Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological dat...Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.展开更多
Understanding climate-growth relationships is essential for adaptive forest management.By using a more detailed approach(daily climatic data),we sought to uncover finer-scale climatic effects on European larch(Larix d...Understanding climate-growth relationships is essential for adaptive forest management.By using a more detailed approach(daily climatic data),we sought to uncover finer-scale climatic effects on European larch(Larix decidua)growth in the Tatra Mountains(the Western Carpathians),providing a more nuanced understanding of the climate-growth response in the mountain ecosystem.We analyzed tree-ring width index(TRWI)chronology with daily mean temperature,insolation duration,and precipitation records from 1950 to 2019,and in two subperiods(1950-1984 and 1985-2019).Larch growth is strongly affected by temperature,insolation duration,and precipitation,but with different positive or negative influences and varied intensity across various subperiods.The climate-growth analysis indicates that larch benefited from warm,sunny,and dry late winters and springs,as well as warm summers during the entire analyzed period.However,in the last decades,the previously strong and significant influence of March-July temperature has mostly disappeared,becoming limited to only a few days(June).Notably,the formerly strong negative influence of summer and early autumn temperatures and insolation duration in the previous year disappeared.In the earlier subperiod,larch growth showed strong positive responses to late-summer/early autumn precipitation of the previous year and negative effects from spring to late-summer rainfall.In recent decades,these patterns have weakened but still limited the growth.Our results revealed significant changes in the larch growth response,highlighting its adaptability to fluctuating environmental conditions.In recent decades,the influence of temperature,insolation duration,and precipitation on radial growth has weakened,which suggests that climate change has had a positive impact on tree growth in the Tatra Mountains.These findings suggest that rising temperatures in European mountain regions may alter the climatic sensitivity of tree species.Understanding these changes is crucial to improving resilience-based management strategies in the face of climate change.展开更多
Climate change significantly affects environment,ecosystems,communities,and economies.These impacts often result in quick and gradual changes in water resources,environmental conditions,and weather patterns.A geograph...Climate change significantly affects environment,ecosystems,communities,and economies.These impacts often result in quick and gradual changes in water resources,environmental conditions,and weather patterns.A geographical study was conducted in Arizona State,USA,to examine monthly precipi-tation concentration rates over time.This analysis used a high-resolution 0.50×0.50 grid for monthly precip-itation data from 1961 to 2022,Provided by the Climatic Research Unit.The study aimed to analyze climatic changes affected the first and last five years of each decade,as well as the entire decade,during the specified period.GIS was used to meet the objectives of this study.Arizona experienced 51–568 mm,67–560 mm,63–622 mm,and 52–590 mm of rainfall in the sixth,seventh,eighth,and ninth decades of the second millennium,respectively.Both the first and second five year periods of each decade showed accept-able rainfall amounts despite fluctuations.However,rainfall decreased in the first and second decades of the third millennium.and in the first two years of the third decade.Rainfall amounts dropped to 42–472 mm,55–469 mm,and 74–498 mm,respectively,indicating a downward trend in precipitation.The central part of the state received the highest rainfall,while the eastern and western regions(spanning north to south)had significantly less.Over the decades of the third millennium,the average annual rainfall every five years was relatively low,showing a declining trend due to severe climate changes,generally ranging between 35 mm and 498 mm.The central regions consistently received more rainfall than the eastern and western outskirts.Arizona is currently experiencing a decrease in rainfall due to climate change,a situation that could deterio-rate further.This highlights the need to optimize the use of existing rainfall and explore alternative water sources.展开更多
BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery...BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery speed and quality of life.Effective prevention of anxiety and depression in elderly patients has become an urgent problem.AIM To investigate the trajectory of anxiety and depression levels in elderly patients after LIF,and the influencing factors.METHODS Random sampling was used to select 239 elderly patients who underwent LIF from January 2020 to December 2024 in Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital.General information and surgery-related indices were recorded,and participants completed measures of psychological status,lumbar spine dysfunction,and quality of life.A latent class growth model was used to analyze the post-LIF trajectory of anxiety and depression levels,and unordered multi-categorical logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors.RESULTS Three trajectories of change in anxiety level were identified:Increasing anxiety(n=26,10.88%),decreasing anxiety(n=27,11.30%),and stable anxiety(n=186,77.82%).Likewise,three trajectories of change in depression level were identified:Increasing depression(n=30,12.55%),decreasing depression(n=26,10.88%),and stable depression(n=183,76.57%).Regression analysis showed that having no partner,female sex,elevated Oswestry dysfunction index(ODI)scores,and reduced 36-Item Short Form Health Survey scores all contributed to increased anxiety levels,whereas female sex,postoperative opioid use,and elevated ODI scores all contributed to increased depression levels.CONCLUSION During clinical observation,combining factors to predict anxiety and depression in post-LIF elderly patients enables timely intervention,quickens recovery,and enhances quality of life.展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
China＇s dryland region has serious wind erosion problem and is sensitive to climate change due to its fragile ecological condition. Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic factors influencing wind er...China＇s dryland region has serious wind erosion problem and is sensitive to climate change due to its fragile ecological condition. Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic factors influencing wind erosion, therefore, evaluation of its intensity and response to recent climate changes can contribute to the understanding of climate change effect on wind erosion risk. Using the FAO equation, GIS and statistical analysis tools, this study quantified the climatic erosivity, analyzed its spatiotemporal variations, and detected the trend and sen- sitivity to climate factors during 1961-2012. The results indicate that mean annual climatic erosivity was 2-166 at 292 stations and 237-471 at 6 stations, with the spatial distribution highly in accordance with wind speed （R^2 = 0.94）. The climatic erosivity varied greatly over time with the annual variation （CV） of 14.7%-108.9% and monthly variation （concentration degree） of 0.10-0.71 in the region. Meanwhile, annual erosivity showed a significant down- ward trend at an annual decreasing rate mostly above 1.0%. This significantly decreasing trend was mainly attributed to the obvious decline of wind speed during the period. The results suggest that the recent climate changes were highly possible to induce a decrease of wind erosion risk in China＇s dryland region.展开更多
A thorough understanding of the vegetation succession in relation to both climatic changes and anthropogenic activities is vital for the formulation of adaptation strategies that address potential ecosystem challenges...A thorough understanding of the vegetation succession in relation to both climatic changes and anthropogenic activities is vital for the formulation of adaptation strategies that address potential ecosystem challenges.Various climatic factors such as temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation,as well as anthropogenic factors such as ecological engineering and population migration,will affect the conditions for vegetation.However,the relationships among various factors remain unclear and the response of vegetation to climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Loess Plateau of China has not been well established.This study investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics and relationships between vegetation coverage and climatic factors in the Loess Plateau for the period of 1985–2015.Further analysis separated the anthropogenic and climatic factors on vegetation succession based on residual analysis.The results showed that the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)followed a significant upward trend with annual change rates of 0.15%during 1985–2015.The trend of human-induced NDVI increase was consistent with the spatial distribution of increasing forest areas in the eastern part of the Loess Plateau.Eco-restoration projects were the main driving factors that promoted vegetation coverage on the Loess Plateau.Furthermore,these results demonstrated that migrants to cities in the Loess Plateau could relieve ecological pressures and promote vegetation restoration.Therefore,the government should strive to increase population mobility and restore vegetation to sustain this particularly fragile ecological environment.展开更多
This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipit...This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.展开更多
Based on the δ13C and δ18O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO3 content and sporopollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes a...Based on the δ13C and δ18O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO3 content and sporopollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ18O, δ13C and CaCO3 appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ18O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ13C, pollen and CaCO3 analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P.-10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P.-8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P.-5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.-1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.展开更多
To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes,the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeaste...To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes,the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeastern China over the last 300 years,and its climatic effects were simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Essential natural vegetation records compiled from historical documents and regional optimal surface albedo dataset were used.The results show that the surface albedo decreased by 0.01-0.03 due to conversions from grassland to cropland in the Northeast China Plain and it increased by 0.005-0.015 due to conversions from forests to cropland in the surrounding mountains.As a consequence,in the Northeast China Plain,the surface net radiation increased by 4-8 W/m 2,2-5 W/m 2,and 1-3 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore warmed by 0.1℃-0.2℃、0.1℃-0.2℃、 0.1℃-0.3 ℃ in the spring,autumn and winter,respectively.In the surrounding mountain area,the net radiation decreased by less than 1.5 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore cooled too slight to be detected.In summer,effects of surface albedo changes on climate were closely associated with moisture dynamics,such as evapotranspiration and cloud,instead of being merely determined by surface radiation budget.The simulated summer climatic effects have large uncertainties.These findings demonstrate that surface albedo changes resulted in warming climate effects in the non-rainy seasons in Northeast China Plain through surface radiation processes while the climatic effects in summer could hardly be concluded so far.展开更多
Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this p...Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this paper we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km2, respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km2, respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change. On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economic driving forces, population augment, regional economic development, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change.展开更多
Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and ou...Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.展开更多
Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorhe...Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km2 in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has signif- icantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacie^lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions （decreased precipitation and increased temperatures） that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976-1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995-2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.展开更多
Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet...Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet analysis. The research results indicate that January precipitation presents an increasing trend after 1990, wavelet analysis result suggests that this increasing trend will continue in the near future. The changes of July precipitation present different features. During 1900-1960, July precipitation is in a rising trend, but is in a declining trend after 1960. Wavelet analysis shows that this declining trend will go on in the near future. Temperature variations in Shanghai are in fluctuations with 2 to 3 temperature rising periods. Mann-Kendall analysis indicates that temperature variations have the obvious abrupt change time when compared with precipitation changes in Shanghai during the past 100 years. The abrupt change time of January temperature lies in 1985, and that of July temperature lies in 1931-1933 and annual mean temperature has the abrupt change time in 1923-1930. Except July precipitation, the precipitation in January, temperature in January, July and annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are also in a rising trend in the near future. The research results in this paper may be meaningful for future further climatic changes of Shanghai and social mitigation of climatic disasters in the future.展开更多
Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood dis...Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4 o N-4 o S and 150 o W-90 o W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent.展开更多
Based on the analyses of environmental proxy data in lake sediments and instrumental records of Xinjiang in northwest China, the Holocene climate and hydrological variability and its environmental responses were studi...Based on the analyses of environmental proxy data in lake sediments and instrumental records of Xinjiang in northwest China, the Holocene climate and hydrological variability and its environmental responses were studied in different time scales and regions. The results showed that the Holocene climate variability had obvious differences between the north and south of Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the Holocene climate was dry in the early period, humid in the middle period, and then changed to dry in the late period. However, the climate transition times were not consistent in different regions. In southern Xin- jiang, although there were many different types of climate change patterns inferred from different catch- ments, the warm and wet climate was recorded in most lake sediments in the middle Holocene. According to comparisons of some millennium scale records in lake sediments, the climate was warm and dry in the past 100 years. It can be concluded the climate showed a trend of aridity in Holocene. Especially in recent 50 years, the lake area has been shrinking rapidly because of the population growth and social economic development, which brings some environmental problems. Lake level and area changes were sensitively affected by the climate variation in geological history of Xinjiang and the lake level will continue to shrink because of the drought climate and strengthened human activities.展开更多
The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years, ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonab...The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years, ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonable resource development increased gradually. In this paper, the spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are analyzed in recent 10 years based on 1-km resolution multi-temporal SPOTVGT-DN data from 1998 to 2007. Meanwhile, the cor- relation relationships between air temperature, precipitation, shallow ground temperature and NDVI, which is 3x3 pixel at the center of Wudaoliang, Tuotuohe, Qumalai, Maduo, and Dari meteorological stations were analyzed. The results show that the NDVI values in these two source regions are increasing in recent 10 years. Spatial distribution of NDVI which was consistent with hydrothermal condition decreased from southeast to northwest of the source regions. NDVI with a value over 0.54 was mainly distributed in the southeastern source region of the Yellow River, and most NDVI values in the northwestern source region of the Yangtze River were less than 0.22. Spatial changing trend of NDVI has great difference and most parts in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers witnessed indistinct change. The regions with marked increasing trend were mainly distributed on the south side of the Tongtian River, some part of Keqianqu, Tongtian, Chumaer, and Tuotuo rivers in the source region of the Yangtze River and Xingsuhai, and southern Dari county in the source region of the Yellow River. The regions with very marked increasing tendency were mainly distributed on the south side of Tongtian Rriver and sporadically distributed in hinterland of the source re- gion of the Yangtze River. The north side of Tangula Range in the source region of the Yangtze River and Dari and Maduo counties in the source region of the Yellow River were areas in which NDVI changed with marked decreasing tendency. The NDVI change was positively correlated with average temperature, precipitation and shallow ground temperature. Shallow ground temperature had the greatest effect on NDVI change, and the second greatest factor influencing NDVI was average temperature. The correlation between NDVI and shallow ground temperature in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers increased significantly with the depth of soil layer.展开更多
Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic su...Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic susceptibility and grain size, we inferred that the northwestern margin of East Asian monsoon region experienced abrupt climatic changes during the last deglaciation. Six oscillation events were identified: Oldest Dryas, Bolling, Older Dryas, Allerod, Intra-Allerod Cold Period (IACP) and Younger Dryas (YD). The summer monsoon was weaker during Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas when the winter monsoon was stronger. However, during the B/A (Bolling/Allerod) period, the summer monsoon strengthened, reflected by magnetic susceptibility, when the winter monsoon also became strong, which is different from the paleoclimatic pattern established in the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, the summer monsoon was nearly in phase with the climate changes inferred from the oxygen isotopic records of Greenland ice cores. It could be speculated that the variations of the sea ice cover in the high latitudes of the North Hemisphere affected the high pressure of Asian continent and the changes of the winter monsoon inland. On the other hand, the sea ice cover variations might have indirectly caused the occurrence of ENSO events that has tightly been related to the summer monsoon in northwest margin of East Asian monsoon region.展开更多
Climate change can affect wind erosion power and hence induce changes in wind erosion rates.In this study,the wind erosion climate factor(C-factor),proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Natio...Climate change can affect wind erosion power and hence induce changes in wind erosion rates.In this study,the wind erosion climate factor(C-factor),proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,was used to assess the impact of changes in climate on wind erosion climatic erosivity.The Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect trends in the C-factor during the period of 1961–2017 in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China.Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the sensitivity of the C-factor to changes in key climate factors.Furthermore,a comparison of the contributions of different climate factors was carried out to understand their impact on changes in the C-factor.The results indicated that most of the surveyed region exhibited decreasing trends in wind speed at a confidence level of 90%,while maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends throughout the study area.As a consequence of decreasing wind speed,the annual C-factor exhibited significant decreasing trends,with a mean slope of–0.58/yr.Seasonal analysis revealed that in most regions,the changes in the C-factor had significant decreasing trends in spring,winter,and autumn,while in more than two-thirds of the study area,no significant change trends in the C-factor were detected in summer at a confidence level of 90%.Sensitivity analysis showed that the C-factor was most sensitive to wind speed,and that the sensitivity coefficients from July to September were much higher than those in other months.Contribution analysis revealed that,for most stations,wind speed(with greater values of sensitivity coefficients)was the dominant factor in the change of C-factor,while for some stations,the minimum temperature made the most contribution to the C-factor’s change due to its dramatic changes during the study period.Although the minimum temperature sensitivity coefficient was the lowest of all the sensitivity coefficients,it is urgent to evaluate the expected impact of minimum temperature due to its possible changes in the future.展开更多
Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cro...Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.展开更多
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0407303)“Young Talents”Project of Northeast Agricultural University(No.20QC13)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.E2017009)。
文摘Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.
基金funded by the National Science Centre Poland(Grant no.N N30971124)(Tomasz Zielonka)statutory funds of:the W.Szafer Institute of Botany,Polish Academy of Sciences(Katarzyna Izworska),the Institute of Biology and Earth Sciences,University of the National Education Commission(Tomasz Zielonka),and the Department of Forest Biodiversity,University of Agriculture in Krakow(Elżbieta Muter).
文摘Understanding climate-growth relationships is essential for adaptive forest management.By using a more detailed approach(daily climatic data),we sought to uncover finer-scale climatic effects on European larch(Larix decidua)growth in the Tatra Mountains(the Western Carpathians),providing a more nuanced understanding of the climate-growth response in the mountain ecosystem.We analyzed tree-ring width index(TRWI)chronology with daily mean temperature,insolation duration,and precipitation records from 1950 to 2019,and in two subperiods(1950-1984 and 1985-2019).Larch growth is strongly affected by temperature,insolation duration,and precipitation,but with different positive or negative influences and varied intensity across various subperiods.The climate-growth analysis indicates that larch benefited from warm,sunny,and dry late winters and springs,as well as warm summers during the entire analyzed period.However,in the last decades,the previously strong and significant influence of March-July temperature has mostly disappeared,becoming limited to only a few days(June).Notably,the formerly strong negative influence of summer and early autumn temperatures and insolation duration in the previous year disappeared.In the earlier subperiod,larch growth showed strong positive responses to late-summer/early autumn precipitation of the previous year and negative effects from spring to late-summer rainfall.In recent decades,these patterns have weakened but still limited the growth.Our results revealed significant changes in the larch growth response,highlighting its adaptability to fluctuating environmental conditions.In recent decades,the influence of temperature,insolation duration,and precipitation on radial growth has weakened,which suggests that climate change has had a positive impact on tree growth in the Tatra Mountains.These findings suggest that rising temperatures in European mountain regions may alter the climatic sensitivity of tree species.Understanding these changes is crucial to improving resilience-based management strategies in the face of climate change.
文摘Climate change significantly affects environment,ecosystems,communities,and economies.These impacts often result in quick and gradual changes in water resources,environmental conditions,and weather patterns.A geographical study was conducted in Arizona State,USA,to examine monthly precipi-tation concentration rates over time.This analysis used a high-resolution 0.50×0.50 grid for monthly precip-itation data from 1961 to 2022,Provided by the Climatic Research Unit.The study aimed to analyze climatic changes affected the first and last five years of each decade,as well as the entire decade,during the specified period.GIS was used to meet the objectives of this study.Arizona experienced 51–568 mm,67–560 mm,63–622 mm,and 52–590 mm of rainfall in the sixth,seventh,eighth,and ninth decades of the second millennium,respectively.Both the first and second five year periods of each decade showed accept-able rainfall amounts despite fluctuations.However,rainfall decreased in the first and second decades of the third millennium.and in the first two years of the third decade.Rainfall amounts dropped to 42–472 mm,55–469 mm,and 74–498 mm,respectively,indicating a downward trend in precipitation.The central part of the state received the highest rainfall,while the eastern and western regions(spanning north to south)had significantly less.Over the decades of the third millennium,the average annual rainfall every five years was relatively low,showing a declining trend due to severe climate changes,generally ranging between 35 mm and 498 mm.The central regions consistently received more rainfall than the eastern and western outskirts.Arizona is currently experiencing a decrease in rainfall due to climate change,a situation that could deterio-rate further.This highlights the need to optimize the use of existing rainfall and explore alternative water sources.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Projects of the Health System in Pingshan District,No.2023122.
文摘BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery speed and quality of life.Effective prevention of anxiety and depression in elderly patients has become an urgent problem.AIM To investigate the trajectory of anxiety and depression levels in elderly patients after LIF,and the influencing factors.METHODS Random sampling was used to select 239 elderly patients who underwent LIF from January 2020 to December 2024 in Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital.General information and surgery-related indices were recorded,and participants completed measures of psychological status,lumbar spine dysfunction,and quality of life.A latent class growth model was used to analyze the post-LIF trajectory of anxiety and depression levels,and unordered multi-categorical logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors.RESULTS Three trajectories of change in anxiety level were identified:Increasing anxiety(n=26,10.88%),decreasing anxiety(n=27,11.30%),and stable anxiety(n=186,77.82%).Likewise,three trajectories of change in depression level were identified:Increasing depression(n=30,12.55%),decreasing depression(n=26,10.88%),and stable depression(n=183,76.57%).Regression analysis showed that having no partner,female sex,elevated Oswestry dysfunction index(ODI)scores,and reduced 36-Item Short Form Health Survey scores all contributed to increased anxiety levels,whereas female sex,postoperative opioid use,and elevated ODI scores all contributed to increased depression levels.CONCLUSION During clinical observation,combining factors to predict anxiety and depression in post-LIF elderly patients enables timely intervention,quickens recovery,and enhances quality of life.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
文摘China＇s dryland region has serious wind erosion problem and is sensitive to climate change due to its fragile ecological condition. Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic factors influencing wind erosion, therefore, evaluation of its intensity and response to recent climate changes can contribute to the understanding of climate change effect on wind erosion risk. Using the FAO equation, GIS and statistical analysis tools, this study quantified the climatic erosivity, analyzed its spatiotemporal variations, and detected the trend and sen- sitivity to climate factors during 1961-2012. The results indicate that mean annual climatic erosivity was 2-166 at 292 stations and 237-471 at 6 stations, with the spatial distribution highly in accordance with wind speed （R^2 = 0.94）. The climatic erosivity varied greatly over time with the annual variation （CV） of 14.7%-108.9% and monthly variation （concentration degree） of 0.10-0.71 in the region. Meanwhile, annual erosivity showed a significant down- ward trend at an annual decreasing rate mostly above 1.0%. This significantly decreasing trend was mainly attributed to the obvious decline of wind speed during the period. The results suggest that the recent climate changes were highly possible to induce a decrease of wind erosion risk in China＇s dryland region.
基金Under the auspices of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC0504701)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41971220,41701119,41471143)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.15ZDA021)
文摘A thorough understanding of the vegetation succession in relation to both climatic changes and anthropogenic activities is vital for the formulation of adaptation strategies that address potential ecosystem challenges.Various climatic factors such as temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation,as well as anthropogenic factors such as ecological engineering and population migration,will affect the conditions for vegetation.However,the relationships among various factors remain unclear and the response of vegetation to climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Loess Plateau of China has not been well established.This study investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics and relationships between vegetation coverage and climatic factors in the Loess Plateau for the period of 1985–2015.Further analysis separated the anthropogenic and climatic factors on vegetation succession based on residual analysis.The results showed that the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)followed a significant upward trend with annual change rates of 0.15%during 1985–2015.The trend of human-induced NDVI increase was consistent with the spatial distribution of increasing forest areas in the eastern part of the Loess Plateau.Eco-restoration projects were the main driving factors that promoted vegetation coverage on the Loess Plateau.Furthermore,these results demonstrated that migrants to cities in the Loess Plateau could relieve ecological pressures and promote vegetation restoration.Therefore,the government should strive to increase population mobility and restore vegetation to sustain this particularly fragile ecological environment.
基金supported by the Special Climate Change Research Program of China Meteorological Ad-ministration (No.062700s010c01)the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (No.201206024)
文摘This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.
文摘Based on the δ13C and δ18O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO3 content and sporopollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ18O, δ13C and CaCO3 appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ18O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ13C, pollen and CaCO3 analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P.-10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P.-8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P.-5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.-1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41001122)China Global Change Research Program(No.2010CB950102,2010CB950903)State-Sponsored Study Abroad Programs from China Scholarship Council(No.2007U21061)
文摘To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes,the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeastern China over the last 300 years,and its climatic effects were simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Essential natural vegetation records compiled from historical documents and regional optimal surface albedo dataset were used.The results show that the surface albedo decreased by 0.01-0.03 due to conversions from grassland to cropland in the Northeast China Plain and it increased by 0.005-0.015 due to conversions from forests to cropland in the surrounding mountains.As a consequence,in the Northeast China Plain,the surface net radiation increased by 4-8 W/m 2,2-5 W/m 2,and 1-3 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore warmed by 0.1℃-0.2℃、0.1℃-0.2℃、 0.1℃-0.3 ℃ in the spring,autumn and winter,respectively.In the surrounding mountain area,the net radiation decreased by less than 1.5 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore cooled too slight to be detected.In summer,effects of surface albedo changes on climate were closely associated with moisture dynamics,such as evapotranspiration and cloud,instead of being merely determined by surface radiation budget.The simulated summer climatic effects have large uncertainties.These findings demonstrate that surface albedo changes resulted in warming climate effects in the non-rainy seasons in Northeast China Plain through surface radiation processes while the climatic effects in summer could hardly be concluded so far.
基金Under the auspices of the Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-341)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40871187, 40801208)
文摘Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this paper we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km2, respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km2, respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change. On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economic driving forces, population augment, regional economic development, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change.
基金Supported by Scientific Research Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (201106020)China Meteorological BureauClimate Changes Special Fund (CCSF-09-12)
文摘Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.
基金funded by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2010CB951701by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071042)supported by the Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-BR-22)
文摘Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km2 in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has signif- icantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacie^lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions （decreased precipitation and increased temperatures） that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976-1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995-2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.
基金Chinese Post-D octoralFoundation Wang,K C Post-doctoralEducation Foundation (H ong K ong)
文摘Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet analysis. The research results indicate that January precipitation presents an increasing trend after 1990, wavelet analysis result suggests that this increasing trend will continue in the near future. The changes of July precipitation present different features. During 1900-1960, July precipitation is in a rising trend, but is in a declining trend after 1960. Wavelet analysis shows that this declining trend will go on in the near future. Temperature variations in Shanghai are in fluctuations with 2 to 3 temperature rising periods. Mann-Kendall analysis indicates that temperature variations have the obvious abrupt change time when compared with precipitation changes in Shanghai during the past 100 years. The abrupt change time of January temperature lies in 1985, and that of July temperature lies in 1931-1933 and annual mean temperature has the abrupt change time in 1923-1930. Except July precipitation, the precipitation in January, temperature in January, July and annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are also in a rising trend in the near future. The research results in this paper may be meaningful for future further climatic changes of Shanghai and social mitigation of climatic disasters in the future.
基金Sino-France Cooperation Foundation (PRA E02-07) The key project of CAS+3 种基金No.KZCX3-SW-331 National Natural Science Foundation of China No.40271112 Foundation of Key Laboratory of Flood and Waterlogging and Wet Land Agriculture of Hubei Province
文摘Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4 o N-4 o S and 150 o W-90 o W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-308)the National Basic Research Program of China (2006FY110600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41071139 and 40971117)
文摘Based on the analyses of environmental proxy data in lake sediments and instrumental records of Xinjiang in northwest China, the Holocene climate and hydrological variability and its environmental responses were studied in different time scales and regions. The results showed that the Holocene climate variability had obvious differences between the north and south of Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the Holocene climate was dry in the early period, humid in the middle period, and then changed to dry in the late period. However, the climate transition times were not consistent in different regions. In southern Xin- jiang, although there were many different types of climate change patterns inferred from different catch- ments, the warm and wet climate was recorded in most lake sediments in the middle Holocene. According to comparisons of some millennium scale records in lake sediments, the climate was warm and dry in the past 100 years. It can be concluded the climate showed a trend of aridity in Holocene. Especially in recent 50 years, the lake area has been shrinking rapidly because of the population growth and social economic development, which brings some environmental problems. Lake level and area changes were sensitively affected by the climate variation in geological history of Xinjiang and the lake level will continue to shrink because of the drought climate and strengthened human activities.
基金National Basic Task Project, No.2006FY110200Strategic pilot programs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA05060700Ministry of Environmental Protection Special Funds for Scientific Research on Public Causes, No.200909050
文摘The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years, ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonable resource development increased gradually. In this paper, the spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are analyzed in recent 10 years based on 1-km resolution multi-temporal SPOTVGT-DN data from 1998 to 2007. Meanwhile, the cor- relation relationships between air temperature, precipitation, shallow ground temperature and NDVI, which is 3x3 pixel at the center of Wudaoliang, Tuotuohe, Qumalai, Maduo, and Dari meteorological stations were analyzed. The results show that the NDVI values in these two source regions are increasing in recent 10 years. Spatial distribution of NDVI which was consistent with hydrothermal condition decreased from southeast to northwest of the source regions. NDVI with a value over 0.54 was mainly distributed in the southeastern source region of the Yellow River, and most NDVI values in the northwestern source region of the Yangtze River were less than 0.22. Spatial changing trend of NDVI has great difference and most parts in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers witnessed indistinct change. The regions with marked increasing trend were mainly distributed on the south side of the Tongtian River, some part of Keqianqu, Tongtian, Chumaer, and Tuotuo rivers in the source region of the Yangtze River and Xingsuhai, and southern Dari county in the source region of the Yellow River. The regions with very marked increasing tendency were mainly distributed on the south side of Tongtian Rriver and sporadically distributed in hinterland of the source re- gion of the Yangtze River. The north side of Tangula Range in the source region of the Yangtze River and Dari and Maduo counties in the source region of the Yellow River were areas in which NDVI changed with marked decreasing tendency. The NDVI change was positively correlated with average temperature, precipitation and shallow ground temperature. Shallow ground temperature had the greatest effect on NDVI change, and the second greatest factor influencing NDVI was average temperature. The correlation between NDVI and shallow ground temperature in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers increased significantly with the depth of soil layer.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40271114, 40301051)
文摘Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic susceptibility and grain size, we inferred that the northwestern margin of East Asian monsoon region experienced abrupt climatic changes during the last deglaciation. Six oscillation events were identified: Oldest Dryas, Bolling, Older Dryas, Allerod, Intra-Allerod Cold Period (IACP) and Younger Dryas (YD). The summer monsoon was weaker during Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas when the winter monsoon was stronger. However, during the B/A (Bolling/Allerod) period, the summer monsoon strengthened, reflected by magnetic susceptibility, when the winter monsoon also became strong, which is different from the paleoclimatic pattern established in the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, the summer monsoon was nearly in phase with the climate changes inferred from the oxygen isotopic records of Greenland ice cores. It could be speculated that the variations of the sea ice cover in the high latitudes of the North Hemisphere affected the high pressure of Asian continent and the changes of the winter monsoon inland. On the other hand, the sea ice cover variations might have indirectly caused the occurrence of ENSO events that has tightly been related to the summer monsoon in northwest margin of East Asian monsoon region.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41901355)National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFD1500702)。
文摘Climate change can affect wind erosion power and hence induce changes in wind erosion rates.In this study,the wind erosion climate factor(C-factor),proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,was used to assess the impact of changes in climate on wind erosion climatic erosivity.The Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect trends in the C-factor during the period of 1961–2017 in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China.Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the sensitivity of the C-factor to changes in key climate factors.Furthermore,a comparison of the contributions of different climate factors was carried out to understand their impact on changes in the C-factor.The results indicated that most of the surveyed region exhibited decreasing trends in wind speed at a confidence level of 90%,while maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends throughout the study area.As a consequence of decreasing wind speed,the annual C-factor exhibited significant decreasing trends,with a mean slope of–0.58/yr.Seasonal analysis revealed that in most regions,the changes in the C-factor had significant decreasing trends in spring,winter,and autumn,while in more than two-thirds of the study area,no significant change trends in the C-factor were detected in summer at a confidence level of 90%.Sensitivity analysis showed that the C-factor was most sensitive to wind speed,and that the sensitivity coefficients from July to September were much higher than those in other months.Contribution analysis revealed that,for most stations,wind speed(with greater values of sensitivity coefficients)was the dominant factor in the change of C-factor,while for some stations,the minimum temperature made the most contribution to the C-factor’s change due to its dramatic changes during the study period.Although the minimum temperature sensitivity coefficient was the lowest of all the sensitivity coefficients,it is urgent to evaluate the expected impact of minimum temperature due to its possible changes in the future.
基金financially supported by the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities or "111 Project" of China (B08037)
文摘Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.
