In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using concept...In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.展开更多
This paper discusses the factors influencing Chinese energy intensity from 1980 to 2003 based on adaptive weighting Divisia index method and the analyzing results are different in different phase. In period of 1980～1...This paper discusses the factors influencing Chinese energy intensity from 1980 to 2003 based on adaptive weighting Divisia index method and the analyzing results are different in different phase. In period of 1980～1990, both the structure factor and the technology factor effected positively Chinese energy intensity＇s fall but the former became inefficacy and even turned out to be negative in 1991～2001 meanwhile the later factor strengthened its function. After 2001, the two factors promoted Chinese energy intensity＇s rising together. The conclusion is given in the end.展开更多
基金Project(08SK1002) supported by the Major Project of Science and Technology Department of Hunan Province,China
文摘In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.
文摘This paper discusses the factors influencing Chinese energy intensity from 1980 to 2003 based on adaptive weighting Divisia index method and the analyzing results are different in different phase. In period of 1980～1990, both the structure factor and the technology factor effected positively Chinese energy intensity＇s fall but the former became inefficacy and even turned out to be negative in 1991～2001 meanwhile the later factor strengthened its function. After 2001, the two factors promoted Chinese energy intensity＇s rising together. The conclusion is given in the end.
