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Dissecting the Causal Association between Body Fat Mass and Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder:A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study
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作者 Meiling Hu Zhennan Lin +2 位作者 Hongwei Liu Yunfeng Xi Youxin Wang 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 2026年第1期36-45,共10页
Objective Previous studies link lower body mass index(BMI)with increased obsessive-compulsive disorder(OCD)risk,yet other body mass indicators may be more etioloically relevant.We dissected the causal association betw... Objective Previous studies link lower body mass index(BMI)with increased obsessive-compulsive disorder(OCD)risk,yet other body mass indicators may be more etioloically relevant.We dissected the causal association between body fat mass(FM)and OCD.Methods Summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of European ancestry were utilized to conduct two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis.Heterogeneity,horizontal pleiotropy,and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness.Results The inverse variance weighting method demonstrated that a genetically predicted decrease in FM was causally associated with an increased OCD risk[odds ratio(OR)=0.680,95%confidence interval(CI):0.528–0.875,P=0.003].Similar estimates were obtained using the weighted median approach(OR=0.633,95%CI:0.438–0.915,P=0.015).Each standard deviation increases in genetically predicted body fat percentage corresponded to a reduced OCD risk(OR=0.638,95%CI:0.455–0.896,P=0.009).The sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings with no outlier instrument variables identified.Conclusion The negative causal association between FM and the risk of OCD suggests that the prevention or treatment of mental disorders should include not only the control of BMI but also fat distribution and body composition. 展开更多
关键词 Mendelian randomization Body fat mass Obsessive-compulsive disorder causal inference
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Automatic Detection of Health-Related Rumors: A Dual-Graph Collaborative Reasoning Framework Based on Causal Logic and Knowledge Graph
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作者 Ning Wang Haoran Lyu Yuchen Fu 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第1期2163-2193,共31页
With the widespread use of social media,the propagation of health-related rumors has become a significant public health threat.Existing methods for detecting health rumors predominantly rely on external knowledge or p... With the widespread use of social media,the propagation of health-related rumors has become a significant public health threat.Existing methods for detecting health rumors predominantly rely on external knowledge or propagation structures,with only a few recent approaches attempting causal inference;however,these have not yet effectively integrated causal discovery with domain-specific knowledge graphs for detecting health rumors.In this study,we found that the combined use of causal discovery and domain-specific knowledge graphs can effectively identify implicit pseudo-causal logic embedded within texts,holding significant potential for health rumor detection.To this end,we propose CKDG—a dual-graph fusion framework based on causal logic and medical knowledge graphs.CKDG constructs a weighted causal graph to capture the implicit causal relationships in the text and introduces a medical knowledge graph to verify semantic consistency,thereby enhancing the ability to identify the misuse of professional terminology and pseudoscientific claims.In experiments conducted on a dataset comprising 8430 health rumors,CKDG achieved an accuracy of 91.28%and an F1 score of 90.38%,representing improvements of 5.11%and 3.29%over the best baseline,respectively.Our results indicate that the integrated use of causal discovery and domainspecific knowledge graphs offers significant advantages for health rumor detection systems.This method not only improves detection performance but also enhances the transparency and credibility of model decisions by tracing causal chains and sources of knowledge conflicts.We anticipate that this work will provide key technological support for the development of trustworthy health-information filtering systems,thereby improving the reliability of public health information on social media. 展开更多
关键词 Health rumor detection causal graph knowledge graph dual-graph fusion
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Causality Diagram-based Scheduling Approach for Blast Furnace Gas System 被引量:7
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作者 Feng Jin Jun Zhao +1 位作者 Chunyang Sheng Wei Wang 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第2期587-594,共8页
Rational use of blast furnace gas(BFG) in steel industry can raise economic profit, save fossil energy resources and alleviate the environment pollution. In this paper, a causality diagram is established to describe t... Rational use of blast furnace gas(BFG) in steel industry can raise economic profit, save fossil energy resources and alleviate the environment pollution. In this paper, a causality diagram is established to describe the causal relationships among the decision objective and the variables of the scheduling process for the industrial system, based on which the total scheduling amount of the BFG system can be computed by using a causal fuzzy C-means(CFCM) clustering algorithm. In this algorithm,not only the distances among the historical samples but also the effects of different solutions on the gas tank level are considered.The scheduling solution can be determined based on the proposed causal probability of the causality diagram calculated by the total amount and the conditions of the adjustable units. The causal probability quantifies the impact of different allocation schemes of the total scheduling amount on the BFG system. An evaluation method is then proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the scheduling solutions. The experiments by using the practical data coming from a steel plant in China indicate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the scheduling accuracy and reduce the gas diffusion. 展开更多
关键词 Index Terms-Blast furnace gas system causal fuzzy C-means(CFCM) clustering causality diagram scheduling.
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Application of causality diagram in system safety analysis 被引量:1
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作者 梁新元 《Journal of Chongqing University》 CAS 2005年第3期158-163,共6页
Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper... Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident. 展开更多
关键词 causality diagram (CD) gas explosion safety analysis minimal cut set (MCS) minimal path set (MPS)
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Structure and Connectivity Analysis of Financial Complex System Based on G-Causality Network
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作者 徐传明 闫妍 +2 位作者 朱晓武 李晓腾 陈晓松 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第11期630-636,共7页
The recent financial crisis highlights the inherent weaknesses of the financial market. To explore the mechanism that maintains the financial market as a system, we study the interactions of U.S. financial market from... The recent financial crisis highlights the inherent weaknesses of the financial market. To explore the mechanism that maintains the financial market as a system, we study the interactions of U.S. financial market from the network perspective. Applied with conditional Granger causality network analysis, network density, in-degree and out-degree rankings are important indicators to analyze the conditional causal relationships among financial agents, and further to assess the stability of U.S. financial systems. It is found that the topological structure of G-causality network in U.S. financial market changed in different stages over the last decade, especially during the recent global financial crisis. Network density of the G-causality model is much higher during the period of 2007-2009 crisis stage, and it reaches the peak value in 2008, the most turbulent time in the crisis. Ranked by in-degrees and out-degrees, insurance companies are listed in the top of 68 financial institutions during the crisis. They act as the hubs which are more easily influenced by other financial institutions and simultaneously influence others during the global financial disturbance. 展开更多
关键词 conditional Granger causality network (G-causality network) network density IN-DEGREE out-degree
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Causal Relation Analysis of Economic Systems and the improvement of Syetem Dynamis(1)(2)
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作者 Zan Tingquan(Northwest Development Institute, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, people’s Republic of China)Zhang Qinling(Department of Mathematics, Tianshui Normal College, Tianshui 741000, Gansu Province, P.R.China) 《天水师范学院学报》 1991年第4期73-82,共10页
The Causal relation and whole-part relation are the two fundamen-tal relations in economics.In this paper,on the basis of economic prob-lems analysis in practioce,some causal relation structures of economic sys-tems a... The Causal relation and whole-part relation are the two fundamen-tal relations in economics.In this paper,on the basis of economic prob-lems analysis in practioce,some causal relation structures of economic sys-tems and fundamental rules for operations research are,at first,prop-osed.And then,a quotienting(simplifying)analysis approach of eco-nomic causal relations is presented and discussed in detail.At last,animprovement framework of system dynamics is proposed based on theviewpoint of generalized causal relations analysis. 展开更多
关键词 ECONOMIC system causal RELATION causal MiniEnvi-ronment Quotienting Analysis.
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Causal Links Between Gut Microbiota and Vitamin Deficiencies:Evidence from Mendelian Randomization Analysis 被引量:1
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作者 Zi-xuan Hou Wen-jing Li +4 位作者 Rong Pi Han-wen-xi Wang Meng-na Dai Yan Ouyang Su-yun Li 《Current Medical Science》 2025年第2期321-330,共10页
Objective Vitamin deficiencies,particularly in vitamins A,B12,and D,are prevalent across populations and contribute significantly to a range of health issues.While these deficiencies are well documented,the underlying... Objective Vitamin deficiencies,particularly in vitamins A,B12,and D,are prevalent across populations and contribute significantly to a range of health issues.While these deficiencies are well documented,the underlying etiology remains complex.Recent studies suggest a close link between the gut microbiota and the synthesis,absorption,and metabolism of these vitamins.However,the specific causal relationships between the gut microbiota composition and vitamin deficiencies remain poorly understood.Identifying key bacterial species and understanding their role in vitamin metabolism could provide critical insights for targeted interventions.Methods We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR)study to assess the causal relationship between the gut microbiota and vitamin deficiencies(A,B12,D).The genome-wide association study data for vitamin deficiencies were sourced from the FinnGen biobank,and the gut microbiota data were from the MiBioGen consortium.MR analyses included inverse variance-weighted(IVW),MR‒Egger,weighted median,and weighted mode approaches.Sensitivity analyses and reverse causality assessments were performed to ensure robustness and validate the findings.Results After FDR adjustment,vitamin B12 deficiency was associated with the class Verrucomicrobiae,order Verrucomicrobiales,family Verrucomicrobiaceae,and genus Akkermansia.Vitamin A deficiency was associated with the phylum Firmicutes and the genera Fusicatenibacter and Ruminiclostridium 6.Additional associations for vitamin B12 deficiency included the Enterobacteriaceae and Rhodospirillaceae and the genera Coprococcus 2,Lactococcus,and Ruminococcaceae UCG002.Vitamin D deficiency was associated with the genera Allisonella,Eubacterium,and Tyzzerella 3.Lachnospiraceae and Lactococcus were common risk factors for both B12 and D deficiency.Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the findings against heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy,and reverse MR tests indicated no evidence of reverse causality.Conclusions Our findings reveal a possible causal relationship between specific gut microbiota characteristics and vitamin A,B12 and D deficiencies,providing a theoretical basis for addressing these nutritional deficiencies through the modulation of the gut microbiota in the future and laying the groundwork for related interventions. 展开更多
关键词 Gut microbiota Vitamin deficiencies Mendelian randomization causal relationship-Genome-wide association study
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Two Causal-Modeling Approaches to Indicative Conditionals
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作者 ChingHui Su 《逻辑学研究》 2025年第6期43-61,共19页
Recently there have been two causal modelling approaches to indicative conditionals,i.e.extrapolationist(Deng&Lee,2021)and filterist(Liang&Wang,2022),although they all take an interventionist position on subju... Recently there have been two causal modelling approaches to indicative conditionals,i.e.extrapolationist(Deng&Lee,2021)and filterist(Liang&Wang,2022),although they all take an interventionist position on subjunctive conditionals.Motivated by the so-called OK pairs,they try to provide a convincing explanation of the intuition underlying the OK pairs.As far as we know,what they have done is to provide not only an explanation of the OK pairs,but also a way of distinguishing between indicative and subjunctive conditionals.Although we agree with their success in explaining the OK pairs within a causal modelling framework,we argue that their ways of distinguishing between indicative and subjunctive conditionals fail.Instead,we argue that their approaches can be used to distinguish between two readings of conditionals,the epistemic reading and the ontic reading.which can be applied to both indicative and subjunctive conditionals.We conclude by arguing that these two readings are related to two approaches to asking and answering causal questions:the“auses-of-effects"approach and the"effects-of-causes"approach. 展开更多
关键词 subjunctive conditionals extrapolationist causal modelling approaches epistemic reading causal modeling filterist indicative subjunctive con ok pairs
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A Novel Evidential Reasoning Rule with Causal Relationships between Evidence
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作者 Shanshan Liu Liang Chang +1 位作者 Guanyu Hu Shiyu Li 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2025年第10期1113-1134,共22页
The evidential reasoning(ER)rule framework has been widely applied in multi-attribute decision analysis and system assessment to manage uncertainty.However,traditional ER implementations rely on two critical limitatio... The evidential reasoning(ER)rule framework has been widely applied in multi-attribute decision analysis and system assessment to manage uncertainty.However,traditional ER implementations rely on two critical limitations:1)unrealistic assumptions of complete evidence independence,and 2)a lack of mechanisms to differentiate causal relationships from spurious correlations.Existing similarity-based approaches often misinterpret interdependent evidence,leading to unreliable decision outcomes.To address these gaps,this study proposes a causality-enhanced ER rule(CER-e)framework with three key methodological innovations:1)a multidimensional causal representation of evidence to capture dependency structures;2)probabilistic quantification of causal strength using transfer entropy,a model-free information-theoretic measure;3)systematic integration of causal parameters into the ER inference process while maintaining evidential objectivity.The PC algorithm is employed during causal discovery to eliminate spurious correlations,ensuring robust causal inference.Case studies in two types of domains—telecommunications network security assessment and structural risk evaluation—validate CER-e’s effectiveness in real-world scenarios.Under simulated incomplete information conditions,the framework demonstrates superior algorithmic robustness compared to traditional ER.Comparative analyses show that CER-e significantly improves both the interpretability of causal relationships and the reliability of assessment results,establishing a novel paradigm for integrating causal inference with evidential reasoning in complex system evaluation. 展开更多
关键词 Evidential Reasoning Rule UNCERTAINTY causal strength causal relationship transfer entropy complex system evaluation
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Discovering causal models for structural,construction and defense-related engineering phenomena
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作者 M.Z.Naser 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 2025年第1期60-79,共20页
Causality,the science of cause and effect,has made it possible to create a new family of models.Such models are often referred to as causal models.Unlike those of mathematical,numerical,empirical,or machine learning(M... Causality,the science of cause and effect,has made it possible to create a new family of models.Such models are often referred to as causal models.Unlike those of mathematical,numerical,empirical,or machine learning(ML)nature,causal models hope to tie the cause(s)to the effect(s)pertaining to a phenomenon(i.e.,data generating process)through causal principles.This paper presents one of the first works at creating causal models in the area of structural and construction engineering.To this end,this paper starts with a brief review of the principles of causality and then adopts four causal discovery algorithms,namely,PC(Peter-Clark),FCI(fast causal inference),GES(greedy equivalence search),and GRa SP(greedy relaxation of the sparsest permutation),have been used to examine four phenomena,including predicting the load-bearing capacity of axially loaded members,fire resistance of structural members,shear strength of beams,and resistance of walls against impulsive(blast)loading.Findings from this study reveal the possibility and merit of discovering complete and partial causal models.Finally,this study also proposes two simple metrics that can help assess the performance of causal discovery algorithms. 展开更多
关键词 causalITY causal discovery Directed acyclic graphs Machine learning Metrics
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Bidirectional Mendelian randomization and mediation analysis of million-scale data reveal causal relationships between thyroid-related phenotypes,smoking,and lung cancer
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作者 Xiang Wang Xuan Wang +15 位作者 Mengsheng Zhao Lijuan Lin Yi Li Ning Xie Yanru Wang Aoxuan Wang Xiaowen Xu Can Ju Qiuyuan Chen Jiajin Chen Ruili Hou Zhongwen Zhang David C.Christiani Feng Chen Yongyue Wei Ruyang Zhang 《Journal of Biomedical Research》 2025年第5期441-451,I0001-I0023,共34页
Emerging evidence highlights the role of thyroid hormones in cancer,although findings are controversial.Research on thyroid-related traits in lung carcinogenesis is limited.Using UK Biobank data,we performed bidirecti... Emerging evidence highlights the role of thyroid hormones in cancer,although findings are controversial.Research on thyroid-related traits in lung carcinogenesis is limited.Using UK Biobank data,we performed bidirectional Mendelian randomization(MR)to assess causal associations between lung cancer risk and thyroid dysfunction(hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism)or functional traits(free thyroxine[FT4]and normal-range thyroid-stimulating hormone[TSH]).Furthermore,in the smoking-behavior-stratified MR analysis,we evaluated the mediating effect of thyroid-related phenotypes on the association between smoking behaviors and lung cancer.We demonstrated significant associations between lung cancer risk and hypothyroidism(hazard ratio[HR]=1.14,95%confidence interval[CI]=1.03–1.26,P=0.009)and hyperthyroidism(HR=1.55,95%CI=1.29–1.87,P=1.90×10^(-6))in the UKB.Moreover,the MR analysis indicated a causal effect of thyroid dysfunction on lung cancer risk(ORinverse variance weighted[IVW]=1.09,95%CI=1.05–1.13,P=3.12×10^(-6)for hypothyroidism;ORIVW=1.08,95%CI=1.04–1.12,P=8.14×10^(-5)for hyperthyroidism).We found that FT4 levels were protective against lung cancer risk(ORIVW=0.93,95%CI=0.87–0.99,P=0.030).Additionally,the stratified MR analysis demonstrated distinct causal effects of thyroid dysfunction on lung cancer risk among smokers.Hyperthyroidism mediated the effect of smoking behaviors,especially the age of smoking initiation(17.66%mediated),on lung cancer risk.Thus,thyroid dysfunction phenotypes play causal roles in lung cancer development exclusively among smokers and act as mediators in the causal pathway from smoking to lung cancer. 展开更多
关键词 HYPOTHYROIDISM HYPERTHYROIDISM lung neoplasms SMOKING causalITY Mendelian randomization analysis
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Hypothyroidism affects cholelithiasis causally: A two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization study
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作者 Xu Han Hong Zhu 《Journal of Biomedical Research》 2025年第3期319-324,共6页
Dear Editor,Observational studies in epidemiology have identified a correlation between hypothyroidism and cholelithiasis[1–2].However,the causal relationship between the two diseases remains unclear.To investigate t... Dear Editor,Observational studies in epidemiology have identified a correlation between hypothyroidism and cholelithiasis[1–2].However,the causal relationship between the two diseases remains unclear.To investigate the potential causal relationship,we employed a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization(MR)analysis. 展开更多
关键词 CHOLELITHIASIS HYPOTHYROIDISM causal relationship mendelian randomization
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Interpretable Fault Diagnosis for Liquid Rocket Engines via Component-Wise MLP-Based Granger Causality Feature Extraction
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作者 Longfei Zhang Zhi Zhai +3 位作者 Chenxi Wang Meng Ma Jinxin Liu Chunmin Wang 《Journal of Dynamics, Monitoring and Diagnostics》 2025年第3期203-212,共10页
Liquid rocket engine(LRE)fault diagnosis is critical for successful space launch missions,enabling timely avoidance of safety hazards,while accurate post-failure analysis prevents subsequent economic losses.However,th... Liquid rocket engine(LRE)fault diagnosis is critical for successful space launch missions,enabling timely avoidance of safety hazards,while accurate post-failure analysis prevents subsequent economic losses.However,the complexity of LRE systems and the“black-box”nature of current deep learning-based diagnostic methods hinder interpretable fault diagnosis.This paper establishes Granger causality(GC)extraction-based component-wise multi-layer perceptron(GCMLP),achieving high fault diagnosis accuracy while leveraging GC to enhance diagnostic interpretability.First,component-wise MLP networks are constructed for distinct LRE variables to extract inter-variable GC relationships.Second,dedicated predictors are designed for each variable,leveraging historical data and GC relationships to forecast future states,thereby ensuring GC reliability.Finally,the extracted GC features are utilized for fault classification,guaranteeing feature discriminability and diagnosis accuracy.This study simulates six critical fault modes in LRE using Simulink.Based on the generated simulation data,GCMLP demonstrates superior fault localization accuracy compared to benchmark methods,validating its efficacy and robustness. 展开更多
关键词 fault diagnosis Granger causality INTERPRETABILITY liquid rocket engine MLP
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Quantified causality dependence of dynamical relation between zonal flow and heat transport on isotope mass in tokamak edge plasmas
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作者 Yu He Zhongbing Shi +10 位作者 Yuhong Xu Jun Cheng Jianqiang Xu Zhihui Huang Na Wu Kaiyang Yi Weice Wang Min Jiang Longwen Yan Xiaoquan Ji Wulyu Zhong 《Chinese Physics B》 2025年第10期452-457,共6页
The isotope effect on zonal flows(ZFs)and turbulence remains a key issue that is not completely solved in fusion plasmas.This paper presents the first experimental results of the ab initio prediction of causal relatio... The isotope effect on zonal flows(ZFs)and turbulence remains a key issue that is not completely solved in fusion plasmas.This paper presents the first experimental results of the ab initio prediction of causal relation between geodesic acoustic mode(GAM)and ambient turbulence at different isotope masses in the edge of HL-2A tokamak,where transfer entropy method based on information-theoretical approach is utilized as a quantified indicator of causality.Analysis shows that GAM is more pronounced in deuterium plasmas than in hydrogen,leading to a lower heat transport as well as more peaked profiles in the former situation.The causal impact of GAM on conductive heat flux component is stronger than on the convective component,which is resulted from a larger causal influence of zonal flow on temperature fluctuation.While a stronger GAM in deuterium plasmas has larger influence on all flux components,the relative change in temperature fluctuation and coefficient is more obvious when the ion mass varies.These findings not only offer an in-depth understanding of the real causality between zonal flow and turbulence in the present isotope experiments,but also provide useful ways for the physical understandings of transport and zonal flow dynamics in future deuterium-tritium fusion plasmas. 展开更多
关键词 isotope effect zonal flow heat transport causalITY
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Causal inference between physical activity and chronic diseases:Insights from a two-sample Mendelian randomization study
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作者 Peng Qiu Junyu Wu +2 位作者 Min Li Zhiguang Zhao Qirong Wang 《Sports Medicine and Health Science》 2025年第6期446-452,共7页
Chronic diseases are major causes of global death and disability,significantly impacting individual health and imposing economic burdens.This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between physical activity... Chronic diseases are major causes of global death and disability,significantly impacting individual health and imposing economic burdens.This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between physical activity(PA)and the development of chronic diseases.Using a Mendelian randomization(MR)approach,we incorporated average PA and its subtypes(more than 450000 participants)as exposure measures and eight chronic diseases as outcome measures.Data were obtained from the European Genome-Wide Association Study(GWAS).The primary causal analysis technique employed was the inverse variance weighting(IVW)method,with MR-Egger,weighted median,weighted mode,and simple mode used to validate the results.Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity and pleiotropy.The IVW approach results show that vigorous physical activity(VPA)is associated with a modest reduction in the risk of major coronary heart disease(OR=0.95,95%CI:0.91–0.99,p=0.01).The causal directions of the other four MR methods are consistent with this result and validated by sensitivity analysis.No substantial associations were found between other levels of PA and chronic disease.Our findings underscore the importance of VPA in preventive cardiology and suggest its potential role in public health initiatives.Further research should explore the impact of PA on different demographic groups and the doseresponse relationship of VPA on heart health. 展开更多
关键词 Physical activity Chronic diseases Major coronary heart disease Mendelian randomization causal inference
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A new method for the rate of penetration prediction and control based on signal decomposition and causal inference
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作者 Yong-Dong Fan Hui-Wen Pang +3 位作者 Yan Jin Han Meng Yun-Hu Lu Hao-Dong Chen 《Petroleum Science》 2025年第6期2414-2437,共24页
Offshore drilling costs are high,and the downhole environment is even more complex.Improving the rate of penetration(ROP)can effectively shorten offshore drilling cycles and improve economic benefits.It is difficult f... Offshore drilling costs are high,and the downhole environment is even more complex.Improving the rate of penetration(ROP)can effectively shorten offshore drilling cycles and improve economic benefits.It is difficult for the current ROP models to guarantee the prediction accuracy and the robustness of the models at the same time.To address the current issues,a new ROP prediction model was developed in this study,which considers ROP as a time series signal(ROP signal).The model is based on the time convolutional network(TCN)framework and integrates ensemble empirical modal decomposition(EEMD)and Bayesian network causal inference(BN),the model is named EEMD-BN-TCN.Within the proposed model,the EEMD decomposes the original ROP signal into multiple sets of sub-signals.The BN determines the causal relationship between the sub-signals and the key physical parameters(weight on bit and revolutions per minute)and carries out preliminary reconstruction of the sub-signals based on the causal relationship.The TCN predicts signals reconstructed by BN.When applying this model to an actual production well,the average absolute percentage error of the EEMD-BN-TCN prediction decreased from 18.4%with TCN to 9.2%.In addition,compared with other models,the EEMD-BN-TCN can improve the decomposition signal of ROP by regulating weight on bit and revolutions per minute,ultimately enhancing ROP. 展开更多
关键词 Rate of penetration Signal decomposition causal inference Parameters regulation Machine learning
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Do we actually understand the impact of renewables on electricity prices?A causal inference approach
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作者 Davide Cacciarelli Pierre Pinson +2 位作者 Filip Panagiotopoulos David Dixon Lizzie Blaxland 《iEnergy》 2025年第4期247-258,共12页
Understanding how renewable energy generation affects electricity prices is essential for designing efficient and sustainable electricity markets.However,most existing studies rely on regression-based approaches that ... Understanding how renewable energy generation affects electricity prices is essential for designing efficient and sustainable electricity markets.However,most existing studies rely on regression-based approaches that capture correlations but fail to identify causal relationships,particularly in the presence of non-linearities and confounding factors.This limits their value for informing policy and market design in the context of the energy transition.To address this gap,we propose a novel causal inference framework based on local partially linear double machine learning(DML).Our method isolates the true impact of predicted wind and solar power generation on electricity prices by controlling for high-dimensional confounders and allowing for non-linear,context-dependent effects.This represents a substantial methodological advancement over standard econometric techniques.Applying this framework to the UK electricity market over the period 2018-2024,we produce the first robust causal estimates of how renewables affect dayahead wholesale electricity prices.We find that wind power exerts a U-shaped causal effect:at low penetration levels,a 1 GWh increase reduces prices by up to£7/MWh,the effect weakens at mid-levels,and intensifies again at higher penetration.Solar power consistently reduces prices at low penetration levels,up to£9/MWh per additional GWh,but its marginal effect diminishes quickly.Importantly,the magnitude of these effects has increased over time,reflecting the growing influence of renewables on price formation as their share in the energy mix rises.These findings offer a sound empirical basis for improving the design of support schemes,refining capacity planning,and enhancing electricity market efficiency.By providing a robust causal understanding of renewable impacts,our study contributes both methodological innovation and actionable insights to guide future energy policy. 展开更多
关键词 causal inference electricity prices renewable energy wind power solar power double machine learning
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Temperature and water availability drive vegetation resilience dynamics in China: An empirical study from causal perspective
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作者 WU Jiapei ZHAO Qikang +2 位作者 ZHOU Yuke NI Yong FAN Junfu 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 2025年第10期2069-2090,共22页
Understanding the characteristics and driving factors behind changes in vegetation ecosystem resilience is crucial for mitigating both current and future impacts of climate change. Despite recent advances in resilienc... Understanding the characteristics and driving factors behind changes in vegetation ecosystem resilience is crucial for mitigating both current and future impacts of climate change. Despite recent advances in resilience research, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the drivers of resilience changes. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of ecosystem resilience across China and identified potential driving factors using the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI) from 2000 to 2020. Our results indicate that vegetation resilience in China has exhibited an increasing trend over the past two decades, with a notable breakpoint occurring around 2012. We found that precipitation was the dominant driver of changes in ecosystem resilience, accounting for 35.82% of the variation across China, followed by monthly average maximum temperature(Tmax) and vapor pressure deficit(VPD), which explained 28.95% and 28.31% of the variation, respectively. Furthermore, we revealed that daytime and nighttime warming has asymmetric impacts on vegetation resilience, with temperature factors such as Tmin and Tmax becoming more influential, while the importance of precipitation slightly decreases after the resilience change point. Overall, our study highlights the key roles of water availability and temperature in shaping vegetation resilience and underscores the asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on ecosystem resilience. 展开更多
关键词 vegetation resilience climate change causal inference vegetation index remote sensing of ecosystem
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Genetic Causality of Antibody Immune Responses in Hemorrhagic Stroke
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作者 Nie Chenyi Zhou Jiaxin +2 位作者 Yu Zhao Li Kuo Gao Aili 《Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(English Edition)》 2025年第4期61-73,共13页
Hemorrhagic stroke,the second leading cause of stroke,is a severe medical emergency that often leads to severe disability or death;however,the causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrh... Hemorrhagic stroke,the second leading cause of stroke,is a severe medical emergency that often leads to severe disability or death;however,the causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke remains unknown.This study aimed to investigate the potential causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses to infectious agents and hemorrhagic stroke using the two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR)method.Comprehensive analyses were conducted using publicly available data from genome-wide association study(GWAS),which involved the whole genomes of 9724 European participants and 46 antibody measurement phenotypes,and summary statistics from the FinnGen dataset R12(including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage)were used.The causal relationship between the aforementioned immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke was analyzed using inverse-variance weighting,MR-Egger regression,weighted median,weighted mode,simple mode,and MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier(MR-PRESSO),while various sensitivity analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity and pleiotropy in the study findings.Results showed that human herpes virus 7(HHV-7)U14 antibody levels(OR:0.877,95%CI:0.797-0.964,P=0.007)exerted a protective effect against hemorrhagic stroke,and Chlamydia trachomatis(CT)tarp-D F2 antibody levels(OR:0.937,95%CI:0.885-0.992,P=0.025)had a potential protective effect;additionally,Epstein-Barr virus(EBV)ZEBRA antibody levels(OR:1.062,95%CI:1.012-1.114,P=0.014),human herpesvirus 6(HHV-6)p101k antibody levels(OR:1.054,95%CI:1.002-1.108,P=0.042),and cytomegalovirus(CMV)pp150 antibody levels(OR:1.086,95%CI:1.002-1.176,P=0.045)were potential risk factors for the disease.No significant pleiotropy or heterogeneity was observed in any of the MR analyses.Collectively,these findings confirmed a significant causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke,and this study contributed to a deeper understanding of the potential mechanisms underlying hemorrhagic stroke onset. 展开更多
关键词 antibody immune response hemorrhagic stroke Mendelian randomization causal inference
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Point-PC:Point cloud completion guided by prior knowledge via causal inference
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作者 Xuesong Gao Chuanqi Jiao +2 位作者 Ruidong Chen Weijie Wang Weizhi Nie 《CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology》 2025年第4期1007-1018,共12页
The goal of point cloud completion is to reconstruct raw scanned point clouds acquired from incomplete observations due to occlusion and restricted viewpoints.Numerous methods use a partial-to-complete framework,direc... The goal of point cloud completion is to reconstruct raw scanned point clouds acquired from incomplete observations due to occlusion and restricted viewpoints.Numerous methods use a partial-to-complete framework,directly predicting missing components via global characteristics extracted from incomplete inputs.However,this makes detail re-covery challenging,as global characteristics fail to provide complete missing component specifics.A new point cloud completion method named Point-PC is proposed.A memory network and a causal inference model are separately designed to introduce shape priors and select absent shape information as supplementary geometric factors for aiding completion.Concretely,a memory mechanism is proposed to store complete shape features and their associated shapes in a key-value format.The authors design a pre-training strategy that uses contrastive learning to map incomplete shape features into the complete shape feature domain,enabling retrieval of analogous shapes from incomplete inputs.In addition,the authors employ backdoor adjustment to eliminate confounders,which are shape prior components sharing identical semantic structures with incomplete inputs.Experiments conducted on three datasets show that our method achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches.The code for Point-PC can be accessed by https://github.com/bizbard/Point-PC.git. 展开更多
关键词 causal inference contrastive alignment memory network point cloud completion
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