Achieving accurate speed prediction provides the most critical support parameter for high-level energy management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Nowadays,people often drive a vehicle on fixed routes in their dail...Achieving accurate speed prediction provides the most critical support parameter for high-level energy management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Nowadays,people often drive a vehicle on fixed routes in their daily travels and accurate speed predictions of these routes are possible with random prediction and machine learning,but the prediction accuracy still needs to be improved.The prediction accuracy of traditional prediction algorithms is difficult to further improve after reaching a certain accuracy;problems,such as over fitting,occur in the process of improving prediction accuracy.The combined prediction model proposed in this paper can abandon the transitional dependence on a single prediction.By combining the two prediction algorithms,the fusion of prediction performance is achieved,the limit of the single prediction performance is crossed,and the goal of improving vehicle speed prediction performance is achieved.In this paper,an extraction method suitable for fixed route vehicle speed is designed.The application of Markov and back propagation(BP)neural network in predictions is introduced.Three new combined prediction methods,all named Markov and BP Neural Network(MBNN)combined prediction algorithm,are proposed,which make full use of the advantages of Markov and BP neural network algorithms.Finally,the comparison among the prediction methods has been carried out.The results show that the three MBNN models have improved by about 19%,28%,and 29%compared with the Markov prediction model,which has better performance in the single prediction models.Overall,the MBNN combined prediction models can improve the prediction accuracy by 25.3%on average,which provides important support for the possible optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle energy consumption.展开更多
A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorith...A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorithm of system identification, which can gradually forget past information. The grey series part of the model uses an equal dimension new information model (EDNIM) and it applies 3 points smoothing method to preprocess the original data and modify remnant difference by GM(1,1). Through the optimization of the coefficient of the model, we are able to minimize the error variance of predictive data. A case study shows that the proposed method achieved high calculation precision and speed and it can be used to obtain the predictive value in real time state estimation of power distribution networks.展开更多
The comprehensive status of blast furnaces was one of the most important factors affecting their economy,quality,and longev-ity.The blast furnace comprehensive status had the nature of“black box,”and it was“unpredi...The comprehensive status of blast furnaces was one of the most important factors affecting their economy,quality,and longev-ity.The blast furnace comprehensive status had the nature of“black box,”and it was“unpredictable.”In this study,a blast furnace com-prehensive status score and prediction method based on a cascade system and a combined model were proposed to address this issue.A dual cascade evaluation system was developed by integrating subjective and objective weighting methods.The analytic hierarchy process,coefficient of variation,entropy weight method,and impart combinatorial games were jointly employed to determine the optimal weight distribution across indicators.Categorized statuses(raw material,gas flow,furnace body,furnace cylinder,and iron-slag)were evaluated.Based on the five categories of the status data,the second cascade was applied to upgrade the quantitative evaluation of the comprehens-ive status.The weights of the different categories were 0.22,0.15,0.22,0.21,and 0.20,respectively.According to the data analysis,the results of the comprehensive status score closely matched the on-site production logs.Based on the blast furnace smelting period,the maximal information coefficient method was applied to the 100 parameters that were most relevant to the comprehensive status.A com-bined prediction model for a comprehensive status score was designed using bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)and categorical boosting(CatBoost).The test results indicated that the combined model reduced the mean absolute error by an average of 0.275 and increased the hit rate by an average of 5.65 percentage points compared to BiLSTM or CatBoost alone.When the er-ror range was±2.5,the combined model predicted a hit rate of 91.66%for the next hour’s comprehensive status score,and its high accur-acy was deemed satisfactory for the field.SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)and regression fitting were applied to analyze the lin-ear quantitative relationship between the key variables and the comprehensive status score.When the furnace bottom center temperature was increased by 10℃,the comprehensive status score increased by 0.44.This method contributes to a more precise management and control of the comprehensive status of the blast furnace on-site.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51775478)Hebei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.E2016203173,E2020203078).
文摘Achieving accurate speed prediction provides the most critical support parameter for high-level energy management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Nowadays,people often drive a vehicle on fixed routes in their daily travels and accurate speed predictions of these routes are possible with random prediction and machine learning,but the prediction accuracy still needs to be improved.The prediction accuracy of traditional prediction algorithms is difficult to further improve after reaching a certain accuracy;problems,such as over fitting,occur in the process of improving prediction accuracy.The combined prediction model proposed in this paper can abandon the transitional dependence on a single prediction.By combining the two prediction algorithms,the fusion of prediction performance is achieved,the limit of the single prediction performance is crossed,and the goal of improving vehicle speed prediction performance is achieved.In this paper,an extraction method suitable for fixed route vehicle speed is designed.The application of Markov and back propagation(BP)neural network in predictions is introduced.Three new combined prediction methods,all named Markov and BP Neural Network(MBNN)combined prediction algorithm,are proposed,which make full use of the advantages of Markov and BP neural network algorithms.Finally,the comparison among the prediction methods has been carried out.The results show that the three MBNN models have improved by about 19%,28%,and 29%compared with the Markov prediction model,which has better performance in the single prediction models.Overall,the MBNN combined prediction models can improve the prediction accuracy by 25.3%on average,which provides important support for the possible optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle energy consumption.
文摘A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorithm of system identification, which can gradually forget past information. The grey series part of the model uses an equal dimension new information model (EDNIM) and it applies 3 points smoothing method to preprocess the original data and modify remnant difference by GM(1,1). Through the optimization of the coefficient of the model, we are able to minimize the error variance of predictive data. A case study shows that the proposed method achieved high calculation precision and speed and it can be used to obtain the predictive value in real time state estimation of power distribution networks.
基金supported by the Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52404343)the General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274326)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.N2425031)the Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan of China(No.ZX20220553)the Liaoning Province Science and Technology Plan Joint Program,China(Key Research and Development Program Project)(No.2023JH2/101800058).
文摘The comprehensive status of blast furnaces was one of the most important factors affecting their economy,quality,and longev-ity.The blast furnace comprehensive status had the nature of“black box,”and it was“unpredictable.”In this study,a blast furnace com-prehensive status score and prediction method based on a cascade system and a combined model were proposed to address this issue.A dual cascade evaluation system was developed by integrating subjective and objective weighting methods.The analytic hierarchy process,coefficient of variation,entropy weight method,and impart combinatorial games were jointly employed to determine the optimal weight distribution across indicators.Categorized statuses(raw material,gas flow,furnace body,furnace cylinder,and iron-slag)were evaluated.Based on the five categories of the status data,the second cascade was applied to upgrade the quantitative evaluation of the comprehens-ive status.The weights of the different categories were 0.22,0.15,0.22,0.21,and 0.20,respectively.According to the data analysis,the results of the comprehensive status score closely matched the on-site production logs.Based on the blast furnace smelting period,the maximal information coefficient method was applied to the 100 parameters that were most relevant to the comprehensive status.A com-bined prediction model for a comprehensive status score was designed using bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)and categorical boosting(CatBoost).The test results indicated that the combined model reduced the mean absolute error by an average of 0.275 and increased the hit rate by an average of 5.65 percentage points compared to BiLSTM or CatBoost alone.When the er-ror range was±2.5,the combined model predicted a hit rate of 91.66%for the next hour’s comprehensive status score,and its high accur-acy was deemed satisfactory for the field.SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)and regression fitting were applied to analyze the lin-ear quantitative relationship between the key variables and the comprehensive status score.When the furnace bottom center temperature was increased by 10℃,the comprehensive status score increased by 0.44.This method contributes to a more precise management and control of the comprehensive status of the blast furnace on-site.
