Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant lar...Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC)....This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC). It explains the formation mechanisms of the WNPAC and physical processes by which the WNPAC affects the rainfall in China. During the mature phase of El Nio, the convective cooling anomalies over western tropical Pacific caused by the weakened convections trigger up an atmospheric Rossby wave response, resulting in the generation of the WNPAC. The WNPAC can persist from the winter when the El Nio is in its peak to subsequent summer, which is maintained by multiple factors including the sustained presence of convective cooling anomalies and the local air-sea interaction over western tropical Pacific, and the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in tropical Indian and tropical North Atlantic. The WNPAC can influence the atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China not only simultaneously, but also in the subsequent summer after an El Nio year, leading to more rainfall over southern China. The current paper also points out that significant anomalies of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall over southern China occur in El Nio winter but not in La Nio winter, suggesting that El Nio and La Nio have an asymmetric effect. Other issues, including the impact of El Nio diversity and its impact as well as the relations of the factors affecting the persistence of the WNPAC with summer rainfall anomalies in China, are also discussed. At the end of this paper some issues calling for further investigation are discussed.展开更多
Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins ...Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins for the 21 years(1990–2010),using the daily rain gauge measurements taken in the 756 stations throughout China and the NCEP/reanalysis data for the rainyseasons(June–July)from 1990 to 2010.The major differences in the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins are as follows:for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin,the South Asia high center is located further east than normal,the blocking high over the Urals and the Sea of Okhotsk maintains,and the Meiyu front is situated near 30°N whereas for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin,the South Asia high center is further west than normal,the atmospheric circulations over the mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are of meridional distribution,and the Meiyu front is situated near 33°N.In addition,there are distinct differences in water vapor sources and associated transports between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins.The water vapor is transported by southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin whereas by southeast monsoons from the eastern and southern seas off China and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin.展开更多
Several multi-scale numerical simulation experiments were carried out using the mesoscale modeling systems MM5V3.7 and WRFV2.2 for Greater Beijing to estimate the accuracy of WRF and MM5 in simulating the characterist...Several multi-scale numerical simulation experiments were carried out using the mesoscale modeling systems MM5V3.7 and WRFV2.2 for Greater Beijing to estimate the accuracy of WRF and MM5 in simulating the characteristics and variations of mesoscale local circulation in the atmospheric boundary layer of this area. We simulated the horizontal distribution and diurnal variations of temperature and wind fields near the ground and compared them with Automatic Weather System (AWS) data collected from 19 AWS stations in Beijing. Correlation and error analyses were also made. The modeling and statistical results showed that both WRF and MM5 model the temperature field near the ground significantly better than they model the wind field. The temperature field simulated by MM5 is more coincident than that of WRF with the AWS observation records, while WRF does better than MM5 in simulating the wind field, especially under the condition of gusty wind. Neither WRF nor MM5 can capture the fine structure of urban architectural complexity, which is the main error in the wind field simulation. Both models underestimate the land surface temperature at night and overestimate the temperature during the day. All the above results are supported by statistical analysis.展开更多
The GRACE satellite mission provides a new approach for monitoring,tracking,and assessing drought conditions by detecting changes in Earth's gravitational fields and inversing signals of terrestrial water storage ...The GRACE satellite mission provides a new approach for monitoring,tracking,and assessing drought conditions by detecting changes in Earth's gravitational fields and inversing signals of terrestrial water storage anomalies.Existing studies of terrestrial water storage anomalies related droughts paid rare attention to the behind atmospheric physical mechanisms,nor quantified the risk propagation patterns between terrestrial water storage deficits and hydrological or agricultural droughts.In this study,we first extract terrestrial water storage(TWS)droughts,hydrological droughts,and agricultural droughts by using multiple variables including TWS from the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellites,runoff and soil moisture from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset.We then identify key atmospheric and oceanic oscillation indices affecting water deficits by employing machine learning technologies.We characterize the joint distributions between drought duration and severity by using the Copula function and quantify the risk propagation of hydrological and agricultural droughts to TWS droughts.The results show that:(1)From 2002 to 2021,there is a significant decrasing trend of TWS in China;the WPIO group atmospheric circulation indices(sea surface temperature index within the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean)contributes the most to TWS.Specifically,the sea surface temperature anomalies within the NINO 3.4 region as well as the Western Pacific Warm Pool area index show significantly positive correlation relationships with TWS in southern China;(2)The northwestern China,the Yangtze River basin,and the downstream of the Pearl River basin are the hotspots of TWS droughts.Besides,the hotspots of hydrological droughts locate in northwestern China and the hotspots of agricultural droughts locate in South China and eastern Tibetan Plateau;(3)The elastic coefficients of hydrological droughts propagating to TWS droughts are higher than those of agricultural droughts,indicating that the TWS droughts are more sensitive to hydrological droughts than to agricultural droughts.展开更多
Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)forecasting for East Asian atmospheric circulation poses significant challenges for conventional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Recently,deep learning(DL)models have demonstrated s...Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)forecasting for East Asian atmospheric circulation poses significant challenges for conventional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Recently,deep learning(DL)models have demonstrated significant potential in further enhancing S2S forecasts beyond the capabilities of NWP models.However,most current DLbased S2S forecasting models largely overlook the role of global predictors from multiple spheres,such as ocean,land,and atmosphere domains,that are crucial for effective S2S forecasting.In this study,we introduce EAAC-S2S,a tailored DL model for S2S forecasting of East Asian atmospheric circulation.EAAC-S2S employs the cross-attention mechanism to couple atmospheric circulations over East Asia with representative multi-sphere(i.e.,atmosphere,land,and ocean)variables,providing pentad-averaged circulation forecasts up to 12 pentads ahead throughout all seasons.Experimental results demonstrate,on the S2S time scale,that EAAC-S2S consistently outperforms the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Ensemble Prediction System by decreasing the root-mean-square error(RMSE)by3.8%and increasing the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)by 8.6%,averaged across all 17 predictands.Our system also shows good skill for examples of heatwaves and the South China Sea Subtropical High Intensity Index(SCSSHII).Moreover,quantitative interpretability analysis including multi-sphere attribution and attention visualization are conducted for the first time in a DL S2S model,where the traced predictability aligns well with prior meteorological knowledge.We hope that our results have the potential to advance research in data-driven S2S forecasting.展开更多
[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling plantho...[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.展开更多
The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,t...The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear.Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980-2020,applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations,trends,periodicity,and persistence of drought,and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity,with shorter durations and stronger intensity.Drought conditions have generally worsened(Sen’s slope=−0.146/10 yr),with notable intensification since 2005,especially in the northwestern region.Spring droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.213/10 yr)and summer droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.169/10 yr)have intensified at most stations,while autumn and winter droughts have eased.In the future,droughts are expected to alleviate overall,but summer droughts may continue to intensify.The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr,with primary periods in autumn(20 yr)and winter(20 yr)being longer than those in spring(10 yr)and summer(17 yr).Finally,droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts.The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Therefore,close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts,with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.展开更多
Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode ...Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.展开更多
The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, whic...The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, which is a satisfactory approximation to the observed troposphere and lower stratosphere standard atmosphere, is introduced into the equations of the model to permit a more accurate calculation of the vertical transport terms, especially near the tropopause; (2) The vertical levels of the model are carefully selected to guarantee a smooth dependence of layer thickness upon pressure in order to reduce the truncation error involved in the unequal interval vertical finite-differencing. For testing the model, two kinds of linear baroclinic Rossby-Haurwitz waves, one of which has a dynamically stable vertical structure and the other has a relatively unstable one, are constructed to provide initial conditions for numerical experiments. The two waves have been integrated for more than 300 days and 100 days respectively by using the model and both of them are propagating westward with almost identical phase-speed during the time period of the integrations. No obvious change of the wave patterns is found at the levels in the model's troposphere. The amplitudes of both two waves at the uppermost level, however, exhibit rather significant oscillation with time, of which the periods are exactly 20 days and 25 days espectively.The explanation of this interesting phenomena is still under investigation.展开更多
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it rea...The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.展开更多
Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of ...Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.展开更多
An analysis of time variations of the earth’s length of day (LOD) versus atmospheric geopotential height fields and lunar phase is presented. A strong correlation is found between LOD and geopotential height from whi...An analysis of time variations of the earth’s length of day (LOD) versus atmospheric geopotential height fields and lunar phase is presented. A strong correlation is found between LOD and geopotential height from which a close relationship is inferred and found between atmospheric circulation and the lunar cycle around the earth. It is found that there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day east-west oscillation in the atmospheric circulation following the lunar phase change. The lunar revolution around the earth strongly influences the atmospheric circulation. During each lunar cycle around the earth there is, on average, an alternating change of 6.8-day-decrease, 6.8-day-increase, 6.8-day-decrease and 6.8-day-increase in atmospheric zonal wind, atmospheric angular momentum and LOD. The dominant factor producing such an oscillation in atmospheric circulation is the periodic change of lunar declination during the lunar revolution around the earth. The 27.3- day and 13.6-day atmospheric oscillatory phenomenon is akin展开更多
This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring using snow water equivalent （SWE）, snow cover frequency ...This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring using snow water equivalent （SWE）, snow cover frequency （SCF）, and 500 hPa geopotential height data. It is found that the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes are stably coupled from autumn to the subsequent spring.The temporal coherence of the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes is examined.The seasonal evolution of the Eurasian circulation and SWE dominant modes exhibit good coherence, whereas the evolution of the Eurasian SCF dominant mode is incoherent during the autumn-winter transition season. This incoherence is associated with a sign-change in the SCF anomalies in Europe during the autumn-winter transition season, which is related to the wind anomalies over Europe. In addition, the surface heat budget associated with the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes is analyzed. The sensible heat flux （SHF） related to the wind-induced thermal advection dominates the surface heat budget from autumn to the subsequent spring, with the largest effect during winter. The surface net shortwave radiation is mainly modulated by snow cover rather than cloud cover, which is estimated to be as important as, or likely superior to, the SHF for the surface heat budget during spring.The NCEP-NCAR surface heat flux reanalysis data demonstrate a consistency with the SWE/SCF and air temperature observational data, indicating a good capability for snow-atmosphere interaction analysis.展开更多
An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horri...An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horrific wildfires.Here,we use observational data to find the atmospheric circulation variabilities of the North Pacific and Arctic-Pacific-Canada patterns that co-occurred with the development and mature phases of the heatwave,as well as the North America pattern,which coincided with the decaying and eastward movement of the heatwave.Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(Phase 6)are not designed to simulate a particular heatwave event like this one.Still,models show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperature in western North America in the past and future.展开更多
Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources...Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks are calculated. Anomalous circulation and the vertically integrated heat source with the vertical integrated moisture sink and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux are examined based upon monthly composites for 16 great wet-spells and 8 great dry-spells over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The wind anomaly exhibits prominent differences between the great wet-spell and the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River Valley. For the great wet-spell, the anomalous southerly from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and the anomalous northerly over North China enhanced low-level convergence toward a narrow latitudinal belt area (the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River). The southerly anomaly is connected with an anticyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at 22 degreesN, 140 degreesE and the northerly anomaly is associated with a cyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at the Japan Sea. In the upper level, the anomalous northwesterly between an anticyclonic anomalous system with the center at 23 degreesN, 105 degreesE and a cyclonic anomalous system with the center at Korea diverged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. On the contrary, for the great dry-spell, the anomalous northerly over South China and the anomalous southerly over North China diverged from the Yangtze River Valley in the low level. The former formed in the western part of a cyclonic anomalous system centered at 23 degreesN, 135 degreesE. The latter was located in the western ridge of an anticyclonic anomalous system in the northwestern Pacific. The upper troposphere showed easterly anomaly that converged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A cyclonic anomalous system in South China and an anticyclonic system centered in the Japan Sea enhanced the easterly. Large atmospheric heat source anomalies of opposite signs existed over the western Pacific - the South China Sea, with negative in the great wet-spell and positive in the great dry-spell. The analysis of heat source also revealed positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River valley. The changes of the moisture sink and OLR were correspondingly altered, implying the change of heat source anomaly is due to the latent heat releasing of convective activity. Over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau- the Bay of Bengal, the analysis of heat source shows positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell because of latent heating change. The change of divergent wind coexisted with the change of heat source. In the great wet-spell, southerly divergent wind anomaly in the low level and northerly divergent wind anomaly in high-level are seen over South China. These divergent wind anomalies are helpful to the low-level convergence anomaly and high-level divergence anomaly over the Yangtze River valley. The low-level northerly divergent wind anomaly and high-level southerly divergent wind anomaly over South China reduced the low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the Yangtze River valley during the great dry-spell.展开更多
The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data...The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to identify the spatio-temporal variability of wintertime TP snow depth.Snow depth anomalies were dominated by a monopole pattern over the TP and a dipole structure with opposite anomalies over the southeastern and northwestern TP.The atmospheric circulation conditions responsible for the interannual variability of TP snow depth were examined via regression analyses against the principal component of the most dominant EOF mode.In the upper troposphere,negative zonal wind anomalies over the TP with extensively positive anomalies to the south indicated that the southwestward shift of the westerly jet may favor the development of surface cyclones over the TP.An anomalous cyclone centered over the southeastern TP was associated with the anomalous westerly jet,which is conducive to heavier snowfall and results in positive snow depth anomalies.An anomalous cyclone was observed at 500 hPa over the TP,with an anomalous anticyclone immediately to the north,suggesting that the TP is frequently affected by surface cyclones.Regression analyses revealed that significant negative thickness anomalies exist around the TP from March to May,with a meridional dipole anomaly in March.The persistent negative anomalies due to more winter TP snow are not conducive to earlier reversal of the meridional temperature gradient,leading to a possible delay in the onset of the Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and ...This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents–Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan (Grant No. 2016YFA0600703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91744311, 41991283 and 41705058)the funding of the Jiangsu Innovation & Entrepreneurship Team。
文摘Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51979071,51779073,and 51809073)the Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.BK20180021)the National Ten Thousand Talent Program for Young Top-Notch Talents,and the Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu Province.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金supported by the National Key Project for Basic Science Development (Grant No. 2015CB453203)the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2016YFA0600602)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41661144017)
文摘This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC). It explains the formation mechanisms of the WNPAC and physical processes by which the WNPAC affects the rainfall in China. During the mature phase of El Nio, the convective cooling anomalies over western tropical Pacific caused by the weakened convections trigger up an atmospheric Rossby wave response, resulting in the generation of the WNPAC. The WNPAC can persist from the winter when the El Nio is in its peak to subsequent summer, which is maintained by multiple factors including the sustained presence of convective cooling anomalies and the local air-sea interaction over western tropical Pacific, and the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in tropical Indian and tropical North Atlantic. The WNPAC can influence the atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China not only simultaneously, but also in the subsequent summer after an El Nio year, leading to more rainfall over southern China. The current paper also points out that significant anomalies of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall over southern China occur in El Nio winter but not in La Nio winter, suggesting that El Nio and La Nio have an asymmetric effect. Other issues, including the impact of El Nio diversity and its impact as well as the relations of the factors affecting the persistence of the WNPAC with summer rainfall anomalies in China, are also discussed. At the end of this paper some issues calling for further investigation are discussed.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40775038, 40875031 & 40975036)the Foreign Professors Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 2010-c-6)
文摘Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins for the 21 years(1990–2010),using the daily rain gauge measurements taken in the 756 stations throughout China and the NCEP/reanalysis data for the rainyseasons(June–July)from 1990 to 2010.The major differences in the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins are as follows:for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin,the South Asia high center is located further east than normal,the blocking high over the Urals and the Sea of Okhotsk maintains,and the Meiyu front is situated near 30°N whereas for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin,the South Asia high center is further west than normal,the atmospheric circulations over the mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are of meridional distribution,and the Meiyu front is situated near 33°N.In addition,there are distinct differences in water vapor sources and associated transports between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins.The water vapor is transported by southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin whereas by southeast monsoons from the eastern and southern seas off China and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40875004)Urban Meteorology Scientific Research Fund Program of the Institute of Beijing Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. UMRF200702)+2 种基金Public Welfare Special Fund Program (Meteorology) of China Scientific and Technological Ministry (Grant No. GYHY200806020)National Science and Technology Sustain Program (Grant No. 2008BAC37B00)Central Public Welfare Special Fund Program for the Institute and Higher Education (Grant No. IUMKY200701)
文摘Several multi-scale numerical simulation experiments were carried out using the mesoscale modeling systems MM5V3.7 and WRFV2.2 for Greater Beijing to estimate the accuracy of WRF and MM5 in simulating the characteristics and variations of mesoscale local circulation in the atmospheric boundary layer of this area. We simulated the horizontal distribution and diurnal variations of temperature and wind fields near the ground and compared them with Automatic Weather System (AWS) data collected from 19 AWS stations in Beijing. Correlation and error analyses were also made. The modeling and statistical results showed that both WRF and MM5 model the temperature field near the ground significantly better than they model the wind field. The temperature field simulated by MM5 is more coincident than that of WRF with the AWS observation records, while WRF does better than MM5 in simulating the wind field, especially under the condition of gusty wind. Neither WRF nor MM5 can capture the fine structure of urban architectural complexity, which is the main error in the wind field simulation. Both models underestimate the land surface temperature at night and overestimate the temperature during the day. All the above results are supported by statistical analysis.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52209020)the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(Grant No.2023AFB722)。
文摘The GRACE satellite mission provides a new approach for monitoring,tracking,and assessing drought conditions by detecting changes in Earth's gravitational fields and inversing signals of terrestrial water storage anomalies.Existing studies of terrestrial water storage anomalies related droughts paid rare attention to the behind atmospheric physical mechanisms,nor quantified the risk propagation patterns between terrestrial water storage deficits and hydrological or agricultural droughts.In this study,we first extract terrestrial water storage(TWS)droughts,hydrological droughts,and agricultural droughts by using multiple variables including TWS from the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellites,runoff and soil moisture from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset.We then identify key atmospheric and oceanic oscillation indices affecting water deficits by employing machine learning technologies.We characterize the joint distributions between drought duration and severity by using the Copula function and quantify the risk propagation of hydrological and agricultural droughts to TWS droughts.The results show that:(1)From 2002 to 2021,there is a significant decrasing trend of TWS in China;the WPIO group atmospheric circulation indices(sea surface temperature index within the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean)contributes the most to TWS.Specifically,the sea surface temperature anomalies within the NINO 3.4 region as well as the Western Pacific Warm Pool area index show significantly positive correlation relationships with TWS in southern China;(2)The northwestern China,the Yangtze River basin,and the downstream of the Pearl River basin are the hotspots of TWS droughts.Besides,the hotspots of hydrological droughts locate in northwestern China and the hotspots of agricultural droughts locate in South China and eastern Tibetan Plateau;(3)The elastic coefficients of hydrological droughts propagating to TWS droughts are higher than those of agricultural droughts,indicating that the TWS droughts are more sensitive to hydrological droughts than to agricultural droughts.
基金supported in part by the Meteorological Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142211)by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608002)+4 种基金by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42075141 and 42341202)by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20230071)by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Youth(Grant No.42205191)by the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2021SHZDZX0100)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)forecasting for East Asian atmospheric circulation poses significant challenges for conventional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Recently,deep learning(DL)models have demonstrated significant potential in further enhancing S2S forecasts beyond the capabilities of NWP models.However,most current DLbased S2S forecasting models largely overlook the role of global predictors from multiple spheres,such as ocean,land,and atmosphere domains,that are crucial for effective S2S forecasting.In this study,we introduce EAAC-S2S,a tailored DL model for S2S forecasting of East Asian atmospheric circulation.EAAC-S2S employs the cross-attention mechanism to couple atmospheric circulations over East Asia with representative multi-sphere(i.e.,atmosphere,land,and ocean)variables,providing pentad-averaged circulation forecasts up to 12 pentads ahead throughout all seasons.Experimental results demonstrate,on the S2S time scale,that EAAC-S2S consistently outperforms the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Ensemble Prediction System by decreasing the root-mean-square error(RMSE)by3.8%and increasing the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)by 8.6%,averaged across all 17 predictands.Our system also shows good skill for examples of heatwaves and the South China Sea Subtropical High Intensity Index(SCSSHII).Moreover,quantitative interpretability analysis including multi-sphere attribution and attention visualization are conducted for the first time in a DL S2S model,where the traced predictability aligns well with prior meteorological knowledge.We hope that our results have the potential to advance research in data-driven S2S forecasting.
基金Supported by Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest(200903051)~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.
基金Under the auspices of the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(No.2022xjkk0600)。
文摘The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear.Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980-2020,applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations,trends,periodicity,and persistence of drought,and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity,with shorter durations and stronger intensity.Drought conditions have generally worsened(Sen’s slope=−0.146/10 yr),with notable intensification since 2005,especially in the northwestern region.Spring droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.213/10 yr)and summer droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.169/10 yr)have intensified at most stations,while autumn and winter droughts have eased.In the future,droughts are expected to alleviate overall,but summer droughts may continue to intensify.The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr,with primary periods in autumn(20 yr)and winter(20 yr)being longer than those in spring(10 yr)and summer(17 yr).Finally,droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts.The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Therefore,close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts,with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.
基金supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040900)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203).
文摘Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.
文摘The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, which is a satisfactory approximation to the observed troposphere and lower stratosphere standard atmosphere, is introduced into the equations of the model to permit a more accurate calculation of the vertical transport terms, especially near the tropopause; (2) The vertical levels of the model are carefully selected to guarantee a smooth dependence of layer thickness upon pressure in order to reduce the truncation error involved in the unequal interval vertical finite-differencing. For testing the model, two kinds of linear baroclinic Rossby-Haurwitz waves, one of which has a dynamically stable vertical structure and the other has a relatively unstable one, are constructed to provide initial conditions for numerical experiments. The two waves have been integrated for more than 300 days and 100 days respectively by using the model and both of them are propagating westward with almost identical phase-speed during the time period of the integrations. No obvious change of the wave patterns is found at the levels in the model's troposphere. The amplitudes of both two waves at the uppermost level, however, exhibit rather significant oscillation with time, of which the periods are exactly 20 days and 25 days espectively.The explanation of this interesting phenomena is still under investigation.
基金the CAS Key Project (KZCXZ-203)the NSFC Project (No. 49735160 and No.40075020)IAP Innovation Fund (No. 8-1307).
文摘The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.
基金the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40523001 and 40605022)the Chinese Acadiemy of the International Partnership Creative Group entitled"Climate System Model Development and Application Studies".
文摘Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.
文摘An analysis of time variations of the earth’s length of day (LOD) versus atmospheric geopotential height fields and lunar phase is presented. A strong correlation is found between LOD and geopotential height from which a close relationship is inferred and found between atmospheric circulation and the lunar cycle around the earth. It is found that there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day east-west oscillation in the atmospheric circulation following the lunar phase change. The lunar revolution around the earth strongly influences the atmospheric circulation. During each lunar cycle around the earth there is, on average, an alternating change of 6.8-day-decrease, 6.8-day-increase, 6.8-day-decrease and 6.8-day-increase in atmospheric zonal wind, atmospheric angular momentum and LOD. The dominant factor producing such an oscillation in atmospheric circulation is the periodic change of lunar declination during the lunar revolution around the earth. The 27.3- day and 13.6-day atmospheric oscillatory phenomenon is akin
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 4142100441210007]+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)-Peking University(PKU)Partnership Programthe Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center(AORC)and International Pacific Research Center(IPRC)at University of Hawaii
文摘This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring using snow water equivalent （SWE）, snow cover frequency （SCF）, and 500 hPa geopotential height data. It is found that the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes are stably coupled from autumn to the subsequent spring.The temporal coherence of the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes is examined.The seasonal evolution of the Eurasian circulation and SWE dominant modes exhibit good coherence, whereas the evolution of the Eurasian SCF dominant mode is incoherent during the autumn-winter transition season. This incoherence is associated with a sign-change in the SCF anomalies in Europe during the autumn-winter transition season, which is related to the wind anomalies over Europe. In addition, the surface heat budget associated with the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes is analyzed. The sensible heat flux （SHF） related to the wind-induced thermal advection dominates the surface heat budget from autumn to the subsequent spring, with the largest effect during winter. The surface net shortwave radiation is mainly modulated by snow cover rather than cloud cover, which is estimated to be as important as, or likely superior to, the SHF for the surface heat budget during spring.The NCEP-NCAR surface heat flux reanalysis data demonstrate a consistency with the SWE/SCF and air temperature observational data, indicating a good capability for snow-atmosphere interaction analysis.
基金supported by the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0306)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41731173 and 42192564)+5 种基金National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0606701)Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB42000000 and XDA20060502)Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISEE2021ZD01)Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (Grand No. LTOZZ2004)Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Programsupported by the High Performance Computing Division in the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology
文摘An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horrific wildfires.Here,we use observational data to find the atmospheric circulation variabilities of the North Pacific and Arctic-Pacific-Canada patterns that co-occurred with the development and mature phases of the heatwave,as well as the North America pattern,which coincided with the decaying and eastward movement of the heatwave.Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(Phase 6)are not designed to simulate a particular heatwave event like this one.Still,models show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperature in western North America in the past and future.
基金Supported by National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences G1998040900 Part 1 and IAPInnovation Foundation 8-1308.
文摘Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks are calculated. Anomalous circulation and the vertically integrated heat source with the vertical integrated moisture sink and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux are examined based upon monthly composites for 16 great wet-spells and 8 great dry-spells over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The wind anomaly exhibits prominent differences between the great wet-spell and the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River Valley. For the great wet-spell, the anomalous southerly from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and the anomalous northerly over North China enhanced low-level convergence toward a narrow latitudinal belt area (the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River). The southerly anomaly is connected with an anticyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at 22 degreesN, 140 degreesE and the northerly anomaly is associated with a cyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at the Japan Sea. In the upper level, the anomalous northwesterly between an anticyclonic anomalous system with the center at 23 degreesN, 105 degreesE and a cyclonic anomalous system with the center at Korea diverged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. On the contrary, for the great dry-spell, the anomalous northerly over South China and the anomalous southerly over North China diverged from the Yangtze River Valley in the low level. The former formed in the western part of a cyclonic anomalous system centered at 23 degreesN, 135 degreesE. The latter was located in the western ridge of an anticyclonic anomalous system in the northwestern Pacific. The upper troposphere showed easterly anomaly that converged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A cyclonic anomalous system in South China and an anticyclonic system centered in the Japan Sea enhanced the easterly. Large atmospheric heat source anomalies of opposite signs existed over the western Pacific - the South China Sea, with negative in the great wet-spell and positive in the great dry-spell. The analysis of heat source also revealed positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River valley. The changes of the moisture sink and OLR were correspondingly altered, implying the change of heat source anomaly is due to the latent heat releasing of convective activity. Over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau- the Bay of Bengal, the analysis of heat source shows positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell because of latent heating change. The change of divergent wind coexisted with the change of heat source. In the great wet-spell, southerly divergent wind anomaly in the low level and northerly divergent wind anomaly in high-level are seen over South China. These divergent wind anomalies are helpful to the low-level convergence anomaly and high-level divergence anomaly over the Yangtze River valley. The low-level northerly divergent wind anomaly and high-level southerly divergent wind anomaly over South China reduced the low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the Yangtze River valley during the great dry-spell.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW- Q11-04)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975052)
文摘The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to identify the spatio-temporal variability of wintertime TP snow depth.Snow depth anomalies were dominated by a monopole pattern over the TP and a dipole structure with opposite anomalies over the southeastern and northwestern TP.The atmospheric circulation conditions responsible for the interannual variability of TP snow depth were examined via regression analyses against the principal component of the most dominant EOF mode.In the upper troposphere,negative zonal wind anomalies over the TP with extensively positive anomalies to the south indicated that the southwestward shift of the westerly jet may favor the development of surface cyclones over the TP.An anomalous cyclone centered over the southeastern TP was associated with the anomalous westerly jet,which is conducive to heavier snowfall and results in positive snow depth anomalies.An anomalous cyclone was observed at 500 hPa over the TP,with an anomalous anticyclone immediately to the north,suggesting that the TP is frequently affected by surface cyclones.Regression analyses revealed that significant negative thickness anomalies exist around the TP from March to May,with a meridional dipole anomaly in March.The persistent negative anomalies due to more winter TP snow are not conducive to earlier reversal of the meridional temperature gradient,leading to a possible delay in the onset of the Asian summer monsoon.
基金supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant No.NE/M006123/1)
文摘This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents–Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.
