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A Numerical Research on the Influences of the Diurnal Variation of Solar Radiation on the Medium-Range Weather Processes
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作者 黄伯银 赵高祥 纪立人 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1992年第2期231-236,共6页
In this paper, we use a spectral model for the medium-range numerical weather forecast to discuss the impact of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on the medium-range weather processes. Under the tests of two ty... In this paper, we use a spectral model for the medium-range numerical weather forecast to discuss the impact of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on the medium-range weather processes. Under the tests of two typical winter and summer cases, we find that the influences of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on summer weather are really important, especially on its rainfall, surface heat transport and 500 hPa height field. On winter weather, however, the influences are very weak. 展开更多
关键词 In A Numerical Research on the Influences of the Diurnal Variation of Solar Radiation on the Medium-Range weather processes
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Analysis of Rainfall Weather Process in Most of China from 3-6 October, 2021
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作者 Yifei Liu 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2022年第11期184-193,共10页
Heavy rain is a common abnormal weather in China, which is prone to major natural disasters such as floods. By using China National Climate Center’s DERF2.0 (the second-generation product of monthly dynamic extended ... Heavy rain is a common abnormal weather in China, which is prone to major natural disasters such as floods. By using China National Climate Center’s DERF2.0 (the second-generation product of monthly dynamic extended ensemble prediction) models and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data, and using synoptic and dynamic methods and other research methods, the rainfall weather process in most of China from October 3-6, 2021 is analyzed. The results show that: 1) this process had a long duration, large cumulative rainfall and strong extreme. 2) The warm and wet flow and the cold air intersected in the central and western regions of China and Northeast China, which resulted in a regional rainstorm process within ten days. 3) There was a low-level jet moving from Guizhou and Hunan to the south of Northeast China, bringing a lot of water vapor. To sum up, the rainfall process of this round has a certain relationship with the adjustment of atmospheric circulation. 展开更多
关键词 Rainfall weather process Subtropical High Warm and Wet Flow Cold Vortex Low-Level Shear Line
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Analysis on the Heavy Snow Weather Process in Benxi Area 被引量:1
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作者 KOU Si-cong CAO Wen 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第1期24-27,共4页
[Objective] The aim was to study the formation and development of a heavy snow in Benxi area. [Method] Based on conventional meteorological data, the formation and development of a heavy snow in Benxi area from Decemb... [Objective] The aim was to study the formation and development of a heavy snow in Benxi area. [Method] Based on conventional meteorological data, the formation and development of a heavy snow in Benxi area from December 4th to 5th in 2009 were analyzed from the aspects of weather situation evolution and physical quantity field feature. [Result] The heavy snow was caused by upper trough and North China cyclone. In this process, there was upper level divergence and lower level convergence over Benxi area, and it was warm at low attitude and cold at high attitude; southwest jet at low attitude transported water vapor from Bohai Sea to eastern Liaoning, which provided good water vapor condition for snow, but it didn’t reach heavy snow due to inadequate ascending force. The development of Ural Mountains high ridge played an important role in the snow process and the strengthened high ridge moving northward was beneficial to the southward movement of cold air and deepening of upper trough. Analysis on physical quantity field could provide reference for predicting beginning and ending time and strength of heavy snow. [Conclusion] The study could provide basis for the forecast of heavy snow. 展开更多
关键词 Heavy snow weather situation Physical quantity process analysis Benxi area China
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The Effects of Terrain Slope and Orientation on Different Weather Processes in China under Different Model Resolutions 被引量:1
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作者 黄丹青 钱永甫 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 2009年第5期617-628,共12页
Currently, short horizontal surface wave radiation at the ground surface (GSW) is calculated under the assumption of a This method of estimating the GSW may lead to considerable errors when the model resolution beco... Currently, short horizontal surface wave radiation at the ground surface (GSW) is calculated under the assumption of a This method of estimating the GSW may lead to considerable errors when the model resolution becomes higher and the model terrain becomes steeper. In this paper, to improve the short wave solar radiation simulations, a terrain slope and orientation parameterization has been implemented into the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System). The effects of the terrain slope and orientation on different short range weather processes in China under different model resolutions are simulated and discussed. In the simulations, topography height is taken from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) with a resolution of 1 km, and the slope and orientation of terrain are calculated using different staggering schemes and under different weather conditions. The results show that when the model resolution is low (30 and 60 km) and the slope of terrain is not large, the influence of the slope and orientation of terrain on the GSW is not evident; otherwise, however, it is not negligible. Under high model resolutions (3 and 6 km), the increase (decrease) of simulated precipitation corresponds to the decrease (increase) of the GSW induced by the slope effect, and the variations of precipitation are usually ranged between -5 and 5 ram. Under the high resolution, the surface temperature and heat fluxes are strongly correlated to each other and the high correlation exists mostly in the complex terrain regions. The changes of the GSW, precipitation, surface temperature, and heat fluxes induced by the effects of the terrain slope and orientation are more obvious in mountainous regions, due to the alternations in the atmospheric circulation. It is found as well that under the weather condition of less cloud and less precipitation, the effects of the terrain slope and orientation can be more realistically seen. Therefore, the terrain slope and orientation can usually be neglected in numerical models when the horizontal model resolution is low and the slopes are moderate, but should be taken into account when the model resolution becomes high and the terrain is steep and undulating. 展开更多
关键词 mesoscale model GRAPES slope irradiation terrain slope and orientation weather processes
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CHARACTERISTICS OF TURBULENCE SPECTRA IN DIFFERENT WEATHER PROCESSES UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
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作者 朱文琴 朱翠娟 李兴生 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 1994年第3期296-304,共9页
In this paper,the data chosen from measurements by supersonic anemometers in Tongxian County of Beijing in 1990 are used to study characteristics of turbulence spectra in precipitation weather.Some turbulence paramete... In this paper,the data chosen from measurements by supersonic anemometers in Tongxian County of Beijing in 1990 are used to study characteristics of turbulence spectra in precipitation weather.Some turbulence parameters such as turbulence intensity,heat and momentum fluxes,friction velocity,M-O length and stability parameter are calculated and their dependence on turbulence spectra in different stability conditions are analyzed.Some encouraging results are obtained and compared with others' results. 展开更多
关键词 turbulence spectra wind velocity stability weather processes
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A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF THE QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER PROCESSES OF THE SUMMER MONSOON RAIN IN EAST ASIA
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作者 燕启民 郑庆林 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 1991年第2期171-183,共13页
By employing the T42L9 spectral model introduced flom ECMWF and utilizing the FGGE-III_b data covering the period from 14 June to 19 June 1979,the effects of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the medium- range weather pro... By employing the T42L9 spectral model introduced flom ECMWF and utilizing the FGGE-III_b data covering the period from 14 June to 19 June 1979,the effects of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the medium- range weather processes of the rain during the onset period of the summer monsoon in Eastern Asia in 1979 were studied numerically.According to the initial field of 12GMT 14 June 1979,five-day numerical experiments with or without the orographic effects were carried out respectively.The results show that the Plateau can influence the precipitation significantly during the summer monsoon season.Although the summer monsoon is the result of the seasonal variations of the global circulation and the heating difference between land and sea,it is influenced evidently by the Plateau in medium-range processes.There are very complex interactions between the mountain and diabatic heating effects so that both of them should be considered correctly in the general circulation models in order to describe the nature of the atmosphere reliably. 展开更多
关键词 Qinghai-Xizang Plateau dynamic and thermodynamic effects medium-range weather processes summer monsoon
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Composition, origin and weathering process of surface sediment in Kumtagh Desert, Northwest China 被引量:14
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作者 XU Zhiwei LU Huayu +6 位作者 ZHAO Cunfa WANG Xianyan SU Zhizhu WANG Zhenting LIU Hongyi WANG Lixin LU Qi 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第6期1062-1076,共15页
Kumtagh Desert is one of the eight biggest deserts in China, but poorly investigated before our interdisciplinary study because of the difficulty of access. In this paper, 33 representative surface sediment samples we... Kumtagh Desert is one of the eight biggest deserts in China, but poorly investigated before our interdisciplinary study because of the difficulty of access. In this paper, 33 representative surface sediment samples were collected from the Kumtagh Desert and analyzed in the laboratory to obtain heavy mineral components and geochemical element contents. Results show that various kinds of heavy minerals are present in these samples, with high levels of epidote and hornblende. Si and AI take up a large part of chemical composition. Compared with the average composition of geochemical elements of the upper continental crust (UCC), except Si and Ca, all elements are depleted to a certain degree; Fe, Mg, Ca, P, Ti and Mn have high correlation coefficients in their contents. The mineral and geochemical composition of the Kumtagh Desert sediments have a similarity with that of rocks of Altyn Tagh Mountains, and the surface sediments of the alluvial/diluvial fans around the Altyn Tagh Mountains and that of the Taklamakan Desert, indicating that one major source of the Kumtagh Desert sediments is located in the Altyn Tagh Mountains. Alluvial deposits and lake sediments in Aqik valley and lower reaches of Shule River are prone to be eroded and transported by the strong northeasterly wind into the Kumtagh Desert, forming another source of the desert deposits. An A-CN-K ternary diagram shows that a weak degree chemical weathering by the loss of Na and K occurred in these sediments, whereas A-CNK-FM ternary diagram suggests that Fe and Mg have undergone a significant chemical differentiation. Physical weathering processes cause easy erosion and enrichment in fine particles for mafic minerals, thus coarse desert sand particles can be relatively depleted in Fe and Mg. The mineral and geochemical composition of sediments in arid regions experiencing less chemical weathering are mostly affected by physical weathering. 展开更多
关键词 MINERALS geochemical elements sediment provenance weathering process Kumtagh Desert
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Detrital Mode and Geochemistry of the Shurijeh Formation (Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous) in the Central and Western Parts of the Intracontinental Kopet-Dagh Basin, NE Iran: Implications for Provenance, Tectonic Setting and Weathering Processes 被引量:1
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作者 M. MORTAZAVI R. MOUSSAVI-HARAMI A. MAHBOUBI 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第4期1058-1080,共23页
Petrographical and geochemical methods were combined to investigate the provenance, geodynamic and weathering history of the Shurijeh sandstones, Kopet-Dagh Basin. The point-counting method and XRF technique are used ... Petrographical and geochemical methods were combined to investigate the provenance, geodynamic and weathering history of the Shurijeh sandstones, Kopet-Dagh Basin. The point-counting method and XRF technique are used for modal and geochemical analyses. Based on petrographical examinations, it seems that the Shurijeh sandstones are mainly deposited in the craton interior and recycled orogen belts. In addition to petrographical investigation, geochemical analyses (major oxides and trace elements) of Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous rocks reveal that the sedimentation processes are performed in a passive continental margin. Such interpretation is supported with geodynamic and paleogeographical studies of the Kopeh-Dagh basin during this time. The geochemical investigations suggested that the composition of probable source rocks mostly was acidic-intermediate with minor mafic igneous rocks. Based on the above, Paleo-Tethys remnants and their collision-related granitoids, in the south and west of Mashhad, may have been the source area for these rocks. CIA values, which range from 63.8 to 94.9 in samples, are suggesting a moderate to relatively high degree of alteration (weathering) in the source area. Therefore, petrographical and paleogeographical studies of siliciclastic rocks can be used for the provenance, tectonic setting and paleoweathering studies in the source area. 展开更多
关键词 PETROGRAPHY GEOCHEMISTRY tectonic setting PROVENANCE weathering processes ShurijehFormation
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Process optimization of rare earth and aluminum leaching from weathered crust elution-deposited rare earth ore with compound ammonium salts 被引量:42
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作者 何正艳 张臻悦 +2 位作者 余军霞 徐志高 池汝安 《Journal of Rare Earths》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第4期413-419,共7页
In order to intensify the leaching process of rare earth(RE) and reduce the impurities in the leachate, ammonium chloride(NH4Cl) and ammonium nitrate(NH4NO3) were mixed as a compound leaching agent to treat the ... In order to intensify the leaching process of rare earth(RE) and reduce the impurities in the leachate, ammonium chloride(NH4Cl) and ammonium nitrate(NH4NO3) were mixed as a compound leaching agent to treat the weathered crust elution-deposited RE ore. Effects of molar ratio of NH~+_4Cl and NH_4NO_3, ammonium(NH_4) concentration, leaching agent pH and flow rate on the leaching process of RE were studied and evaluated by the chromatographic plate theory. Leaching process of the main impurity aluminium(Al) was also discussed in detail. Results showed that a higher initial ammonium concentration in a certain range could enhance the mass transfer process of RE and Al by providing a driving force to overcome the resistance of diffusion. pH almost had no effects on the mass transfer efficiency of RE and Al in the range of 4 to 8. The relationship between the flow rate and height equivalent to a theoretical plate(HETP) could fit well with the Van Deemter equation, and the flow rate at the lowest HETP was determined. The optimum conditions of column leaching for RE and Al were 1:1(molar ratio) of NH_4Cl and NH_4NO_3, 0.2 mol/L of ammonium concentration, pH 4–8 of leaching agent and 0.5 mL /min of flow rate. Under this condition, the mass transfer efficiency of RE was improved, but no change was observed for Al compared with the most widely used ammonium sulfate. Moreover, the significant difference value(around 20 mL) of retention volume at the peak concentration between RE and Al provided a possibility for their separation. It suggested the potential application of the novel compound leaching agent(NH_4Cl/NH_4NO_3). It was found that the relative concentration of RE in the leachate could be easily obtained by monitoring the pH of leachate. 展开更多
关键词 weathered crust elution-deposited rare earth ore aluminum leaching process mass transfer ammonium chloride ammonium nitrate
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Weathering Processes on Martian Craters: Implications on Recurring Slope Lineae and the Location of Liquid Water
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作者 Pablo Garcia-Chevesich Eduardo Bendek +5 位作者 Roberto Pizarro Rodrigo Valdes-Pineda David Gonzalez Horacio Bown Eduardo Martínez Luis Gonzalez 《Open Journal of Modern Hydrology》 2017年第4期245-256,共12页
Recent attention has been put into recurring slope lineae (RSL), after the discovery that water is present in them. It is assumed that RSL are due to flowing water. However, even though that might be the case, the gen... Recent attention has been put into recurring slope lineae (RSL), after the discovery that water is present in them. It is assumed that RSL are due to flowing water. However, even though that might be the case, the general characteristics of RSL as well as their seasonal and spatial distribution in Mars, and their occurrence within craters, suggest that RSL correspond to the weathering of frozen aquifers, which coincides with slope stability processes occurring in impact craters and scree slopes from Earth. In this study, we associated RSL with similar weathering processes occurring on impact craters and hydrogeological processes occurring on Earth (including ice, water, and wind erosion and natural aquifer recharge processes). We were able to create a conceptual model on how RSL develop, why are they found mostly in mid latitudes around craters, why are they present in more frequency in one side of crates in high latitudes, and why are there more RSL in the Martian southern hemisphere. Considering the whole hydrogeological processes occurring in craters that experience RSL, we were able to predict where large quantities of liquid water are most likely to be present in the red planet. 展开更多
关键词 MARS Recurring SLOPE Lineae (RSL) weatherING processes CRATERS GROUNDWATER
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青藏高原地-气相互作用过程及其天气、气候效应观测研究进展
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作者 马耀明 王宾宾 +15 位作者 姚楠 孙丽君 蔡征岭 石兴东 胡泽勇 马伟强 仲雷 李茂善 陈学龙 韩存博 谢志鹏 刘莲 刘新 王永杰 王忠彦 马彬 《气象学报》 北大核心 2025年第4期887-903,共17页
青藏高原海拔高、辐射强,地表向大气输送了大量的热量和水汽,调节着区域大气边界层发展和云降水过程,其“感热气泵效应”对高原本身及其周边地区的天气、气候变化和大气环流发展影响显著。青藏高原环境恶劣,地表综合观测站点缺乏,严重... 青藏高原海拔高、辐射强,地表向大气输送了大量的热量和水汽,调节着区域大气边界层发展和云降水过程,其“感热气泵效应”对高原本身及其周边地区的天气、气候变化和大气环流发展影响显著。青藏高原环境恶劣,地表综合观测站点缺乏,严重制约了对青藏高原地-气相互作用过程及其区域天气、气候效应的认识与理解。自20世纪80年代以来,针对青藏高原地区地-气相互作用过程、大气边界层过程、云降水过程和高原区域天气、气候效应研究开展了诸多大型野外观测试验项目,并取得了丰硕的研究成果。特别是2017年以来,国家重大科技专项“第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究”项目启动,并在前期观测研究项目的基础上,开展了大量有针对性的综合观测试验研究。将从2019年以来青藏高原地-气相互作用过程及其天气、气候效应的观测视角,系统梳理、归纳和汇总青藏高原地-气相互作用过程、大气边界层过程、云降水过程和青藏高原天气、气候效应的相关观测研究进展。 展开更多
关键词 观测研究进展 地-气相互作用过程 大气边界层过程 天气、气候效应 青藏高原
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江淮夏季不同对流过程的无人机边界层观测特征分析 被引量:1
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作者 李厚凝 李昕 +2 位作者 李煜斌 吴泓 曾明剑 《大气科学学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期136-151,共16页
利用2019年7—10月江苏盐城5个站点的旋翼无人机观测资料,对夏季对流天气发生前的大气边界层特征进行分析。选取ERA5和L波段雷达探空对旋翼无人机观测的温度、湿度和风场数据进行了观测偏差和误差的定量化估计。结果表明,在不同高度层,... 利用2019年7—10月江苏盐城5个站点的旋翼无人机观测资料,对夏季对流天气发生前的大气边界层特征进行分析。选取ERA5和L波段雷达探空对旋翼无人机观测的温度、湿度和风场数据进行了观测偏差和误差的定量化估计。结果表明,在不同高度层,无人机观测温度与探空观测的平均偏差为-0.2~0.02℃,观测误差为0.44~0.59℃;相对湿度与ERA5的平均偏差为1.27%~7.14%,观测误差为7.14%~10.71%;风速、风向与探空观测的平均偏差分别为0.40~1.34 m/s和-3.87°~4.98°,观测误差分别为1.24~1.62 m/s和10.50°~23.96°。各变量同两个参考数据集具有较好的一致性,数据准确度满足边界层分析要求。针对3类不同天气背景下的夏季对流天气过程进行了边界层特征分析,无人机观测揭示了重要的信息:对于非天气尺度强迫的弱降水个例,无人机观测捕捉到了降水前边界层顶逆温层高度变化和局地风场辐合,边界层内的状态变化解释了弱降水成因;对于天气尺度强迫且主导系统位置稳定的降水个例,降水由大尺度低层不稳定导致,边界层特征呈现出对大尺度强迫的响应;对于天气尺度强迫且系统快速移动的降水个例,因平流引起边界层内气象要素迅速变化,边界层高度由于冷空气入侵急剧下降,近地层出现风向与主导系统移动方向一致的风速大值区。 展开更多
关键词 无人机观测 对流天气过程 边界层观测特征
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中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目2024年度最新进展
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作者 陈海山 张耀存 +16 位作者 张文君 尹志聪 陈国森 华文剑 黄丹青 况雪源 刘芸芸 马红云 施宁 孙善磊 魏江峰 赵海坤 张杰 韩婷婷 李文铠 桑英涵 王润 《大气科学学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期177-206,共30页
围绕“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”2024年度主要进展,从极端事件变化的观测事实、环流特征与动力学机理,海洋关键过程与海气相互作用机理,海洋过程对极端天气气候的影响,陆面过... 围绕“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”2024年度主要进展,从极端事件变化的观测事实、环流特征与动力学机理,海洋关键过程与海气相互作用机理,海洋过程对极端天气气候的影响,陆面过程及其影响研究,极端事件模拟与预测等5个方面介绍了项目的最新研究成果。1)揭示了变暖趋势对中国近40年破纪录高温事件的影响,基于通用热气候指数分析了中国区域极端高温事件的时空变化特征,探讨了不同增暖期中国东部极端降水的演变规律,阐明了长江中下游极端热浪事件的热、动力学特征,并归因了人类活动对亚洲热点区域极端温度事件的影响。2)量化了前期冬季北太平洋涛动对后期ENSO发展的作用,指出热带太平洋年际-年代际变率在超长La Nina事件形成有重要贡献;揭示了La Nina纬向位置对印度洋偶极子的调制机理,发现ENSO对东海-黑潮区域海温的影响存在季节性反转;开展了黑潮延伸体区域SST异常和海洋热浪的季节可预报性研究,阐明了非线性过程对大气季节内振荡的作用,探讨了多因子影响北大西洋多年代际变化的物理机制。3)揭示了ENSO对晚冬“暖北极-冷欧亚”模态的非对称影响,发现了其与中国东部前、后冬降水模态及黑潮反气旋的联系,并阐释了对东海-黑潮区海温和东亚降水的季节性变化机理;指出Mega-ENSO与西北太平洋台风生成区域的向极移动存在密切联系,揭示了热带跨洋盆海气相互作用对台风生成位置和频次的影响过程;发现南极变暖驱动南大西洋变暖是2022年东亚高温热浪的重要成因,热带北大西洋变率显著调控我国东北森林野火。4)揭示了欧亚大陆土壤湿度次季节变化对我国北方群发性极端降水事件的影响机制,评估了积雪覆盖对温度次季节变化及预测的影响;开展了陆面因子与陆气耦合过程影响干旱的归因与预估研究;阐明了陆面过程与海陆协同影响中国夏季降水和超级梅雨、极端降水的物理机制;评估了华北夏季灌溉对降水日循环和区域水循环的影响及城市化对珠三角暖季中尺度对流系统和强降水的影响。5)系统评估了CMIP6模式对“暖北极-冷欧亚”模态前后冬次季节反转的模拟能力,构建了中国东南区域复合极端湿热事件的季节预测模型;利用年际增量方法构建了华北盛夏强降水频次的物理统计预测模型,基于深度学习方法改进长江中下游流域夏季极端降水动力模式的预测性能;同步开展了动力模式的发展及预测应用研究。最后,展望了面临的挑战和需要进一步加强研究的相关问题,以期为推动我国极端天气气候领域的研究提供一定参考。 展开更多
关键词 极端天气气候事件 海气相互作用 陆面过程 机理 预测
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2024年中国主要气候风险及气象灾害概述 被引量:3
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作者 王雅琦 王国复 +2 位作者 刘远 乔琦 徐沅鑫 《气象科学》 2025年第1期1-12,共12页
本文利用1961—2024年中国区域2400余站地面气象逐日观测数据和灾情数据,采用气候年景指数、气候风险指数以及客观化气象灾害过程识别方法,对2024年中国主要气候风险特征及气象灾害进行系统性分析。结果表明,2024年我国气候年景总体偏差... 本文利用1961—2024年中国区域2400余站地面气象逐日观测数据和灾情数据,采用气候年景指数、气候风险指数以及客观化气象灾害过程识别方法,对2024年中国主要气候风险特征及气象灾害进行系统性分析。结果表明,2024年我国气候年景总体偏差,气候风险指数为1961年以来最高,气象灾害造成的损失偏重。其中,区域型暴雨过程次数偏多,降水量大,华南前汛期降水量较常年偏多40%,长江中下游梅雨较常年偏多51%,气候风险指数创历史新高,造成重大人员伤亡和经济损失;高温过程次数偏少但持续时间长、范围广,高温风险指数为1961年以来第二高;干旱次数偏少且风险指数偏低,区域特征显著;台风登陆次数偏多,秋季台风活跃且极端性强,风险指数较常年值偏低;冷空气过程次数偏多,风险指数较常年值偏高。 展开更多
关键词 气候年景 气候风险指数 区域性极端天气过程 气象灾害
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寒潮天气下考虑风速波动差异性的风电功率概率预测方法
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作者 梁志峰 周皓阳 +3 位作者 杨明 康重庆 孙大雁 刘毅 《电网与清洁能源》 北大核心 2025年第6期106-114,共9页
新型电力系统中风电装机占比持续增加,其受复杂天气变化的冲击程度也不断加深。寒潮天气下风速的波动变化规律与常规天气相比差异显著,传统的风电功率单值预测方法难以适用,容易出现极大预测偏差,且无法提供有效的预测不确定性信息。分... 新型电力系统中风电装机占比持续增加,其受复杂天气变化的冲击程度也不断加深。寒潮天气下风速的波动变化规律与常规天气相比差异显著,传统的风电功率单值预测方法难以适用,容易出现极大预测偏差,且无法提供有效的预测不确定性信息。分析了寒潮天气下传统预测方法的风电功率预测误差特征及其与风速波动场景的关联关系,进而依据风速波动情况提出划分判据,将风速序列分为平稳波动场景和剧烈波动场景,同时基于生成对抗网络解决风速剧烈波动场景的小样本问题,最终基于长短期记忆神经网络和分位数回归模型,实现了寒潮天气下风电功率概率预测的分场景建模。算例分析表明,所提方法有效地提升了寒潮天气下的风电功率预测精度,同时也显著改进了概率预测的可靠性和灵敏度。 展开更多
关键词 寒潮天气过程 风速波动场景 小样本扩充 概率预测
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静稳天气条件对石河子市大气重污染过程的影响
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作者 陈非凡 任岗 +6 位作者 何清 陆忠奇 王进 赵竹君 安冬亮 张红伟 吴春霞 《中国环境监测》 北大核心 2025年第3期34-48,共15页
为深入了解静稳天气对天山北坡污染过程的影响,基于石河子市2018—2023年地面观测数据及再分析资料,利用统计学方法构建了石河子市本地化静稳指数体系,结合环流背景、激光雷达及后向轨迹模拟,对2023年1月15—22日重污染天气过程进行综... 为深入了解静稳天气对天山北坡污染过程的影响,基于石河子市2018—2023年地面观测数据及再分析资料,利用统计学方法构建了石河子市本地化静稳指数体系,结合环流背景、激光雷达及后向轨迹模拟,对2023年1月15—22日重污染天气过程进行综合分析。结果表明:2018年3月1日—2023年2月28日,石河子市静稳天气指数(SWI)与PM2.5、AQI对应关系较强,石河子市冬季污染主要受静稳天气影响,SWI长时间维持在13以上,导致污染物低空累积。环流形式表明:石河子市受蒙古高压及脊前西北气流控制,地面长时间维持静小风,污染的消散主要依赖天气过程的扰动;垂直探测显示,该过程中污染物主要分布在600 m以下,浓度高值主要集中在200~300 m高度处,能见度维持在2 km左右;静稳天气维持过程中,600 m以下气流运动缓慢,难与其他高度气流在垂向上混合,影响污染扩散。 展开更多
关键词 静稳天气指数 重污染过程 激光雷达 天山北坡
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Diagnostic Analysis on a Regional Rainstorm Weather in North-central Henan Province 被引量:1
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作者 SUN Zhong-yi ZHANG Zhen LI Ji-hua 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第6期19-23,共5页
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteoro... [Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteorological Station, the diagnostic analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on a rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province on July 19, 2010 was carried out. The characteristics of physical quantity field and the evolution of weather situation in north-central Henan Province when the rainstorm happened were studied. [Result] Western Pacific subtropical high strengthened to extend westward. The dynamic uplifting of low vortex at the middle and low layers, the strong water vapor transportation of southwest low-level jet caused the regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. The diagnostic results of physical quantity showed that the deep, thick wet layer and the sustained water vapor convergence provided the abundant water vapor for rainstorm generation. The positive vorticity advection center developed and spread from northwest to southeast, which was favorable for the development of vertical movement. The structure maintenance of positive vorticity at the middle and low layers, negative vorticity at the middle and high levels provided the power condition for the regional rainstorm generation. The pumping effect of convergence at the middle and low layers, divergence at the high layer was favorable for the strengthening of vertical ascending motion at the low layer. The uplifting effect of dew point front at the middle and low layers triggered the release of unstable energy. The confrontation of warm and cold air was one of the important reasons for the regional rainstorm. TBB characteristic analysis showed that TBB was from -60 to -50 ℃ in north-central Henan Province in the whole strong precipitation time, and the moving speed was equivalent to that of southwest vortex. The low-value belt of TBB corresponded with the rainstorm occurrence zone in Henan, and the minimum-value center of TBB was basically consistent with the strongest center of precipitation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the short-term forecast of rainstorm. 展开更多
关键词 North-central Henan Province Regional rainstorm weather process Diagnostic analysis China
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基于层次分析法和主成分分析法的石窟砂岩风化程度评估
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作者 黄继忠 赵杰 +3 位作者 程远 甘志鑫 胡金帅 张悦 《上海大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第1期28-42,共15页
砂岩质石窟是典型的石窟类型之一,在长期自然环境和人类活动的双重作用下,均面临不同程度的风化问题.已有研究多采用单项检测技术评估石窟砂岩的风化程度,但单项指标往往难以全面反映真实的风化状况.为克服这一局限性,开展了不同环境下... 砂岩质石窟是典型的石窟类型之一,在长期自然环境和人类活动的双重作用下,均面临不同程度的风化问题.已有研究多采用单项检测技术评估石窟砂岩的风化程度,但单项指标往往难以全面反映真实的风化状况.为克服这一局限性,开展了不同环境下的模拟风化试验,制备了不同风化程度的砂岩样品,并选取质量、超声波速、磁化率和化学元素含量等多个指标,分别对样品进行了表征.基于层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)和主成分分析法(principal component analysis,PCA),从主观和客观两个层面分别对石窟砂岩的风化程度进行多指标综合评估.研究结果表明,对于不同风化类型和程度的砂岩样品,AHP和PCA方法获得的综合风化程度评分具有较高的一致性.与单项检测指标相比,所提出的综合评价方法与砂岩的实际风化进程呈现更强的相关性,为石窟砂岩风化程度的精确评估提供了可靠的新方法. 展开更多
关键词 石窟砂岩 无损检测 风化评估 层次分析法 主成分分析法
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基于多模式降水与水文模型的径流预报不确定性分析
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作者 向怡衡 彭涛 +2 位作者 殷志远 祁海霞 沈铁元 《水科学进展》 北大核心 2025年第4期621-633,共13页
为提升流域径流预报的精度与可靠性,以清江流域为例,构建了基于多模式降水(ECMWF与NCEP)与多水文模型(GR4J与XAJ)的9种径流预报方案,并引入基于随机天气发生器的统计后处理(GPP)方法校正模式降水偏差,从确定性、概率性及不确定性3方面... 为提升流域径流预报的精度与可靠性,以清江流域为例,构建了基于多模式降水(ECMWF与NCEP)与多水文模型(GR4J与XAJ)的9种径流预报方案,并引入基于随机天气发生器的统计后处理(GPP)方法校正模式降水偏差,从确定性、概率性及不确定性3方面系统评估集合径流预报性能。结果表明:GPP方法提升了模式降水质量,进而改善了径流预报精度,尤其对误差较大的NCEP预报产品,校正效果显著;优选精度更高的降水预报产品并结合多水文模型集成策略,可进一步提升集合径流预报性能;在2020年典型洪水事件检验中,各方案在1 d和3 d预见期下均能准确捕捉峰现时间,其中多水文模型集成方案的集合平均峰值流量接近于实测洪峰。 展开更多
关键词 集合径流预报 数值预报模式 水文模型 后处理 不确定性
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Analysis of a Cold Wave Process in Jiujiang and Its Numerical Model Forecast 被引量:1
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作者 Jingjing ZHANG Yuting FEI Rong LI 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2021年第3期11-14,共4页
The cold wave weather process in Jiujiang in the early spring of February 2020 was analyzed.The results show that the establishment of blocking high near Lake Baikal and the rapid southward of cold air after accumulat... The cold wave weather process in Jiujiang in the early spring of February 2020 was analyzed.The results show that the establishment of blocking high near Lake Baikal and the rapid southward of cold air after accumulation resulted in the cold wave weather accompanied by strong cooling,hale and rain(snow)weather in Jiujiang.Before the cold wave broke out,the ground warmed up significantly,which was also one of thermal conditions for this cold wave weather.Water vapor conditions were abundant at middle and low levels;at 850 hPa,temperature dropped by 12-14℃during February 14-15,and-4℃isotherm appeared in the southern part of central Jiangxi,which is a favorable condition for rain(snow)in most areas of Jiujiang. 展开更多
关键词 Cold wave weather process Jiujiang Numerical model forecast
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