The comprehensive risk analysis of storm surge flood is vital to the safety management of sea embank- ment, the scientific assessment of storm surge disaster and the improvement of emergent treatment in storm surge ha...The comprehensive risk analysis of storm surge flood is vital to the safety management of sea embank- ment, the scientific assessment of storm surge disaster and the improvement of emergent treatment in storm surge haz- ard. Based on the research of disaster-causing, disaster-pregnant and disaster-bearing factors, the influencing factors of storm surge risk are concluded to be flood natural risk, embankment position, embankment width and height. The membership degree of the factors of stoma surge risk is firstly determined by storm surge flood evolution based on WebGIS, and the comprehensive risk membership and risk grade of each influencing factor are obtained. Then the effects of a single factor on comprehensive risk and sensitivity analysis are discussed, and the storm surge flood risk map is obtained. Finally, the storm surge of Tianjin Binhai New Area is taken as a case. The results show that the in- fluencing degree of the factors on the comprehensive risk membership is in decreasing order of flood natural risk, em- bankment position, embankment width and height. The flood risk map of the case is drawn, which is useful to decrease losses caused by storm surge disaster.展开更多
Climate change severely challenges our ecosystem and society,affecting urban residents’socioeconomic activities.Thus,assessing severe weather risk is crucial for evaluating urban sustainability;understanding trends,c...Climate change severely challenges our ecosystem and society,affecting urban residents’socioeconomic activities.Thus,assessing severe weather risk is crucial for evaluating urban sustainability;understanding trends,causes,and impacts on socioeconomic development;and supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)13.Using meteorological data from 1980 to 2020,we investigate five disaster-causing severe weather events in China and construct a comprehensive index of extreme climate risk(CIECR)at the county,city,province,and national levels.The CIECR can identify high-risk regions and primary severe weather events and provide early warnings.We empirically test the impact of extreme climate risks on agricultural production,industrial structure,and labor employment.The results show high risks in Xinjiang,northern Inner Mongolia,and southern regions,with high temperatures,low temperatures,and high winds as the leading risks.At the national level,the extreme climate risk fluctuates,indicating climate warming.While risks reduce agricultural production and employment,they promote modern agriculture,industrial production,and urbanization.The novelty of the study lies in its development of the county-level CIECR,which can capture heterogeneity characteristics and provide microdata support for urban climate change research and efforts toward SDG 13.This study aids in mitigating climate risks;responding to climate change;and comprehensively analyzing the causes,trends,and impacts of extreme climate risks.展开更多
Literature lacked in providing a comprehensive research on heavy metal detection in aquatic, biological and sedimentary states of rivers. The present study was imparted with all these three components of the river. He...Literature lacked in providing a comprehensive research on heavy metal detection in aquatic, biological and sedimentary states of rivers. The present study was imparted with all these three components of the river. Heavy metal toxicity or pollution index was used as a tool for ecological risk assessment by considering the single state studies conducted by many researchers. An intensive ecological risk assessment model was constructed and heavy metals were indicated as a serious threat to the environment. The model was applied to determining five toxic heavy metals in three states of the Songhua River. According to the ecological risk index, heavy metal pollution in three phases was categorized as aquatic〉biological〉sedimentary, while the overall descending order of heavy metal ecological risk index was as Cd〉Hg〉As〉Pb〉Cr. Cd and Hg were selected as the priority pollutants of Songhua River.展开更多
This study aimed to assess the role of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network （NCCN） risk classification in predicting biochemical recurrence （BCR） after radical prostatectomy （RP） in Chinese prostate cancer ...This study aimed to assess the role of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network （NCCN） risk classification in predicting biochemical recurrence （BCR） after radical prostatectomy （RP） in Chinese prostate cancer patients. We included a consecutive cohort of 385 patients with prostate cancer who underwent RP at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center （Shanghai, China） from March 2011 to December 2014. Gleason grade groups were applied at analysis according to the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology Consensus. Risk groups were stratified according to the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology： Prostate Cancer version 1, 2017. All 385 patients were divided into BCR and non-BCR groups. The clinicopathological characteristics were compared using an independent sample t-test, Chi-squared test, and Fisher＇s exact test. BCR-free survival was compared using the log-rank test and multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis. During median follow-up of 48 months （range： 1-78 months）, 31 （8.05%） patients experienced BCR. The BCR group had higher prostate-specific antigen level at diagnosis （46.54 ± 39.58 ng m1-1 vs 21.02 ± 21.06 ng ml-1, P= 0.001）, more advanced pT stage （P= 0.002）, and higher pN1 rate （P〈 0.001）. NCCN risk classification was a significant predictor of BCR {P = 0.0006） and BCR-free survival （P = 0.003） after RP. As NCCN risk level increased, there was a significant decreasing trend in BCR-free survival rate （Ptrend = 0.0002）. This study confirmed and validated that NCCN risk classification was a significant predictor of BCR and BCR-free survival after RP.展开更多
Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased ...Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.展开更多
At present,there are a large number of informal landfills to be treated all over the country. Under the condition of limited treatment funds,it is necessary to prioritize the treatment of informal landfills. In this p...At present,there are a large number of informal landfills to be treated all over the country. Under the condition of limited treatment funds,it is necessary to prioritize the treatment of informal landfills. In this paper,the pollution risk of waste dump,surrounding soil,groundwater and surface water is analyzed,and a set of comprehensive risk assessment method system of informal landfill is established,which could provide reference for decision making department deciding landfill disposal.展开更多
Objective To develop an integrated risk model for coronary artery occlusion based on data of both traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)and western medicine data,and to evaluate the contribution of TCM-specific indicators ...Objective To develop an integrated risk model for coronary artery occlusion based on data of both traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)and western medicine data,and to evaluate the contribution of TCM-specific indicators to conventional coronary heart disease(CHD)risk prediction.Methods Data of TCM indicators(tongue,facial,and pulse diagnostics)and clinical parame-ters from patients diagnosed with CHD at the Cardiology Department of Shanghai Baoshan Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine,from October 3,2023 to March 15,2024,were collected.Important variables were identified using importance screen-ing and correlation analysis with CHD risk factors and laboratory markers.Six machine learn-ing models including logistic regression(LR),decision tree(DT),support vector machine(SVM),k-nearest neighbors(KNN),random forest(RF),and gradient boosting(GB),were ap-plied to evaluate the risk of coronary artery obstruction by combining clinical and TCM data of CHD.Model performance was assessed using metrics such as accuracy,precision,and re-call,with reliability validated through ten-fold cross-validation.Results A total of 288 patients were included in the study.Fifteen clinical risk factors,includ-ing body mass index(BMI),myoglobin,and alcohol consumption history,were incorporated into the diagnostic models.The KNN model showed good performance when combining clin-ical data with tongue and facial data.The SVM model performed well when clinical data was combined with pulse data.Among all the models,the KNN model with 10-fold cross-valida-tion,which integrates the three types of TCM diagnostic data(tongue,face,and pulse)with clinical data,performs the best(accuracy:0.837,precision:0.814,and recall:0.809).Conclusion Incorporating TCM diagnostic data can enhance the accuracy of coronary artery obstruction risk assessment.The KNN prediction model that integrate tongue,facial,and pulse data performs the best and can be recommended as a clinical decision support tool.展开更多
BACKGROUND Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.AIM To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress(E-PASS)s...BACKGROUND Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.AIM To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress(E-PASS)scoring system’s efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery.METHODS A systematic search of published studies was conducted,yielding 17 studies with pertinent data.Parameters such as preoperative risk score(PRS),surgical stress score(SSS),comprehensive risk score(CRS),postoperative complications,post-operative mortality,and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis.Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables,withχ2 tests assessing heterogeneity(P value).RESULTS Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications[mean difference and 95%confidence interval(CI)of PRS:0.10(0.05-0.15);SSS:0.04(0.001-0.08);CRS:0.19(0.07-0.31)].Following the exclusion of low-quality studies,results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity.Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to hetero-geneity in CRS analysis.Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates[odds ratio(OR)(95%CI):3.01(1.83-4.95)],with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality[OR(95%CI):15.49(3.75-64.01)].CONCLUSION In summary,postoperative complications in abdominal surgery,as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system,are consistently linked to elevated PRS,SSS,and CRS scores.High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality.This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery,underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.展开更多
Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy.Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of...Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy.Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk.This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets.Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China,indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of the risk receptors.Therefore,the risks show significant spatial differences.The high-risk regions are mainly distributed in East,South,and central China,while the medium-high risk regions are found in North and southwestern China.Under the 2℃warming target,more than 1/4 of China’s area would be at high and medium-high risk,which is more severe than under the 1.5℃warming target,and would extend to the western and northern regions.This work provides regional risk characteristics of climate change under different global warming targets as a foundation for dealing with climate change.展开更多
Curability and safety are essential for patients with advanced liver malignancy undergoing extended liver resection.If the future liver remnant(FLR)volume is insufficient,portal embolization with or without hepatic ar...Curability and safety are essential for patients with advanced liver malignancy undergoing extended liver resection.If the future liver remnant(FLR)volume is insufficient,portal embolization with or without hepatic arterial or venous embolization or a conventional two-stage hepatectomy(TSH)can be performed(1,2).Associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy(ALPPS)was introduced in 2007.展开更多
基金the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51021004)National Key Technology R&D Program in the 12th Five-Year Plan of China (No. 2011BAB10B06)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51179121)
文摘The comprehensive risk analysis of storm surge flood is vital to the safety management of sea embank- ment, the scientific assessment of storm surge disaster and the improvement of emergent treatment in storm surge haz- ard. Based on the research of disaster-causing, disaster-pregnant and disaster-bearing factors, the influencing factors of storm surge risk are concluded to be flood natural risk, embankment position, embankment width and height. The membership degree of the factors of stoma surge risk is firstly determined by storm surge flood evolution based on WebGIS, and the comprehensive risk membership and risk grade of each influencing factor are obtained. Then the effects of a single factor on comprehensive risk and sensitivity analysis are discussed, and the storm surge flood risk map is obtained. Finally, the storm surge of Tianjin Binhai New Area is taken as a case. The results show that the in- fluencing degree of the factors on the comprehensive risk membership is in decreasing order of flood natural risk, em- bankment position, embankment width and height. The flood risk map of the case is drawn, which is useful to decrease losses caused by storm surge disaster.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under the theme“Construction of a data representation framework for sustainable development indicators”[Grant No.2022YFC3802903-01]the National Natural Science Foundation of China“An economic theory based on the new production function in carbon neutrality”[Grant No.72250064]the National Natural Science Foundation of China“Macroeconomics”[Grant No.72122011].
文摘Climate change severely challenges our ecosystem and society,affecting urban residents’socioeconomic activities.Thus,assessing severe weather risk is crucial for evaluating urban sustainability;understanding trends,causes,and impacts on socioeconomic development;and supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)13.Using meteorological data from 1980 to 2020,we investigate five disaster-causing severe weather events in China and construct a comprehensive index of extreme climate risk(CIECR)at the county,city,province,and national levels.The CIECR can identify high-risk regions and primary severe weather events and provide early warnings.We empirically test the impact of extreme climate risks on agricultural production,industrial structure,and labor employment.The results show high risks in Xinjiang,northern Inner Mongolia,and southern regions,with high temperatures,low temperatures,and high winds as the leading risks.At the national level,the extreme climate risk fluctuates,indicating climate warming.While risks reduce agricultural production and employment,they promote modern agriculture,industrial production,and urbanization.The novelty of the study lies in its development of the county-level CIECR,which can capture heterogeneity characteristics and provide microdata support for urban climate change research and efforts toward SDG 13.This study aids in mitigating climate risks;responding to climate change;and comprehensively analyzing the causes,trends,and impacts of extreme climate risks.
基金Project(2010467038)supported by the Special Fund for Environmental Research in the Public Interest,China
文摘Literature lacked in providing a comprehensive research on heavy metal detection in aquatic, biological and sedimentary states of rivers. The present study was imparted with all these three components of the river. Heavy metal toxicity or pollution index was used as a tool for ecological risk assessment by considering the single state studies conducted by many researchers. An intensive ecological risk assessment model was constructed and heavy metals were indicated as a serious threat to the environment. The model was applied to determining five toxic heavy metals in three states of the Songhua River. According to the ecological risk index, heavy metal pollution in three phases was categorized as aquatic〉biological〉sedimentary, while the overall descending order of heavy metal ecological risk index was as Cd〉Hg〉As〉Pb〉Cr. Cd and Hg were selected as the priority pollutants of Songhua River.
基金This study was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 81472377） and the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai （No. 16ZR1406500）. The authors also thank Wei-Yi Yang, Cui-Zhu Zhang, and Ying Shen for helping with follow-up of patients.
文摘This study aimed to assess the role of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network （NCCN） risk classification in predicting biochemical recurrence （BCR） after radical prostatectomy （RP） in Chinese prostate cancer patients. We included a consecutive cohort of 385 patients with prostate cancer who underwent RP at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center （Shanghai, China） from March 2011 to December 2014. Gleason grade groups were applied at analysis according to the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology Consensus. Risk groups were stratified according to the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology： Prostate Cancer version 1, 2017. All 385 patients were divided into BCR and non-BCR groups. The clinicopathological characteristics were compared using an independent sample t-test, Chi-squared test, and Fisher＇s exact test. BCR-free survival was compared using the log-rank test and multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis. During median follow-up of 48 months （range： 1-78 months）, 31 （8.05%） patients experienced BCR. The BCR group had higher prostate-specific antigen level at diagnosis （46.54 ± 39.58 ng m1-1 vs 21.02 ± 21.06 ng ml-1, P= 0.001）, more advanced pT stage （P= 0.002）, and higher pN1 rate （P〈 0.001）. NCCN risk classification was a significant predictor of BCR {P = 0.0006） and BCR-free survival （P = 0.003） after RP. As NCCN risk level increased, there was a significant decreasing trend in BCR-free survival rate （Ptrend = 0.0002）. This study confirmed and validated that NCCN risk classification was a significant predictor of BCR and BCR-free survival after RP.
文摘Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.
文摘At present,there are a large number of informal landfills to be treated all over the country. Under the condition of limited treatment funds,it is necessary to prioritize the treatment of informal landfills. In this paper,the pollution risk of waste dump,surrounding soil,groundwater and surface water is analyzed,and a set of comprehensive risk assessment method system of informal landfill is established,which could provide reference for decision making department deciding landfill disposal.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(82104738)High-Level Key Discipline Construction Project in Traditional Chinese Medicine Diagnostics by the National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine(ZYYZDXK-2023069)Clinical Research Project in the Health Industry by Shanghai Municipal Health Commission(20244Y0129).
文摘Objective To develop an integrated risk model for coronary artery occlusion based on data of both traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)and western medicine data,and to evaluate the contribution of TCM-specific indicators to conventional coronary heart disease(CHD)risk prediction.Methods Data of TCM indicators(tongue,facial,and pulse diagnostics)and clinical parame-ters from patients diagnosed with CHD at the Cardiology Department of Shanghai Baoshan Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine,from October 3,2023 to March 15,2024,were collected.Important variables were identified using importance screen-ing and correlation analysis with CHD risk factors and laboratory markers.Six machine learn-ing models including logistic regression(LR),decision tree(DT),support vector machine(SVM),k-nearest neighbors(KNN),random forest(RF),and gradient boosting(GB),were ap-plied to evaluate the risk of coronary artery obstruction by combining clinical and TCM data of CHD.Model performance was assessed using metrics such as accuracy,precision,and re-call,with reliability validated through ten-fold cross-validation.Results A total of 288 patients were included in the study.Fifteen clinical risk factors,includ-ing body mass index(BMI),myoglobin,and alcohol consumption history,were incorporated into the diagnostic models.The KNN model showed good performance when combining clin-ical data with tongue and facial data.The SVM model performed well when clinical data was combined with pulse data.Among all the models,the KNN model with 10-fold cross-valida-tion,which integrates the three types of TCM diagnostic data(tongue,face,and pulse)with clinical data,performs the best(accuracy:0.837,precision:0.814,and recall:0.809).Conclusion Incorporating TCM diagnostic data can enhance the accuracy of coronary artery obstruction risk assessment.The KNN prediction model that integrate tongue,facial,and pulse data performs the best and can be recommended as a clinical decision support tool.
基金Supported by Medical Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Province of China,No.2020PY053.
文摘BACKGROUND Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.AIM To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress(E-PASS)scoring system’s efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery.METHODS A systematic search of published studies was conducted,yielding 17 studies with pertinent data.Parameters such as preoperative risk score(PRS),surgical stress score(SSS),comprehensive risk score(CRS),postoperative complications,post-operative mortality,and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis.Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables,withχ2 tests assessing heterogeneity(P value).RESULTS Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications[mean difference and 95%confidence interval(CI)of PRS:0.10(0.05-0.15);SSS:0.04(0.001-0.08);CRS:0.19(0.07-0.31)].Following the exclusion of low-quality studies,results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity.Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to hetero-geneity in CRS analysis.Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates[odds ratio(OR)(95%CI):3.01(1.83-4.95)],with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality[OR(95%CI):15.49(3.75-64.01)].CONCLUSION In summary,postoperative complications in abdominal surgery,as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system,are consistently linked to elevated PRS,SSS,and CRS scores.High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality.This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery,underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.
基金The National Key R&D Program of China,No.2018YFC1509002The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA19040304。
文摘Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy.Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk.This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets.Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China,indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of the risk receptors.Therefore,the risks show significant spatial differences.The high-risk regions are mainly distributed in East,South,and central China,while the medium-high risk regions are found in North and southwestern China.Under the 2℃warming target,more than 1/4 of China’s area would be at high and medium-high risk,which is more severe than under the 1.5℃warming target,and would extend to the western and northern regions.This work provides regional risk characteristics of climate change under different global warming targets as a foundation for dealing with climate change.
文摘Curability and safety are essential for patients with advanced liver malignancy undergoing extended liver resection.If the future liver remnant(FLR)volume is insufficient,portal embolization with or without hepatic arterial or venous embolization or a conventional two-stage hepatectomy(TSH)can be performed(1,2).Associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy(ALPPS)was introduced in 2007.
