Countries around the world have been making efforts to reduce pollutant emissions. However, the response of global black carbon(BC) aging to emission changes remains unclear. Using the Community Atmosphere Model versi...Countries around the world have been making efforts to reduce pollutant emissions. However, the response of global black carbon(BC) aging to emission changes remains unclear. Using the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 with a machine-learning-integrated four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module, we quantify global BC aging responses to emission reductions for 2011–2018 and for 2050 and 2100 under carbon neutrality. During 2011–18, global trends in BC aging degree(mass ratio of coatings to BC, R_(BC)) exhibited marked regional disparities, with a significant increase in China(5.4% yr^(-1)), which contrasts with minimal changes in the USA, Europe, and India. The divergence is attributed to opposing trends in secondary organic aerosol(SOA) and sulfate coatings, driven by regional changes in the emission ratios of corresponding coating precursors to BC(volatile organic compounds-VOCs/BC and SO_(2)/BC). Projections under carbon neutrality reveal that R_(BC) will increase globally by 47%(118%) in 2050(2100), with strong convergent increases expected across major source regions. The R_(BC) increase, primarily driven by enhanced SOA coatings due to sharper BC reductions relative to VOCs, will enhance the global BC mass absorption cross-section(MAC) by 11%(17%) in 2050(2100).Consequently, although the global BC burden will decline sharply by 60%(76%), the enhanced MAC partially offsets the magnitude of the decline in the BC direct radiative effect, resulting in the moderation of global BC DRE decreases to 88%(92%) of the BC burden reductions in 2050(2100). This study highlights the globally enhanced BC aging and light absorption capacity under carbon neutrality, thereby partly offsetting the impact of BC direct emission reductions on future changes in BC radiative effects globally.展开更多
To the editor:China is undergoing a profound demo-graphic transition,with the proportion of adults aged 65 and older reaching 14.9%in 2022 and projected to continue rising due to declining birth rates and increased li...To the editor:China is undergoing a profound demo-graphic transition,with the proportion of adults aged 65 and older reaching 14.9%in 2022 and projected to continue rising due to declining birth rates and increased life expectancy.1 This ageing trend has brought mental health in late life into sharp focus as a growing public health issue.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42505149,41925023,U2342223,42105069,and 91744208)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2025M770303)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (14380230)the Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Postdoctoral Talent,and Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change。
文摘Countries around the world have been making efforts to reduce pollutant emissions. However, the response of global black carbon(BC) aging to emission changes remains unclear. Using the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 with a machine-learning-integrated four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module, we quantify global BC aging responses to emission reductions for 2011–2018 and for 2050 and 2100 under carbon neutrality. During 2011–18, global trends in BC aging degree(mass ratio of coatings to BC, R_(BC)) exhibited marked regional disparities, with a significant increase in China(5.4% yr^(-1)), which contrasts with minimal changes in the USA, Europe, and India. The divergence is attributed to opposing trends in secondary organic aerosol(SOA) and sulfate coatings, driven by regional changes in the emission ratios of corresponding coating precursors to BC(volatile organic compounds-VOCs/BC and SO_(2)/BC). Projections under carbon neutrality reveal that R_(BC) will increase globally by 47%(118%) in 2050(2100), with strong convergent increases expected across major source regions. The R_(BC) increase, primarily driven by enhanced SOA coatings due to sharper BC reductions relative to VOCs, will enhance the global BC mass absorption cross-section(MAC) by 11%(17%) in 2050(2100).Consequently, although the global BC burden will decline sharply by 60%(76%), the enhanced MAC partially offsets the magnitude of the decline in the BC direct radiative effect, resulting in the moderation of global BC DRE decreases to 88%(92%) of the BC burden reductions in 2050(2100). This study highlights the globally enhanced BC aging and light absorption capacity under carbon neutrality, thereby partly offsetting the impact of BC direct emission reductions on future changes in BC radiative effects globally.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72364004)the Guangxi Natural Science Foundation(2021JJA180017)+4 种基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC2506202)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(project number YG2024ZD25)Three-year action plan for Shanghai's public health system construction(GWVI-2.1.4)Projects of Guangxi Philosophy and Social Science Research(23FGL038)Guangxi Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities-Research Center for Health and Economic&Social Development(2025RWB13).
文摘To the editor:China is undergoing a profound demo-graphic transition,with the proportion of adults aged 65 and older reaching 14.9%in 2022 and projected to continue rising due to declining birth rates and increased life expectancy.1 This ageing trend has brought mental health in late life into sharp focus as a growing public health issue.
