The method linking general circulation models' (GCMs') outputs with crop growthsimulation models' inputs has been the first choice in the studies of impacts of climate change.Changes in climatic variabilit...The method linking general circulation models' (GCMs') outputs with crop growthsimulation models' inputs has been the first choice in the studies of impacts of climate change.Changes in climatic variability, however were not considered in most studies due to limitedknowledge concerned Changes in climatic means derived from a general circulation model DKRZOPYC were input into a stochastic weather generator WGEN run for synthetic daily climate scenarios.Monte Carlo stochastic sampling method was adopted to generate climate change scenarios withvarious possible climatic veriabilities. A dynamic simulation model for maize growth anddevelopment of MZMOD was used to assess the potenhal implication of the changes in both climaticmeans and variability nd the boacts of crop management in changing climate on maize productionin Northeast China. The results indicated that maize yield would be reduced to various degrees inmost of the sensitivity experiments of climatic variability associating with the shortening of theduration of phenological phase of different sowing dates. The Anpacts of the diverse distributions ofclimatic factors detetmined by multiple changes in climatic variability on maire production and itsvariation, however, are not identical and have distinct regional disparities. Yield reduction caused bychanges in climatic means may be alleviated or aggravated by didributions of certain climaticvariables in line with the corresponding climatic variability according to the sensitivity analyses.Consequently, the hypothesis keeping climatic variability constant in the traditional research imposesrestriction on the overall inveshgation of the impacts of climate change on maize production.展开更多
In recent years,the water level in the Mekong Delta(MD)has undergone changes,attributed to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.Declining water levels have had implications for various aspects of...In recent years,the water level in the Mekong Delta(MD)has undergone changes,attributed to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.Declining water levels have had implications for various aspects of life and aquatic ecosystems in the lower basin water bodies.Analyzing long-term trends in rainfall and water levels is crucial for enhancing our understanding.This study aims to examine the evolving patterns of water level and rainfall in the region.Data on water levels and rainfall from observation stations were gathered from the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting,Vietnam,spanning from 2000 to 2014.The assessment of homogeneity and identification of trend changes were conducted using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test(SNHT)and the Mann-Kendall test.The results indicate that changes in water levels at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations have been observed since 2010 due to the operation of flow-regulating structures in the upper Mekong River.Following the commencement of upstream dam operations,the water level at the headwater stations of the Mekong River has been higher than the long-term average during the dry season and lower than the average during the flood season.The study findings highlight the influence of altered rainfall patterns under the impact of climate variability(ICC)on water level trends in the study area.While rainfall plays a significant role in increasing water levels during the flood season,the operation of hydropower dams(UHDs)stands out as the primary factor driving water level reductions in the study area.展开更多
Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural water resources,particularly in regions like Vietnam's Plain of Reeds that heavily utilize rain-fed conditions.This study employs the FAO-AquaCrop model to es...Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural water resources,particularly in regions like Vietnam's Plain of Reeds that heavily utilize rain-fed conditions.This study employs the FAO-AquaCrop model to estimate current and future irrigation water needs for rice cultivation in this critical subregion,aiming to identify optimal sowing schedules(OSS)that enhance rainwater utilization and reduce irrigation dependency.The model was driven by current climate data and future projections(2041-2070 and 2071-2099)derived from downscaled Global Circulation Models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The AquaCrop model demonstrated robust performance during validation and calibration,with d-values(0.82-0.93)and R²values(0.85-0.92)indicating strong predictive accuracy for rice yield.Simulation results for efficient irrigation water potential(IWP)under RCP4.5 revealed that strategic shifts in sowing dates can substantially alter water requirements;for instance,advancing the winter-spring sowing to December 5th decreased IWP by 15.6%in the 2041-2070 period,while delaying summer-autumn crop sowing to April 20th increased IWP by 48.6%due to greater reliance on irrigation as rainfall patterns shift.Similar dynamic responses were observed for the 2071-2099 period and for autumn-winter crops.These findings underscore that AquaCrop modeling can effectively predict future irrigation needs and that adjusting cultivation calendars presents a viable,low-cost adaptation strategy.This approach allows farmers in the Plain of Reeds to optimize rainwater use,thereby reducing dependency on supplementary irrigation and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate variability,contributing to more sustainable agricultural water management.展开更多
Climate changes are affecting water resources around the world and the Mo Basin (MB) in Togo is no exception to this observation. This study aims at analyzing the influence of hydro-climatical data in the Mo Basin. To...Climate changes are affecting water resources around the world and the Mo Basin (MB) in Togo is no exception to this observation. This study aims at analyzing the influence of hydro-climatical data in the Mo Basin. To achieve this, Pettit’s stationarity break tests, Hubert’s segmentation, Nicholson’s [1] reduced centered index, Lamb [2] and flow coefficients have been applied. In addition, temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, relative humidity and discharge data from 1961 to 2018 have been used for this purpose. While rainfall is decreasing despite an increase of 22.8% at the Fazao station and 2.8% at Sotouboua station, the flow coefficients evolve synchronously with the precipitation data and show a strong link between both parameters. The climatic balance sheet is positive six months in the year (May to October), throughout the period of observation (1961-2018). Only 1962 and 1963 recorded an annual rainfall greater than the annual evapotranspiration. The other years undergo a climatic drought, increasingly pronounced, which strongly impacts the hydrology of rivers. This has a strong impact on water resources and food security and resources of the Fazao-Malfakassa reserve in the region.展开更多
In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This s...In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.展开更多
Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into...Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.展开更多
The temperature is one of the most important factors in weather and climate forecasting.Studying its behaviour is crucial to understanding climate variability,which could vary spatially and temporally at local,regiona...The temperature is one of the most important factors in weather and climate forecasting.Studying its behaviour is crucial to understanding climate variability,which could vary spatially and temporally at local,regional,and global scales.Several recent studies on air temperature findings show that the Earth’s near surface air temperature increased between 0.6℃ and 0.8℃ throughout the twentieth century.Using temperature records from ten meteorological stations,this study examined climate variability in Rwanda from the 1930s to 2014.The air temperature data were collected from Meteo Rwanda.Before making the analysis,the authors used software,such as Excel 2007 and INSTAT to control the quality of the raw data.The analysis of maxima and minima indicated that the trends of maximum air temperature were positive and significant at height meteorological stations,whereas the trends for minimum air temperature were found to be at 10 meteorological stations.For all parameters analysed,Kigali Airport meteorological station indicated the higher significance of the trends.The majority of meteorological stations showed an increase in both hot days and nights,confirming Rwanda’s warming over time.The analysis of average seasonal air temperature showed almost similar trends even though not all were significant.This similarity in trends could be attributed to the fact that Rwanda’s short and long dry seasons coincide with rainy seasons.展开更多
This study investigates trends in extreme precipitation events(EPEs)across Antarctica from 1979 to 2023,analyzing changes in EPE frequency,intensity,and the proportion of extreme to total precipitation.Using Self-Orga...This study investigates trends in extreme precipitation events(EPEs)across Antarctica from 1979 to 2023,analyzing changes in EPE frequency,intensity,and the proportion of extreme to total precipitation.Using Self-Organizing Map(SOM)techniques,the study distinguishes the contributions from thermodynamic,dynamic,and interaction components in explaining these trends.Positive EPE occurrence trends are observed across the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas,Dronning Maud Land,and parts of the Southern Ocean,with declines limited to Queen Mary Land.Thermodynamic factors,responsible for 96.0%of the overall trend,are driven by increased water vapor content in polar air masses.Dynamic contributions,representing 10.8%,are linked to a strengthened Amundsen Sea Low(ASL)associated with the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)and Pacific South American(PSA)trends.Interaction effects make a slightly negative contribution(-6.8%)to the overall trend.Variations in water vapor transport and vertical velocity tied to annual 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies further explain EPE trends.These findings provide insight into the atmospheric processes that influence Antarctic EPEs,with implications for understanding the climatic impact on the polar environment.展开更多
Malaria remains a major public health challenge necessitating accurate predictive models to inform effective intervention strategies in Sierra Leone. This study compares the performance of Holt-Winters’ Exponential S...Malaria remains a major public health challenge necessitating accurate predictive models to inform effective intervention strategies in Sierra Leone. This study compares the performance of Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using data from January 2018 to December 2023, incorporating both historical case records from Sierra Leone’s Health Management Information System (HMIS) and meteorological variables including humidity, precipitation, and temperature. The ANN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.74% before including climatic variables. This was further reduced to 3.9% with the inclusion of climatic variables, outperforming traditional models like Holt-Winters and Harmonic, which yielded MAPEs of 22.53% and 17.90% respectively. The ANN’s success is attributed to its ability to capture complex, non-linear relationships in the data, particularly when enhanced with relevant climatic variables. Using the optimized ANN model, we forecasted malaria cases for the next 24 months, predicting a steady increase from January 2024 to December 2025, with seasonal peaks. This study underscores the potential of machine learning approaches, particularly ANNs, in epidemiological modelling and highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors into malaria prediction models, recommending the ANN model for informing more targeted and efficient malaria control strategies to improve public health outcomes in Sierra Leone and similar settings.展开更多
The weather in Australia is significantly influenced by water vapor evaporated fromwarm ocean surfaces,which is closely associated with various extreme weather events in the region,such as floods,droughts,and bushfire...The weather in Australia is significantly influenced by water vapor evaporated fromwarm ocean surfaces,which is closely associated with various extreme weather events in the region,such as floods,droughts,and bushfires.This study utilizes Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)data from 15 Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)stations spanning 2010 to 2019 to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric water vapor across Australia,aiming to improve the accuracy of forecasting hazardous weather events.The results indicate distinct regional features in the spatial distribution of PWV.PWV gradually decreases from coastal areas toward inland regions and increases from south to north.Temporally,the overall trend of PWV remains consistent.From an annual trend perspective,most areas exhibit a decline in PWV content,with the exception of the southwestern coastal region,which shows an increasing trend.Furthermore,the study explores the correlations between PWV content and elevation,latitude,and longitude.Among these,latitude demonstrates the strongest correlation with PWV,with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.88,highlighting the significant impact of latitude on water vapor distribution.展开更多
Understanding the genetic diversity–area relationship(GAR)is essential for comprehending how species adapt to environmental changes,as genetic diversity is an indicator of a species’adaptive potential.Variation in e...Understanding the genetic diversity–area relationship(GAR)is essential for comprehending how species adapt to environmental changes,as genetic diversity is an indicator of a species’adaptive potential.Variation in environmental adaptation capacity exists among species and animal taxa with different distribution areas,highlighting the importance of understanding the GAR.To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the GAR in terrestrial vertebrates,we assessed both haplotype diversity–area and nucleotide diversity–area relationships using 25,453 cytochrome c oxidase subunit I(COI)sequences from 142 amphibian species,574 bird species,and 342 mammal species.We found that both measures of genetic diversity increased with species range size across major animal groups.Nevertheless,the GAR did not differ among animal groups,while haplotype diversity performed better than nucleotide diversity in profiling the GAR,as indicated by higher R2 values.The difference in the modeling fit may stem from the distinct biological and mathematical significance of nucleotide diversity and haplotype diversity.These results suggest that the GAR follows similar rules among different animal taxa.Furthermore,haplotype diversity may serve as a more reliable indicator for assessing the potential effects of area size changes on animal populations and provide better guidance for conserving genetic diversity.展开更多
Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change o...Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change of China were published in 2020 and 2022, respectively.However, no concrete results on the long-term trends in wave changes in China have been obtained. In this study, long-term trends in extreme wave elements over the past 55 years were investigated using wave data from five in situ observation sites(i.e., Lao Hu Tan, Cheng Shan Tou,Ri Zhao, Nan Ji, Wei Zhou) along the coast of China. The five stations showed different trends in wave height. Results show a general downward trend in wave heights at the LHT and CST stations, reaching-0.78 and-1.44 cm/a, respectively, in summer at middle and high latitudes. NJI stations at middle-to-low latitudes are influenced by the winter monsoon and summer tropical cyclones, showing a substantial increase in extreme wave heights(0.7 cm/a in winter and 2.68 cm/a in summer). The cumulative duration of H_(1/10) ≥ 3 m at NJI and RZH has grown since 1990.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and ...[Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and sunshine) of 55 meteorological stations in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 and the yield data of winter wheat,by using the linear regression,correlated coefficient and climatic tendency rate,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural climatic resources (sunshine hours,temperature and precipitation) in northern winter wheat zone were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 all presented certain zonal distribution in the space.The precipitation and temperature gradually decreased from south to north.The sunshine hours gradually increased from south to north.The annual average temperature overall presented rise trend in northern winter wheat zone in 44 years,but the rise rate had difference in the different areas.The rise of annual average temperature in the high-latitude zone was more obvious than that in the low-latitude zone.The annual rainfall overall presented decrease trend,and the tendency rate of annual precipitation had significant difference in the different areas.The decrease rates of rainfalls in the central and western areas were bigger than that in other areas.The annual sunshine hours overall presented decline trend.In most areas,the tendency rate of annual sunshine hours was negative.But there was certain difference in the different areas.The zones where the decrease amplitude was smaller scattered in the west,and included central Shaanxi,south of Shanxi and some areas in southeast of Shandong.The decrease amplitudes were bigger in south of Henan,northwest of Shandong and south of Hebei.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for understanding the historical evolution of climate in northern winter wheat zone.展开更多
Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that...Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.展开更多
A wide variety of studies have estimated the magnitude of global terrestrial net primary production （NPP）, but its variations, both spatially and temporally, still remain uncertain. By using an improved process-base...A wide variety of studies have estimated the magnitude of global terrestrial net primary production （NPP）, but its variations, both spatially and temporally, still remain uncertain. By using an improved process-based terrestrial ecosystem model （DLEM, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model）, we provide an estimate of global terrestrial NPP induced by multiple environmental factors and examine the response of terrestrial NPP to climate variability at biome and global levels and along latitudes throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The model simulation estimates an average global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 Pg C yr-1 during 2000-2009, varying from 52.8 Pg C yr-1 in the dry year of 2002 to 56.4 Pg C yr-1 in the wet year of 2008. In wet years, a large increase in terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean was prevalent in Amazonia, Africa and Australia. In dry years, however, we found a 3.2% reduction in global terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean, primarily due to limited moisture supply in tropical regions. At a global level, precipitation explained approximately 63% of the variation in terrestrial NPP, while the rest was attributed to changes in temperature and other environmental factors. Precipitation was the major factor determining inter-annual variation in terrestrial NPP in low-latitude regions. However, in midand high-latitude regions, temperature variability largely controlled the magnitude of terrestrial NPP. Our results imply that pro- jected climate warming and increasing climate extreme events would alter the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global terrestrial NPP.展开更多
As the largest wetland in the North China Plain （NCP）, the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. Ir the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in th...As the largest wetland in the North China Plain （NCP）, the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. Ir the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate vari- ability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmer,tal issues. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment （a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin） from 1960 to 2008. Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly （P〉0.05） by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identi- fied around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations ac- counted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%--62%. Therefore, the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and in- tegrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.展开更多
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly...The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.展开更多
A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nu...A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.展开更多
Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage （TWS） changes over the Pearl River Basin （PRB） for the period 200...Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage （TWS） changes over the Pearl River Basin （PRB） for the period 2003-Nov. 2014. TWS estimates from GRACE generally show good agreement with those from two hydrological models GLDAS and WGHM. But they show different capability of detecting significant TWS changes over the PRB. Among them, WGHM is likely to underestimate the seasonal variability of TWS, while GRACE detects long- term water depletions over the upper PRB as was done by hydrological models, and observes significant water increases around the Longtan Reservoir （LTR） due to water impoundment. The heavy drought in 2011 caused by the persistent precipitation deficit has resulted in extreme low surface runoff and water level of the LTR. Moreover, large variability of summer and autumn precipitation may easily trigger floods and droughts in the rainy season in the PRB, especially for summer, as a high correlation of 0.89 was found between precipitation and surface runoff. Generally, the PRB TWS was negatively correlated with El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. However, the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） may impact this relationship, and the significant TWS anomaly was likely to occur in the peak of PDO phase as they agree well in both of the magnitude and timing of peaks. This indicates that GRACE-based TWS could be a valuable parameter for studying climatic in- fluences in the PRB.展开更多
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field i...Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.展开更多
文摘The method linking general circulation models' (GCMs') outputs with crop growthsimulation models' inputs has been the first choice in the studies of impacts of climate change.Changes in climatic variability, however were not considered in most studies due to limitedknowledge concerned Changes in climatic means derived from a general circulation model DKRZOPYC were input into a stochastic weather generator WGEN run for synthetic daily climate scenarios.Monte Carlo stochastic sampling method was adopted to generate climate change scenarios withvarious possible climatic veriabilities. A dynamic simulation model for maize growth anddevelopment of MZMOD was used to assess the potenhal implication of the changes in both climaticmeans and variability nd the boacts of crop management in changing climate on maize productionin Northeast China. The results indicated that maize yield would be reduced to various degrees inmost of the sensitivity experiments of climatic variability associating with the shortening of theduration of phenological phase of different sowing dates. The Anpacts of the diverse distributions ofclimatic factors detetmined by multiple changes in climatic variability on maire production and itsvariation, however, are not identical and have distinct regional disparities. Yield reduction caused bychanges in climatic means may be alleviated or aggravated by didributions of certain climaticvariables in line with the corresponding climatic variability according to the sensitivity analyses.Consequently, the hypothesis keeping climatic variability constant in the traditional research imposesrestriction on the overall inveshgation of the impacts of climate change on maize production.
基金funded by the University of Science,VNU-HCM under grant number T2022-10 project entitled“Water level variability in the Mekong Delta under the impacts of anthropogenic and climatic factors”.
文摘In recent years,the water level in the Mekong Delta(MD)has undergone changes,attributed to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.Declining water levels have had implications for various aspects of life and aquatic ecosystems in the lower basin water bodies.Analyzing long-term trends in rainfall and water levels is crucial for enhancing our understanding.This study aims to examine the evolving patterns of water level and rainfall in the region.Data on water levels and rainfall from observation stations were gathered from the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting,Vietnam,spanning from 2000 to 2014.The assessment of homogeneity and identification of trend changes were conducted using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test(SNHT)and the Mann-Kendall test.The results indicate that changes in water levels at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations have been observed since 2010 due to the operation of flow-regulating structures in the upper Mekong River.Following the commencement of upstream dam operations,the water level at the headwater stations of the Mekong River has been higher than the long-term average during the dry season and lower than the average during the flood season.The study findings highlight the influence of altered rainfall patterns under the impact of climate variability(ICC)on water level trends in the study area.While rainfall plays a significant role in increasing water levels during the flood season,the operation of hydropower dams(UHDs)stands out as the primary factor driving water level reductions in the study area.
文摘Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural water resources,particularly in regions like Vietnam's Plain of Reeds that heavily utilize rain-fed conditions.This study employs the FAO-AquaCrop model to estimate current and future irrigation water needs for rice cultivation in this critical subregion,aiming to identify optimal sowing schedules(OSS)that enhance rainwater utilization and reduce irrigation dependency.The model was driven by current climate data and future projections(2041-2070 and 2071-2099)derived from downscaled Global Circulation Models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The AquaCrop model demonstrated robust performance during validation and calibration,with d-values(0.82-0.93)and R²values(0.85-0.92)indicating strong predictive accuracy for rice yield.Simulation results for efficient irrigation water potential(IWP)under RCP4.5 revealed that strategic shifts in sowing dates can substantially alter water requirements;for instance,advancing the winter-spring sowing to December 5th decreased IWP by 15.6%in the 2041-2070 period,while delaying summer-autumn crop sowing to April 20th increased IWP by 48.6%due to greater reliance on irrigation as rainfall patterns shift.Similar dynamic responses were observed for the 2071-2099 period and for autumn-winter crops.These findings underscore that AquaCrop modeling can effectively predict future irrigation needs and that adjusting cultivation calendars presents a viable,low-cost adaptation strategy.This approach allows farmers in the Plain of Reeds to optimize rainwater use,thereby reducing dependency on supplementary irrigation and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate variability,contributing to more sustainable agricultural water management.
文摘Climate changes are affecting water resources around the world and the Mo Basin (MB) in Togo is no exception to this observation. This study aims at analyzing the influence of hydro-climatical data in the Mo Basin. To achieve this, Pettit’s stationarity break tests, Hubert’s segmentation, Nicholson’s [1] reduced centered index, Lamb [2] and flow coefficients have been applied. In addition, temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, relative humidity and discharge data from 1961 to 2018 have been used for this purpose. While rainfall is decreasing despite an increase of 22.8% at the Fazao station and 2.8% at Sotouboua station, the flow coefficients evolve synchronously with the precipitation data and show a strong link between both parameters. The climatic balance sheet is positive six months in the year (May to October), throughout the period of observation (1961-2018). Only 1962 and 1963 recorded an annual rainfall greater than the annual evapotranspiration. The other years undergo a climatic drought, increasingly pronounced, which strongly impacts the hydrology of rivers. This has a strong impact on water resources and food security and resources of the Fazao-Malfakassa reserve in the region.
文摘In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.
文摘Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.
文摘The temperature is one of the most important factors in weather and climate forecasting.Studying its behaviour is crucial to understanding climate variability,which could vary spatially and temporally at local,regional,and global scales.Several recent studies on air temperature findings show that the Earth’s near surface air temperature increased between 0.6℃ and 0.8℃ throughout the twentieth century.Using temperature records from ten meteorological stations,this study examined climate variability in Rwanda from the 1930s to 2014.The air temperature data were collected from Meteo Rwanda.Before making the analysis,the authors used software,such as Excel 2007 and INSTAT to control the quality of the raw data.The analysis of maxima and minima indicated that the trends of maximum air temperature were positive and significant at height meteorological stations,whereas the trends for minimum air temperature were found to be at 10 meteorological stations.For all parameters analysed,Kigali Airport meteorological station indicated the higher significance of the trends.The majority of meteorological stations showed an increase in both hot days and nights,confirming Rwanda’s warming over time.The analysis of average seasonal air temperature showed almost similar trends even though not all were significant.This similarity in trends could be attributed to the fact that Rwanda’s short and long dry seasons coincide with rainy seasons.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFE0106300)Norges Forskningsråd(328886).
文摘This study investigates trends in extreme precipitation events(EPEs)across Antarctica from 1979 to 2023,analyzing changes in EPE frequency,intensity,and the proportion of extreme to total precipitation.Using Self-Organizing Map(SOM)techniques,the study distinguishes the contributions from thermodynamic,dynamic,and interaction components in explaining these trends.Positive EPE occurrence trends are observed across the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas,Dronning Maud Land,and parts of the Southern Ocean,with declines limited to Queen Mary Land.Thermodynamic factors,responsible for 96.0%of the overall trend,are driven by increased water vapor content in polar air masses.Dynamic contributions,representing 10.8%,are linked to a strengthened Amundsen Sea Low(ASL)associated with the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)and Pacific South American(PSA)trends.Interaction effects make a slightly negative contribution(-6.8%)to the overall trend.Variations in water vapor transport and vertical velocity tied to annual 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies further explain EPE trends.These findings provide insight into the atmospheric processes that influence Antarctic EPEs,with implications for understanding the climatic impact on the polar environment.
文摘Malaria remains a major public health challenge necessitating accurate predictive models to inform effective intervention strategies in Sierra Leone. This study compares the performance of Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using data from January 2018 to December 2023, incorporating both historical case records from Sierra Leone’s Health Management Information System (HMIS) and meteorological variables including humidity, precipitation, and temperature. The ANN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.74% before including climatic variables. This was further reduced to 3.9% with the inclusion of climatic variables, outperforming traditional models like Holt-Winters and Harmonic, which yielded MAPEs of 22.53% and 17.90% respectively. The ANN’s success is attributed to its ability to capture complex, non-linear relationships in the data, particularly when enhanced with relevant climatic variables. Using the optimized ANN model, we forecasted malaria cases for the next 24 months, predicting a steady increase from January 2024 to December 2025, with seasonal peaks. This study underscores the potential of machine learning approaches, particularly ANNs, in epidemiological modelling and highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors into malaria prediction models, recommending the ANN model for informing more targeted and efficient malaria control strategies to improve public health outcomes in Sierra Leone and similar settings.
基金funded by Jiangsu Province Geological Engineering Environment Intelligent Monitoring Engineering Research Center Open Fund,grant number 2023-ZNJKJJ-08The National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 41674036.
文摘The weather in Australia is significantly influenced by water vapor evaporated fromwarm ocean surfaces,which is closely associated with various extreme weather events in the region,such as floods,droughts,and bushfires.This study utilizes Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)data from 15 Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)stations spanning 2010 to 2019 to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric water vapor across Australia,aiming to improve the accuracy of forecasting hazardous weather events.The results indicate distinct regional features in the spatial distribution of PWV.PWV gradually decreases from coastal areas toward inland regions and increases from south to north.Temporally,the overall trend of PWV remains consistent.From an annual trend perspective,most areas exhibit a decline in PWV content,with the exception of the southwestern coastal region,which shows an increasing trend.Furthermore,the study explores the correlations between PWV content and elevation,latitude,and longitude.Among these,latitude demonstrates the strongest correlation with PWV,with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.88,highlighting the significant impact of latitude on water vapor distribution.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32130013,32070434)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC2601601)+1 种基金the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK05010112,2019QZKK0304-02)Hainan Tropical Rainforest Conservation Research Project,ZDYF2023RDYL01(supported by the Hainan Institute of National Park,HINP,KY-24ZK02).
文摘Understanding the genetic diversity–area relationship(GAR)is essential for comprehending how species adapt to environmental changes,as genetic diversity is an indicator of a species’adaptive potential.Variation in environmental adaptation capacity exists among species and animal taxa with different distribution areas,highlighting the importance of understanding the GAR.To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the GAR in terrestrial vertebrates,we assessed both haplotype diversity–area and nucleotide diversity–area relationships using 25,453 cytochrome c oxidase subunit I(COI)sequences from 142 amphibian species,574 bird species,and 342 mammal species.We found that both measures of genetic diversity increased with species range size across major animal groups.Nevertheless,the GAR did not differ among animal groups,while haplotype diversity performed better than nucleotide diversity in profiling the GAR,as indicated by higher R2 values.The difference in the modeling fit may stem from the distinct biological and mathematical significance of nucleotide diversity and haplotype diversity.These results suggest that the GAR follows similar rules among different animal taxa.Furthermore,haplotype diversity may serve as a more reliable indicator for assessing the potential effects of area size changes on animal populations and provide better guidance for conserving genetic diversity.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52271271)National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2022YFE0104500)Major Science and Technology Projects of the Ministry of Water Resources (No. SKS-2022025)。
文摘Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change of China were published in 2020 and 2022, respectively.However, no concrete results on the long-term trends in wave changes in China have been obtained. In this study, long-term trends in extreme wave elements over the past 55 years were investigated using wave data from five in situ observation sites(i.e., Lao Hu Tan, Cheng Shan Tou,Ri Zhao, Nan Ji, Wei Zhou) along the coast of China. The five stations showed different trends in wave height. Results show a general downward trend in wave heights at the LHT and CST stations, reaching-0.78 and-1.44 cm/a, respectively, in summer at middle and high latitudes. NJI stations at middle-to-low latitudes are influenced by the winter monsoon and summer tropical cyclones, showing a substantial increase in extreme wave heights(0.7 cm/a in winter and 2.68 cm/a in summer). The cumulative duration of H_(1/10) ≥ 3 m at NJI and RZH has grown since 1990.
基金Supported by Special Item of Public Welfare Industry Science Research ( GYHY201006025)
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and sunshine) of 55 meteorological stations in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 and the yield data of winter wheat,by using the linear regression,correlated coefficient and climatic tendency rate,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural climatic resources (sunshine hours,temperature and precipitation) in northern winter wheat zone were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 all presented certain zonal distribution in the space.The precipitation and temperature gradually decreased from south to north.The sunshine hours gradually increased from south to north.The annual average temperature overall presented rise trend in northern winter wheat zone in 44 years,but the rise rate had difference in the different areas.The rise of annual average temperature in the high-latitude zone was more obvious than that in the low-latitude zone.The annual rainfall overall presented decrease trend,and the tendency rate of annual precipitation had significant difference in the different areas.The decrease rates of rainfalls in the central and western areas were bigger than that in other areas.The annual sunshine hours overall presented decline trend.In most areas,the tendency rate of annual sunshine hours was negative.But there was certain difference in the different areas.The zones where the decrease amplitude was smaller scattered in the west,and included central Shaanxi,south of Shanxi and some areas in southeast of Shandong.The decrease amplitudes were bigger in south of Henan,northwest of Shandong and south of Hebei.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for understanding the historical evolution of climate in northern winter wheat zone.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos40890053,90502001,and 90711003)
文摘Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.
基金NSF Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models,No.AGS-1243220NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems,No.1210360+2 种基金NSF Computer and Network Systems,No.CNS-1059376NASA Land Cover/Land Use Change Program,No.NNX08AL73G S01NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program,No.NNX10AU06G,No.NNX11AD47G
文摘A wide variety of studies have estimated the magnitude of global terrestrial net primary production （NPP）, but its variations, both spatially and temporally, still remain uncertain. By using an improved process-based terrestrial ecosystem model （DLEM, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model）, we provide an estimate of global terrestrial NPP induced by multiple environmental factors and examine the response of terrestrial NPP to climate variability at biome and global levels and along latitudes throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The model simulation estimates an average global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 Pg C yr-1 during 2000-2009, varying from 52.8 Pg C yr-1 in the dry year of 2002 to 56.4 Pg C yr-1 in the wet year of 2008. In wet years, a large increase in terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean was prevalent in Amazonia, Africa and Australia. In dry years, however, we found a 3.2% reduction in global terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean, primarily due to limited moisture supply in tropical regions. At a global level, precipitation explained approximately 63% of the variation in terrestrial NPP, while the rest was attributed to changes in temperature and other environmental factors. Precipitation was the major factor determining inter-annual variation in terrestrial NPP in low-latitude regions. However, in midand high-latitude regions, temperature variability largely controlled the magnitude of terrestrial NPP. Our results imply that pro- jected climate warming and increasing climate extreme events would alter the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global terrestrial NPP.
基金National Basic Research Program of China,No.2010CB428406National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.40830636No.40971023
文摘As the largest wetland in the North China Plain （NCP）, the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. Ir the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate vari- ability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmer,tal issues. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment （a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin） from 1960 to 2008. Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly （P〉0.05） by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identi- fied around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations ac- counted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%--62%. Therefore, the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and in- tegrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.
基金supported by the foundation from:the program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40675037)the key program of the Sichuan Province Youth Science and Technology Fund(05ZQ026-023)the opening project of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.
基金supported by the Research Innovation Program for college graduates of Jiangsu Province (CXLX13 487)
文摘A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41174020, 41131067)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2014214020203)+1 种基金the open fund of Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education (14-02-011)the open fund of Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics (14-045-24-17)
文摘Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage （TWS） changes over the Pearl River Basin （PRB） for the period 2003-Nov. 2014. TWS estimates from GRACE generally show good agreement with those from two hydrological models GLDAS and WGHM. But they show different capability of detecting significant TWS changes over the PRB. Among them, WGHM is likely to underestimate the seasonal variability of TWS, while GRACE detects long- term water depletions over the upper PRB as was done by hydrological models, and observes significant water increases around the Longtan Reservoir （LTR） due to water impoundment. The heavy drought in 2011 caused by the persistent precipitation deficit has resulted in extreme low surface runoff and water level of the LTR. Moreover, large variability of summer and autumn precipitation may easily trigger floods and droughts in the rainy season in the PRB, especially for summer, as a high correlation of 0.89 was found between precipitation and surface runoff. Generally, the PRB TWS was negatively correlated with El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. However, the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） may impact this relationship, and the significant TWS anomaly was likely to occur in the peak of PDO phase as they agree well in both of the magnitude and timing of peaks. This indicates that GRACE-based TWS could be a valuable parameter for studying climatic in- fluences in the PRB.
基金study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42230605 and 41721004).
文摘Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
