 mm/year,n=45)and favorable remodeling groups(n=95).Comprehensive variables(clinical/imaging/surgical)were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression to develop a predictive model.Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve(AUC)and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests.RESULTS Multivariable analysis identified several strong independent predictors of negative aortic remodeling.Larger false lumen diameter at the primary entry tear[odds ratio(OR):1.561,95%CI:1.197–2.035;P=0.001]and patency of the false lumen(OR:5.639,95%CI:4.372-8.181;P=0.004)were significant risk factors.False lumen involvement extending to the thoracoabdominal aorta was identified as the strongest predictor,significantly increasing the risk of adverse remodeling(OR:11.751,95%CI:9.841-15.612;P=0.001).Conversely,false lumen involvement confined to the thoracic aorta demonstrated a significant protective effect(OR:0.925,95%CI:0.614–0.831;P=0.015).The prediction model exhibited excellent discrimination(AUC=0.968)and calibration(Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.824).CONCLUSION This validated risk prediction model identifies aortic adverse remodeling with high accuracy using routinely available clinical parameters.False lumen involvement thoracoabdominal aorta is the strongest predictor(11.751-fold increased risk).The tool enables preoperative risk stratification to guide tailored TEVAR strategies and improve long-term outcomes.展开更多
文摘Cross-border e-commerce has progressively evolved with the deepening of economic globalization,and it now holds a significant place in the field of e-commerce.However,due to China’s late entry into the international logistics supply chain,there are issues such as complex environment,uneven information technology,and disagreements on standards,resulting in certain cross-border e-commerce disadvantages in China.Therefore,in this context,this study analyzes the construction of international logistics supply chain management model from the perspective of cross-border e-commerce,so as to provide some reference for the development of China’s international logistics supply chain.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261018)Universities Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Data Mining in Guizhou Province(2023013)。
文摘In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.
基金Deputyship for Research&Innovation,Ministry of Education in Saudi Arabia,project number MoE-IF-UJ-R2-22-20772-1.
文摘The transportation and logistics sectors are major contributors to Greenhouse Gase(GHG)emissions.Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))from Light-Duty Vehicles(LDVs)is posing serious risks to air quality and public health.Understanding the extent of LDVs’impact on climate change and human well-being is crucial for informed decisionmaking and effective mitigation strategies.This study investigates the predictability of CO_(2)emissions from LDVs using a comprehensive dataset that includes vehicles from various manufacturers,their CO_(2)emission levels,and key influencing factors.Specifically,sixMachine Learning(ML)algorithms,ranging fromsimple linearmodels to complex non-linear models,were applied under identical conditions to ensure a fair comparison and their performance metrics were calculated.The obtained results showed a significant influence of variables such as engine size on CO_(2)emissions.Although the six algorithms have provided accurate forecasts,the Linear Regression(LR)model was found to be sufficient,achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)below 0.90%and a Coefficient of Determination(R2)exceeding 99.7%.These findings may contribute to a deeper understanding of LDVs’role in CO_(2)emissions and offer actionable insights for reducing their environmental impact.In fact,vehicle manufacturers can leverage these insights to target key emission-related factors,while policymakers and stakeholders in logistics and transportation can use the models to estimate the CO_(2)emissions of new vehicles before their market deployment or to project future emissions from current and expected LDV fleets.
文摘The cross-border e-commerce further development, its development is facing more and more challenges and bottlenecks. Among them, the development of cross-border logistics is a key factor restricting the development of cross-border e-commerce. Due to cross-border logistics development lags behind the cross-border e-commerce, caused many not coordinated between them Article analyzes the current cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics synergy development research present situation. Combined with cross-border e-commerce with cross-border logistics development present situation and the bottleneck problem, by means of literature data collection and investigation, the cross-border e-commerce with cross-border emphatically analyzed the present situation an-d problems of the coordinated development of logistics. Series and put forward the improvement measures, to promote the coordinated development of cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics and subsequent research has import-ant significance.
文摘The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce,especially since Chengdu was listed as an Integrated Pilot Zone for Cross-Border E-Commerce in 2016,has led to a rising trade value of agricultural products in the metropolis.This upward trend is also attributed to the China-Europe Railway Express and the Chengdu International Aviation Hub Integrated Functional Area,two infrastructure systems that have opened more international logistics channels for agricultural products in Sichuan province.However,the development of cross-border logistics has failed to respond to the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce for agricultural products.This problem has given rise to longer delivery cycles,higher costs,and reduced product quality,hindering the development of cross-border e-commerce for agricultural products.Currently,most research efforts are focused on selecting a logistics mode which has created an urgency is to establish a logistics system.To that end,we must utilize the opportunities and preferential policies brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative to advance the establishment of a cross-border logistics system for agricultural products,which will create more channels for selling Sichuan’s agricultural products overseas.This article analyzes the current situation of the cross-border logistics system for agricultural products produced by the province and studies the potential relationships between a logistics system and cross-border trade of agricultural products.It seeks to build a logistics system that meets the demands of cross-border transactions using economic theories focused on cross-border e-commerce and logistics.Such a logistic system will help shorten long delivery cycles,cut delivery costs,and guarantee the quality of agricultural products.Also,it can contribute to the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce of agricultural products and solve problems in developing the agricultural products logistics system of Sichuan province.
基金Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project“Study on the Construction and Operation of Government Credit Evaluation System to Optimize the Business Legal Environment”(Project Number 21FXD260)。
文摘The business environment is an important index for measuring the international competitiveness of a country or region.Improving the business environment not only helps the logistics industry reduce costs and increase efficiency but also promotes the transformation and upgrading of the logistics sector.This paper focuses on the business environment of cross-border logistics enterprises in Harbin New District as the research object.It constructs the business environment index system of logistics enterprises in Harbin New District through empirical research using the subjective weighting method.The research data are then analyzed to identify the shortcomings in optimizing the business environment of cross-border logistics in Harbin New District.The paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions,aiming to provide a decision-making reference for promoting the high-quality development and all-round revitalization of Harbin New District.
基金This project is supported by Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai, China (No. 02ZH14060).
文摘The uncertainty of time, quantity and quality of recycling products leads tothe bad stability and flexibility of remanufacturing logistics networks, and general design onlycovered the minimizing logistics cost, thus, robust design is presented here to solve theuncertainty. The mathematical model of remanufacturing logistics networks is built based onstochastic distribution of uncontrollable factors, and robust objectives are presented. Theintegration of mathematical simulation and design of experiment method is performed to do sensitiveanalysis. The influence of each factor and level on the system is investigated, and the main factorsand optimum combination are studied. The numbers of factors, level of each factor and designprocess of experiment are investigated as well. Finally, the process of robust design based ondesign of experiment is demonstrated by a detailed example.
基金Supported by the Zhejiang Province Science Foundation of China(M703022)
文摘In this paper,the multi-agent model about shop logistics is set up.This model has 8 agents:raw materials stock agent,process agent,testing agent,transition agent,production information agent,scheduling agent,process agent and stock agent.The scheduling agent has three subagents:manager agent(MA),resource agent(RA)and part agent(PA).MA,PA and RA are communicating equally that guarantees agility of the whole MAS system.The part tasks pass between MA,RA and PA as an integer,which can guarantee the consistency of the data.We use a detailed example about shop logistics scheduling in a semiconductor company to explain the principle.In this example,we use two scheduling strategies:FCFS and SPT.The result data indicates that the average flow time and lingering ratio are changed using different strategy.It is proves that the multi-agent scheduling is useful.
基金National natural science foundation (No:70371040)
文摘The vehicle routing and scheduling (VRS) problem with multi-objective and multi-constraint is analyzed, considering the complexity of the modern logistics in city economy and daily life based on the system engineering. The objective and constraint includes loading, the dispatch and arrival time, transportation conditions,total cost,etc. An information model and a mathematical model are built,and a method based on knowledge and biologic immunity is put forward for optimizing and evaluating the programs dimensions in vehicle routing and scheduling with multi-objective and multi-constraints. The proposed model and method are illustrated in a case study concerning a transport network, and the result shows that more optimization solutions can be easily obtained and the method is efficient and feasible. Comparing with the standard GA and the standard GA without time constraint,the computational time of the algorithm is less in this paper. And the probability of gaining optimal solution is bigger and the result is better under the condition of multi-constraint.
文摘This paper has found out some important input factors of reverse logistics in manufacturing system throuth analysis and summary,and established four kinds of technological process control models of reverse logistics in manufacturing system according to different processing methods.These models embed each other that form a cubic control system of reverse logistics.
基金Supporte by College Philosophical Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Provincial Department of Education in 2009(09SJB790008)Science and Technology Support Project of Huaian City in 2009(HAS2009045-1)Funds from Huaian Municipal Bureau of Communications
文摘This paper takes the total yield of products that need refrigerated transport as the impact factors of transport aggregate of cold chain logistics,such as meat,aquatic products,quick-frozen noodle,fruits,vegetables,dairy,and medicine.Through selecting the consumption data of urban residents on transported products via cold chain in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2000 as sample,this paper establishes grey prediction model GM(1,1)of cold chain logistics demand and uses DPS7.05 software for test,to predict the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The results show that in the period 2010-2015,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province is 1151.5891,1185.1366,1219.6613,1255.1918,1291.7573,1329.3881 t respectively;in the period 2005-2010,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province increases at annual growth rate of 3.9%;in the period 2011-2015,the growth rate declines to some extent,increasing slowly at rate of 2.9%.
文摘Bangladesh has a denser population in comparison with many other countries. Though the rate of population increase has been regarded as a concerning issue, estimation of the population instability in the upcoming years may be useful for national planning. To predict Bangladesh’s future population, this study compares the estimated populations of two popular population models, the Malthusian and the logistic population models, with the country’s census population published by BBS. We also tried to find out which model gives a better approximation for forecasting the past, present, and future population between these two models.
文摘目的构建留守与非留守中学生自伤的风险预测模型,为制定针对性的干预措施提供科学依据。方法2021年9月―2023年6月采用多阶段抽样方法,在留守儿童分布相对集中的6个省份中抽取14623名<18岁的中学生(留守8471名,非留守6152名)作为研究对象。通过问卷调查收集研究对象的一般情况、创伤性事件和自伤发生情况。分析不同特征留守与非留守中学生自伤的发生情况。采用R 4.3.0软件按照7∶3的比例分别将留守与非留守中学生随机划分为训练集与测试集,构建logistic回归分析模型和随机森林模型,通过受试者工作特征曲线、灵敏度、特异度等指标评估模型性能。结果中学生自伤总体发生率为25.7%,留守中学生自伤发生率高于非留守中学生(χ^(2)=59.266,P<0.001)。Logistic回归分析模型分析结果显示,留守与非留守中学生预测模型训练集的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)分别为0.745和0.756,测试集的AUC分别为0.721和0.726,Hosmer-Lemshow拟合优度检验P>0.05。随机森林模型中,留守中学生自伤的主要预测因素为经历创伤性事件、家庭氛围、和父亲/母亲关系等,模型的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F1指数分别为0.740、0.591、0.822、0.470和0.779,Brier分数为0.212,训练集和测试集的AUC分别为0.800和0.729。非留守中学生则以经历创伤性事件、家庭氛围、父母感情状况等为主,模型的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F1指数分别为0.785、0.519、0.850、0.411和0.816,Brier分数为0.188,训练集和测试集的AUC分别为0.845和0.724。结论留守中学生自伤风险高于非留守中学生,二者的预测因素虽有不同,但存在高度重叠,其中创伤经历和家庭因素是关键预测变量。两种模型对自伤的识别能力良好,但随机森林模型综合性能更优,本研究构建的预测模型可为早期识别高危人群提供科学依据。
基金Project(52074299)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2023JCCXSB02,BBJ2024083)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China。
文摘This study proposed a new and more flexible S-shaped rock damage evolution model from a phenomenological perspective based on an improved Logistic function to describe the characteristics of the rock strain softening and damage process.Simultaneously,it established a constitutive model capable of describing the entire process of rock pre-peak compaction and post-peak strain softening deformation,considering the nonlinear effects of the initial compaction stage of rocks,combined with damage mechanics theory and effective medium theory.In addition,this research verified the rationality of the constructed damage constitutive model using results from uniaxial and conventional triaxial compression tests on Miluo granite,yellow sandstone,mudstone,and glutenite.The results indicate that based on the improved Logistic function,the theoretical damage model accurately describes the entire evolution of damage characteristics during rock compression deformation,from maintenance through gradual onset,accelerated development to deceleration and termination,in a simple and unified expression.At the same time,the constructed constitutive model can accurately simulate the stress-strain process of different rock types under uniaxial and conventional triaxial compression,and the theoretical model curve closely aligns with experimental data.Compared to existing constitutive models,the proposed model has significant advantages.The damage model parameters a,r and β have clear physical meanings and interact competitively,where the three parameters collectively determine the shape of the theoretical stress−strain curve.
基金Supported by Zhangjiajie"Xiao He(Young Talent)"Project,No.2024XHRC03Jishou University School-Level Research Project.
文摘BACKGROUND Aortic adverse remodeling remains a critical complication following thoracic endovascular aortic repair(TEVAR)for Stanford type B aortic dissection(TBAD),significantly impacting long-term survival.Accurate risk prediction is essential for optimized clinical management.AIM To develop and validate a logistic regression-based risk prediction model for aortic adverse remodeling following TEVAR in patients with TBAD.METHODS This retrospective observational cohort study analyzed 140 TBAD patients undergoing TEVAR at a tertiary center(2019–2024).Based on European guidelines,patients were categorized into adverse remodeling(aortic growth rate>2.9 mm/year,n=45)and favorable remodeling groups(n=95).Comprehensive variables(clinical/imaging/surgical)were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression to develop a predictive model.Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve(AUC)and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests.RESULTS Multivariable analysis identified several strong independent predictors of negative aortic remodeling.Larger false lumen diameter at the primary entry tear[odds ratio(OR):1.561,95%CI:1.197–2.035;P=0.001]and patency of the false lumen(OR:5.639,95%CI:4.372-8.181;P=0.004)were significant risk factors.False lumen involvement extending to the thoracoabdominal aorta was identified as the strongest predictor,significantly increasing the risk of adverse remodeling(OR:11.751,95%CI:9.841-15.612;P=0.001).Conversely,false lumen involvement confined to the thoracic aorta demonstrated a significant protective effect(OR:0.925,95%CI:0.614–0.831;P=0.015).The prediction model exhibited excellent discrimination(AUC=0.968)and calibration(Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.824).CONCLUSION This validated risk prediction model identifies aortic adverse remodeling with high accuracy using routinely available clinical parameters.False lumen involvement thoracoabdominal aorta is the strongest predictor(11.751-fold increased risk).The tool enables preoperative risk stratification to guide tailored TEVAR strategies and improve long-term outcomes.
