Climate change has altered locally singletype disasters to large-scale compound disasters because of increasing intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events.The compound disasters can combine small-scale floods,...Climate change has altered locally singletype disasters to large-scale compound disasters because of increasing intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events.The compound disasters can combine small-scale floods,debris flows,shallow landslides,deep-seated landslides,and landslide lakes into a large-scale single disaster event.Although simulation models and evaluation tools are available for single-type disasters,no single model is well developed for compound disasters due to the difficulty of handling the interrelationship between two successive single-type disasters.This study proposes a structure for linking available single-type simulation models to evaluate compound disasters and provides a useful tool of decision making for warning and planning of disaster reduction.展开更多
Extreme weather events are increasing the chances of global outbreaks of infectious diseases,and are highly susceptible to the formation of“extreme weather-epidemic”compound disasters.It has become a serious challen...Extreme weather events are increasing the chances of global outbreaks of infectious diseases,and are highly susceptible to the formation of“extreme weather-epidemic”compound disasters.It has become a serious challenge for the global climate and public health.In this study,we summarize and outline a series of research that advances in the theoretical basis,monitoring technology,prediction and early warning,and risk assessment of extreme weather-epidemic compound disasters(EWED).We also present relevant recommendations for policy formulation and research directions of emergency management of such compound disasters,emphasizing the necessity to clarify the health impacts and triggers of extreme weather events,the enhancement of infectious disease surveillance and prediction techniques,and the construction of an extreme weather-epidemic compound disaster monitoring and early warning system.This will facilitate the improvement of the global emergency management capacity of extreme weather-epidemic compound disasters and reduce the human health burden and economic losses under the impact of climate change.展开更多
A compound disaster rumor is a special type of rumor that involves multiple public safety events.Its pattern of spread is distinct from that of a general disaster rumor,which involves one public safety event.This work...A compound disaster rumor is a special type of rumor that involves multiple public safety events.Its pattern of spread is distinct from that of a general disaster rumor,which involves one public safety event.This work examines and verifies the amplification effect of the spread of compound disaster rumors(relative to general disaster rumors).A new rumor spread model based on infectious disease dynamics is proposed for compound disaster rumors involving two simultaneously occurring public safety events.The new model considers a special group of people,termed“double-hazard sensitive ignorants.”Taking this group as the initial crowd,it adds a new spread chain to existing rumor spread models.This modeling method successfully captures the amplification effect of the spread of compound disaster rumors involving two public safety events.A real case is selected for empirical analysis:the spread of a compound disaster rumor in a double-hazard scenario,consisting of an earthquake and the pandemic,in Sichuan,China in 2022.The results confirm that the spread of a pandemicrelated natural disaster compound rumor has a higher peak than that of a general disaster rumor.The new model is applied in this real scenario and captures the amplification effect of the spread of compound rumors.Our study sheds light on the spreading pattern of compound disaster rumors,thereby providing guidance and assistance for future disaster rumor management.展开更多
From 10 to 15 April 2025,China experienced a rare persistent extreme wind-dust compound disaster that swept from north to south.Based on observational data,historical disaster records,and situations of various exposed...From 10 to 15 April 2025,China experienced a rare persistent extreme wind-dust compound disaster that swept from north to south.Based on observational data,historical disaster records,and situations of various exposed elements,this study analyzed the formation mechanisms and evolution of this extreme event and conducted a rapid assessment of the associated loss and damage.The results indicate that the direct cause of this extreme wind-dust compound disaster was a strong cold vortex system generated in Mongolia,which moved eastward and southward,combined with the amplification effects of topography and urban structures,and the downward transmission of momentum from higher troposphere.The analysis revealed that approximately 697.47 million people were exposed to strong winds,while about 1,374.54 million people were exposed to high concentrations of PM10.The strong winds also caused varying degrees of damage to buildings,transportation networks,agricultural greenhouses,and forests.Based on vulnerability curves for wind-related loss and damage,it was estimated that the number of victims affected by this extreme wind-dust compound disaster ranged from 0.209 to 1.044 million,with casualties between 5 and 13 individuals.The number of damaged buildings was estimated to be between 2115 and 4607,and the area of affected crops was between 229 and 783 km2.The direct economic losses could reach as high as RMB 0.076–3.501 billion yuan.This study revealed the causes of this extreme wind-dust compound disaster and quantified the disaster loss and impact,providing new insights for the prevention of associated disasters.展开更多
In deep underground resources mining engineering,rock mass exists in a three-dimensional environment of high stress,high fluid pressure,and high temperature.With the stress disturbance of mining engineering,it is easy...In deep underground resources mining engineering,rock mass exists in a three-dimensional environment of high stress,high fluid pressure,and high temperature.With the stress disturbance of mining engineering,it is easy to trigger high-energy coal-rock dynamic disasters,which severely restricts the safe and efficient development of deep resources.To investigate the non-linear fracture evolution process and key precursor laws of the coal-rock mass in the process of deep mining,an experimental study was conducted based on the true three-dimensional disturbance stress simulation experiment system.Results showed that the disturbance disaster process of the coal-rock mass has significant stages,and the corresponding acoustic emission(AE)signals also show regular changes.The necessary condition for the occurrence of coal-rock dynamic disasters is that the coupling of the maximum static stress and disturbance stress amplitude should exceed the damage threshold value,the increase ofσ_(2)can reduce the occurrence probability of disaster,and the influence of disturbance frequency on disaster intensity is transition.There are obvious stages in the damage accumulation process of stress-disturbed rock mass,including:damage weakening stage,no damage stage,and accelerated damage stage.The brief AE event calm period and the rapid decline of high average frequency value accompanied with the surge in the low-rise time/amplitude value before the disaster can be regarded as the key precursors of the rock dynamic disaster.The research results are crucial for understanding the disaster evolution of rock mass rupture disturbed by three-dimensional stress in deep engineering,and for the early warning and prevention of coal-rock dynamic disasters.展开更多
In order to study the mechanism of the dual side roof cutting technology on the composite disaster of gas and coal spontaneous combustion in goaf,a model for the evolution of porosity and permeability in the dual side...In order to study the mechanism of the dual side roof cutting technology on the composite disaster of gas and coal spontaneous combustion in goaf,a model for the evolution of porosity and permeability in the dual side roof cutting working face was constructed.The location of the occurrence of the compound disaster of gas explosion and coal spontaneous combustion under the double-sided roof cutting mode was studied,and the sensitivity of the evolution pattern of the compound disaster area to the amount of air supply and gas gush was summarized.The results indicate that the top cutting pressure relief technology significantly reduces the permeability of porous media,and the sensitivity of the goaf on the intake side to airflow disturbances is significantly reduced.As the volume of air supply increases,the distance between the gas explosion risk area and the coal spontaneous combustion risk area gradually decreases,and the probability of composite disaster areas is 0.The increase of air supply and gas emission makes the gas concentration in the middle and deep goaf increase in an exponential function,and the width of the gas explosion risk area increases gradually.When the outflow reaches 40 m^(3)/min,there is no composite disaster zone,indicating that the rapid increase in outflow inhibits the occurrence of composite disasters.展开更多
基金supported by National Science Council,Taiwan,China.The project name is Numerical Approach to Estimate the Stability and Deformation Response of Landslide Dams(NSC99-2625-M-006-004)and Modeling of The Compound Disaster in Hsiaolin Village(NSC99-2218-E-006-238)
文摘Climate change has altered locally singletype disasters to large-scale compound disasters because of increasing intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events.The compound disasters can combine small-scale floods,debris flows,shallow landslides,deep-seated landslides,and landslide lakes into a large-scale single disaster event.Although simulation models and evaluation tools are available for single-type disasters,no single model is well developed for compound disasters due to the difficulty of handling the interrelationship between two successive single-type disasters.This study proposes a structure for linking available single-type simulation models to evaluate compound disasters and provides a useful tool of decision making for warning and planning of disaster reduction.
基金supported by the Self-supporting Program of Guangzhou Laboratory(SRPG22-007)the Collaborative Research Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(L2224041)+5 种基金the ChineseAcademy of Sciences(XK2022DXC005)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3503400)the Major Project of Guangzhou National Laboratory(GZNL2024A01004)the Gansu Province Intellectual Property Program(Oriented Organization)Project(22ZSCQD02)the Gansu Province Science and Technology Plan Project Youth Science and Technology Fund(25JRRA707)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(GZC20231001).
文摘Extreme weather events are increasing the chances of global outbreaks of infectious diseases,and are highly susceptible to the formation of“extreme weather-epidemic”compound disasters.It has become a serious challenge for the global climate and public health.In this study,we summarize and outline a series of research that advances in the theoretical basis,monitoring technology,prediction and early warning,and risk assessment of extreme weather-epidemic compound disasters(EWED).We also present relevant recommendations for policy formulation and research directions of emergency management of such compound disasters,emphasizing the necessity to clarify the health impacts and triggers of extreme weather events,the enhancement of infectious disease surveillance and prediction techniques,and the construction of an extreme weather-epidemic compound disaster monitoring and early warning system.This will facilitate the improvement of the global emergency management capacity of extreme weather-epidemic compound disasters and reduce the human health burden and economic losses under the impact of climate change.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(72034004)National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(71725006).
文摘A compound disaster rumor is a special type of rumor that involves multiple public safety events.Its pattern of spread is distinct from that of a general disaster rumor,which involves one public safety event.This work examines and verifies the amplification effect of the spread of compound disaster rumors(relative to general disaster rumors).A new rumor spread model based on infectious disease dynamics is proposed for compound disaster rumors involving two simultaneously occurring public safety events.The new model considers a special group of people,termed“double-hazard sensitive ignorants.”Taking this group as the initial crowd,it adds a new spread chain to existing rumor spread models.This modeling method successfully captures the amplification effect of the spread of compound disaster rumors involving two public safety events.A real case is selected for empirical analysis:the spread of a compound disaster rumor in a double-hazard scenario,consisting of an earthquake and the pandemic,in Sichuan,China in 2022.The results confirm that the spread of a pandemicrelated natural disaster compound rumor has a higher peak than that of a general disaster rumor.The new model is applied in this real scenario and captures the amplification effect of the spread of compound rumors.Our study sheds light on the spreading pattern of compound disaster rumors,thereby providing guidance and assistance for future disaster rumor management.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42330502)the Central Government Guided Local Science and Technology Development Fund of Qinghai Province—Science and Technology Innovation Base Construction Project(Grant No.2025ZY017)。
文摘From 10 to 15 April 2025,China experienced a rare persistent extreme wind-dust compound disaster that swept from north to south.Based on observational data,historical disaster records,and situations of various exposed elements,this study analyzed the formation mechanisms and evolution of this extreme event and conducted a rapid assessment of the associated loss and damage.The results indicate that the direct cause of this extreme wind-dust compound disaster was a strong cold vortex system generated in Mongolia,which moved eastward and southward,combined with the amplification effects of topography and urban structures,and the downward transmission of momentum from higher troposphere.The analysis revealed that approximately 697.47 million people were exposed to strong winds,while about 1,374.54 million people were exposed to high concentrations of PM10.The strong winds also caused varying degrees of damage to buildings,transportation networks,agricultural greenhouses,and forests.Based on vulnerability curves for wind-related loss and damage,it was estimated that the number of victims affected by this extreme wind-dust compound disaster ranged from 0.209 to 1.044 million,with casualties between 5 and 13 individuals.The number of damaged buildings was estimated to be between 2115 and 4607,and the area of affected crops was between 229 and 783 km2.The direct economic losses could reach as high as RMB 0.076–3.501 billion yuan.This study revealed the causes of this extreme wind-dust compound disaster and quantified the disaster loss and impact,providing new insights for the prevention of associated disasters.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52374222 and 52104209)Basic and applied basic research project of Guangdong Province(Grant No.2024A1515010992).
文摘In deep underground resources mining engineering,rock mass exists in a three-dimensional environment of high stress,high fluid pressure,and high temperature.With the stress disturbance of mining engineering,it is easy to trigger high-energy coal-rock dynamic disasters,which severely restricts the safe and efficient development of deep resources.To investigate the non-linear fracture evolution process and key precursor laws of the coal-rock mass in the process of deep mining,an experimental study was conducted based on the true three-dimensional disturbance stress simulation experiment system.Results showed that the disturbance disaster process of the coal-rock mass has significant stages,and the corresponding acoustic emission(AE)signals also show regular changes.The necessary condition for the occurrence of coal-rock dynamic disasters is that the coupling of the maximum static stress and disturbance stress amplitude should exceed the damage threshold value,the increase ofσ_(2)can reduce the occurrence probability of disaster,and the influence of disturbance frequency on disaster intensity is transition.There are obvious stages in the damage accumulation process of stress-disturbed rock mass,including:damage weakening stage,no damage stage,and accelerated damage stage.The brief AE event calm period and the rapid decline of high average frequency value accompanied with the surge in the low-rise time/amplitude value before the disaster can be regarded as the key precursors of the rock dynamic disaster.The research results are crucial for understanding the disaster evolution of rock mass rupture disturbed by three-dimensional stress in deep engineering,and for the early warning and prevention of coal-rock dynamic disasters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52204090).
文摘In order to study the mechanism of the dual side roof cutting technology on the composite disaster of gas and coal spontaneous combustion in goaf,a model for the evolution of porosity and permeability in the dual side roof cutting working face was constructed.The location of the occurrence of the compound disaster of gas explosion and coal spontaneous combustion under the double-sided roof cutting mode was studied,and the sensitivity of the evolution pattern of the compound disaster area to the amount of air supply and gas gush was summarized.The results indicate that the top cutting pressure relief technology significantly reduces the permeability of porous media,and the sensitivity of the goaf on the intake side to airflow disturbances is significantly reduced.As the volume of air supply increases,the distance between the gas explosion risk area and the coal spontaneous combustion risk area gradually decreases,and the probability of composite disaster areas is 0.The increase of air supply and gas emission makes the gas concentration in the middle and deep goaf increase in an exponential function,and the width of the gas explosion risk area increases gradually.When the outflow reaches 40 m^(3)/min,there is no composite disaster zone,indicating that the rapid increase in outflow inhibits the occurrence of composite disasters.
