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西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析 被引量:9
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作者 齐文 郑绵平 《湖泊科学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2006年第1期21-28,共8页
由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化.藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录.中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观... 由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化.藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录.中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观测,积累了连续13年珍贵的数据.如何根据湖泊水位历史记录数据,准确的定量预测水位中短期变化,是关系着盐湖资源开发命运的大事.本文用Winters线性和季节性指数平滑法、ARIMA乘积季节模型两种时间序列分析方法,根据西藏扎布耶盐湖1991年1月-2003年12月水位变化的时间序列数据,探讨了两种时间序列数据的预测方法在盐湖水位动态变化预测中的应用. 展开更多
关键词 扎布耶盐湖 水位预测 winters模型 ARIMA乘积季节模型
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Holt-Winters方法与ARIMA模型在中国航空旅客运输量预测中的比较研究 被引量:17
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作者 张丽 闫世锋 《上海工程技术大学学报》 CAS 2006年第3期280-283,共4页
我国航空运输市场近几年保持持续高速增长态势,国内的航空公司、机场及相关企业有着很大的发展空间。对航空旅客运输量作出准确的预测是相关企业和部门准确把握行业发展趋势,制定正确竞争和投资战略的基础和前提。根据航空旅客运输量趋... 我国航空运输市场近几年保持持续高速增长态势,国内的航空公司、机场及相关企业有着很大的发展空间。对航空旅客运输量作出准确的预测是相关企业和部门准确把握行业发展趋势,制定正确竞争和投资战略的基础和前提。根据航空旅客运输量趋势性和季节性较强的数据特点,分别使用季节ARIMA模型和加法模型下Holt Winters方法,对中国航空旅客运输量作出了预测,并将预测结果加以比较。 展开更多
关键词 中国航空旅客运输量 Holt winters方法 ARIMA模型
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航线需求预测的一种改进Winters方法 被引量:7
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作者 何冬昀 罗利 《交通运输系统工程与信息》 EI CSCD 2006年第6期103-107,共5页
提高航线需求预测精度是航空客运收益管理系统的重要研究课题.提出一种首先运用EM算法对航线历史订座数据中由于受资源限制而没有被满足的需求进行修复,取得更为准确的需求数据,然后,针对航班销售具有提前预订的特点,将航线历史订座数... 提高航线需求预测精度是航空客运收益管理系统的重要研究课题.提出一种首先运用EM算法对航线历史订座数据中由于受资源限制而没有被满足的需求进行修复,取得更为准确的需求数据,然后,针对航班销售具有提前预订的特点,将航线历史订座数据整合成一个提前日矩阵,使预测时能够利用更多的已知信息并减少了计算数据量,最后再运用Winters模型进行预测的航线需求预测方法.以成都到广州航线历史数据为例仿真计算,预测结果的平均误差为4.9%,而直接采用winters法进行预测的平均误差为21.7%,验证了算法的可行性和有效性. 展开更多
关键词 航线需求预测 winters模型 EM算法 提前日矩阵
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综合Winters模型和ARMA模型预测GDP 被引量:3
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作者 陈美 王红芹 程铁信 《天津工业大学学报》 CAS 2007年第5期83-85,88,共4页
以广东省GDP的时间序列数据为依据,分别应用Winters模型和ARMA模型以及加权综合这两个模型的方法对其进行季度性GDP值的短期预测,通过比较由不同方法得出的预测结果的绝对百分误差的大小,选择出绝对百分误差最小的方法·
关键词 GDP 时间序列 winters模型 ARMA模型
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应用holt-winters加法模型预测出院人次 被引量:10
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作者 陈媛 《中国卫生统计》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第2期260-261,共2页
目的分析holt-winters加法模型预测出院人次的效果。方法使用Eviews6.0软件,采用holt-winters加法模型预测,并与单参数指数平滑方法的计算结果进行比较。结果加法模型拟合效果很好,加法模型的均方误差较单参数平滑方法小。结论 holt-win... 目的分析holt-winters加法模型预测出院人次的效果。方法使用Eviews6.0软件,采用holt-winters加法模型预测,并与单参数指数平滑方法的计算结果进行比较。结果加法模型拟合效果很好,加法模型的均方误差较单参数平滑方法小。结论 holt-winters加法模型适用于预测出院人次序列。 展开更多
关键词 holt winters模型 预测 单参数指数平滑方法
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基于Holt-Winters与最小二乘支持向量机的混合预测模型 被引量:2
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作者 刘宝成 张仲荣 +1 位作者 盛秀梅 程丽娟 《洛阳理工学院学报(自然科学版)》 2017年第4期79-84,共6页
为了提高地下水埋深时间序列的预测精度,本文应用Holt-Winters三参数指数平滑法作为预测模型,使用最小二乘支持向量机对残差序列进行预测。由于核参数和惩罚因子在很大程度上直接影响了最小二乘支持向量机的预测性能,本文选用果蝇优化... 为了提高地下水埋深时间序列的预测精度,本文应用Holt-Winters三参数指数平滑法作为预测模型,使用最小二乘支持向量机对残差序列进行预测。由于核参数和惩罚因子在很大程度上直接影响了最小二乘支持向量机的预测性能,本文选用果蝇优化算法对其参数进行优化选取,该方法不仅能够建立最优的混合预测模型,而且能够很好地捕获地下水埋深序列的非线性特征。选用甘肃民勤县大坝乡城西八社地下水监测站点的数据来验证所建模型的预测性能,实验结果表明与传统的单一预测方法相比,本文所建混合预测模型提高了预测精度。 展开更多
关键词 Holt—winters三参数指数平滑 最小二乘支持向量机 果蝇优化算法 混合预测模型
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基于小波变换和季节性Holt-Winters模型的短期负荷预测方法 被引量:8
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作者 杨首晖 陈传彬 +3 位作者 王雪晶 李庆伟 吴元林 陈静 《电力需求侧管理》 2021年第5期70-75,共6页
精准的负荷预测对售电公司在电力市场中的运行起着十分重要的作用,而企业用户的负荷受多种因素的影响具有不平稳的特性,对此,提出了基于离散小波分解和粒子群优化的季节性Holt⁃Winters模型的短期负荷预测方法。针对原始负荷序列周期性... 精准的负荷预测对售电公司在电力市场中的运行起着十分重要的作用,而企业用户的负荷受多种因素的影响具有不平稳的特性,对此,提出了基于离散小波分解和粒子群优化的季节性Holt⁃Winters模型的短期负荷预测方法。针对原始负荷序列周期性不平稳的特性,利用离散小波变换对原始负荷序列进行分解,并采用季节性Holt⁃Winters模型进行预测,同时借助小波去噪和粒子群算法进一步提高预测模型的准确性。小波去噪在过滤原始数据中潜在的噪声的同时,对数据进行平滑处理,而粒子群算法能让Holt⁃Winters模型在训练过程找到最优参数。采用该模型来预测具有不同变化趋势的日负荷曲线,结果表明所提出的模型具有较高的预测精度,可适用于不同用电类型的用户负荷短期预测。 展开更多
关键词 短期负荷预测 小波变换 Holt⁃winters模型 粒子群算法 时间序列
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Winters模型在保费收入预测中的应用——以大连市寿险原保险保费收入预测为例 被引量:1
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作者 张萍 《保险职业学院学报》 2014年第2期11-14,共4页
以大连市寿险原保险保费收入的时间序列数据为依据,分别应用Winters加法模型和Winters乘法模型的方法对其进行月度保费收入值的预测,通过比较由不同方法得出的预测结果的绝对百分误差的大小,选择出绝对百分误差最小的方法。
关键词 保费收入 时间序列 预测 winters模型
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Holt-Winters模型在卷烟预测中的应用
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作者 李明明 何利力 《电脑编程技巧与维护》 2013年第4期23-24,共2页
提出基于Holt-Winters卷烟预测模型,对该预测模型设计了相应的算法,并以实际数据为例验证了Holt-Winters模型预测方法的有效性和实用性。
关键词 Holt—winters预测模型 时间序列 预测
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基于Winters乘法模型的中国邮政包件数预测分析
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作者 焦国柱 吕善绪 +1 位作者 郭姗姗 薛洁 《物流工程与管理》 2019年第12期31-33,共3页
中国邮政包件数是中国邮政业务量的主要指标之一,能够反映出中国邮政业务在市场中的地位。近年来,受到顺丰、中通、圆通、申通、韵达等公司的影响,中国邮政的包件数月度数据呈现趋势性下降并伴随季节性波动时间序列。为此,文中采用SPSS... 中国邮政包件数是中国邮政业务量的主要指标之一,能够反映出中国邮政业务在市场中的地位。近年来,受到顺丰、中通、圆通、申通、韵达等公司的影响,中国邮政的包件数月度数据呈现趋势性下降并伴随季节性波动时间序列。为此,文中采用SPSS统计分析软件,以2012年1月至2018年12月邮政业务量包件数为原始数据,建立winters乘法模型,对2019年每月中国快递业务量的包件数进行预测,并与2019年1月至6月包件数实际数据进行比较,得出的结果显示预测精度较高,可以为相关部门决策提供依据。 展开更多
关键词 winters模型 邮政业务量 预测
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Interannual evolution of the chemical composition,sources and processes of PM_(2.5)in Chengdu,China:Insights from observations in four winters 被引量:4
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作者 Junke Zhang Jiaqi Li +6 位作者 Yunfei Su Chunying Chen Luyao Chen Xiaojuan Huang Fangzheng Wang Yawen Huang Gehui Wang 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第4期32-45,共14页
The air quality in China has improved significantly in the last decade and,correspondingly,the characteristics of PM_(2.5)have also changed.We studied the interannual variation of PM_(2.5)in Chengdu,one of the most he... The air quality in China has improved significantly in the last decade and,correspondingly,the characteristics of PM_(2.5)have also changed.We studied the interannual variation of PM_(2.5)in Chengdu,one of the most heavily polluted megacities in southwest China,during the most polluted season(winter).Our results show that the mass concentrations of PM_(2.5)decreased significantly year-by-year,from 195.8±91.0μg/m~3in winter 2016 to 96.1±39.3μg/m^(3)in winter 2020.The mass concentrations of organic matter(OM),SO_()4^(2-),NH_(4)^(+)and NO_(3)^(-)decreased by 49.6%,57.1%,49.7% and 28.7%,respectively.The differential reduction in the concentrations of chemical components increased the contributions from secondary organic carbon and NO_(3)^(-)and there was a larger contribution from mobile sources.The contribution of OM and NO_(3)^(-)not only increased with increasing levels of pollution,but also increased year-by-year at the same level of pollution.Four sources of PM_(2.5)were identified:combustion sources,vehicular emissions,dust and secondary aerosols.Secondary aerosols made the highest contribution and increased year-by-year,from 40.6%in winter 2016 to 46.3% in winter 2020.By contrast,the contribution from combustion sources decreased from 14.4% to 8.7%.Our results show the effectiveness of earlier pollution reduction policies and emphasizes that priority should be given to key pollutants(e.g.,OM and NO_(3)^(-))and sources(secondary aerosols and vehicular emissions)in future policies for the reduction of pollution in Chengdu during the winter months. 展开更多
关键词 PM_(2.5) Chemical composition SOURCES Interannual evolution WINTER Chengdu
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Mechanism and effects of the increase in winter temperatures in the Arctic region on cold winters in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China for the period 1961-2018
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作者 WANG Xiaodi LI Yongsheng +4 位作者 ZHANG Lijuan SONG Shuaifeng PAN Tao REN Chong TAN Yulong 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第2期225-240,共16页
With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily increasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corresponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winte... With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily increasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corresponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winters.This paper,based on Climatic Research Unit(CRU)re-analysis data,and methods of trend analysis,mutation analysis,correlation analysis,reports on the effects of Arctic warming on winter temperatures in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China.The results show that:(1)during the period 1961-2018,winter temperatures in the Arctic increased considerably,that is,3.5 times those of the Equator,which has led to an increasing temperature gradient between the Arctic and the Equator.An abrupt change in winter temperatures in the Arctic was observed in 2000.(2)Due to the global warming,an extremely significant warming occurred in Heilongjiang in winter,in particular,after the Arctic mutation in 2000,although there were two warm winters,more cold winters were observed and the interannual variability of winter temperature also increased.(3)Affected by the warming trend in the Arctic,the Siberian High has intensified,and both the Arctic Vortex and the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index has weakened.This explains the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang,and why cold winters still dominate.Moreover,the increase in temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is another reason for the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang. 展开更多
关键词 temperature of Arctic region in winter cold winter effect MECHANISM Heilongjiang Province
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COOL COMMITMENT TO 2022 China is gearing up to host an unforgettable Beijing 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Games to ignite wintersports enthusiasm around the world
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《China Report ASEAN》 2021年第1期10-11,共2页
The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games are only a year away.Three years ago,at the closing ceremony of the 23rd Winter Olympics in PyeongChang,South Korea,Chinese President Xi Jinping extended a warm invitation to peop... The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games are only a year away.Three years ago,at the closing ceremony of the 23rd Winter Olympics in PyeongChang,South Korea,Chinese President Xi Jinping extended a warm invitation to people from all over the world:“See you in Beijing in 2022!”He pledged that Beijing would strive to deliver on its commitment to present an exciting,extraordinary,and outstanding Winter Olympic Games. 展开更多
关键词 FORGET WINTER WINTER
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Warmer winters affect rat populations
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作者 李红丹 《疯狂英语(新策略)》 2025年第8期33-36,78,79,共6页
Human activities have unintentionally helped rats grow rapidly worldwide.Beyond food waste and heated buildings,expanding cities and poorly maintained underground systems create endless shelters for rats.Now,climate c... Human activities have unintentionally helped rats grow rapidly worldwide.Beyond food waste and heated buildings,expanding cities and poorly maintained underground systems create endless shelters for rats.Now,climate change adds another challenge.A recent study in Science Advances reveals that warmer winters are boosting rat populations in cities.Researchers analyzed 16 cities across North America and Europe,finding that regions with faster temperature rises reported more frequent rat sightings.For example,Washington,D.C.saw a 25%increase in rat activity per 1℃ winter warming. 展开更多
关键词 human activities rat populations heated buildingsexpanding heated buildings warmer winters maintained underground systems food waste
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Effects of applying manure on soil physical properties and crop yield under long-term saline water irrigation
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作者 Khadija SHAHID LIU Zimeng +3 位作者 SHAO Liwei NIU Junfang CHEN Suying ZHANG Xiying 《中国生态农业学报(中英文)》 北大核心 2026年第1期103-117,共15页
To maintain soil quality under long-term saline water irrigation,the influence of manure on soil physical properties was examined.Long-term saline irrigation has been conducted from 2015 to 2024 at the Nanpi Eco-Agric... To maintain soil quality under long-term saline water irrigation,the influence of manure on soil physical properties was examined.Long-term saline irrigation has been conducted from 2015 to 2024 at the Nanpi Eco-Agricultural Experimental Station of Chinese Academy Sciences in the Low Plain of the North China Plain,comprising four irrigation treatments:irrigation once at the jointing stage for winter wheat with irrigation water containing salt at fresh water,3,4 and 5 g·L^(–1),and maize irrigation at sowing using fresh water.Manure application was conducted under all irrigation treatments,with treatments without manure application used as controls.The results showed that under long-term irrigation with saline water,the application of manure increased the soil organic matter content,exchangeable potassium,available phosphorus,and total nitrogen content in the 0–20 cm soil layer by 46.8%,117.0%,75.7%,and 45.5%,respectively,compared to treatments without manure application.The application of manure reduced soil bulk density.It also increased the proportion of water-stable aggregates and the abundance of bacteria,fungi,and actinomycetes in the tillage soil layer compared to the controls.Because of the salt contained in the manure,the application of manure had dual effects on soil salt content.During the winter wheat season,manure application increased soil salt content.The salt content was significantly reduced during the summer maize season,owing to the strong salt-leaching effects under manure application,resulting in a smaller difference in salt content between the manure and non-manure treatments.During the summer rainfall season,improvements in soil structure under manure application increased the soil desalination rate for the 1 m top soil layer.The desalination rate for 0–40 cm and 40–100 cm was averagely by 39.1%and 18.9%higher,respectively,under manure application as compared with that under the nomanure treatments.The yield of winter wheat under manure application was 0.12%lower than that of the control,owing to the higher salt content during the winter wheat season.In contrast,the yield of summer maize improved by 3.9%under manure application,owing to the increased soil nutrient content and effective salt leaching.The results of this study indicated that manure application helped maintain the soil physical structure,which is important for the long-term use of saline water.In practice,using manure with a low salt content is suggested to reduce the adverse effects of saline water irrigation on soil properties and achieve sustainable saline water use. 展开更多
关键词 saline water irrigation soil physical properties winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system soil salinity MANURE
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The Ice Industry Is Red Hot
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作者 GAO MENG LI CHUNYU YANG FAN 《China Today》 2026年第2期26-29,共4页
China’s winter sports boom creates jobs and spurs economic growth,bringing substantial benefit to the general public,local governments,and businesses.CHINA’s ice and snow economy,riding on the winter sports boom,is ... China’s winter sports boom creates jobs and spurs economic growth,bringing substantial benefit to the general public,local governments,and businesses.CHINA’s ice and snow economy,riding on the winter sports boom,is stimulating consumption across the country,fueling regional development and creating new industrial ecosystems.This trend perfectly matches one of China’s key tasks for 2026. 展开更多
关键词 economic growth winter sports ice snow economyriding winter sports boom regional development job creation economic growthbringing ice snow economy
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Chinese Athletes Write New Chapter in Winter Olympics Story
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作者 《Women of China》 2026年第3期34-39,共6页
The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics,in Italy,concluded on February 22,after 17 days of competitions that witnessed broad participation and historic breakthroughs.China-which fielded 126 athletes in 91 events across 15 d... The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics,in Italy,concluded on February 22,after 17 days of competitions that witnessed broad participation and historic breakthroughs.China-which fielded 126 athletes in 91 events across 15 disciplines--sent its largest-ever delegation to an overseas Winter Olympics. 展开更多
关键词 Winter Olympics participation historic breakthroughs FEBRUARY Milan Cortina largest delegation Italy Chinese athletes
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PHOTO NEWS
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《China Today》 2026年第3期6-15,共10页
China Posts Best-Ever Overseas Result at Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics concluded on February 22,after 17 days of competition that saw broad participation,historic breakthroughs,and Ch... China Posts Best-Ever Overseas Result at Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics concluded on February 22,after 17 days of competition that saw broad participation,historic breakthroughs,and China’s bestever performance at an overseas Winter Games. 展开更多
关键词 Winter Olympics overseas performance China Milan Cortina historical breakthrough
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China’s Snow Boom:From Olympic Dream to Economic Engine
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作者 ZACHARY G.LUNDQUIST 《China Today》 2026年第2期36-39,共4页
How is a nation’s embrace of snow and ice shaping a new cultural identity and igniting a multi-trillion-yuan economic boom?ADRIAAN Smit now cannot imagine a life without snowboarding,a passion that has become central... How is a nation’s embrace of snow and ice shaping a new cultural identity and igniting a multi-trillion-yuan economic boom?ADRIAAN Smit now cannot imagine a life without snowboarding,a passion that has become central to his world.He is excited to witness how winter sports are fostering a new winter culture in China.Listening to Smit speaking so enthusiastically about the slopes,one might assume he was raised in a region where snow sports are a way of life,but the fact is quite the contrary. 展开更多
关键词 winter sports SNOWBOARDING China Olympic dream snow sports economic boom cultural identity
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The Sunny Side of Winter
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作者 ZHOU LIN 《ChinAfrica》 2026年第3期49-51,共3页
Yiwu merchants ride a winter sports boom as“Made in China”gear heats up the global economy Yiwu,located in east China’s Zhejiang Province,is globally renowned as a hub for small commodities.This winter,its snow and... Yiwu merchants ride a winter sports boom as“Made in China”gear heats up the global economy Yiwu,located in east China’s Zhejiang Province,is globally renowned as a hub for small commodities.This winter,its snow and ice sports products are generating a surge in business. 展开更多
关键词 global economy winter sports Made China Yiwu commodities snow ice sports products
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