Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers,which cover about 6.00%of the national territory;their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security.However,glacier monito...Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers,which cover about 6.00%of the national territory;their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security.However,glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991,creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers.Based on glacier inventory data,in situ measurements,and published literature,this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation,literature collation and comparative analysis,and the application of Geographic Information System(GIS)spatial analysis techniques.As of 2023,Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers,encompassing an area of 7624.48(±305.58)km2.Small glaciers dominate in number,whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area.Over the past two decades,the glacier count has decreased by 2014,and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km2,corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%.Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10%to 22.28%.Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a;only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance.Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat,consistent with regional trends.In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan,focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring,enhance public awareness of glacier preservation,and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism.These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.展开更多
In the context of the global energy low-carbon transition,phase change energy storage technology becomes a key technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy.Oriented phase change composites(OCPCMs)r...In the context of the global energy low-carbon transition,phase change energy storage technology becomes a key technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy.Oriented phase change composites(OCPCMs)receive widespread attention in practical energy storage applications due to their unique oriented thermally conductive structure,which achieves significant thermal conductivity enhancement in specific directions while retaining the high energy storage capacity of the phase change components.This review systematically summarizes the overall analysis of OCPCMs from synthesis and preparation to application scenarios in recent years.Herein,we introduce the analysis of the heat transfer mechanism of the materials and explore the advantages of the oriented structure in OCPCMs in the heat transfer behavior from a bionic perspective.We then focus on summarizing and generalizing the methods for preparing OCPCMs,giving suggestions for suitable methods according to different scenarios.Besides,we discuss the application of finite element simulation methods to the monitoring of the thermal management behavior of OCPCMs,and look into the potential future application areas of such materials.Finally,it is hoped that this review will provide guidance for the academic community in developing high-performance OCPCMs.展开更多
We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range cont...Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.展开更多
BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery...BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery speed and quality of life.Effective prevention of anxiety and depression in elderly patients has become an urgent problem.AIM To investigate the trajectory of anxiety and depression levels in elderly patients after LIF,and the influencing factors.METHODS Random sampling was used to select 239 elderly patients who underwent LIF from January 2020 to December 2024 in Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital.General information and surgery-related indices were recorded,and participants completed measures of psychological status,lumbar spine dysfunction,and quality of life.A latent class growth model was used to analyze the post-LIF trajectory of anxiety and depression levels,and unordered multi-categorical logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors.RESULTS Three trajectories of change in anxiety level were identified:Increasing anxiety(n=26,10.88%),decreasing anxiety(n=27,11.30%),and stable anxiety(n=186,77.82%).Likewise,three trajectories of change in depression level were identified:Increasing depression(n=30,12.55%),decreasing depression(n=26,10.88%),and stable depression(n=183,76.57%).Regression analysis showed that having no partner,female sex,elevated Oswestry dysfunction index(ODI)scores,and reduced 36-Item Short Form Health Survey scores all contributed to increased anxiety levels,whereas female sex,postoperative opioid use,and elevated ODI scores all contributed to increased depression levels.CONCLUSION During clinical observation,combining factors to predict anxiety and depression in post-LIF elderly patients enables timely intervention,quickens recovery,and enhances quality of life.展开更多
Accurate and efficient detection of building changes in remote sensing imagery is crucial for urban planning,disaster emergency response,and resource management.However,existing methods face challenges such as spectra...Accurate and efficient detection of building changes in remote sensing imagery is crucial for urban planning,disaster emergency response,and resource management.However,existing methods face challenges such as spectral similarity between buildings and backgrounds,sensor variations,and insufficient computational efficiency.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a novel Multi-scale Efficient Wavelet-based Change Detection Network(MewCDNet),which integrates the advantages of Convolutional Neural Networks and Transformers,balances computational costs,and achieves high-performance building change detection.The network employs EfficientNet-B4 as the backbone for hierarchical feature extraction,integrates multi-level feature maps through a multi-scale fusion strategy,and incorporates two key modules:Cross-temporal Difference Detection(CTDD)and Cross-scale Wavelet Refinement(CSWR).CTDD adopts a dual-branch architecture that combines pixel-wise differencing with semanticaware Euclidean distance weighting to enhance the distinction between true changes and background noise.CSWR integrates Haar-based Discrete Wavelet Transform with multi-head cross-attention mechanisms,enabling cross-scale feature fusion while significantly improving edge localization and suppressing spurious changes.Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate MewCDNet’s superiority over comparison methods:achieving F1 scores of 91.54%on LEVIR,93.70%on WHUCD,and 64.96%on S2Looking for building change detection.Furthermore,MewCDNet exhibits optimal performance on the multi-class⋅SYSU dataset(F1:82.71%),highlighting its exceptional generalization capability.展开更多
Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study...Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.展开更多
This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis...This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.展开更多
Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard...Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard types,ice-water phase change,and enhanced mobility of the mass flow.Scientifically simulating these physical phenomena proves challenging.This study introduces GMFA(glacier mass flow analysis),an integrated numerical model that advances the field by:(1)proposing depth-averaged fluctuation energy and internal energy equations,(2)incorporating the ice-water phase change and the entrainment-deposition process,and(3)capturing their effects on mass flow runout characteristics.The model employs the finite volume method to solve the multi-physics coupled governing equations,enabling efficient large-scale simulations.The model is verified through three numerical tests covering flow dynamics,temperature evolution,and thermo-hydro-mechanical runout processes.The model is applied to analyze a hazard chain that occurred on 10 September 2020 on the Tibetan Plateau.The multi-scenario simulation results indicate an entrained mass volume of(4.95±0.11)×10^(5)m^(3),and a ratio of entrained mass volume to source material volume of 0.44.The solid concentration decreases from 0.6-0.7 to 0.1-0.15 with increasing runout distance,indicating a transition from avalanche to debris flood.The internal energy rises by(3-4)×10^(3)kJ/m^(3),driving rapid ice melting from 0.1 to 0.2 to near-zero concentration.The model effectively quantifies volume amplification,ice-water phase changes,and multi-hazard transformations.This model pushes the geoscience frontier,extending computational capability from single-to multi-hazard simulations and providing a powerful tool for analyzing glacier cascading hazards.展开更多
As a major source of freshwater in Central Asia,Tajikistan is endowed with abundant glaciers and water resources.However,the country faces multiple challenges,including accelerated glacier retreat,complex inter-govern...As a major source of freshwater in Central Asia,Tajikistan is endowed with abundant glaciers and water resources.However,the country faces multiple challenges,including accelerated glacier retreat,complex inter-government water resource management,and inefficient water use.Existing research has predominantly focused on individual hydrological processes,such as glacier retreat,snow cover change,or transboundary water issues,but it has yet to fully capture the overall complexity of water system.Tajikistan’s water system functions as an integrated whole from mountain runoff to downstream supply,but a comprehensive study of its water resource has yet to be conducted.To address this research gap,this study systematically examined the status,challenges,and sustainable management strategies of Tajikistan’s water resources based on a literature review,remote sensing data analysis,and case studies.Despite Tajikistan’s relative abundance of water resources,global warming is accelerating glacier melting and altering the hydrological cycles,which have resulted in unstable runoff patterns and heightened risks of extreme events.In Tajikistan,outdated infrastructure and poor management are primary causes of low water-use efficiency in the agricultural sector,which accounts for 85.00%of the total water withdrawals.At the governance level,Tajikistan faces challenges in balancing the water-energy-food nexus and transboundary water resource issues.To address these issues,this study proposes core paths for Tajikistan to achieve sustainable water resource management,such as accelerating technological innovation,promoting water-saving agricultural technologies,improving water resource utilization efficiency,and establishing a community participation-based comprehensive management framework.Additionally,strengthening cross-border cooperation and improving real-time monitoring systems have been identified as critical steps to advance sustainable water resource utilization and evidence-based decision-making in Tajikistan and across Central Asia.展开更多
Knee osteoarthritis(KOA)is a chronic degenerative disease.Monosodium iodoac-etate(MIA)induction is the most commonly used therapeutic effect evaluation and mechanism of action research model;we observed a lack of stan...Knee osteoarthritis(KOA)is a chronic degenerative disease.Monosodium iodoac-etate(MIA)induction is the most commonly used therapeutic effect evaluation and mechanism of action research model;we observed a lack of standardization and uni-formity in current model building methods,which led us to conduct this study.Background:The aim was to investigate the time-and dose-related changes in the behavioral and pathological characteristics in the MIA-induced KOA model rat.Methods:MIA(40,50,and 60 mg/mL)was injected into the left joint of male Sprague-Dawley rats.After 2 weeks,the changes in the KOA rat model were observed by be-havioral evaluation,imaging-level evaluation,and histological-level evaluation.The changes were also compared after 40-mg/mL MIA injection for 2 and 6 weeks.Results:MIA-induced bone surface defects,osteophyte hyperplasia around the artic-ular rim,increased subchondral bone density,thinning of the sparse trabecular bone,structural disorder,and local clustering were observed.The degree of injury gradually increased with the increase in MIA concentration.After 6 weeks,subchondral bone density and sparse trabecular bone increased in the KOA model.Conclusions:The severity of the model also increased significantly with the changes in dose and time.In dose-dependent experiments,this study revealed that 40 mg/mL was the optimal dose to induce significant pathological changes without causing undue discomfort or death in animals.This dose may induce pathological changes stably and is suitable for long-term observation.展开更多
This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The re...This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy,wind energy,hydropower energy,as well as biomass and bioenergy,positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment.The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,improve air quality,enhance energy security,and support rural development.Case studies from Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits.However,the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers,including outdated infrastructure,fragmented regulatory frameworks,limited investment,and shortages of technical expertise.Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform,stronger regional cooperation,and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors.Modernizing grids,deploying storage systems,and investing in education,research,and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector.Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals,enhance environmental resilience,and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation,investment,and regional collaboration.展开更多
Previous modeling studies have made significant contributions to understanding the climatic effects of historical land use and land cover change(LULCC).However,the absence of transient land cover simulations may lead ...Previous modeling studies have made significant contributions to understanding the climatic effects of historical land use and land cover change(LULCC).However,the absence of transient land cover simulations may lead to uncertainties or inaccuracies in assessing their impacts.Further investigation of differences between fixed and transient LULCC simulations is needed.Here,we employ the Community Earth System Model(CESM)to analyze contrasting responses of mean and extreme near-surface air temperature to historical land cover change.Our results show that forest cover in Europe generally follows a linear upward trend,while East Asia experiences deforestation processes during the historical period.It is found that temperature changes do not exhibit similar seasonal variation and have regional dependence,with Europe showing more pronounced seasonal variability.It is also demonstrated that using fixed land cover simulations exaggerates the temperature responses,leading to an overestimation of temperatures.In Europe,the overestimation of mean and extreme near-surface air temperature is approximately 0.2℃ and 0.3℃,respectively.However,the overestimation is about 0.1℃ in East Asia.Besides,we further disentangle the local and nonlocal effects in the temperature changes and show that nonlocal atmospheric feedbacks dominate the temperature responses in Europe,while local and nonlocal effects exhibit similar temperature variations in East Asia.Further efforts to explore the nonlocal effects of realistic land cover change could help enhance our understanding of climatic effects of land cover change at midlatitudes.展开更多
Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diver...Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.展开更多
The Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are among the global shelf seas susceptible to typhoons every year.Using observations and high-resolution numerical simulations,the current study investigates the dramatic changes in tempe...The Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are among the global shelf seas susceptible to typhoons every year.Using observations and high-resolution numerical simulations,the current study investigates the dramatic changes in temperature and ocean heat content(OHC)of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea caused by Super Typhoon Maysak in early September 2020,which is representative of northward/northeastward-bypassing typhoons with centers just to the east of the study area.Temperature shows spatially coherent cooling in the upper mixed layer but warming in the subsurface layer in the majority of the offshore waters,due to wind-enhanced vertical mixing.In lower layers from the thermocline to sea bottom,temperature experiences significant warming in northeastern coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula and in regions just off the Subei Shoal,but significant cooling in western coastal waters of the Korean Peninsula and southern coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula.Significant temperature warming/cooling in lower layers is caused by coastal downwelling/upwelling.The total OHC of the study area decreases rapidly during Typhoon Maysak(2020)’s passage,which is generated comparably by latent heat loss at the sea surface and southward heat advection out of the study area at the southern boundary.Reduced shortwave radiation contributes positively but secondarily to the decreasing OHC during the first day.A numerical experiment suggests that Typhoon Maysak(2020)-induced OHC decline could have greatly affected the regional climate evolution in the following seasons.More studies are needed to fully understand the impacts of typhoons on regional climate changes in shelf seas at different time scales.展开更多
The volume change behavior of natural gas hydrate-bearing sediment is essential as it influences settlement,strength,and stiffness,which directly affect the stability of hydrate reservoirs during hydrate extraction or...The volume change behavior of natural gas hydrate-bearing sediment is essential as it influences settlement,strength,and stiffness,which directly affect the stability of hydrate reservoirs during hydrate extraction or in response to environmental changes.The volume change is influenced not only by stress but also by the formation and dissociation of hydrates.This study adopted a customized apparatus for one-dimensional compression tests,allowing independent control of gas pressure and effective stress.Tests were conducted on samples with different hydrate saturations along various temperature-gas pressure-effective stress paths,yielding some conclusions related to compressibility and creep.An unusual phenomenon was observed under low-stress conditions:hydrate formation led to shrinkage rather than expansion.Three potential mechanisms behind this occurrence were discussed.As hydrate saturation increases,the yield stress rises while the compression and swelling indexes remain minimally affected.After hydrate dissociation,the compression curve of hydrate-bearing sediment drops to that of hydrate-free sediment.Once hydrate is formed,the compression curve of hydrate-free sediment gradually approaches that of hydrate-bearing sediment during the subsequent loading.Under low-stress conditions,the creep of both hydrate-free and hydrate-bearing sediments is very weak.However,when stress increases,significantly beyond the yield stress,the creep of both sediments increases significantly,with hydrate-bearing sediment exhibiting much greater creep than hydrate-free sediment.展开更多
The Guangdong,Jiangxi and Fujian(GJF)provinces,located in the subtropical region of southeastern China,is one of the national key regions for soil erosion control and ecological restoration.This region is characterize...The Guangdong,Jiangxi and Fujian(GJF)provinces,located in the subtropical region of southeastern China,is one of the national key regions for soil erosion control and ecological restoration.This region is characterized by extensive red soil development and high rainfall erosivity,making it a representative landscape for exploring the interactions between land use change(LUC)and ecosystem services(ES).Despite the recognized importance of ES in hilly regions,comprehensive assessing the impacts of LUC on ES remain limited.This study investigates five key ES:water yield,soil conservation,carbon conservation,food supply,and habitat quality in GJF region from 2000 to 2020.By applying the InVEST model and the Geodetector method,we assessed the trade-offs,synergies,and transitions among ES,identified the natural and social drivers of ES dynamics,and quantified the contribution of LUC to ES changes using the ecosystem service contribution index.The results showed that cropland and woodland were the dominant land use types.Ecological restoration efforts positively influenced ES,with synergies intensifying and trade-offs diminishing over time.Land use conversions,particularly among woodland,grassland,and cropland,exerted significant impacts on ES.In particular,the conversion of woodland to other land uses had markedly negative effects on soil conservation,carbon conservation,and habitat quality.Forest cover was identified as a major driver of ES dynamics.These findings highlight the importance of maintaining and expanding forest and grassland cover,strengthening red soil conservation,and optimizing land use structure to achieve coordinated ecological protection and socioeconomic development in the subtropical hilly regions of southern China.展开更多
Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analys...Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.展开更多
Changes in the soil environment induced by major global changes in climate are affecting carbon emissions in cold-temperate coniferous forests.A randomized block experiment simulating warming,rainfall increase and nit...Changes in the soil environment induced by major global changes in climate are affecting carbon emissions in cold-temperate coniferous forests.A randomized block experiment simulating warming,rainfall increase and nitrogen addition in a Larix gmelinii forest was carried out to study the effects on soil carbon,nitrogen,and CO_(2)flux during the thawing,growing,and freezing periods.Our study found that warming(0-2.0℃)increased soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(STN),dissolved organic carbon(DOC)and dissolved organic nitrogen(DON),and microbial biomass carbon(MBC)and microbial biomass nitrogen(MBN).Warming played a direct role in regulating soil CO_(2)emissions,stimulated microbial and plant root respiration and soil CO_(2)flux rapidly increased.Rainfall increase initially increased soil carbon and nitrogen,but a 30%increase in mean annual rainfall caused losses of SOC,STN,DOC,and DON,while MBC and MBN accumulated.Soil CO_(2)emissions were regulated by MBC after an increase in rainfall,excess moisture inhibited microbial activity,and soil CO_(2)flux showed a trend of R2(20%rainfall increase)>R1(10%rainfall increase)>CK(control)>R3(30%rainfall increase).The addition of nitrogen increased SOC,STN,DOC,DON,MBC and MBN.Soil CO_(2)flux progressively decreased with nitrogen inputs(2.5,5.0 and 10.0 g m^(-2)a^(-1)),as more N intensified plant-microbe competition.Nitrogen addition indirectly regulated soil CO_(2)emissions by altering SOC and STN,with MBC and MBN acting as secondary regulators.The results highlight the role of cold-temperate coniferous forest soils in predicting carbon-climate feedback in high-latitude forest permafrost regions.展开更多
The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Da...The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Plan“Inter-governmental International Science&Technology Innovation Cooperation”Key Specialized Program,China(2025YFE0102800)the Program of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CSFSE-ZZ-2403).
文摘Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers,which cover about 6.00%of the national territory;their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security.However,glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991,creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers.Based on glacier inventory data,in situ measurements,and published literature,this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation,literature collation and comparative analysis,and the application of Geographic Information System(GIS)spatial analysis techniques.As of 2023,Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers,encompassing an area of 7624.48(±305.58)km2.Small glaciers dominate in number,whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area.Over the past two decades,the glacier count has decreased by 2014,and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km2,corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%.Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10%to 22.28%.Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a;only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance.Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat,consistent with regional trends.In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan,focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring,enhance public awareness of glacier preservation,and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism.These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.
基金financially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.FRF-KST-25-001)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.L253029)。
文摘In the context of the global energy low-carbon transition,phase change energy storage technology becomes a key technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy.Oriented phase change composites(OCPCMs)receive widespread attention in practical energy storage applications due to their unique oriented thermally conductive structure,which achieves significant thermal conductivity enhancement in specific directions while retaining the high energy storage capacity of the phase change components.This review systematically summarizes the overall analysis of OCPCMs from synthesis and preparation to application scenarios in recent years.Herein,we introduce the analysis of the heat transfer mechanism of the materials and explore the advantages of the oriented structure in OCPCMs in the heat transfer behavior from a bionic perspective.We then focus on summarizing and generalizing the methods for preparing OCPCMs,giving suggestions for suitable methods according to different scenarios.Besides,we discuss the application of finite element simulation methods to the monitoring of the thermal management behavior of OCPCMs,and look into the potential future application areas of such materials.Finally,it is hoped that this review will provide guidance for the academic community in developing high-performance OCPCMs.
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
基金supported by the JOINT CAS-MPG Research Project(Grant No.HZXM20225001MI)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.W2412056,42271116 and 32100373)the China Biodiversity Observation Networks(Sino BON)。
文摘Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Projects of the Health System in Pingshan District,No.2023122.
文摘BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery speed and quality of life.Effective prevention of anxiety and depression in elderly patients has become an urgent problem.AIM To investigate the trajectory of anxiety and depression levels in elderly patients after LIF,and the influencing factors.METHODS Random sampling was used to select 239 elderly patients who underwent LIF from January 2020 to December 2024 in Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital.General information and surgery-related indices were recorded,and participants completed measures of psychological status,lumbar spine dysfunction,and quality of life.A latent class growth model was used to analyze the post-LIF trajectory of anxiety and depression levels,and unordered multi-categorical logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors.RESULTS Three trajectories of change in anxiety level were identified:Increasing anxiety(n=26,10.88%),decreasing anxiety(n=27,11.30%),and stable anxiety(n=186,77.82%).Likewise,three trajectories of change in depression level were identified:Increasing depression(n=30,12.55%),decreasing depression(n=26,10.88%),and stable depression(n=183,76.57%).Regression analysis showed that having no partner,female sex,elevated Oswestry dysfunction index(ODI)scores,and reduced 36-Item Short Form Health Survey scores all contributed to increased anxiety levels,whereas female sex,postoperative opioid use,and elevated ODI scores all contributed to increased depression levels.CONCLUSION During clinical observation,combining factors to predict anxiety and depression in post-LIF elderly patients enables timely intervention,quickens recovery,and enhances quality of life.
基金supported by the Henan Province Key R&D Project under Grant 241111210400the Henan Provincial Science and Technology Research Project under Grants 252102211047,252102211062,252102211055 and 232102210069+2 种基金the Jiangsu Provincial Scheme Double Initiative Plan JSS-CBS20230474,the XJTLU RDF-21-02-008the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Zhengzhou University of Light Industry under Grant 23XNKJTD0205the Higher Education Teaching Reform Research and Practice Project of Henan Province under Grant 2024SJGLX0126。
文摘Accurate and efficient detection of building changes in remote sensing imagery is crucial for urban planning,disaster emergency response,and resource management.However,existing methods face challenges such as spectral similarity between buildings and backgrounds,sensor variations,and insufficient computational efficiency.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a novel Multi-scale Efficient Wavelet-based Change Detection Network(MewCDNet),which integrates the advantages of Convolutional Neural Networks and Transformers,balances computational costs,and achieves high-performance building change detection.The network employs EfficientNet-B4 as the backbone for hierarchical feature extraction,integrates multi-level feature maps through a multi-scale fusion strategy,and incorporates two key modules:Cross-temporal Difference Detection(CTDD)and Cross-scale Wavelet Refinement(CSWR).CTDD adopts a dual-branch architecture that combines pixel-wise differencing with semanticaware Euclidean distance weighting to enhance the distinction between true changes and background noise.CSWR integrates Haar-based Discrete Wavelet Transform with multi-head cross-attention mechanisms,enabling cross-scale feature fusion while significantly improving edge localization and suppressing spurious changes.Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate MewCDNet’s superiority over comparison methods:achieving F1 scores of 91.54%on LEVIR,93.70%on WHUCD,and 64.96%on S2Looking for building change detection.Furthermore,MewCDNet exhibits optimal performance on the multi-class⋅SYSU dataset(F1:82.71%),highlighting its exceptional generalization capability.
基金the University of Milan for funding the“ProForesta”project through the 2020 Research Support Planthe“Ente Parco Nazionale dell'Appennino Tosco-Emiliano”for having financed the project“First urgent measures to promote the adaptation of the silver fir forests of the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park to the effects of climate change”。
文摘Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.
基金The National University of Mongolia,No.P2024-4814The Mongolian Science and Technology Foundation,No.CHN-2022/274The‘Chey Institute for Advanced Studies’International Scholar Exchange Fellowship for the Academic Year of 2025-2026。
文摘This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.
基金supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U20A20112)the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR Government,China(Grant Nos.T22-606/23-R and 16206923).
文摘Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard types,ice-water phase change,and enhanced mobility of the mass flow.Scientifically simulating these physical phenomena proves challenging.This study introduces GMFA(glacier mass flow analysis),an integrated numerical model that advances the field by:(1)proposing depth-averaged fluctuation energy and internal energy equations,(2)incorporating the ice-water phase change and the entrainment-deposition process,and(3)capturing their effects on mass flow runout characteristics.The model employs the finite volume method to solve the multi-physics coupled governing equations,enabling efficient large-scale simulations.The model is verified through three numerical tests covering flow dynamics,temperature evolution,and thermo-hydro-mechanical runout processes.The model is applied to analyze a hazard chain that occurred on 10 September 2020 on the Tibetan Plateau.The multi-scenario simulation results indicate an entrained mass volume of(4.95±0.11)×10^(5)m^(3),and a ratio of entrained mass volume to source material volume of 0.44.The solid concentration decreases from 0.6-0.7 to 0.1-0.15 with increasing runout distance,indicating a transition from avalanche to debris flood.The internal energy rises by(3-4)×10^(3)kJ/m^(3),driving rapid ice melting from 0.1 to 0.2 to near-zero concentration.The model effectively quantifies volume amplification,ice-water phase changes,and multi-hazard transformations.This model pushes the geoscience frontier,extending computational capability from single-to multi-hazard simulations and providing a powerful tool for analyzing glacier cascading hazards.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘As a major source of freshwater in Central Asia,Tajikistan is endowed with abundant glaciers and water resources.However,the country faces multiple challenges,including accelerated glacier retreat,complex inter-government water resource management,and inefficient water use.Existing research has predominantly focused on individual hydrological processes,such as glacier retreat,snow cover change,or transboundary water issues,but it has yet to fully capture the overall complexity of water system.Tajikistan’s water system functions as an integrated whole from mountain runoff to downstream supply,but a comprehensive study of its water resource has yet to be conducted.To address this research gap,this study systematically examined the status,challenges,and sustainable management strategies of Tajikistan’s water resources based on a literature review,remote sensing data analysis,and case studies.Despite Tajikistan’s relative abundance of water resources,global warming is accelerating glacier melting and altering the hydrological cycles,which have resulted in unstable runoff patterns and heightened risks of extreme events.In Tajikistan,outdated infrastructure and poor management are primary causes of low water-use efficiency in the agricultural sector,which accounts for 85.00%of the total water withdrawals.At the governance level,Tajikistan faces challenges in balancing the water-energy-food nexus and transboundary water resource issues.To address these issues,this study proposes core paths for Tajikistan to achieve sustainable water resource management,such as accelerating technological innovation,promoting water-saving agricultural technologies,improving water resource utilization efficiency,and establishing a community participation-based comprehensive management framework.Additionally,strengthening cross-border cooperation and improving real-time monitoring systems have been identified as critical steps to advance sustainable water resource utilization and evidence-based decision-making in Tajikistan and across Central Asia.
基金Construction Project of High-Level Traditional Chinese Medicine Key Discipline of National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Grant/Award Number:zyyzdxk-2023022Key Team of Scientific and Technological Innovation Talents of Shanxi Province with Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine for Preventing and Treating Rheumatological Diseases,Grant/Award Number:202204051002033+4 种基金Traditional Chinese Medicine+Stem Cell Innovation Project,Grant/Award Number:2024KJZY0062023 Shanxi Graduate Research Practice Project,Grant/Award Number:2023KY6762023 Graduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Project of Shanxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Grant/Award Number:2023CX023 and 2023CX027Science and Technology Innovation Project for University in Shanxi Province,Grant/Award Number:2022L358Key Laboratory of Rheumatological and Immunological Diseases Treated by Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine,Grant/Award Number:zyyyjs2024021。
文摘Knee osteoarthritis(KOA)is a chronic degenerative disease.Monosodium iodoac-etate(MIA)induction is the most commonly used therapeutic effect evaluation and mechanism of action research model;we observed a lack of standardization and uni-formity in current model building methods,which led us to conduct this study.Background:The aim was to investigate the time-and dose-related changes in the behavioral and pathological characteristics in the MIA-induced KOA model rat.Methods:MIA(40,50,and 60 mg/mL)was injected into the left joint of male Sprague-Dawley rats.After 2 weeks,the changes in the KOA rat model were observed by be-havioral evaluation,imaging-level evaluation,and histological-level evaluation.The changes were also compared after 40-mg/mL MIA injection for 2 and 6 weeks.Results:MIA-induced bone surface defects,osteophyte hyperplasia around the artic-ular rim,increased subchondral bone density,thinning of the sparse trabecular bone,structural disorder,and local clustering were observed.The degree of injury gradually increased with the increase in MIA concentration.After 6 weeks,subchondral bone density and sparse trabecular bone increased in the KOA model.Conclusions:The severity of the model also increased significantly with the changes in dose and time.In dose-dependent experiments,this study revealed that 40 mg/mL was the optimal dose to induce significant pathological changes without causing undue discomfort or death in animals.This dose may induce pathological changes stably and is suitable for long-term observation.
文摘This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy,wind energy,hydropower energy,as well as biomass and bioenergy,positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment.The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,improve air quality,enhance energy security,and support rural development.Case studies from Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits.However,the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers,including outdated infrastructure,fragmented regulatory frameworks,limited investment,and shortages of technical expertise.Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform,stronger regional cooperation,and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors.Modernizing grids,deploying storage systems,and investing in education,research,and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector.Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals,enhance environmental resilience,and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation,investment,and regional collaboration.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801601).
文摘Previous modeling studies have made significant contributions to understanding the climatic effects of historical land use and land cover change(LULCC).However,the absence of transient land cover simulations may lead to uncertainties or inaccuracies in assessing their impacts.Further investigation of differences between fixed and transient LULCC simulations is needed.Here,we employ the Community Earth System Model(CESM)to analyze contrasting responses of mean and extreme near-surface air temperature to historical land cover change.Our results show that forest cover in Europe generally follows a linear upward trend,while East Asia experiences deforestation processes during the historical period.It is found that temperature changes do not exhibit similar seasonal variation and have regional dependence,with Europe showing more pronounced seasonal variability.It is also demonstrated that using fixed land cover simulations exaggerates the temperature responses,leading to an overestimation of temperatures.In Europe,the overestimation of mean and extreme near-surface air temperature is approximately 0.2℃ and 0.3℃,respectively.However,the overestimation is about 0.1℃ in East Asia.Besides,we further disentangle the local and nonlocal effects in the temperature changes and show that nonlocal atmospheric feedbacks dominate the temperature responses in Europe,while local and nonlocal effects exhibit similar temperature variations in East Asia.Further efforts to explore the nonlocal effects of realistic land cover change could help enhance our understanding of climatic effects of land cover change at midlatitudes.
基金supported by the Laoshan Laboratory[grant number LSKJ202202403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42030410]+1 种基金additionally supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUISTJiangsu Innovation Research Group[grant number JSSCTD202346]。
文摘Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2022YFF0801400 and 2021YFF0704002)the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.ZR2024LQX002)the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42176016).
文摘The Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are among the global shelf seas susceptible to typhoons every year.Using observations and high-resolution numerical simulations,the current study investigates the dramatic changes in temperature and ocean heat content(OHC)of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea caused by Super Typhoon Maysak in early September 2020,which is representative of northward/northeastward-bypassing typhoons with centers just to the east of the study area.Temperature shows spatially coherent cooling in the upper mixed layer but warming in the subsurface layer in the majority of the offshore waters,due to wind-enhanced vertical mixing.In lower layers from the thermocline to sea bottom,temperature experiences significant warming in northeastern coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula and in regions just off the Subei Shoal,but significant cooling in western coastal waters of the Korean Peninsula and southern coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula.Significant temperature warming/cooling in lower layers is caused by coastal downwelling/upwelling.The total OHC of the study area decreases rapidly during Typhoon Maysak(2020)’s passage,which is generated comparably by latent heat loss at the sea surface and southward heat advection out of the study area at the southern boundary.Reduced shortwave radiation contributes positively but secondarily to the decreasing OHC during the first day.A numerical experiment suggests that Typhoon Maysak(2020)-induced OHC decline could have greatly affected the regional climate evolution in the following seasons.More studies are needed to fully understand the impacts of typhoons on regional climate changes in shelf seas at different time scales.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42171135)the Science and Technology Program of CNOOC Research Institute(Grant No.2023OTKK03)the“CUG Scholar”Scientific Research Funds at China University of Geosciences(Project No.2022098).
文摘The volume change behavior of natural gas hydrate-bearing sediment is essential as it influences settlement,strength,and stiffness,which directly affect the stability of hydrate reservoirs during hydrate extraction or in response to environmental changes.The volume change is influenced not only by stress but also by the formation and dissociation of hydrates.This study adopted a customized apparatus for one-dimensional compression tests,allowing independent control of gas pressure and effective stress.Tests were conducted on samples with different hydrate saturations along various temperature-gas pressure-effective stress paths,yielding some conclusions related to compressibility and creep.An unusual phenomenon was observed under low-stress conditions:hydrate formation led to shrinkage rather than expansion.Three potential mechanisms behind this occurrence were discussed.As hydrate saturation increases,the yield stress rises while the compression and swelling indexes remain minimally affected.After hydrate dissociation,the compression curve of hydrate-bearing sediment drops to that of hydrate-free sediment.Once hydrate is formed,the compression curve of hydrate-free sediment gradually approaches that of hydrate-bearing sediment during the subsequent loading.Under low-stress conditions,the creep of both hydrate-free and hydrate-bearing sediments is very weak.However,when stress increases,significantly beyond the yield stress,the creep of both sediments increases significantly,with hydrate-bearing sediment exhibiting much greater creep than hydrate-free sediment.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42377326 and 42201267)National Research-Development Support Plan Projects of China(Grant No.2017YFC05054)the Fujian Provincial Water Resources Department Science and Technology Project(MSK202308)。
文摘The Guangdong,Jiangxi and Fujian(GJF)provinces,located in the subtropical region of southeastern China,is one of the national key regions for soil erosion control and ecological restoration.This region is characterized by extensive red soil development and high rainfall erosivity,making it a representative landscape for exploring the interactions between land use change(LUC)and ecosystem services(ES).Despite the recognized importance of ES in hilly regions,comprehensive assessing the impacts of LUC on ES remain limited.This study investigates five key ES:water yield,soil conservation,carbon conservation,food supply,and habitat quality in GJF region from 2000 to 2020.By applying the InVEST model and the Geodetector method,we assessed the trade-offs,synergies,and transitions among ES,identified the natural and social drivers of ES dynamics,and quantified the contribution of LUC to ES changes using the ecosystem service contribution index.The results showed that cropland and woodland were the dominant land use types.Ecological restoration efforts positively influenced ES,with synergies intensifying and trade-offs diminishing over time.Land use conversions,particularly among woodland,grassland,and cropland,exerted significant impacts on ES.In particular,the conversion of woodland to other land uses had markedly negative effects on soil conservation,carbon conservation,and habitat quality.Forest cover was identified as a major driver of ES dynamics.These findings highlight the importance of maintaining and expanding forest and grassland cover,strengthening red soil conservation,and optimizing land use structure to achieve coordinated ecological protection and socioeconomic development in the subtropical hilly regions of southern China.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0720203)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805603).
文摘Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.
基金funded by the Science and Technology Programme of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(Grant No.:2023YFDZ0026 and 2024KYPT0003)the 2024 Postgraduate Research and Innovation Programme of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University。
文摘Changes in the soil environment induced by major global changes in climate are affecting carbon emissions in cold-temperate coniferous forests.A randomized block experiment simulating warming,rainfall increase and nitrogen addition in a Larix gmelinii forest was carried out to study the effects on soil carbon,nitrogen,and CO_(2)flux during the thawing,growing,and freezing periods.Our study found that warming(0-2.0℃)increased soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(STN),dissolved organic carbon(DOC)and dissolved organic nitrogen(DON),and microbial biomass carbon(MBC)and microbial biomass nitrogen(MBN).Warming played a direct role in regulating soil CO_(2)emissions,stimulated microbial and plant root respiration and soil CO_(2)flux rapidly increased.Rainfall increase initially increased soil carbon and nitrogen,but a 30%increase in mean annual rainfall caused losses of SOC,STN,DOC,and DON,while MBC and MBN accumulated.Soil CO_(2)emissions were regulated by MBC after an increase in rainfall,excess moisture inhibited microbial activity,and soil CO_(2)flux showed a trend of R2(20%rainfall increase)>R1(10%rainfall increase)>CK(control)>R3(30%rainfall increase).The addition of nitrogen increased SOC,STN,DOC,DON,MBC and MBN.Soil CO_(2)flux progressively decreased with nitrogen inputs(2.5,5.0 and 10.0 g m^(-2)a^(-1)),as more N intensified plant-microbe competition.Nitrogen addition indirectly regulated soil CO_(2)emissions by altering SOC and STN,with MBC and MBN acting as secondary regulators.The results highlight the role of cold-temperate coniferous forest soils in predicting carbon-climate feedback in high-latitude forest permafrost regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135).
文摘The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.
