Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley a...Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.展开更多
Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
Model predictive control(MPC)has been deemed as an attractive control method in motor drives by virtue of its simple structure,convenient multi-objective optimization,and satisfactory dynamic performance.However,the s...Model predictive control(MPC)has been deemed as an attractive control method in motor drives by virtue of its simple structure,convenient multi-objective optimization,and satisfactory dynamic performance.However,the strong reliance on mathematical models seriously restrains its practical application.Therefore,improving the robustness of MPC has attained significant attentions in the last two decades,followed by which,model-free predictive control(MFPC)comes into existence.This article aims to reveal the current state of MFPC strategies for motor drives and give the categorization from the perspective of implementation.Based on this review,the principles of the reported MFPC strategies are introduced in detail,as well as the challenges encountered in technology realization.In addition,some of typical and important concepts are experimentally validated via case studies to evaluate the performance and highlight their features.Finally,the future trends of MFPC are discussed based on the current state and reported developments.展开更多
Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditiona...Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.展开更多
Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various as...Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.展开更多
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg...Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.展开更多
In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are revi...In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are reviewed,and the“spring predictability barrier”problem for El Nino‒Southern Oscillation events and targeted observation issues for tropical cyclone forecasts are taken as two representative examples.Nonlinear theory reveals that initial errors of particular spatial structures,environmental conditions,and nonlinear processes contribute to significant prediction errors,whereas nonlinear technology provides a pioneering approach for reducing observational and forecast errors via targeted observations through the application of the CNOP method.Follow-up research further validates the scientific rigor of the theory in revealing the nonlinear mechanism of significant prediction errors,and relevant practical field campaigns for targeted observations verify the effectiveness of the technology in reducing prediction uncertainties.The CNOP method has achieved international recognition;furthermore,its applications further extend to ensemble forecasts for weather and climate and further enrich the nonlinear technology for reducing prediction uncertainties.It is expected that this nonlinear theory and technology will play a considerably important role in reducing prediction uncertainties for high-impact weather and climate events.展开更多
Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attent...Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.展开更多
Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 count...Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034.Methods COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends,and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models.Results The incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing,and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories,except for a few Southeastern Asian countries.The Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034,respectively.Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group.The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen,though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one.Conclusion COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk,especially in countries with rising rates.Urgent action on tobacco control,air pollution,and public education is needed.展开更多
Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values pred...Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values predictive of incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 702 women diagnosed with first-trimester missed miscarriage between January 2020 and May 2023.Demographic characteristics and ultrasound parameters were systematically recorded.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to establish optimal sonographic cutoff values for predicting incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Results:146 patients received medical treatment(mifepristone and misoprostol)and 556 underwent surgical curettage.At the 1-month follow-up,the medical group showed significantly greater endometrial thickness and longer postoperative bleeding duration than the surgical group(P<0.05).The menstrual volume reduction rate(23.56%)was significantly lower in the medical group than in the surgical group.The incomplete abortion rate was higher in the medical group(17.12%,25/146)than in the surgical group(2.88%,16/556).Among the medical group,14 patients(9.59%)required curettage due to incomplete abortion,while 11 cases resolved spontaneously after prolonged medication.ROC curve analysis identified two cut-off values indicating the need for surgical intervention:endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h post-medical abortion,and residual mass diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion.Conclusions:Medical management of first-trimester missed miscarriage using mifepristone-misoprostol demonstrates comparable efficacy to surgical curettage.An endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h or residual tissue diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion should prompt consideration of incomplete abortion.展开更多
BACKGROUND The discrepancy between endoscopic biopsy pathology and the overall pathology of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia(LGIN)presents challenges in developing diagnostic and treatment protocols.AIM To ...BACKGROUND The discrepancy between endoscopic biopsy pathology and the overall pathology of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia(LGIN)presents challenges in developing diagnostic and treatment protocols.AIM To develop a risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN to aid clinical diagnosis and treatment.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed data from patients newly diagnosed with gastric LGIN who underwent complete endoscopic resection within 6 months at the First Medical Center of Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital between January 2008 and December 2023.A risk prediction model for the pathological progression of gastric LGIN was constructed and evaluated for accuracy and clinical applicability.RESULTS A total of 171 patients were included in this study:93 patients with high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia or early gastric cancer and 78 with LGIN.The logistic stepwise regression model demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity of 0.868 and 0.800,respectively,while the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression model showed sensitivity and specificity values of 0.842 and 0.840,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)for the logistic model was 0.896,slightly lower than the AUC of 0.904 for the LASSO model.Internal validation with 30%of the data yielded AUC scores of 0.908 for the logistic model and 0.905 for the LASSO model.The LASSO model provided greater utility in clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION A risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN based on white-light and magnifying endoscopic features can accurately and effectively guide clinical diagnosis and treatment.展开更多
BACKGROUND To investigate the preoperative factors influencing textbook outcomes(TO)in Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)patients and evaluate the feasibility of an interpretable machine learning model for preoperat...BACKGROUND To investigate the preoperative factors influencing textbook outcomes(TO)in Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)patients and evaluate the feasibility of an interpretable machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO,we developed a machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO and used the SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)technique to illustrate the prediction process.AIM To analyze the factors influencing textbook outcomes before surgery and to establish interpretable machine learning models for preoperative prediction.METHODS A total of 376 patients diagnosed with ICC were retrospectively collected from four major medical institutions in China,covering the period from 2011 to 2017.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify preoperative variables associated with achieving TO.Based on these variables,an EXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)machine learning prediction model was constructed using the XGBoost package.The SHAP(package:Shapviz)algorithm was employed to visualize each variable's contribution to the model's predictions.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare the prognostic differences between the TO-achieving and non-TO-achieving groups.RESULTS Among 376 patients,287 were included in the training group and 89 in the validation group.Logistic regression identified the following preoperative variables influencing TO:Child-Pugh classification,Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group(ECOG)score,hepatitis B,and tumor size.The XGBoost prediction model demonstrated high accuracy in internal validation(AUC=0.8825)and external validation(AUC=0.8346).Survival analysis revealed that the disease-free survival rates for patients achieving TO at 1,2,and 3 years were 64.2%,56.8%,and 43.4%,respectively.CONCLUSION Child-Pugh classification,ECOG score,hepatitis B,and tumor size are preoperative predictors of TO.In both the training group and the validation group,the machine learning model had certain effectiveness in predicting TO before surgery.The SHAP algorithm provided intuitive visualization of the machine learning prediction process,enhancing its interpretability.展开更多
Personalized drug response prediction from molecular data is an important challenge in precision medicine for treating cancer.Computational methods have been widely explored and have become increasingly accurate in re...Personalized drug response prediction from molecular data is an important challenge in precision medicine for treating cancer.Computational methods have been widely explored and have become increasingly accurate in recent years.However,the clinical application of prediction methods is still in its infancy due to large discrepancies between preclinial models and patients.We present a novel disentangled synthesis transfer network(DiSyn)for drug response prediction specifically designed for transfer learning from preclinical models to clinical patients.DiSyn uses a domain separation network(DSN)to disentangle drug response related features,employs data synthesis technology to increase the sample size and iteratively trains for better feature disentanglement.DiSyn is pretrained on large-scale unlabeled cancer samples and validated by three datasets,The Cancer Genome Atlas(TCGA),Investigation of Serial Studies to Predict Your Therapeutic Response With Imaging And moLecular Analysis 2(I-SPY2)and Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research Patient-Derived Xenograft Encyclopedia(NIBR PDXE),achieving competitive performance with the state-of-the-art methods on cancer patients and mice.Furthermore,the application of DiSyn to thousands of breast cancer patients show the heterogeneity in drug responses and demonstrate its potential value in biomarker discovery and drug combination prediction.展开更多
Dear Editor,In this letter,a constrained networked predictive control strategy is proposed for the optimal control problem of complex nonlinear highorder fully actuated(HOFA)systems with noises.The method can effectiv...Dear Editor,In this letter,a constrained networked predictive control strategy is proposed for the optimal control problem of complex nonlinear highorder fully actuated(HOFA)systems with noises.The method can effectively deal with nonlinearities,constraints,and noises in the system,optimize the performance metric,and present an upper bound on the stable output of the system.展开更多
Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challen...Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.展开更多
BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies to date have found preoperative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)features valuable in predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer(RC).However,research is still lacking on the cor...BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies to date have found preoperative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)features valuable in predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer(RC).However,research is still lacking on the correlation between preoperative MRI features and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC,urgently necessitating further in-depth exploration.AIM To investigate the correlation between preoperative MRI parameters and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC to provide an effective tool for predicting postoperative recurrence.METHODS The data of 90 patients who were diagnosed with RC by surgical pathology and underwent radical surgical resection at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University between May 2020 and December 2023 were collected through retrospective analysis.General demographic data,MRI data,and tumor markers levels were collected.According to the reviewed data of patients six months after surgery,the clinicians comprehensively assessed the recurrence risk and divided the patients into high recurrence risk(37 cases)and low recurrence risk(53 cases)groups.Independent sample t-test andχ2 test were used to analyze differences between the two groups.A logistic regression model was used to explore the risk factors of the high recurrence risk group,and a clinical prediction model was constructed.The clinical prediction model is presented in the form of a nomogram.The receiver operating characteristic curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the efficacy of the clinical prediction model.RESULTS The detection of positive extramural vascular invasion through preoperative MRI[odds ratio(OR)=4.29,P=0.045],along with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen(OR=1.08,P=0.041),carbohydrate antigen 125(OR=1.19,P=0.034),and carbohydrate antigen 199(OR=1.27,P<0.001)levels,are independent risk factors for increased postoperative recurrence risk in patients with RC.Furthermore,there was a correlation between magnetic resonance based T staging,magnetic resonance based N staging,and circumferential resection margin results determined by MRI and the postoperative recurrence risk.Additionally,when extramural vascular invasion was integrated with tumor markers,the resulting clinical prediction model more effectively identified patients at high risk for postoperative recurrence,thereby providing robust support for clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION The results of this study indicate that preoperative MRI detection is of great importance for predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with RC.Monitoring these markers helps clinicians identify patients at high risk,allowing for more aggressive treatment and monitoring strategies to improve patient outcomes.展开更多
Stroke,a major cerebrovascular disease,has high morbidity and mortality.Effective methods to reduce the risk and improve the prognosis are lacking.Currently,uric acid(UA)is associated with the pathological mechanism,p...Stroke,a major cerebrovascular disease,has high morbidity and mortality.Effective methods to reduce the risk and improve the prognosis are lacking.Currently,uric acid(UA)is associated with the pathological mechanism,prognosis,and therapy of stroke.UA plays pro/anti-oxidative and pro-inflammatory roles in vivo.The specific role of UA in stroke,which may have both neuroprotective and damaging effects,remains unclear.There is a U-shaped association between serum uric acid(SUA)levels and ischemic stroke(IS).UA therapy provides neuroprotection during reperfusion therapy for acute ischemic stroke(AIS).Urate-lowering therapy(ULT)plays a protective role in IS with hyperuricemia or gout.SUA levels are associated with the cerebrovascular injury mechanism,risk,and outcomes of hemorrhagic stroke.In this review,we summarize the current research on the role of UA in stroke,providing potential targets for its prediction and treatment.展开更多
Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather an...Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.展开更多
Negative logarithm of the acid dissociation constant(pK_(a))significantly influences the absorption,dis-tribution,metabolism,excretion,and toxicity(ADMET)properties of molecules and is a crucial indicator in drug rese...Negative logarithm of the acid dissociation constant(pK_(a))significantly influences the absorption,dis-tribution,metabolism,excretion,and toxicity(ADMET)properties of molecules and is a crucial indicator in drug research.Given the rapid and accurate characteristics of computational methods,their role in predicting drug properties is increasingly important.Although many pK_(a) prediction models currently exist,they often focus on enhancing model precision while neglecting interpretability.In this study,we present GraFpKa,a pK_(a) prediction model using graph neural networks(GNNs)and molecular finger-prints.The results show that our acidic and basic models achieved mean absolute errors(MAEs)of 0.621 and 0.402,respectively,on the test set,demonstrating good predictive performance.Notably,to improve interpretability,GraFpKa also incorporates Integrated Gradients(IGs),providing a clearer visual description of the atoms significantly affecting the pK_(a) values.The high reliability and interpretability of GraFpKa ensure accurate pKa predictions while also facilitating a deeper understanding of the relation-ship between molecular structure and pK_(a) values,making it a valuable tool in the field of pK_(a) prediction.展开更多
Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocar...Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocardiographic data,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)tongue manifestations,and facial features were collected from patients who underwent coro-nary computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Cardiac Care Unit(CCU)of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between May 1,2023 and May 1,2024.An adaptive weighted multi-modal data fusion(AWMDF)model based on deep learning was constructed to predict the severity of coronary artery stenosis.The model was evaluated using metrics including accura-cy,precision,recall,F1 score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Further performance assessment was conducted through comparisons with six ensemble machine learning methods,data ablation,model component ablation,and various decision-level fusion strategies.Results A total of 158 patients were included in the study.The AWMDF model achieved ex-cellent predictive performance(AUC=0.973,accuracy=0.937,precision=0.937,recall=0.929,and F1 score=0.933).Compared with model ablation,data ablation experiments,and various traditional machine learning models,the AWMDF model demonstrated superior per-formance.Moreover,the adaptive weighting strategy outperformed alternative approaches,including simple weighting,averaging,voting,and fixed-weight schemes.Conclusion The AWMDF model demonstrates potential clinical value in the non-invasive prediction of coronary artery disease and could serve as a tool for clinical decision support.展开更多
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274326)the China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(No.BWLCF202109)the Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan of China(No.ZX20220553).
文摘Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52077002。
文摘Model predictive control(MPC)has been deemed as an attractive control method in motor drives by virtue of its simple structure,convenient multi-objective optimization,and satisfactory dynamic performance.However,the strong reliance on mathematical models seriously restrains its practical application.Therefore,improving the robustness of MPC has attained significant attentions in the last two decades,followed by which,model-free predictive control(MFPC)comes into existence.This article aims to reveal the current state of MFPC strategies for motor drives and give the categorization from the perspective of implementation.Based on this review,the principles of the reported MFPC strategies are introduced in detail,as well as the challenges encountered in technology realization.In addition,some of typical and important concepts are experimentally validated via case studies to evaluate the performance and highlight their features.Finally,the future trends of MFPC are discussed based on the current state and reported developments.
基金supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.U2468201 and 62221001ZTE Industry-University-Institute Cooperation Funds under Grant No.IA20240420002。
文摘Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(32122066,32201855)STI2030—Major Projects(2023ZD04076).
文摘Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.
基金the funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52308340)Chongqing Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Demonstration Team Project(Grant No.cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0012)the Science and Technology Projects supported by China Coal Technology and Engineering Chongqing Design and Research Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd..(Grant No.H20230317)。
文摘Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grant No.42330111).
文摘In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are reviewed,and the“spring predictability barrier”problem for El Nino‒Southern Oscillation events and targeted observation issues for tropical cyclone forecasts are taken as two representative examples.Nonlinear theory reveals that initial errors of particular spatial structures,environmental conditions,and nonlinear processes contribute to significant prediction errors,whereas nonlinear technology provides a pioneering approach for reducing observational and forecast errors via targeted observations through the application of the CNOP method.Follow-up research further validates the scientific rigor of the theory in revealing the nonlinear mechanism of significant prediction errors,and relevant practical field campaigns for targeted observations verify the effectiveness of the technology in reducing prediction uncertainties.The CNOP method has achieved international recognition;furthermore,its applications further extend to ensemble forecasts for weather and climate and further enrich the nonlinear technology for reducing prediction uncertainties.It is expected that this nonlinear theory and technology will play a considerably important role in reducing prediction uncertainties for high-impact weather and climate events.
基金funded by the project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial(Grant Number LH2023F033)the Science and Technology Innovation Talent Project of Harbin(Grant Number 2022CXRCCG006).
文摘Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.
基金supported by a major project of the Zhejiang Natural Science Foundation(LD21G030001).
文摘Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034.Methods COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends,and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models.Results The incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing,and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories,except for a few Southeastern Asian countries.The Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034,respectively.Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group.The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen,though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one.Conclusion COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk,especially in countries with rising rates.Urgent action on tobacco control,air pollution,and public education is needed.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project approval number 82201825).
文摘Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values predictive of incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 702 women diagnosed with first-trimester missed miscarriage between January 2020 and May 2023.Demographic characteristics and ultrasound parameters were systematically recorded.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to establish optimal sonographic cutoff values for predicting incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Results:146 patients received medical treatment(mifepristone and misoprostol)and 556 underwent surgical curettage.At the 1-month follow-up,the medical group showed significantly greater endometrial thickness and longer postoperative bleeding duration than the surgical group(P<0.05).The menstrual volume reduction rate(23.56%)was significantly lower in the medical group than in the surgical group.The incomplete abortion rate was higher in the medical group(17.12%,25/146)than in the surgical group(2.88%,16/556).Among the medical group,14 patients(9.59%)required curettage due to incomplete abortion,while 11 cases resolved spontaneously after prolonged medication.ROC curve analysis identified two cut-off values indicating the need for surgical intervention:endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h post-medical abortion,and residual mass diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion.Conclusions:Medical management of first-trimester missed miscarriage using mifepristone-misoprostol demonstrates comparable efficacy to surgical curettage.An endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h or residual tissue diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion should prompt consideration of incomplete abortion.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2022YFC2503600。
文摘BACKGROUND The discrepancy between endoscopic biopsy pathology and the overall pathology of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia(LGIN)presents challenges in developing diagnostic and treatment protocols.AIM To develop a risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN to aid clinical diagnosis and treatment.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed data from patients newly diagnosed with gastric LGIN who underwent complete endoscopic resection within 6 months at the First Medical Center of Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital between January 2008 and December 2023.A risk prediction model for the pathological progression of gastric LGIN was constructed and evaluated for accuracy and clinical applicability.RESULTS A total of 171 patients were included in this study:93 patients with high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia or early gastric cancer and 78 with LGIN.The logistic stepwise regression model demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity of 0.868 and 0.800,respectively,while the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression model showed sensitivity and specificity values of 0.842 and 0.840,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)for the logistic model was 0.896,slightly lower than the AUC of 0.904 for the LASSO model.Internal validation with 30%of the data yielded AUC scores of 0.908 for the logistic model and 0.905 for the LASSO model.The LASSO model provided greater utility in clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION A risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN based on white-light and magnifying endoscopic features can accurately and effectively guide clinical diagnosis and treatment.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program,No.2022YFC2407304Major Research Project for Middle-Aged and Young Scientists of Fujian Provincial Health Commission,No.2021ZQNZD013+2 种基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.62275050Fujian Province Science and Technology Innovation Joint Fund Project,No.2019Y9108Major Science and Technology Projects of Fujian Province,No.2021YZ036017.
文摘BACKGROUND To investigate the preoperative factors influencing textbook outcomes(TO)in Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)patients and evaluate the feasibility of an interpretable machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO,we developed a machine learning model for preoperative prediction of TO and used the SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)technique to illustrate the prediction process.AIM To analyze the factors influencing textbook outcomes before surgery and to establish interpretable machine learning models for preoperative prediction.METHODS A total of 376 patients diagnosed with ICC were retrospectively collected from four major medical institutions in China,covering the period from 2011 to 2017.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify preoperative variables associated with achieving TO.Based on these variables,an EXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)machine learning prediction model was constructed using the XGBoost package.The SHAP(package:Shapviz)algorithm was employed to visualize each variable's contribution to the model's predictions.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare the prognostic differences between the TO-achieving and non-TO-achieving groups.RESULTS Among 376 patients,287 were included in the training group and 89 in the validation group.Logistic regression identified the following preoperative variables influencing TO:Child-Pugh classification,Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group(ECOG)score,hepatitis B,and tumor size.The XGBoost prediction model demonstrated high accuracy in internal validation(AUC=0.8825)and external validation(AUC=0.8346).Survival analysis revealed that the disease-free survival rates for patients achieving TO at 1,2,and 3 years were 64.2%,56.8%,and 43.4%,respectively.CONCLUSION Child-Pugh classification,ECOG score,hepatitis B,and tumor size are preoperative predictors of TO.In both the training group and the validation group,the machine learning model had certain effectiveness in predicting TO before surgery.The SHAP algorithm provided intuitive visualization of the machine learning prediction process,enhancing its interpretability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grant Nos.:32170680 and T2122018)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai,China(Grant No.:21ZR1476000)the CAS Youth Innovation Promotion Association,China(Grant No.:Y2022076).
文摘Personalized drug response prediction from molecular data is an important challenge in precision medicine for treating cancer.Computational methods have been widely explored and have become increasingly accurate in recent years.However,the clinical application of prediction methods is still in its infancy due to large discrepancies between preclinial models and patients.We present a novel disentangled synthesis transfer network(DiSyn)for drug response prediction specifically designed for transfer learning from preclinical models to clinical patients.DiSyn uses a domain separation network(DSN)to disentangle drug response related features,employs data synthesis technology to increase the sample size and iteratively trains for better feature disentanglement.DiSyn is pretrained on large-scale unlabeled cancer samples and validated by three datasets,The Cancer Genome Atlas(TCGA),Investigation of Serial Studies to Predict Your Therapeutic Response With Imaging And moLecular Analysis 2(I-SPY2)and Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research Patient-Derived Xenograft Encyclopedia(NIBR PDXE),achieving competitive performance with the state-of-the-art methods on cancer patients and mice.Furthermore,the application of DiSyn to thousands of breast cancer patients show the heterogeneity in drug responses and demonstrate its potential value in biomarker discovery and drug combination prediction.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62173255,62188101)Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Control Theory and Intelligent Systems(ZDSYS20220330161800001)
文摘Dear Editor,In this letter,a constrained networked predictive control strategy is proposed for the optimal control problem of complex nonlinear highorder fully actuated(HOFA)systems with noises.The method can effectively deal with nonlinearities,constraints,and noises in the system,optimize the performance metric,and present an upper bound on the stable output of the system.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of Jiangsu Coastal Power Infrastructure Intelligent Engineering Research Center“Photovoltaic Power Prediction System Driven by Deep Learning and Multi-Source Data Fusion”(F2024-5044).
文摘Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.
文摘BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies to date have found preoperative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)features valuable in predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer(RC).However,research is still lacking on the correlation between preoperative MRI features and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC,urgently necessitating further in-depth exploration.AIM To investigate the correlation between preoperative MRI parameters and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC to provide an effective tool for predicting postoperative recurrence.METHODS The data of 90 patients who were diagnosed with RC by surgical pathology and underwent radical surgical resection at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University between May 2020 and December 2023 were collected through retrospective analysis.General demographic data,MRI data,and tumor markers levels were collected.According to the reviewed data of patients six months after surgery,the clinicians comprehensively assessed the recurrence risk and divided the patients into high recurrence risk(37 cases)and low recurrence risk(53 cases)groups.Independent sample t-test andχ2 test were used to analyze differences between the two groups.A logistic regression model was used to explore the risk factors of the high recurrence risk group,and a clinical prediction model was constructed.The clinical prediction model is presented in the form of a nomogram.The receiver operating characteristic curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the efficacy of the clinical prediction model.RESULTS The detection of positive extramural vascular invasion through preoperative MRI[odds ratio(OR)=4.29,P=0.045],along with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen(OR=1.08,P=0.041),carbohydrate antigen 125(OR=1.19,P=0.034),and carbohydrate antigen 199(OR=1.27,P<0.001)levels,are independent risk factors for increased postoperative recurrence risk in patients with RC.Furthermore,there was a correlation between magnetic resonance based T staging,magnetic resonance based N staging,and circumferential resection margin results determined by MRI and the postoperative recurrence risk.Additionally,when extramural vascular invasion was integrated with tumor markers,the resulting clinical prediction model more effectively identified patients at high risk for postoperative recurrence,thereby providing robust support for clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION The results of this study indicate that preoperative MRI detection is of great importance for predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with RC.Monitoring these markers helps clinicians identify patients at high risk,allowing for more aggressive treatment and monitoring strategies to improve patient outcomes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82371300)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(LY23H090014)Zhejiang Province Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Project(2024ZL1215).
文摘Stroke,a major cerebrovascular disease,has high morbidity and mortality.Effective methods to reduce the risk and improve the prognosis are lacking.Currently,uric acid(UA)is associated with the pathological mechanism,prognosis,and therapy of stroke.UA plays pro/anti-oxidative and pro-inflammatory roles in vivo.The specific role of UA in stroke,which may have both neuroprotective and damaging effects,remains unclear.There is a U-shaped association between serum uric acid(SUA)levels and ischemic stroke(IS).UA therapy provides neuroprotection during reperfusion therapy for acute ischemic stroke(AIS).Urate-lowering therapy(ULT)plays a protective role in IS with hyperuricemia or gout.SUA levels are associated with the cerebrovascular injury mechanism,risk,and outcomes of hemorrhagic stroke.In this review,we summarize the current research on the role of UA in stroke,providing potential targets for its prediction and treatment.
基金in part supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,42405147 and 42475054)in part by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20230071)。
文摘Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
基金upported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.:2023YFF1204904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.:U23A20530 and 82173746)Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Optogenetic Techniques for Cell Metabolism(Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China).
文摘Negative logarithm of the acid dissociation constant(pK_(a))significantly influences the absorption,dis-tribution,metabolism,excretion,and toxicity(ADMET)properties of molecules and is a crucial indicator in drug research.Given the rapid and accurate characteristics of computational methods,their role in predicting drug properties is increasingly important.Although many pK_(a) prediction models currently exist,they often focus on enhancing model precision while neglecting interpretability.In this study,we present GraFpKa,a pK_(a) prediction model using graph neural networks(GNNs)and molecular finger-prints.The results show that our acidic and basic models achieved mean absolute errors(MAEs)of 0.621 and 0.402,respectively,on the test set,demonstrating good predictive performance.Notably,to improve interpretability,GraFpKa also incorporates Integrated Gradients(IGs),providing a clearer visual description of the atoms significantly affecting the pK_(a) values.The high reliability and interpretability of GraFpKa ensure accurate pKa predictions while also facilitating a deeper understanding of the relation-ship between molecular structure and pK_(a) values,making it a valuable tool in the field of pK_(a) prediction.
基金Construction Program of the Key Discipline of State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine of China(ZYYZDXK-2023069)Research Project of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2024QN018)Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Development Program (23KFL005)。
文摘Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocardiographic data,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)tongue manifestations,and facial features were collected from patients who underwent coro-nary computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Cardiac Care Unit(CCU)of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between May 1,2023 and May 1,2024.An adaptive weighted multi-modal data fusion(AWMDF)model based on deep learning was constructed to predict the severity of coronary artery stenosis.The model was evaluated using metrics including accura-cy,precision,recall,F1 score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Further performance assessment was conducted through comparisons with six ensemble machine learning methods,data ablation,model component ablation,and various decision-level fusion strategies.Results A total of 158 patients were included in the study.The AWMDF model achieved ex-cellent predictive performance(AUC=0.973,accuracy=0.937,precision=0.937,recall=0.929,and F1 score=0.933).Compared with model ablation,data ablation experiments,and various traditional machine learning models,the AWMDF model demonstrated superior per-formance.Moreover,the adaptive weighting strategy outperformed alternative approaches,including simple weighting,averaging,voting,and fixed-weight schemes.Conclusion The AWMDF model demonstrates potential clinical value in the non-invasive prediction of coronary artery disease and could serve as a tool for clinical decision support.
