As the uncertainty of the global economy intensifies,domestic real economy risks and financial risks may interact and worsen under international risk shocks.Commodity prices are an important channel for transmitting i...As the uncertainty of the global economy intensifies,domestic real economy risks and financial risks may interact and worsen under international risk shocks.Commodity prices are an important channel for transmitting international economic and financial risks.Taking January 2007 to July 2021 as the sample period and using data from nine commodity price indices and banking,diversified finance,and insurance industry indices,this article uses rolling regression method to construct different commodity price risk and financial sector risk indicators.Combined with a vector autoregressive model,the risk contagion effect is calculated.The analysis indicates that there exist significant asymmetric risk contagion effects between various commodities(with energy and steel having the largest risk spillover effects)and there are significant net risk spillover effects on financial sectors(with insurance having the largest risk spillover effect).There are asymmetric risk contagion effects among different financial sectors,with varying degrees of risk spillover effects on commodity prices(with the banking sector having the greatest risk spillover effects on commodity prices and other financial sectors,and diversified finance having the greatest risk spillover effect on commodities).During major global financial events,the risk spillover effects of commodities and input effects increase significantly due to the intensification of the risk spillover effects of energy,steel,and nonferrous metals.The risk spillover effect between commodities and the overall risk spillover effect have significantly increased.The financial sector’s overall net risk input effect has increased,while the net risk input effect of the insurance sector has also increased.These findings are significant for improving systemic financial risk monitoring indicators and adopting accurate prevention and control measures.展开更多
Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model,the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal pric...Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model,the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal prices from London Metal Exchange(LME).The results show that LME nonferrous metals prices still have a greater impact on Chinese nonferrous metals prices.However,the impact of Chinese nonferrous metals prices on LME nonferrous metals prices is still weak except for lead price.The co-movement of nonferrous metal prices between LME and China presents hysteretic nature,and it lasts for 7-8trading days.Furthermore,the co-movement between LME nonferrous metals prices and Chinese nonferrous metals prices has the characteristics of time-varying,and the correlation of lead prices between LME and China is the more stable than all other nonferrous metals prices.展开更多
This study explores correlations and risk spillovers,essential concepts for financial risk management,among commodities(crude oil,gold,and a global commodities index)and emerging stock markets.Using the Asymmetric Dyn...This study explores correlations and risk spillovers,essential concepts for financial risk management,among commodities(crude oil,gold,and a global commodities index)and emerging stock markets.Using the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation–Conditional Value-at-Risk(ADCC-CoVaR)model and a bootstrapped Kolmogorov–Smirnov(KS)test,we analyze the period from December 30,2005,to February 28,2024,examining correlations,downside and upside risk spillovers,and highlighting the effects of major events such as the global financial crisis of 2008,the COVID-19 pandemic,and the Russia-Ukraine war.The results show heightened correlations during crises and significant risk spillovers across market pairs,with downside risks often outweighing upside risks.Gold displays minimal risk spillover,highlighting its unique role as a haven asset.We find that spillovers between gold,global commodities,and stocks increased during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,while those involving crude oil remained stable.These findings provide valuable guidance for portfolio managers in navigating volatile markets.展开更多
This study provides a detailed analysis of the application of blockchain and Internet of Things(IoT)technologies in various aspects of commodity management,addressing issues such as information asymmetry,data security...This study provides a detailed analysis of the application of blockchain and Internet of Things(IoT)technologies in various aspects of commodity management,addressing issues such as information asymmetry,data security and privacy challenges,insufficient supply chain transparency,and difficulties in regulation.The study also explores the challenges and strategies associated with the implementation of these technologies.Through this analysis,the article aims to provide theoretical support and practical reference for improving the efficiency and quality of commodity management,thereby promoting the digital transformation of commodity management.展开更多
This study uses Baidu News data and introduces a novel proxy for the rate of information flow to examine its relationship with return volatility in Chinese commodity futures and to test two competing hypotheses.We exa...This study uses Baidu News data and introduces a novel proxy for the rate of information flow to examine its relationship with return volatility in Chinese commodity futures and to test two competing hypotheses.We examine the contemporaneous relationships using correlation coefficient analysis,and find apparent differences between the information flow-return volatility relationship and the information flowtrading volume relationship.The empirical evidence contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis(MDH)and suggests that the rate of information flow distinctly affects trading volume and volatility.We conducted linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to explore the sequential information arrival hypothesis(SIAH).The empirical results prove that a lead-lag linear and nonlinear causality exists between the information flow and return volatility of commodity futures,which is consistent with SIAH.In other words,a partial equilibrium exists before reaching the ultimate equilibrium when the new information arrives in the market.Finally,these findings are robust to alternative measurement of return volatility and subperiod analysis.Our findings reject the MDH and support the SIAH in the context of Chinese commodity futures.展开更多
Nini Dog of Huaiyang County,one of the provincial-level intangible cultural heritage of Henan,has high artistic,cultural and archaeological value.It is proposed that protection and inheritance of national cultures,as ...Nini Dog of Huaiyang County,one of the provincial-level intangible cultural heritage of Henan,has high artistic,cultural and archaeological value.It is proposed that protection and inheritance of national cultures,as well as innovation based on the inheritance are of great significance to improve the marketing and economic efficiency of these cultures.On this basis,the necessity of further development of Nini Dog commodities is analyzed,which is the need of both tourism development and its own development.This study through full investigation gives the orientation of Nini Dog commodities,potential consumers are classified into 3 groups:people interested in traditional cultures,tourists and children;consumer psychology is analyzed and then design orientation of Nini Dog is proposed,it is stressed that identity design should be enhanced to establish brands,creative commodity design promoted to explore new development thoughts,and composite design encouraged to expand the market.By doing this,the study aims at providing design and development guidance for the future development of Nini Dog commodities.展开更多
Of all the existing materials, plastics are no doubt among the most versatile ones. However, the extreme increases in plastic production as well as the difficulty of the material for degradation have led to a huge num...Of all the existing materials, plastics are no doubt among the most versatile ones. However, the extreme increases in plastic production as well as the difficulty of the material for degradation have led to a huge number of plastic wastes. Their recycling rate after disposal is less than 10%, resulting in a series of serious environmental and ecological problems as well as a significant waste of resources. Current recycling methods generally suffer from large energy consumption, the low utilization rate of recycled products with low added value, and produce other waste during the process. Here, we summarized recentlydeveloped chemical recycling ways on commodity plastics, especially new catalytic paths in production of fuels, high-valued chemicals and advanced materials from a single virgin or a mixture of plastic waste,which have emerged as promising ways to valorize waste plastics more economically and environmentally friendly. The new catalyst design criteria as well as innovative catalytic paths and technologies for plastic upcycling are highlighted. Beyond energy recovery by incineration, these approaches demonstrate how waste plastics can be a viable feedstock for energy use with the generation of clean H_(2), high-quality liquid fuels and materials for energy storage, and help inspiring more catalytic process on plastic upcycling to overcome the economical hurdle and building a circular plastic economy.展开更多
City networks have been a critical topic in the fields of urban geography and regional economics. Numerous studies have explored city networks, focusing mainly on infrastructure and industrial networks. Unlike traditi...City networks have been a critical topic in the fields of urban geography and regional economics. Numerous studies have explored city networks, focusing mainly on infrastructure and industrial networks. Unlike traditional urban network of which the major measuring indexes are population sizes and entity industries, online commodity service networks could reflect well the influencing of emerging economies, especially the Internet economy, on city networks. This study analyzes and reveals structural features of China's city networks through online commodity services, providing the internet economic approach on city networks. Results indicate that the core cities of online commodity service networks are mainly concentrated in eastern coastal areas. In addition, spatial polarization and layer structure of network connections are obvious, descending from the centers in eastern China to peripheral cities in central and western China. Online commodity services of different cities show apparent differences and uncertainties in terms of specialization rates of international connection, which presents a tendency toward diversification. Online commodity service networks are not only associated with goods production, supply, and consumption in physical space but also reflect virtual information, capital, and technology flows, thus providing a new empirical approach for understanding city networks in information and internet economic age.展开更多
Forecasting mineral commodity(MC) prices has been an important and difficult task traditionally addressed by econometric, stochastic-Gaussian and time series techniques. None of these techniques has proved suitable to...Forecasting mineral commodity(MC) prices has been an important and difficult task traditionally addressed by econometric, stochastic-Gaussian and time series techniques. None of these techniques has proved suitable to represent the dynamic behavior and time related nature of MC markets. Chaos theory(CT) and machine learning(ML) techniques are able to represent the temporal relationships of variables and their evolution has been used separately to better understand and represent MC markets. CT can determine a system's dynamics in the form of time delay and embedding dimension. However, this information has often been solely used to describe the system's behavior and not for forecasting.Compared to traditional techniques, ML has better performance for forecasting MC prices, due to its capacity for finding patterns governing the system's dynamics. However, the rational nature of economic problems increases concerns regarding the use of hidden patterns for forecasting. Therefore, it is uncertain if variables selected and hidden patterns found by ML can represent the economic rationality.Despite their refined features for representing system dynamics, the separate use of either CT or ML does not provide the expected realistic accuracy. By itself, neither CT nor ML are able to identify the main variables affecting systems, recognize the relation and influence of variables though time, and discover hidden patterns governing systems evolution simultaneously. This paper discusses the necessity to adapt and combine CT and ML to obtain a more realistic representation of MC market behavior to forecast long-term price trends.展开更多
Fluctuations in commodity prices should influence mining operations to continually update and adjust their mine plans in order to capture additional value under new market conditions. One of the adjustments is the cha...Fluctuations in commodity prices should influence mining operations to continually update and adjust their mine plans in order to capture additional value under new market conditions. One of the adjustments is the change in production sequencing. This paper seeks to present a method for quantifying the net present value(NPV) that may be directly attributed to the change in commodity prices. The evaluation is conducted across ten copper price scenarios. Discrete event simulation combined with mixed integer programming was used to attain a viable production strategy and to generate optimal mine plans. The analysis indicates that an increase in prices results in an increased in the NPV from$96.57M to $755.65M. In an environment where mining operations must be striving to gain as much value as possible from the rights to exploit a finite resource, it is not appropriate to keep operating under the same mine plan if commodity prices alter during the course of operations.展开更多
The challenge Africa faces the most is how to feed the 2.4 billion people in 2050. This will require a transformational agriculture. Africa doesn’t need subsistence agriculture, but rather agriculture linked to the m...The challenge Africa faces the most is how to feed the 2.4 billion people in 2050. This will require a transformational agriculture. Africa doesn’t need subsistence agriculture, but rather agriculture linked to the market where market demand and the consuming habits are taken in consideration. Agriculture evolves in an environment where small holders are linked to markets (national and regional), where economies of complementarity and economies of scale are taken advantage of by producers and private sector. In short, Africa will need a paradigm shift to industrialise and commercialise its agriculture sector in order to increase food production, and income and to create jobs in and outside the sector. Africa needs agribusiness and agro-industries to domesticate the benefits of the sector, to create wealth in the sector and retain that wealth in the continent. Agricultural commodities regional value chains for increased food should be the target for Africa. The continent remains the region with the highest prevalence of under-nourishment. Since agriculture remains the mainstay of most African economies except the mineral producers, the sector deserves a close attention from leaders. It accounts for 65% of employment and 40% of Africa’s export earnings and accounts for 17% of the GDP. This shows how important the sector is. Agriculture needs to be seen as a conduit for farmers to get connected to markets, a conduit for revenue, for jobs and for transformation. Africa needs to come back on the international scene as food sufficient continent and even food exporter. This can be achieved only with a stable, productive agricultural resource base. Thus, achieving and sustaining food security and economic prosperity in Africa will require significant efforts to modernize the continent’s agriculture sector through injection of agribusiness and agro-industries and through the application of science and technology in agriculture. In essence, agriculture needs to be viewed as knowledge based entrepreneurial activity. Smart investments in agriculture will have multiplier effects for the whole economy and hence induce prosperity to other sectors. In recent years, a renewed focus on agriculture has been evident in policy and development agendas across the African continent. This paper outlines the status of agriculture, agribusiness and agro-industries in Africa, their role in the agenda of agricultural transformation and economic transformation and the focus on regional value chain to increase food production, transformation and trade. The paper adopts a new thinking in agriculture, which reflects a regional value chain approach. The author covers such issues as: need for agricultural transformation, the role of value chain in agricultural sector, the need for regional value chain for increased income and increased food, the role of markets and the common denominator of all, the regional integration to push forward the African agriculture agenda. Evidence shows that it is agricultural growth, through its leverage effects on the rest of the economy that typically enables poor countries, poor regions and ultimately poor households to take the first steps toward economic transformation. Therefore agricultural productivity, at the small holder’s level, has the potential to lift millions of Africa’s vulnerable out of poverty and provide sustainable jobs. Other factors, namely “the rapid urbanization” and “increased population growth”, are quoted to be of critical importance. Africa population is projected to double, attaining the 2.3 billion people mark over the next 40 years representing half of the globe’s total population. This could trigger competition for resources and can have devastating effects on natural resources if not rightly channelled.展开更多
The rural commodity economy in the Edo period developed by leaps and bounds under the influence of institution,policy,technology and other factors. From the mid 17 th century,the specific area of cash crops gradually ...The rural commodity economy in the Edo period developed by leaps and bounds under the influence of institution,policy,technology and other factors. From the mid 17 th century,the specific area of cash crops gradually took shape in Japan and the largescale cultivation of cash crops greatly promoted the development of rural handicrafts,thereby creating the conditions for the initiation of the capitalist relations of production. The development of rural commodity economy not only changed the traditional mode of operation and production of Japanese farmers,but also accelerated the class differentiation,shook and disintegrated the economic foundation and class basis of Bakuhan society,and created the preconditions for the later Meiji Restoration.展开更多
In this paper, three types of modeling of diffusion equations for price changing of commodity are studied. In which, the partial derivatives of price of commodity respected to time on the left hand side are integer-de...In this paper, three types of modeling of diffusion equations for price changing of commodity are studied. In which, the partial derivatives of price of commodity respected to time on the left hand side are integer-derivative, fractal derivative, and fractional derivative respectively;while just a second order derivative respected to space is considered on the right hand side. The solutions of these diffusion equations are obtained by method of departing variables and initial boundary conditions, by translation of variables, and by translation of operators. The definitions of order of commodity x and the distance between commodity?xi and xj are defined as [1]. Examples of calculation of price of pork, beef and mutton mainly due to price raising of pork in 2007-07 to 2008-02 inChina are given with same market data as [1]. Conclusion is made.展开更多
Fresh agricultural commodities have been entering the era of network marketing. However,the coverage population is still relatively small. In this paper,more than 400 online shopping customer survey data are statistic...Fresh agricultural commodities have been entering the era of network marketing. However,the coverage population is still relatively small. In this paper,more than 400 online shopping customer survey data are statistically analyzed based on perceived risk multidimensional model by factor analysis method to classify the potential customers' perceived risk,concluding that food safety risks,mental health risk,relative convenience risk,liquidity risk,privacy risk and time risk are the most important risk factors that impact potential customers online shopping of fresh agricultural commodities. By using customers prediction model which is based on the classification and prediction methods to mining potential customers,it comes to the conclusion that men are more likely to purchase fresh agricultural commodities online,specifically,in the male sample,those whose average monthly net purchase cost equals to or is higher than 51 yuan or whose online shopping time equals to or is longer than 3 years and at the same time whose age is younger than 30 are the most potential customers. Finally,it puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of risk control and effective customer acquisition.展开更多
Taking a total of 13 areas in Heilongjiang commodity grain base as the research objects,9 indices are selected,which are regional GDP(X1),per capita GDP(X2),total value of tertiary industry(X3),financial revenue(X4),u...Taking a total of 13 areas in Heilongjiang commodity grain base as the research objects,9 indices are selected,which are regional GDP(X1),per capita GDP(X2),total value of tertiary industry(X3),financial revenue(X4),urban fixed assets investment(X5),average salary(X6),gross industrial output value(X7),total output value of farming,forestry,husbandry and fishing(X8),and retail sales of social consumer goods(X9).Based on this,evaluation index system of regional economy is established.According to the 2006-2008 Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook,average values within 3 years are used as analytical data.Factor Analysis Method is adopted to establish regression model and to carry out comprehensive analysis.Result shows that Heilongjiang commodity grain base has extremely uneven regional economic development in different areas.According to the score order and actual situation,the 13 areas are divided into 4 types.The first and second types are Harbin and Daqing,respectively.The third type is Qiqihaer,Suihua,Mudanjiang and Jiamusi.And the forth type is Jixi,Shuangyashan,Heihe,Yichun,Qitaihe,Hegang and Daxinganling.Suggestions for the development of these areas are put forward.展开更多
This paper investigates the structural upgrade of China's commodity trade over the past two decades from the perspectives of commodity categories, technical value-added and quality level. Based on the analysis of ...This paper investigates the structural upgrade of China's commodity trade over the past two decades from the perspectives of commodity categories, technical value-added and quality level. Based on the analysis of commodity categories, technical value-added and quality, this paper arrives at the following findings: High technology manufactures accounted for a growing share of China's commodity export, the overall technical level of Chinese exports significantly upgraded, and most of Chinese commodities upgraded from low quality to medium-and high-quality levels. As can be seen from the structure of China's bilateral trade with its five major trading partners, China's exporting goods remained inferior to importing goods in terms of technology and quality despite their quality upgrades.展开更多
Background:This paper examines the pattern of the volatility of the daily return of select commodity futures in India and explores the extent to which the select commodity futures satisfy the Samuelson hypothesis.Meth...Background:This paper examines the pattern of the volatility of the daily return of select commodity futures in India and explores the extent to which the select commodity futures satisfy the Samuelson hypothesis.Methods:One commodity future from each group of futures is chosen for the analysis.The select commodities are potato,gold,crude oil,and mentha oil.The data are collected from MCX India over the period 2004–2012.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analysis.The GARCH model is introduced for examining the volatility of commodity futures.One of the key contributions of the paper is the use of theβterm of the GARCH model to address the Samuelson hypothesis.Result:The Samuelson hypothesis,when tested by daily returns and using standard deviation as a crude measure of volatility,is supported for gold futures only,as per the value ofβ(the GARCH effect).The values of the rolling standard deviation,used as a measure of the trend in the volatility of daily returns,exhibits a decreasing volatility trend for potato futures and an increasing volatility trend for gold futures in all contract cycles.The result of the GARCH(1,1)model suggests the presence of persistent volatility and the prevalence of long memory for the select commodity futures,except potato futures.Conclusions:The study sheds light on significant characteristics of the daily return volatility of the commodity futures under analysis.The results suggest the existence of a developed market for the gold and crude oil futures(with volatility clustering)and show that the maturity effect is only valid for the gold futures.展开更多
This research sheds light on the causal link between commodity price indexes,i.e.,the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index,in the global market,usi...This research sheds light on the causal link between commodity price indexes,i.e.,the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index,in the global market,using wavelet coherence,Toda–Yamamoto causality,and gradual shift causality tests over the period 1992M1 to 2019M12.Findings from the wavelet power spectrum and partial wavelet coherence reveal that:(1)there was significant volatility in the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index between 2004 and 2014 at different frequencies;and(2)commodity price indexes significantly caused the energy price index at different time periods and frequencies.It is noteworthy that the outcomes of the Toda–Yamamoto causality and gradual-shift causality tests are in line with the results of wavelet coherence.展开更多
This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from...This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2017.The relationship between exchange rate and each commodity price is examined in terms of Engle-Granger and threshold cointegrations.The estimated results provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and show that the adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium position are asymmetric in the short run.Furthermore,this study finds evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from the nominal exchange rate to oil price in the long and short run using a spectral frequency domain causality application.There is also empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between the nominal exchange rate and palm oil price,rubber price,and natural gas price in the long and short run.Overall,the findings have significant implications for the current debate on the future of primary commodities in Malaysia.展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(23FJYA004).
文摘As the uncertainty of the global economy intensifies,domestic real economy risks and financial risks may interact and worsen under international risk shocks.Commodity prices are an important channel for transmitting international economic and financial risks.Taking January 2007 to July 2021 as the sample period and using data from nine commodity price indices and banking,diversified finance,and insurance industry indices,this article uses rolling regression method to construct different commodity price risk and financial sector risk indicators.Combined with a vector autoregressive model,the risk contagion effect is calculated.The analysis indicates that there exist significant asymmetric risk contagion effects between various commodities(with energy and steel having the largest risk spillover effects)and there are significant net risk spillover effects on financial sectors(with insurance having the largest risk spillover effect).There are asymmetric risk contagion effects among different financial sectors,with varying degrees of risk spillover effects on commodity prices(with the banking sector having the greatest risk spillover effects on commodity prices and other financial sectors,and diversified finance having the greatest risk spillover effect on commodities).During major global financial events,the risk spillover effects of commodities and input effects increase significantly due to the intensification of the risk spillover effects of energy,steel,and nonferrous metals.The risk spillover effect between commodities and the overall risk spillover effect have significantly increased.The financial sector’s overall net risk input effect has increased,while the net risk input effect of the insurance sector has also increased.These findings are significant for improving systemic financial risk monitoring indicators and adopting accurate prevention and control measures.
基金Project(71073177)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(12JJ4077)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of ChinaProject(2012zzts002)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of Central South University,China
文摘Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model,the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal prices from London Metal Exchange(LME).The results show that LME nonferrous metals prices still have a greater impact on Chinese nonferrous metals prices.However,the impact of Chinese nonferrous metals prices on LME nonferrous metals prices is still weak except for lead price.The co-movement of nonferrous metal prices between LME and China presents hysteretic nature,and it lasts for 7-8trading days.Furthermore,the co-movement between LME nonferrous metals prices and Chinese nonferrous metals prices has the characteristics of time-varying,and the correlation of lead prices between LME and China is the more stable than all other nonferrous metals prices.
文摘This study explores correlations and risk spillovers,essential concepts for financial risk management,among commodities(crude oil,gold,and a global commodities index)and emerging stock markets.Using the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation–Conditional Value-at-Risk(ADCC-CoVaR)model and a bootstrapped Kolmogorov–Smirnov(KS)test,we analyze the period from December 30,2005,to February 28,2024,examining correlations,downside and upside risk spillovers,and highlighting the effects of major events such as the global financial crisis of 2008,the COVID-19 pandemic,and the Russia-Ukraine war.The results show heightened correlations during crises and significant risk spillovers across market pairs,with downside risks often outweighing upside risks.Gold displays minimal risk spillover,highlighting its unique role as a haven asset.We find that spillovers between gold,global commodities,and stocks increased during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,while those involving crude oil remained stable.These findings provide valuable guidance for portfolio managers in navigating volatile markets.
文摘This study provides a detailed analysis of the application of blockchain and Internet of Things(IoT)technologies in various aspects of commodity management,addressing issues such as information asymmetry,data security and privacy challenges,insufficient supply chain transparency,and difficulties in regulation.The study also explores the challenges and strategies associated with the implementation of these technologies.Through this analysis,the article aims to provide theoretical support and practical reference for improving the efficiency and quality of commodity management,thereby promoting the digital transformation of commodity management.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(24CGL027)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72101009,72141304,72201122)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3303304).
文摘This study uses Baidu News data and introduces a novel proxy for the rate of information flow to examine its relationship with return volatility in Chinese commodity futures and to test two competing hypotheses.We examine the contemporaneous relationships using correlation coefficient analysis,and find apparent differences between the information flow-return volatility relationship and the information flowtrading volume relationship.The empirical evidence contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis(MDH)and suggests that the rate of information flow distinctly affects trading volume and volatility.We conducted linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to explore the sequential information arrival hypothesis(SIAH).The empirical results prove that a lead-lag linear and nonlinear causality exists between the information flow and return volatility of commodity futures,which is consistent with SIAH.In other words,a partial equilibrium exists before reaching the ultimate equilibrium when the new information arrives in the market.Finally,these findings are robust to alternative measurement of return volatility and subperiod analysis.Our findings reject the MDH and support the SIAH in the context of Chinese commodity futures.
文摘Nini Dog of Huaiyang County,one of the provincial-level intangible cultural heritage of Henan,has high artistic,cultural and archaeological value.It is proposed that protection and inheritance of national cultures,as well as innovation based on the inheritance are of great significance to improve the marketing and economic efficiency of these cultures.On this basis,the necessity of further development of Nini Dog commodities is analyzed,which is the need of both tourism development and its own development.This study through full investigation gives the orientation of Nini Dog commodities,potential consumers are classified into 3 groups:people interested in traditional cultures,tourists and children;consumer psychology is analyzed and then design orientation of Nini Dog is proposed,it is stressed that identity design should be enhanced to establish brands,creative commodity design promoted to explore new development thoughts,and composite design encouraged to expand the market.By doing this,the study aims at providing design and development guidance for the future development of Nini Dog commodities.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2021YFA1501700)the Funding for Hundred Talent Program B of Sichuan University (20822041E4079)+2 种基金the Institutional Research Fund from Sichuan University (2020SCUNL205)the State Key Laboratory of Polymer Materials Engineering Open Fund project (sklpme2020-1-02)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘Of all the existing materials, plastics are no doubt among the most versatile ones. However, the extreme increases in plastic production as well as the difficulty of the material for degradation have led to a huge number of plastic wastes. Their recycling rate after disposal is less than 10%, resulting in a series of serious environmental and ecological problems as well as a significant waste of resources. Current recycling methods generally suffer from large energy consumption, the low utilization rate of recycled products with low added value, and produce other waste during the process. Here, we summarized recentlydeveloped chemical recycling ways on commodity plastics, especially new catalytic paths in production of fuels, high-valued chemicals and advanced materials from a single virgin or a mixture of plastic waste,which have emerged as promising ways to valorize waste plastics more economically and environmentally friendly. The new catalyst design criteria as well as innovative catalytic paths and technologies for plastic upcycling are highlighted. Beyond energy recovery by incineration, these approaches demonstrate how waste plastics can be a viable feedstock for energy use with the generation of clean H_(2), high-quality liquid fuels and materials for energy storage, and help inspiring more catalytic process on plastic upcycling to overcome the economical hurdle and building a circular plastic economy.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571146,41701178)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2016M600393)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20170639)
文摘City networks have been a critical topic in the fields of urban geography and regional economics. Numerous studies have explored city networks, focusing mainly on infrastructure and industrial networks. Unlike traditional urban network of which the major measuring indexes are population sizes and entity industries, online commodity service networks could reflect well the influencing of emerging economies, especially the Internet economy, on city networks. This study analyzes and reveals structural features of China's city networks through online commodity services, providing the internet economic approach on city networks. Results indicate that the core cities of online commodity service networks are mainly concentrated in eastern coastal areas. In addition, spatial polarization and layer structure of network connections are obvious, descending from the centers in eastern China to peripheral cities in central and western China. Online commodity services of different cities show apparent differences and uncertainties in terms of specialization rates of international connection, which presents a tendency toward diversification. Online commodity service networks are not only associated with goods production, supply, and consumption in physical space but also reflect virtual information, capital, and technology flows, thus providing a new empirical approach for understanding city networks in information and internet economic age.
文摘Forecasting mineral commodity(MC) prices has been an important and difficult task traditionally addressed by econometric, stochastic-Gaussian and time series techniques. None of these techniques has proved suitable to represent the dynamic behavior and time related nature of MC markets. Chaos theory(CT) and machine learning(ML) techniques are able to represent the temporal relationships of variables and their evolution has been used separately to better understand and represent MC markets. CT can determine a system's dynamics in the form of time delay and embedding dimension. However, this information has often been solely used to describe the system's behavior and not for forecasting.Compared to traditional techniques, ML has better performance for forecasting MC prices, due to its capacity for finding patterns governing the system's dynamics. However, the rational nature of economic problems increases concerns regarding the use of hidden patterns for forecasting. Therefore, it is uncertain if variables selected and hidden patterns found by ML can represent the economic rationality.Despite their refined features for representing system dynamics, the separate use of either CT or ML does not provide the expected realistic accuracy. By itself, neither CT nor ML are able to identify the main variables affecting systems, recognize the relation and influence of variables though time, and discover hidden patterns governing systems evolution simultaneously. This paper discusses the necessity to adapt and combine CT and ML to obtain a more realistic representation of MC market behavior to forecast long-term price trends.
文摘Fluctuations in commodity prices should influence mining operations to continually update and adjust their mine plans in order to capture additional value under new market conditions. One of the adjustments is the change in production sequencing. This paper seeks to present a method for quantifying the net present value(NPV) that may be directly attributed to the change in commodity prices. The evaluation is conducted across ten copper price scenarios. Discrete event simulation combined with mixed integer programming was used to attain a viable production strategy and to generate optimal mine plans. The analysis indicates that an increase in prices results in an increased in the NPV from$96.57M to $755.65M. In an environment where mining operations must be striving to gain as much value as possible from the rights to exploit a finite resource, it is not appropriate to keep operating under the same mine plan if commodity prices alter during the course of operations.
文摘The challenge Africa faces the most is how to feed the 2.4 billion people in 2050. This will require a transformational agriculture. Africa doesn’t need subsistence agriculture, but rather agriculture linked to the market where market demand and the consuming habits are taken in consideration. Agriculture evolves in an environment where small holders are linked to markets (national and regional), where economies of complementarity and economies of scale are taken advantage of by producers and private sector. In short, Africa will need a paradigm shift to industrialise and commercialise its agriculture sector in order to increase food production, and income and to create jobs in and outside the sector. Africa needs agribusiness and agro-industries to domesticate the benefits of the sector, to create wealth in the sector and retain that wealth in the continent. Agricultural commodities regional value chains for increased food should be the target for Africa. The continent remains the region with the highest prevalence of under-nourishment. Since agriculture remains the mainstay of most African economies except the mineral producers, the sector deserves a close attention from leaders. It accounts for 65% of employment and 40% of Africa’s export earnings and accounts for 17% of the GDP. This shows how important the sector is. Agriculture needs to be seen as a conduit for farmers to get connected to markets, a conduit for revenue, for jobs and for transformation. Africa needs to come back on the international scene as food sufficient continent and even food exporter. This can be achieved only with a stable, productive agricultural resource base. Thus, achieving and sustaining food security and economic prosperity in Africa will require significant efforts to modernize the continent’s agriculture sector through injection of agribusiness and agro-industries and through the application of science and technology in agriculture. In essence, agriculture needs to be viewed as knowledge based entrepreneurial activity. Smart investments in agriculture will have multiplier effects for the whole economy and hence induce prosperity to other sectors. In recent years, a renewed focus on agriculture has been evident in policy and development agendas across the African continent. This paper outlines the status of agriculture, agribusiness and agro-industries in Africa, their role in the agenda of agricultural transformation and economic transformation and the focus on regional value chain to increase food production, transformation and trade. The paper adopts a new thinking in agriculture, which reflects a regional value chain approach. The author covers such issues as: need for agricultural transformation, the role of value chain in agricultural sector, the need for regional value chain for increased income and increased food, the role of markets and the common denominator of all, the regional integration to push forward the African agriculture agenda. Evidence shows that it is agricultural growth, through its leverage effects on the rest of the economy that typically enables poor countries, poor regions and ultimately poor households to take the first steps toward economic transformation. Therefore agricultural productivity, at the small holder’s level, has the potential to lift millions of Africa’s vulnerable out of poverty and provide sustainable jobs. Other factors, namely “the rapid urbanization” and “increased population growth”, are quoted to be of critical importance. Africa population is projected to double, attaining the 2.3 billion people mark over the next 40 years representing half of the globe’s total population. This could trigger competition for resources and can have devastating effects on natural resources if not rightly channelled.
基金Supported by Project of Introducing International Advanced Forestry Science and Technology(2014-4-45)
文摘The rural commodity economy in the Edo period developed by leaps and bounds under the influence of institution,policy,technology and other factors. From the mid 17 th century,the specific area of cash crops gradually took shape in Japan and the largescale cultivation of cash crops greatly promoted the development of rural handicrafts,thereby creating the conditions for the initiation of the capitalist relations of production. The development of rural commodity economy not only changed the traditional mode of operation and production of Japanese farmers,but also accelerated the class differentiation,shook and disintegrated the economic foundation and class basis of Bakuhan society,and created the preconditions for the later Meiji Restoration.
文摘In this paper, three types of modeling of diffusion equations for price changing of commodity are studied. In which, the partial derivatives of price of commodity respected to time on the left hand side are integer-derivative, fractal derivative, and fractional derivative respectively;while just a second order derivative respected to space is considered on the right hand side. The solutions of these diffusion equations are obtained by method of departing variables and initial boundary conditions, by translation of variables, and by translation of operators. The definitions of order of commodity x and the distance between commodity?xi and xj are defined as [1]. Examples of calculation of price of pork, beef and mutton mainly due to price raising of pork in 2007-07 to 2008-02 inChina are given with same market data as [1]. Conclusion is made.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71273104)Soft Science Project of the Ministry of Agriculture(Z201215)
文摘Fresh agricultural commodities have been entering the era of network marketing. However,the coverage population is still relatively small. In this paper,more than 400 online shopping customer survey data are statistically analyzed based on perceived risk multidimensional model by factor analysis method to classify the potential customers' perceived risk,concluding that food safety risks,mental health risk,relative convenience risk,liquidity risk,privacy risk and time risk are the most important risk factors that impact potential customers online shopping of fresh agricultural commodities. By using customers prediction model which is based on the classification and prediction methods to mining potential customers,it comes to the conclusion that men are more likely to purchase fresh agricultural commodities online,specifically,in the male sample,those whose average monthly net purchase cost equals to or is higher than 51 yuan or whose online shopping time equals to or is longer than 3 years and at the same time whose age is younger than 30 are the most potential customers. Finally,it puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of risk control and effective customer acquisition.
基金Supported by the Research Fund of Heilongjiang Science & Technology Department(GB08D101-2)
文摘Taking a total of 13 areas in Heilongjiang commodity grain base as the research objects,9 indices are selected,which are regional GDP(X1),per capita GDP(X2),total value of tertiary industry(X3),financial revenue(X4),urban fixed assets investment(X5),average salary(X6),gross industrial output value(X7),total output value of farming,forestry,husbandry and fishing(X8),and retail sales of social consumer goods(X9).Based on this,evaluation index system of regional economy is established.According to the 2006-2008 Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook,average values within 3 years are used as analytical data.Factor Analysis Method is adopted to establish regression model and to carry out comprehensive analysis.Result shows that Heilongjiang commodity grain base has extremely uneven regional economic development in different areas.According to the score order and actual situation,the 13 areas are divided into 4 types.The first and second types are Harbin and Daqing,respectively.The third type is Qiqihaer,Suihua,Mudanjiang and Jiamusi.And the forth type is Jixi,Shuangyashan,Heihe,Yichun,Qitaihe,Hegang and Daxinganling.Suggestions for the development of these areas are put forward.
基金supported by Shanghai Municipal Philosophical and Social Science Planning General Program(2017BJL005)
文摘This paper investigates the structural upgrade of China's commodity trade over the past two decades from the perspectives of commodity categories, technical value-added and quality level. Based on the analysis of commodity categories, technical value-added and quality, this paper arrives at the following findings: High technology manufactures accounted for a growing share of China's commodity export, the overall technical level of Chinese exports significantly upgraded, and most of Chinese commodities upgraded from low quality to medium-and high-quality levels. As can be seen from the structure of China's bilateral trade with its five major trading partners, China's exporting goods remained inferior to importing goods in terms of technology and quality despite their quality upgrades.
文摘Background:This paper examines the pattern of the volatility of the daily return of select commodity futures in India and explores the extent to which the select commodity futures satisfy the Samuelson hypothesis.Methods:One commodity future from each group of futures is chosen for the analysis.The select commodities are potato,gold,crude oil,and mentha oil.The data are collected from MCX India over the period 2004–2012.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analysis.The GARCH model is introduced for examining the volatility of commodity futures.One of the key contributions of the paper is the use of theβterm of the GARCH model to address the Samuelson hypothesis.Result:The Samuelson hypothesis,when tested by daily returns and using standard deviation as a crude measure of volatility,is supported for gold futures only,as per the value ofβ(the GARCH effect).The values of the rolling standard deviation,used as a measure of the trend in the volatility of daily returns,exhibits a decreasing volatility trend for potato futures and an increasing volatility trend for gold futures in all contract cycles.The result of the GARCH(1,1)model suggests the presence of persistent volatility and the prevalence of long memory for the select commodity futures,except potato futures.Conclusions:The study sheds light on significant characteristics of the daily return volatility of the commodity futures under analysis.The results suggest the existence of a developed market for the gold and crude oil futures(with volatility clustering)and show that the maturity effect is only valid for the gold futures.
文摘This research sheds light on the causal link between commodity price indexes,i.e.,the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index,in the global market,using wavelet coherence,Toda–Yamamoto causality,and gradual shift causality tests over the period 1992M1 to 2019M12.Findings from the wavelet power spectrum and partial wavelet coherence reveal that:(1)there was significant volatility in the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index between 2004 and 2014 at different frequencies;and(2)commodity price indexes significantly caused the energy price index at different time periods and frequencies.It is noteworthy that the outcomes of the Toda–Yamamoto causality and gradual-shift causality tests are in line with the results of wavelet coherence.
文摘This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2017.The relationship between exchange rate and each commodity price is examined in terms of Engle-Granger and threshold cointegrations.The estimated results provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and show that the adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium position are asymmetric in the short run.Furthermore,this study finds evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from the nominal exchange rate to oil price in the long and short run using a spectral frequency domain causality application.There is also empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between the nominal exchange rate and palm oil price,rubber price,and natural gas price in the long and short run.Overall,the findings have significant implications for the current debate on the future of primary commodities in Malaysia.
