Ⅰ.IntroductionSince 1995,six Asian and European countries(Sweden,Italy,Latvia,Poland,Mongolia andKyrgyz Republic)have introduced variants of an in-novative new defined contribution(DC)security
To develop a sound ozone（O_3） pollution control strategy,it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O_3.Using the ＂Sh...To develop a sound ozone（O_3） pollution control strategy,it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O_3.Using the ＂Shunde＂ city as a pilot summer case study,we apply an innovative response surface modeling（RSM） methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality（CMAQ） modeling simulations to identify the O_3 regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O_3 impacts of volatile organic compound（VOC） control strategy.Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O_3 polluted city.The ＂Jiangmen＂ city,as the main upper wind area during July 2014,its VOCs and nitrogen oxides（NO_x） emissions make up the largest contribution（9.06%）.On the contrary,the contribution from local（Shunde） emission is lowest（6.35%） among the seven neighbor regions.The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde.The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO_x control could slightly increase the ground O_3 under low（10.00%） and medium（40.00%）reduction ratios,while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O_3 under the high NO_x abatement ratio（75.00%）.The real-time assessment of O_3 impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta（PRD） shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O_3 concentration in Shunde.展开更多
Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and properties.The best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide h...Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and properties.The best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide hazard maps and make them available to the public in advance of an earthquake.Future construction can then be built according to the level of hazard and existing structures can be retrofit as necessary.During recent years various approaches have been made to develop landslide hazard maps using statistical analysis or physical models.However,these methods have limitations.This study introduces a new GIS-based approach,using the contributing weight model,to evaluate the hazard of seismically-induced landslides.In this study,the city and surrounding area of Dujiangyan was selected as the research area because of its moderate-high seismic activity.The parameters incorporated into the model that related to the probability of landslide occurrence were:slope gradient,slope aspect,geomorphology,lithology,base level,surface roughness,earthquake intensity,fault proximity,drainage proximity,and road proximity.The parameters were converted into raster data format with a resolution of 25×25m2 pixels.Analysis of the GIS correlations shows that the highest earthquake-induced landslide hazard areas are mainly in the hills and in some of the moderately steep mountainous areas of central Dujiangyan.The highest hazard zone covers an area of 11.1% of the study area,and the density distribution of seismically-induced landslides was 3.025/km2 from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The moderately hazardous areas are mainly distributed within the moderately steep mountainous regions of the northern and southeastern parts of the study area and the hills of the northeastern part;covering 32.0% of the study area and with a density distribution of 2.123/km2 resulting from the Wenchuan earthquake.The lowest hazard areas are mainly distributed in the topographically flat plain in the northeastern part and some of the relatively gently slopes in the moderately steep mountainous areas of the northern part of Dujiangyan and the surrounding area.The lowest hazard areas cover 56.9% of the study area and exhibited landslide densities of 0.941/km2 and less from the Wenchuan earthquake.The quality of the hazard map was validated using a comparison with the distribution of landslides that were cataloged as occurring from the Wenchuan earthquake.43.1% of the study area consists of high and moderate hazardous zones,and these regions include 83.5% of landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake.The successful analysis shows that the contributing weight model can be effective for earthquake-triggered landslide hazard appraisal.The model's results can provide the basis for risk management and regional planning is.展开更多
Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic ...Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.展开更多
The group solubility parameter （GSP） model was used to analyze the liquid-liquid equilibrium （LLE） of ternary and quaternary systems. The GSP parameters are divided into four dimensions representing the four major...The group solubility parameter （GSP） model was used to analyze the liquid-liquid equilibrium （LLE） of ternary and quaternary systems. The GSP parameters are divided into four dimensions representing the four major intermolecular forces. The values of the parameters were determined by regression using the nonlinear SIMPLEX optimization method to fit the LLE data of 548 ternary and 26 quaternary systems selected from the literature. LLE predictions of 8 ternary systems were then made using the fit parameters. Comparison of the results with predictions using the modified UNIFAC model shows that the GSP model has less adjustable parameters to achieve a similar accuracy and that the parameter values are easily acquired by analysis of available data.展开更多
A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contrib...A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.展开更多
文摘Ⅰ.IntroductionSince 1995,six Asian and European countries(Sweden,Italy,Latvia,Poland,Mongolia andKyrgyz Republic)have introduced variants of an in-novative new defined contribution(DC)security
基金Financial support for this work is provided by the Shunde Environment ProtectionTransportation and Urban Administration Bureau(no.0851-1361FS02CL51)+5 种基金the Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Plan Projects(no.2014A050503019)Guangzhou Environmental Protection Bureau(no.x2hjB2150020)supported by the funding of State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complexthe project of Atmospheric Haze Collaboration Control Technology Design(no.XDB05030400)from Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Special Program for Applied Research on Super Computation of the NSFC-Guangdong Joint Fund(U1501501)(the second phase)the Guangdong Provincial Engineering and Technology Research Center for Environmental Risk Prevention and Emergency Disposal(no.b2152120)
文摘To develop a sound ozone（O_3） pollution control strategy,it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O_3.Using the ＂Shunde＂ city as a pilot summer case study,we apply an innovative response surface modeling（RSM） methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality（CMAQ） modeling simulations to identify the O_3 regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O_3 impacts of volatile organic compound（VOC） control strategy.Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O_3 polluted city.The ＂Jiangmen＂ city,as the main upper wind area during July 2014,its VOCs and nitrogen oxides（NO_x） emissions make up the largest contribution（9.06%）.On the contrary,the contribution from local（Shunde） emission is lowest（6.35%） among the seven neighbor regions.The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde.The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO_x control could slightly increase the ground O_3 under low（10.00%） and medium（40.00%）reduction ratios,while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O_3 under the high NO_x abatement ratio（75.00%）.The real-time assessment of O_3 impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta（PRD） shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O_3 concentration in Shunde.
基金supported by the 973 Program of China (Grant No.2008CB425802)the International Cooperation Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2007DFA21150 and 2009DFB20196)
文摘Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and properties.The best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide hazard maps and make them available to the public in advance of an earthquake.Future construction can then be built according to the level of hazard and existing structures can be retrofit as necessary.During recent years various approaches have been made to develop landslide hazard maps using statistical analysis or physical models.However,these methods have limitations.This study introduces a new GIS-based approach,using the contributing weight model,to evaluate the hazard of seismically-induced landslides.In this study,the city and surrounding area of Dujiangyan was selected as the research area because of its moderate-high seismic activity.The parameters incorporated into the model that related to the probability of landslide occurrence were:slope gradient,slope aspect,geomorphology,lithology,base level,surface roughness,earthquake intensity,fault proximity,drainage proximity,and road proximity.The parameters were converted into raster data format with a resolution of 25×25m2 pixels.Analysis of the GIS correlations shows that the highest earthquake-induced landslide hazard areas are mainly in the hills and in some of the moderately steep mountainous areas of central Dujiangyan.The highest hazard zone covers an area of 11.1% of the study area,and the density distribution of seismically-induced landslides was 3.025/km2 from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The moderately hazardous areas are mainly distributed within the moderately steep mountainous regions of the northern and southeastern parts of the study area and the hills of the northeastern part;covering 32.0% of the study area and with a density distribution of 2.123/km2 resulting from the Wenchuan earthquake.The lowest hazard areas are mainly distributed in the topographically flat plain in the northeastern part and some of the relatively gently slopes in the moderately steep mountainous areas of the northern part of Dujiangyan and the surrounding area.The lowest hazard areas cover 56.9% of the study area and exhibited landslide densities of 0.941/km2 and less from the Wenchuan earthquake.The quality of the hazard map was validated using a comparison with the distribution of landslides that were cataloged as occurring from the Wenchuan earthquake.43.1% of the study area consists of high and moderate hazardous zones,and these regions include 83.5% of landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake.The successful analysis shows that the contributing weight model can be effective for earthquake-triggered landslide hazard appraisal.The model's results can provide the basis for risk management and regional planning is.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB956203)the China Meteorological Administration R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306027)+1 种基金the Open Research Fund Program of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province (Grant No. PAEKL-2015-C1)the National Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41405090)
文摘Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.
文摘The group solubility parameter （GSP） model was used to analyze the liquid-liquid equilibrium （LLE） of ternary and quaternary systems. The GSP parameters are divided into four dimensions representing the four major intermolecular forces. The values of the parameters were determined by regression using the nonlinear SIMPLEX optimization method to fit the LLE data of 548 ternary and 26 quaternary systems selected from the literature. LLE predictions of 8 ternary systems were then made using the fit parameters. Comparison of the results with predictions using the modified UNIFAC model shows that the GSP model has less adjustable parameters to achieve a similar accuracy and that the parameter values are easily acquired by analysis of available data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41306029)+3 种基金the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China (Grant Nos. 2013T01 & 2014G25)the International Cooperation Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2011DFA20970)supported by the Transport Ocean Project (Grant No. 2015ASKJ01)Ao-Shan Talent Program
文摘A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.
