This paper investigates a new SEIQR(susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–recovered) epidemic model with quarantine mechanism on heterogeneous complex networks. Firstly, the nonlinear SEIQR epidemic spreading d...This paper investigates a new SEIQR(susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–recovered) epidemic model with quarantine mechanism on heterogeneous complex networks. Firstly, the nonlinear SEIQR epidemic spreading dynamic differential coupling model is proposed. Then, by using mean-field theory and the next-generation matrix method, the equilibriums and basic reproduction number are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the basic reproduction number significantly relies on model parameters and topology of the underlying networks. In addition, the globally asymptotic stability of equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved in detail by the Routh–Hurwitz criterion, Lyapunov method and La Salle's invariance principle. Furthermore, we find that the quarantine mechanism, that is the quarantine rate(γ1, γ2), has a significant effect on epidemic spreading through sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number and model parameters. Meanwhile, the optimal control model of quarantined rate and analysis method are proposed, which can optimize the government control strategies and reduce the number of infected individual. Finally, numerical simulations are given to verify the correctness of theoretical results and a practice application is proposed to predict and control the spreading of COVID-19.展开更多
基金Project supported the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant No. LQN25F030011)the Fundamental Research Project of Hangzhou Dianzi University (Grant No. KYS065624391)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61573148)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province, China (Grant No. 2019A050520001)。
文摘This paper investigates a new SEIQR(susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–recovered) epidemic model with quarantine mechanism on heterogeneous complex networks. Firstly, the nonlinear SEIQR epidemic spreading dynamic differential coupling model is proposed. Then, by using mean-field theory and the next-generation matrix method, the equilibriums and basic reproduction number are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the basic reproduction number significantly relies on model parameters and topology of the underlying networks. In addition, the globally asymptotic stability of equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved in detail by the Routh–Hurwitz criterion, Lyapunov method and La Salle's invariance principle. Furthermore, we find that the quarantine mechanism, that is the quarantine rate(γ1, γ2), has a significant effect on epidemic spreading through sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number and model parameters. Meanwhile, the optimal control model of quarantined rate and analysis method are proposed, which can optimize the government control strategies and reduce the number of infected individual. Finally, numerical simulations are given to verify the correctness of theoretical results and a practice application is proposed to predict and control the spreading of COVID-19.
