Weather-related failures significantly challenge the reliability of distribution systems. To enhance the risk management of weather-related failures, an interpretable extra-trees based weather-related risk prediction ...Weather-related failures significantly challenge the reliability of distribution systems. To enhance the risk management of weather-related failures, an interpretable extra-trees based weather-related risk prediction model is proposed in this study. In the proposed model, the interpretability is successfully introduced to extra-trees by analyzing and processing the paths of decision trees in extra-trees. As a result, the interpretability of the proposed model is reflected in the following three respects: it can output the importance, contribution, and threshold of weather variables at high risk. The importance of weather variables can help in developing a long-term risk prevention plan. The contribution of weather variables provides targeted operation and maintenance advice for the next prediction period. The threshold of weather variables at high risk is critical in further preventing high risks. Compared with the black-box machine learning risk prediction models, the proposed model overcomes the application limitations. In addition to generating predicted risk levels, it can also provide more guidance information for the risk management of weather-related failures.展开更多
This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire b...This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences,and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather.The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone.Instead,they are reactions to the experience of impacts,for example,an increased number of missions or emergency calls.Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making.Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade.While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment,verified by ground truth,observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations.The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services,the weather service,and other organizations to integrate weather information,impacts,and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.展开更多
This research investigates the impact of changing weather conditions on the crew members who sit in a side-by-side cockpit, which is unusual for attack helicopters. Extensive review conducted by the authors fails to l...This research investigates the impact of changing weather conditions on the crew members who sit in a side-by-side cockpit, which is unusual for attack helicopters. Extensive review conducted by the authors fails to locate similar studies;hence a helicopter simulator is developed in order to conduct the experiments. The simulator represents the realistic flight characteristics as well as the digital cockpit instruments that contain the advanced mission equipment. During the experiments, a camcorder is used to record the pilots to accurately analyze the task completion time and the physical motions of both pilots. NASA-TLX is also used to collect the workload data to assess the impact of task assignments among the pilots. The analytical findings from this study will be instrumental in improving the cockpit design for enhanced mission effectiveness.展开更多
文摘Weather-related failures significantly challenge the reliability of distribution systems. To enhance the risk management of weather-related failures, an interpretable extra-trees based weather-related risk prediction model is proposed in this study. In the proposed model, the interpretability is successfully introduced to extra-trees by analyzing and processing the paths of decision trees in extra-trees. As a result, the interpretability of the proposed model is reflected in the following three respects: it can output the importance, contribution, and threshold of weather variables at high risk. The importance of weather variables can help in developing a long-term risk prevention plan. The contribution of weather variables provides targeted operation and maintenance advice for the next prediction period. The threshold of weather variables at high risk is critical in further preventing high risks. Compared with the black-box machine learning risk prediction models, the proposed model overcomes the application limitations. In addition to generating predicted risk levels, it can also provide more guidance information for the risk management of weather-related failures.
基金This research network of universities,research institutes,and the Deutscher Wetterdienst is funded by the BMVI(Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure).
文摘This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences,and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather.The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone.Instead,they are reactions to the experience of impacts,for example,an increased number of missions or emergency calls.Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making.Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade.While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment,verified by ground truth,observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations.The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services,the weather service,and other organizations to integrate weather information,impacts,and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.
文摘This research investigates the impact of changing weather conditions on the crew members who sit in a side-by-side cockpit, which is unusual for attack helicopters. Extensive review conducted by the authors fails to locate similar studies;hence a helicopter simulator is developed in order to conduct the experiments. The simulator represents the realistic flight characteristics as well as the digital cockpit instruments that contain the advanced mission equipment. During the experiments, a camcorder is used to record the pilots to accurately analyze the task completion time and the physical motions of both pilots. NASA-TLX is also used to collect the workload data to assess the impact of task assignments among the pilots. The analytical findings from this study will be instrumental in improving the cockpit design for enhanced mission effectiveness.
