We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establ...To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establishing the obligations of developed countries to take the lead in emission reduction and provide financial,technological,and capacity-building support to developing countries.Particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement,successive UN climate conferences have placed high emphasis on financial and technological matters,with financial arrangements demonstrating an increasingly specific trend in recent years.The Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021 urges developed country Parties to deliver on their commitment to the goal of providing USD 100 billion to developing country prties,while also urging developed country parties to at least double their provision of climate finance to developing country parties by 2025 compared to 2019 levels.展开更多
Based on recent advancements in shale oil exploration within the Ordos Basin,this study presents a comprehensive investigation of the paleoenvironment,lithofacies assemblages and distribution,depositional mechanisms,a...Based on recent advancements in shale oil exploration within the Ordos Basin,this study presents a comprehensive investigation of the paleoenvironment,lithofacies assemblages and distribution,depositional mechanisms,and reservoir characteristics of shale oil of fine-grained sediment deposition in continental freshwater lacustrine basins,with a focus on the Chang 7_(3) sub-member of Triassic Yanchang Formation.The research integrates a variety of exploration data,including field outcrops,drilling,logging,core samples,geochemical analyses,and flume simulation.The study indicates that:(1)The paleoenvironment of the Chang 7_(3) deposition is characterized by a warm and humid climate,frequent monsoon events,and a large water depth of freshwater lacustrine basin.The paleogeomorphology exhibits an asymmetrical pattern,with steep slopes in the southwest and gentle slopes in the northeast,which can be subdivided into microgeomorphological units,including depressions and ridges in lakebed,as well as ancient channels.(2)The Chang 7_(3) sub-member is characterized by a diverse array of fine-grained sediments,including very fine sandstone,siltstone,mudstone and tuff.These sediments are primarily distributed in thin interbedded and laminated arrangements vertically.The overall grain size of the sandstone predominantly falls below 62.5μm,with individual layer thicknesses of 0.05–0.64 m.The deposits contain intact plant fragments and display various sedimentary structure,such as wavy bedding,inverse-to-normal grading sequence,and climbing ripple bedding,which indicating a depositional origin associated with density flows.(3)Flume simulation experiments have successfully replicated the transport processes and sedimentary characteristics associated with density flows.The initial phase is characterized by a density-velocity differential,resulting in a thicker,coarser sediment layer at the flow front,while the upper layers are thinner and finer in grain size.During the mid-phase,sliding water effects cause the fluid front to rise and facilitate rapid forward transport.This process generates multiple“new fronts”,enabling the long-distance transport of fine-grained sandstones,such as siltstone and argillaceous siltstone,into the center of the lake basin.(4)A sedimentary model primarily controlled by hyperpynal flows was established for the southwestern part of the basin,highlighting that the frequent occurrence of flood events and the steep slope topography in this area are primary controlling factors for the development of hyperpynal flows.(5)Sandstone and mudstone in the Chang 7_(3) sub-member exhibit micro-and nano-scale pore-throat systems,shale oil is present in various lithologies,while the content of movable oil varies considerably,with sandstone exhibiting the highest content of movable oil.(6)The fine-grained sediment complexes formed by multiple episodes of sandstones and mudstones associated with density flow in the Chang 7_(3) formation exhibit characteristics of“overall oil-bearing with differential storage capacity”.The combination of mudstone with low total organic carbon content(TOC)and siltstone is identified as the most favorable exploration target at present.展开更多
South Florida’s natural forest ecosystems,including pine rocklands and hardwood hammocks,are threatened by land use change and urbanization,invasive species,and climate change.It is critical to understand the respons...South Florida’s natural forest ecosystems,including pine rocklands and hardwood hammocks,are threatened by land use change and urbanization,invasive species,and climate change.It is critical to understand the responses of these ecosystems to anthropogenic disturbances to conserve the remnants of the USA natural subtropical forests.Using dendrochronology,long-term growth patterns were characterized in three dominant native tree species:Bursera simaruba,Swietenia mahagoni,and Pinus elliottii.Core samples were collected from>30 individuals of each species in hardwood hammocks(B.simaruba and S.mahagoni)and pine rocklands(P.elliottii)to examine growth patterns.Relationships between annual tree growth rates and climatic variables were assessed to address three questions:(1)What are the climatic drivers of growth in these three South Florida tree species?(2)Are their growth rates stable or changing through time?and(3)Are tree growth rates affected by urbanization?Standardized growth rates of the three species have changed through time,with small young trees showing accelerated growth through time,whereas larger,older trees showed declining growth rates.S.mahagoni and B.simaruba grew faster in urbanized parks than in more natural parks,whereas P.elliottii grew slower in urban parks.There were positive correlations between tree growth and the current year’s fall precipitation and no discernable effects of the current year’s monthly temperatures on growth rates of any of the species.These results suggest that the foundational tree species of the southern USA endangered pine rocklands and hardwood hammocks may be vulnerable to ongoing changes in precipitation and temperature as well as other environmental effects associated with urbanization.展开更多
Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological dat...Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.展开更多
Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps ...Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps to formulate differential scientific carbon mitigation policies.In this regard,this study constructs an integrated model of SD-PLUS-InVEST to simulate LUCs and CS changes under multi-climate change-based scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)for three major urban agglomerations(3UAs)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Results demonstrate that land use demand in the 3UAs changes considerably in each scenario.Construction land in the 3UAs remains the most important growth category for the coming decade,but its increase varies in different scenarios.CS in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA)and Mid-Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(MYRUA)shows a similar downward trend under different scenarios,with scenario SSP245 decreasing the most,to 184,713.526 Tg and 384,459.729 Tg,respectively.CS in the Cheng-Yu(Chengdu-Chongqing)Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)exhibits the opposite upward trend,with scenario SSP126 increasing the most to 153,007.973 Tg.The major cause of CS loss remains the conversion of forest land to construction land in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.However,in the CYUA,the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the major driver of CS loss under scenario SSP126.In contrast,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land dominantly drives CS loss under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585.The conversion of water body to other land use types is the major cause of CS gain in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.At the same time,in the CYUA,the driver is the conversion of cultivated land to forest land.These findings demonstrate the significance of the low-carbon development in urban agglomerations at different development stages at home and abroad.展开更多
This study aims to construct a large-scale hydrological Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model based on temperature and precipitation at high altitudes,while elucidating the applicability of the model for hydrologic...This study aims to construct a large-scale hydrological Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model based on temperature and precipitation at high altitudes,while elucidating the applicability of the model for hydrological simulation and analyzing the factors affecting runoff volume.Runoff volume and runoff depth were simulated using the VIC model and its performance was evaluated.Meanwhile,the factors affecting runoff volume were analyzed using Spearman correlation.The following model sensitivity parameters were obtained based on the China Natural Runoff Grid Point Dataset(CNRD v1.0):The variable infiltration curve parameter was 0.3,the Dsmax fraction where non-linear baseflow begins was 0.02,the maximum baseflow velocity was 15 mm/d,the maximum soil moisture where non-linear baseflow occurred was 0.7,the second soil moisture layer thickness was 0.3,and the thickness of the third soil moisture layer was 1.5.The surface runoff values in the Nyang River basin were similar in the first and fourth quarters(1.05–2.27 mm and 2.38–4.77 mm,respectively),and the surface runoff values were similar in the second and third quarters when the surface runoff was greater(23.46–52.20 mm and 60.59–85.63 mm,respectively).Watershed area,temperature,and precipitation significantly influenced the amount of runoff from the Nyang River.The applicability of the model to the Nyang River basin was confirmed using two different rate models.In some areas,precipitation and temperature did not have a dominating influence on runoff.Although the VIC model has significant advantages in runoff simulation,it requires a wealth of meteorological,soil,and hydrological data that may be difficult to obtain in some areas.展开更多
Dear Editor,Post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD)is a chronic neuropsychiatric disorder triggered by severe traumatic events,characterized by persistent intrusive memories,emotional dysregulation,hyperarousal,and avoid...Dear Editor,Post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD)is a chronic neuropsychiatric disorder triggered by severe traumatic events,characterized by persistent intrusive memories,emotional dysregulation,hyperarousal,and avoidance behaviors[1,2].PTSD is associated with significant gene expression changes in key brain regions,including the ventral tegmental area(VTA),which may underlie dysregulation of dopaminergic signaling and stress-related behaviors[3].展开更多
Climate warming and humidification trends have significantly influenced vegetation growth patterns in Chinese semi-arid areas.Exploring vegetation dynamics is crucial for understanding regional ecosystem structure and...Climate warming and humidification trends have significantly influenced vegetation growth patterns in Chinese semi-arid areas.Exploring vegetation dynamics is crucial for understanding regional ecosystem structure and improving the efforts of ecosystem restoration.However,the applicability of various vegetation indices(VIs)in these arid areas remains uncertain.Evaluating the applicability of multiple VIs for vegetation monitoring can elucidate the variability of VIs performance at regional scale.Therefore,this study selected the Zuli River Basin(ZLRB),a typical loess hilly watershed in the semi-arid areas of China.Using Landsat data,we calculated the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI),and kernel NDVI(kNDVI)for the ZLRB from 1990 to 2020.We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of these VIs using trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,and quantified the contributions of climate change(considering time-lag effects)and human activities to VIs changes through wavelet and residual analyses.Results indicated that VIs generally exhibited an upward trend in the ZLRB,with significant improvements observed in 54.91% of the area for NDVI,31.69% for EVI,and 33.71% for kNDVI.Among them,NDVI outperformed EVI and kNDVI in capturing vegetation changes in the semi-arid area.VIs responded to precipitation with 1-month time lag and no time lag to temperature during growing season.Moreover,precipitation had a stronger positive correlation with VIs than temperature.Climate change was identified as the dominant driver of vegetation dynamics in the ZLRB,accounting for 93.12% of NDVI variation,while human activities contributed only 6.88%.Comparative analysis of VIs suggests that NDVI was more suitable for describing vegetation changes in the typical arid area of the ZLRB.Our findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate VIs for targeted ecological restoration and sustainable land management.展开更多
On September 5, 2022, an earthquake of magnitude M_(S)6.8 occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province.This earthquake occurred at the key part of the southeast-clockwise extrusion of material on the eastern margin of ...On September 5, 2022, an earthquake of magnitude M_(S)6.8 occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province.This earthquake occurred at the key part of the southeast-clockwise extrusion of material on the eastern margin of the Qinghai Plateau, the Y-shaped confluence of the Xianshuihe, Longmenshan and Anninghe fault zones. In this study, the three-dimensional dynamic crustal density changes in the earthquake area are obtained by the typical gravity change data from 2019 to 2022 before the earthquake and gravity inversion by growing bodies. The results indicate that gravity changes presented an obvious fourquadrant and gradient belt distribution in the Luding area before the earthquake. The threedimensional density horizontal slices show that small density changes occurred at the epicenter in the mid-to-upper crust between 2019.9-2020.9 and 2019.9-2021.9. At the same time, the surrounding areas exhibited a positive and negative quadrant distribution. These observations indicate that the source region was likely in a stable locked state, with locking-in shear forces oriented in the NW and NE directions. From 2021.9 to 2022.8, the epicentral region showed negative density changes, indicating that the source region was in the expansion stage, approaching a near-seismic state. The three-dimensional density vertical slices reveal a southeastward migration of positive and negative densities near the epicenter and on the western of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, indicating that the material is flowing out to the southeast. The observed local negative density changes at the epicenter along the Longmenshan Fault Zone are likely associated with the NE-oriented extensional stress shown by the seismic source mechanism. The above results can provide a basis for interpreting pre-earthquake gravity and density changes,thereby contributing to the advancement of earthquake precursor theory.展开更多
Understanding the complex relationship between vegetation change and both natural and anthropogenic factors is a subject of global importance.However,comprehensive explanations of vegetation cover trends across China...Understanding the complex relationship between vegetation change and both natural and anthropogenic factors is a subject of global importance.However,comprehensive explanations of vegetation cover trends across China’s different regions and the dynamic roles of their drivers remain limited.This study analyzed national and regional vegetation change trends from 2000 to 2020 and evaluated the evolving impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors.Results indicate that 44.14%of China’s land experienced significant increase(P<0.05)in vegetation coverage.The Northeast(A1),Southwest(A5),and South China(A8)regions showed extremely significant increases in vegetation cover,with over 65%of vegetation exhibiting extremely significant growth(P<0.01).In contrast,less than 25%of vegetation in Inner Mongolia(A2),Northwest(A3),and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(A4)subregions demonstrated an extremely significant increasing trend(P<0.01).Precipitation(q=0.766)and land use type(q=0.636)were the most influential natural and anthropogenic factors,respectively,with their interaction(q=0.838)dominating national vegetation patterns.On the west side of the Hu Line,vegetation dynamics were mainly limited by arid and semi-arid climates,with precipitation as the dominant factor,though land use measures have contributed to some vegetation improvement.Between 2000 and 2020,the influence of precipitation on vegetation cover increased in regions A3 and A4,with q-values rising by 26.73%and 101.13%,respectively.Additionally,soil type exerted a significant effect(P<0.001)on vegetation cover across all regions,being most pronounced in A2(q=0.692).On the east side of the Hu Line,vegetation growth benefited generally from warm and humid conditions,while local decline in urbanized areas was largely attributable to land use change and economic expansion.Concurrently anthropogenic factors such as land use and population density increasingly influenced vegetation dynamics in eastern urban areas of the Hu Line.Population density and GDP were the most influential factors affecting vegetation cover in region A8,with q-values of 0.443 and 0.380,respectively(P<0.001).Future efforts should maintain the benefits of large-scale ecological projects and harmonize the relationship between urban vegetation and anthropogenic influences.展开更多
There have been an increasing number of studies on climate change and population health over the past 20 years,with most focusing on health risk assessment,targeting different locations and populations with various di...There have been an increasing number of studies on climate change and population health over the past 20 years,with most focusing on health risk assessment,targeting different locations and populations with various diseases[1−2].While these studies have provided the necessary epidemiological evidence for health authorities in policymaking,it is time to develop and implement tailored health interventions to protect the health and well-being of communities,and particularly that of vulnerable groups.展开更多
Renewable energy,especially solar power,is vital for mitigating global warming,while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential(PVpot).This study analyzes historical(1985–2014)and future(2015–2100)clim...Renewable energy,especially solar power,is vital for mitigating global warming,while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential(PVpot).This study analyzes historical(1985–2014)and future(2015–2100)climate effects on PVpot,and quantifies contributions from changed radiation,temperature,and wind speed.Historically,global PVpot increased by 0.42‰,with notable rises in eastern China(+7.1‰)and southern Europe(+3.5‰).By the end of the century,increased radiation-induced PVpot(+1.27‰)offsets temperatureinduced PVpot loss(−0.54‰)under SSP1-2.6,yielding a net PVpot increase(+0.74‰).Under SSP2-4.5,the temperature-induced PVpot decline(−1.50‰)drives the final PVpot reduction(−1.15‰).Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,combined radiation-induced(−1.94‰and−1.99‰)and temperature-induced PVpot changes(−2.67‰and−3.41‰)result in significant PVpot declines(−4.57‰and−5.31‰).Regional analysis reveals that eastern China(+0.7‰to+8.6‰),southern Europe(+0.3‰to+2.5‰),and Northwest South America(+0.6‰to+2.1‰)retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios,which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover,suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes.In contrast,temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(−9.1‰to−4.3‰)and northern Africa(−9.3‰to−4.9‰)under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these historically advantageous regions will become less suitable for solar energy deployment.The findings underscore that climate changes driven by sustainable development pathways will generate more PVpot in the future for better global warming mitigation.展开更多
Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter ...Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter SSE, occurring in a similar area, lasted approximately 2 years with M_(w) ~7.2 and an average slip rate of ~91 mm/year. To test whether these SSEs triggered earthquakes near the slow slip area, we calculated the Coulomb stressing rate changes on receiver faults by using two fault geometry definitions: nodal planes of focal mechanism solutions of past earthquakes, and optimally oriented fault planes. Regions in the shallow slab(30–60 km) that experienced a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate due to slip by the SSEs showed an increase in seismicity rates during SSE periods. No correlation was found in the volumes that underwent a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate during the SSE within the crust and the intermediate slab. We modeled variations in seismicity rates by using a combination of the Coulomb stress transfer model and the framework of rate-and-state friction. Our model indicated that the SSEs increased the Coulomb stress changes on adjacent faults,thereby increasing the seismicity rates even though the ratio of the SSE stressing rate to the background stressing rate was small. Each long-term SSE in Alaska brought the megathrust updip of the SSE areas closer to failure by up to 0.1–0.15 MPa. The volumes of significant Coulomb stress changes caused by the Upper and Lower Cook Inlet SSEs did not overlap.展开更多
A robust ecological security network(ESN)is essential for ensuring regional ecological security,improving fragile ecological conditions,and promoting sustainable development.Climate change and land use/cover change(LU...A robust ecological security network(ESN)is essential for ensuring regional ecological security,improving fragile ecological conditions,and promoting sustainable development.Climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)influence the structure and connectivity of the ESN by impacting ecosystem services(ESs).Previous studies primarily focused on the overall effects of LUCC on ESN changes,but they largely overlooked the effects of detailed LUCC transitions.In this study,we evaluated changes in the structure and connectivity of the ESN in the Songnen Plain(SNP),Northeast China,over the past 30 yr(1990s-2020s)using circuit theory and graph theory.We further explored the effects of climate change,LUCC,and detailed LUCC transformations on ESN changes through factorial control experiments.Results revealed a 24.86%decrease in ecological sources and a 27.06%decrease in ecological corridors,accompanied by a decline in ESN connectivity from the 1990s to the 2010s.Conversely,from the 2010s to the 2020s,ecological sources increased by 14.71%and ecological corridors increased by 25.71%due to ecological projects such as returning farmland to wetlands,resulting in an overall increase in ESN connectivity.The changes in ESN structure were primarily attributed to LUCC effects,followed by climate change effects and their interactions.In contrast,the changes in connectivity were significantly affected by climate change,followed by interactive effects and LUCC.Through detailed examination of LUCC transformation effects,we further found that the changes in ESN structure were primarily attributed to wetland loss,followed by deforestation and urban expansion.Meanwhile,the changes in ESN connectivity were mainly due to the effects of wetland loss,urban expansion and deforestation.Notably,the adverse effects of wetland loss partly offset climate change benefits on ESN.Our study offers valuable insights for developing future land management policies and implementing ecological projects,aimed at maintaining a stable ESN and ensuring sustainable human development.展开更多
Rapid climate and cropland use changes in recent decades have posed major challenges to food security in China.Hainan Is-land is the only tropical island in China and is blessed with natural conditions for crop produc...Rapid climate and cropland use changes in recent decades have posed major challenges to food security in China.Hainan Is-land is the only tropical island in China and is blessed with natural conditions for crop production.This study first simulates the climate scenarios of Hainan Island for 2030,2040 and 2050 under the four Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs)based on the climate models in ScenarioMIP of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),and then simulates the land use scenarios of Hainan Island for 2030,2040 and 2050 based on the Cellular Automata(CA)-Markov model.Finally,based on the Global Agro-Ecological Zones(GAEZ)model,the rice potential yield in Hainan Island for 2030,2040 and 2050 are simulated,and the effects of future climate and cropland use changes on rice potential yields are investigated.The results show that:1)from 2020 to 2050,mean maximum temperature first decreases and then increases,while mean minimum temperature increase sharply followed by a leveling off under the four SSPs.Precipitation decreases and then increases under other three SSPs except SSP2-4.5.Net solar radiation increases continuously under SSP1-2.6,2-4.5,and 5-8.5,and has the lowest simulated values under SSP3-7.0.Mean wind speed increases continuously under SSP1-2.6,fluctuates more under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,and increases slowly and then decreases sharply under SSP3-7.0.Relative humidity basically decreases continuously under the four SSPs.2)Areas of paddy field are 302.49 thousand,302.41 thousand and 302.71 thou-sand ha for 2030,2040 and 2050,respectively,all less than that in 2020.Paddy field is mainly converted into built-up land and wood-land.As for the conversion of other land types to paddy field,woodland is the main source.3)Under the effects of future climate and cropland use changes,the mean potential productions in Hainan Island under the four SSPs increase 1.17 million,1.13 million and 1.11 million t,respectively,and the mean potential yields increase 3873.21,3766.71 and 3672.38 kg/ha,respectively for the three periods.The largest increases in mean rice potential production and mean potential yield are 1.21 million t and 4008.00 kg/ha,1.16 million t and 3846.65 kg/ha,as well as 1.13 million t and 3732.75 kg/ha,respectively under SSP 3-7.0,indicating that SSP3-7.0 is the most suitable scenario for rice growth.This study could provide scientific basis for crop planting planning and agricultural policy adjustment.展开更多
The Liaohe River Basin(LRB)in Northeast China,a critical agricultural and industrial zone,has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization,intensified land use changes,and clim...The Liaohe River Basin(LRB)in Northeast China,a critical agricultural and industrial zone,has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization,intensified land use changes,and climate variability.Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield and its driving factors is essential for sustainable water resource management in this ecologically sensitive region.This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of water yield in the LRB(dividing into six sub-basins from east to west:East Liaohe River Basin(ELRB),Taizi River Basin(TRB),Middle Liaohe River Basin(MLRB),West Liaohe River Basin(WLRB),Xinkai River Basin(XRB),and Wulijimuren River Basin(WRB))from 1993 to 2022,with a focus on the impacts of climate change and land use cover change(LUCC).Results revealed that the LRB had an average annual precipitation of 483.15 mm,with an average annual water yield of 247.54 mm,both showing significant upward trend over the 30-a period.Spatially,water yield demonstrated significant heterogeneity,with higher values in southeastern sub-basins and lower values in northwestern sub-basins.The TRB exhibited the highest water yield due to abundant precipitation and favorable topography,while the WRB recorded the lowest water yield owing to arid conditions and sparse vegetation.Precipitation played a significant role in shaping the annual fluctuations and total volume of water yield,with its variability exerting substantially greater impacts than actual evapotranspiration(AET)and LUCC.However,LUCC,particularly cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction,significantly reshaped the spatial distribution of water yield by modifying surface runoff and infiltration patterns.This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield in the LRB,emphasizing the synergistic effects of climate change and land use change,which are pivotal for optimizing water resource management and advancing regional ecological conservation.展开更多
Forest carbon sinks are crucial for mitigating urban climate change.Their effectiveness depends on the balance between gross carbon losses and gains.However,quantitative and continuous monitoring of forest change/dist...Forest carbon sinks are crucial for mitigating urban climate change.Their effectiveness depends on the balance between gross carbon losses and gains.However,quantitative and continuous monitoring of forest change/disturbance carbon fluxes is still insufficient.To address this gap,we integrated an improved spatial carbon bookkeeping(SBK)model with the continuous change detection and classification(CCDC)algorithm,long-term Landsat observations,and ground measurements to track carbon emissions,uptakes,and net changes from forest cover changes in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)of China from 2000 to 2020.The SBK model was refined by incorporating heterogeneous carbon response functions.Our results reveal that carbon emissions(-3.88 Tg C·year^(-1))were four times greater than carbon uptakes(0.93 Tg C·year^(-1))from forest cover changes in the YRD during 2000-2020,despite a net forest cover gain of 10.95×10^(4) ha.These findings indicate that the carbon effect per hectare of forest cover loss is approximately 4.5 times that of forest cover gain.The asymmetric carbon effect suggests that forest cover change may act as a carbon source even with net-zero or net-positive forest cover change.Furthermore,carbon uptakes from forest gains in the YRD during 2000-2020 could only offset 0.28% of energy-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019.Urban and agricultural expansions accounted for 37% and 10% of carbon emissions,respectively,while the Grain for Green Project contributed to 45% of carbon uptakes.Our findings underscore the necessity of understanding the asymmetric carbon effects of forest cover loss and gain to accurately assess the capacity of forest carbon sinks.展开更多
The lamina(combination)types,reservoir characteristics and shale oil occurrence states of organic-rich shale in the Triassic Yanchang Formation Chang 73 sub-member in the Ordos Basin were systematically investigated t...The lamina(combination)types,reservoir characteristics and shale oil occurrence states of organic-rich shale in the Triassic Yanchang Formation Chang 73 sub-member in the Ordos Basin were systematically investigated to reveal the main controlling factors of shale oil occurrence under different lamina combinations.The differential enrichment mechanisms and patterns of shale oil were discussed using the shale oil micro-migration characterization and evaluation methods from the perspectives of relay hydrocarbon supply,stepwise migration,and multi-stage differentiation.The results are obtained in five aspects.First,Chang 73 shale mainly develops five types of lamina combination,i.e.non-laminated shale,sandy laminated shale,tuffaceous laminated shale,mixed laminated shale,and organic-rich laminated shale.Second,shales with different lamina combinations are obviously different in the reservoir space.Specifically,shales with sandy laminae and tuffaceous laminae have a large number of intergranular pores,dissolution pores and hydrocarbon generation-induced fractures.The multi-scale pore and fracture system constitutes the main place for liquid hydrocarbon occurrence.Third,the occurrence and distribution of shale oil in shale with different lamina combinations are jointly controlled by organic matter abundance,reservoir property,thermal evolution degree,mineral composition and laminae scale.The micro-nano-scale pore-fracture networks within shales containing rigid laminae,particularly sandy and tuffaceous laminations,primarily contain free-state light hydrocarbon components.In contrast,adsorption-phase heavy hydrocarbon components predominantly occupy surfaces of organic matter assemblages,clay mineral matrices,and framework mineral particulates.Fourth,there is obvious shale oil micro-migration between shales with different lamina combinations in Chang 73.Generally,such micro-migration is stepwise in a sequence of organic-rich laminated shale→tuffaceous laminated shale→mixed laminated shale→sandy lamiated shale→non-laminated shale.Fifth,the relay hydrocarbon supply of organic matter under the control of the spatial superposition of shales with various laminae,the stepwise migration via multi-scale pore and fracture network,and the multi-differentiation in shales with different lamina combinations under the control of organic-inorganic interactions fundamentally decide the differences of shale oil components between shales with different lamina combinations.展开更多
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
文摘To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establishing the obligations of developed countries to take the lead in emission reduction and provide financial,technological,and capacity-building support to developing countries.Particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement,successive UN climate conferences have placed high emphasis on financial and technological matters,with financial arrangements demonstrating an increasingly specific trend in recent years.The Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021 urges developed country Parties to deliver on their commitment to the goal of providing USD 100 billion to developing country prties,while also urging developed country parties to at least double their provision of climate finance to developing country parties by 2025 compared to 2019 levels.
基金Supported by the CNPC Major Science and Technology Project(2021DJ1806).
文摘Based on recent advancements in shale oil exploration within the Ordos Basin,this study presents a comprehensive investigation of the paleoenvironment,lithofacies assemblages and distribution,depositional mechanisms,and reservoir characteristics of shale oil of fine-grained sediment deposition in continental freshwater lacustrine basins,with a focus on the Chang 7_(3) sub-member of Triassic Yanchang Formation.The research integrates a variety of exploration data,including field outcrops,drilling,logging,core samples,geochemical analyses,and flume simulation.The study indicates that:(1)The paleoenvironment of the Chang 7_(3) deposition is characterized by a warm and humid climate,frequent monsoon events,and a large water depth of freshwater lacustrine basin.The paleogeomorphology exhibits an asymmetrical pattern,with steep slopes in the southwest and gentle slopes in the northeast,which can be subdivided into microgeomorphological units,including depressions and ridges in lakebed,as well as ancient channels.(2)The Chang 7_(3) sub-member is characterized by a diverse array of fine-grained sediments,including very fine sandstone,siltstone,mudstone and tuff.These sediments are primarily distributed in thin interbedded and laminated arrangements vertically.The overall grain size of the sandstone predominantly falls below 62.5μm,with individual layer thicknesses of 0.05–0.64 m.The deposits contain intact plant fragments and display various sedimentary structure,such as wavy bedding,inverse-to-normal grading sequence,and climbing ripple bedding,which indicating a depositional origin associated with density flows.(3)Flume simulation experiments have successfully replicated the transport processes and sedimentary characteristics associated with density flows.The initial phase is characterized by a density-velocity differential,resulting in a thicker,coarser sediment layer at the flow front,while the upper layers are thinner and finer in grain size.During the mid-phase,sliding water effects cause the fluid front to rise and facilitate rapid forward transport.This process generates multiple“new fronts”,enabling the long-distance transport of fine-grained sandstones,such as siltstone and argillaceous siltstone,into the center of the lake basin.(4)A sedimentary model primarily controlled by hyperpynal flows was established for the southwestern part of the basin,highlighting that the frequent occurrence of flood events and the steep slope topography in this area are primary controlling factors for the development of hyperpynal flows.(5)Sandstone and mudstone in the Chang 7_(3) sub-member exhibit micro-and nano-scale pore-throat systems,shale oil is present in various lithologies,while the content of movable oil varies considerably,with sandstone exhibiting the highest content of movable oil.(6)The fine-grained sediment complexes formed by multiple episodes of sandstones and mudstones associated with density flow in the Chang 7_(3) formation exhibit characteristics of“overall oil-bearing with differential storage capacity”.The combination of mudstone with low total organic carbon content(TOC)and siltstone is identified as the most favorable exploration target at present.
基金supported by the Kushlan Fund from the University of Miami Department of Biology.
文摘South Florida’s natural forest ecosystems,including pine rocklands and hardwood hammocks,are threatened by land use change and urbanization,invasive species,and climate change.It is critical to understand the responses of these ecosystems to anthropogenic disturbances to conserve the remnants of the USA natural subtropical forests.Using dendrochronology,long-term growth patterns were characterized in three dominant native tree species:Bursera simaruba,Swietenia mahagoni,and Pinus elliottii.Core samples were collected from>30 individuals of each species in hardwood hammocks(B.simaruba and S.mahagoni)and pine rocklands(P.elliottii)to examine growth patterns.Relationships between annual tree growth rates and climatic variables were assessed to address three questions:(1)What are the climatic drivers of growth in these three South Florida tree species?(2)Are their growth rates stable or changing through time?and(3)Are tree growth rates affected by urbanization?Standardized growth rates of the three species have changed through time,with small young trees showing accelerated growth through time,whereas larger,older trees showed declining growth rates.S.mahagoni and B.simaruba grew faster in urbanized parks than in more natural parks,whereas P.elliottii grew slower in urban parks.There were positive correlations between tree growth and the current year’s fall precipitation and no discernable effects of the current year’s monthly temperatures on growth rates of any of the species.These results suggest that the foundational tree species of the southern USA endangered pine rocklands and hardwood hammocks may be vulnerable to ongoing changes in precipitation and temperature as well as other environmental effects associated with urbanization.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0407303)“Young Talents”Project of Northeast Agricultural University(No.20QC13)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.E2017009)。
文摘Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.
基金Key Project of National Social Science Fund,No.23AZD032National Natural Science Foundation of China No.42371258Program of China Scholarship Council No.202306850036。
文摘Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps to formulate differential scientific carbon mitigation policies.In this regard,this study constructs an integrated model of SD-PLUS-InVEST to simulate LUCs and CS changes under multi-climate change-based scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)for three major urban agglomerations(3UAs)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Results demonstrate that land use demand in the 3UAs changes considerably in each scenario.Construction land in the 3UAs remains the most important growth category for the coming decade,but its increase varies in different scenarios.CS in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA)and Mid-Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(MYRUA)shows a similar downward trend under different scenarios,with scenario SSP245 decreasing the most,to 184,713.526 Tg and 384,459.729 Tg,respectively.CS in the Cheng-Yu(Chengdu-Chongqing)Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)exhibits the opposite upward trend,with scenario SSP126 increasing the most to 153,007.973 Tg.The major cause of CS loss remains the conversion of forest land to construction land in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.However,in the CYUA,the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the major driver of CS loss under scenario SSP126.In contrast,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land dominantly drives CS loss under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585.The conversion of water body to other land use types is the major cause of CS gain in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.At the same time,in the CYUA,the driver is the conversion of cultivated land to forest land.These findings demonstrate the significance of the low-carbon development in urban agglomerations at different development stages at home and abroad.
基金supported by the Key R&D Project of Science and Technology Program of Tibet Autonomous Region(XZ202301ZY0006G)the Graduate High-level Talent Training Program of Xizang University(2022-GSP-B007)+1 种基金Nagqu City Science and Technology Program Key R&D Projects(NQKJ-2023-15)Central Financial Support for Local Universities to Construct Wetland Station in Mitika and Collaborative Innovation Center for Ecological Civilization of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau([2024]NO.01).
文摘This study aims to construct a large-scale hydrological Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model based on temperature and precipitation at high altitudes,while elucidating the applicability of the model for hydrological simulation and analyzing the factors affecting runoff volume.Runoff volume and runoff depth were simulated using the VIC model and its performance was evaluated.Meanwhile,the factors affecting runoff volume were analyzed using Spearman correlation.The following model sensitivity parameters were obtained based on the China Natural Runoff Grid Point Dataset(CNRD v1.0):The variable infiltration curve parameter was 0.3,the Dsmax fraction where non-linear baseflow begins was 0.02,the maximum baseflow velocity was 15 mm/d,the maximum soil moisture where non-linear baseflow occurred was 0.7,the second soil moisture layer thickness was 0.3,and the thickness of the third soil moisture layer was 1.5.The surface runoff values in the Nyang River basin were similar in the first and fourth quarters(1.05–2.27 mm and 2.38–4.77 mm,respectively),and the surface runoff values were similar in the second and third quarters when the surface runoff was greater(23.46–52.20 mm and 60.59–85.63 mm,respectively).Watershed area,temperature,and precipitation significantly influenced the amount of runoff from the Nyang River.The applicability of the model to the Nyang River basin was confirmed using two different rate models.In some areas,precipitation and temperature did not have a dominating influence on runoff.Although the VIC model has significant advantages in runoff simulation,it requires a wealth of meteorological,soil,and hydrological data that may be difficult to obtain in some areas.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81871062)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2024A1515012913)+1 种基金the Key Research Foundation of Guangdong Provincial Education Bureau(2023ZDZX2037)the Special Fund of Science and Technology Innovation Cultivation of Guangdong University Students(pdjh2024a238,pdjh2025ak133)。
文摘Dear Editor,Post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD)is a chronic neuropsychiatric disorder triggered by severe traumatic events,characterized by persistent intrusive memories,emotional dysregulation,hyperarousal,and avoidance behaviors[1,2].PTSD is associated with significant gene expression changes in key brain regions,including the ventral tegmental area(VTA),which may underlie dysregulation of dopaminergic signaling and stress-related behaviors[3].
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A2011).
文摘Climate warming and humidification trends have significantly influenced vegetation growth patterns in Chinese semi-arid areas.Exploring vegetation dynamics is crucial for understanding regional ecosystem structure and improving the efforts of ecosystem restoration.However,the applicability of various vegetation indices(VIs)in these arid areas remains uncertain.Evaluating the applicability of multiple VIs for vegetation monitoring can elucidate the variability of VIs performance at regional scale.Therefore,this study selected the Zuli River Basin(ZLRB),a typical loess hilly watershed in the semi-arid areas of China.Using Landsat data,we calculated the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI),and kernel NDVI(kNDVI)for the ZLRB from 1990 to 2020.We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of these VIs using trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,and quantified the contributions of climate change(considering time-lag effects)and human activities to VIs changes through wavelet and residual analyses.Results indicated that VIs generally exhibited an upward trend in the ZLRB,with significant improvements observed in 54.91% of the area for NDVI,31.69% for EVI,and 33.71% for kNDVI.Among them,NDVI outperformed EVI and kNDVI in capturing vegetation changes in the semi-arid area.VIs responded to precipitation with 1-month time lag and no time lag to temperature during growing season.Moreover,precipitation had a stronger positive correlation with VIs than temperature.Climate change was identified as the dominant driver of vegetation dynamics in the ZLRB,accounting for 93.12% of NDVI variation,while human activities contributed only 6.88%.Comparative analysis of VIs suggests that NDVI was more suitable for describing vegetation changes in the typical arid area of the ZLRB.Our findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate VIs for targeted ecological restoration and sustainable land management.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42374105,42204089,42174104)Scientific Research Fund of Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.IS202326341,IS202336350).
文摘On September 5, 2022, an earthquake of magnitude M_(S)6.8 occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province.This earthquake occurred at the key part of the southeast-clockwise extrusion of material on the eastern margin of the Qinghai Plateau, the Y-shaped confluence of the Xianshuihe, Longmenshan and Anninghe fault zones. In this study, the three-dimensional dynamic crustal density changes in the earthquake area are obtained by the typical gravity change data from 2019 to 2022 before the earthquake and gravity inversion by growing bodies. The results indicate that gravity changes presented an obvious fourquadrant and gradient belt distribution in the Luding area before the earthquake. The threedimensional density horizontal slices show that small density changes occurred at the epicenter in the mid-to-upper crust between 2019.9-2020.9 and 2019.9-2021.9. At the same time, the surrounding areas exhibited a positive and negative quadrant distribution. These observations indicate that the source region was likely in a stable locked state, with locking-in shear forces oriented in the NW and NE directions. From 2021.9 to 2022.8, the epicentral region showed negative density changes, indicating that the source region was in the expansion stage, approaching a near-seismic state. The three-dimensional density vertical slices reveal a southeastward migration of positive and negative densities near the epicenter and on the western of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, indicating that the material is flowing out to the southeast. The observed local negative density changes at the epicenter along the Longmenshan Fault Zone are likely associated with the NE-oriented extensional stress shown by the seismic source mechanism. The above results can provide a basis for interpreting pre-earthquake gravity and density changes,thereby contributing to the advancement of earthquake precursor theory.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32371863)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2572025AW39)。
文摘Understanding the complex relationship between vegetation change and both natural and anthropogenic factors is a subject of global importance.However,comprehensive explanations of vegetation cover trends across China’s different regions and the dynamic roles of their drivers remain limited.This study analyzed national and regional vegetation change trends from 2000 to 2020 and evaluated the evolving impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors.Results indicate that 44.14%of China’s land experienced significant increase(P<0.05)in vegetation coverage.The Northeast(A1),Southwest(A5),and South China(A8)regions showed extremely significant increases in vegetation cover,with over 65%of vegetation exhibiting extremely significant growth(P<0.01).In contrast,less than 25%of vegetation in Inner Mongolia(A2),Northwest(A3),and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(A4)subregions demonstrated an extremely significant increasing trend(P<0.01).Precipitation(q=0.766)and land use type(q=0.636)were the most influential natural and anthropogenic factors,respectively,with their interaction(q=0.838)dominating national vegetation patterns.On the west side of the Hu Line,vegetation dynamics were mainly limited by arid and semi-arid climates,with precipitation as the dominant factor,though land use measures have contributed to some vegetation improvement.Between 2000 and 2020,the influence of precipitation on vegetation cover increased in regions A3 and A4,with q-values rising by 26.73%and 101.13%,respectively.Additionally,soil type exerted a significant effect(P<0.001)on vegetation cover across all regions,being most pronounced in A2(q=0.692).On the east side of the Hu Line,vegetation growth benefited generally from warm and humid conditions,while local decline in urbanized areas was largely attributable to land use change and economic expansion.Concurrently anthropogenic factors such as land use and population density increasingly influenced vegetation dynamics in eastern urban areas of the Hu Line.Population density and GDP were the most influential factors affecting vegetation cover in region A8,with q-values of 0.443 and 0.380,respectively(P<0.001).Future efforts should maintain the benefits of large-scale ecological projects and harmonize the relationship between urban vegetation and anthropogenic influences.
文摘There have been an increasing number of studies on climate change and population health over the past 20 years,with most focusing on health risk assessment,targeting different locations and populations with various diseases[1−2].While these studies have provided the necessary epidemiological evidence for health authorities in policymaking,it is time to develop and implement tailored health interventions to protect the health and well-being of communities,and particularly that of vulnerable groups.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[grant number BK20220031]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42007195].
文摘Renewable energy,especially solar power,is vital for mitigating global warming,while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential(PVpot).This study analyzes historical(1985–2014)and future(2015–2100)climate effects on PVpot,and quantifies contributions from changed radiation,temperature,and wind speed.Historically,global PVpot increased by 0.42‰,with notable rises in eastern China(+7.1‰)and southern Europe(+3.5‰).By the end of the century,increased radiation-induced PVpot(+1.27‰)offsets temperatureinduced PVpot loss(−0.54‰)under SSP1-2.6,yielding a net PVpot increase(+0.74‰).Under SSP2-4.5,the temperature-induced PVpot decline(−1.50‰)drives the final PVpot reduction(−1.15‰).Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,combined radiation-induced(−1.94‰and−1.99‰)and temperature-induced PVpot changes(−2.67‰and−3.41‰)result in significant PVpot declines(−4.57‰and−5.31‰).Regional analysis reveals that eastern China(+0.7‰to+8.6‰),southern Europe(+0.3‰to+2.5‰),and Northwest South America(+0.6‰to+2.1‰)retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios,which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover,suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes.In contrast,temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(−9.1‰to−4.3‰)and northern Africa(−9.3‰to−4.9‰)under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these historically advantageous regions will become less suitable for solar energy deployment.The findings underscore that climate changes driven by sustainable development pathways will generate more PVpot in the future for better global warming mitigation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42104001)。
文摘Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter SSE, occurring in a similar area, lasted approximately 2 years with M_(w) ~7.2 and an average slip rate of ~91 mm/year. To test whether these SSEs triggered earthquakes near the slow slip area, we calculated the Coulomb stressing rate changes on receiver faults by using two fault geometry definitions: nodal planes of focal mechanism solutions of past earthquakes, and optimally oriented fault planes. Regions in the shallow slab(30–60 km) that experienced a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate due to slip by the SSEs showed an increase in seismicity rates during SSE periods. No correlation was found in the volumes that underwent a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate during the SSE within the crust and the intermediate slab. We modeled variations in seismicity rates by using a combination of the Coulomb stress transfer model and the framework of rate-and-state friction. Our model indicated that the SSEs increased the Coulomb stress changes on adjacent faults,thereby increasing the seismicity rates even though the ratio of the SSE stressing rate to the background stressing rate was small. Each long-term SSE in Alaska brought the megathrust updip of the SSE areas closer to failure by up to 0.1–0.15 MPa. The volumes of significant Coulomb stress changes caused by the Upper and Lower Cook Inlet SSEs did not overlap.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFF1300904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42271119,42371075,42471127)+1 种基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.2023238)Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Plan Project(No.20230203001SF)。
文摘A robust ecological security network(ESN)is essential for ensuring regional ecological security,improving fragile ecological conditions,and promoting sustainable development.Climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)influence the structure and connectivity of the ESN by impacting ecosystem services(ESs).Previous studies primarily focused on the overall effects of LUCC on ESN changes,but they largely overlooked the effects of detailed LUCC transitions.In this study,we evaluated changes in the structure and connectivity of the ESN in the Songnen Plain(SNP),Northeast China,over the past 30 yr(1990s-2020s)using circuit theory and graph theory.We further explored the effects of climate change,LUCC,and detailed LUCC transformations on ESN changes through factorial control experiments.Results revealed a 24.86%decrease in ecological sources and a 27.06%decrease in ecological corridors,accompanied by a decline in ESN connectivity from the 1990s to the 2010s.Conversely,from the 2010s to the 2020s,ecological sources increased by 14.71%and ecological corridors increased by 25.71%due to ecological projects such as returning farmland to wetlands,resulting in an overall increase in ESN connectivity.The changes in ESN structure were primarily attributed to LUCC effects,followed by climate change effects and their interactions.In contrast,the changes in connectivity were significantly affected by climate change,followed by interactive effects and LUCC.Through detailed examination of LUCC transformation effects,we further found that the changes in ESN structure were primarily attributed to wetland loss,followed by deforestation and urban expansion.Meanwhile,the changes in ESN connectivity were mainly due to the effects of wetland loss,urban expansion and deforestation.Notably,the adverse effects of wetland loss partly offset climate change benefits on ESN.Our study offers valuable insights for developing future land management policies and implementing ecological projects,aimed at maintaining a stable ESN and ensuring sustainable human development.
基金Under the auspices of Hainan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.321QN187,723RC466)Scientific Research Foundation of Hainan University(No.kyqd(sk)2135)Young Scholars Support Program of Hainan University(No.24QNFC-05)。
文摘Rapid climate and cropland use changes in recent decades have posed major challenges to food security in China.Hainan Is-land is the only tropical island in China and is blessed with natural conditions for crop production.This study first simulates the climate scenarios of Hainan Island for 2030,2040 and 2050 under the four Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs)based on the climate models in ScenarioMIP of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),and then simulates the land use scenarios of Hainan Island for 2030,2040 and 2050 based on the Cellular Automata(CA)-Markov model.Finally,based on the Global Agro-Ecological Zones(GAEZ)model,the rice potential yield in Hainan Island for 2030,2040 and 2050 are simulated,and the effects of future climate and cropland use changes on rice potential yields are investigated.The results show that:1)from 2020 to 2050,mean maximum temperature first decreases and then increases,while mean minimum temperature increase sharply followed by a leveling off under the four SSPs.Precipitation decreases and then increases under other three SSPs except SSP2-4.5.Net solar radiation increases continuously under SSP1-2.6,2-4.5,and 5-8.5,and has the lowest simulated values under SSP3-7.0.Mean wind speed increases continuously under SSP1-2.6,fluctuates more under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,and increases slowly and then decreases sharply under SSP3-7.0.Relative humidity basically decreases continuously under the four SSPs.2)Areas of paddy field are 302.49 thousand,302.41 thousand and 302.71 thou-sand ha for 2030,2040 and 2050,respectively,all less than that in 2020.Paddy field is mainly converted into built-up land and wood-land.As for the conversion of other land types to paddy field,woodland is the main source.3)Under the effects of future climate and cropland use changes,the mean potential productions in Hainan Island under the four SSPs increase 1.17 million,1.13 million and 1.11 million t,respectively,and the mean potential yields increase 3873.21,3766.71 and 3672.38 kg/ha,respectively for the three periods.The largest increases in mean rice potential production and mean potential yield are 1.21 million t and 4008.00 kg/ha,1.16 million t and 3846.65 kg/ha,as well as 1.13 million t and 3732.75 kg/ha,respectively under SSP 3-7.0,indicating that SSP3-7.0 is the most suitable scenario for rice growth.This study could provide scientific basis for crop planting planning and agricultural policy adjustment.
基金funded by the Liaoning Provincial Social Science Planning Fund(L22AYJ010).
文摘The Liaohe River Basin(LRB)in Northeast China,a critical agricultural and industrial zone,has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization,intensified land use changes,and climate variability.Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield and its driving factors is essential for sustainable water resource management in this ecologically sensitive region.This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of water yield in the LRB(dividing into six sub-basins from east to west:East Liaohe River Basin(ELRB),Taizi River Basin(TRB),Middle Liaohe River Basin(MLRB),West Liaohe River Basin(WLRB),Xinkai River Basin(XRB),and Wulijimuren River Basin(WRB))from 1993 to 2022,with a focus on the impacts of climate change and land use cover change(LUCC).Results revealed that the LRB had an average annual precipitation of 483.15 mm,with an average annual water yield of 247.54 mm,both showing significant upward trend over the 30-a period.Spatially,water yield demonstrated significant heterogeneity,with higher values in southeastern sub-basins and lower values in northwestern sub-basins.The TRB exhibited the highest water yield due to abundant precipitation and favorable topography,while the WRB recorded the lowest water yield owing to arid conditions and sparse vegetation.Precipitation played a significant role in shaping the annual fluctuations and total volume of water yield,with its variability exerting substantially greater impacts than actual evapotranspiration(AET)and LUCC.However,LUCC,particularly cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction,significantly reshaped the spatial distribution of water yield by modifying surface runoff and infiltration patterns.This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield in the LRB,emphasizing the synergistic effects of climate change and land use change,which are pivotal for optimizing water resource management and advancing regional ecological conservation.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(No.ZCLQN25C0301)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0502700)the General Program of Education Department of Zhejiang(No.23056209-F).
文摘Forest carbon sinks are crucial for mitigating urban climate change.Their effectiveness depends on the balance between gross carbon losses and gains.However,quantitative and continuous monitoring of forest change/disturbance carbon fluxes is still insufficient.To address this gap,we integrated an improved spatial carbon bookkeeping(SBK)model with the continuous change detection and classification(CCDC)algorithm,long-term Landsat observations,and ground measurements to track carbon emissions,uptakes,and net changes from forest cover changes in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)of China from 2000 to 2020.The SBK model was refined by incorporating heterogeneous carbon response functions.Our results reveal that carbon emissions(-3.88 Tg C·year^(-1))were four times greater than carbon uptakes(0.93 Tg C·year^(-1))from forest cover changes in the YRD during 2000-2020,despite a net forest cover gain of 10.95×10^(4) ha.These findings indicate that the carbon effect per hectare of forest cover loss is approximately 4.5 times that of forest cover gain.The asymmetric carbon effect suggests that forest cover change may act as a carbon source even with net-zero or net-positive forest cover change.Furthermore,carbon uptakes from forest gains in the YRD during 2000-2020 could only offset 0.28% of energy-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019.Urban and agricultural expansions accounted for 37% and 10% of carbon emissions,respectively,while the Grain for Green Project contributed to 45% of carbon uptakes.Our findings underscore the necessity of understanding the asymmetric carbon effects of forest cover loss and gain to accurately assess the capacity of forest carbon sinks.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42302184)Innovation Group Project of Basic Research in Gansu Province,China(22JR5RA045)。
文摘The lamina(combination)types,reservoir characteristics and shale oil occurrence states of organic-rich shale in the Triassic Yanchang Formation Chang 73 sub-member in the Ordos Basin were systematically investigated to reveal the main controlling factors of shale oil occurrence under different lamina combinations.The differential enrichment mechanisms and patterns of shale oil were discussed using the shale oil micro-migration characterization and evaluation methods from the perspectives of relay hydrocarbon supply,stepwise migration,and multi-stage differentiation.The results are obtained in five aspects.First,Chang 73 shale mainly develops five types of lamina combination,i.e.non-laminated shale,sandy laminated shale,tuffaceous laminated shale,mixed laminated shale,and organic-rich laminated shale.Second,shales with different lamina combinations are obviously different in the reservoir space.Specifically,shales with sandy laminae and tuffaceous laminae have a large number of intergranular pores,dissolution pores and hydrocarbon generation-induced fractures.The multi-scale pore and fracture system constitutes the main place for liquid hydrocarbon occurrence.Third,the occurrence and distribution of shale oil in shale with different lamina combinations are jointly controlled by organic matter abundance,reservoir property,thermal evolution degree,mineral composition and laminae scale.The micro-nano-scale pore-fracture networks within shales containing rigid laminae,particularly sandy and tuffaceous laminations,primarily contain free-state light hydrocarbon components.In contrast,adsorption-phase heavy hydrocarbon components predominantly occupy surfaces of organic matter assemblages,clay mineral matrices,and framework mineral particulates.Fourth,there is obvious shale oil micro-migration between shales with different lamina combinations in Chang 73.Generally,such micro-migration is stepwise in a sequence of organic-rich laminated shale→tuffaceous laminated shale→mixed laminated shale→sandy lamiated shale→non-laminated shale.Fifth,the relay hydrocarbon supply of organic matter under the control of the spatial superposition of shales with various laminae,the stepwise migration via multi-scale pore and fracture network,and the multi-differentiation in shales with different lamina combinations under the control of organic-inorganic interactions fundamentally decide the differences of shale oil components between shales with different lamina combinations.
