The temporal and spatial characteristics of winter snowfall in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China and its possible connection with Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern (SCAND) anomalies are exp...The temporal and spatial characteristics of winter snowfall in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China and its possible connection with Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern (SCAND) anomalies are explored based on daily meteorological data contained in the Daily Surface Climate Dataset for China (V3.0) during the period 1960–2012. Results show that winter snowfall in the YHRB exhibits consistent anomalies over the whole region for the interannual variation during 1960–2012. Further analysis suggests that winter snowfall anomalies in the YHRB are closely linked to the anomalous wintertime SCAND activity. When there is more winter snowfall in the YHRB, SCAND is usually in a positive phase, accompanied by a strengthened Urals blocking high and East Asian trough, which is conducive to strengthened cold-air activity, intensified vertical motions, and more water vapor transport in the YHRB. In contrast, less winter snowfall in the YHRB usually happens in the negative phase of SCAND. Our results provide useful information to better understand the relevant mechanism responsible for anomalous winter snowfall in this area.展开更多
The relationship between the variability of the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in winter and sea level pressure is identified through analysis of data from satellite-borne radar altimeters, togethe...The relationship between the variability of the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in winter and sea level pressure is identified through analysis of data from satellite-borne radar altimeters, together with meteorological data fields during 1993 2005. We found that both the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major teleconnection patterns of the atmospheric surface pressure fields in the Northern Hemisphere, significantly influence the GIS winter elevation change. Further, it is suggested that the NPO may affect the GIS accumulation by influencing the NAO, particularly by changing the intensity and location of the Icelandic Low.展开更多
The snow cover over the Taurus Mountains affects water supply, agriculture, and hydropower generation in the region. In this study, we analyzed the monthly Snow Cover Extent(SCE) from November to April in the Central ...The snow cover over the Taurus Mountains affects water supply, agriculture, and hydropower generation in the region. In this study, we analyzed the monthly Snow Cover Extent(SCE) from November to April in the Central Taurus Mountains(Bolkar, Aladaglar, Tahtali and Binboga Mountains) from 1981 to 2021. Linear trends of snow cover season(November to April) over the last 41 years showed decreases in SCE primarily at lower elevations. The downward trend in SCE was found to be more pronounced and statistically significant for only November and March. SCE in the Central Taurus Mountains has declined about-6.3% per decade for 2500-3000 m in November and about-6.0% per decade for 1000-1500 m and 3000+ m in March over the last 41 years. The loss of SCE has become evident since the 2000s, and the lowest negative anomalies in SCE have been observed in 2014, 2001, and 2007 in the last 41 years, which are consistent with an increase in air temperature and decreased precipitation. SCE was correlated with both mean temperature and precipitation, with temperature having a greater relative importance at all elevated gradients. Results showed that there is a strong linear relationship between SCE and the mean air temperature(r =-0.80) and precipitation(r = 0.44) for all elevated gradients during the snow season. The Arctic Oscillation(AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), and the Mediterranean Oscillation(MO) winter indices were used to explain the year-to-year variability in SCE over the Central Taurus Mountains. The results showed that the inter-annual variability observed in the winter SCE on the Central Taurus Mountains was positively correlated with the phases of the winter AO, NAO and MO, especially below 2000 m elevation.展开更多
A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Ni...A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.展开更多
Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards.However,the ...Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards.However,the drivers of fire activity and the influence of climate variability remain uncertain.Here,we show that the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)—a dominant tropical subseasonal variability—influences fire activity by modulating local fire-supporting weather through atmospheric teleconnections.Our results show that midlatitude fire emissions exhibit significant subseasonal variability,with MJO-related weather influencing the fire intensity and contributing to large fire events.MJO-related fire events account for about 10%–20%of total midlatitude fire events,suggesting that if MJO teleconnections strengthen in the future,fire emissions and associated economic losses could worsen.展开更多
In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and ...In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and SC winter rainfall （ENSO-SC rainfall） are highly correlated and intimately coupled through an anomalous high pressure over the northwestern Pacific. In mature phase, El Nifio （La Nina） events can cause more （less） rainfall over SC in winter. Due to the persistence and spring barrier of ENSO, SC winter rainfall has potential predictability of about half a year ahead with ENSO as a predictor.展开更多
The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern floo...The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)pattern.In 2015,China experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic losses.Using reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were examined.The results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/East Asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies.The combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.Consequently,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern China while more precipitation occurred in southern China.This resulted in the SF-ND event.Moreover,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.展开更多
This paper aims to demonstrate some characteristics of the 20-50 day oscillations of certain circulation systems in low latitudes during the northern summer seasons.The teleconnection between the variations of the Mas...This paper aims to demonstrate some characteristics of the 20-50 day oscillations of certain circulation systems in low latitudes during the northern summer seasons.The teleconnection between the variations of the Mascarene high and the Northwest Pacific high and its physical mechanism are studied.How the Mas- carene high plays an important role in the interaction between the atmospheric circulations of both hemispheres is discussed.展开更多
Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the...Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.展开更多
In this paper,the response of the atmospheric general circulation to winter anomalous snow cover was investigated through observations studies and model simulation. Results from the observations show that:(1)the anoma...In this paper,the response of the atmospheric general circulation to winter anomalous snow cover was investigated through observations studies and model simulation. Results from the observations show that:(1)the anomalous winter snow cover in the extratropics of Eurasian Continent bears an intimate relation to the contemporary atmospheric general circulation.The positive anomaly of winter snow cover is usually accompanied by positive atmospheric EUP teleconnection pattern and stronger East Asian winter monsoon:or vice versa. (2)The linkage between them suggests that the abnormal winter snow cover has an important impact on winter atmospheric general circulation.The anomalous snow cover pattern can lead to the anomaly of winter atmospheric EUP teleconnection pattern and thus influence East Asian Winter monsoon. With NCAR CCM2 including BATS land surface scheme,three groups of experiments were performed to examine the atmospheric response to the anomalous snow cover pattern and explore the relevant mechanism.Simulated results agree well with the observations,which testify the significant response of the atmosphere to snow cover anomaly.It is found that the radiative cooling induced by anomalous snow cover plays an important role in above processes,and the feedback of long-wave radiation can not be neglected.展开更多
The East Asian monsoon transitional zone(MTZ)is a northeast-southwest oriented belt between the wet monsoon areas and the northwestern dry areas of China with a fragile ecology and high climate sensitivity.The climate...The East Asian monsoon transitional zone(MTZ)is a northeast-southwest oriented belt between the wet monsoon areas and the northwestern dry areas of China with a fragile ecology and high climate sensitivity.The climate in the MTZ is characterized by strong instability and large variability,resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events.A number of studies have focused on the dry-wet characteristics from different perspectives,taking into account the increasing problems of water scarcity and ecological risks.This study reviews the multi-scale variations,underlying mechanisms and future projections of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ under global warming.The main findings over the last few decades are summarized as follows:1)the interannual variability of summer precipitation is under the combined impacts of oceanic forcings and internal atmospheric teleconnection patterns at mid-high latitudes;2)an interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation amount in the MTZ was observed in the late 1990s due to a Silk-Road pattern-like wave train triggered by the combined impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-like SST warming over the North Atlantic and positive-to-negative phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);3)a pronounced drying trend has been observed during 1951-2005,which is mainly attributed to human activities and internal atmospheric variability,including increased aerosols,land-use changes,thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau,and the phase shift of the PDO;and 4)the summer precipitation in the MTZ is projected to increase under global warming with considerable uncertainties mainly due to internal atmospheric variability,including the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar-Eurasian pattern.This review attempts to provide a clear and systematic picture on the distinctive changing features of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ,and to attract the interest of the scientific community in climate change over this unique“transition”domain.展开更多
Amplitude equations governing the nonlinear resonant interaction of equatorial baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves were derived by Majda and Biello and used as a model for long range interactions （teleconnections...Amplitude equations governing the nonlinear resonant interaction of equatorial baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves were derived by Majda and Biello and used as a model for long range interactions （teleconnections） between the tropical and midlatitude troposphere. An overview of that derivation is nonlinear wave theory, but not in atmospheric presented and geared to readers versed in sciences. In the course of the derivation, two other sets of asymptotic equations are presented： the long equatorial wave equations and the weakly nonlinear, long equatorial wave equations. A linear transformation recasts the amplitude equations as nonlinear and linearly coupled KdV equations governing the amplitude of two types of modes, each of which consists of a coupled tropical/midlatitude flow. In the limit of Rossby waves with equal dispersion, the transformed amplitude equations become two KdV equations coupled only through nonlinear fluxes. Four numerical integrations are presented which show （i） the interaction of two solitons, one from either mode, （ii） and （iii） the interaction of a soliton in the presence of different mean wind shears, and （iv） the interaction of two solitons mediated by the presence of a mean wind shear.展开更多
基金jointly supported by jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600702)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41625019)
文摘The temporal and spatial characteristics of winter snowfall in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China and its possible connection with Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern (SCAND) anomalies are explored based on daily meteorological data contained in the Daily Surface Climate Dataset for China (V3.0) during the period 1960–2012. Results show that winter snowfall in the YHRB exhibits consistent anomalies over the whole region for the interannual variation during 1960–2012. Further analysis suggests that winter snowfall anomalies in the YHRB are closely linked to the anomalous wintertime SCAND activity. When there is more winter snowfall in the YHRB, SCAND is usually in a positive phase, accompanied by a strengthened Urals blocking high and East Asian trough, which is conducive to strengthened cold-air activity, intensified vertical motions, and more water vapor transport in the YHRB. In contrast, less winter snowfall in the YHRB usually happens in the negative phase of SCAND. Our results provide useful information to better understand the relevant mechanism responsible for anomalous winter snowfall in this area.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q1-02)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2009CB421406) and the Nansen Scientific Society in Norway
文摘The relationship between the variability of the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in winter and sea level pressure is identified through analysis of data from satellite-borne radar altimeters, together with meteorological data fields during 1993 2005. We found that both the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major teleconnection patterns of the atmospheric surface pressure fields in the Northern Hemisphere, significantly influence the GIS winter elevation change. Further, it is suggested that the NPO may affect the GIS accumulation by influencing the NAO, particularly by changing the intensity and location of the Icelandic Low.
文摘The snow cover over the Taurus Mountains affects water supply, agriculture, and hydropower generation in the region. In this study, we analyzed the monthly Snow Cover Extent(SCE) from November to April in the Central Taurus Mountains(Bolkar, Aladaglar, Tahtali and Binboga Mountains) from 1981 to 2021. Linear trends of snow cover season(November to April) over the last 41 years showed decreases in SCE primarily at lower elevations. The downward trend in SCE was found to be more pronounced and statistically significant for only November and March. SCE in the Central Taurus Mountains has declined about-6.3% per decade for 2500-3000 m in November and about-6.0% per decade for 1000-1500 m and 3000+ m in March over the last 41 years. The loss of SCE has become evident since the 2000s, and the lowest negative anomalies in SCE have been observed in 2014, 2001, and 2007 in the last 41 years, which are consistent with an increase in air temperature and decreased precipitation. SCE was correlated with both mean temperature and precipitation, with temperature having a greater relative importance at all elevated gradients. Results showed that there is a strong linear relationship between SCE and the mean air temperature(r =-0.80) and precipitation(r = 0.44) for all elevated gradients during the snow season. The Arctic Oscillation(AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), and the Mediterranean Oscillation(MO) winter indices were used to explain the year-to-year variability in SCE over the Central Taurus Mountains. The results showed that the inter-annual variability observed in the winter SCE on the Central Taurus Mountains was positively correlated with the phases of the winter AO, NAO and MO, especially below 2000 m elevation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFCGrant No.42275061)+3 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB40000000)the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant No.LSKJ202202404)the NSFC(Grant No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.
文摘A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42088101)by a National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korean government(MSIT)(Grant Nos.RS-2024-00416848 and NRF-2022R1A2C1013296)。
文摘Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards.However,the drivers of fire activity and the influence of climate variability remain uncertain.Here,we show that the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)—a dominant tropical subseasonal variability—influences fire activity by modulating local fire-supporting weather through atmospheric teleconnections.Our results show that midlatitude fire emissions exhibit significant subseasonal variability,with MJO-related weather influencing the fire intensity and contributing to large fire events.MJO-related fire events account for about 10%–20%of total midlatitude fire events,suggesting that if MJO teleconnections strengthen in the future,fire emissions and associated economic losses could worsen.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC) (Grant Nos.40906003 and 40830106)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB 955603)
文摘In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and SC winter rainfall （ENSO-SC rainfall） are highly correlated and intimately coupled through an anomalous high pressure over the northwestern Pacific. In mature phase, El Nifio （La Nina） events can cause more （less） rainfall over SC in winter. Due to the persistence and spring barrier of ENSO, SC winter rainfall has potential predictability of about half a year ahead with ENSO as a predictor.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41991281,42130613 and 41705073)the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fundthe Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.
文摘The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)pattern.In 2015,China experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic losses.Using reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were examined.The results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/East Asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies.The combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.Consequently,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern China while more precipitation occurred in southern China.This resulted in the SF-ND event.Moreover,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.
文摘This paper aims to demonstrate some characteristics of the 20-50 day oscillations of certain circulation systems in low latitudes during the northern summer seasons.The teleconnection between the variations of the Mascarene high and the Northwest Pacific high and its physical mechanism are studied.How the Mas- carene high plays an important role in the interaction between the atmospheric circulations of both hemispheres is discussed.
基金jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number-ber 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294]the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]。
文摘Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.
基金This work is supported by"National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences-Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climate Disasters in China"G1998040901-3.
文摘In this paper,the response of the atmospheric general circulation to winter anomalous snow cover was investigated through observations studies and model simulation. Results from the observations show that:(1)the anomalous winter snow cover in the extratropics of Eurasian Continent bears an intimate relation to the contemporary atmospheric general circulation.The positive anomaly of winter snow cover is usually accompanied by positive atmospheric EUP teleconnection pattern and stronger East Asian winter monsoon:or vice versa. (2)The linkage between them suggests that the abnormal winter snow cover has an important impact on winter atmospheric general circulation.The anomalous snow cover pattern can lead to the anomaly of winter atmospheric EUP teleconnection pattern and thus influence East Asian Winter monsoon. With NCAR CCM2 including BATS land surface scheme,three groups of experiments were performed to examine the atmospheric response to the anomalous snow cover pattern and explore the relevant mechanism.Simulated results agree well with the observations,which testify the significant response of the atmosphere to snow cover anomaly.It is found that the radiative cooling induced by anomalous snow cover plays an important role in above processes,and the feedback of long-wave radiation can not be neglected.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230605 and 42205021).
文摘The East Asian monsoon transitional zone(MTZ)is a northeast-southwest oriented belt between the wet monsoon areas and the northwestern dry areas of China with a fragile ecology and high climate sensitivity.The climate in the MTZ is characterized by strong instability and large variability,resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events.A number of studies have focused on the dry-wet characteristics from different perspectives,taking into account the increasing problems of water scarcity and ecological risks.This study reviews the multi-scale variations,underlying mechanisms and future projections of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ under global warming.The main findings over the last few decades are summarized as follows:1)the interannual variability of summer precipitation is under the combined impacts of oceanic forcings and internal atmospheric teleconnection patterns at mid-high latitudes;2)an interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation amount in the MTZ was observed in the late 1990s due to a Silk-Road pattern-like wave train triggered by the combined impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-like SST warming over the North Atlantic and positive-to-negative phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);3)a pronounced drying trend has been observed during 1951-2005,which is mainly attributed to human activities and internal atmospheric variability,including increased aerosols,land-use changes,thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau,and the phase shift of the PDO;and 4)the summer precipitation in the MTZ is projected to increase under global warming with considerable uncertainties mainly due to internal atmospheric variability,including the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar-Eurasian pattern.This review attempts to provide a clear and systematic picture on the distinctive changing features of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ,and to attract the interest of the scientific community in climate change over this unique“transition”domain.
基金Project supported by the National Science Foundation (No.DMS-0604947)
文摘Amplitude equations governing the nonlinear resonant interaction of equatorial baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves were derived by Majda and Biello and used as a model for long range interactions （teleconnections） between the tropical and midlatitude troposphere. An overview of that derivation is nonlinear wave theory, but not in atmospheric presented and geared to readers versed in sciences. In the course of the derivation, two other sets of asymptotic equations are presented： the long equatorial wave equations and the weakly nonlinear, long equatorial wave equations. A linear transformation recasts the amplitude equations as nonlinear and linearly coupled KdV equations governing the amplitude of two types of modes, each of which consists of a coupled tropical/midlatitude flow. In the limit of Rossby waves with equal dispersion, the transformed amplitude equations become two KdV equations coupled only through nonlinear fluxes. Four numerical integrations are presented which show （i） the interaction of two solitons, one from either mode, （ii） and （iii） the interaction of a soliton in the presence of different mean wind shears, and （iv） the interaction of two solitons mediated by the presence of a mean wind shear.
