In engineering applications, probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method, however, in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and cre...In engineering applications, probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method, however, in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs. In this paper, we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory, which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient. By using the interval analysis, a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper, and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis. Moreover, the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory, but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition. Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.展开更多
Currently, some fault prognosis technology occasionally has relatively unsatisfied performance especially for in- cipient faults in nonlinear processes duo to their large time delay and complex internal connection. To...Currently, some fault prognosis technology occasionally has relatively unsatisfied performance especially for in- cipient faults in nonlinear processes duo to their large time delay and complex internal connection. To overcome this deficiency, multivariate time delay analysis is incorporated into the high sensitive local kernel principal component analysis. In this approach, mutual information estimation and Bayesian information criterion （BIC） are separately used to acquire the correlation degree and time delay of the process variables. Moreover, in order to achieve prediction, time series prediction by back propagation （BP） network is applied whose input is multivar- iate correlated time series other than the original time series. Then the multivariate time delayed series and future values obtained by time series prediction are combined to construct the input of local kernel principal component analysis （LKPCA） model for incipient fault prognosis. The new method has been exemplified in a sim- ple nonlinear process and the complicated Tennessee Eastman （TE） benchmark process. The results indicate that the new method has suoerioritv in the fault prognosis sensitivity over other traditional fault prognosis methods.展开更多
Pattern discovery from the seasonal time-series is of importance. Traditionally, most of the algorithms of pattern discovery in time series are similar. A novel mode of time series is proposed which integrates the Gen...Pattern discovery from the seasonal time-series is of importance. Traditionally, most of the algorithms of pattern discovery in time series are similar. A novel mode of time series is proposed which integrates the Genetic Algorithm (GA) for the actual problem. The experiments on the electric power yield sequence models show that this algorithm is practicable and effective.展开更多
An active perception methodology is proposed to locally predict the observability condition in a reasonable horizon and suggest an observability-constrained motion direction for the next step to ensure an accurate and...An active perception methodology is proposed to locally predict the observability condition in a reasonable horizon and suggest an observability-constrained motion direction for the next step to ensure an accurate and consistent state estimation performance of vision-based navigation systems. The methodology leverages an efficient EOG-based observability analysis and a motion primitive-based path sampling technique to realize the local observability prediction with a real-time performance. The observability conditions of potential motion trajectories are evaluated,and an informed motion direction is selected to ensure the observability efficiency for the state estimation system. The proposed approach is specialized to a representative optimizationbased monocular vision-based state estimation formulation and demonstrated through simulation and experiments to evaluate the ability of estimation degradation prediction and efficacy of motion direction suggestion.展开更多
An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only smal...An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.展开更多
Information centric networking(ICN) is a new network architecture that is centred on accessing content. It aims to solve some of the problems associated with IP networks, increasing content distribution capability and...Information centric networking(ICN) is a new network architecture that is centred on accessing content. It aims to solve some of the problems associated with IP networks, increasing content distribution capability and improving users' experience. To analyse the requests' patterns and fully utilize the universal cached contents, a novel intelligent resources management system is proposed, which enables effi cient cache resource allocation in real time, based on changing user demand patterns. The system is composed of two parts. The fi rst part is a fi ne-grain traffi c estimation algorithm called Temporal Poisson traffi c prediction(TP2) that aims at analysing the traffi c pattern(or aggregated user requests' demands) for different contents. The second part is a collaborative cache placement algorithm that is based on traffic estimated by TP2. The experimental results show that TP2 has better performance than other comparable traffi c prediction algorithms and the proposed intelligent system can increase the utilization of cache resources and improve the network capacity.展开更多
Problems of the simultaneous optimal estimates and the optimal tests in general mixed models are considered. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for the least squares estimate of the fixed effects and th...Problems of the simultaneous optimal estimates and the optimal tests in general mixed models are considered. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for the least squares estimate of the fixed effects and the analysis of variance （Hendreson III＇s） estimate of variance components being uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates simultaneously. This result can be applied to the problems of finding uniformly optimal unbiased tests and uniformly most accurate unbiased confidential interval on parameters of interest, and for finding equivalences of several common estimates of variance components.展开更多
In this paper,ETD3-Padéand ETD4-PadéGalerkin finite element methods are proposed and analyzed for nonlinear delayed convection-diffusion-reaction equations with Dirichlet boundary conditions.An ETD-based RK ...In this paper,ETD3-Padéand ETD4-PadéGalerkin finite element methods are proposed and analyzed for nonlinear delayed convection-diffusion-reaction equations with Dirichlet boundary conditions.An ETD-based RK is used for time integration of the corresponding equation.To overcome a well-known difficulty of numerical instability associated with the computation of the exponential operator,the Padéapproach is used for such an exponential operator approximation,which in turn leads to the corresponding ETD-Padéschemes.An unconditional L^(2) numerical stability is proved for the proposed numerical schemes,under a global Lipshitz continuity assumption.In addition,optimal rate error estimates are provided,which gives the convergence order of O(k^(3)+h^(r))(ETD3-Padé)or O(k^(4)+h^(r))(ETD4-Padé)in the L^(2)norm,respectively.Numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed numerical schemes.展开更多
基金the National Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of China (10425208)Civil 863 Program (2006AA04Z410)111 Project (B07009)
文摘In engineering applications, probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method, however, in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs. In this paper, we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory, which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient. By using the interval analysis, a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper, and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis. Moreover, the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory, but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition. Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573051,61472021)the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing(4142039)+1 种基金Open Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Software Development Environment(SKLSDE-2015KF-01)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(PT1613-05)
文摘Currently, some fault prognosis technology occasionally has relatively unsatisfied performance especially for in- cipient faults in nonlinear processes duo to their large time delay and complex internal connection. To overcome this deficiency, multivariate time delay analysis is incorporated into the high sensitive local kernel principal component analysis. In this approach, mutual information estimation and Bayesian information criterion （BIC） are separately used to acquire the correlation degree and time delay of the process variables. Moreover, in order to achieve prediction, time series prediction by back propagation （BP） network is applied whose input is multivar- iate correlated time series other than the original time series. Then the multivariate time delayed series and future values obtained by time series prediction are combined to construct the input of local kernel principal component analysis （LKPCA） model for incipient fault prognosis. The new method has been exemplified in a sim- ple nonlinear process and the complicated Tennessee Eastman （TE） benchmark process. The results indicate that the new method has suoerioritv in the fault prognosis sensitivity over other traditional fault prognosis methods.
文摘Pattern discovery from the seasonal time-series is of importance. Traditionally, most of the algorithms of pattern discovery in time series are similar. A novel mode of time series is proposed which integrates the Genetic Algorithm (GA) for the actual problem. The experiments on the electric power yield sequence models show that this algorithm is practicable and effective.
文摘An active perception methodology is proposed to locally predict the observability condition in a reasonable horizon and suggest an observability-constrained motion direction for the next step to ensure an accurate and consistent state estimation performance of vision-based navigation systems. The methodology leverages an efficient EOG-based observability analysis and a motion primitive-based path sampling technique to realize the local observability prediction with a real-time performance. The observability conditions of potential motion trajectories are evaluated,and an informed motion direction is selected to ensure the observability efficiency for the state estimation system. The proposed approach is specialized to a representative optimizationbased monocular vision-based state estimation formulation and demonstrated through simulation and experiments to evaluate the ability of estimation degradation prediction and efficacy of motion direction suggestion.
基金Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (CXZZ11_0193)NUAA Research Funding (NJ2010009)
文摘An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program(863)of China(No.2015AA016101)the National Natural Science Fund(No.61300184)Beijing Nova Program(No.Z151100000315078)
文摘Information centric networking(ICN) is a new network architecture that is centred on accessing content. It aims to solve some of the problems associated with IP networks, increasing content distribution capability and improving users' experience. To analyse the requests' patterns and fully utilize the universal cached contents, a novel intelligent resources management system is proposed, which enables effi cient cache resource allocation in real time, based on changing user demand patterns. The system is composed of two parts. The fi rst part is a fi ne-grain traffi c estimation algorithm called Temporal Poisson traffi c prediction(TP2) that aims at analysing the traffi c pattern(or aggregated user requests' demands) for different contents. The second part is a collaborative cache placement algorithm that is based on traffic estimated by TP2. The experimental results show that TP2 has better performance than other comparable traffi c prediction algorithms and the proposed intelligent system can increase the utilization of cache resources and improve the network capacity.
基金Funding Project for Academic Human Resources Development in Institutions of Higher Learning under the Jurisdiction of Beijing Municipality PHR (IHLB)National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (10801005) and (NSFC) (10771010)the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development,National Institute of Health
文摘Problems of the simultaneous optimal estimates and the optimal tests in general mixed models are considered. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for the least squares estimate of the fixed effects and the analysis of variance （Hendreson III＇s） estimate of variance components being uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates simultaneously. This result can be applied to the problems of finding uniformly optimal unbiased tests and uniformly most accurate unbiased confidential interval on parameters of interest, and for finding equivalences of several common estimates of variance components.
文摘In this paper,ETD3-Padéand ETD4-PadéGalerkin finite element methods are proposed and analyzed for nonlinear delayed convection-diffusion-reaction equations with Dirichlet boundary conditions.An ETD-based RK is used for time integration of the corresponding equation.To overcome a well-known difficulty of numerical instability associated with the computation of the exponential operator,the Padéapproach is used for such an exponential operator approximation,which in turn leads to the corresponding ETD-Padéschemes.An unconditional L^(2) numerical stability is proved for the proposed numerical schemes,under a global Lipshitz continuity assumption.In addition,optimal rate error estimates are provided,which gives the convergence order of O(k^(3)+h^(r))(ETD3-Padé)or O(k^(4)+h^(r))(ETD4-Padé)in the L^(2)norm,respectively.Numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed numerical schemes.
