This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of ob...This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.展开更多
Uncontrolled land use land cover change(LULCC) is impacting watershed hydrology,particularly in tropical watersheds in developing countries. We assessed the extent of LULCC in the southern portion of the Nyong River b...Uncontrolled land use land cover change(LULCC) is impacting watershed hydrology,particularly in tropical watersheds in developing countries. We assessed the extent of LULCC in the southern portion of the Nyong River basin through analysis of three land use maps in 1987, 2000 and2014. LULCC impact on hydrological variables of the Mbalmayo, Olama, Pont So’o, Messam, and Nsimi sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin were evaluated by using the linear regression modeling and the Mann-Kendall test. This study reveals that dense forest cover decreased by16%, young secondary forest increased by 18%,agricultural/cropland increased by 10%, and built-up area/bare soil increased by 3% from 1987 to 2014.The decrease in dense forest cover at 0.6% per year on average was driven by indiscriminate expansion of subsistence agricultural/cropland through shifting and fallow cultivation farming systems. Nonsignificant trends in total discharge, high flows, and low flows were observed in the large sub-watersheds of Mbalmayo and Olama from 1998 to 2013 with LULCC within the watershed. In contrast, significant decreasing trends in stream discharge(up to-5.1%and-5.9%), and significant increasing trends in high flows(up to 2.1% and 6.3%), respectively, were observed in the small sub-watersheds of Pont So’o and Messam from 1998 to 2013, particularly with increase in agricultural/cropland cover and decrease in dense forest cover. However, we found nonsignificant trends in mean annual discharge and low flows for all and whole watershed with LULCC. The results reveal spatially varying trends of stream discharge, low flows and high flows among the subwatersheds with LULCC within the study watershed.The results suggest that the impacts of LULCC on watershed hydrology are easily detected in small subwatersheds than in large sub-watersheds. Therefore,the magnitude of dense forest cover loss must be significantly greater than 16% to cause significant changes and common trends in the hydrology of the sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin. The Mann-Kendall and Regression approaches show appreciable potential for modelling the impacts of LULCC on the hydrology of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin and for informing forest management.展开更多
The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid mo...The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.展开更多
Long-term monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 at 17 rain stations are analyzed to explore spatio-temporal variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China, using anomaly anal...Long-term monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 at 17 rain stations are analyzed to explore spatio-temporal variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China, using anomaly analysis, simple linear regressive technique, Mann-Kendall trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform. The results indicate that: (1) increasing precipitation trend is observed in summer and winter, while decreasing precipitation trend is identified in spring and autumn, and the above mentioned precipitation trends are not statistically significant;(2) changing trend of the areal average annual precipitation is non-significantly increasing, and increasing trend happens in almost the whole basin except in western and south-eastern small parts;(3) the spatial distribution of the seasonal and annual precipitation anomalies between 1991-2008 and 1960-2008 is similar to that of seasonal and annual precipitation trend during 1960-2008;(4) three main time-frequency distributions are observed in annual precipitation series during 1960- 2008, and they are 18 - 26 years, 8 - 14 years and 2 - 8 years, respectively;accordingly, there are three main periods in annual precipitation series, and they are 11-year, 22-year and 5-year respectively. This result will be helpful for further research on availability, scientific management and assessment of the water resources of the Poyang Lake basin.展开更多
Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004,the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze varia...Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004,the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze variations in the characteristics and factors influencing runoff.Specifically,the general characteristics list as:The distribution of runoff was found to be uneven within a year,and the annual variation showed an overall decreasing trend.The abrupt change points of runoff were found to be in the early 1960s,middle 1980s and late 1990s.Multiple time scales analysis revealed three time-scale cycles,a long-term cycle of about 20-35 years with a scale center of 25 years,another cycle of about 8-15 years with a scale center of 11 years and a short-term cycle of about 5 years.Based on the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients figure of the 25-year time scale,it is preliminarily estimated that the Nen River Basin will enter a high flow period in 2013.The results obtained using various methods were consistent with each other.The physical causes of the results were also analyzed to confirm their accuracy.展开更多
Using an integrated method combining wavelet analysis and non-parameter Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin based on SPOT-VEG images from 19...Using an integrated method combining wavelet analysis and non-parameter Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin based on SPOT-VEG images from 1998 to 2008 The results indicate： （1） Vegetation cover presented marked seasonal variation during the study period, with minima around winter and maxima in summer. The detail component D5 （with semi-period of 240 days） has presented a major contribution to the intra-armual variability. Forest vegetation presents a marked decreasing trend, while alpine shrubs, meadow, typical steppe, desert steppe, and forest （meadow） steppe vegetation all show a marked increasing trend. （2） Mean vegetation amount increased from the upper to lower reaches of the basin. It is low in the Ordos Plateau and Loess Plateau, and high in the southern Loess Plateau and the lower reaches. Amplitude of the annual phenological cycle pre- sents an opposite pattern in spatial distribution with that of the mean vegetation amount. （3） Vegetation cover presented a dominant positive inter-annual change trend, which implies that the eco-environment in the region has steadily improved. Only a few areas show a negative trend, which are located in the upper reaches and the southern Loess Plateau.展开更多
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of th...Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.展开更多
Hydrological events should be described through several correlated variables, so multivariate HFA has gained popularity and become an active research field during recent years. However, at present multivariate HFA mai...Hydrological events should be described through several correlated variables, so multivariate HFA has gained popularity and become an active research field during recent years. However, at present multivariate HFA mainly focuses directly on fitting the frequency distribution without confirming whether the assumptions are satisfied. Neglecting testing these assumptions could get severely wrong frequency distribution. This paper uses multivariate Mann-Kendal testing to detect the multivariate trends of annual flood peak and annual maximum 15 day volume for four control hydrological stations in the?Upper Yangtze River Basin. Results indicate that multivariate test could detect the trends of joint variables, whereas univariate tests can only detect the univariate trends. Therefore, it is recommended to jointly apply univariate and multivariate trend tests to capture all the existing trends.展开更多
Extreme meteorological and hydrological events may cause major disasters and heavy social and economic losses. Therefore, more and more studies have focused on extreme hydro-meteorological events in various climates a...Extreme meteorological and hydrological events may cause major disasters and heavy social and economic losses. Therefore, more and more studies have focused on extreme hydro-meteorological events in various climates and geographic regions. Based on nearly 50 years of observed records of the Poyang Lake Basin, the occurrence and changing trends of extreme streamflow indices, including the annual maximum flow, annual peak-over-threshold flows, and low flows, were analyzed for ten hydrological stations. The results indicate that most annual maximum flows occurred from April to July, highly attributed to the Southeast Asian summer monsoons, whereas the annual minimum flows were concentrated between January and February. As for the low flow indices （the annual minimum flow, annual minimum 7-d flow, and annual minimum 30-d flow）, a significant increasing trend was detected in most parts of the Poyang Lake Basin. The trends illustrate the potential effects of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle over the Poyang Lake Basin.展开更多
Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are anal...Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series （AM） and peak over threshold series （POT） are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme pre- cipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Gen- eralized extreme value distribution （GEV）, Generalized Pareto distribution （GP） and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.展开更多
基金Foundation： National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholar of China, No.40225004 World Bank Cooperative Project, No.THSD-7
文摘This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.
基金the Observatory for Environment Research (ORE) in the project “Experimental Tropical Watersheds” (SO BVET) funded by IRD, INSU, and OMP for making available the hydrological and climatic data of the Nyong River basin under open access
文摘Uncontrolled land use land cover change(LULCC) is impacting watershed hydrology,particularly in tropical watersheds in developing countries. We assessed the extent of LULCC in the southern portion of the Nyong River basin through analysis of three land use maps in 1987, 2000 and2014. LULCC impact on hydrological variables of the Mbalmayo, Olama, Pont So’o, Messam, and Nsimi sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin were evaluated by using the linear regression modeling and the Mann-Kendall test. This study reveals that dense forest cover decreased by16%, young secondary forest increased by 18%,agricultural/cropland increased by 10%, and built-up area/bare soil increased by 3% from 1987 to 2014.The decrease in dense forest cover at 0.6% per year on average was driven by indiscriminate expansion of subsistence agricultural/cropland through shifting and fallow cultivation farming systems. Nonsignificant trends in total discharge, high flows, and low flows were observed in the large sub-watersheds of Mbalmayo and Olama from 1998 to 2013 with LULCC within the watershed. In contrast, significant decreasing trends in stream discharge(up to-5.1%and-5.9%), and significant increasing trends in high flows(up to 2.1% and 6.3%), respectively, were observed in the small sub-watersheds of Pont So’o and Messam from 1998 to 2013, particularly with increase in agricultural/cropland cover and decrease in dense forest cover. However, we found nonsignificant trends in mean annual discharge and low flows for all and whole watershed with LULCC. The results reveal spatially varying trends of stream discharge, low flows and high flows among the subwatersheds with LULCC within the study watershed.The results suggest that the impacts of LULCC on watershed hydrology are easily detected in small subwatersheds than in large sub-watersheds. Therefore,the magnitude of dense forest cover loss must be significantly greater than 16% to cause significant changes and common trends in the hydrology of the sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin. The Mann-Kendall and Regression approaches show appreciable potential for modelling the impacts of LULCC on the hydrology of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin and for informing forest management.
基金National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406 The Key Knowledge Innovation Project of the CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-126 Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40730632
文摘The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.
文摘Long-term monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 at 17 rain stations are analyzed to explore spatio-temporal variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China, using anomaly analysis, simple linear regressive technique, Mann-Kendall trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform. The results indicate that: (1) increasing precipitation trend is observed in summer and winter, while decreasing precipitation trend is identified in spring and autumn, and the above mentioned precipitation trends are not statistically significant;(2) changing trend of the areal average annual precipitation is non-significantly increasing, and increasing trend happens in almost the whole basin except in western and south-eastern small parts;(3) the spatial distribution of the seasonal and annual precipitation anomalies between 1991-2008 and 1960-2008 is similar to that of seasonal and annual precipitation trend during 1960-2008;(4) three main time-frequency distributions are observed in annual precipitation series during 1960- 2008, and they are 18 - 26 years, 8 - 14 years and 2 - 8 years, respectively;accordingly, there are three main periods in annual precipitation series, and they are 11-year, 22-year and 5-year respectively. This result will be helpful for further research on availability, scientific management and assessment of the water resources of the Poyang Lake basin.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51379088)Application Foundation Item of Science and Technology Department of Jilin Province(Grant No.2011-05013)
文摘Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004,the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze variations in the characteristics and factors influencing runoff.Specifically,the general characteristics list as:The distribution of runoff was found to be uneven within a year,and the annual variation showed an overall decreasing trend.The abrupt change points of runoff were found to be in the early 1960s,middle 1980s and late 1990s.Multiple time scales analysis revealed three time-scale cycles,a long-term cycle of about 20-35 years with a scale center of 25 years,another cycle of about 8-15 years with a scale center of 11 years and a short-term cycle of about 5 years.Based on the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients figure of the 25-year time scale,it is preliminarily estimated that the Nen River Basin will enter a high flow period in 2013.The results obtained using various methods were consistent with each other.The physical causes of the results were also analyzed to confirm their accuracy.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41130525,41040015)
文摘Using an integrated method combining wavelet analysis and non-parameter Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin based on SPOT-VEG images from 1998 to 2008 The results indicate： （1） Vegetation cover presented marked seasonal variation during the study period, with minima around winter and maxima in summer. The detail component D5 （with semi-period of 240 days） has presented a major contribution to the intra-armual variability. Forest vegetation presents a marked decreasing trend, while alpine shrubs, meadow, typical steppe, desert steppe, and forest （meadow） steppe vegetation all show a marked increasing trend. （2） Mean vegetation amount increased from the upper to lower reaches of the basin. It is low in the Ordos Plateau and Loess Plateau, and high in the southern Loess Plateau and the lower reaches. Amplitude of the annual phenological cycle pre- sents an opposite pattern in spatial distribution with that of the mean vegetation amount. （3） Vegetation cover presented a dominant positive inter-annual change trend, which implies that the eco-environment in the region has steadily improved. Only a few areas show a negative trend, which are located in the upper reaches and the southern Loess Plateau.
基金National Basic Research Program of China, No.2005CB422006 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90202012 No.40561002
文摘Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.
文摘Hydrological events should be described through several correlated variables, so multivariate HFA has gained popularity and become an active research field during recent years. However, at present multivariate HFA mainly focuses directly on fitting the frequency distribution without confirming whether the assumptions are satisfied. Neglecting testing these assumptions could get severely wrong frequency distribution. This paper uses multivariate Mann-Kendal testing to detect the multivariate trends of annual flood peak and annual maximum 15 day volume for four control hydrological stations in the?Upper Yangtze River Basin. Results indicate that multivariate test could detect the trends of joint variables, whereas univariate tests can only detect the univariate trends. Therefore, it is recommended to jointly apply univariate and multivariate trend tests to capture all the existing trends.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (the 973 Program,Grant No.2007CB407203)the Chinese Postdoctoral Science Fund Project (Grant No. 20110490402)
文摘Extreme meteorological and hydrological events may cause major disasters and heavy social and economic losses. Therefore, more and more studies have focused on extreme hydro-meteorological events in various climates and geographic regions. Based on nearly 50 years of observed records of the Poyang Lake Basin, the occurrence and changing trends of extreme streamflow indices, including the annual maximum flow, annual peak-over-threshold flows, and low flows, were analyzed for ten hydrological stations. The results indicate that most annual maximum flows occurred from April to July, highly attributed to the Southeast Asian summer monsoons, whereas the annual minimum flows were concentrated between January and February. As for the low flow indices （the annual minimum flow, annual minimum 7-d flow, and annual minimum 30-d flow）, a significant increasing trend was detected in most parts of the Poyang Lake Basin. The trends illustrate the potential effects of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle over the Poyang Lake Basin.
基金National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071025 The meteorological data used in this study were collected from China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, which is highly appreciated.
文摘Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series （AM） and peak over threshold series （POT） are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme pre- cipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Gen- eralized extreme value distribution （GEV）, Generalized Pareto distribution （GP） and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.
