The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to elimin...The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.展开更多
Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to me...Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to meet the actual situation. Thus, non-probabilistic reliability index is presented by comparing with the output range and the given range.展开更多
Urban waste solids are now becoming one of the most crucial environmental problems. There are several different kinds of technologies normally used for waste solids disposal, among which landfill is more favorable in ...Urban waste solids are now becoming one of the most crucial environmental problems. There are several different kinds of technologies normally used for waste solids disposal, among which landfill is more favorable in China than others, especially for urban waste solids. Most of the design works up to now are based on a roughly estimation of the amount of urban waste solids without any theoretical support, which lead to a series problems. To meet the basic information requirements for the design work, the amount of the urban waste solids was predicted in this research by applying the gray theoretical model GM (1,1) through non linear differential equation simulation. The model parameters were estimated with the least square method (LSM) by running a certain MATALAB program, and the hypothesis test results show that the residual between the prediction value and the actual value approximately comply with the normal distribution N (0,0 21 2), and the probability of the residual within the range (-0 17, 0 19) is more than 95%, which indicate obviously that the model can be well used for the prediction of the amount of waste solids and those had been already testified by the latest two years data about the urban waste solids from Loudi City of China. With this model, the predicted amount of the waste solids produced in Loudi City in the next 30 years is 8049000 ton in total.展开更多
In order to determine the control dimensions of human body in pattern construction and provide the basis for size specification in clothing industry, a gray model is described and established in the application of pre...In order to determine the control dimensions of human body in pattern construction and provide the basis for size specification in clothing industry, a gray model is described and established in the application of predicting size specification. By comparing the features of gray model and regression model, it is proved that the former has many advantages over the latter, i.e. more practical and more effective in this application. So it is strongly suggested to apply the innovative gray model instead of the traditional regression model to facilitate the calculation procedure in pattern construction.展开更多
In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecas...In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.展开更多
The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and...The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality.展开更多
This paper StUdies soil erosion dynamics in the typical region of southem China based onremote sensing, GIS tecndques and gray forecast model. The resultS of survey on Xingguo countyshown the soil eroded area and annu...This paper StUdies soil erosion dynamics in the typical region of southem China based onremote sensing, GIS tecndques and gray forecast model. The resultS of survey on Xingguo countyshown the soil eroded area and annual soil erosion amount decreased by 19.09% and 43.05%reSPectively from 1958 to 1988. The results of gray forecast model presented that soil eroded areaincreased from 818.04 km2 in 1988 to 1276.69 km2 in 1995. in the meanthne the total soil erosiollamount decreased from 607.21×104 ba in 1988 to 472. 12 ×104 t/a in 1995. By comparing differentlanduse types, the soil loss modulus of the forest was the lowest with 177. 16~187.75t/km2. a, on thecontraly the bare land was the highest with 10626.76~11265.48 t/km2. a. so the high vegetationcoverage can decrease soil and water loss effectively.展开更多
It is well known that Landsat TM images are the most widely used remote sensing data in various fields.Usually,it has 7 different electromagnetic spectrum bands,among which the sixth one has much lower ground resoluti...It is well known that Landsat TM images are the most widely used remote sensing data in various fields.Usually,it has 7 different electromagnetic spectrum bands,among which the sixth one has much lower ground resolution compared with the other six bands.Nevertheless,it is useful in the study of rock spectrum reflection,geothermal resources exploration,etc.To improve the ground resolution of TM6 to the level as that of the other six bands is a problem .This paper presents an algorithm based on the combination of multivariate regression model with semivariogram function which can improve the ground resolution of TM6 by "fusing" the data of other six bands.It includes the following main steps: （1） testing the correlation between TM6 and one of TM15,7.If the correlation coefficient between TM6 and another one is greater than a given threshold value,then select the band to the regression analysis as an argument.（2） calculating the size of the template window within which some parameters needed by the regression model will be calculated; （3） replacing the original pixel values of TM6 by those obtained by regression analysis; （4） using image entropy as a measurement to evaluate the quality of the fused image of TM6.The basic mechanism of the algorithm is discussed and the V C ++ program for implementing this algorithm is also presented.A simple application example is given in the last part of this paper,showing the effectiveness of the algorithm.展开更多
A novel algorithm to voxelize 3D mesh models with gray levels is presented in this paper.The key innovation of our method is to decide the gray level of a voxel according to the total area of all surfaces contained by...A novel algorithm to voxelize 3D mesh models with gray levels is presented in this paper.The key innovation of our method is to decide the gray level of a voxel according to the total area of all surfaces contained by it.During the preprocessing stage,a set of voxels in the extended bounding box of each triangle is established.Then we travel each triangle and compute the areas between it and its set of voxels one by one.Finally,each voxel is arranged a discrete gray level from 0 to 255.Experiments show that our algorithm gets a comparatively perfect result compared with the prevenient ones and approaches the original models in a more accurate way.展开更多
To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray ...To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then,it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error,thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore,it adopts the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55. 32,57. 46,59. 72,62. 02 and 64. 43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3. 7% ,much higher than the objective of 2. 2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development ( 2011 to 2015) . The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.展开更多
[Objective] Taken the Linjiang tourism as an example, tourism forecast system was established, difficulties related to the work of tourist area were solved. [Method] Dynamic predicted response model of Lijiang tourism...[Objective] Taken the Linjiang tourism as an example, tourism forecast system was established, difficulties related to the work of tourist area were solved. [Method] Dynamic predicted response model of Lijiang tourism market was established, through the gray correlation model GM (1, 1) and time-series method, using a computer simulation program for the actual model of operation, Lijiang tourism prospects were predicted and predicting results were evaluated. [Result] Total revenue of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a= 0.572 3 from 2009 to 2011, internal control parameters u=0.393 7, x(t+1) =-0.563 3exp(-0.572 3t)+0.688 0; total reception numbers of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a = 0.125 6, internal control parameters u = 344. 326 0, x(t+1)=3 102.483 5 exp(0.125 6 t)-2 741.283 5. Test results of two models showed that fitting degrees were good, and at the same time predicted that total revenue of Lijiang tourism reached 13 000 000 000, and total reception numbers reached 8 800 000. [Conclusion] This predicted system can carry out precision forecast for other tourist areas when cannot get all the information.展开更多
Because the physiological characteristics and melanin regulation mechanism of zebrafish are highly similar with those of humans,it is of high reference value to use zebrafish model in the evaluation of cosmetic whiten...Because the physiological characteristics and melanin regulation mechanism of zebrafish are highly similar with those of humans,it is of high reference value to use zebrafish model in the evaluation of cosmetic whitening efficacy.In this study,zebrafish embryos are used as biological models to evaluate the whitening efficacy of six kinds of cosmetics raw materials,such as antioxidant,preservative and essence,and the formula of facial cleanser and facial mask products,and the limitations of the zebrafish melanin production grayscale detection method in practical application are discussed.The results show that the selection of different types of components can also reduce the production of melanin and show whitening effect.It can be seen that the gray scale method of melanin production in zebrafish is suitable for the evaluation of the efficacy of raw materials.In practical application,due to the complexity of the formula,the toxic effects of different types of ingredients may interfere with the melanin generation of zebrafish,affecting the judgment and evaluation of whitening efficacy.For the detection of whitening efficacy of products,a comprehensive evaluation system should be built together with other methods to accurately evaluate the whitening efficacy.展开更多
A grey-box modelling framework was developed for the estimation of cut point temperature of a crude distillation unit(CDU)under uncertainty in crude composition and process conditions.First principle(FP)model of CDU w...A grey-box modelling framework was developed for the estimation of cut point temperature of a crude distillation unit(CDU)under uncertainty in crude composition and process conditions.First principle(FP)model of CDU was developed for Pakistani crudes from Zamzama and Kunnar fields.A hybrid methodology based on the integration of Taguchi method and genetic algorithm(GA)was employed to estimate the optimal cut point temperature for various sets of process variables.Optimised datasets were utilised to develop an artificial neural networks(ANN)model for the prediction of optimum values of cut points.The ANN model was then used to replace the hybrid framework of the Taguchi method and the GA.The integration of the ANN and FP model makes it a grey-box(GB)model.For the case of Zamama crude,the GB model helped in the decrease of up to 38.93%in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and an 8.2%increase in diesel production compared to the stand-alone FP model under uncertainty.Similarly,for Kunnar crude,up to 18.87%decrease in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and a 33.96%increase in diesel production was observed in comparison to the stand-alone FP model.展开更多
This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h ...This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h variables grey forecasting model （GM （1, h））, always aggregate the main system variable and independent variables in a linear form rather than a nonlinear form, while a nonlinear form could be used in more cases than the linear form. And the nonlinear form could aggregate collinear independent factors, which widely lie in many multi-factor forecasting problems. To overcome this problem, a new approach, named as the Solow residual method, is proposed to aggregate independent factors. And a new expansion model, feedback multi-factor discrete grey forecasting model based on the Solow residual method （abbreviated as FDGM （1, h））, is proposed accordingly. Then the feedback control equation and the parameters＇ solution of the FDGM （1, h） model are given. Finally, a real application is used to test the modelling accuracy of the FDGM （1, h） model. Results show that the FDGM （1, h） model is much better than the nonhomogeneous discrete grey forecasting model （NDGM） and the GM （1, h） model.展开更多
Dynamic infrared scene simulation is for discovering and solving the problems encountered in designing, developing and manufacturing infrared imaging guidance weapons. The infrared scene simulation is explored by usin...Dynamic infrared scene simulation is for discovering and solving the problems encountered in designing, developing and manufacturing infrared imaging guidance weapons. The infrared scene simulation is explored by using the digital grayscale modulation method. The infrared image modulation model of a digital micro-mirror device （DMD） is established and then the infrared scene simulator prototype which is based on DMD grayscale modulation is developed. To evaluate its main parameters such as resolution, contrast, minimum temperature difference, gray scale, various DMD subsystems such as signal decoding, image normalization, synchronization drive, pulse width modulation （PWM） and DMD chips are designed. The infrared scene simulator is tested on a certain infrared missile seeker. The test results show preliminarily that the infrared scene simulator has high gray scale, small geometrical distortion and highly resolvable imaging resolution and contrast and yields high-fidelity images, thus being able to meet the requirements for the infrared scene simulation inside a laboratory.展开更多
The study of the development cost of general aviation aircraft is limited by small samples with many cost-driven factors. This paper investigates a parametric modeling method for prediction of the development cost of ...The study of the development cost of general aviation aircraft is limited by small samples with many cost-driven factors. This paper investigates a parametric modeling method for prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft. The proposed technique depends on some principal components, acquired by utilizing P value analysis and gray correlation analysis. According to these principal components, the corresponding linear regression and BP neural network models are established respectively. The feasibility and accuracy of the P value analysis are verified by comparing results of model fitting and prediction. A sensitivity analysis related to model precision and suitability is discussed in detail. Results obtained in this study show that the proposed method not only has a certain degree of versatility, but also provides a preliminary prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft.展开更多
There are many influencing factors of fiscal revenue,and traditional forecasting methods cannot handle the feature dimensions well,which leads to serious over-fitting of the forecast results and unable to make a good ...There are many influencing factors of fiscal revenue,and traditional forecasting methods cannot handle the feature dimensions well,which leads to serious over-fitting of the forecast results and unable to make a good estimate of the true future trend.The grey neural network model fused with Lasso regression is a comprehensive prediction model that combines the grey prediction model and the BP neural network model after dimensionality reduction using Lasso.It can reduce the dimensionality of the original data,make separate predictions for each explanatory variable,and then use neural networks to make multivariate predictions,thereby making up for the shortcomings of traditional methods of insufficient prediction accuracy.In this paper,we took the financial revenue data of China’s Hunan Province from 2005 to 2019 as the object of analysis.Firstly,we used Lasso regression to reduce the dimensionality of the data.Because the grey prediction model has the excellent predictive performance for small data volumes,then we chose the grey prediction model to obtain the predicted values of all explanatory variables in 2020,2021 by using the data of 2005–2019.Finally,considering that fiscal revenue is affected by many factors,we applied the BP neural network,which has a good effect on multiple inputs,to make the final forecast of fiscal revenue.The experimental results show that the combined model has a good effect in financial revenue forecasting.展开更多
In situ monitoring of the microstructure evolution of cement mortar in accelerated carbonation reaction for different carbonation ages was carried out by X-ray computed tomography （XCT）. And the carbonation degrees ...In situ monitoring of the microstructure evolution of cement mortar in accelerated carbonation reaction for different carbonation ages was carried out by X-ray computed tomography （XCT）. And the carbonation degrees of different time were measured by the volume fraction of uncarbonated and carbonated parts. Meanwhile, we presented a model for the carbonation of cement mortar by means of X-ray computed tomography （XCT）. Based on the principles of chemical engineering processes, the reacted products become a solid inert ash layer. Finally, the model was validated with results of accelerated carbonation of cement mortar. The model is thus able to reasonably predict the carbonation ohenomena for accelerated conditions.展开更多
A comprehensive evaluation model based on improved set pair analysis is established. Considering the complexity in decision-making process, the model combines the certainties and uncertainties in the schemes, i.e., id...A comprehensive evaluation model based on improved set pair analysis is established. Considering the complexity in decision-making process, the model combines the certainties and uncertainties in the schemes, i.e., identical degree, different degree and opposite degree. The relations among different schemes are studied, and the traditional way of solving uncertainty problem is improved. By using the gray correlation to determine the difference degree, the problem of less evaluation indexes and inapparent linear relationship is solved. The difference between the evaluation parameters is smaller in both the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and fuzzy matter-element method, and the dipartite degree of the evaluation result is unobvious. However, the difference between each integrated connection degree is distinct in the improved set pair analysis. Results show that the proposed method is feasible and it obtains better effects than the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy matter-element method.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71071077)the Ministry of Education Key Project of National Educational Science Planning(DFA090215)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(20100481137)Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education(CXZZ11-0226)
文摘The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.
基金the Key Scientific Research Fund Project of Xihua University(No.Z1320406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51379179)
文摘Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to meet the actual situation. Thus, non-probabilistic reliability index is presented by comparing with the output range and the given range.
文摘Urban waste solids are now becoming one of the most crucial environmental problems. There are several different kinds of technologies normally used for waste solids disposal, among which landfill is more favorable in China than others, especially for urban waste solids. Most of the design works up to now are based on a roughly estimation of the amount of urban waste solids without any theoretical support, which lead to a series problems. To meet the basic information requirements for the design work, the amount of the urban waste solids was predicted in this research by applying the gray theoretical model GM (1,1) through non linear differential equation simulation. The model parameters were estimated with the least square method (LSM) by running a certain MATALAB program, and the hypothesis test results show that the residual between the prediction value and the actual value approximately comply with the normal distribution N (0,0 21 2), and the probability of the residual within the range (-0 17, 0 19) is more than 95%, which indicate obviously that the model can be well used for the prediction of the amount of waste solids and those had been already testified by the latest two years data about the urban waste solids from Loudi City of China. With this model, the predicted amount of the waste solids produced in Loudi City in the next 30 years is 8049000 ton in total.
文摘In order to determine the control dimensions of human body in pattern construction and provide the basis for size specification in clothing industry, a gray model is described and established in the application of predicting size specification. By comparing the features of gray model and regression model, it is proved that the former has many advantages over the latter, i.e. more practical and more effective in this application. So it is strongly suggested to apply the innovative gray model instead of the traditional regression model to facilitate the calculation procedure in pattern construction.
文摘In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.
文摘The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality.
文摘This paper StUdies soil erosion dynamics in the typical region of southem China based onremote sensing, GIS tecndques and gray forecast model. The resultS of survey on Xingguo countyshown the soil eroded area and annual soil erosion amount decreased by 19.09% and 43.05%reSPectively from 1958 to 1988. The results of gray forecast model presented that soil eroded areaincreased from 818.04 km2 in 1988 to 1276.69 km2 in 1995. in the meanthne the total soil erosiollamount decreased from 607.21×104 ba in 1988 to 472. 12 ×104 t/a in 1995. By comparing differentlanduse types, the soil loss modulus of the forest was the lowest with 177. 16~187.75t/km2. a, on thecontraly the bare land was the highest with 10626.76~11265.48 t/km2. a. so the high vegetationcoverage can decrease soil and water loss effectively.
文摘It is well known that Landsat TM images are the most widely used remote sensing data in various fields.Usually,it has 7 different electromagnetic spectrum bands,among which the sixth one has much lower ground resolution compared with the other six bands.Nevertheless,it is useful in the study of rock spectrum reflection,geothermal resources exploration,etc.To improve the ground resolution of TM6 to the level as that of the other six bands is a problem .This paper presents an algorithm based on the combination of multivariate regression model with semivariogram function which can improve the ground resolution of TM6 by "fusing" the data of other six bands.It includes the following main steps: （1） testing the correlation between TM6 and one of TM15,7.If the correlation coefficient between TM6 and another one is greater than a given threshold value,then select the band to the regression analysis as an argument.（2） calculating the size of the template window within which some parameters needed by the regression model will be calculated; （3） replacing the original pixel values of TM6 by those obtained by regression analysis; （4） using image entropy as a measurement to evaluate the quality of the fused image of TM6.The basic mechanism of the algorithm is discussed and the V C ++ program for implementing this algorithm is also presented.A simple application example is given in the last part of this paper,showing the effectiveness of the algorithm.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60903111)
文摘A novel algorithm to voxelize 3D mesh models with gray levels is presented in this paper.The key innovation of our method is to decide the gray level of a voxel according to the total area of all surfaces contained by it.During the preprocessing stage,a set of voxels in the extended bounding box of each triangle is established.Then we travel each triangle and compute the areas between it and its set of voxels one by one.Finally,each voxel is arranged a discrete gray level from 0 to 255.Experiments show that our algorithm gets a comparatively perfect result compared with the prevenient ones and approaches the original models in a more accurate way.
基金Supported by Special Project for Construction of Modern Agricultural Industrial Technology System(Grant No.:CARS-46-05)Scientific and Technological Project of Huazhong Agricultural University(Grant No.:52902-0900206038)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No:31201719)
文摘To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then,it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error,thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore,it adopts the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55. 32,57. 46,59. 72,62. 02 and 64. 43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3. 7% ,much higher than the objective of 2. 2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development ( 2011 to 2015) . The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.
基金Supported by National Social Science Foundation of China(08BMZ042)~~
文摘[Objective] Taken the Linjiang tourism as an example, tourism forecast system was established, difficulties related to the work of tourist area were solved. [Method] Dynamic predicted response model of Lijiang tourism market was established, through the gray correlation model GM (1, 1) and time-series method, using a computer simulation program for the actual model of operation, Lijiang tourism prospects were predicted and predicting results were evaluated. [Result] Total revenue of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a= 0.572 3 from 2009 to 2011, internal control parameters u=0.393 7, x(t+1) =-0.563 3exp(-0.572 3t)+0.688 0; total reception numbers of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a = 0.125 6, internal control parameters u = 344. 326 0, x(t+1)=3 102.483 5 exp(0.125 6 t)-2 741.283 5. Test results of two models showed that fitting degrees were good, and at the same time predicted that total revenue of Lijiang tourism reached 13 000 000 000, and total reception numbers reached 8 800 000. [Conclusion] This predicted system can carry out precision forecast for other tourist areas when cannot get all the information.
文摘Because the physiological characteristics and melanin regulation mechanism of zebrafish are highly similar with those of humans,it is of high reference value to use zebrafish model in the evaluation of cosmetic whitening efficacy.In this study,zebrafish embryos are used as biological models to evaluate the whitening efficacy of six kinds of cosmetics raw materials,such as antioxidant,preservative and essence,and the formula of facial cleanser and facial mask products,and the limitations of the zebrafish melanin production grayscale detection method in practical application are discussed.The results show that the selection of different types of components can also reduce the production of melanin and show whitening effect.It can be seen that the gray scale method of melanin production in zebrafish is suitable for the evaluation of the efficacy of raw materials.In practical application,due to the complexity of the formula,the toxic effects of different types of ingredients may interfere with the melanin generation of zebrafish,affecting the judgment and evaluation of whitening efficacy.For the detection of whitening efficacy of products,a comprehensive evaluation system should be built together with other methods to accurately evaluate the whitening efficacy.
基金Higher Education Commission,Pakistan,under the National Research Program for Universities Project,Grant/Award Number:NBU-FPEJ-2024-1243-02。
文摘A grey-box modelling framework was developed for the estimation of cut point temperature of a crude distillation unit(CDU)under uncertainty in crude composition and process conditions.First principle(FP)model of CDU was developed for Pakistani crudes from Zamzama and Kunnar fields.A hybrid methodology based on the integration of Taguchi method and genetic algorithm(GA)was employed to estimate the optimal cut point temperature for various sets of process variables.Optimised datasets were utilised to develop an artificial neural networks(ANN)model for the prediction of optimum values of cut points.The ANN model was then used to replace the hybrid framework of the Taguchi method and the GA.The integration of the ANN and FP model makes it a grey-box(GB)model.For the case of Zamama crude,the GB model helped in the decrease of up to 38.93%in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and an 8.2%increase in diesel production compared to the stand-alone FP model under uncertainty.Similarly,for Kunnar crude,up to 18.87%decrease in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and a 33.96%increase in diesel production was observed in comparison to the stand-alone FP model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7117111370901041)
文摘This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h variables grey forecasting model （GM （1, h））, always aggregate the main system variable and independent variables in a linear form rather than a nonlinear form, while a nonlinear form could be used in more cases than the linear form. And the nonlinear form could aggregate collinear independent factors, which widely lie in many multi-factor forecasting problems. To overcome this problem, a new approach, named as the Solow residual method, is proposed to aggregate independent factors. And a new expansion model, feedback multi-factor discrete grey forecasting model based on the Solow residual method （abbreviated as FDGM （1, h））, is proposed accordingly. Then the feedback control equation and the parameters＇ solution of the FDGM （1, h） model are given. Finally, a real application is used to test the modelling accuracy of the FDGM （1, h） model. Results show that the FDGM （1, h） model is much better than the nonhomogeneous discrete grey forecasting model （NDGM） and the GM （1, h） model.
基金co-supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (20090461314)
文摘Dynamic infrared scene simulation is for discovering and solving the problems encountered in designing, developing and manufacturing infrared imaging guidance weapons. The infrared scene simulation is explored by using the digital grayscale modulation method. The infrared image modulation model of a digital micro-mirror device （DMD） is established and then the infrared scene simulator prototype which is based on DMD grayscale modulation is developed. To evaluate its main parameters such as resolution, contrast, minimum temperature difference, gray scale, various DMD subsystems such as signal decoding, image normalization, synchronization drive, pulse width modulation （PWM） and DMD chips are designed. The infrared scene simulator is tested on a certain infrared missile seeker. The test results show preliminarily that the infrared scene simulator has high gray scale, small geometrical distortion and highly resolvable imaging resolution and contrast and yields high-fidelity images, thus being able to meet the requirements for the infrared scene simulation inside a laboratory.
基金supported by the National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents, Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (No. 2017M610740)supports from Hefei General Aviation Research Institute, Beihang University
文摘The study of the development cost of general aviation aircraft is limited by small samples with many cost-driven factors. This paper investigates a parametric modeling method for prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft. The proposed technique depends on some principal components, acquired by utilizing P value analysis and gray correlation analysis. According to these principal components, the corresponding linear regression and BP neural network models are established respectively. The feasibility and accuracy of the P value analysis are verified by comparing results of model fitting and prediction. A sensitivity analysis related to model precision and suitability is discussed in detail. Results obtained in this study show that the proposed method not only has a certain degree of versatility, but also provides a preliminary prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61304208)Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Province Education Department(18C0003)+2 种基金Research project on teaching reform in colleges and universities of Hunan Province Education Department(20190147)Changsha City Science and Technology Plan Program(K1501013-11)Hunan Normal University University-Industry Cooperation.This work is implemented at the 2011 Collaborative Innovation Center for Development and Utilization of Finance and Economics Big Data Property,Universities of Hunan Province,Open project,grant number 20181901CRP04.
文摘There are many influencing factors of fiscal revenue,and traditional forecasting methods cannot handle the feature dimensions well,which leads to serious over-fitting of the forecast results and unable to make a good estimate of the true future trend.The grey neural network model fused with Lasso regression is a comprehensive prediction model that combines the grey prediction model and the BP neural network model after dimensionality reduction using Lasso.It can reduce the dimensionality of the original data,make separate predictions for each explanatory variable,and then use neural networks to make multivariate predictions,thereby making up for the shortcomings of traditional methods of insufficient prediction accuracy.In this paper,we took the financial revenue data of China’s Hunan Province from 2005 to 2019 as the object of analysis.Firstly,we used Lasso regression to reduce the dimensionality of the data.Because the grey prediction model has the excellent predictive performance for small data volumes,then we chose the grey prediction model to obtain the predicted values of all explanatory variables in 2020,2021 by using the data of 2005–2019.Finally,considering that fiscal revenue is affected by many factors,we applied the BP neural network,which has a good effect on multiple inputs,to make the final forecast of fiscal revenue.The experimental results show that the combined model has a good effect in financial revenue forecasting.
基金Funded by the National Basic Research Program of China(973Project)(Nos.2009CB623200 and 2011CB013800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51178103)the Scientific Research Foundation of the Graduate School of Southeast University(YBJJ1113)
文摘In situ monitoring of the microstructure evolution of cement mortar in accelerated carbonation reaction for different carbonation ages was carried out by X-ray computed tomography （XCT）. And the carbonation degrees of different time were measured by the volume fraction of uncarbonated and carbonated parts. Meanwhile, we presented a model for the carbonation of cement mortar by means of X-ray computed tomography （XCT）. Based on the principles of chemical engineering processes, the reacted products become a solid inert ash layer. Finally, the model was validated with results of accelerated carbonation of cement mortar. The model is thus able to reasonably predict the carbonation ohenomena for accelerated conditions.
基金Supported by Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51021004)Tianjin Research Program of Application Foundation and Advanced Technology(No.12JCZDJC29200)National Key Technology R&D Program in the 12th Five-Year Plan of China(No.2011BAB10B06)
文摘A comprehensive evaluation model based on improved set pair analysis is established. Considering the complexity in decision-making process, the model combines the certainties and uncertainties in the schemes, i.e., identical degree, different degree and opposite degree. The relations among different schemes are studied, and the traditional way of solving uncertainty problem is improved. By using the gray correlation to determine the difference degree, the problem of less evaluation indexes and inapparent linear relationship is solved. The difference between the evaluation parameters is smaller in both the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and fuzzy matter-element method, and the dipartite degree of the evaluation result is unobvious. However, the difference between each integrated connection degree is distinct in the improved set pair analysis. Results show that the proposed method is feasible and it obtains better effects than the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy matter-element method.
