Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)forecasting for East Asian atmospheric circulation poses significant challenges for conventional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Recently,deep learning(DL)models have demonstrated s...Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)forecasting for East Asian atmospheric circulation poses significant challenges for conventional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Recently,deep learning(DL)models have demonstrated significant potential in further enhancing S2S forecasts beyond the capabilities of NWP models.However,most current DLbased S2S forecasting models largely overlook the role of global predictors from multiple spheres,such as ocean,land,and atmosphere domains,that are crucial for effective S2S forecasting.In this study,we introduce EAAC-S2S,a tailored DL model for S2S forecasting of East Asian atmospheric circulation.EAAC-S2S employs the cross-attention mechanism to couple atmospheric circulations over East Asia with representative multi-sphere(i.e.,atmosphere,land,and ocean)variables,providing pentad-averaged circulation forecasts up to 12 pentads ahead throughout all seasons.Experimental results demonstrate,on the S2S time scale,that EAAC-S2S consistently outperforms the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Ensemble Prediction System by decreasing the root-mean-square error(RMSE)by3.8%and increasing the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)by 8.6%,averaged across all 17 predictands.Our system also shows good skill for examples of heatwaves and the South China Sea Subtropical High Intensity Index(SCSSHII).Moreover,quantitative interpretability analysis including multi-sphere attribution and attention visualization are conducted for the first time in a DL S2S model,where the traced predictability aligns well with prior meteorological knowledge.We hope that our results have the potential to advance research in data-driven S2S forecasting.展开更多
Changes in surface temperature extremes have become a global concern.Based on the daily lowest temperature(TN)and daily highest temperature(TX)data from 2138weather stations in China from 1961 to 2020,we calculated 14...Changes in surface temperature extremes have become a global concern.Based on the daily lowest temperature(TN)and daily highest temperature(TX)data from 2138weather stations in China from 1961 to 2020,we calculated 14 extreme temperature indices to analyze the characteristics of extreme temperature events.The widespread changes observed in all extreme temperature indices suggest that China experienced significant warming during this period.Specifically,the cold extreme indices,such as cold nights,cold days,frost days,icing days,and the cold spell duration index,decreased significantly by-6.64,-2.67,-2.96,-0.97,and-1.01 days/decade,respectively.In contrast,we observed significant increases in warm extreme indices.The number of warm nights,warm days,summer days,tropical nights,and warm spell duration index increased by 8.44,5.18,2.81,2.50,and 1.66d/decade,respectively.In addition,the lowest TN,highest TN,lowest TX,and highest TX over the entire period rose by 0.47,0.22,0.26,and 0.16℃/decade,respectively.Furthermore,using Pearson's correlation and wavelet coherence analyses,this study identified a strong association between extreme temperature indices and atmospheric circulation factors,with varying correlation strengths and resonance periods across different time-frequency domains.展开更多
Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of...Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.展开更多
This article utilizes daily precipitation data from 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province spanning from 1972 to 2020,and the US NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis and ERA5 monthly average r...This article utilizes daily precipitation data from 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province spanning from 1972 to 2020,and the US NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis and ERA5 monthly average reanalysis data.The study employs techniques such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,MannKendall mutation and other methods to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation index in northern Shanxi and their correlation with atmospheric circulation.The research results show that:the absolute index,relative index,intensity index and sustained dry period index(CDD)in the continuous index appear from southwest to northeast.The spatial distribution characteristics of the central region decrease,while the continuous wet period(CWD)decreases from the central to the east and west.The three indices Rx1day,Rx5day,and CWD mutated in 1978,1975,and 1983 respectively,and other extreme precipitation indices all appeared in a sudden change from a low-value period to a high-value period occurred around 2010.In the high-value years of the summer extreme precipitation index,there is a significant negative anomaly in the height field in the mid-high latitude regions of Eurasia.Northern Shanxi is controlled by a broad low-pressure trough in the Lake Baikal area.Water vapor transported via the east,west,and south routes converges in the northern Shanxi region and encounters cold air from the north.There is a strong upward motion anomaly at 500 hPa in the troposphere,and the dynamic conditions of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence lead to more summer extreme precipitation in the northern Shanxi region.Conversely,in the low-value years of the summer extreme precipitation index,northern Shanxi is affected by a strong high-pressure ridge north of Lake Baikal.There is a downward motion anomaly at 500 hPa,and the northern Shanxi region lacks water vapor.The cold and warm air cannot converge,and both the water vapor conditions and dynamic conditions are poor,which is not conducive to the production of extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi.展开更多
The occurrence of most major basin-wide floods is closely related to persistent heavy rainfall(PHR).In June 2022,a PHR event that lasted twenty days hit the Beijiang River Basin(BRB)in South China.The record-breaking ...The occurrence of most major basin-wide floods is closely related to persistent heavy rainfall(PHR).In June 2022,a PHR event that lasted twenty days hit the Beijiang River Basin(BRB)in South China.The record-breaking rainfall led to major floods and caused tremendous losses.This study first reviews the spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation and the flooding process of this PHR event and then analyzes the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the event based on the hourly reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5).The results show that the establishment and stabilization of mid-to high-latitude blockings provided a favorable background for the“2022.06”PHR event in the BRB.The convergence of water vapor at the low level,the release of unstable energy,and the development of stronger vertical ascending movement provided the necessary dynamic conditions.The vertical circulation of water vapor was much stronger than that of climatology,while the vertical ascending movement was also more active in the BRB.The heavy rainfall belt in the BRB was formed in a region with apparently stronger divergence,which also coincided with regions of higher-than-normal updraft velocity and specific humidity.展开更多
[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling plantho...[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.展开更多
An analysis of time variations of the earth’s length of day (LOD) versus atmospheric geopotential height fields and lunar phase is presented. A strong correlation is found between LOD and geopotential height from whi...An analysis of time variations of the earth’s length of day (LOD) versus atmospheric geopotential height fields and lunar phase is presented. A strong correlation is found between LOD and geopotential height from which a close relationship is inferred and found between atmospheric circulation and the lunar cycle around the earth. It is found that there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day east-west oscillation in the atmospheric circulation following the lunar phase change. The lunar revolution around the earth strongly influences the atmospheric circulation. During each lunar cycle around the earth there is, on average, an alternating change of 6.8-day-decrease, 6.8-day-increase, 6.8-day-decrease and 6.8-day-increase in atmospheric zonal wind, atmospheric angular momentum and LOD. The dominant factor producing such an oscillation in atmospheric circulation is the periodic change of lunar declination during the lunar revolution around the earth. The 27.3- day and 13.6-day atmospheric oscillatory phenomenon is akin展开更多
This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring using snow water equivalent （SWE）, snow cover frequency ...This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring using snow water equivalent （SWE）, snow cover frequency （SCF）, and 500 hPa geopotential height data. It is found that the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes are stably coupled from autumn to the subsequent spring.The temporal coherence of the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes is examined.The seasonal evolution of the Eurasian circulation and SWE dominant modes exhibit good coherence, whereas the evolution of the Eurasian SCF dominant mode is incoherent during the autumn-winter transition season. This incoherence is associated with a sign-change in the SCF anomalies in Europe during the autumn-winter transition season, which is related to the wind anomalies over Europe. In addition, the surface heat budget associated with the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes is analyzed. The sensible heat flux （SHF） related to the wind-induced thermal advection dominates the surface heat budget from autumn to the subsequent spring, with the largest effect during winter. The surface net shortwave radiation is mainly modulated by snow cover rather than cloud cover, which is estimated to be as important as, or likely superior to, the SHF for the surface heat budget during spring.The NCEP-NCAR surface heat flux reanalysis data demonstrate a consistency with the SWE/SCF and air temperature observational data, indicating a good capability for snow-atmosphere interaction analysis.展开更多
In this study, regional persistent haze events（RPHEs） in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei（BTH） region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–201...In this study, regional persistent haze events（RPHEs） in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei（BTH） region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–2013. The formation mechanisms of the severe RPHEs were investigated with focus on the atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanisms. Results indicated that：（1） 49 RPHEs occurred during the past 34 years.（2） The severe RPHEs could be categorized into two types according to the large-scale circulation, i.e. the zonal westerly airflow（ZWA） type and the high-pressure ridge（HPR） type. When the ZWA-type RPHEs occurred, the BTH region was controlled by near zonal westerly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere.Southwesterly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere, and near-surface wind speeds were only 1–2 ms^-1. Warm and humid air originating from the northwestern Pacific was transported into the region, where the relative humidity was 70% to 80%, creating favorable moisture conditions. When the HPR-type RPHEs appeared, northwesterly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere controlled the region. Westerly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere and the moisture conditions were relatively weak.（3） Descending motion in the mid-lower troposphere caused by the above two circulation types provided a crucial dynamic mechanism for the formation of the two types of RPHEs. The descending motion contributed to a reduction in the height of the planetary boundary layer（PBL）, which generated an inversion in the lower troposphere. This inversion trapped the abundant pollution and moisture in the lower PBL, leading to high concentrations of pollutants.展开更多
Possible influences of the Barents Sea ice anomalies on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and the East China precipitation distribution in the late spring and early summer (May-June) are investigated by analyzing t...Possible influences of the Barents Sea ice anomalies on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and the East China precipitation distribution in the late spring and early summer (May-June) are investigated by analyzing the observational data and the output of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The study indicates that the sea ice condition of the Barents Sea from May to July may be interrelated with the atmospheric circulation of June. When there is more than average sea ice in the Barents Sea, the local geopotential height of the 500-hPa level will decrease, and the same height in the Lake Baikal and Okhotsk regions will increase and decrease respectively to form a wave-chain structure over North Eurasia. This kind of anomalous height pattern is beneficial to more precipitation in the south part of East China and less in the north.展开更多
An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horri...An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horrific wildfires.Here,we use observational data to find the atmospheric circulation variabilities of the North Pacific and Arctic-Pacific-Canada patterns that co-occurred with the development and mature phases of the heatwave,as well as the North America pattern,which coincided with the decaying and eastward movement of the heatwave.Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(Phase 6)are not designed to simulate a particular heatwave event like this one.Still,models show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperature in western North America in the past and future.展开更多
Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources...Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks are calculated. Anomalous circulation and the vertically integrated heat source with the vertical integrated moisture sink and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux are examined based upon monthly composites for 16 great wet-spells and 8 great dry-spells over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The wind anomaly exhibits prominent differences between the great wet-spell and the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River Valley. For the great wet-spell, the anomalous southerly from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and the anomalous northerly over North China enhanced low-level convergence toward a narrow latitudinal belt area (the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River). The southerly anomaly is connected with an anticyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at 22 degreesN, 140 degreesE and the northerly anomaly is associated with a cyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at the Japan Sea. In the upper level, the anomalous northwesterly between an anticyclonic anomalous system with the center at 23 degreesN, 105 degreesE and a cyclonic anomalous system with the center at Korea diverged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. On the contrary, for the great dry-spell, the anomalous northerly over South China and the anomalous southerly over North China diverged from the Yangtze River Valley in the low level. The former formed in the western part of a cyclonic anomalous system centered at 23 degreesN, 135 degreesE. The latter was located in the western ridge of an anticyclonic anomalous system in the northwestern Pacific. The upper troposphere showed easterly anomaly that converged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A cyclonic anomalous system in South China and an anticyclonic system centered in the Japan Sea enhanced the easterly. Large atmospheric heat source anomalies of opposite signs existed over the western Pacific - the South China Sea, with negative in the great wet-spell and positive in the great dry-spell. The analysis of heat source also revealed positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River valley. The changes of the moisture sink and OLR were correspondingly altered, implying the change of heat source anomaly is due to the latent heat releasing of convective activity. Over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau- the Bay of Bengal, the analysis of heat source shows positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell because of latent heating change. The change of divergent wind coexisted with the change of heat source. In the great wet-spell, southerly divergent wind anomaly in the low level and northerly divergent wind anomaly in high-level are seen over South China. These divergent wind anomalies are helpful to the low-level convergence anomaly and high-level divergence anomaly over the Yangtze River valley. The low-level northerly divergent wind anomaly and high-level southerly divergent wind anomaly over South China reduced the low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the Yangtze River valley during the great dry-spell.展开更多
The amount and the form of precipitation have significant effects on glacier mass balances in high al- titude mountain areas by controlling the accumulation, the ablation and the energy balance of a glacier through im...The amount and the form of precipitation have significant effects on glacier mass balances in high al- titude mountain areas by controlling the accumulation, the ablation and the energy balance of a glacier through impact on the surface albedo. The liquid precipitation has negative effects on glacier accumulation and may in- crease the ablation of surface ice through the heat input for melting. The timing and the forms of precipitation over glacierized regions depend on the weather processes both locally and regionally. Early studies showed that regional to large-scale atmospheric circulation processes play a key role in affecting the precipitation events over glaciers. This paper analyzed the relationship between the inter-annual variability of the summertime precipitation over the Tuyuksu Glacier and the atmospheric circulation types, which related to various atmospheric circulation types in the Northern Hemisphere. Results indicated that the decrease in the duration of zonal processes and the increase in the meridional northern processes were observed in the last decade. The total summer precipitation associated with these processes also increased along with an increase of summertime solid precipitation. Although the decadal fluctuation of glaciological parameters were found in dependent of the above large-scale atmospheric circulation processes, global warming was a dominant factor leading to the mass loss in the recent decades under the back- ground of the increase in precipitation over the Tuyuksu Glacier.展开更多
The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data...The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to identify the spatio-temporal variability of wintertime TP snow depth.Snow depth anomalies were dominated by a monopole pattern over the TP and a dipole structure with opposite anomalies over the southeastern and northwestern TP.The atmospheric circulation conditions responsible for the interannual variability of TP snow depth were examined via regression analyses against the principal component of the most dominant EOF mode.In the upper troposphere,negative zonal wind anomalies over the TP with extensively positive anomalies to the south indicated that the southwestward shift of the westerly jet may favor the development of surface cyclones over the TP.An anomalous cyclone centered over the southeastern TP was associated with the anomalous westerly jet,which is conducive to heavier snowfall and results in positive snow depth anomalies.An anomalous cyclone was observed at 500 hPa over the TP,with an anomalous anticyclone immediately to the north,suggesting that the TP is frequently affected by surface cyclones.Regression analyses revealed that significant negative thickness anomalies exist around the TP from March to May,with a meridional dipole anomaly in March.The persistent negative anomalies due to more winter TP snow are not conducive to earlier reversal of the meridional temperature gradient,leading to a possible delay in the onset of the Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2 （20CRv2） is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR versi...Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2 （20CRv2） is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR version 2 Reanalysis data （NCEPv2） and the Hadley Center sea-level pressure data （HadSLPv2）.The results show that SH polar High,SH subtropical High,upper level split jet,cross-equatorial flow,Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）,and the pattem of Pacific-South-America （PSA） has been effectively captured by 20CRv2 during 1979-2010,with an apparent zonal asymmetry of AAO in the austral winter （June-July-August,JJA）.The notable upward linear trend of AAO in the entire period of 1871-2010 is represented in both 20CRv2 and HadS1Pv2.The most remarkable discrepancy of the SH climate variability between 20CRv2 and HadSLPv2 occurred in 1897-1920 and was partly caused by such factors as the paucity of meteorological and oceanographic data in the SH to be assimilated,the handling of the specified sea-ice concentration in South Pole,and imperfect climate models.The consistency of these reanalysis data is increased with the use of a large amount of satellite observation and radiosonde data,particularly after 1979.展开更多
This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover(SC)in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes.The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to Novem...This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover(SC)in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes.The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to November,following the seasonal progression of the transition zones of surface air temperature(SAT).The dominant pattern of SC variability in September and October features a zonal distribution,and that in November displays an obvious west-east contrast.Surface air cooling and snowfall increase are two factors for larger SC.The relative contribution of SAT and snowfall changes to SC,however,varies with the region and depends upon the season.The downward longwave radiation and atmospheric heat advection play important roles in SAT changes.Anomalous convergence of water vapor flux contributes to enhanced snowfall.The changes in downward longwave radiation are associated with those in atmospheric water content and column thickness.Changes in snowfall and the transport of atmospheric moisture determine the atmospheric moisture content in September and October,and the snowfall appears to be a main factor for atmospheric moisture change in November.These results indicate that atmospheric circulation changes play an important role in snow variability over northern Eurasia in autumn.Overall,the coupling between autumn Eurasian snow and atmospheric circulation may not be driven by external forcing.展开更多
The effective precipitation and the frame of atmospheric circulation in the past three key periods, i.e. 30 ka BP, 18 ka BP and 6 ka BP, have been analyzed on the basis of the palaeolake status record produced by the ...The effective precipitation and the frame of atmospheric circulation in the past three key periods, i.e. 30 ka BP, 18 ka BP and 6 ka BP, have been analyzed on the basis of the palaeolake status record produced by the Chinese Lake Status Data Base. The results show that the west-central part of China was characterized by high lake-levels at 30 ka BP, resulting from strengthened southwest monsoons; whereas the high lake stand, occurring in the west-central part of China at 18 ka BP, was caused by the southward shift and the strengthening of westerlies although the high-stand distribution was reduced. Meanwhile, the east-central part of China was under the control of strong winter monsoons at 18 ka BP. The high lake-levels, which occurred in the east-central part of China at 6 ka BP, are related to the enhanced East-Asian summer monsoons; while the lowering of the lake-level in the west-central part of China at 6 ka BP was due to the northward shift and corresponding shrink of the westerlies.A comparison between the lake status and the palaeoclimate models has shown that there do exist discrepancies between the geological evidence and the model simulations. The agreement between them provides a possible mechanical explanation on the geological phenomena, but the discrepancy shows that the model needs to be revised to a great extent.展开更多
Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant lar...Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金supported in part by the Meteorological Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142211)by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608002)+4 种基金by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42075141 and 42341202)by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20230071)by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Youth(Grant No.42205191)by the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2021SHZDZX0100)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)forecasting for East Asian atmospheric circulation poses significant challenges for conventional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Recently,deep learning(DL)models have demonstrated significant potential in further enhancing S2S forecasts beyond the capabilities of NWP models.However,most current DLbased S2S forecasting models largely overlook the role of global predictors from multiple spheres,such as ocean,land,and atmosphere domains,that are crucial for effective S2S forecasting.In this study,we introduce EAAC-S2S,a tailored DL model for S2S forecasting of East Asian atmospheric circulation.EAAC-S2S employs the cross-attention mechanism to couple atmospheric circulations over East Asia with representative multi-sphere(i.e.,atmosphere,land,and ocean)variables,providing pentad-averaged circulation forecasts up to 12 pentads ahead throughout all seasons.Experimental results demonstrate,on the S2S time scale,that EAAC-S2S consistently outperforms the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Ensemble Prediction System by decreasing the root-mean-square error(RMSE)by3.8%and increasing the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)by 8.6%,averaged across all 17 predictands.Our system also shows good skill for examples of heatwaves and the South China Sea Subtropical High Intensity Index(SCSSHII).Moreover,quantitative interpretability analysis including multi-sphere attribution and attention visualization are conducted for the first time in a DL S2S model,where the traced predictability aligns well with prior meteorological knowledge.We hope that our results have the potential to advance research in data-driven S2S forecasting.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2021YFB3900900。
文摘Changes in surface temperature extremes have become a global concern.Based on the daily lowest temperature(TN)and daily highest temperature(TX)data from 2138weather stations in China from 1961 to 2020,we calculated 14 extreme temperature indices to analyze the characteristics of extreme temperature events.The widespread changes observed in all extreme temperature indices suggest that China experienced significant warming during this period.Specifically,the cold extreme indices,such as cold nights,cold days,frost days,icing days,and the cold spell duration index,decreased significantly by-6.64,-2.67,-2.96,-0.97,and-1.01 days/decade,respectively.In contrast,we observed significant increases in warm extreme indices.The number of warm nights,warm days,summer days,tropical nights,and warm spell duration index increased by 8.44,5.18,2.81,2.50,and 1.66d/decade,respectively.In addition,the lowest TN,highest TN,lowest TX,and highest TX over the entire period rose by 0.47,0.22,0.26,and 0.16℃/decade,respectively.Furthermore,using Pearson's correlation and wavelet coherence analyses,this study identified a strong association between extreme temperature indices and atmospheric circulation factors,with varying correlation strengths and resonance periods across different time-frequency domains.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52279016,51909106,51879108,42002247,41471160)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(No.2020A1515011038,2020A1515111054)+1 种基金Special Fund for Science and Technology Development in 2016 of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province,China(No.2016A020223007)the Project of Jinan Science and Technology Bureau(No.2021GXRC070)。
文摘Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41575091)China Meteorological Administration Training Centre scientific research project (Study on impacting factors of regional climate in China)+1 种基金Shanxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau project (SXKMSQH20236329)Heze University Research Fund Program (Poverty Alleviation Project) (XY18FP08)
文摘This article utilizes daily precipitation data from 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province spanning from 1972 to 2020,and the US NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis and ERA5 monthly average reanalysis data.The study employs techniques such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,MannKendall mutation and other methods to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation index in northern Shanxi and their correlation with atmospheric circulation.The research results show that:the absolute index,relative index,intensity index and sustained dry period index(CDD)in the continuous index appear from southwest to northeast.The spatial distribution characteristics of the central region decrease,while the continuous wet period(CWD)decreases from the central to the east and west.The three indices Rx1day,Rx5day,and CWD mutated in 1978,1975,and 1983 respectively,and other extreme precipitation indices all appeared in a sudden change from a low-value period to a high-value period occurred around 2010.In the high-value years of the summer extreme precipitation index,there is a significant negative anomaly in the height field in the mid-high latitude regions of Eurasia.Northern Shanxi is controlled by a broad low-pressure trough in the Lake Baikal area.Water vapor transported via the east,west,and south routes converges in the northern Shanxi region and encounters cold air from the north.There is a strong upward motion anomaly at 500 hPa in the troposphere,and the dynamic conditions of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence lead to more summer extreme precipitation in the northern Shanxi region.Conversely,in the low-value years of the summer extreme precipitation index,northern Shanxi is affected by a strong high-pressure ridge north of Lake Baikal.There is a downward motion anomaly at 500 hPa,and the northern Shanxi region lacks water vapor.The cold and warm air cannot converge,and both the water vapor conditions and dynamic conditions are poor,which is not conducive to the production of extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2142205)Science and Technology Research Project of the Guangdong Meteorological Service(GRMC2021M13,GRMC2023M11)。
文摘The occurrence of most major basin-wide floods is closely related to persistent heavy rainfall(PHR).In June 2022,a PHR event that lasted twenty days hit the Beijiang River Basin(BRB)in South China.The record-breaking rainfall led to major floods and caused tremendous losses.This study first reviews the spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation and the flooding process of this PHR event and then analyzes the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the event based on the hourly reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5).The results show that the establishment and stabilization of mid-to high-latitude blockings provided a favorable background for the“2022.06”PHR event in the BRB.The convergence of water vapor at the low level,the release of unstable energy,and the development of stronger vertical ascending movement provided the necessary dynamic conditions.The vertical circulation of water vapor was much stronger than that of climatology,while the vertical ascending movement was also more active in the BRB.The heavy rainfall belt in the BRB was formed in a region with apparently stronger divergence,which also coincided with regions of higher-than-normal updraft velocity and specific humidity.
基金Supported by Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest(200903051)~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.
文摘An analysis of time variations of the earth’s length of day (LOD) versus atmospheric geopotential height fields and lunar phase is presented. A strong correlation is found between LOD and geopotential height from which a close relationship is inferred and found between atmospheric circulation and the lunar cycle around the earth. It is found that there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day east-west oscillation in the atmospheric circulation following the lunar phase change. The lunar revolution around the earth strongly influences the atmospheric circulation. During each lunar cycle around the earth there is, on average, an alternating change of 6.8-day-decrease, 6.8-day-increase, 6.8-day-decrease and 6.8-day-increase in atmospheric zonal wind, atmospheric angular momentum and LOD. The dominant factor producing such an oscillation in atmospheric circulation is the periodic change of lunar declination during the lunar revolution around the earth. The 27.3- day and 13.6-day atmospheric oscillatory phenomenon is akin
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 4142100441210007]+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)-Peking University(PKU)Partnership Programthe Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center(AORC)and International Pacific Research Center(IPRC)at University of Hawaii
文摘This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring using snow water equivalent （SWE）, snow cover frequency （SCF）, and 500 hPa geopotential height data. It is found that the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes are stably coupled from autumn to the subsequent spring.The temporal coherence of the seasonal evolution of the dominant modes is examined.The seasonal evolution of the Eurasian circulation and SWE dominant modes exhibit good coherence, whereas the evolution of the Eurasian SCF dominant mode is incoherent during the autumn-winter transition season. This incoherence is associated with a sign-change in the SCF anomalies in Europe during the autumn-winter transition season, which is related to the wind anomalies over Europe. In addition, the surface heat budget associated with the Eurasian SWE/SCF and circulation dominant modes is analyzed. The sensible heat flux （SHF） related to the wind-induced thermal advection dominates the surface heat budget from autumn to the subsequent spring, with the largest effect during winter. The surface net shortwave radiation is mainly modulated by snow cover rather than cloud cover, which is estimated to be as important as, or likely superior to, the SHF for the surface heat budget during spring.The NCEP-NCAR surface heat flux reanalysis data demonstrate a consistency with the SWE/SCF and air temperature observational data, indicating a good capability for snow-atmosphere interaction analysis.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51979071,51779073,and 51809073)the Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.BK20180021)the National Ten Thousand Talent Program for Young Top-Notch Talents,and the Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu Province.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant No.2013CB430202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41401056)+1 种基金the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(Grant No.GYHY201406001)the Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYLX15 0858)
文摘In this study, regional persistent haze events（RPHEs） in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei（BTH） region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–2013. The formation mechanisms of the severe RPHEs were investigated with focus on the atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanisms. Results indicated that：（1） 49 RPHEs occurred during the past 34 years.（2） The severe RPHEs could be categorized into two types according to the large-scale circulation, i.e. the zonal westerly airflow（ZWA） type and the high-pressure ridge（HPR） type. When the ZWA-type RPHEs occurred, the BTH region was controlled by near zonal westerly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere.Southwesterly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere, and near-surface wind speeds were only 1–2 ms^-1. Warm and humid air originating from the northwestern Pacific was transported into the region, where the relative humidity was 70% to 80%, creating favorable moisture conditions. When the HPR-type RPHEs appeared, northwesterly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere controlled the region. Westerly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere and the moisture conditions were relatively weak.（3） Descending motion in the mid-lower troposphere caused by the above two circulation types provided a crucial dynamic mechanism for the formation of the two types of RPHEs. The descending motion contributed to a reduction in the height of the planetary boundary layer（PBL）, which generated an inversion in the lower troposphere. This inversion trapped the abundant pollution and moisture in the lower PBL, leading to high concentrations of pollutants.
基金This study was supported jointly by the Project ZKCX2-SW-210the"National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences of China"(G1998040900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40135020.
文摘Possible influences of the Barents Sea ice anomalies on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and the East China precipitation distribution in the late spring and early summer (May-June) are investigated by analyzing the observational data and the output of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The study indicates that the sea ice condition of the Barents Sea from May to July may be interrelated with the atmospheric circulation of June. When there is more than average sea ice in the Barents Sea, the local geopotential height of the 500-hPa level will decrease, and the same height in the Lake Baikal and Okhotsk regions will increase and decrease respectively to form a wave-chain structure over North Eurasia. This kind of anomalous height pattern is beneficial to more precipitation in the south part of East China and less in the north.
基金supported by the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0306)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41731173 and 42192564)+5 种基金National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0606701)Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB42000000 and XDA20060502)Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISEE2021ZD01)Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (Grand No. LTOZZ2004)Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Programsupported by the High Performance Computing Division in the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology
文摘An extraordinary and unprecedented heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horrific wildfires.Here,we use observational data to find the atmospheric circulation variabilities of the North Pacific and Arctic-Pacific-Canada patterns that co-occurred with the development and mature phases of the heatwave,as well as the North America pattern,which coincided with the decaying and eastward movement of the heatwave.Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(Phase 6)are not designed to simulate a particular heatwave event like this one.Still,models show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperature in western North America in the past and future.
基金Supported by National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences G1998040900 Part 1 and IAPInnovation Foundation 8-1308.
文摘Using the summer (June to August) monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1997, atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks are calculated. Anomalous circulation and the vertically integrated heat source with the vertical integrated moisture sink and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux are examined based upon monthly composites for 16 great wet-spells and 8 great dry-spells over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The wind anomaly exhibits prominent differences between the great wet-spell and the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River Valley. For the great wet-spell, the anomalous southerly from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and the anomalous northerly over North China enhanced low-level convergence toward a narrow latitudinal belt area (the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River). The southerly anomaly is connected with an anticyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at 22 degreesN, 140 degreesE and the northerly anomaly is associated with a cyclonic anomalous circulation system centered at the Japan Sea. In the upper level, the anomalous northwesterly between an anticyclonic anomalous system with the center at 23 degreesN, 105 degreesE and a cyclonic anomalous system with the center at Korea diverged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. On the contrary, for the great dry-spell, the anomalous northerly over South China and the anomalous southerly over North China diverged from the Yangtze River Valley in the low level. The former formed in the western part of a cyclonic anomalous system centered at 23 degreesN, 135 degreesE. The latter was located in the western ridge of an anticyclonic anomalous system in the northwestern Pacific. The upper troposphere showed easterly anomaly that converged over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A cyclonic anomalous system in South China and an anticyclonic system centered in the Japan Sea enhanced the easterly. Large atmospheric heat source anomalies of opposite signs existed over the western Pacific - the South China Sea, with negative in the great wet-spell and positive in the great dry-spell. The analysis of heat source also revealed positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell over the Yangtze River valley. The changes of the moisture sink and OLR were correspondingly altered, implying the change of heat source anomaly is due to the latent heat releasing of convective activity. Over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau- the Bay of Bengal, the analysis of heat source shows positive anomalous heat sources during the great wet-spell and negative anomalous heat sources during the great dry-spell because of latent heating change. The change of divergent wind coexisted with the change of heat source. In the great wet-spell, southerly divergent wind anomaly in the low level and northerly divergent wind anomaly in high-level are seen over South China. These divergent wind anomalies are helpful to the low-level convergence anomaly and high-level divergence anomaly over the Yangtze River valley. The low-level northerly divergent wind anomaly and high-level southerly divergent wind anomaly over South China reduced the low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the Yangtze River valley during the great dry-spell.
基金funded by International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2010DFA92720-23, 2012BAC19B07)Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-GJ04)carried out by the Institute of Geography,Republic of Kazakhstan with the support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Kazakhstan
文摘The amount and the form of precipitation have significant effects on glacier mass balances in high al- titude mountain areas by controlling the accumulation, the ablation and the energy balance of a glacier through impact on the surface albedo. The liquid precipitation has negative effects on glacier accumulation and may in- crease the ablation of surface ice through the heat input for melting. The timing and the forms of precipitation over glacierized regions depend on the weather processes both locally and regionally. Early studies showed that regional to large-scale atmospheric circulation processes play a key role in affecting the precipitation events over glaciers. This paper analyzed the relationship between the inter-annual variability of the summertime precipitation over the Tuyuksu Glacier and the atmospheric circulation types, which related to various atmospheric circulation types in the Northern Hemisphere. Results indicated that the decrease in the duration of zonal processes and the increase in the meridional northern processes were observed in the last decade. The total summer precipitation associated with these processes also increased along with an increase of summertime solid precipitation. Although the decadal fluctuation of glaciological parameters were found in dependent of the above large-scale atmospheric circulation processes, global warming was a dominant factor leading to the mass loss in the recent decades under the back- ground of the increase in precipitation over the Tuyuksu Glacier.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW- Q11-04)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975052)
文摘The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to identify the spatio-temporal variability of wintertime TP snow depth.Snow depth anomalies were dominated by a monopole pattern over the TP and a dipole structure with opposite anomalies over the southeastern and northwestern TP.The atmospheric circulation conditions responsible for the interannual variability of TP snow depth were examined via regression analyses against the principal component of the most dominant EOF mode.In the upper troposphere,negative zonal wind anomalies over the TP with extensively positive anomalies to the south indicated that the southwestward shift of the westerly jet may favor the development of surface cyclones over the TP.An anomalous cyclone centered over the southeastern TP was associated with the anomalous westerly jet,which is conducive to heavier snowfall and results in positive snow depth anomalies.An anomalous cyclone was observed at 500 hPa over the TP,with an anomalous anticyclone immediately to the north,suggesting that the TP is frequently affected by surface cyclones.Regression analyses revealed that significant negative thickness anomalies exist around the TP from March to May,with a meridional dipole anomaly in March.The persistent negative anomalies due to more winter TP snow are not conducive to earlier reversal of the meridional temperature gradient,leading to a possible delay in the onset of the Asian summer monsoon.
基金supported by the Strategic Technological Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05090426)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB950304)the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant KZCX2-YW-QN202)
文摘Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2 （20CRv2） is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR version 2 Reanalysis data （NCEPv2） and the Hadley Center sea-level pressure data （HadSLPv2）.The results show that SH polar High,SH subtropical High,upper level split jet,cross-equatorial flow,Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）,and the pattem of Pacific-South-America （PSA） has been effectively captured by 20CRv2 during 1979-2010,with an apparent zonal asymmetry of AAO in the austral winter （June-July-August,JJA）.The notable upward linear trend of AAO in the entire period of 1871-2010 is represented in both 20CRv2 and HadS1Pv2.The most remarkable discrepancy of the SH climate variability between 20CRv2 and HadSLPv2 occurred in 1897-1920 and was partly caused by such factors as the paucity of meteorological and oceanographic data in the SH to be assimilated,the handling of the specified sea-ice concentration in South Pole,and imperfect climate models.The consistency of these reanalysis data is increased with the use of a large amount of satellite observation and radiosonde data,particularly after 1979.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB953902)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41530425,41275081 and 41475081)
文摘This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover(SC)in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes.The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to November,following the seasonal progression of the transition zones of surface air temperature(SAT).The dominant pattern of SC variability in September and October features a zonal distribution,and that in November displays an obvious west-east contrast.Surface air cooling and snowfall increase are two factors for larger SC.The relative contribution of SAT and snowfall changes to SC,however,varies with the region and depends upon the season.The downward longwave radiation and atmospheric heat advection play important roles in SAT changes.Anomalous convergence of water vapor flux contributes to enhanced snowfall.The changes in downward longwave radiation are associated with those in atmospheric water content and column thickness.Changes in snowfall and the transport of atmospheric moisture determine the atmospheric moisture content in September and October,and the snowfall appears to be a main factor for atmospheric moisture change in November.These results indicate that atmospheric circulation changes play an important role in snow variability over northern Eurasia in autumn.Overall,the coupling between autumn Eurasian snow and atmospheric circulation may not be driven by external forcing.
基金sponsored by the One-hundred Talents Project of the Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Natural Science Foundation of China(49971075)the Key Project A of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZ951-A1-402-04-06).
文摘The effective precipitation and the frame of atmospheric circulation in the past three key periods, i.e. 30 ka BP, 18 ka BP and 6 ka BP, have been analyzed on the basis of the palaeolake status record produced by the Chinese Lake Status Data Base. The results show that the west-central part of China was characterized by high lake-levels at 30 ka BP, resulting from strengthened southwest monsoons; whereas the high lake stand, occurring in the west-central part of China at 18 ka BP, was caused by the southward shift and the strengthening of westerlies although the high-stand distribution was reduced. Meanwhile, the east-central part of China was under the control of strong winter monsoons at 18 ka BP. The high lake-levels, which occurred in the east-central part of China at 6 ka BP, are related to the enhanced East-Asian summer monsoons; while the lowering of the lake-level in the west-central part of China at 6 ka BP was due to the northward shift and corresponding shrink of the westerlies.A comparison between the lake status and the palaeoclimate models has shown that there do exist discrepancies between the geological evidence and the model simulations. The agreement between them provides a possible mechanical explanation on the geological phenomena, but the discrepancy shows that the model needs to be revised to a great extent.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan (Grant No. 2016YFA0600703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91744311, 41991283 and 41705058)the funding of the Jiangsu Innovation & Entrepreneurship Team。
文摘Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.
