Solution-driven mesh adaptation is becoming quite popular for spatial error control in the numerical simulation of complex computational physics applications,such as climate modeling.Typically,spatial adaptation is ac...Solution-driven mesh adaptation is becoming quite popular for spatial error control in the numerical simulation of complex computational physics applications,such as climate modeling.Typically,spatial adaptation is achieved by element subdivision (h adaptation) with a primary goal of resolving the local length scales of interest.A sec- ond,less-popular method of spatial adaptivity is called'mesh motion'(r adaptation); the smooth repositioning of mesh node points aimed at resizing existing elements to capture the local length scales.This paper proposes an adaptation method based on a combination of both element subdivision and node point repositioning (rh adaptation). By combining these two methods using the notion of a mobility function,the proposed approach seeks to increase the flexibility and extensibility of mesh motion algorithms while providing a somewhat smoother transition between refined regions than is pro- duced by element subdivision alone.Further,in an attempt to support the requirements of a very general class of climate simulation applications,the proposed method is de- signed to accommodate unstructured,polygonal mesh topologies in addition to the most popular mesh types.展开更多
A 20-year simulation of regional climate over East Asia by the regional climate model RegCM3_CERES （Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis） was c...A 20-year simulation of regional climate over East Asia by the regional climate model RegCM3_CERES （Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis） was carried out and compared with observations and the original RegCM3 model to compre- hensively evaluate its performance in simulating the regional climate over continental China. The results showed that RegCM3_CERES reproduced the regional climate at a resolution of 60 km over China by using ERA40 data as the boundary conditions, albeit with some limitations. The model captured the basic char- acteristics of the East Asian circulation, the spatial distribution of mean precipitation and temperature, and the daily characteristics of precipitation and temperature. However, it underestimated both the intensity of the monsoon in the monsoonal area and precipitation in southern China, overestimated precipitation in northern China, and produced a systematic cold temperature bias over most of continental China. Despite these limitations, it was concluded that the RegCM3_CERES model is able to simulate the regional climate over continental China reasonably well.展开更多
This study investigates the impacts of deforestation within the influence area of the BR-319 highway on local climate conditions following its planned reconstruction.High-resolution climate modeling indicates that mea...This study investigates the impacts of deforestation within the influence area of the BR-319 highway on local climate conditions following its planned reconstruction.High-resolution climate modeling indicates that mean air temperature may increase by up to 0.7℃under the paved-road scenario(BAU_2)by 2100,with local increases exceeding 2.5℃in deforested regions during the dry season.Precipitation is projected to rise by an average of up to 0.5 mm·day^(-1),with local increases above 2.5 mm·day^(-1)in fragmented landscapes.However,this effect is likely temporary and may shift to declining rainfall as deforestation consolidates into large continuous areas.These effects are driven by reduced evapotranspiration,increased surface temperatures,and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.Such alterations result in greater moisture convergence over deforested zones,thereby influencing the regional hydrological cycle.The comparison of different deforestation scenarios underscores the significant influence of highway development on local climate.The results highlight the importance of incorporating climate projections into environmental assessments to inform public policy decisions regarding infrastructure projects in the Amazon.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time an...Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climate modeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a more substantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regional climate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the world and the outlook of regional climate modeling.展开更多
A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components a...A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.展开更多
Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two exper...Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run (2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature. The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.展开更多
In this paper, the numerical experiments on the issue of spin-up time for seasonal-scale regional climate modeling were conducted with the newly Regional Climate Model （RegCM3）, in the case of the abnormal climate e...In this paper, the numerical experiments on the issue of spin-up time for seasonal-scale regional climate modeling were conducted with the newly Regional Climate Model （RegCM3）, in the case of the abnormal climate event during the summer of 1998 in China. To test the effect of spin-up time on the regional climate simulation results for such abnormal climate event, a total of 11 experiments were performed with different spin-up time from 10 days to 6 months, respectively. The simulation results show that, for the meteorological variables in the atmosphere, the model would be running in “climate mode” after 4-8-day spin-up time, then, it is independent of the spin-up time basically, and the simulation errors are mainly caused by the model＇ s failure in describing the atmospheric processes over the model domain. This verifies again that the regional climate modeling is indeed a lateral boundary condition problem as demonstrated by earlier research work. The simulated mean precipitation rate over each subregion is not sensitive to the spin-up time, but the precipitation scenario is somewhat different for the experiment with different spin-up time, which shows that there exists the uncertainty in the simulation to precipitation scenario, and such a uncertainty exhibits more over the areas where heavy rainfall happened. Generally, for monthly-scale precipitation simulation, a soin-uo time of 1 month is enough, whereas a spin-up time of 2 months is better for seasonal-scale one. Furthermore, the relationship between the precipitation simulation error and the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon was analyzed. It is found that the variability of correlation coefficient for precipitation is more significant over the areas where the summer monsoon is predominant. Therefore, the model＇s capability in reproducing precipitation features is related to the heavy rainfall processes associated with the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon, which suggests that it is necessary to develop a more reliable parameterization scheme to capture the convective precipitation of heavy rainfall pro- cesses associated with the activities of East Asian summer monsoon, so as to improve the climate modeling over China.展开更多
This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled ＂Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia＂, under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy ...This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled ＂Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia＂, under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Chinese Academy of Sciences（in the early 1980 s, Professor Duzheng YE played a critical role in leading and formalizing the agreement）. Here, the rationale and approach for pursuing the program, the participants, and research activities of recent years are first described, and then the highlights of the program＇s key findings and relevant scientific issues, as well as follow-up studies, are presented and discussed.展开更多
Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, can...Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.展开更多
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework...This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG)with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES)),European Community Earth-System Model(EC-Earth),and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5(MIROC5).Projections were generated for three future time periods(2021–2040,2041–2060,and 2061–2080)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analy-sis,this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region.The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution,station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscal-ing techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs.Model calibration and validation 2 were performed using historical climate data(1990–2020),resulting in high accuracy across all stations(R=0.91–0.99;RMSE=0.19–2.78),thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections.Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures,with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century,particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario.Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability,with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season,depending on the model and location.These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity,particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar.The findings under-score the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning,providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.展开更多
In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly explo...In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.展开更多
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this st...Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.展开更多
A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed...A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.展开更多
Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land...Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model forthe simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climatescenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climateB2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, theHaihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production ascompared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in theflood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.展开更多
Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. ...Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades.展开更多
Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertaintie...Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates.展开更多
By using the simulative results of more than 20 climate system models which were provided by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the climate change in Dalian area in the...By using the simulative results of more than 20 climate system models which were provided by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the climate change in Dalian area in the 21st century under the different scenarios(SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1) were analyzed and predicted with the multi-model's aggregative simulative results via the interpolation downscaling calculation.The results showed that the climate in Dalian would have the obvious warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century as a whole.The annual average warming tendency of air temperature would be 2.45-3.46 ℃/100 years,and the annual precipitation increase trend would be 5.8%-16.3% per 100 years.The warming in winter would be the most obvious,and the precipitation increase would be comparatively obvious in winter and spring.The precipitation decrease would be comparatively obvious in autumn in the previous period of 21st century.In A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the air temperatures in the late period of 21st century would respectively be 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃ higher than in the ordinary years,and the annual precipitation would respectively be 16.3%,11.8% and 5.79% more than in the ordinary years.展开更多
The West Development Policy being implemented in China causes significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in West China, of which the two most important types of LULC change are replacing farmland and re-greeni...The West Development Policy being implemented in China causes significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in West China, of which the two most important types of LULC change are replacing farmland and re-greening the desertification land with forest or grass. This paper modifies the prevailing regional climate model (RCM) by updating its lower boundary conditions with the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) created by the United States Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The modified RCM is used to simulate the possible regional climate changes due to the LULC variations. The preliminary results can be summarized as that the two main types of LULC variation, replacing farmland and greening the desertification lands with forest or grass in west China, will affect the regional climate mostly in northwest and north China, where the surface temperature will decrease and the precipitation will increase. The regional climate adjustments in South, Southwest China and on the Tibet Plateau are uncertain.展开更多
The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with ...The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with the limited aerosol observations over the region. The aerosol module consists of SO2, SO4^2-, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black carbon （BC） and organic carbon compounds （OC）, including emission, advections, dry and wet deposition, and chemical production and conversion. The simulated patterns of SO2 are closely tied to its emission rate, with sharp gradients between the highly polluted regions and more rural areas. Chemical conversion （especially in the aqueous phase） and dry deposition remove 60% and 30% of the total SO2 emission, respectively. The SO4^2- shows less horizontal gradient and seasonality than SO2, with wet deposition （60%） and export （27%） being two major sinks. Carbonaceous aerosols are spatially smoother than sulfur species. The aging process transforms more than 80% of hydrophobic BC and OC to hydrophilic components, which are removed by wet deposition （60%） and export （30%）. The simulated spatial and seasonal SO4^2-, BC and OC aerosol concentrations and total aerosol optical depth are generally consistent with the observations in rural areas over East Asia, with lower bias in simulated OC aerosols, likely due to the underestimation of anthropogenic OC emissions and missing treatment of secondary organic carbon. The results suggest that our model is a useful tool for characterizing the anthropogenic aerosol cycle and for assessing its potential climatic and environmental effects in future studies.展开更多
文摘Solution-driven mesh adaptation is becoming quite popular for spatial error control in the numerical simulation of complex computational physics applications,such as climate modeling.Typically,spatial adaptation is achieved by element subdivision (h adaptation) with a primary goal of resolving the local length scales of interest.A sec- ond,less-popular method of spatial adaptivity is called'mesh motion'(r adaptation); the smooth repositioning of mesh node points aimed at resizing existing elements to capture the local length scales.This paper proposes an adaptation method based on a combination of both element subdivision and node point repositioning (rh adaptation). By combining these two methods using the notion of a mobility function,the proposed approach seeks to increase the flexibility and extensibility of mesh motion algorithms while providing a somewhat smoother transition between refined regions than is pro- duced by element subdivision alone.Further,in an attempt to support the requirements of a very general class of climate simulation applications,the proposed method is de- signed to accommodate unstructured,polygonal mesh topologies in addition to the most popular mesh types.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105062 and 91125016)the National Basic Research Program (Grant Nos. 2010CB951001 and 2010CB428403)
文摘A 20-year simulation of regional climate over East Asia by the regional climate model RegCM3_CERES （Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis） was carried out and compared with observations and the original RegCM3 model to compre- hensively evaluate its performance in simulating the regional climate over continental China. The results showed that RegCM3_CERES reproduced the regional climate at a resolution of 60 km over China by using ERA40 data as the boundary conditions, albeit with some limitations. The model captured the basic char- acteristics of the East Asian circulation, the spatial distribution of mean precipitation and temperature, and the daily characteristics of precipitation and temperature. However, it underestimated both the intensity of the monsoon in the monsoonal area and precipitation in southern China, overestimated precipitation in northern China, and produced a systematic cold temperature bias over most of continental China. Despite these limitations, it was concluded that the RegCM3_CERES model is able to simulate the regional climate over continental China reasonably well.
基金Support Foundation(FAPEAM)(Resolution 003/2019,01.02.016301.02529/2024-87)the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel(CAPES)(Finance Code 001),for institutional support+2 种基金the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources(IBAMA)for its supportthe National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq 312450/2021-4,406941/2022-0)the Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change(Rede Clima)(FINEP/Rede Clima 01.13.0353-00).
文摘This study investigates the impacts of deforestation within the influence area of the BR-319 highway on local climate conditions following its planned reconstruction.High-resolution climate modeling indicates that mean air temperature may increase by up to 0.7℃under the paved-road scenario(BAU_2)by 2100,with local increases exceeding 2.5℃in deforested regions during the dry season.Precipitation is projected to rise by an average of up to 0.5 mm·day^(-1),with local increases above 2.5 mm·day^(-1)in fragmented landscapes.However,this effect is likely temporary and may shift to declining rainfall as deforestation consolidates into large continuous areas.These effects are driven by reduced evapotranspiration,increased surface temperatures,and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.Such alterations result in greater moisture convergence over deforested zones,thereby influencing the regional hydrological cycle.The comparison of different deforestation scenarios underscores the significant influence of highway development on local climate.The results highlight the importance of incorporating climate projections into environmental assessments to inform public policy decisions regarding infrastructure projects in the Amazon.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
文摘Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climate modeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a more substantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regional climate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the world and the outlook of regional climate modeling.
文摘A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.
基金National Natural Science Fundamental of China (40125014) Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX1-SW-01-16) Supporting Fund for IPCC of China Meteorological Administration
文摘Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run (2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature. The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.
基金Supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40675065,40333026the Program of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KJS0605).
文摘In this paper, the numerical experiments on the issue of spin-up time for seasonal-scale regional climate modeling were conducted with the newly Regional Climate Model （RegCM3）, in the case of the abnormal climate event during the summer of 1998 in China. To test the effect of spin-up time on the regional climate simulation results for such abnormal climate event, a total of 11 experiments were performed with different spin-up time from 10 days to 6 months, respectively. The simulation results show that, for the meteorological variables in the atmosphere, the model would be running in “climate mode” after 4-8-day spin-up time, then, it is independent of the spin-up time basically, and the simulation errors are mainly caused by the model＇ s failure in describing the atmospheric processes over the model domain. This verifies again that the regional climate modeling is indeed a lateral boundary condition problem as demonstrated by earlier research work. The simulated mean precipitation rate over each subregion is not sensitive to the spin-up time, but the precipitation scenario is somewhat different for the experiment with different spin-up time, which shows that there exists the uncertainty in the simulation to precipitation scenario, and such a uncertainty exhibits more over the areas where heavy rainfall happened. Generally, for monthly-scale precipitation simulation, a soin-uo time of 1 month is enough, whereas a spin-up time of 2 months is better for seasonal-scale one. Furthermore, the relationship between the precipitation simulation error and the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon was analyzed. It is found that the variability of correlation coefficient for precipitation is more significant over the areas where the summer monsoon is predominant. Therefore, the model＇s capability in reproducing precipitation features is related to the heavy rainfall processes associated with the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon, which suggests that it is necessary to develop a more reliable parameterization scheme to capture the convective precipitation of heavy rainfall pro- cesses associated with the activities of East Asian summer monsoon, so as to improve the climate modeling over China.
基金support by a grant from the Office of Sciences(BER),U.S.DOEsupport from the Key National Basic Research Program on Global Change(Grant No.2013CB955803)to facilitate the visits to Peking University and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics
文摘This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled ＂Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia＂, under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Chinese Academy of Sciences（in the early 1980 s, Professor Duzheng YE played a critical role in leading and formalizing the agreement）. Here, the rationale and approach for pursuing the program, the participants, and research activities of recent years are first described, and then the highlights of the program＇s key findings and relevant scientific issues, as well as follow-up studies, are presented and discussed.
文摘Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.
文摘This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG)with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES)),European Community Earth-System Model(EC-Earth),and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5(MIROC5).Projections were generated for three future time periods(2021–2040,2041–2060,and 2061–2080)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analy-sis,this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region.The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution,station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscal-ing techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs.Model calibration and validation 2 were performed using historical climate data(1990–2020),resulting in high accuracy across all stations(R=0.91–0.99;RMSE=0.19–2.78),thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections.Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures,with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century,particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario.Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability,with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season,depending on the model and location.These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity,particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar.The findings under-score the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning,providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342228)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2020YFA0608902)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92358302,and 42242018)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0500303).
文摘In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 42130608]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2024M753169]。
文摘Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 40523001, 40221503, 40675050）Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under Grant Nos. 2005CB321703, 2006CB403603the International Partnership Creative Group entitled ＂The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies＂.
文摘A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.
基金the Knowledge Innovation Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-SW-317),the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 90411007 and 40275023), and the Hundred Talents Program ofChinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model forthe simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climatescenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climateB2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, theHaihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production ascompared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in theflood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.
文摘Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades.
基金funding from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [grant HIGH-TUNE ANR-16-CE01-0010]
文摘Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates.
基金Supported by The National Natural Science Fund(40971294)The General Project of Humanities and Social Sciences in Liaoning Education Department(2009A405)The Science and Technology Plan Project of Dalian Technology Bureau(2008E13SF189,2009E11SF230)
文摘By using the simulative results of more than 20 climate system models which were provided by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the climate change in Dalian area in the 21st century under the different scenarios(SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1) were analyzed and predicted with the multi-model's aggregative simulative results via the interpolation downscaling calculation.The results showed that the climate in Dalian would have the obvious warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century as a whole.The annual average warming tendency of air temperature would be 2.45-3.46 ℃/100 years,and the annual precipitation increase trend would be 5.8%-16.3% per 100 years.The warming in winter would be the most obvious,and the precipitation increase would be comparatively obvious in winter and spring.The precipitation decrease would be comparatively obvious in autumn in the previous period of 21st century.In A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the air temperatures in the late period of 21st century would respectively be 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃ higher than in the ordinary years,and the annual precipitation would respectively be 16.3%,11.8% and 5.79% more than in the ordinary years.
基金This study was supported bythe National Key Basic Research Development Programgranted by the Ministry of Science and Technology ofChina (MSTC) with project number G1999043500. Itwas also partly supported by the Innovation Program ofthe Chinese
文摘The West Development Policy being implemented in China causes significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in West China, of which the two most important types of LULC change are replacing farmland and re-greening the desertification land with forest or grass. This paper modifies the prevailing regional climate model (RCM) by updating its lower boundary conditions with the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) created by the United States Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The modified RCM is used to simulate the possible regional climate changes due to the LULC variations. The preliminary results can be summarized as that the two main types of LULC variation, replacing farmland and greening the desertification lands with forest or grass in west China, will affect the regional climate mostly in northwest and north China, where the surface temperature will decrease and the precipitation will increase. The regional climate adjustments in South, Southwest China and on the Tibet Plateau are uncertain.
基金funds from the U. S. Na- tional Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NNG04GB89G the U. S. National Science Foundation under grant ATM-0129495
文摘The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with the limited aerosol observations over the region. The aerosol module consists of SO2, SO4^2-, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black carbon （BC） and organic carbon compounds （OC）, including emission, advections, dry and wet deposition, and chemical production and conversion. The simulated patterns of SO2 are closely tied to its emission rate, with sharp gradients between the highly polluted regions and more rural areas. Chemical conversion （especially in the aqueous phase） and dry deposition remove 60% and 30% of the total SO2 emission, respectively. The SO4^2- shows less horizontal gradient and seasonality than SO2, with wet deposition （60%） and export （27%） being two major sinks. Carbonaceous aerosols are spatially smoother than sulfur species. The aging process transforms more than 80% of hydrophobic BC and OC to hydrophilic components, which are removed by wet deposition （60%） and export （30%）. The simulated spatial and seasonal SO4^2-, BC and OC aerosol concentrations and total aerosol optical depth are generally consistent with the observations in rural areas over East Asia, with lower bias in simulated OC aerosols, likely due to the underestimation of anthropogenic OC emissions and missing treatment of secondary organic carbon. The results suggest that our model is a useful tool for characterizing the anthropogenic aerosol cycle and for assessing its potential climatic and environmental effects in future studies.
