Background:China accounts for one-quarter of the world’s diabetes population,with significant subnational disparities.However,none of the available data have provided comprehensive estimates and projections at both r...Background:China accounts for one-quarter of the world’s diabetes population,with significant subnational disparities.However,none of the available data have provided comprehensive estimates and projections at both regional and national levels in diabetes prevention and management.This study aimed to explore the temporal trends and geographical variations in the prevalence and non-fatal burden of diabetes by age and sex across China from 2005 to 2023,and to forecast diabetes prevalence through 2050.Methods:We conducted a population-based study based on the nationally representative surveys,and literature reviews.Using the DisMod-MR model and Chinese-specific disease disability weights,we estimated the non-fatal burdens of diabetes,including prevalence and years lived with disability(YLDs),across sexes,age groups,and locations.The temporal trend change was measured as the average annual percent change.The effect of the human development index on burdens was assessed by applying Spearman’s rank correlation analysis.We further projected diabetes prevalence to 2050 under 2 scenarios,the natural trend and the effective intervention on body mass index(BMI).Results:In 2023,an estimated 233 million individuals in China were living with diabetes.Compared to 2005,the agestandardized rate(ASR)of prevalence has increased by nearly 50%,from 7.53%(95%CI 7.00-8.10)to 13.7%(95%CI 12.6-14.8)in 2023.The ASR of YLDs was estimated at 19.1 per 1000 population(95%CI 18.6-19.5)in 2023,compared to 10.5 per 1000 population in 2005.The ASR of prevalence and YLDs was consistently higher in males than in females.The provinces with the highest diabetes prevalence and disease burden were Beijing,Tianjin,and Shanghai.Our forecast results suggest that if existing trends continue,the prevalence of obesity will reach 29.1%(95%CI 22.2-38.2)nationally by 2050,with some provinces in the northern region observing a prevalence of over 40%.Conversely,if effective obesity interventions were implemented,the growth in diabetes prevalence could potentially be suppressed by nearly 50%.Conclusions:The health burden and economic cost associated with diabetes are profound.There is an urgent need to scale up preventive efforts and improve population awareness to enhance disease management and achieve optimal treatment outcomes.展开更多
目的基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)研究,对比日本、印度、美国、英国和全球,分析中国屈光不正疾病负担现状及变化趋势。方法从全球健康交流数据库获取1990—2019年屈光不正的患病率、伤残损伤寿命年(years lived with...目的基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)研究,对比日本、印度、美国、英国和全球,分析中国屈光不正疾病负担现状及变化趋势。方法从全球健康交流数据库获取1990—2019年屈光不正的患病率、伤残损伤寿命年(years lived with disability,YLD)率等指标,利用Joinpoint等软件分析屈光不正的疾病负担及变化趋势。结果2019年中国屈光不正人数超过2700万,患病率和YLD率分别为19.18‰和89.40/10万。1990—2019年,全球范围内屈光不正患病率和YLD率均呈增长趋势(印度除外),中国增幅最大(分别上升53.21%、53.96%)。中国、日本、美国和英国年龄标化YLD率均低于全球平均水平,但中国的年龄标化YLD率高于发达国家(日本、美国和英国)。结论1990—2019年,中国屈光不正的控制与发达国家有一定差距,仍需以全球角度了解疾病现状,以期更好的防控屈光不正。展开更多
Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billio...Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billion on a global scale in 2008. This paper aims to understand the economic burden of lung cancer in terms of disability adjusted life years(DALY) in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore.Methods: The years of life lost(YLL) and years lost due to disability(YLD) were calculated using the formula developed by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability for diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. The same formula is represented in the Global Burden of Disease template provided by the World Health Organization. Appropriate assumptions were made when data were unavailable and projections were performed using regression analysis to obtain data for 2015.Results: The total DALYs due to lung cancer in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore were 91,695, 38,584, and 12,435,respectively, and the corresponding DALY rates per a population of 1,000 were 4.0, 0.4, and 2.2, respectively, with a discount rate of 3%. When researchers calculated DALYs without the discount rate, the burden of disease increased substantially; the DALYs were 117,438 in Australia, 50,977 in the Philippines, and 16,379 in Singapore. Overall, YLL or premature death accounted for more than 95% of DALYs in these countries.Conclusions: Strategies for prevention, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment must be devised for diseases where the major burden is due to mortality.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3605000).
文摘Background:China accounts for one-quarter of the world’s diabetes population,with significant subnational disparities.However,none of the available data have provided comprehensive estimates and projections at both regional and national levels in diabetes prevention and management.This study aimed to explore the temporal trends and geographical variations in the prevalence and non-fatal burden of diabetes by age and sex across China from 2005 to 2023,and to forecast diabetes prevalence through 2050.Methods:We conducted a population-based study based on the nationally representative surveys,and literature reviews.Using the DisMod-MR model and Chinese-specific disease disability weights,we estimated the non-fatal burdens of diabetes,including prevalence and years lived with disability(YLDs),across sexes,age groups,and locations.The temporal trend change was measured as the average annual percent change.The effect of the human development index on burdens was assessed by applying Spearman’s rank correlation analysis.We further projected diabetes prevalence to 2050 under 2 scenarios,the natural trend and the effective intervention on body mass index(BMI).Results:In 2023,an estimated 233 million individuals in China were living with diabetes.Compared to 2005,the agestandardized rate(ASR)of prevalence has increased by nearly 50%,from 7.53%(95%CI 7.00-8.10)to 13.7%(95%CI 12.6-14.8)in 2023.The ASR of YLDs was estimated at 19.1 per 1000 population(95%CI 18.6-19.5)in 2023,compared to 10.5 per 1000 population in 2005.The ASR of prevalence and YLDs was consistently higher in males than in females.The provinces with the highest diabetes prevalence and disease burden were Beijing,Tianjin,and Shanghai.Our forecast results suggest that if existing trends continue,the prevalence of obesity will reach 29.1%(95%CI 22.2-38.2)nationally by 2050,with some provinces in the northern region observing a prevalence of over 40%.Conversely,if effective obesity interventions were implemented,the growth in diabetes prevalence could potentially be suppressed by nearly 50%.Conclusions:The health burden and economic cost associated with diabetes are profound.There is an urgent need to scale up preventive efforts and improve population awareness to enhance disease management and achieve optimal treatment outcomes.
文摘目的基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)研究,对比日本、印度、美国、英国和全球,分析中国屈光不正疾病负担现状及变化趋势。方法从全球健康交流数据库获取1990—2019年屈光不正的患病率、伤残损伤寿命年(years lived with disability,YLD)率等指标,利用Joinpoint等软件分析屈光不正的疾病负担及变化趋势。结果2019年中国屈光不正人数超过2700万,患病率和YLD率分别为19.18‰和89.40/10万。1990—2019年,全球范围内屈光不正患病率和YLD率均呈增长趋势(印度除外),中国增幅最大(分别上升53.21%、53.96%)。中国、日本、美国和英国年龄标化YLD率均低于全球平均水平,但中国的年龄标化YLD率高于发达国家(日本、美国和英国)。结论1990—2019年,中国屈光不正的控制与发达国家有一定差距,仍需以全球角度了解疾病现状,以期更好的防控屈光不正。
文摘Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billion on a global scale in 2008. This paper aims to understand the economic burden of lung cancer in terms of disability adjusted life years(DALY) in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore.Methods: The years of life lost(YLL) and years lost due to disability(YLD) were calculated using the formula developed by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability for diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. The same formula is represented in the Global Burden of Disease template provided by the World Health Organization. Appropriate assumptions were made when data were unavailable and projections were performed using regression analysis to obtain data for 2015.Results: The total DALYs due to lung cancer in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore were 91,695, 38,584, and 12,435,respectively, and the corresponding DALY rates per a population of 1,000 were 4.0, 0.4, and 2.2, respectively, with a discount rate of 3%. When researchers calculated DALYs without the discount rate, the burden of disease increased substantially; the DALYs were 117,438 in Australia, 50,977 in the Philippines, and 16,379 in Singapore. Overall, YLL or premature death accounted for more than 95% of DALYs in these countries.Conclusions: Strategies for prevention, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment must be devised for diseases where the major burden is due to mortality.
