Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensi...Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.展开更多
Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.The...Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.Therefore,it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales.In this study,a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed.With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space,buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis.The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey,with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity.The index was represented by the building vulnerability,socioeconomic vulnerability,and vulnerability of the built environment.To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from,an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed.Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped,a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability,and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk.With its objectivity and straightforward implementation,the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.展开更多
Low carbon intensive use of urban land is an important trend to achieve regional high quality development.In this study,with Kaifeng municipal district as an example,the catastrophe progression model was used to estim...Low carbon intensive use of urban land is an important trend to achieve regional high quality development.In this study,with Kaifeng municipal district as an example,the catastrophe progression model was used to estimate and analyze the low-carbon intensive use level of urban land in Kaifeng City from 2011 to 2020,and the obstacle factors in the process of low-carbon intensive land use in Kaifeng City were revealed by using the obstacle degree model.The results showed that during the study period,the low-carbon intensive use of land in Kaifeng City showed a slow,fluctuating and declining trend,and the overall situation was in a generally intensive state.The land input level and land output level were on the rise,while the low-carbon level of land and the degree of land use were on the decline.Currently,the main obstacle factors restricting the low-carbon intensive use of land in Kaifeng City were the carbon structure coefficient of land use,energy consumption per square kilometer,carbon emissions per square kilometer,carbon emissions per capita,and non-agricultural land use efficiency.In the future,it is necessary to further improve the land use structure and promote the high-quality development of Kaifeng City.展开更多
基金Projects 50574072, 50874089 and 50534049 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China08JK366 by the Special Scientific Foundation of Educational Committee of Shaanxi Province
文摘Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.
基金supported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency under Project No.AFAD-UDAP-Ç-19-06.
文摘Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.Therefore,it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales.In this study,a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed.With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space,buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis.The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey,with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity.The index was represented by the building vulnerability,socioeconomic vulnerability,and vulnerability of the built environment.To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from,an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed.Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped,a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability,and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk.With its objectivity and straightforward implementation,the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.
基金Basic Scientific Research Business Expense Project of Scientific Research and Development of Henan Academy of Sciences(210601043).
文摘Low carbon intensive use of urban land is an important trend to achieve regional high quality development.In this study,with Kaifeng municipal district as an example,the catastrophe progression model was used to estimate and analyze the low-carbon intensive use level of urban land in Kaifeng City from 2011 to 2020,and the obstacle factors in the process of low-carbon intensive land use in Kaifeng City were revealed by using the obstacle degree model.The results showed that during the study period,the low-carbon intensive use of land in Kaifeng City showed a slow,fluctuating and declining trend,and the overall situation was in a generally intensive state.The land input level and land output level were on the rise,while the low-carbon level of land and the degree of land use were on the decline.Currently,the main obstacle factors restricting the low-carbon intensive use of land in Kaifeng City were the carbon structure coefficient of land use,energy consumption per square kilometer,carbon emissions per square kilometer,carbon emissions per capita,and non-agricultural land use efficiency.In the future,it is necessary to further improve the land use structure and promote the high-quality development of Kaifeng City.
