With the increase of China’s bond issuance and slowdown of the economic growth,the potential credit risks such as bond default in the bond market are gradually emerging.The frequent occurrence of bond defaults and th...With the increase of China’s bond issuance and slowdown of the economic growth,the potential credit risks such as bond default in the bond market are gradually emerging.The frequent occurrence of bond defaults and the problem of false credit ratings make bond investors and market participants more cautious about the credit ratings issued by rating agencies.Based on the default bonds from 2016 to 2019,this paper analyzes the adjustment of rating of defaulted bonds by rating agencies before default.It also compares the impact of both the regulatory events and the entrance of international agencies on timeless of credit ratings on default bonds.At the same time,the divergence of rating timeliness between different rating agencies is compared.The research shows that after the unified supervision of regulators and the punishment of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.Ltd in 2018,the timeliness of rating agencies'downgrading of defaulted bonds has increased significantly;Compared with other rating agencies,the timeliness of rating agencies owned by international rating agencies are better.展开更多
This paper provides the first empirical study on bond defaults in the Chinese market.It overcomes the deficiencies of existing methods,which suffer from lack of actual default data for back testing.With newly availabl...This paper provides the first empirical study on bond defaults in the Chinese market.It overcomes the deficiencies of existing methods,which suffer from lack of actual default data for back testing.With newly available bond default data,we analyze the roles of market variables against accounting variables under various models.While we find that Merton's market-based structural model and KMV's Distance to Default exhibit languid discriminating power compared with hazard models that have carefully constructed predictors,other market variables carry significant information about bond defaults and could help improve on models with only the accounting variables.This implies that the collective intelligence of the market could somehow mitigate the distortion caused by misreported accounting information.Further,model performance can be significantly improved by adding predicting variables that link an individual financial measure to the broader market performance,such as the relative margin—a business environment proxy introduced in this study.We not only shed light on the default behavior of the Chinese bond market,but also provide a promising approach to improve the variable selection process.展开更多
China’s credit bond market has rapidly expanded in recent years.However,since 2014,the number of credit bond defaults has been increasing rapidly,posing enormous potential risks to the stability of the financial mark...China’s credit bond market has rapidly expanded in recent years.However,since 2014,the number of credit bond defaults has been increasing rapidly,posing enormous potential risks to the stability of the financial market.This study proposed a deep learning approach to predict credit bond defaults in the Chinese market.A convolutional neural network(CNN)was selected as the classification model and to reduce the extreme imbalance between defaulted and non-defaulted bonds,and a generative adversarial network(GAN)was used as the oversampling model.Based on 31 financial and 20 non-financial indicators,we collected Wind data on all credit bonds issued and matured or defaulted from 2014 to 2021.The experimental results showed that our GAN+CNN approach had superior predictive performance with an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.9157 and precision of 0.8871 compared to previous research and other commonly used classification models-including the logistic regression,support vector machine,and fully connected neural network models-and oversampling techniques-including the synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)and Borderline SMOTE model.For one-year predictions,indicators of solvency,capital structure,and fundamental properties of bonds are proved to be the most important indicators.展开更多
In this paper a generalized defaultable bond pricing formula is derived by assuming that there exists a defaultable forward rate term structure and that firms in the economy interact when default occurs.Generally,The ...In this paper a generalized defaultable bond pricing formula is derived by assuming that there exists a defaultable forward rate term structure and that firms in the economy interact when default occurs.Generally,The risk-neutral default intensity λ Q is not equal to the empirical or actual default intensity λ.This paper proves that multiple default intensities are invariant under equivalent martingale transformation,given a well-diversified portfolio corresponding to the defaultable bond.Thus one can directly apply default intensities and fractional losses empirically estimated to the evaluation of defaultable bonds or contingent claims.展开更多
The pricing of corporate bond with the default correlation was studied when the corporate holded the share of other corporates . On the basis of stochastic interest rate, the model of firm's bond with default corr...The pricing of corporate bond with the default correlation was studied when the corporate holded the share of other corporates . On the basis of stochastic interest rate, the model of firm's bond with default correlation was established by means of reduced form and partial differential equations (PDE). Also, the close form formula for the pricing of the firm's bond was obtained. Finally, some numerical examples were given to illustrate how our models work.展开更多
Convertible bond gives holder the right to choose a conversion strategy to maximize the bond value, and issuer also has the right to minimize the bond value in order to maximize equity value. When there is default occ...Convertible bond gives holder the right to choose a conversion strategy to maximize the bond value, and issuer also has the right to minimize the bond value in order to maximize equity value. When there is default occurring, conversion and calling strategies are invalid. In the framework of reduced form model, we reduce the price of convertible bond to variational inequalities, and the coefficients of variational inequalities are unbounded at the original point. Then the existence and uniqueness of variational inequality are proven. Finally, we prove that the conversion area, the calling area and the holding area are connected subsets of the state space.展开更多
文摘With the increase of China’s bond issuance and slowdown of the economic growth,the potential credit risks such as bond default in the bond market are gradually emerging.The frequent occurrence of bond defaults and the problem of false credit ratings make bond investors and market participants more cautious about the credit ratings issued by rating agencies.Based on the default bonds from 2016 to 2019,this paper analyzes the adjustment of rating of defaulted bonds by rating agencies before default.It also compares the impact of both the regulatory events and the entrance of international agencies on timeless of credit ratings on default bonds.At the same time,the divergence of rating timeliness between different rating agencies is compared.The research shows that after the unified supervision of regulators and the punishment of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.Ltd in 2018,the timeliness of rating agencies'downgrading of defaulted bonds has increased significantly;Compared with other rating agencies,the timeliness of rating agencies owned by international rating agencies are better.
文摘This paper provides the first empirical study on bond defaults in the Chinese market.It overcomes the deficiencies of existing methods,which suffer from lack of actual default data for back testing.With newly available bond default data,we analyze the roles of market variables against accounting variables under various models.While we find that Merton's market-based structural model and KMV's Distance to Default exhibit languid discriminating power compared with hazard models that have carefully constructed predictors,other market variables carry significant information about bond defaults and could help improve on models with only the accounting variables.This implies that the collective intelligence of the market could somehow mitigate the distortion caused by misreported accounting information.Further,model performance can be significantly improved by adding predicting variables that link an individual financial measure to the broader market performance,such as the relative margin—a business environment proxy introduced in this study.We not only shed light on the default behavior of the Chinese bond market,but also provide a promising approach to improve the variable selection process.
基金supported in part by the Emerging Interdisciplinary Project of Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing,China.
文摘China’s credit bond market has rapidly expanded in recent years.However,since 2014,the number of credit bond defaults has been increasing rapidly,posing enormous potential risks to the stability of the financial market.This study proposed a deep learning approach to predict credit bond defaults in the Chinese market.A convolutional neural network(CNN)was selected as the classification model and to reduce the extreme imbalance between defaulted and non-defaulted bonds,and a generative adversarial network(GAN)was used as the oversampling model.Based on 31 financial and 20 non-financial indicators,we collected Wind data on all credit bonds issued and matured or defaulted from 2014 to 2021.The experimental results showed that our GAN+CNN approach had superior predictive performance with an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.9157 and precision of 0.8871 compared to previous research and other commonly used classification models-including the logistic regression,support vector machine,and fully connected neural network models-and oversampling techniques-including the synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)and Borderline SMOTE model.For one-year predictions,indicators of solvency,capital structure,and fundamental properties of bonds are proved to be the most important indicators.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(70 0 71 0 1 2 )
文摘In this paper a generalized defaultable bond pricing formula is derived by assuming that there exists a defaultable forward rate term structure and that firms in the economy interact when default occurs.Generally,The risk-neutral default intensity λ Q is not equal to the empirical or actual default intensity λ.This paper proves that multiple default intensities are invariant under equivalent martingale transformation,given a well-diversified portfolio corresponding to the defaultable bond.Thus one can directly apply default intensities and fractional losses empirically estimated to the evaluation of defaultable bonds or contingent claims.
基金National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 program) (No. 2007CB814903)Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project,China ( No. S30405)the Research Program of Shanghai Normal University,China (No. SK201211)
文摘The pricing of corporate bond with the default correlation was studied when the corporate holded the share of other corporates . On the basis of stochastic interest rate, the model of firm's bond with default correlation was established by means of reduced form and partial differential equations (PDE). Also, the close form formula for the pricing of the firm's bond was obtained. Finally, some numerical examples were given to illustrate how our models work.
基金Supported by the NNSF of China (10671144)NBRP of China (2007CB814903)
文摘Convertible bond gives holder the right to choose a conversion strategy to maximize the bond value, and issuer also has the right to minimize the bond value in order to maximize equity value. When there is default occurring, conversion and calling strategies are invalid. In the framework of reduced form model, we reduce the price of convertible bond to variational inequalities, and the coefficients of variational inequalities are unbounded at the original point. Then the existence and uniqueness of variational inequality are proven. Finally, we prove that the conversion area, the calling area and the holding area are connected subsets of the state space.
