Intense wind shear(I-WS)near airport runways presents a critical challenge to aviation safety,necessi-tating accurate and timely classification to mitigate risks during takeoff and landing.This study proposes the appl...Intense wind shear(I-WS)near airport runways presents a critical challenge to aviation safety,necessi-tating accurate and timely classification to mitigate risks during takeoff and landing.This study proposes the application of advanced Residual Network(ResNet)architectures including ResNet34 and ResNet50 for classifying I-WS and Non-Intense Wind Shear(NI-WS)events using Doppler Light Detection and Ranging(LiDAR)data from Hong Kong International Airport(HKIA).Unlike conventional models such as feedforward neural networks(FNNs),convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and recurrent neural networks(RNNs),ResNet provides a distinct advantage in addressing key challenges such as capturing intricate WS dynamics,mitigating vanishing gradient issues in deep architectures,and effectively handling class imbalance when combined with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique(SMOTE).The analysis results revealed that ResNet34 outperforms other models with a Balanced Accuracy of 0.7106,Probability of Detection of 0.8271,False Alarm Rate of 0.328,F1-score of 0.7413,Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.433,and Geometric Mean of 0.701,demonstrating its effectiveness in classifying I-WS events.The findings of this study not only establish ResNet as a valuable tool in the domain of WS classification but also provide a reliable framework for enhancing operational safety at airports.展开更多
This study investigates the characteristics of secondary eyewall formation(SEF)in idealized tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear(VWS)at different heights.The results show that upper-layer VWS at a relativ...This study investigates the characteristics of secondary eyewall formation(SEF)in idealized tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear(VWS)at different heights.The results show that upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height is more favorable for SEF than upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lowerlayer VWS.In the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height,better-organized stratiform clouds are located in the downwind sector of outer rainbands.The low-level descending inflow associated with the stratiform sector is stronger in these experiments than in the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lower-layer VWS.The enhanced descending inflow can trigger supergradient winds and convergence near the top of the boundary layer,close to three times the radius of the maximum wind,where convection is locally forced.The subsequent convection axisymmetrization leads to SEF.展开更多
A joint statistical model of wind speed and wind shear is critical for height-dependent wind resource characteristic analysis.However,given the different atmospheric conditions that may be involved,the statistical dis...A joint statistical model of wind speed and wind shear is critical for height-dependent wind resource characteristic analysis.However,given the different atmospheric conditions that may be involved,the statistical distribution of the two variables may show multimodal characteristics.In this work,a finite mixture bivariate statistical model was designed to describe the statistical properties,which is composed of several components,each with a Weibull distribution and a normal distribution for wind speed and wind shear,respectively,with a Gaussian copula to describe the dependency structure between the two variables.To confirm the developed model,reanalysis data from six positions in the coastal sea areas of China were used.Our results disclosed that the developed joint statistical model can accurately capture the different multimodal structures presented in all the bivariate samples under mixed atmospheric conditions,giving acceptable predictions of the joint probability distributions.Proper consideration of wind shear coefficient variation is crucial in estimating height-dependent wind resource characteristics.Importantly,unlike traditional methods that are limited to specific hub heights,the model developed here can estimate wind energy potential across different hub heights,enhancing the economic viability assessment of wind power projects.展开更多
The effects of environmental vertical wind shear （VWS） on the intensity and rainfall asymmetries in Tropical Storm （TS） Bilis （2006） have been analyzed based on TRMM/TMI-estimated surface rainfall data, QuikSCAT...The effects of environmental vertical wind shear （VWS） on the intensity and rainfall asymmetries in Tropical Storm （TS） Bilis （2006） have been analyzed based on TRMM/TMI-estimated surface rainfall data, QuikSCAT wind fields, 850- and 200-hPa winds of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, precipitation data at 5-min intervals from automatic weather stations over China's Mainland, and the best track data of TS Bilis （2006）. The results show that the simultaneous and 6-hour-lagged correlation coefficients between VWS and storm intensity （the minimum central sea level pressure） are 0.59145 and 0.57438 （P 〈0.01）, respectively. The averaged VWS was found to be about 11 m s-1 and thus suppressed the intensification of Bilis （2006）. Distribution of precipitation in Bilis （2006） was highly asymmetric. The azimuthally-averaged rainfall rate in the partial eyewall, however, was smaller than that in a major outer rainband. As the storm intensified, the major rainband showed an unusual outward propagation. The VWS had a great impact on the asymmetric distribution of precipitation. Consistent with previous modeling studies, heavy rainfall generally occurred downshear to downshear-left of the VWS vector both near and outside the eyewall, showing a strong wavenumber-one asymmetry, which was amplified as the VWS increased.展开更多
The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm,...The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm, the power-law process was used to simulate the wind speeds at a hub height of 60 m. The Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were chosen to express the wind speeds at two different heights. The parameters in the model were estimated via the least square(LS) method and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method, respectively. An adjusted MLE approach was also presented for parameter estimation. The main indices of wind energy characteristics were calculated based on observational wind speed data. A case study based on the data of Hexi area, Gansu Province of China was given. The results show that MLE method generally outperforms LS method for parameter estimation, and Weibull distribution is more appropriate to describe the wind speed at the hub height.展开更多
In this study,the effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the intensification of tropical cyclone(TC)is investigated via the numerical simulations.Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of T...In this study,the effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the intensification of tropical cyclone(TC)is investigated via the numerical simulations.Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of TC while strong shear appears to inhibit the intensification of TC.As the VWS is imposed on the TC,the vortex of the cyclone tends to tilt vertically and significantly in the upper troposphere.Consequently,the upward motion is considerably enhanced in the downshear side of the storm center and correspondingly,the low-to mid-level potential temperature decreases under the effect of adiabatic cooling,which leads to the increase of the low-to mid-level static instability and relative humidity and then facilitates the burst of convection.In the case of weak shear,the vertical tilting of the vortex is weak and the increase of ascent,static instability and relative humidity occur in the area close to the TC center.Therefore,active convection happens in the TC center region and facilitates the enhancement of vorticity in the inner core region and then the intensification of TC.In contrast,due to strong VWS,the increase of the ascent,static instability and relative humidity induced by the vertical tilting mainly appear in the outer region of TC in the case with stronger shear,and the convection in the inner-core area of TC is rather weak and convective activity mainly happens in the outer-region of the TC.Therefore,the development of a warm core is inhibited and then the intensification of TC is delayed.Different from previous numerical results obtained by imposing VWS suddenly to a strong TC,the simulation performed in this work shows that,even when the VWS is as strong as 12 m s-1,the tropical storm can still experience rapid intensification and finally develop into a strong tropical cyclone after a relatively long period of adjustment.It is found that the convection plays an important role in the adjusting period.On one hand,the convection leads to the horizontal convergence of the low-level vorticity flux and therefore leads to the enhancement of the low-level vorticity in the inner-core area of the cyclone.On the other hand,the active ascent accompanying the convection tends to transport the low-level vorticity to the middle levels.The enhanced vorticity in the lower to middle troposphere strengths the interaction between the low-and mid-level cyclonical circulation and the upper-level circulation deviated from the storm center under the effect of VWS.As a result,the vertical tilting of the vortex is considerably decreased,and then the cyclone starts to develop rapidly.展开更多
The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the...The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.展开更多
At present,the main detection instruments for observing sporadic E(Es)layers are ground-based radars,dense networks of ground-based global navigation satellite system(GNSS)receivers,and GNSS radio occultation,but they...At present,the main detection instruments for observing sporadic E(Es)layers are ground-based radars,dense networks of ground-based global navigation satellite system(GNSS)receivers,and GNSS radio occultation,but they cannot capture the whole picture of the horizontal structure of Es layers.This study employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension model(WACCM-X 2.1)to derive the horizontal structure of the ion convergence region(HSICR)to explore the shapes of the large-scale Es layers over East Asia for the period from June 1 to August 31,2008.The simulation produced the various shapes of the HSICRs elongated in the northwest-southeast,northeast-southwest,or composed of individual small patches.The close connection between Es layer critical frequency(foEs)and vertical ion convergence indicates that the HSICR is a good candidate for revealing and explaining the horizontal structure of the large-scale Es layers.展开更多
The effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)directions on the change in western North Pacific tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is revisited in this study.Results show that the differences in the correlations between VWS in dif...The effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)directions on the change in western North Pacific tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is revisited in this study.Results show that the differences in the correlations between VWS in different orientations and the change in TC nondimensional intensity highly diminish,although slight differences are still present.The subtle differences in the correlations are likely associated with different synoptic-scale patterns at upper and lower levels.This result suggests that,in addition to thermodynamic effects,dynamic roles of the synoptic-scale patterns associated with the VWS should also be taken into account when the authors examine how VWS in different directions affects TC intensity change.展开更多
The effects of vertical wind shear, radiation and ice microphysics on precipitation efficiency （PE） were investigated through analysis of modeling data of a torrential rainfall event over Jinan, China during July 20...The effects of vertical wind shear, radiation and ice microphysics on precipitation efficiency （PE） were investigated through analysis of modeling data of a torrential rainfall event over Jinan, China during July 2007. Vertical wind shear affected PE by changing the kinetic energy conversion between the mean and perturbation circulations. Clou^radiation interaction impacted upon PE, but the relationship related to cloud radiative effects on PE was not statistically significant. The reduction in deposition processes as- sociated with the removal of ice microphysics suppressed efficiency. The relationships related to effects of vertical wind shear, radiation and ice clouds on PEs defined in cloud and surface rainfall budgets were more statistically significant than that defined in the rain microphysical budget.展开更多
Gravity waves with periods close to the Brunt-V(a|¨)is(a|¨)l(a|¨) period of the upper troposphere are often observed at mesopause altitudes as short period,quasi-monochromatic waves.The assumption that ...Gravity waves with periods close to the Brunt-V(a|¨)is(a|¨)l(a|¨) period of the upper troposphere are often observed at mesopause altitudes as short period,quasi-monochromatic waves.The assumption that these short period waves originate in the troposphere may be problematic because their upward propagation to the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region could be significantly impeded due to an extended region of strong evanescence above the stratopause.To reconcile this apparent paradox,an alternative explanation is proposed in this paper.The inclusion of mean winds and their vertical shears is sufficient to allow certain short period waves to remain internal above the stratopause and to propagate efficiently to higher altitudes.A time-dependent numerical model is used to demonstrate the feasibility of this and to determine the circumstances under which the mesospheric wind shears play a role in the removal and directional filtering of short period gravity waves. Finally this paper concludes that the combination of the height-dependent mean winds and the mean temperature structure probably explains the existence of short period,quasi-monochromatic structures observed in airglow images of mesopause region.展开更多
Idealized numerical simulations have been carried out to reveal the complexity in the development of asymmetric convection in a tropical cyclone(TC)under the influence of an environment with either uniform flow,vertic...Idealized numerical simulations have been carried out to reveal the complexity in the development of asymmetric convection in a tropical cyclone(TC)under the influence of an environment with either uniform flow,vertical wind shear(VWS),or both.Results show that rainwater is enhanced to the right of the motion in the outer rainband,but such enhancement occurs in the upshear-left area of the inner-core region.Additionally,due to the asymmetries introduced by environmental flow,wavenumber-1 temperature and height anomalies develop at a radius of~1000 km in the upper levels.A sub-vortex aside from the TC center encompassing the wavenumber-1 warm center appears,and asymmetric horizontal winds emerge,which,in turn,changes the storm-scale(within 400 km)VWS.Deep convection in the inner core closely follows the changing storm-scale VWS when its magnitude is larger than 2 m s^(-1) and is located downshear of the storm-scale VWS in all the experiments with environmental flow.In the outer rainbands,the maximum boundary layer convergence is mainly controlled by the direction of motion and is located in the rear-right quadrant.These results extend upon the findings of previous studies in three aspects:(1)The discovery of the roughly linear combination effect from the uniform flow and large-scale VWS;(2)The development of upper-level asymmetric winds on a 1000-km scale through the interaction between the TC vortex and environmental flow,resulting in changes in the storm-scale VWS pattern within the TC area;(3)The revelation that TC asymmetric convection closely aligns with the direction-varying storm-scale VWS instead of the initially designated VWS.展开更多
Wind shear reflects that the wind field is not uniform, which is one of the primary factors which make the retrieval of the wind field difficult. Based on volume velocity process(VVP) wind field retrieval technique, t...Wind shear reflects that the wind field is not uniform, which is one of the primary factors which make the retrieval of the wind field difficult. Based on volume velocity process(VVP) wind field retrieval technique, the intensity of wind shear is identified in this paper. After analyzing the traditional techniques that rely on the difference of radial velocity to identify wind shear, a fixed difference among radial velocities that may cause false identification in a uniform wind field was found. Because of the non-uniformity in wind shear areas, the difference of retrieved results between surrounding analysis volumes can be used as a measurement to show how strong the wind shear is. According to the analysis of a severe convective weather process that occurred in Guangzhou, it can be found that the areas of wind shear appeared with the strength significantly larger than in other regions and the magnitude generally larger than4.5 m/(s·km). Besides, by comparing the variation of wind shear strength during the convection, it can be found that new cells will be more likely to generate when the strength is above 3.0 m/(s·km). Therefore, the analysis of strong wind shear's movement and development is helpful to forecasting severe convections.展开更多
This study investigates the effects of vertical wind shear on the torrential rainfall response to the large-scale forcing using a rainfall separation analysis of a pair of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensiti...This study investigates the effects of vertical wind shear on the torrential rainfall response to the large-scale forcing using a rainfall separation analysis of a pair of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments for a pre-summer heavy rainfall event over southern China from 3-8 June 2008 coupled with National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System(GDAS) data.The rainfall partitioning analysis based on the surface rainfall budget indicates that the exclusion of vertical wind shear decreases the contribution to total rainfall from the largest contributor,which is the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor divergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence,through the reduction of the rainfall area and reduced rainfall during the rainfall event.The removal of vertical wind shear increases the contribution to total rainfall from the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor convergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence through the expansion of the rainfall area and enhanced rainfall.The elimination of vertical wind shear enhances heavy rainfall and expands its area,whereas it reduces moderate rainfall and its area.展开更多
To overcome the problems of natural decreases in power quality,and to eliminate wind speed fluctuation due to wind shear and tower shadow effect arising from wind turbine structural parameters,an improved prediction m...To overcome the problems of natural decreases in power quality,and to eliminate wind speed fluctuation due to wind shear and tower shadow effect arising from wind turbine structural parameters,an improved prediction model accounting for the dual effect of wind shear and tower shadow is,in this paper,built.Compared to the conventional prediction model,the proposed model contains a new constraint condition,which makes the disturbance term caused by the tower shadow effect always negative so that the prediction result is closer to the actual situation.Furthermore,wind turbine structural parameters such as hub height,rotor diameter,the diameter of the tower top,and rotor overhang on wind shear and tower shadow effect are also explored in detail.The results show that the wind shear effect became weaker with the increase in hub height.The hub height is independent of the tower shadow effect.The rotor diameter is positively correlated with the wind shear and tower shadow effect.The tower shadow effect is positively correlated with the diameter of the tower top and negatively correlated with the rotor overhang.展开更多
The wind energy assessment studies are generally performed referring to neutral stability conditions for the atmosphere; this is considered a good hypothesis because neutral conditions characterize the high wind situa...The wind energy assessment studies are generally performed referring to neutral stability conditions for the atmosphere; this is considered a good hypothesis because neutral conditions characterize the high wind situations. However the increasing size of modem multi megawatt wind turbines allows to produce energy even in low wind regimes and non-neutral conditions can involve significant production period. In such situations the variations of the vertical wind shear can affect the energy production in a sensible way and it could be fundamental to investigate how atmospheric stability and orography can affect the wind profile and the power conversion. In this paper meso-scale numerical data, CFD modeling and remote sensed wind data were used in order to analyze such behavior and to understand how wind shear influences the energy content and the discussion about how to adjust the power curve to the site specific conditions.展开更多
This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shea...This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear(VWS),using idealized numerical experiments.Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions.In alignment configurations,shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes,thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region.Subsequently,more vigorous outer rainbands develop,inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation.The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core.Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.展开更多
Tropical cyclone precipitation is a major cause of severe natural hazards.This study analyzes the influence of tropical cyclone intensity,translation speed,and vertical wind shear on precipitation asymmetry using sate...Tropical cyclone precipitation is a major cause of severe natural hazards.This study analyzes the influence of tropical cyclone intensity,translation speed,and vertical wind shear on precipitation asymmetry using satellite precipitation data,ERA5 reanalysis dataset,and IBTrACS best track data from 2001 to 2020.Results reveal that tropical cyclone asymmetry gradually weakens with increasing storm intensity while it strengthens with higher translation speed and vertical wind shear.Quantitative analysis indicates a more critical role of vertical wind shear in modulating precipitation asymmetry compared to translation speed.These three factors affect storm precipitation individually,and also modulate each other.Specifically,storm intensity is suppressed under backward vertical wind shear.This suppression becomes more pronounced as the vertical wind shear enhances and the absolute angle between vertical wind shear direction and storm motion direction increases.Correspondingly,tropical cyclones exhibit stronger precipitation under forward vertical wind shear than backward.Unlike the intensity suppression mechanism,the rain rates under high vertical wind shear are consistently higher than those under low,with the exception of backward right vertical wind shear.Composite analyses demonstrate that the rainfall preference and the heaviest precipitation are typically located to downshear left.Nevertheless,when the shear is directed towards the rear left relative to the storm motion,the weakened cyclonic circulation under strong backward vertical wind shear reduces its capacity to transport precipitation to the downshear left.In this case,it appears that the forward preference of the rainfall generated by storm motion dominates the precipitation structure.The rainfall preference and the heaviest precipitation are both located to downshear right.展开更多
Using over 20,000 dropsonde observations,this study presents a composite analysis of atmospheric ducts(ADs)under tropical cyclone(TC)conditions,revealing their asymmetric distribution relative to TC structure.In addit...Using over 20,000 dropsonde observations,this study presents a composite analysis of atmospheric ducts(ADs)under tropical cyclone(TC)conditions,revealing their asymmetric distribution relative to TC structure.In addition to examining the influence of TC motion on the spatial distribution of ADs,this research also investigates the impact of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the asymmetry of AD characteristics.This study provides the first statistical characterization of AD properties within the eye region of TCs.The results reveal distinct structural features of elevated ducts(ELDs),with their strength,thickness,and occurrence probability progressively increasing with radial distance from the TC center.Within the radius of maximum wind(RMW),ELD strength,thickness,and occurrence probability are significantly lower than the overall average,indicating that the TC eye is generally unfavorable for ELD formation.Compared to TC motion,VWS induces more pronounced asymmetries,especially beyond the radius of the outermost closed isobar(ROCI).ELDs in the left-front(LF)quadrant relative to VWS are typically weaker,shallower,and less frequent,while those in the right-back(RB)quadrant are stronger,deeper,and more frequent.The contrast intensifies with stronger VWS,with the greatest asymmetry shifting from the LF to the RB quadrant when VWS exceeds 20 m s-1.Statistical analysis further reveals that TC intensity influences ELD properties.Outside ROCI,ELDs under tropical depressions exhibit significant differences compared to those associated with higher-intensity TCs.These findings enhance current understanding of AD behavior under TC conditions and may offer valuable guidance for designing and operating electromagnetic communication systems in severe weather environments.展开更多
To explore the formation mechanism of severe dense fog(SDF),we compare the similarities and differences in surface meteorological conditions and boundary layer structures among SDF,dense fog(DF)and heavy haze(HH)event...To explore the formation mechanism of severe dense fog(SDF),we compare the similarities and differences in surface meteorological conditions and boundary layer structures among SDF,dense fog(DF)and heavy haze(HH)events based on observations from tethered balloon soundings,microwave radiometers,wind profiler radars and conventional ground-based meteorological stations,as well as analysis fields from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.In addition,we investigate the roles and mechanisms of ultra low-level jets(ULLJs)and vertical wind shear in the formation of the SDF.The results indicate that during the formation and development stages of the SDF,the maximum surface cooling exceeds 4℃,whereas no obvious cooling was observed during DF and HH events.Additionally,during the formation and maintenance stages of the SDF,the boundary layer was characterized by strong temperature inversion,an“upper-level dry and lower-level wet”(UDLW)structure,the presence of an ULLJ,and pronounced vertical wind shear.Similar ULLJs(or strong wind speeds)and vertical wind shear also occurred during DF and HH events.The latter featured a deep and strong inversion,but without the UDLW structure.The above differences indicate the following formation mechanisms of the SDF.(1)On SDF days,northerly(non-northerly)winds prevailed above(below)the jet,forming an UDLW structure that favors surface radiative cooling and humidification.In contrast,on DF and HH days,southerly winds prevailed above the jet,which was not conducive to the formation of the UDLW structure and surface radiative cooling.(2)The SDF days featured vertical wind shear that resulted in a distinct“upper-level stable and lower-level turbulent”structure in the surface layer,whereas the boundary layer remained generally stable on HH days.Consequently,the key factor determining whether the HH evolves into the SDF is the vertical wind profile within the boundary layer,which governs the formation of the UDLW structure and further creates the cooling,moistening and turbulence conditions favorable for the formation and maintenance of SDF.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52250410351)the National Foreign Expert Project(Grant No.QN2022133001L)Xiaomi Young Talent Program and Taif University(TU-DSPP-2024-173).
文摘Intense wind shear(I-WS)near airport runways presents a critical challenge to aviation safety,necessi-tating accurate and timely classification to mitigate risks during takeoff and landing.This study proposes the application of advanced Residual Network(ResNet)architectures including ResNet34 and ResNet50 for classifying I-WS and Non-Intense Wind Shear(NI-WS)events using Doppler Light Detection and Ranging(LiDAR)data from Hong Kong International Airport(HKIA).Unlike conventional models such as feedforward neural networks(FNNs),convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and recurrent neural networks(RNNs),ResNet provides a distinct advantage in addressing key challenges such as capturing intricate WS dynamics,mitigating vanishing gradient issues in deep architectures,and effectively handling class imbalance when combined with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique(SMOTE).The analysis results revealed that ResNet34 outperforms other models with a Balanced Accuracy of 0.7106,Probability of Detection of 0.8271,False Alarm Rate of 0.328,F1-score of 0.7413,Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.433,and Geometric Mean of 0.701,demonstrating its effectiveness in classifying I-WS events.The findings of this study not only establish ResNet as a valuable tool in the domain of WS classification but also provide a reliable framework for enhancing operational safety at airports.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.U2342202 and 42175005]the Qing Lan Project[Grant No.R2023Q06]。
文摘This study investigates the characteristics of secondary eyewall formation(SEF)in idealized tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear(VWS)at different heights.The results show that upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height is more favorable for SEF than upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lowerlayer VWS.In the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively low shear height,better-organized stratiform clouds are located in the downwind sector of outer rainbands.The low-level descending inflow associated with the stratiform sector is stronger in these experiments than in the experiments with upper-layer VWS at a relatively high shear height and lower-layer VWS.The enhanced descending inflow can trigger supergradient winds and convergence near the top of the boundary layer,close to three times the radius of the maximum wind,where convection is locally forced.The subsequent convection axisymmetrization leads to SEF.
基金supported by the Key R&D Program of Shandong Province,China(No.2021ZLGX04)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘A joint statistical model of wind speed and wind shear is critical for height-dependent wind resource characteristic analysis.However,given the different atmospheric conditions that may be involved,the statistical distribution of the two variables may show multimodal characteristics.In this work,a finite mixture bivariate statistical model was designed to describe the statistical properties,which is composed of several components,each with a Weibull distribution and a normal distribution for wind speed and wind shear,respectively,with a Gaussian copula to describe the dependency structure between the two variables.To confirm the developed model,reanalysis data from six positions in the coastal sea areas of China were used.Our results disclosed that the developed joint statistical model can accurately capture the different multimodal structures presented in all the bivariate samples under mixed atmospheric conditions,giving acceptable predictions of the joint probability distributions.Proper consideration of wind shear coefficient variation is crucial in estimating height-dependent wind resource characteristics.Importantly,unlike traditional methods that are limited to specific hub heights,the model developed here can estimate wind energy potential across different hub heights,enhancing the economic viability assessment of wind power projects.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Grant Nos.40828005the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Grant Nos.40921160382+7 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Grant Nos.40775060the Key Project of the Ministry of Education of China,Grant No.02109the State Key Basic Research Program 2009CB421500the State Key Basic Research Program 2006BAC02B03the State Key Basic Research Program GYHY200706033supported by National Science Foundation of UAS Grants ATM-0427128National Science Foundation of UAS Grants ATM-0754039the ONR Grant 00014-06-10303
文摘The effects of environmental vertical wind shear （VWS） on the intensity and rainfall asymmetries in Tropical Storm （TS） Bilis （2006） have been analyzed based on TRMM/TMI-estimated surface rainfall data, QuikSCAT wind fields, 850- and 200-hPa winds of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, precipitation data at 5-min intervals from automatic weather stations over China's Mainland, and the best track data of TS Bilis （2006）. The results show that the simultaneous and 6-hour-lagged correlation coefficients between VWS and storm intensity （the minimum central sea level pressure） are 0.59145 and 0.57438 （P 〈0.01）, respectively. The averaged VWS was found to be about 11 m s-1 and thus suppressed the intensification of Bilis （2006）. Distribution of precipitation in Bilis （2006） was highly asymmetric. The azimuthally-averaged rainfall rate in the partial eyewall, however, was smaller than that in a major outer rainband. As the storm intensified, the major rainband showed an unusual outward propagation. The VWS had a great impact on the asymmetric distribution of precipitation. Consistent with previous modeling studies, heavy rainfall generally occurred downshear to downshear-left of the VWS vector both near and outside the eyewall, showing a strong wavenumber-one asymmetry, which was amplified as the VWS increased.
基金Project(51165019)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(1308RJYA018)supported by Gansu Provincial Natural Science Fund,ChinaProject(2013-4-110)supported by Lanzhou Technology Development Program,China
文摘The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm, the power-law process was used to simulate the wind speeds at a hub height of 60 m. The Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were chosen to express the wind speeds at two different heights. The parameters in the model were estimated via the least square(LS) method and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method, respectively. An adjusted MLE approach was also presented for parameter estimation. The main indices of wind energy characteristics were calculated based on observational wind speed data. A case study based on the data of Hexi area, Gansu Province of China was given. The results show that MLE method generally outperforms LS method for parameter estimation, and Weibull distribution is more appropriate to describe the wind speed at the hub height.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China(40921160382,40730948 and 40830958)State Key Basic Program of China(2009CB421502)
文摘In this study,the effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the intensification of tropical cyclone(TC)is investigated via the numerical simulations.Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of TC while strong shear appears to inhibit the intensification of TC.As the VWS is imposed on the TC,the vortex of the cyclone tends to tilt vertically and significantly in the upper troposphere.Consequently,the upward motion is considerably enhanced in the downshear side of the storm center and correspondingly,the low-to mid-level potential temperature decreases under the effect of adiabatic cooling,which leads to the increase of the low-to mid-level static instability and relative humidity and then facilitates the burst of convection.In the case of weak shear,the vertical tilting of the vortex is weak and the increase of ascent,static instability and relative humidity occur in the area close to the TC center.Therefore,active convection happens in the TC center region and facilitates the enhancement of vorticity in the inner core region and then the intensification of TC.In contrast,due to strong VWS,the increase of the ascent,static instability and relative humidity induced by the vertical tilting mainly appear in the outer region of TC in the case with stronger shear,and the convection in the inner-core area of TC is rather weak and convective activity mainly happens in the outer-region of the TC.Therefore,the development of a warm core is inhibited and then the intensification of TC is delayed.Different from previous numerical results obtained by imposing VWS suddenly to a strong TC,the simulation performed in this work shows that,even when the VWS is as strong as 12 m s-1,the tropical storm can still experience rapid intensification and finally develop into a strong tropical cyclone after a relatively long period of adjustment.It is found that the convection plays an important role in the adjusting period.On one hand,the convection leads to the horizontal convergence of the low-level vorticity flux and therefore leads to the enhancement of the low-level vorticity in the inner-core area of the cyclone.On the other hand,the active ascent accompanying the convection tends to transport the low-level vorticity to the middle levels.The enhanced vorticity in the lower to middle troposphere strengths the interaction between the low-and mid-level cyclonical circulation and the upper-level circulation deviated from the storm center under the effect of VWS.As a result,the vertical tilting of the vortex is considerably decreased,and then the cyclone starts to develop rapidly.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405060,41475082,41305049,41275067,41475059)
文摘The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDA17010207)scholarship received from the China Scholarship Council (CSC) under grant CSC No.202006410017supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for National University,China University of Geosciences (Wuhan)
文摘At present,the main detection instruments for observing sporadic E(Es)layers are ground-based radars,dense networks of ground-based global navigation satellite system(GNSS)receivers,and GNSS radio occultation,but they cannot capture the whole picture of the horizontal structure of Es layers.This study employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension model(WACCM-X 2.1)to derive the horizontal structure of the ion convergence region(HSICR)to explore the shapes of the large-scale Es layers over East Asia for the period from June 1 to August 31,2008.The simulation produced the various shapes of the HSICRs elongated in the northwest-southeast,northeast-southwest,or composed of individual small patches.The close connection between Es layer critical frequency(foEs)and vertical ion convergence indicates that the HSICR is a good candidate for revealing and explaining the horizontal structure of the large-scale Es layers.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant numbers 2018YFC1507103 and 2017YFC1501601]the Key Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China[grant number 2017YFE0107700]National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41875054,41730961,41730960,and 41775065].
文摘The effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)directions on the change in western North Pacific tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is revisited in this study.Results show that the differences in the correlations between VWS in different orientations and the change in TC nondimensional intensity highly diminish,although slight differences are still present.The subtle differences in the correlations are likely associated with different synoptic-scale patterns at upper and lower levels.This result suggests that,in addition to thermodynamic effects,dynamic roles of the synoptic-scale patterns associated with the VWS should also be taken into account when the authors examine how VWS in different directions affects TC intensity change.
基金supported by projects of the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41075044,41275065,and 41075079)
文摘The effects of vertical wind shear, radiation and ice microphysics on precipitation efficiency （PE） were investigated through analysis of modeling data of a torrential rainfall event over Jinan, China during July 2007. Vertical wind shear affected PE by changing the kinetic energy conversion between the mean and perturbation circulations. Clou^radiation interaction impacted upon PE, but the relationship related to cloud radiative effects on PE was not statistically significant. The reduction in deposition processes as- sociated with the removal of ice microphysics suppressed efficiency. The relationships related to effects of vertical wind shear, radiation and ice clouds on PEs defined in cloud and surface rainfall budgets were more statistically significant than that defined in the rain microphysical budget.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40874100,41174128)
文摘Gravity waves with periods close to the Brunt-V(a|¨)is(a|¨)l(a|¨) period of the upper troposphere are often observed at mesopause altitudes as short period,quasi-monochromatic waves.The assumption that these short period waves originate in the troposphere may be problematic because their upward propagation to the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region could be significantly impeded due to an extended region of strong evanescence above the stratopause.To reconcile this apparent paradox,an alternative explanation is proposed in this paper.The inclusion of mean winds and their vertical shears is sufficient to allow certain short period waves to remain internal above the stratopause and to propagate efficiently to higher altitudes.A time-dependent numerical model is used to demonstrate the feasibility of this and to determine the circumstances under which the mesospheric wind shears play a role in the removal and directional filtering of short period gravity waves. Finally this paper concludes that the combination of the height-dependent mean winds and the mean temperature structure probably explains the existence of short period,quasi-monochromatic structures observed in airglow images of mesopause region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant number 42075072)support from The Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.
文摘Idealized numerical simulations have been carried out to reveal the complexity in the development of asymmetric convection in a tropical cyclone(TC)under the influence of an environment with either uniform flow,vertical wind shear(VWS),or both.Results show that rainwater is enhanced to the right of the motion in the outer rainband,but such enhancement occurs in the upshear-left area of the inner-core region.Additionally,due to the asymmetries introduced by environmental flow,wavenumber-1 temperature and height anomalies develop at a radius of~1000 km in the upper levels.A sub-vortex aside from the TC center encompassing the wavenumber-1 warm center appears,and asymmetric horizontal winds emerge,which,in turn,changes the storm-scale(within 400 km)VWS.Deep convection in the inner core closely follows the changing storm-scale VWS when its magnitude is larger than 2 m s^(-1) and is located downshear of the storm-scale VWS in all the experiments with environmental flow.In the outer rainbands,the maximum boundary layer convergence is mainly controlled by the direction of motion and is located in the rear-right quadrant.These results extend upon the findings of previous studies in three aspects:(1)The discovery of the roughly linear combination effect from the uniform flow and large-scale VWS;(2)The development of upper-level asymmetric winds on a 1000-km scale through the interaction between the TC vortex and environmental flow,resulting in changes in the storm-scale VWS pattern within the TC area;(3)The revelation that TC asymmetric convection closely aligns with the direction-varying storm-scale VWS instead of the initially designated VWS.
基金Qinghai province key laboratory open fund of disaster prevention and reduction(QHKF201401)Key technology projects of China Meteorological Bureau(CMAGJ2014M21)+3 种基金National Natural Science Fund(41675029,41401504,41671425,41565008)Key Scientific Research Projects in Colleges and Universities(17A170005)China Postdoctoral Fund(2016M602232)Foundation of Henan University(2015YBZR020)
文摘Wind shear reflects that the wind field is not uniform, which is one of the primary factors which make the retrieval of the wind field difficult. Based on volume velocity process(VVP) wind field retrieval technique, the intensity of wind shear is identified in this paper. After analyzing the traditional techniques that rely on the difference of radial velocity to identify wind shear, a fixed difference among radial velocities that may cause false identification in a uniform wind field was found. Because of the non-uniformity in wind shear areas, the difference of retrieved results between surrounding analysis volumes can be used as a measurement to show how strong the wind shear is. According to the analysis of a severe convective weather process that occurred in Guangzhou, it can be found that the areas of wind shear appeared with the strength significantly larger than in other regions and the magnitude generally larger than4.5 m/(s·km). Besides, by comparing the variation of wind shear strength during the convection, it can be found that new cells will be more likely to generate when the strength is above 3.0 m/(s·km). Therefore, the analysis of strong wind shear's movement and development is helpful to forecasting severe convections.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China under Grant 2011CB403405the Chinese Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest under Grant GYHY200806009+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 41075039 and 41175065the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
文摘This study investigates the effects of vertical wind shear on the torrential rainfall response to the large-scale forcing using a rainfall separation analysis of a pair of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments for a pre-summer heavy rainfall event over southern China from 3-8 June 2008 coupled with National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System(GDAS) data.The rainfall partitioning analysis based on the surface rainfall budget indicates that the exclusion of vertical wind shear decreases the contribution to total rainfall from the largest contributor,which is the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor divergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence,through the reduction of the rainfall area and reduced rainfall during the rainfall event.The removal of vertical wind shear increases the contribution to total rainfall from the rainfall associated with local atmospheric drying,water vapor convergence,and hydrometeor loss/convergence through the expansion of the rainfall area and enhanced rainfall.The elimination of vertical wind shear enhances heavy rainfall and expands its area,whereas it reduces moderate rainfall and its area.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51866012).
文摘To overcome the problems of natural decreases in power quality,and to eliminate wind speed fluctuation due to wind shear and tower shadow effect arising from wind turbine structural parameters,an improved prediction model accounting for the dual effect of wind shear and tower shadow is,in this paper,built.Compared to the conventional prediction model,the proposed model contains a new constraint condition,which makes the disturbance term caused by the tower shadow effect always negative so that the prediction result is closer to the actual situation.Furthermore,wind turbine structural parameters such as hub height,rotor diameter,the diameter of the tower top,and rotor overhang on wind shear and tower shadow effect are also explored in detail.The results show that the wind shear effect became weaker with the increase in hub height.The hub height is independent of the tower shadow effect.The rotor diameter is positively correlated with the wind shear and tower shadow effect.The tower shadow effect is positively correlated with the diameter of the tower top and negatively correlated with the rotor overhang.
文摘The wind energy assessment studies are generally performed referring to neutral stability conditions for the atmosphere; this is considered a good hypothesis because neutral conditions characterize the high wind situations. However the increasing size of modem multi megawatt wind turbines allows to produce energy even in low wind regimes and non-neutral conditions can involve significant production period. In such situations the variations of the vertical wind shear can affect the energy production in a sensible way and it could be fundamental to investigate how atmospheric stability and orography can affect the wind profile and the power conversion. In this paper meso-scale numerical data, CFD modeling and remote sensed wind data were used in order to analyze such behavior and to understand how wind shear influences the energy content and the discussion about how to adjust the power curve to the site specific conditions.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers U2342202,42175005,and 42175016]the Qing Lan Project[grant number R2023Q06]。
文摘This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear(VWS),using idealized numerical experiments.Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions.In alignment configurations,shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes,thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region.Subsequently,more vigorous outer rainbands develop,inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation.The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core.Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42192552 and 42475011)。
文摘Tropical cyclone precipitation is a major cause of severe natural hazards.This study analyzes the influence of tropical cyclone intensity,translation speed,and vertical wind shear on precipitation asymmetry using satellite precipitation data,ERA5 reanalysis dataset,and IBTrACS best track data from 2001 to 2020.Results reveal that tropical cyclone asymmetry gradually weakens with increasing storm intensity while it strengthens with higher translation speed and vertical wind shear.Quantitative analysis indicates a more critical role of vertical wind shear in modulating precipitation asymmetry compared to translation speed.These three factors affect storm precipitation individually,and also modulate each other.Specifically,storm intensity is suppressed under backward vertical wind shear.This suppression becomes more pronounced as the vertical wind shear enhances and the absolute angle between vertical wind shear direction and storm motion direction increases.Correspondingly,tropical cyclones exhibit stronger precipitation under forward vertical wind shear than backward.Unlike the intensity suppression mechanism,the rain rates under high vertical wind shear are consistently higher than those under low,with the exception of backward right vertical wind shear.Composite analyses demonstrate that the rainfall preference and the heaviest precipitation are typically located to downshear left.Nevertheless,when the shear is directed towards the rear left relative to the storm motion,the weakened cyclonic circulation under strong backward vertical wind shear reduces its capacity to transport precipitation to the downshear left.In this case,it appears that the forward preference of the rainfall generated by storm motion dominates the precipitation structure.The rainfall preference and the heaviest precipitation are both located to downshear right.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41775027)。
文摘Using over 20,000 dropsonde observations,this study presents a composite analysis of atmospheric ducts(ADs)under tropical cyclone(TC)conditions,revealing their asymmetric distribution relative to TC structure.In addition to examining the influence of TC motion on the spatial distribution of ADs,this research also investigates the impact of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the asymmetry of AD characteristics.This study provides the first statistical characterization of AD properties within the eye region of TCs.The results reveal distinct structural features of elevated ducts(ELDs),with their strength,thickness,and occurrence probability progressively increasing with radial distance from the TC center.Within the radius of maximum wind(RMW),ELD strength,thickness,and occurrence probability are significantly lower than the overall average,indicating that the TC eye is generally unfavorable for ELD formation.Compared to TC motion,VWS induces more pronounced asymmetries,especially beyond the radius of the outermost closed isobar(ROCI).ELDs in the left-front(LF)quadrant relative to VWS are typically weaker,shallower,and less frequent,while those in the right-back(RB)quadrant are stronger,deeper,and more frequent.The contrast intensifies with stronger VWS,with the greatest asymmetry shifting from the LF to the RB quadrant when VWS exceeds 20 m s-1.Statistical analysis further reveals that TC intensity influences ELD properties.Outside ROCI,ELDs under tropical depressions exhibit significant differences compared to those associated with higher-intensity TCs.These findings enhance current understanding of AD behavior under TC conditions and may offer valuable guidance for designing and operating electromagnetic communication systems in severe weather environments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41875171,41675135)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2408085MD085)Key research and development project of Anhui Province(Grant No.1804a0802215)。
文摘To explore the formation mechanism of severe dense fog(SDF),we compare the similarities and differences in surface meteorological conditions and boundary layer structures among SDF,dense fog(DF)and heavy haze(HH)events based on observations from tethered balloon soundings,microwave radiometers,wind profiler radars and conventional ground-based meteorological stations,as well as analysis fields from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.In addition,we investigate the roles and mechanisms of ultra low-level jets(ULLJs)and vertical wind shear in the formation of the SDF.The results indicate that during the formation and development stages of the SDF,the maximum surface cooling exceeds 4℃,whereas no obvious cooling was observed during DF and HH events.Additionally,during the formation and maintenance stages of the SDF,the boundary layer was characterized by strong temperature inversion,an“upper-level dry and lower-level wet”(UDLW)structure,the presence of an ULLJ,and pronounced vertical wind shear.Similar ULLJs(or strong wind speeds)and vertical wind shear also occurred during DF and HH events.The latter featured a deep and strong inversion,but without the UDLW structure.The above differences indicate the following formation mechanisms of the SDF.(1)On SDF days,northerly(non-northerly)winds prevailed above(below)the jet,forming an UDLW structure that favors surface radiative cooling and humidification.In contrast,on DF and HH days,southerly winds prevailed above the jet,which was not conducive to the formation of the UDLW structure and surface radiative cooling.(2)The SDF days featured vertical wind shear that resulted in a distinct“upper-level stable and lower-level turbulent”structure in the surface layer,whereas the boundary layer remained generally stable on HH days.Consequently,the key factor determining whether the HH evolves into the SDF is the vertical wind profile within the boundary layer,which governs the formation of the UDLW structure and further creates the cooling,moistening and turbulence conditions favorable for the formation and maintenance of SDF.
