Casing damage resulting from sand production in unconsolidated sandstone reservoirs can significantly impact the average production of oil wells.However,the prediction task remains challenging due to the complex damag...Casing damage resulting from sand production in unconsolidated sandstone reservoirs can significantly impact the average production of oil wells.However,the prediction task remains challenging due to the complex damage mechanism caused by sand production.This paper presents an innovative approach that combines feature selection(FS)with boosting algorithms to accurately predict casing damage in unconsolidated sandstone reservoirs.A novel TriScore FS technique is developed,combining mRMR,Random Forest,and F-test.The approach integrates three distinct feature selection approaches—TriScore,wrapper,and hybrid TriScore-wrapper and four interpretable Boosting models(AdaBoost,XGBoost,LightGBM,CatBoost).Moreover,shapley additive explanations(SHAP)was used to identify the most significant features across engineering,geological,and production features.The CatBoost model,using the Hybrid TriScore-rapper G_(1)G_(2)FS method,showed exceptional performance in analyzing data from the Gangxi Oilfield.It achieved the highestaccuracy(95.5%)and recall rate(89.7%)compared to other tested models.Casing service time,casing wall thickness,and perforation density were selected as the top three most important features.This framework enhances predictive robustness and is an effective tool for policymakers and energy analysts,confirming its capability to deliver reliable casing damage forecasts.展开更多
文摘针对历史负荷特征提取困难所导致的短期电力负荷预测精度不高的问题,提出了基于堆叠泛化集成思想的逻辑斯谛灰狼优化-极限梯度提升-轻量级梯度提升机-门控循环单元(logistic grey wolf optimizer-extreme gradient boosting-light gradient boosting machine-gated recurrent unit, LGWO-XGBoost-LightGBM-GRU)的短期电力负荷预测算法。该算法首先使用逻辑斯谛映射对灰狼优化(grey wolf optimizer, GWO)算法进行改进得到LGWO算法,接着使用LGWO算法分别对XGBoost、LightGBM、GRU算法进行参数寻优,然后使用XGBoost、LightGBM算法对数据的不同特征进行初步提炼,最后将提炼的特征合并到历史负荷数据集中作为输入,并使用GRU进行最终的负荷预测,得到预测结果。以某工业园区的负荷预测为例进行验证,结果表明,该算法与最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machines, LS-SVM)算法相比,均方根误差降低了68.85%,平均绝对误差降低了69.57%,平均绝对百分比误差降低了69.97%,决定系数提高了8.42%。该算法提高了短期电力负荷预测的精度。
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Project(Grant No.52274015)the National Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2025ZD1402205)。
文摘Casing damage resulting from sand production in unconsolidated sandstone reservoirs can significantly impact the average production of oil wells.However,the prediction task remains challenging due to the complex damage mechanism caused by sand production.This paper presents an innovative approach that combines feature selection(FS)with boosting algorithms to accurately predict casing damage in unconsolidated sandstone reservoirs.A novel TriScore FS technique is developed,combining mRMR,Random Forest,and F-test.The approach integrates three distinct feature selection approaches—TriScore,wrapper,and hybrid TriScore-wrapper and four interpretable Boosting models(AdaBoost,XGBoost,LightGBM,CatBoost).Moreover,shapley additive explanations(SHAP)was used to identify the most significant features across engineering,geological,and production features.The CatBoost model,using the Hybrid TriScore-rapper G_(1)G_(2)FS method,showed exceptional performance in analyzing data from the Gangxi Oilfield.It achieved the highestaccuracy(95.5%)and recall rate(89.7%)compared to other tested models.Casing service time,casing wall thickness,and perforation density were selected as the top three most important features.This framework enhances predictive robustness and is an effective tool for policymakers and energy analysts,confirming its capability to deliver reliable casing damage forecasts.
