The average risk indices,such as the loss of load expectation(LOLE)and expected demand not supplied(EDNS),have been widely used in risk assessment of power systems.However,the average indices can't distinguish bet...The average risk indices,such as the loss of load expectation(LOLE)and expected demand not supplied(EDNS),have been widely used in risk assessment of power systems.However,the average indices can't distinguish between the events of low probability but high damage and the events of high probability but low damage.In order to ov+rcome these shortcomings,this paper proposes an extended risk analysis framework for the power system based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method(PMRM).展开更多
An integrated energy system (IES) is a regional energy system incorporating distributed multi-energy systems to serve various energy demands such as electricity, heating, cooling, and gas. The reliability analysis pla...An integrated energy system (IES) is a regional energy system incorporating distributed multi-energy systems to serve various energy demands such as electricity, heating, cooling, and gas. The reliability analysis plays a key role in guaranteeing the safety and adequacy of an IES. This paper aims to build a capacity reliability model of an IES. The multi-energy correlation in the IES can generate the dependent capacity outage states, which is the distinguished reliability feature of an IES from a generation system. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel analytical method to model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states and their joint outage probabilities of an IES for its reliability assessment. To model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states, a new multi-dimensional matrix method is presented in the capacity outage probability table (COPT) model of the generation system. Furthermore, a customized multi-dimensional discrete convolution algorithm is proposed to compute the reliability model, and the adequacy indices are calculated in an accurate and efficient way. Case studies demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method. The capacity value of multi-energy conversion facilities is also quantified by the proposed method.展开更多
文摘The average risk indices,such as the loss of load expectation(LOLE)and expected demand not supplied(EDNS),have been widely used in risk assessment of power systems.However,the average indices can't distinguish between the events of low probability but high damage and the events of high probability but low damage.In order to ov+rcome these shortcomings,this paper proposes an extended risk analysis framework for the power system based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method(PMRM).
基金This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51637008)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFB0901900).
文摘An integrated energy system (IES) is a regional energy system incorporating distributed multi-energy systems to serve various energy demands such as electricity, heating, cooling, and gas. The reliability analysis plays a key role in guaranteeing the safety and adequacy of an IES. This paper aims to build a capacity reliability model of an IES. The multi-energy correlation in the IES can generate the dependent capacity outage states, which is the distinguished reliability feature of an IES from a generation system. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel analytical method to model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states and their joint outage probabilities of an IES for its reliability assessment. To model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states, a new multi-dimensional matrix method is presented in the capacity outage probability table (COPT) model of the generation system. Furthermore, a customized multi-dimensional discrete convolution algorithm is proposed to compute the reliability model, and the adequacy indices are calculated in an accurate and efficient way. Case studies demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method. The capacity value of multi-energy conversion facilities is also quantified by the proposed method.
