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EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONAL-COEFFICIENT REGRESSION MODELS WITH DIFFERENT SMOOTHING VARIABLES 被引量:5
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作者 张日权 李国英 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第4期989-997,共9页
In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the l... In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the local linear technique and the averaged method,the initial estimates of the coefficient functions are given.Second step,based on the initial estimates,the efficient estimates of the coefficient functions are proposed by a one-step back-fitting procedure.The efficient estimators share the same asymptotic normalities as the local linear estimators for the functional-coefficient models with a single smoothing variable in different functions.Two simulated examples show that the procedure is effective. 展开更多
关键词 Asymptotic normality averaged method different smoothing variables functional-coefficient regression models local linear method one-step back-fitting procedure
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Simple analytical model for depth-averaged velocity in meandering compound channels 被引量:3
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作者 Yuqi SHAN Chao LIU Maokang LUO 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 SCIE EI CSCD 2015年第6期707-718,共12页
A simple but applicable analytical model is presented to predict the lat- eral distribution of the depth-averaged velocity in meandering compound channels. The governing equation with curvilinear coordinates is derive... A simple but applicable analytical model is presented to predict the lat- eral distribution of the depth-averaged velocity in meandering compound channels. The governing equation with curvilinear coordinates is derived from the momentum equation and the flow continuity equation under the condition of quasi-uniform flow. A series of experiments are conducted in a large-scale meandering compound channel. Based on the experimental data, a magnitude analysis is carried out for the governing equation, and two lower-order shear stress terms are ignored. Four groups of experimental data from different sources are used to verify the predictive capability of this model, and good predictions are obtained. Finally, the determination of the velocity parameter and the limitation of this model are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 meandering compound channel simple analytical model lateral distribu-tion method physical experiment depth-averaged velocity
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Effect of radiation on compressibility of hot dense sodium and iron plasma using improved screened hydrogenic model with𝑙splitting
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作者 Amjad Ali G Shabbir Naz +4 位作者 Rukhsana Kouser Ghazala Tasneem M Saleem Shahzad Aman-ur-Rehman M H Nasim 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第3期225-236,共12页
High pressure investigations of matter involve the study of strong shock wave dynamics within the materials which gives rise to many thermal effects leading to dissociation of molecules,ionization of atoms,and radiati... High pressure investigations of matter involve the study of strong shock wave dynamics within the materials which gives rise to many thermal effects leading to dissociation of molecules,ionization of atoms,and radiation emission,etc.The response of materials experiencing a strong shock can be determined by its shock Hugoniot calculations which are frequently applied in numerical and experimental studies in inertial confinement fusion,laboratory astrophysical plasma,etc.These studies involve high energy density plasmas in which the radiation plays an important role in determining the energy deposition and maximum compressibility achieved by the shock within material.In this study,we present an investigation for the effect of radiation pressure on the maximum compressibility of the material using shock Hugoniot calculations.In shock Hugoniot calculations,an equation of state(EOS)is developed in which electronic contributions for EOS calculations are taken from an improved screened hydrogenic model with−l splitting(I-SHML)[High Energy Density Physics(2018)2648]under local thermodynamic equilibrium(LTE)conditions.The thermal ionic part calculations are adopted from the state of the art Cowan model while the cold ionic contributions are adopted from the scaled binding energy model.The Shock Hugoniot calculations are carried out for sodium and iron plasmas and our calculated results show excellent agreement with published results obtained by using either sophisticated self-consistent models or the first principle study. 展开更多
关键词 self-consistent-field methods thermodynamics of plasmas average atom model shock Hugoniot calculation
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Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration
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作者 Weipeng Zhang Dan Gu 《Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics》 2024年第6期2254-2280,共27页
In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochast... In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. . 展开更多
关键词 Epidemic model Stochastic Averaging method Singular Boundary theory Stochastic Bifurcation
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Flow and transport simulation of Madeira River using three depth-averaged two-equation turbulence closure models
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作者 Li-ren YU 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS 2012年第1期11-25,共15页
This paper describes a numerical simulation in the Amazon water system, aiming to develop a quasi-three-dimensional numerical tool for refined modeling of turbulent flow and passive transport of mass in natural waters... This paper describes a numerical simulation in the Amazon water system, aiming to develop a quasi-three-dimensional numerical tool for refined modeling of turbulent flow and passive transport of mass in natural waters. Three depth-averaged two-equation turbulence closure models, k-ε,k-w, and k-w, were used to close the non-simplified quasi-three-dimensional hydrodynamic fundamental governing equations. The discretized equations were solved with the advanced multi-grid iterative method using non-orthogonal body-fitted coarse and fine grids with collocated variable arrangement. Except for steady flow computation, the processes of contaminant inpouring and plume development at the beginning of discharge, caused by a side-discharge of a tributary, have also been numerically investigated. The three depth-averaged two-equation closure models are all suitable for modeling strong mixing turbulence. The newly established turbulence models such as the k-w model, with a higher order of magnitude of the turbulence parameter, provide a possibility for improving computational precision. 展开更多
关键词 river modeling numerical modeling contaminant transport depth-averaged turbulence models multi-grid iterative method
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Adaptive moving target detection algorithm based on Gaussian mixture model 被引量:1
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作者 杨欣 刘加 +1 位作者 费树岷 周大可 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2013年第4期379-383,共5页
In order to enhance the reliability of the moving target detection, an adaptive moving target detection algorithm based on the Gaussian mixture model is proposed. This algorithm employs Gaussian mixture distributions ... In order to enhance the reliability of the moving target detection, an adaptive moving target detection algorithm based on the Gaussian mixture model is proposed. This algorithm employs Gaussian mixture distributions in modeling the background of each pixel. As a result, the number of Gaussian distributions is not fixed but adaptively changes with the change of the pixel value frequency. The pixels of the difference image are divided into two parts according to their values. Then the two parts are separately segmented by the adaptive threshold, and finally the foreground image is obtained. The shadow elimination method based on morphological reconstruction is introduced to improve the performance of foreground image's segmentation. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can quickly and accurately build the background model and it is more robust in different real scenes. 展开更多
关键词 moving target detection Gaussian mixture model background subtraction adaptive method
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A VOF-based numerical model for breaking waves in surf zone 被引量:5
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作者 齐鹏 侯一筠 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2006年第1期57-64,共8页
This paper introduces a numerical model for studying the evolution of a periodic wave train, shoaling, and breaking in surf zone. The model can solve the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for a mean f... This paper introduces a numerical model for studying the evolution of a periodic wave train, shoaling, and breaking in surf zone. The model can solve the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for a mean flow, and the k-ε equations for turbulence kinetic energy k and turbulence dissipation rate ε. To track a free surface, the volume of fluid (VOF) function, satisfying the advection equation was introduced. In the numerical treatment, third-order upwind difference scheme was applied to the convection terms of the RANS equations in order to reduce the effect of numerical viscosity. The shoaling and breaking processes of a periodic wave train on gently sloping beaches were modeled. The computed wave heights of a sloping beach and the distribution of breaking wave pressure on a vertical wall were compared with laboratory data. 展开更多
关键词 wave breaking Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations volume of fluid method numerical model
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Multi-scale Decomposition of Co-seismic Deformation from High Resolution DEMs:a Case Study of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Earthquake 被引量:2
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作者 ZHAO Yu KONAGAI Kazuo FUJITA Fujitomo 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第4期1013-1021,共9页
Decomposing co-seismic deformation is an immediate need for researchers who are interested in earthquake inversion analysis and geo-hazard mapping. However, conventional InSAR or digital elevation models (DEMs) imag... Decomposing co-seismic deformation is an immediate need for researchers who are interested in earthquake inversion analysis and geo-hazard mapping. However, conventional InSAR or digital elevation models (DEMs) imagery analyses only provide the displacement in the Line-of-Sight (LOS) direction or elevation changes. The 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake in Japan provides lessons on how to decompose co-seismic deformation from two sets of DEMs. If three adjacent points undergo a rigid-body-translation movement, their co-seismic deformation can be decomposed by solving simultaneous equations. Although this method has been successfully used to discuss tectonic deformations, the algorithm needed improvement and a more rigorous algorithm, including a new definition of nominal plane, DEMs comparability improvement and matrix condition check is provided. Even with these procedures, the obtained decomposed displacement often showed remarkable scatter prompting the use of the moving average method, which was used to determine both tectonic and localized displacement characteristics. A cut-off window and a pair of band-pass windows were selected according to the regional geology and construction activities to ease the tectonic and localized displacement calculations, respectively. The displacement field of the tectonic scale shows two major clusters of large lateral components, and coincidently major visible landslides were found mostly within them. The localized displacement helps to reveal hidden landslides in the target area. As far as the Kizawa hamlet is concerned, the obtained vectors show down-slope movements, which are consistent with the observed traces of dislocations that were found in the Kizawa tunnel and irrigation wells. The method proposed has great potential to be applied to understanding post-earthquake rehabilitation in other areas. 展开更多
关键词 Co-seismic deformation digital elevation models DECOMPOSITION tectonic displacement localized displacement moving average method
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Precipitation Retrieval from Himawari-8 Satellite Infrared Data Based on Dictionary Learning Method and Regular Term Constraint 被引量:2
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作者 Wang Gen Ding Conghui Liu Huilan 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2019年第3期61-65,68,共6页
In this paper,the application of an algorithm for precipitation retrieval based on Himawari-8 (H8) satellite infrared data is studied.Based on GPM precipitation data and H8 Infrared spectrum channel brightness tempera... In this paper,the application of an algorithm for precipitation retrieval based on Himawari-8 (H8) satellite infrared data is studied.Based on GPM precipitation data and H8 Infrared spectrum channel brightness temperature data,corresponding "precipitation field dictionary" and "channel brightness temperature dictionary" are formed.The retrieval of precipitation field based on brightness temperature data is studied through the classification rule of k-nearest neighbor domain (KNN) and regularization constraint.Firstly,the corresponding "dictionary" is constructed according to the training sample database of the matched GPM precipitation data and H8 brightness temperature data.Secondly,according to the fact that precipitation characteristics in small organizations in different storm environments are often repeated,KNN is used to identify the spectral brightness temperature signal of "precipitation" and "non-precipitation" based on "the dictionary".Finally,the precipitation field retrieval is carried out in the precipitation signal "subspace" based on the regular term constraint method.In the process of retrieval,the contribution rate of brightness temperature retrieval of different channels was determined by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model.The preliminary experimental results based on the "quantitative" evaluation indexes show that the precipitation of H8 retrieval has a good correlation with the GPM truth value,with a small error and similar structure. 展开更多
关键词 Himawari-8(H8) RETRIEVAL of PRECIPITATION k-nearest NEIGHBOR (KNN) REGULAR TERM constraints DICTIONARY method Bayesian model average (BMA)
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Application of Weighted Average Method in Evaluation System for Rural Cadre Distance Education
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作者 DAI Li-na ZHENG Bo-wei DONG Hai-ge 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2012年第3期66-68,共3页
We elaborate the application method,process and effect of weighted average method in the examination and evaluation system for modern distance education of rural party members and cadres.The study shows that this meth... We elaborate the application method,process and effect of weighted average method in the examination and evaluation system for modern distance education of rural party members and cadres.The study shows that this method reflects the evaluation results objectively and comprehensively and plays a remarkable role in establishing and improving the examination and evaluation system,thus will have an important reference value for the development of modern distance education of rural party members and cadres in the future. 展开更多
关键词 Rural modern distance education Weighted average method Weight distribution Calculation model
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Elastic Modulus Prediction of Three-dimension-4 Directional Braided C_f/SiC Composite Based on Double-scale Model
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作者 牛序铭 SUN Zhigang +1 位作者 KONG Chunyuan 宋迎东 《Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science)》 SCIE EI CAS 2015年第3期500-508,共9页
Double-scale model for three-dimension-4 directional(3D-4d) braided C/SiC composites has been proposed to investigate its elastic properties. The double-scale model involves micro-scale that takes fiber/ matrix/poro... Double-scale model for three-dimension-4 directional(3D-4d) braided C/SiC composites has been proposed to investigate its elastic properties. The double-scale model involves micro-scale that takes fiber/ matrix/porosity in fibers tows into consideration with unit cell which considers the 3D-4d braiding structure. Micro-optical photographs of composites have been taken to study the braided structure. Then a parameterized finite element model that reflects the structure of 3D-4d braided composites is proposed. Double-scale elastic modulus prediction model is developed to predict the elastic properties of 3D-4d braided C/SiC composites. Stiffness and eompliance-averaging method and energy method are adopted to predict the elastic properties of composites. Static-tension experiments have been conducted to investigate the elastic modulus of 3D-4d braided C/SiC composites. Finally, the effect of micro-porosity in fibers tows on the elastic modulus of 3D-4d braided C/SiC composites has been studied. According to the conclusion of this thesis, elastic modulus predicted by energy method and stiffness-averaging method both find good agreement with the experimental values, when taking the micro-porosity in fibers tows into consideration. Differences between the theoretical and experimental values become smaller. 展开更多
关键词 3D-4d braided C/SiC composites double-scale model elastic modulus energy methodstiffness and compliance-averaging method porosity ratio
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基于递归贝叶斯模型过程多模式集合方法的华东2 m温度预报的应用及评估
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作者 朱月佳 关虹 +5 位作者 朱跃建 崔波 邱学兴 王东勇 柳春 邢蕊 《大气科学学报》 北大核心 2025年第6期1028-1042,共15页
为进一步提高温度业务预报水平,本文采用美国国家环境预报中心环境模式中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center,NCEP-EMC)研发的基于递归贝叶斯模型过程(recursive Bayesian model process,... 为进一步提高温度业务预报水平,本文采用美国国家环境预报中心环境模式中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center,NCEP-EMC)研发的基于递归贝叶斯模型过程(recursive Bayesian model process,RBMP)的多模式集合技术,开展了华东2 m温度预报试验。利用2016—2017年欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)、NCEP和加拿大气象中心(Canadian Meteorological Centre,CMC)3个具有代表性的全球集合预报系统产品,在对各模式进行偏差订正的基础上,开展了RBMP算法应用试验和评估,建立了华东地区应用方案,再利用2019年9月—2020年5月ECMWF、NCEP集合预报资料开展试运行,初步讨论了RBMP方法在冬春季节预报失败案例中的适用性。结果表明:RBMP方法能够提供更加可靠的概率预报分布并有效提高短期时效的预报技巧。其中,冬季改进最明显,集合平均的均方根误差比ECMWF订正预报和等权重多模式集合分别降低3.0%~10.5%和2.0%~5.0%,且对高温和低温事件均具有更优的分辨能力。此外,RBMP方法还能够提高大部分预报失败案例的预报准确率,为难报案例提供了有价值的不确定信息。总体而言,RBMP技术不仅保留了BMA(Bayesian model averaging)方法的优势,且能满足业务应用对资料存储和计算效率的需求,通过二阶矩调整可以有效校正集合离散度,为进一步提高短期温度预报技巧提供了一种思路。 展开更多
关键词 多模式集合预报 递减平均法 递归贝叶斯模型过程 二阶矩校正 预报失败案例
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基于非线性模型预测控制的拖挂车系统泊车轨迹规划方法
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作者 杨毅 贾博铂 +2 位作者 高亮 李岱伟 谢杉杉 《中国惯性技术学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期179-188,共10页
拖挂车是欠驱动与非完整约束高度耦合的非线性系统,具有状态维度高、约束复杂、内部稳定性差等特点,导致其泊车轨迹规划的求解时间长。因此,设计了一种基于非线性模型预测控制的拖挂车泊车轨迹规划方法,通过融合系统多元约束,构建优化问... 拖挂车是欠驱动与非完整约束高度耦合的非线性系统,具有状态维度高、约束复杂、内部稳定性差等特点,导致其泊车轨迹规划的求解时间长。因此,设计了一种基于非线性模型预测控制的拖挂车泊车轨迹规划方法,通过融合系统多元约束,构建优化问题,规划无碰撞的泊车轨迹。为加速优化问题的求解,首先,在系统的高维状态空间中使用结合Reed-Shepp(RS)曲线的改进快速扩展随机树(RRT*-RS)进行随机采样,以RS曲线满足反向行驶的特性,找到一条近似最优路径作为优化问题热启动的参考解。然后,在求解优化问题时,选用近似平均牛顿法以节约求解时间,提升系统实时性。最后,进行了倒库泊车、侧方泊车、多障碍物等场景实验仿真验证,仿真结果表明所提方法在不同场景下均可实现拖挂车泊车快速轨迹规划,求解时间与传统内点法和序列二次规划法相比均有40%以上的提升。 展开更多
关键词 拖挂车系统 自主泊车 轨迹规划 非线性模型预测控制 近似平均牛顿法
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货量预测与分拣人员排班问题的数学模型
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作者 晋守博 韩冉 +1 位作者 张文迪 李洋 《德州学院学报》 2025年第2期48-52,共5页
随着网购数量的增多,电商物流分拣中心对于合理安排值班人员以提高效率的诉求越来越强烈。利用时间序列预测和优化模型,研究了分拣人员的最优排班问题。首先,通过ACF(autocorrelation function)及PACF(partial autocorrelation function... 随着网购数量的增多,电商物流分拣中心对于合理安排值班人员以提高效率的诉求越来越强烈。利用时间序列预测和优化模型,研究了分拣人员的最优排班问题。首先,通过ACF(autocorrelation function)及PACF(partial autocorrelation function)图像及白噪声检验判断数据是否平稳,对于不平稳的数据进行对数、差分变换,计算处理后数据的p,q阶数,并利用ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average model)模型对未来的货量数据进行预测。然后,当分拣线路发生变化时,借助NARX(non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs)神经网络预测模型预测出新增和缺失线路分拣中心货量。研究结论指出,依据每日总包裹数量的不同可以分为三种情况,通过均分与取整运算,并利用平均筛选法给出了分拣中心人员的最优排班策略。研究结果表明通过精确的货量预测和可靠的数学模型,可以准确地求出最优的人力资源配置数量。 展开更多
关键词 货量预测 人员排班 ARIMA模型 平均筛选法
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适合西藏地区的归一化植被指数预测模型构建及验证 被引量:1
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作者 孟慧美 吴凌霄 +1 位作者 宣越健 米玛旺堆 《气候与环境研究》 北大核心 2025年第2期199-211,共13页
基于差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)方法、随机森林(RF)方法、Prophet方法构建适合西藏地区的归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)预测模型,利用羊八井地区2000~2021年MODIS遥感NDVI数据进行了验证,结果表明:该地... 基于差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)方法、随机森林(RF)方法、Prophet方法构建适合西藏地区的归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)预测模型,利用羊八井地区2000~2021年MODIS遥感NDVI数据进行了验证,结果表明:该地区植被覆盖率总体呈现不明显减少趋势;3个预测模型中,RF预测精度最高,其归一化均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差、决定系数,分别达到了6.92%、4.04%、0.9;小波变换方法能有效提高模型预测精度;组合模型可以提高预测精度,其中误差倒数权重组合模型优于平均权重和方差倒数加权组合模型。因此可以利用RF等机器学习方法结合小波变换、组合模型在西藏地区进行NDVI预测,为生态环境保护和农牧业生产决策提供科学指导。 展开更多
关键词 归一化植被指数(NDVI)预测模型 随机森林(RF)方法 差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)方法 Prophet方法 小波变换
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胶西北金矿成矿模式及找矿技术方法演变 被引量:1
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作者 冯雅杰 王永志 +4 位作者 丁正江 王斌 何云龙 安钊锋 刘得辉 《地学前缘》 北大核心 2025年第4期165-181,共17页
胶西北金矿集中区具有资源储量大,成矿类型多样的特点。近年来,随着找矿突破战略行动的深入,胶西北金矿成矿理论研究和深部找矿工作取得了巨大进展。本文系统研究胶西北金矿研究成果,深入分析区域地质背景、矿床分布规律、典型矿床特征... 胶西北金矿集中区具有资源储量大,成矿类型多样的特点。近年来,随着找矿突破战略行动的深入,胶西北金矿成矿理论研究和深部找矿工作取得了巨大进展。本文系统研究胶西北金矿研究成果,深入分析区域地质背景、矿床分布规律、典型矿床特征以及区域成矿模式,重点讨论了胶西北的金矿成矿模式。通过对主要矿床类型形成机制及差异的分析,揭示了构造活动、岩浆侵入和流体运移在成矿过程中的耦合机制。经系统梳理近年来金矿找矿技术方法方面的研究进展,本文强调了综合地质、地球物理、地球化学、遥感等技术手段在矿产预测方面作用,同时探讨了逐步演化到数据驱动找矿预测方法。针对当前胶西北金矿找矿工作面临的主要问题(如多源数据融合不足、找矿模型偏重地质调查勘探为主、智能找矿方法待加强等),提出以数据驱动等作为胶西北地区未来找矿的关键研究方向,为提高胶西北金矿找矿效率和革新找矿方法提供理论基础和研究思路。 展开更多
关键词 胶西北 地质背景 金矿 成矿模式 找矿方法
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基于U-Net语义分割网络的区域滑坡易发性评价方法和跨地区泛化能力研究 被引量:1
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作者 谭林 张璐璐 +3 位作者 魏鑫 刘东升 杜春兰 李海 《土木工程学报》 北大核心 2025年第6期103-116,共14页
基于栅格评价单元的区域滑坡易发性评价方法,存在栅格单元空间相关性考虑欠佳、模型跨地区泛化能力弱等问题,提出基于U-Net语义分割网络的易发性评价方法。以奉节县竹园镇和青莲镇为研究区,选取高程、岩性和归一化植被指数等10项评价因... 基于栅格评价单元的区域滑坡易发性评价方法,存在栅格单元空间相关性考虑欠佳、模型跨地区泛化能力弱等问题,提出基于U-Net语义分割网络的易发性评价方法。以奉节县竹园镇和青莲镇为研究区,选取高程、岩性和归一化植被指数等10项评价因子,结合历史滑坡清单,构建U-Net评价模型对滑坡易发性进行空间预测,并利用模型平均法对若干预测矩阵进行加权平均,结合ROC曲线和AUC量化评价精度和不确定性。针对跨地区地层岩性不同导致模型无法应用的问题,提出了地层岩性赋分法,将模型应用于青莲镇,研究评价模型的跨地区泛化能力。结果表明:(1)U-Net模型性能可靠,可充分挖掘栅格单元的空间相关性,网络架构更优,能够完成更精准的易发性评价。竹园镇的易发性区划图与历史滑坡清单拟合好,评价结果优于青莲镇;(2)模型平均法可有效缩减预测不确定性,只需将少量评价结果平均化即可输出稳定且可靠的评价结果,不必寻求单次评价结果最优;随着参与模型平均的评价结果数量增加,其AUC呈现收敛趋势;(3)地层岩性赋分法统一了模型训练区和测试区的数据分布,结合模型平均法确保了模型的泛化能力。 展开更多
关键词 滑坡 易发性评价 U-Net 泛化能力 模型平均法 地层岩性赋分法
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基于社会平均成本的复杂型医疗服务项目定价模型研究
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作者 李尧天 邹俐爱 +4 位作者 赵凯 潘辉 张远妮 姚奕婷 黄锦坤 《卫生经济研究》 北大核心 2025年第5期74-77,共4页
目的:分析复杂型医疗服务项目的特点,为制定科学合理的项目价格提供参考依据。方法:以社会平均成本法为基础构建复杂型医疗服务项目定价模型,选取广东省佛山市17家公立医院作为样本医院开展实证研究。结果:复杂型医疗服务项目成本以劳... 目的:分析复杂型医疗服务项目的特点,为制定科学合理的项目价格提供参考依据。方法:以社会平均成本法为基础构建复杂型医疗服务项目定价模型,选取广东省佛山市17家公立医院作为样本医院开展实证研究。结果:复杂型医疗服务项目成本以劳务成本为主,成本测算需注重人力因素;现行复杂型医疗服务项目的价格普遍低于测算成本,价格偏离程度较大。结论:以价值为导向,构建符合复杂型医疗服务项目特点的定价模型;科学测算医疗服务项目成本,为医疗机构报价提供数据基础;提高复杂型医疗服务项目价格,理顺比价关系;加强政府指导,量化具体指标。 展开更多
关键词 复杂型医疗服务项目 社会平均成本法 定价模型 公立医院
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基于不同滑坡负样本选取策略和随机森林方法的岷江上游大型滑坡易发性评价
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作者 骆飞 凌斯祥 +4 位作者 高凤欣 林祖豪 孙春卫 高芳芳 巫锡勇 《水利水电技术(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第9期42-59,共18页
【目的】依据准确的滑坡易发性结果能对滑坡危险性与风险性进行精准防控。在滑坡易发性评价中,不同滑坡负样本的选取方式是影响滑坡易发性预测精度的重要不确定因素。【方法】以四川岷江流域山区为研究区,通过遥感影像编制881个大型滑坡... 【目的】依据准确的滑坡易发性结果能对滑坡危险性与风险性进行精准防控。在滑坡易发性评价中,不同滑坡负样本的选取方式是影响滑坡易发性预测精度的重要不确定因素。【方法】以四川岷江流域山区为研究区,通过遥感影像编制881个大型滑坡(>10^(6) m^(3)),选取地形地貌、基础地质、水文地质、地质环境、地震参数与人类活动等13个滑坡评价因子,并共线性分析检验因子冗余;其次对滑坡负样本采取全区随机、坡度低于10°区域、滑坡缓冲1 km外区域、信息量法(IV)、支持向量机法(SVM)和半监督法选择出与滑坡等比例的滑坡负样本,进一步与随机森林(RF)耦合构建随机RF、低坡度RF、缓冲区RF、IV-RF、SVM-RF与半监督RF模型开展滑坡易发性区划;最后采用ROC曲线的平均AUC值对不同滑坡负样本采样模型的预测精度进行对比评价。【结果】结果显示:(1)不同滑坡负样本采样方式得到的滑坡高易发区与极高易发区均集中分布于卧龙至映秀段、棉虒至古尔沟段、黑虎至木苏段与叠溪至松潘段河谷两侧;(2)不同滑坡负样本采样方式的滑坡易发性预测精度为:半监督RF(AUC=0.971)>SVM-RF(AUC=0.954)>IV-RF(AUC=0.945)>缓冲区RF(AUC=0.902)>低坡度RF(AUC=0.895)>随机RF(AUC=0.882);(3)在低易发区选择滑坡负样本能明显提高易发性精度,低坡度RF、缓冲区RF、IV-RF、SVM-RF与半监督RF模型相较于随机RF模型,AUC值分别提高了0.013、0.02、0.063、0.072、0.089。【结论】半监督RF模型的标准差最小(0.004)且平均AUC值(0.971)最高,展现出最优稳定性与模型预测能力,表明半监督采样方法对模型的优化效果最好。研究成果可为滑坡易发性预测中滑坡负样本选择和模型构建提供参考,同时也为岷江上游流域滑坡风险与防灾减灾提供理论支撑。 展开更多
关键词 滑坡易发性预测 采样策略 随机森林 半监督法 模型平均法 岷江流域 滑坡 影响因素
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钢丝绳环双质量飞轮弹性元件非线性特性研究
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作者 龙云 王红霞 +2 位作者 赵磊 梁宏 龚青山 《机械设计》 北大核心 2025年第6期174-180,共7页
针对多项式模型参数众多且无法直观描述钢丝绳环双质量飞轮弹性元件刚度阻尼特性的问题,对多种规格的该弹性元件进行了动态加载试验,分析了各参数对其迟滞特性的影响规律。采用等效平均法对改进多项式模型进行了简化,分别用等效线性刚... 针对多项式模型参数众多且无法直观描述钢丝绳环双质量飞轮弹性元件刚度阻尼特性的问题,对多种规格的该弹性元件进行了动态加载试验,分析了各参数对其迟滞特性的影响规律。采用等效平均法对改进多项式模型进行了简化,分别用等效线性刚度和等效黏性阻尼系数描述了钢丝绳环的刚度和阻尼特性,并基于试验数据完成了模型参数识别。研究结果表明:所建立的非线性迟滞模型不仅各参数物理含义明确、易于识别,还可以清楚地反映钢丝绳环双质量飞轮弹性元件的刚度和阻尼特性。 展开更多
关键词 双质量飞轮 钢丝绳环 非线性迟滞模型 等效平均法 参数识别
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