In view of the low performance of adaptive asymmetric joint diagonalization（AAJD）, especially its failure in tracking high maneuvering targets, an adaptive asymmetric joint diagonalization with deflation（AAJDd） al...In view of the low performance of adaptive asymmetric joint diagonalization（AAJD）, especially its failure in tracking high maneuvering targets, an adaptive asymmetric joint diagonalization with deflation（AAJDd） algorithm is proposed. The AAJDd algorithm improves performance by estimating the direction of departure（DOD） and direction of arrival（DOA） directly, avoiding the reuse of the previous moment information in the AAJD algorithm.On this basis, the idea of sequential estimation of the principal component is introduced to turn the matrix operation into a constant operation, reducing the amount of computation and speeding up the convergence. Meanwhile, the eigenvalue is obtained, which can be used to estimate the number of targets. Then, the estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance technique（ESPRIT） algorithm is improved to realize the automatic matching and association of DOD and DOA. The simulation results show that the AAJDd algorithm has higher tracking performance than the AAJD algorithm, especially when the high maneuvering target is tracked. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified.展开更多
Background/Aims: Recently, endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation (EPLBD) using a large balloon (12 - 20 mm) for extraction of difficult common bile duct (CBD) stones has been widely accepted with favorable outco...Background/Aims: Recently, endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation (EPLBD) using a large balloon (12 - 20 mm) for extraction of difficult common bile duct (CBD) stones has been widely accepted with favorable outcomes. However, there is no consensus with regard to the ballooning time. The aim of our study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of immediate balloon deflation in EPLBD for the treatment of difficult bile duct stone. Methods: This was a retrospective study of 80 consecutive patients with bile duct stones who were treated with an immediate balloon deflation method in EPLBD combined with endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) between January 2010 and December 2012. Overall success rate, success rate at first ERCP, and the frequency of mechanical lithotripsy for complete stone removal were assessed for efficacy and safety was evaluated by assessing major complications. Results: Overall success rate for complete stone removal was high (78/80, 97.5%) and success rate for complete stone removal at first ERCP was 86.3% (69/80). The use of mechanical lithotripsy was 0% (0/80). The overall complication rate was favorable (5/80, 6.3%). PostERCP pancreatitis was observed in 3 patients (two: mild, one: moderate). In subgroup analysis, the presence of periampullary diverticulum was the only factor affecting the success rate at first ERCP. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the favorable outcome of immediate balloon deflation for treatment of difficult CBD stones and can be considered for clinical application.展开更多
By wind tunnel experiment, we studied the deflation rates of 8 different clastic sediments in the arid regions of China, discussed the sources of aeolian sand and their influence on the development of sand dunes and f...By wind tunnel experiment, we studied the deflation rates of 8 different clastic sediments in the arid regions of China, discussed the sources of aeolian sand and their influence on the development of sand dunes and formation of sand deserts from the view of dynamics of wind erosion. The average deflation rates of 8 typical clastic sediments in the arid regions of China can be arranged in the order of lacustrine sand 〉 alluvial sand 〉 weathered sandstone and shale 〉 pluvial sediments 〉 fluvioglacial sand 〉 weathered granite 〉 slope deposit 〉 glacial sediments. The deflation rates exhibited strong positive correlations with the erodible particle （0.063 2mm） content and sorting features. In contrast, the deflation rates had obvious negative correlations with the contents of silt clay （〈0.063 mm） and gravel （〉2 mm）. According to the deflation rates, the 8 typical clastic sediments can be divided into four categories： （1） lacustrine and alluvial sand, which are readily prone to wind erosion, assumed to be the main source of aeolian sand; （2） weathered sandstone and shale, pluvial sediments and fluvioglacial sand with considerable deflation rates, might be the secondary source of aeolian sand; （3） weathered granite and slope deposit having the lower deflation rates, could supply a little aeolian sand; and （4） glacial sediments with a strong anti-erodibility, could hardly offer any aeolian sand. In addition to the strong wind conditions, the exposure of extensive lacustrine sand induced by the desiccation of inland lake basin, as well as the pre-sorting of clastic sediments by flowing water should be the key factors influencing the development of sand deserts in China. The possible reason the sand deserts in China being mostly distributed around the inland lake basins and along riverbanks could be better understood through sand source analysis.展开更多
The static performance of inflatable structures has been well studied and the dynamic deployment simulation has received much attention. However, very few studies focus on its deflation behavior. Although there are se...The static performance of inflatable structures has been well studied and the dynamic deployment simulation has received much attention. However, very few studies focus on its deflation behavior. Although there are several dynamic finite element algorithms that can be applied to the deflation simulation, their computation costs are expensive, especially for large scale structures. In this work, a simple method based on classic thermodynamics and the analytical relationship between air and membrane was proposed to efficiently analyze the air state variables under the condition of ventilation. Combined with failure analysis of static bearing capacity, a fast incremental analytical method was presented to predict both elastic and post wrinkling deflation process of inflatable structures. Comparisons between simplified analysis, dynamic finite element simulation, and a full-scale experimental test are presented and the suitability of this simple method for solving the air state and predicting the deflation behavior of inflatable structures is proved.展开更多
While the literature on inflation and stock prices is plentiful,there is little literature on deflation and stock prices.This paper explores the empirical data and makes a theoretical analysis of the likely impact on ...While the literature on inflation and stock prices is plentiful,there is little literature on deflation and stock prices.This paper explores the empirical data and makes a theoretical analysis of the likely impact on stock prices when expectations change from inflation to deflation.Deflation has a bad name among some economists and most investors.However,from a stock market perspective,deflations’bad name may not be well-deserved.Several observations support this:1)The 1930s was a statistical outlier and not representative for a deflationary period and deflation does not seem to create recessions,causality goes the other way;2)real stock returns are positive and around average in the periods leading up to and following the onset of deflation;3)when moving from low inflation to mild deflation,P/E ratios are virtually unchanged;and 4)peak P/E ratios seem to be reached at inflation rates close to zero.The author proposes three possible explanations for the seemingly disconnect between the empirical data and the“default”ex ante belief of most economists and investors:availability heurist,deflation illusion,and tax related issues in connection with the tax hypothesis.展开更多
This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price risin...This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.展开更多
This paper is an outcome of comprehensive and systematic research on whether China exports deflation and inflation using the newly developed DAG technique. Our results indicate that in the international transmission o...This paper is an outcome of comprehensive and systematic research on whether China exports deflation and inflation using the newly developed DAG technique. Our results indicate that in the international transmission of inflation, the United States, as the world's largest economy, plays a dominant role. In contrast, during both deflation and inflation periods, China has a minimal impact on the price levels of major trading partners. Thus China is not to be blamed for global deflation or inflation. This research has made use of DAG and some other techniques to yield reliable and reasonable conclusions.展开更多
Complete bearing spiral case has not been applied to large power stations in China so far. The proposal of applying complete bearing spiral case necessitates an analysis of the reliability of the spiral case structure...Complete bearing spiral case has not been applied to large power stations in China so far. The proposal of applying complete bearing spiral case necessitates an analysis of the reliability of the spiral case structure and the security of units under various working conditions. In combination with practice of a project, this paper presents a three-dimensional nonlinear finite element static analysis of the concrete using a concrete smeared crack model by means of the well-known finite element method （FEM） software ABAQUS. The stress distribution of the spiral case and reinforcing bars, the range of damages in surrounding concrete, and the displacement of structure are quantified. The computational results indicate that the embedment method ensures the structure＇s safety in strength. At the same time, the result shows that this embedment is a kind of preponderant method for embedment in aspects of economy and technique of construction, and the application of this embedment method to the hydropower station is feasible provided that some proper engineering measures are taken to constrain the width of the concrete in accord with the code＇s requirements. The paper proves the security and reliability of the structural design of spiral case in hydropower station accordingly.展开更多
The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors...The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors.Based on the traditional Poisson model and the negative binomial model,different forms of zero-inflated and hurdle models were applied to spruce-fir mixed forests data to simulate the number of dead trees.By comparing the residuals and Vuong test statistics,the zero-inflated negative binomial model performed best.A random effect was added to improve the model accuracy;however,the mixed-effects zero-inflated model did not show increased advantages.According to the model principle,the zeroinflated negative binomial model was the most suitable,indicating that the"0"events in this study,mainly from the sample"0",i.e.,the zero mortality data,are largely due to the limitations of the experimental design and sample selection.These results also show that the number of dead trees in the diameter class is positively correlated with the number of trees in that class and the mean stand diameter,and inversely related to class size,and slope and aspect of the site.展开更多
Objective Sub-health status has progressively gained more attention from both medical professionals and the publics. Treating the number of sub-health symptoms as count data rather than dichotomous data helps to compl...Objective Sub-health status has progressively gained more attention from both medical professionals and the publics. Treating the number of sub-health symptoms as count data rather than dichotomous data helps to completely and accurately analyze findings in sub-healthy population. This study aims to compare the goodness of fit for count outcome models to identify the optimum model for sub-health study.Methods The sample of the study derived from a large-scale population survey on physiological and psychological constants from 2007 to 2011 in 4 provinces and 2 autonomous regions in China. We constructed four count outcome models using SAS: Poisson model, negative binomial (NB) model, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. The number of sub-health symptoms was used as the main outcome measure. The alpha dispersion parameter and O test were used to identify over-dispersed data, and Vuong test was used to evaluate the excessive zero count. The goodness of fit of regression models were determined by predictive probability curves and statistics of likelihood ratio test.Results Of all 78 307 respondents, 38.53% reported no sub-health symptoms. The mean number of sub-health symptoms was 2.98, and the standard deviation was 3.72. The statistic O in over-dispersion test was 720.995 (P<0.001); the estimated alpha was 0.618 (95% CI: 0.600-0.636) comparing ZINB model and ZIP model; Vuong test statistic Z was 45.487. These results indicated over-dispersion of the data and excessive zero counts in this sub-health study. ZINB model had the largest log likelihood (-167 519), the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion coefficient (335 112) and the smallest Bayesian information criterion coefficient (335455),indicating its best goodness of fit. The predictive probabilities for most counts in ZINB model fitted the observed counts best. The logit section of ZINB model analysis showed that age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity and obesity were determinants for presence of sub-health symptoms; the binomial negative section of ZINB model analysis showed that sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity, marital status and obesity had significant effect on the severity of sub-health.Conclusions All tests for goodness of fit and the predictive probability curve produced the same finding that ZINB model was the optimum model for exploring the influencing factors of sub-health symptoms.展开更多
Many researchers have discussed zero-inflated univariate distributions. These univariate models are not suitable, for modeling events that involve different types of counts or defects. To model several types of defect...Many researchers have discussed zero-inflated univariate distributions. These univariate models are not suitable, for modeling events that involve different types of counts or defects. To model several types of defects, multivariate Poisson model is one of the appropriate model. This can further be modified to incorporate inflation at zero and we can have multivariate zero-inflated Poisson distribution. In the present article, we introduce a new Bivariate Zero Inflated Power Series Distribution and discuss inference related to the parameters involved in the model. We also discuss the inference related to Bivariate Zero Inflated Poisson Distribution. The model has been applied to a real life data. Extension to k-variate zero inflated power series distribution is also discussed.展开更多
There are two weaknesses in current researches into human casualty of ship collision.One is that the range of injuries or fatalities is restricted to the maximum number of casualties in a particular sample,which may n...There are two weaknesses in current researches into human casualty of ship collision.One is that the range of injuries or fatalities is restricted to the maximum number of casualties in a particular sample,which may not cover all the possible numbers of casualties in the future.International Maritime Organization(IMO)employed the injured or dead percentage of all the persons on board to represent casualties,but it only provided several discrete values to quantify human losses in different scenarios.The other is that the assumption that the distributions of the injuries or fatalities follow certain distribution,such as negative binomial and Poisson distributions is left to be statistically tested.Firstly,this study considers casualty rate,including injury and fatality rates,as random variables;the interval of the variables are from 0 to 1.Then,the distributions of the variables are investigated using historical data.From historical data,we can find that there are many zeros.Zeroinflated models are proved to be effective in processing data with inflated zeros.Furthermore,the probability density of the variables decreases rapidly as the casualty rate becomes larger.Thus,zero-inflated exponential distribution is assumed to fit the data.The parameters of zero-inflated exponential distribution are calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method.Finally,the assumption is tested by chi-square test.The zeroinflated exponential distribution can be used to generate human losses as a part of consequences in the simulation of ship collision risk.展开更多
A new three-parameter discrete distribution called the zero-inflated cosine geometric(ZICG)distribution is proposed for the first time herein.It can be used to analyze over-dispersed count data with excess zeros.The b...A new three-parameter discrete distribution called the zero-inflated cosine geometric(ZICG)distribution is proposed for the first time herein.It can be used to analyze over-dispersed count data with excess zeros.The basic statistical properties of the new distribution,such as the moment generating function,mean,and variance are presented.Furthermore,confidence intervals are constructed by using the Wald,Bayesian,and highest posterior density(HPD)methods to estimate the true confidence intervals for the parameters of the ZICG distribution.Their efficacies were investigated by using both simulation and real-world data comprising the number of daily COVID-19 positive cases at the Olympic Games in Tokyo 2020.The results show that the HPD interval performed better than the other methods in terms of coverage probability and average length in most cases studied.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6167145361201379)Anhui Natural Science Foundation of China(1608085MF123)
文摘In view of the low performance of adaptive asymmetric joint diagonalization（AAJD）, especially its failure in tracking high maneuvering targets, an adaptive asymmetric joint diagonalization with deflation（AAJDd） algorithm is proposed. The AAJDd algorithm improves performance by estimating the direction of departure（DOD） and direction of arrival（DOA） directly, avoiding the reuse of the previous moment information in the AAJD algorithm.On this basis, the idea of sequential estimation of the principal component is introduced to turn the matrix operation into a constant operation, reducing the amount of computation and speeding up the convergence. Meanwhile, the eigenvalue is obtained, which can be used to estimate the number of targets. Then, the estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance technique（ESPRIT） algorithm is improved to realize the automatic matching and association of DOD and DOA. The simulation results show that the AAJDd algorithm has higher tracking performance than the AAJD algorithm, especially when the high maneuvering target is tracked. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified.
文摘Background/Aims: Recently, endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation (EPLBD) using a large balloon (12 - 20 mm) for extraction of difficult common bile duct (CBD) stones has been widely accepted with favorable outcomes. However, there is no consensus with regard to the ballooning time. The aim of our study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of immediate balloon deflation in EPLBD for the treatment of difficult bile duct stone. Methods: This was a retrospective study of 80 consecutive patients with bile duct stones who were treated with an immediate balloon deflation method in EPLBD combined with endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) between January 2010 and December 2012. Overall success rate, success rate at first ERCP, and the frequency of mechanical lithotripsy for complete stone removal were assessed for efficacy and safety was evaluated by assessing major complications. Results: Overall success rate for complete stone removal was high (78/80, 97.5%) and success rate for complete stone removal at first ERCP was 86.3% (69/80). The use of mechanical lithotripsy was 0% (0/80). The overall complication rate was favorable (5/80, 6.3%). PostERCP pancreatitis was observed in 3 patients (two: mild, one: moderate). In subgroup analysis, the presence of periampullary diverticulum was the only factor affecting the success rate at first ERCP. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the favorable outcome of immediate balloon deflation for treatment of difficult CBD stones and can be considered for clinical application.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40471014 The Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2005BA517A-11
文摘By wind tunnel experiment, we studied the deflation rates of 8 different clastic sediments in the arid regions of China, discussed the sources of aeolian sand and their influence on the development of sand dunes and formation of sand deserts from the view of dynamics of wind erosion. The average deflation rates of 8 typical clastic sediments in the arid regions of China can be arranged in the order of lacustrine sand 〉 alluvial sand 〉 weathered sandstone and shale 〉 pluvial sediments 〉 fluvioglacial sand 〉 weathered granite 〉 slope deposit 〉 glacial sediments. The deflation rates exhibited strong positive correlations with the erodible particle （0.063 2mm） content and sorting features. In contrast, the deflation rates had obvious negative correlations with the contents of silt clay （〈0.063 mm） and gravel （〉2 mm）. According to the deflation rates, the 8 typical clastic sediments can be divided into four categories： （1） lacustrine and alluvial sand, which are readily prone to wind erosion, assumed to be the main source of aeolian sand; （2） weathered sandstone and shale, pluvial sediments and fluvioglacial sand with considerable deflation rates, might be the secondary source of aeolian sand; （3） weathered granite and slope deposit having the lower deflation rates, could supply a little aeolian sand; and （4） glacial sediments with a strong anti-erodibility, could hardly offer any aeolian sand. In addition to the strong wind conditions, the exposure of extensive lacustrine sand induced by the desiccation of inland lake basin, as well as the pre-sorting of clastic sediments by flowing water should be the key factors influencing the development of sand deserts in China. The possible reason the sand deserts in China being mostly distributed around the inland lake basins and along riverbanks could be better understood through sand source analysis.
基金Projects(51178263,51378307)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The static performance of inflatable structures has been well studied and the dynamic deployment simulation has received much attention. However, very few studies focus on its deflation behavior. Although there are several dynamic finite element algorithms that can be applied to the deflation simulation, their computation costs are expensive, especially for large scale structures. In this work, a simple method based on classic thermodynamics and the analytical relationship between air and membrane was proposed to efficiently analyze the air state variables under the condition of ventilation. Combined with failure analysis of static bearing capacity, a fast incremental analytical method was presented to predict both elastic and post wrinkling deflation process of inflatable structures. Comparisons between simplified analysis, dynamic finite element simulation, and a full-scale experimental test are presented and the suitability of this simple method for solving the air state and predicting the deflation behavior of inflatable structures is proved.
文摘While the literature on inflation and stock prices is plentiful,there is little literature on deflation and stock prices.This paper explores the empirical data and makes a theoretical analysis of the likely impact on stock prices when expectations change from inflation to deflation.Deflation has a bad name among some economists and most investors.However,from a stock market perspective,deflations’bad name may not be well-deserved.Several observations support this:1)The 1930s was a statistical outlier and not representative for a deflationary period and deflation does not seem to create recessions,causality goes the other way;2)real stock returns are positive and around average in the periods leading up to and following the onset of deflation;3)when moving from low inflation to mild deflation,P/E ratios are virtually unchanged;and 4)peak P/E ratios seem to be reached at inflation rates close to zero.The author proposes three possible explanations for the seemingly disconnect between the empirical data and the“default”ex ante belief of most economists and investors:availability heurist,deflation illusion,and tax related issues in connection with the tax hypothesis.
文摘This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.
基金Financial support from the research project of humanities and social sciences of the Chinese Ministry of Education (08JC790104)the growing seedling fund of humanities and social sciences of Guangdong University (WYM08024)development project for young teacher of Sun Yat-Sen University (09WKTY41)
文摘This paper is an outcome of comprehensive and systematic research on whether China exports deflation and inflation using the newly developed DAG technique. Our results indicate that in the international transmission of inflation, the United States, as the world's largest economy, plays a dominant role. In contrast, during both deflation and inflation periods, China has a minimal impact on the price levels of major trading partners. Thus China is not to be blamed for global deflation or inflation. This research has made use of DAG and some other techniques to yield reliable and reasonable conclusions.
基金Supported by the Sustentation Plan Projects for Out-standing Young Teachers of the Ministry of Education (20011879)
文摘Complete bearing spiral case has not been applied to large power stations in China so far. The proposal of applying complete bearing spiral case necessitates an analysis of the reliability of the spiral case structure and the security of units under various working conditions. In combination with practice of a project, this paper presents a three-dimensional nonlinear finite element static analysis of the concrete using a concrete smeared crack model by means of the well-known finite element method （FEM） software ABAQUS. The stress distribution of the spiral case and reinforcing bars, the range of damages in surrounding concrete, and the displacement of structure are quantified. The computational results indicate that the embedment method ensures the structure＇s safety in strength. At the same time, the result shows that this embedment is a kind of preponderant method for embedment in aspects of economy and technique of construction, and the application of this embedment method to the hydropower station is feasible provided that some proper engineering measures are taken to constrain the width of the concrete in accord with the code＇s requirements. The paper proves the security and reliability of the structural design of spiral case in hydropower station accordingly.
基金supported by the "948" Project of the State Forestry Administration of China(No.2013-4-66)
文摘The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors.Based on the traditional Poisson model and the negative binomial model,different forms of zero-inflated and hurdle models were applied to spruce-fir mixed forests data to simulate the number of dead trees.By comparing the residuals and Vuong test statistics,the zero-inflated negative binomial model performed best.A random effect was added to improve the model accuracy;however,the mixed-effects zero-inflated model did not show increased advantages.According to the model principle,the zeroinflated negative binomial model was the most suitable,indicating that the"0"events in this study,mainly from the sample"0",i.e.,the zero mortality data,are largely due to the limitations of the experimental design and sample selection.These results also show that the number of dead trees in the diameter class is positively correlated with the number of trees in that class and the mean stand diameter,and inversely related to class size,and slope and aspect of the site.
基金supported by the Basic Performance Key Project,the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(No.2006FY110300)
文摘Objective Sub-health status has progressively gained more attention from both medical professionals and the publics. Treating the number of sub-health symptoms as count data rather than dichotomous data helps to completely and accurately analyze findings in sub-healthy population. This study aims to compare the goodness of fit for count outcome models to identify the optimum model for sub-health study.Methods The sample of the study derived from a large-scale population survey on physiological and psychological constants from 2007 to 2011 in 4 provinces and 2 autonomous regions in China. We constructed four count outcome models using SAS: Poisson model, negative binomial (NB) model, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. The number of sub-health symptoms was used as the main outcome measure. The alpha dispersion parameter and O test were used to identify over-dispersed data, and Vuong test was used to evaluate the excessive zero count. The goodness of fit of regression models were determined by predictive probability curves and statistics of likelihood ratio test.Results Of all 78 307 respondents, 38.53% reported no sub-health symptoms. The mean number of sub-health symptoms was 2.98, and the standard deviation was 3.72. The statistic O in over-dispersion test was 720.995 (P<0.001); the estimated alpha was 0.618 (95% CI: 0.600-0.636) comparing ZINB model and ZIP model; Vuong test statistic Z was 45.487. These results indicated over-dispersion of the data and excessive zero counts in this sub-health study. ZINB model had the largest log likelihood (-167 519), the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion coefficient (335 112) and the smallest Bayesian information criterion coefficient (335455),indicating its best goodness of fit. The predictive probabilities for most counts in ZINB model fitted the observed counts best. The logit section of ZINB model analysis showed that age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity and obesity were determinants for presence of sub-health symptoms; the binomial negative section of ZINB model analysis showed that sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity, marital status and obesity had significant effect on the severity of sub-health.Conclusions All tests for goodness of fit and the predictive probability curve produced the same finding that ZINB model was the optimum model for exploring the influencing factors of sub-health symptoms.
文摘Many researchers have discussed zero-inflated univariate distributions. These univariate models are not suitable, for modeling events that involve different types of counts or defects. To model several types of defects, multivariate Poisson model is one of the appropriate model. This can further be modified to incorporate inflation at zero and we can have multivariate zero-inflated Poisson distribution. In the present article, we introduce a new Bivariate Zero Inflated Power Series Distribution and discuss inference related to the parameters involved in the model. We also discuss the inference related to Bivariate Zero Inflated Poisson Distribution. The model has been applied to a real life data. Extension to k-variate zero inflated power series distribution is also discussed.
基金the Liberal Arts and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education in China(No.19YJCGJW003)
文摘There are two weaknesses in current researches into human casualty of ship collision.One is that the range of injuries or fatalities is restricted to the maximum number of casualties in a particular sample,which may not cover all the possible numbers of casualties in the future.International Maritime Organization(IMO)employed the injured or dead percentage of all the persons on board to represent casualties,but it only provided several discrete values to quantify human losses in different scenarios.The other is that the assumption that the distributions of the injuries or fatalities follow certain distribution,such as negative binomial and Poisson distributions is left to be statistically tested.Firstly,this study considers casualty rate,including injury and fatality rates,as random variables;the interval of the variables are from 0 to 1.Then,the distributions of the variables are investigated using historical data.From historical data,we can find that there are many zeros.Zeroinflated models are proved to be effective in processing data with inflated zeros.Furthermore,the probability density of the variables decreases rapidly as the casualty rate becomes larger.Thus,zero-inflated exponential distribution is assumed to fit the data.The parameters of zero-inflated exponential distribution are calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method.Finally,the assumption is tested by chi-square test.The zeroinflated exponential distribution can be used to generate human losses as a part of consequences in the simulation of ship collision risk.
基金support from the National Science,Research and Innovation Fund (NSRF)King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok (Grant No.KMUTNB-FF-65-22).
文摘A new three-parameter discrete distribution called the zero-inflated cosine geometric(ZICG)distribution is proposed for the first time herein.It can be used to analyze over-dispersed count data with excess zeros.The basic statistical properties of the new distribution,such as the moment generating function,mean,and variance are presented.Furthermore,confidence intervals are constructed by using the Wald,Bayesian,and highest posterior density(HPD)methods to estimate the true confidence intervals for the parameters of the ZICG distribution.Their efficacies were investigated by using both simulation and real-world data comprising the number of daily COVID-19 positive cases at the Olympic Games in Tokyo 2020.The results show that the HPD interval performed better than the other methods in terms of coverage probability and average length in most cases studied.
