This paper studied a structured model by age of tuberculosis. A population divided into two parts was considered for the study. Each subpopulation is submitted to a program of vaccination. It was allowed the migration...This paper studied a structured model by age of tuberculosis. A population divided into two parts was considered for the study. Each subpopulation is submitted to a program of vaccination. It was allowed the migration of vaccinated people only between the two patches. After the determination of and , the local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium was studied. It showed the existence of three endemic equilibrium points. The theoretical results were illustrated by a numeric simulation.展开更多
Using the sterile insect technique,in which sterile mosquitoes are released to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population,is an effective weapon to prevent transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. To study the i...Using the sterile insect technique,in which sterile mosquitoes are released to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population,is an effective weapon to prevent transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. To study the impact of the sterile insect technique on the disease transmissions,we formulate stage-structured discrete-time mathematical models,based on difference equations,for the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes. We incorporate different strategies for releasing sterile mosquitoes,investigate the model dynamics,and compare the impact of the different release strategies.Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate dynamical features of the models.展开更多
In classical mumps models,individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed(homogeneous),ignoring population heterogeneity(preference,activity,etc.).Age is the key to catching mixed patterns in developing mathem...In classical mumps models,individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed(homogeneous),ignoring population heterogeneity(preference,activity,etc.).Age is the key to catching mixed patterns in developing mathematical models for mumps.A continuous heterogeneous age-structured model for mumps with vaccines has been developed in this paper.The stability of age-structured models is a difficult question.An explicit formula of R0 was defined for the various mixing modes(isolation,proportional and heterogeneous mixing)with or without the vaccine.The results show that the endemic steady state is unique and locally stable if R0>1 without any additional conditions.A number of numerical examples are given to support the theory.展开更多
Insect populations,which are diverse and widespread,provide a principal area of utilization of the stage-structured modeling approach.In this paper,housefly populations incorporating a stage-structured model are inves...Insect populations,which are diverse and widespread,provide a principal area of utilization of the stage-structured modeling approach.In this paper,housefly populations incorporating a stage-structured model are investigated theoretically and graphically.First,stability charts and rightmost characteristic roots of the positive equilibrium are elucidated analytically and numerically.Furthermore,the Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium is derived employing geometric stability switch criterion.Second,the properties of Hopf bifurcation are determined using the center manifold theorem and by reducing the equation to the Poincarénormal form.Finally,the correctness of the theoretical derivation is confirmed using a numerical simulation based on specific parameter values.Our results show that with an increase in delay T,the unique positive equilibrium may undergo two stability switches:from stable to unstable,and from unstable to stable.Interestingly,the characteristic equation has pure imaginary roots at the second pair and subsequent critical values,However,Hopf bifurcation theorem is not satisfied because all other characteristic roots of the characteristic equation at these critical values do not have strictly negative real parts,except the pure imaginary roots.We also simulate the unstable periodic solutions at the second pair of critical values through a bifurcation diagram.Therefore,a pair of supercritical Hopf bifurcations appear around the positive equilibrium of the housefly population stage-structured model.展开更多
Smoking is a serious global public health problem.The ability to quit smoking is closely related to age;in addition,personal determination and education usually play an important role in quitting smoking.In order to c...Smoking is a serious global public health problem.The ability to quit smoking is closely related to age;in addition,personal determination and education usually play an important role in quitting smoking.In order to capture such characteristics,we developed a novel age-structured smoking dynamical model.By defining the smoking generation number Ro,the local stability,global stability of the boundary equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are obtained using Lyapunov functions.The uniform persistence and the well-posedness and asymptotic smoothness of the solutions are also studied.Sensitivity analyzes show that the lower the age of onset of smoking and the higher the determination to stop,the greater the likelihood of quitting smoking and numerical studies support the theoretical results.展开更多
In this paper, the existence of periodic solutions for a time dependent age-structured population model is studied. The averaged net reproductive number is introduced as the main parameter to determine the dynamical b...In this paper, the existence of periodic solutions for a time dependent age-structured population model is studied. The averaged net reproductive number is introduced as the main parameter to determine the dynamical behaviors of the model. The existence of a global parameterized branch of periodic solutions of the model is obtained by using the contracting mapping theorem in a periodic and continuous function space. The global stability of the trivial equilibrium is studied and a very practical stability criteria for the model is obtained. The dynamics of the linear time-periodic model is similar to that of the linear model.展开更多
In this paper,we propose detailed and reasonable viral dynamics by using a multi-compartment model that incorporating the age since the infection of multiple infectedcells,multiple target cells(Langerhans-cells and CD...In this paper,we propose detailed and reasonable viral dynamics by using a multi-compartment model that incorporating the age since the infection of multiple infectedcells,multiple target cells(Langerhans-cells and CD4^(+)T-cells),multiple viral strains(CCR5 and CXR4 HIV)and multiple infection routes(cell-to-cell and cell-to-virus).Thebasic reproduction number,R_(0),of the whole model is derived from two transmissionmechanisms:one is the potential trigger from the infection routes for a single target celland other is the joint effect of multiple viral infections for multi-target cells.Accordingly,we study the global stability of the steady states for the single target model.For thewhole model,we prove that the infection-free steady state is globally asymptoticallystable if R_(0)<1,whereas viruses persist uniformly if R_(0)>1.Numerical simulations arecarried out to illustrate the theoretical results.Sensitive analyses expound the effect ofmodel parameters on the comprehensive reproduction number.It is remarkable to findthat simultaneous control of HlV infection for two target cells can effectively reducethe viral loads within-host.Finally,our work suggests that the synergetic mechanism ofmulti-target cells and multi-strain cannot be ignored during treatment.展开更多
Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.Kenya reported its first case on March 13,2020 and by March 16,2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmi...Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.Kenya reported its first case on March 13,2020 and by March 16,2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve.An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and burden.Contacts between different ages are incorporated via contact matrices.Simulation results show that 45%reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5e13%reduction of infections severity and deaths,while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8e22.7%reduction.The peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation,which happened a month after mitigations were relaxed.Low numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic cases.High numbers of cases are reported in the 15e29 years and 30e59 years age bands.Two mitigation periods,considered in the study,resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases,attack rates,hospital and ICU bed demands,as well as deaths,with the 190-days period giving higher reductions.展开更多
The importance of epidemiology in our life has stimulated researchers to extend the classic Susceptibles-Infectives-Removed (SIR) model to sophisticated models by including more factors in order to give detailed trans...The importance of epidemiology in our life has stimulated researchers to extend the classic Susceptibles-Infectives-Removed (SIR) model to sophisticated models by including more factors in order to give detailed transmission dynamics of epidemic diseases. However, the integration of the quarantine policy and age-structure is less addressed. In this work we propose an age-structured MSIQR (temporarily immune-susceptibles-infectives-quarantined-removed) model to study the impact of quarantine policies on the spread of epidemic diseases. Specifically, we investigate the existence of steady state solutions and stability property of the proposed model. The derived explicit expression of the basic reproductive number shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if, and that the unique endemic equilibrium exists if. In addition, the stability conditions of the endemic equilibrium are derived.展开更多
We formulate an age-structured model based on a system of nonlinear partial differen- tial equations to assist the early and catch up female vaccination programs for human papillomavirus （HPV） types 6 and 11. Since ...We formulate an age-structured model based on a system of nonlinear partial differen- tial equations to assist the early and catch up female vaccination programs for human papillomavirus （HPV） types 6 and 11. Since these HPV types do not induce permanent immunity, the model, which stratifies the population based on age and gender, has a susceptible-infectious-susceptible （SIS） structure. We calculate the effective reproduction number Rv for the model and describe the local-asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium using Rv. We prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium for Rv 〉 1 for the no vaccine case. However, analysis of the model for the vaccine case reveals that it undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. To support our theoretical results, we estimate the age and time solution with the given data for Toronto population, when an early and catch up female vaccine program is adopted, and when there is no vaccine. We show that early and catch up female vaccine program eliminates the infection in both male and female populations over a period of 30 years. Finally, we introduce the optimal control to an age-dependent model based on ordinary differential equations and solve it numerically to obtain the most cost-effective method for introducing the catch up vaccine into the population.展开更多
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy...In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is empl...Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor.展开更多
Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(...Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].展开更多
To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the stre...To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.展开更多
In this paper,we are concerned with the stability of traveling wavefronts of a Belousov-Zhabotinsky model with mixed nonlocal and degenerate diffusions.Such a system can be used to study the competition among nonlocal...In this paper,we are concerned with the stability of traveling wavefronts of a Belousov-Zhabotinsky model with mixed nonlocal and degenerate diffusions.Such a system can be used to study the competition among nonlocally diffusive species and degenerately diffusive species.We prove that the traveling wavefronts are exponentially stable,when the initial perturbation around the traveling waves decays exponentially as x→-∞,but in other locations,the initial data can be arbitrarily large.The adopted methods are the weighted energy with the comparison principle and squeezing technique.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
BACKGROUND Non-erosive reflux disease(NERD),the main gastroesophageal reflux subtype,features reflux symptoms without mucosal damage.Anxiety links to visceral hypersensitivity in NERD,yet mechanisms and animal models ...BACKGROUND Non-erosive reflux disease(NERD),the main gastroesophageal reflux subtype,features reflux symptoms without mucosal damage.Anxiety links to visceral hypersensitivity in NERD,yet mechanisms and animal models are unclear.AIM To establish a translational NERD rat model with anxiety comorbidity via tail clamping and study corticotropin-releasing hormone(CRH)-mediated neuroimmune pathways in visceral hypersensitivity and esophageal injury.METHODS Sprague-Dawley(SD)and Wistar rats were grouped into sham,model,and modified groups(n=10 each).The treatments for the modified groups were as follows:SD rats received ovalbumin/aluminum hydroxide suspension+acid perfusion±tail clamping(40 minutes/day for 7 days),while Wistar rats received fructose water+tail clamping.Esophageal pathology,visceral sensitivity,and behavior were assessed.Serum CRH,calcitonin gene-related peptide(CGRP),5-hydroxytryptamine(5-HT),and mast cell tryptase(MCT)and central amygdala(CeA)CRH mRNA were measured via ELISA and qRT-PCR.RESULTS Tail clamping induced anxiety,worsening visceral hypersensitivity(lower abdominal withdrawal reflex thresholds,P<0.05)and esophageal injury(dilated intercellular spaces and mitochondrial edema).Both models showed raised serum CRH,CGRP,5-HT,and MCT(P<0.01)and CeA CRH mRNA expression(P<0.01).Behavioral tests confirmed anxiety-like phenotypes.NERD-anxiety rats showed clinical-like symptom severity without erosion.CONCLUSION Tail clamping induces anxiety in NERD models,worsening visceral hypersensitivity via CRH neuroimmune dysregulation,offering a translational model and highlighting CRH as a treatment target.展开更多
Oxide dispersion strengthened(ODS)alloys are extensively used owing to high thermostability and creep strength contributed from uniformly dispersed fine oxides particles.However,the existence of these strengthening pa...Oxide dispersion strengthened(ODS)alloys are extensively used owing to high thermostability and creep strength contributed from uniformly dispersed fine oxides particles.However,the existence of these strengthening particles also deteriorates the processability and it is of great importance to establish accurate processing maps to guide the thermomechanical processes to enhance the formability.In this study,we performed particle swarm optimization-based back propagation artificial neural network model to predict the high temperature flow behavior of 0.25wt%Al2O3 particle-reinforced Cu alloys,and compared the accuracy with that of derived by Arrhenius-type constitutive model and back propagation artificial neural network model.To train these models,we obtained the raw data by fabricating ODS Cu alloys using the internal oxidation and reduction method,and conducting systematic hot compression tests between 400 and800℃with strain rates of 10^(-2)-10 S^(-1).At last,processing maps for ODS Cu alloys were proposed by combining processing parameters,mechanical behavior,microstructure characterization,and the modeling results achieved a coefficient of determination higher than>99%.展开更多
In the lush heart of Uganda’s Busoga sub-region,Isaac Imaka is charting a new course for rural development.After seven years in national media,he left the newsroom and stepped into the soil.The former reporter with t...In the lush heart of Uganda’s Busoga sub-region,Isaac Imaka is charting a new course for rural development.After seven years in national media,he left the newsroom and stepped into the soil.The former reporter with the Daily Monitor was driven by the belief that communities like his in Jinja North deserved more than chronic poverty and hand-to-mouth survival.展开更多
文摘This paper studied a structured model by age of tuberculosis. A population divided into two parts was considered for the study. Each subpopulation is submitted to a program of vaccination. It was allowed the migration of vaccinated people only between the two patches. After the determination of and , the local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium was studied. It showed the existence of three endemic equilibrium points. The theoretical results were illustrated by a numeric simulation.
基金supported partially by U.S.National Science Foundation grant DMS-0931213
文摘Using the sterile insect technique,in which sterile mosquitoes are released to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population,is an effective weapon to prevent transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. To study the impact of the sterile insect technique on the disease transmissions,we formulate stage-structured discrete-time mathematical models,based on difference equations,for the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes. We incorporate different strategies for releasing sterile mosquitoes,investigate the model dynamics,and compare the impact of the different release strategies.Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate dynamical features of the models.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang(2022D01A198,2022D03027)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12071382).
文摘In classical mumps models,individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed(homogeneous),ignoring population heterogeneity(preference,activity,etc.).Age is the key to catching mixed patterns in developing mathematical models for mumps.A continuous heterogeneous age-structured model for mumps with vaccines has been developed in this paper.The stability of age-structured models is a difficult question.An explicit formula of R0 was defined for the various mixing modes(isolation,proportional and heterogeneous mixing)with or without the vaccine.The results show that the endemic steady state is unique and locally stable if R0>1 without any additional conditions.A number of numerical examples are given to support the theory.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12201271 and 12361101)the Tianyou Youth Talent Lift Program of Lanzhou Jiaotong University.
文摘Insect populations,which are diverse and widespread,provide a principal area of utilization of the stage-structured modeling approach.In this paper,housefly populations incorporating a stage-structured model are investigated theoretically and graphically.First,stability charts and rightmost characteristic roots of the positive equilibrium are elucidated analytically and numerically.Furthermore,the Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium is derived employing geometric stability switch criterion.Second,the properties of Hopf bifurcation are determined using the center manifold theorem and by reducing the equation to the Poincarénormal form.Finally,the correctness of the theoretical derivation is confirmed using a numerical simulation based on specific parameter values.Our results show that with an increase in delay T,the unique positive equilibrium may undergo two stability switches:from stable to unstable,and from unstable to stable.Interestingly,the characteristic equation has pure imaginary roots at the second pair and subsequent critical values,However,Hopf bifurcation theorem is not satisfied because all other characteristic roots of the characteristic equation at these critical values do not have strictly negative real parts,except the pure imaginary roots.We also simulate the unstable periodic solutions at the second pair of critical values through a bifurcation diagram.Therefore,a pair of supercritical Hopf bifurcations appear around the positive equilibrium of the housefly population stage-structured model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC:11961024,11801047)the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing under Grant(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0755,cstc2018jcyjAX0606)+1 种基金the Team Building Project for Graduate Tutors in Chongqing(JDDSTD201802)Group Building Scientific Innovation Project for universities in Chongqing(CXQT21021).
文摘Smoking is a serious global public health problem.The ability to quit smoking is closely related to age;in addition,personal determination and education usually play an important role in quitting smoking.In order to capture such characteristics,we developed a novel age-structured smoking dynamical model.By defining the smoking generation number Ro,the local stability,global stability of the boundary equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are obtained using Lyapunov functions.The uniform persistence and the well-posedness and asymptotic smoothness of the solutions are also studied.Sensitivity analyzes show that the lower the age of onset of smoking and the higher the determination to stop,the greater the likelihood of quitting smoking and numerical studies support the theoretical results.
文摘In this paper, the existence of periodic solutions for a time dependent age-structured population model is studied. The averaged net reproductive number is introduced as the main parameter to determine the dynamical behaviors of the model. The existence of a global parameterized branch of periodic solutions of the model is obtained by using the contracting mapping theorem in a periodic and continuous function space. The global stability of the trivial equilibrium is studied and a very practical stability criteria for the model is obtained. The dynamics of the linear time-periodic model is similar to that of the linear model.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11971013,11571170).
文摘In this paper,we propose detailed and reasonable viral dynamics by using a multi-compartment model that incorporating the age since the infection of multiple infectedcells,multiple target cells(Langerhans-cells and CD4^(+)T-cells),multiple viral strains(CCR5 and CXR4 HIV)and multiple infection routes(cell-to-cell and cell-to-virus).Thebasic reproduction number,R_(0),of the whole model is derived from two transmissionmechanisms:one is the potential trigger from the infection routes for a single target celland other is the joint effect of multiple viral infections for multi-target cells.Accordingly,we study the global stability of the steady states for the single target model.For thewhole model,we prove that the infection-free steady state is globally asymptoticallystable if R_(0)<1,whereas viruses persist uniformly if R_(0)>1.Numerical simulations arecarried out to illustrate the theoretical results.Sensitive analyses expound the effect ofmodel parameters on the comprehensive reproduction number.It is remarkable to findthat simultaneous control of HlV infection for two target cells can effectively reducethe viral loads within-host.Finally,our work suggests that the synergetic mechanism ofmulti-target cells and multi-strain cannot be ignored during treatment.
文摘Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.Kenya reported its first case on March 13,2020 and by March 16,2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve.An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and burden.Contacts between different ages are incorporated via contact matrices.Simulation results show that 45%reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5e13%reduction of infections severity and deaths,while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8e22.7%reduction.The peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation,which happened a month after mitigations were relaxed.Low numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic cases.High numbers of cases are reported in the 15e29 years and 30e59 years age bands.Two mitigation periods,considered in the study,resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases,attack rates,hospital and ICU bed demands,as well as deaths,with the 190-days period giving higher reductions.
文摘The importance of epidemiology in our life has stimulated researchers to extend the classic Susceptibles-Infectives-Removed (SIR) model to sophisticated models by including more factors in order to give detailed transmission dynamics of epidemic diseases. However, the integration of the quarantine policy and age-structure is less addressed. In this work we propose an age-structured MSIQR (temporarily immune-susceptibles-infectives-quarantined-removed) model to study the impact of quarantine policies on the spread of epidemic diseases. Specifically, we investigate the existence of steady state solutions and stability property of the proposed model. The derived explicit expression of the basic reproductive number shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if, and that the unique endemic equilibrium exists if. In addition, the stability conditions of the endemic equilibrium are derived.
文摘We formulate an age-structured model based on a system of nonlinear partial differen- tial equations to assist the early and catch up female vaccination programs for human papillomavirus （HPV） types 6 and 11. Since these HPV types do not induce permanent immunity, the model, which stratifies the population based on age and gender, has a susceptible-infectious-susceptible （SIS） structure. We calculate the effective reproduction number Rv for the model and describe the local-asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium using Rv. We prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium for Rv 〉 1 for the no vaccine case. However, analysis of the model for the vaccine case reveals that it undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. To support our theoretical results, we estimate the age and time solution with the given data for Toronto population, when an early and catch up female vaccine program is adopted, and when there is no vaccine. We show that early and catch up female vaccine program eliminates the infection in both male and female populations over a period of 30 years. Finally, we introduce the optimal control to an age-dependent model based on ordinary differential equations and solve it numerically to obtain the most cost-effective method for introducing the catch up vaccine into the population.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261018)Universities Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Data Mining in Guizhou Province(2023013)。
文摘In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
文摘Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor.
文摘Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].
基金Funded by State Railway Administration Research Project(No.2023JS007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52438002)+1 种基金Research and Development Programs for Science and Technology of China Railways Corporation(No.J2023G003)New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE。
文摘To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12261081).
文摘In this paper,we are concerned with the stability of traveling wavefronts of a Belousov-Zhabotinsky model with mixed nonlocal and degenerate diffusions.Such a system can be used to study the competition among nonlocally diffusive species and degenerately diffusive species.We prove that the traveling wavefronts are exponentially stable,when the initial perturbation around the traveling waves decays exponentially as x→-∞,but in other locations,the initial data can be arbitrarily large.The adopted methods are the weighted energy with the comparison principle and squeezing technique.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金Supported by the National Key Specialty of Traditional Chinese Medicine(Spleen and Stomach Diseases),No.0500004National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82205104 and No.82104850+1 种基金Hospital Capability Enhancement Project of Xiyuan Hospital,CACMS,No.XYZX0303-07the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Public Welfare Research Institutes,Excellent Young Scientists Training Program of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,No.ZZ16-YQ-002.
文摘BACKGROUND Non-erosive reflux disease(NERD),the main gastroesophageal reflux subtype,features reflux symptoms without mucosal damage.Anxiety links to visceral hypersensitivity in NERD,yet mechanisms and animal models are unclear.AIM To establish a translational NERD rat model with anxiety comorbidity via tail clamping and study corticotropin-releasing hormone(CRH)-mediated neuroimmune pathways in visceral hypersensitivity and esophageal injury.METHODS Sprague-Dawley(SD)and Wistar rats were grouped into sham,model,and modified groups(n=10 each).The treatments for the modified groups were as follows:SD rats received ovalbumin/aluminum hydroxide suspension+acid perfusion±tail clamping(40 minutes/day for 7 days),while Wistar rats received fructose water+tail clamping.Esophageal pathology,visceral sensitivity,and behavior were assessed.Serum CRH,calcitonin gene-related peptide(CGRP),5-hydroxytryptamine(5-HT),and mast cell tryptase(MCT)and central amygdala(CeA)CRH mRNA were measured via ELISA and qRT-PCR.RESULTS Tail clamping induced anxiety,worsening visceral hypersensitivity(lower abdominal withdrawal reflex thresholds,P<0.05)and esophageal injury(dilated intercellular spaces and mitochondrial edema).Both models showed raised serum CRH,CGRP,5-HT,and MCT(P<0.01)and CeA CRH mRNA expression(P<0.01).Behavioral tests confirmed anxiety-like phenotypes.NERD-anxiety rats showed clinical-like symptom severity without erosion.CONCLUSION Tail clamping induces anxiety in NERD models,worsening visceral hypersensitivity via CRH neuroimmune dysregulation,offering a translational model and highlighting CRH as a treatment target.
基金financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52371103)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.2242023K40028)+1 种基金the Open Research Fund of Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Advanced Metallic Materials,China(No.AMM2023B01).financial support of the Research Fund of Shihezi Key Laboratory of AluminumBased Advanced Materials,China(No.2023PT02)financial support of Guangdong Province Science and Technology Major Project,China(No.2021B0301030005)。
文摘Oxide dispersion strengthened(ODS)alloys are extensively used owing to high thermostability and creep strength contributed from uniformly dispersed fine oxides particles.However,the existence of these strengthening particles also deteriorates the processability and it is of great importance to establish accurate processing maps to guide the thermomechanical processes to enhance the formability.In this study,we performed particle swarm optimization-based back propagation artificial neural network model to predict the high temperature flow behavior of 0.25wt%Al2O3 particle-reinforced Cu alloys,and compared the accuracy with that of derived by Arrhenius-type constitutive model and back propagation artificial neural network model.To train these models,we obtained the raw data by fabricating ODS Cu alloys using the internal oxidation and reduction method,and conducting systematic hot compression tests between 400 and800℃with strain rates of 10^(-2)-10 S^(-1).At last,processing maps for ODS Cu alloys were proposed by combining processing parameters,mechanical behavior,microstructure characterization,and the modeling results achieved a coefficient of determination higher than>99%.
文摘In the lush heart of Uganda’s Busoga sub-region,Isaac Imaka is charting a new course for rural development.After seven years in national media,he left the newsroom and stepped into the soil.The former reporter with the Daily Monitor was driven by the belief that communities like his in Jinja North deserved more than chronic poverty and hand-to-mouth survival.
