The floor field model has been widely used in evacuation simulation research based on cellular automata model. However, conventional methods of setting floor field will lead to highly insufficient utilization of the e...The floor field model has been widely used in evacuation simulation research based on cellular automata model. However, conventional methods of setting floor field will lead to highly insufficient utilization of the exit area when people gather on one side of the exit. In this study, an extended cellular automata model with modified floor field is proposed to solve this problem. Additionally, a congestion judgment mechanism is integrated in our model, whereby people can synthetically judge the degree of congestion and distance in front of them to determine whether they need to change another exit to evacuate or not. We contrasted the simulation results of the conventional floor field model, the extended model proposed in this paper, and Pathfinder software in a same scenario. It is demonstrated that this extended model can ameliorate the problem of insufficient utilization of the exit area and the trajectory of pedestrian movement and the crowd shape of pedestrians in front of exit in this new model are more realistic than those of the other two models. The findings have implications for modeling pedestrian evacuation.展开更多
Cellular automata modeling techniques and the characteristics of mixed traffic flow were used to derive the 2-dimensional model presented here for simulation of pedestrian’s crossing dynamics. A conception of “stop...Cellular automata modeling techniques and the characteristics of mixed traffic flow were used to derive the 2-dimensional model presented here for simulation of pedestrian’s crossing dynamics. A conception of “stop point” is introduced to deal with traffic obstacles and resolve conflicts among pedestrians or between pedestrians and the other vehicles on the crosswalk. The model can be easily extended, is very efficient for simulation of pedestrian’s crossing dy- namics, can be integrated into traffic simulation software, and has been proved feasible by simulation experiments.展开更多
The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are anal...The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are analyzed. An improved CA model of two lanes one-way freeway is presented, where some vehicle accidents will occur when the necessary conditions are simultaneously satisfied. The characteristics of traffic flow under different rainfall intensities are discussed and the accident probabilities are analyzed via the simulation experiments by using variable speed limit （VSL） and incoming flow control. The results indicate that the measures are effective especially during heavy rainstorms or short-time heavy rainfall. According to different rainfall intensities, an appropriate strategy should be adopted in order to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and enhance traffic flux as well.展开更多
In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide t...In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide the susceptible population into three groups according to the immunity of each individual based on the classical susceptible-infectedremoved （SIR） epidemic models, and consider the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors that have not an incubation period to become infectious. We test the local stability and instability of the disease-free equilibrium by the spectrum radii of Jacobian. The simulation shows that the structure of the nearest neighbour size of the cell （or the degree of the scale-free networks） plays a very important role in the spread properties of infectious disease. The positive equilibrium of the infections versus the neighbour size follows the third power law if an endemic equilibrium point exists. Finally, we analyse the feature of the infection waves for the homogeneity and heterogeneous cases respectively.展开更多
In this paper, a recently introduced cellular automata （CA） model is used for a statistical analysis of the inner micro-scopic structure of synchronized traffic flow. The analysis focuses on the formation and dissol...In this paper, a recently introduced cellular automata （CA） model is used for a statistical analysis of the inner micro-scopic structure of synchronized traffic flow. The analysis focuses on the formation and dissolution of clusters or platoons of vehicles, as the mechanism that causes the presence of this synchronized traffic state with a high flow. This platoon formation is one of the most interesting phenomena observed in traffic flows and plays an important role both in manual and automated highway systems （AHS）. Simulation results, obtained from a single-lane system under periodic boundary conditions indicate that in the density region where the synchronized state is observed, most vehicles travel together in pla- toons with approximately the same speed and small spatial distances. The examination of velocity variations and individual vehicle gaps shows that the flow corresponding to the synchronized state is stable, safe and highly correlated. Moreover, results indicate that the observed platoon formation in real traffic is reproduced in simulations by the relation between vehicle headway and velocity that is embedded in the dynamics definition of the CA model.展开更多
The aim of this study is to develop two-dimensional cellular automata model of HIV infection that depicts the dynamics involved in the interactions between acquired immune system and HIV infection in the peripheral bl...The aim of this study is to develop two-dimensional cellular automata model of HIV infection that depicts the dynamics involved in the interactions between acquired immune system and HIV infection in the peripheral blood stream. The appropriate biological rules of cellular automata model have been extracted from expert knowledge and the model has been simulated with determined initial conditions. Obtained results have been validated through comparing with the accepted AIDS reference curve. The new rules and states were added to the proposed model to show the effects of applying combined antiretroviral therapy. Our results showed that by applying RTI and PI drugs with maximum drug effectiveness, comparing with cases in which no treatment was applied, the steady state concentrations of healthy (infected) CD4+T cells were increased (decreased) 53% (41%). Also, the use of cART with maximum drug effectiveness led to a 69% reduction in the steady state level of viral load. At this time, obtained results have been validated through comparing with available clinical data. Our results showed good agreement with both reference curve and the clinical data. In the second phase of this study, by applying genetic algorithms, a therapeutic schedule has been provided that its use, while maintaining the quality of the treatment, leads to a 47% reduction in both drug dosage and the side effects of antiretroviral drugs.展开更多
Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of...Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of fault structures. The results show that the heterogeneities of fault structures can influence evolution properties of the foreshock activity and rupture process, such as the mediate heterogeneous and less heterogeneous structures, which show relatively higher ASR rates and more significant seismic gaps before main shocks. Besides, stress drop distribution ranges of the foreshock events when approaching a main shock show more homogenous (narrower) than that of the foreshock events far from a main shock. So the heterogeneity of fault structures plays an important role in strong earthquake preparation processes.展开更多
In this article, we have proposed an epidemic model based on the probability cellular automata theory. The essential mathematical features are analysed with the help of stability theory. We have given an alternative m...In this article, we have proposed an epidemic model based on the probability cellular automata theory. The essential mathematical features are analysed with the help of stability theory. We have given an alternative modelling approach for the spatiotemporal system which is more realistic from the practical point of view. A discrete and spatiotemporal approach is shown by using cellular automata theory. It is interesting to note that both the size of the endemic equilibrium and the density of the individuals increase with the increase of the neighbourhood size and infection rate, but the infections decrease with the increase of the recovery rate. The stability of the system around the positive interior equilibrium has been shown by using a suitable Lyapunov function. Finally, experimental data simulation for SARS disease in China in 2003 and a brief discussion are given.展开更多
To accurately assess the safety of freeway work zones, this paper investigates the safety of vehicle lane change maneuvers with improved cellular automata model. Taking the traffic conflict and standard deviation of o...To accurately assess the safety of freeway work zones, this paper investigates the safety of vehicle lane change maneuvers with improved cellular automata model. Taking the traffic conflict and standard deviation of operating speed as the evaluation indexes, the study evaluates the freeway work zone safety. With improved deceleration probability in car-following rules and the addition of lanechanging rules under critical state, the lane-changing behavior under critical state is defined as a conflict count. Through 72 schemes of simulation runs, the possible states of the traffic flow are carefully studied. The results show that under the condition of constant saturation traffic conflict count and vehicle speed standard deviation reach their maximums when the mixed rate of heave vehicles is 40%. Meanwhile, in the case of constant heavy vehicles mix, traffic conflict count and vehicle speed standard deviation reach maximum values when saturation rate is 0.75. Integrating all simulation results, it is known the traffic safety in freeway work zones is classified into four levels： safe, relatively safe, relatively dangerous, and dangerous.展开更多
Based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg model, we propose a new cellular automata model to simulate the urban rail traffic flow under moving block system and present a new minimum instantaneous distance formula under pure mo...Based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg model, we propose a new cellular automata model to simulate the urban rail traffic flow under moving block system and present a new minimum instantaneous distance formula under pure moving block. We also analyze the characteristics of the urban rail traffic flow under the influence of train density, station dwell times, the length of train, and the train velocity. Train delays can be decreased effectively through flexible departure intervals according to the preceding train type before its departure. The results demonstrate that a suitable adjustment of the current train velocity based on the following train velocity can greatly shorten the minimum departure intervals and then increase the capacity of rail transit.展开更多
The initial corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone is studied using wire beam electrode(WBE).The electrochemical experiment results show that the WBE in the high and middle tidal zones are in the...The initial corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone is studied using wire beam electrode(WBE).The electrochemical experiment results show that the WBE in the high and middle tidal zones are in the anodic dissolution state for less time than that in the low tidal and immersion zones.The fitting results of WBE experiment provide the boundary conditions for the partitioned cellular automata(PCA)model,which is adopted to simulate the initial corrosion evolutions of steel in the tidal zone.The proposed independent variable of the electrolyte concentration(ρ),corrosion probability(P_(c)),passivation probability(P_(p)),and movement direction probability(P_(m))on the corrosion behavior of steel are studied.The calculated results demonstrate that ρ and P_(m)can well characterize the corrosion evolutions of the steel in ocean tidal zones.This model is effective in predicting the corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone.It provides a new method for predicting the corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone.展开更多
A cellular automata model to simulate penicillin fed-batch fermentation process(CAPFM)was established in this study,based on a morphologically structured dynamic penicillin production model,that is in turn based on th...A cellular automata model to simulate penicillin fed-batch fermentation process(CAPFM)was established in this study,based on a morphologically structured dynamic penicillin production model,that is in turn based on the growth mechanism of penicillin producing microorganisms and the characteristics of penicillin fed-batch fermentation.CAPFM uses the three-dimensional cellular automata as a growth space,and a Moore-type neighborhood as the cellular neighborhood.The transition rules of CAPFM are designed based on mechanical and structural kinetic models of penicillin batch-fed fermentation processes.Every cell of CAPFM represents a single or specific number of penicillin producing microorganisms,and has various state.The simulation experimental results show that CAPFM replicates the evolutionary behavior of penicillin batch-fed fermentation processes described by the structured penicillin production kinetic model accordingly.展开更多
Purpose–Freeway work zones have been traffic bottlenecks that lead to a series of problems,including long travel time,high-speed variation,driver’s dissatisfaction and traffic congestion.This research aims to develo...Purpose–Freeway work zones have been traffic bottlenecks that lead to a series of problems,including long travel time,high-speed variation,driver’s dissatisfaction and traffic congestion.This research aims to develop a collaborative component of connected and automated vehicles(CAVs)to alleviate negative effects caused by work zones.Design/methodology/approach–The proposed cooperative component is incorporated in a cellular automata model to examine how and to what scale CAVs can help in improving traffic operations.Findings–Simulation results show that,with the proposed component and penetration of CAVs,the average performances(travel time,safety and emission)can all be improved and the stochasticity of performances will be minimized too.Originality/value–To the best of the authors’knowledge,this is the first research that develops a cooperative mechanism of CAVs to improve work zone performance.展开更多
The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There i...The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.展开更多
Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and eco...Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system. A Land Use Scenario Dynamics (LUSD) model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use scenario changes in northern China in the next 20 years simulated in this paper. The basic idea of LUSD model is to simulate the land use scenario de-mands by using SD model at first, then allocate the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using CA model to satisfy the balance between land use scenario demands and supply. The application of LUSD model in northern China suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system at different scales to some extent and is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecological system. In addition, the simulated results also indicate that obvious land use changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China in the next 20 years with cultivated land and urban land being the most active land use types.展开更多
Aircraft are profitable to their owners as long as they are in the air transporting passengers to their destinations;therefore it is vital to minimize as much as possible their preparation time on the ground.In this p...Aircraft are profitable to their owners as long as they are in the air transporting passengers to their destinations;therefore it is vital to minimize as much as possible their preparation time on the ground.In this paper we simulate different boarding strategies with the help of a model based on cellular automata parallel computational tool,attempting to find the most efficient way to deliver each passenger to her/his assigned seat.Two seat arrangements are used,a small one based on Airbus A320/ Boeing 737 and a larger one based on Airbus A380/ Boeing777-300.A wide variety of parameters,including time delay for luggage storing,the frequency by which the passengers enter the plane,different walking speeds of passengers depending on sex,age and height,and the possibility of walking past their seat,are simulated in order to achieve realistic results,as well as monitor their effects on boarding time.The simulation results indicate that the boarding time can be significantly reduced by the simple grouping and prioritizing of passengers.In accordance with previous papers and the examined strategies,the outside-in and reverse pyramid boarding methods outperform all the others for both the small and large airplane seat layout.In the latter,the examined strategies are introduced for first time in an analogous way to the initial small seat arrangement of Airbus A320/ Boeing737 aircraft family.Moreover,since in real world scenarios,the compliance of all the passengers to the suggested group division and boarding strategy cannot be guaranteed,further simulations were conducted.It is clear that as the number of passengers disregarding the priority of the boarding groups increases,the time needed for the boarding to complete tends towards that of the random boarding strategy,thus minimizing the possible advantages gained by the proposed boarding strategies.展开更多
A modified cellular automata （CA） model of dynamic recrystallization （DRX） and a flow stress-based nucleation parameter identification method have been developed. In the method, the modified CA model, which takes ...A modified cellular automata （CA） model of dynamic recrystallization （DRX） and a flow stress-based nucleation parameter identification method have been developed. In the method, the modified CA model, which takes the role of deformation degree on nucleation behavior into consideration, is coupled with an adaptive response surface model （ARSM） to search for the optimum nucleation parameter. The DRX behavior of an oxygen free high conductivity （OFHC） copper with different initial grain sizes has been taken as an example to validate the model. Good agreement is found between the simulated and the experimental results, which demonstrates that the new method can effectively improve the simulation accuracy.展开更多
Background:Cellular automata(CA)-based models have been extensively used in urban sprawl modeling.Presently,most studies focused on the improvement of spatial representation in the modeling,with limited efforts for co...Background:Cellular automata(CA)-based models have been extensively used in urban sprawl modeling.Presently,most studies focused on the improvement of spatial representation in the modeling,with limited efforts for considering the temporal context of urban sprawl.In this paper,we developed a Logistic-Trend-CA model by proposing a trend-adjusted neighborhood as a weighting factor using the information of historical urban sprawl and integrating this factor in the commonly used Logistic-CA model.We applied the developed model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China and analyzed the model performance to the start year,the suitability surface,and the neighborhood size.Results:Our results indicate the proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model outperforms the traditional Logistic-CA model significantly,resulting in about 18%and 14%improvements in modeling urban sprawl at medium(1 km)and fine(30 m)resolutions,respectively.The proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model is more suitable for urban sprawl modeling over a long temporal interval than the traditional Logistic-CA model.In addition,this new model is not sensitive to the suitability surface calibrated from different periods and spaces,and its performance decreases with the increase of the neighborhood size.Conclusion:The proposed model shows potential for modeling future urban sprawl spanning a long period at regional and global scales.展开更多
This paper proposes and validates a modified cellular automata model for determining interaction rate （i.e. number of car-following/overtaking instances） using traffic flow data measured in the field. The proposed m...This paper proposes and validates a modified cellular automata model for determining interaction rate （i.e. number of car-following/overtaking instances） using traffic flow data measured in the field. The proposed model considers lateral position preference by each vehicle type and introduces a position preference parameter fl in the model which facilitates gradual drifting towards preferred position on road, even if the gap in front is sufficient. Additionally, the model also improves upon the conven- tional model by calculating safe front and back gap dynamically based on speed and deceleration properties of leader and follower vehicles. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the effect of β on vehicular interac- tions and the model was calibrated and validated using interaction rates observed in the field. Paired tests were conducted to determine the determining interaction rates validity of the model in Results of the simulations show that there is a parabolic relationship between area occupancy and interaction rate of different vehicle types. The model performed satisfactorily as the simulated interaction rate between different vehicle types were found to be statistically similar to those observed in field. Also, as expected, the interaction rate between light motor vehicles （LMVs） and heavy motor vehicles （HMVs） were found to be higher than that between LMVs and three wheelers because LMVs and HMVs share the same lane. This could not be done using conventional CA models as lateral movement rules were dictated by only speeds and gaps. So, in conventional models, the vehicles would end up in positions which are not realistic. The position preference parameter introduced in this model motivates vehicles to stay in their preferred positions. This study demonstrates the use of interaction rate as a measure to validate micro- scopic traffic flow models.展开更多
Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia,as a tropical city,has experienced a notable decline in its critical urban green infrastructure(UGI)due to rapid urbanization and haphazard development.The decrease of UGI,especially natural f...Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia,as a tropical city,has experienced a notable decline in its critical urban green infrastructure(UGI)due to rapid urbanization and haphazard development.The decrease of UGI,especially natural forest and artificial forest,may reduce the diversity of ecosystem services and the ability of Kuala Lumpur to build resilience in the future.This study analyzed land use and land cover(LULC)and UGI changes in Kuala Lumpur based on Landsat satellite images in 1990,2005,and 2021and employed the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient to assess classification accuracy.LULC was categorized into six main types:natural forest,artificial forest,grassland,water body,bare ground,and built-up area.Satellite images in 1990,2005,and 2021 showed the remarkable overall accuracy values of 91.06%,96.67%,and 98.28%,respectively,along with the significant Kappa coefficient values of 0.8997,0.9626,and 0.9512,respectively.Then,this study utilized Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model to analyze the transition of different LULC types during 1990-2005 and 1990-2021 and predict LULC types in 2050.The results showed that natural forest decreased from 15.22%to 8.20%and artificial forest reduced from 18.51%to 15.16%during 1990-2021.Reductions in natural forest and artificial forest led to alterations in urban surface water dynamics,increasing the risk of urban floods.However,grassland showed a significant increase from 7.80%to 24.30%during 1990-2021.Meanwhile,bare ground increased from 27.16%to 31.56%and built-up area increased from 30.45%to 39.90%during 1990-2005.In 2021,built-up area decreased to 35.10%and bare ground decreased to 13.08%,indicating a consistent dominance of built-up area in the central parts of Kuala Lumpur.This study highlights the importance of integrating past,current,and future LULC changes to improve urban ecosystem services in the city.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Sichuan Youth Science and Technology Innovation Research Team Project,China(Grant No.2019JDTD0017)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41702340)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(Grant No.2017ZX05013001-002).
文摘The floor field model has been widely used in evacuation simulation research based on cellular automata model. However, conventional methods of setting floor field will lead to highly insufficient utilization of the exit area when people gather on one side of the exit. In this study, an extended cellular automata model with modified floor field is proposed to solve this problem. Additionally, a congestion judgment mechanism is integrated in our model, whereby people can synthetically judge the degree of congestion and distance in front of them to determine whether they need to change another exit to evacuate or not. We contrasted the simulation results of the conventional floor field model, the extended model proposed in this paper, and Pathfinder software in a same scenario. It is demonstrated that this extended model can ameliorate the problem of insufficient utilization of the exit area and the trajectory of pedestrian movement and the crowd shape of pedestrians in front of exit in this new model are more realistic than those of the other two models. The findings have implications for modeling pedestrian evacuation.
文摘Cellular automata modeling techniques and the characteristics of mixed traffic flow were used to derive the 2-dimensional model presented here for simulation of pedestrian’s crossing dynamics. A conception of “stop point” is introduced to deal with traffic obstacles and resolve conflicts among pedestrians or between pedestrians and the other vehicles on the crosswalk. The model can be easily extended, is very efficient for simulation of pedestrian’s crossing dy- namics, can be integrated into traffic simulation software, and has been proved feasible by simulation experiments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50478088)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,China(Grant No.E2015202266)
文摘The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are analyzed. An improved CA model of two lanes one-way freeway is presented, where some vehicle accidents will occur when the necessary conditions are simultaneously satisfied. The characteristics of traffic flow under different rainfall intensities are discussed and the accident probabilities are analyzed via the simulation experiments by using variable speed limit （VSL） and incoming flow control. The results indicate that the measures are effective especially during heavy rainstorms or short-time heavy rainfall. According to different rainfall intensities, an appropriate strategy should be adopted in order to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and enhance traffic flux as well.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No 10471040）.
文摘In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide the susceptible population into three groups according to the immunity of each individual based on the classical susceptible-infectedremoved （SIR） epidemic models, and consider the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors that have not an incubation period to become infectious. We test the local stability and instability of the disease-free equilibrium by the spectrum radii of Jacobian. The simulation shows that the structure of the nearest neighbour size of the cell （or the degree of the scale-free networks） plays a very important role in the spread properties of infectious disease. The positive equilibrium of the infections versus the neighbour size follows the third power law if an endemic equilibrium point exists. Finally, we analyse the feature of the infection waves for the homogeneity and heterogeneous cases respectively.
基金Project supported by the DGAPA,UNAM(Grant No.IN104913)
文摘In this paper, a recently introduced cellular automata （CA） model is used for a statistical analysis of the inner micro-scopic structure of synchronized traffic flow. The analysis focuses on the formation and dissolution of clusters or platoons of vehicles, as the mechanism that causes the presence of this synchronized traffic state with a high flow. This platoon formation is one of the most interesting phenomena observed in traffic flows and plays an important role both in manual and automated highway systems （AHS）. Simulation results, obtained from a single-lane system under periodic boundary conditions indicate that in the density region where the synchronized state is observed, most vehicles travel together in pla- toons with approximately the same speed and small spatial distances. The examination of velocity variations and individual vehicle gaps shows that the flow corresponding to the synchronized state is stable, safe and highly correlated. Moreover, results indicate that the observed platoon formation in real traffic is reproduced in simulations by the relation between vehicle headway and velocity that is embedded in the dynamics definition of the CA model.
文摘The aim of this study is to develop two-dimensional cellular automata model of HIV infection that depicts the dynamics involved in the interactions between acquired immune system and HIV infection in the peripheral blood stream. The appropriate biological rules of cellular automata model have been extracted from expert knowledge and the model has been simulated with determined initial conditions. Obtained results have been validated through comparing with the accepted AIDS reference curve. The new rules and states were added to the proposed model to show the effects of applying combined antiretroviral therapy. Our results showed that by applying RTI and PI drugs with maximum drug effectiveness, comparing with cases in which no treatment was applied, the steady state concentrations of healthy (infected) CD4+T cells were increased (decreased) 53% (41%). Also, the use of cART with maximum drug effectiveness led to a 69% reduction in the steady state level of viral load. At this time, obtained results have been validated through comparing with available clinical data. Our results showed good agreement with both reference curve and the clinical data. In the second phase of this study, by applying genetic algorithms, a therapeutic schedule has been provided that its use, while maintaining the quality of the treatment, leads to a 47% reduction in both drug dosage and the side effects of antiretroviral drugs.
文摘Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of fault structures. The results show that the heterogeneities of fault structures can influence evolution properties of the foreshock activity and rupture process, such as the mediate heterogeneous and less heterogeneous structures, which show relatively higher ASR rates and more significant seismic gaps before main shocks. Besides, stress drop distribution ranges of the foreshock events when approaching a main shock show more homogenous (narrower) than that of the foreshock events far from a main shock. So the heterogeneity of fault structures plays an important role in strong earthquake preparation processes.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No 10471040）, the Natural Science Foundation of Shan＇xi Province, China （Grant No 2006011009）, and part of this work have been done at the time when M. Haque was visiting North University of China.
文摘In this article, we have proposed an epidemic model based on the probability cellular automata theory. The essential mathematical features are analysed with the help of stability theory. We have given an alternative modelling approach for the spatiotemporal system which is more realistic from the practical point of view. A discrete and spatiotemporal approach is shown by using cellular automata theory. It is interesting to note that both the size of the endemic equilibrium and the density of the individuals increase with the increase of the neighbourhood size and infection rate, but the infections decrease with the increase of the recovery rate. The stability of the system around the positive interior equilibrium has been shown by using a suitable Lyapunov function. Finally, experimental data simulation for SARS disease in China in 2003 and a brief discussion are given.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51208053)the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Central Colleges,Chang'an University(No.00092014G1211011,2013G1211009)
文摘To accurately assess the safety of freeway work zones, this paper investigates the safety of vehicle lane change maneuvers with improved cellular automata model. Taking the traffic conflict and standard deviation of operating speed as the evaluation indexes, the study evaluates the freeway work zone safety. With improved deceleration probability in car-following rules and the addition of lanechanging rules under critical state, the lane-changing behavior under critical state is defined as a conflict count. Through 72 schemes of simulation runs, the possible states of the traffic flow are carefully studied. The results show that under the condition of constant saturation traffic conflict count and vehicle speed standard deviation reach their maximums when the mixed rate of heave vehicles is 40%. Meanwhile, in the case of constant heavy vehicles mix, traffic conflict count and vehicle speed standard deviation reach maximum values when saturation rate is 0.75. Integrating all simulation results, it is known the traffic safety in freeway work zones is classified into four levels： safe, relatively safe, relatively dangerous, and dangerous.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2012CB725400the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 71131001-1the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety under Grant No. RCS2011ZZ003, Beijing Jiaotong University
文摘Based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg model, we propose a new cellular automata model to simulate the urban rail traffic flow under moving block system and present a new minimum instantaneous distance formula under pure moving block. We also analyze the characteristics of the urban rail traffic flow under the influence of train density, station dwell times, the length of train, and the train velocity. Train delays can be decreased effectively through flexible departure intervals according to the preceding train type before its departure. The results demonstrate that a suitable adjustment of the current train velocity based on the following train velocity can greatly shorten the minimum departure intervals and then increase the capacity of rail transit.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51879292 and 51525903)the Guangdong International Science and Technology Cooperation Programme(No.2019A050510020)the 173 Project(No.2020-JCJQ-ZD-233-03),which cooperating with Northeastern University
文摘The initial corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone is studied using wire beam electrode(WBE).The electrochemical experiment results show that the WBE in the high and middle tidal zones are in the anodic dissolution state for less time than that in the low tidal and immersion zones.The fitting results of WBE experiment provide the boundary conditions for the partitioned cellular automata(PCA)model,which is adopted to simulate the initial corrosion evolutions of steel in the tidal zone.The proposed independent variable of the electrolyte concentration(ρ),corrosion probability(P_(c)),passivation probability(P_(p)),and movement direction probability(P_(m))on the corrosion behavior of steel are studied.The calculated results demonstrate that ρ and P_(m)can well characterize the corrosion evolutions of the steel in ocean tidal zones.This model is effective in predicting the corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone.It provides a new method for predicting the corrosion evolution of marine structural steel in tidal zone.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60274060,60375017)the Key Project of Chinese Ministry of Education (No.203002)Scientific Research Common Program of Beijing Municipal Commission of Education (NO.KM200510005026).
文摘A cellular automata model to simulate penicillin fed-batch fermentation process(CAPFM)was established in this study,based on a morphologically structured dynamic penicillin production model,that is in turn based on the growth mechanism of penicillin producing microorganisms and the characteristics of penicillin fed-batch fermentation.CAPFM uses the three-dimensional cellular automata as a growth space,and a Moore-type neighborhood as the cellular neighborhood.The transition rules of CAPFM are designed based on mechanical and structural kinetic models of penicillin batch-fed fermentation processes.Every cell of CAPFM represents a single or specific number of penicillin producing microorganisms,and has various state.The simulation experimental results show that CAPFM replicates the evolutionary behavior of penicillin batch-fed fermentation processes described by the structured penicillin production kinetic model accordingly.
文摘Purpose–Freeway work zones have been traffic bottlenecks that lead to a series of problems,including long travel time,high-speed variation,driver’s dissatisfaction and traffic congestion.This research aims to develop a collaborative component of connected and automated vehicles(CAVs)to alleviate negative effects caused by work zones.Design/methodology/approach–The proposed cooperative component is incorporated in a cellular automata model to examine how and to what scale CAVs can help in improving traffic operations.Findings–Simulation results show that,with the proposed component and penetration of CAVs,the average performances(travel time,safety and emission)can all be improved and the stochasticity of performances will be minimized too.Originality/value–To the best of the authors’knowledge,this is the first research that develops a cooperative mechanism of CAVs to improve work zone performance.
基金funding enabled and organized by CAUL and its Member Institutions.
文摘The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.
基金This work was supported by the State Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.G200018604 and G1999043406-03)the Youth Teacher Foundation of Beijing Normal University of China(Grant No.10770001).
文摘Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system. A Land Use Scenario Dynamics (LUSD) model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use scenario changes in northern China in the next 20 years simulated in this paper. The basic idea of LUSD model is to simulate the land use scenario de-mands by using SD model at first, then allocate the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using CA model to satisfy the balance between land use scenario demands and supply. The application of LUSD model in northern China suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system at different scales to some extent and is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecological system. In addition, the simulated results also indicate that obvious land use changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China in the next 20 years with cultivated land and urban land being the most active land use types.
文摘Aircraft are profitable to their owners as long as they are in the air transporting passengers to their destinations;therefore it is vital to minimize as much as possible their preparation time on the ground.In this paper we simulate different boarding strategies with the help of a model based on cellular automata parallel computational tool,attempting to find the most efficient way to deliver each passenger to her/his assigned seat.Two seat arrangements are used,a small one based on Airbus A320/ Boeing 737 and a larger one based on Airbus A380/ Boeing777-300.A wide variety of parameters,including time delay for luggage storing,the frequency by which the passengers enter the plane,different walking speeds of passengers depending on sex,age and height,and the possibility of walking past their seat,are simulated in order to achieve realistic results,as well as monitor their effects on boarding time.The simulation results indicate that the boarding time can be significantly reduced by the simple grouping and prioritizing of passengers.In accordance with previous papers and the examined strategies,the outside-in and reverse pyramid boarding methods outperform all the others for both the small and large airplane seat layout.In the latter,the examined strategies are introduced for first time in an analogous way to the initial small seat arrangement of Airbus A320/ Boeing737 aircraft family.Moreover,since in real world scenarios,the compliance of all the passengers to the suggested group division and boarding strategy cannot be guaranteed,further simulations were conducted.It is clear that as the number of passengers disregarding the priority of the boarding groups increases,the time needed for the boarding to complete tends towards that of the random boarding strategy,thus minimizing the possible advantages gained by the proposed boarding strategies.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2006CB705401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51075270)the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (No.10KJD460003)
文摘A modified cellular automata （CA） model of dynamic recrystallization （DRX） and a flow stress-based nucleation parameter identification method have been developed. In the method, the modified CA model, which takes the role of deformation degree on nucleation behavior into consideration, is coupled with an adaptive response surface model （ARSM） to search for the optimum nucleation parameter. The DRX behavior of an oxygen free high conductivity （OFHC） copper with different initial grain sizes has been taken as an example to validate the model. Good agreement is found between the simulated and the experimental results, which demonstrates that the new method can effectively improve the simulation accuracy.
基金This study was supported by the National Science Foundation(CBET-1803920).
文摘Background:Cellular automata(CA)-based models have been extensively used in urban sprawl modeling.Presently,most studies focused on the improvement of spatial representation in the modeling,with limited efforts for considering the temporal context of urban sprawl.In this paper,we developed a Logistic-Trend-CA model by proposing a trend-adjusted neighborhood as a weighting factor using the information of historical urban sprawl and integrating this factor in the commonly used Logistic-CA model.We applied the developed model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China and analyzed the model performance to the start year,the suitability surface,and the neighborhood size.Results:Our results indicate the proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model outperforms the traditional Logistic-CA model significantly,resulting in about 18%and 14%improvements in modeling urban sprawl at medium(1 km)and fine(30 m)resolutions,respectively.The proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model is more suitable for urban sprawl modeling over a long temporal interval than the traditional Logistic-CA model.In addition,this new model is not sensitive to the suitability surface calibrated from different periods and spaces,and its performance decreases with the increase of the neighborhood size.Conclusion:The proposed model shows potential for modeling future urban sprawl spanning a long period at regional and global scales.
文摘This paper proposes and validates a modified cellular automata model for determining interaction rate （i.e. number of car-following/overtaking instances） using traffic flow data measured in the field. The proposed model considers lateral position preference by each vehicle type and introduces a position preference parameter fl in the model which facilitates gradual drifting towards preferred position on road, even if the gap in front is sufficient. Additionally, the model also improves upon the conven- tional model by calculating safe front and back gap dynamically based on speed and deceleration properties of leader and follower vehicles. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the effect of β on vehicular interac- tions and the model was calibrated and validated using interaction rates observed in the field. Paired tests were conducted to determine the determining interaction rates validity of the model in Results of the simulations show that there is a parabolic relationship between area occupancy and interaction rate of different vehicle types. The model performed satisfactorily as the simulated interaction rate between different vehicle types were found to be statistically similar to those observed in field. Also, as expected, the interaction rate between light motor vehicles （LMVs） and heavy motor vehicles （HMVs） were found to be higher than that between LMVs and three wheelers because LMVs and HMVs share the same lane. This could not be done using conventional CA models as lateral movement rules were dictated by only speeds and gaps. So, in conventional models, the vehicles would end up in positions which are not realistic. The position preference parameter introduced in this model motivates vehicles to stay in their preferred positions. This study demonstrates the use of interaction rate as a measure to validate micro- scopic traffic flow models.
基金supported by the Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology(MJIIT),Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
文摘Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia,as a tropical city,has experienced a notable decline in its critical urban green infrastructure(UGI)due to rapid urbanization and haphazard development.The decrease of UGI,especially natural forest and artificial forest,may reduce the diversity of ecosystem services and the ability of Kuala Lumpur to build resilience in the future.This study analyzed land use and land cover(LULC)and UGI changes in Kuala Lumpur based on Landsat satellite images in 1990,2005,and 2021and employed the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient to assess classification accuracy.LULC was categorized into six main types:natural forest,artificial forest,grassland,water body,bare ground,and built-up area.Satellite images in 1990,2005,and 2021 showed the remarkable overall accuracy values of 91.06%,96.67%,and 98.28%,respectively,along with the significant Kappa coefficient values of 0.8997,0.9626,and 0.9512,respectively.Then,this study utilized Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model to analyze the transition of different LULC types during 1990-2005 and 1990-2021 and predict LULC types in 2050.The results showed that natural forest decreased from 15.22%to 8.20%and artificial forest reduced from 18.51%to 15.16%during 1990-2021.Reductions in natural forest and artificial forest led to alterations in urban surface water dynamics,increasing the risk of urban floods.However,grassland showed a significant increase from 7.80%to 24.30%during 1990-2021.Meanwhile,bare ground increased from 27.16%to 31.56%and built-up area increased from 30.45%to 39.90%during 1990-2005.In 2021,built-up area decreased to 35.10%and bare ground decreased to 13.08%,indicating a consistent dominance of built-up area in the central parts of Kuala Lumpur.This study highlights the importance of integrating past,current,and future LULC changes to improve urban ecosystem services in the city.
