Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the...Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine （SVM） to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.展开更多
It is well-known that the asteroids in the main belt trapped in the 3：1 Mean Motion Resonance （MMR） with Jupiter （at semi-major axes -2.5 AU） are few in number, forming one of the so-called Kirkwood Gaps. Wisdom ...It is well-known that the asteroids in the main belt trapped in the 3：1 Mean Motion Resonance （MMR） with Jupiter （at semi-major axes -2.5 AU） are few in number, forming one of the so-called Kirkwood Gaps. Wisdom pointed out that chaotic motion of such aster- oids can increase their eccentricities and make them approach and cross the orbit of Mars （or even the Earth）. We numerically investigated the orbital evolution of the asteroids involved in 3：1 MMR （NEOs） over millions of years and revisited the dynamical mechanisms of trasporitng such asteroids into the NEO region. The results show that the dynamical evolution of the asteroids around 2.5 AU is mainly dominated by the 3：1 resonance, the v5 and v6 secular resonances and the Kozai resonance, and these bodies can evolve into NEOs through several of the dynamical mechanisms, so indicating possible dynamical origin of the NEOs.展开更多
基金The Shanghai Committee of Science and Technology of China under contract No. 10510502800the Graduate Student Education Innovation Program Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission of Chinathe National Key Science Foundation Research "973" Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China under contract No. 2012CB316200
文摘Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine （SVM） to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘It is well-known that the asteroids in the main belt trapped in the 3：1 Mean Motion Resonance （MMR） with Jupiter （at semi-major axes -2.5 AU） are few in number, forming one of the so-called Kirkwood Gaps. Wisdom pointed out that chaotic motion of such aster- oids can increase their eccentricities and make them approach and cross the orbit of Mars （or even the Earth）. We numerically investigated the orbital evolution of the asteroids involved in 3：1 MMR （NEOs） over millions of years and revisited the dynamical mechanisms of trasporitng such asteroids into the NEO region. The results show that the dynamical evolution of the asteroids around 2.5 AU is mainly dominated by the 3：1 resonance, the v5 and v6 secular resonances and the Kozai resonance, and these bodies can evolve into NEOs through several of the dynamical mechanisms, so indicating possible dynamical origin of the NEOs.
