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Three-phase Fluid Numerical Simulation and Water Modeling Experiment of Supersonic Oxygen Jet Impingement on Molten Bath in EAF 被引量:2
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作者 Shao-chun CHEN Rong ZHU +2 位作者 Jing-she LI Chun-lai HE Ming Lü 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research International》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第6期589-595,共7页
By means of the computational fluid dynamics software Fluent 6.3, a mathematical model of three-dimensional three-phase fluid flow field in the molten bath of electric arc furnace (EAF) with side accessorial oxygen ... By means of the computational fluid dynamics software Fluent 6.3, a mathematical model of three-dimensional three-phase fluid flow field in the molten bath of electric arc furnace (EAF) with side accessorial oxygen lances was developed to study the transient phenomena of oxygen jet impingement on the molten steel and the molten slag. The water modeling experiment was carried out to verify the simulation results. The impingement of the supersonic oxygen jet caused impact dent on the molten steel surface accordingly. The area of impact dent changed almost in linear relationship to flow rate of oxygen jet, which can be expressed by a deduced mathematical equation. And the relationship between the impact force of oxygen iet and the correspondingly formed apparent static pressure on molten bath was obtained, which was in linear relationship and a direct proportion, and can also be expressed by a deduced mathematical equation. 展开更多
关键词 electric arc furnace oxygen jet three-phase fluid numerical simulation water modeling experiment
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Evaluating the Amount of Erodability and Sedimentation by Comparing Sediment Weight Model and PSIAC Experimental Model (Case Study: Lali Water Catchment, Khuzestan, Iran) 被引量:2
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作者 Abdolreza Alijani Nader Kohansal Ghadimvand +2 位作者 Mohsen Aleali Mohammad Reza Espahbod Ali Meysami 《Open Journal of Geology》 2016年第8期692-702,共11页
The upstream water catchments are the main source providing sediments in rivers and sedimentary basins. The balance between the erosion phenomenon and the amount of sediment entering into the basin relies on the geome... The upstream water catchments are the main source providing sediments in rivers and sedimentary basins. The balance between the erosion phenomenon and the amount of sediment entering into the basin relies on the geometrical specifications and the morphology of the river along the water catchment direction and the amount and type of the sediments. The sedimentary feed of rivers and basins are changed for the sake of natural factors or human disturbances. The river and basin react against this change in that their shape, morphology, plan and profile get changed due to the increase or decrease of the input sediment into the basin. It is essential to know the sediment amount produced by erodability and sedimentation of upstream basins and effects of projects and also to evaluate the amount of sedimentary load in base studies, civil projects, optimizing rivers and dam construction studies specially calculating the amount of sediment amount entering into the dams’ reservoirs in order to take engineering decisions and related alternatives. Sediment Weight Model and PSIAC Experimental Model are recognized as two common methods calculating the amount of the produced sediment caused by erosion applied in this research. Holistically, these methods have been used and compared. Although the results are almost close to one another, more sediment load has been produced in PSIAC method. As more affective parameters are used to cause erosion and produce sediment in PSIAC experimental model, it is recommended to refer to the results of this method because they are closer to reality. 展开更多
关键词 Erodability SEDIMENTATION water Catchment Sedimentary Basin The Sediment Weight model PSIAC experimental model
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Water Modeling of Swirling Flow Tundish for Steel Continuous Casting 被引量:12
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作者 YUE Qiang ZOU Zong-shu +1 位作者 HOU Qin-fu CHEN Zhou 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research International》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第5期17-22,共6页
A conventional turbulence inhibitor is compared with a swirling chamber from the points of view of fluid flow and removal rate of inclusion in the tundish. Comparing the RTD curves, inclusion removals, and the streaml... A conventional turbulence inhibitor is compared with a swirling chamber from the points of view of fluid flow and removal rate of inclusion in the tundish. Comparing the RTD curves, inclusion removals, and the streamlines in water model experiments, it can be found that the tundish equipped with a swirling chamber has a great effect on improving the flow field, and the floatation rate of inclusion is higher than the tundish with a turbulence inhibitor. Because of the introduction of the swirling chamber, the flow field and inclusion removal in a two-strand swirling flow tundish are asymmetrical. Rotating the inlet direction of swirling chamber 60 degree is a good strategy to improve the asymmetrical flow field. 展开更多
关键词 water model experiment flow field swirling chamber inclusion removal continuous casting tundish
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Research on the optimization of tundish by water model
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作者 ZHANG Liqiang FENG Xinhua +2 位作者 LI Xiaoqiang WANG Jianjun ZHOU Li 《Baosteel Technical Research》 CAS 2009年第2期31-35,共5页
Based on the principle of similarity, water was used to simulate the flow of molten steel to analyze the flow field in a tundish. Several schemes of the tundish' s tracer shape were designed and corresponding water m... Based on the principle of similarity, water was used to simulate the flow of molten steel to analyze the flow field in a tundish. Several schemes of the tundish' s tracer shape were designed and corresponding water model experiments were conducted. During the experiments, a computer automatically collected data. The comparison of the residence time distribution( RTD ) curves drawn according to the computer-collected data optimized the scheme and photographs originated from the experiments with ink as its tracer. It indicates that the water model can optimize the flow field of the tundish. 展开更多
关键词 TUNDISH water model experiment TRACER flow field
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Water Modeling of Optimizing Tundish Flow Field 被引量:11
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作者 LIU Jin-gang YAN Hui-cheng +1 位作者 LIU Liu WANG Xin-hua 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research International》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2007年第3期13-19,共7页
In the water modeling experiments, three cases were considered, i. e, , a bare tundish, a tundish equipped with a turbulence inhibitor, and a rectangular tundish equipped with weirs (dams) and a turbulence inhibitor... In the water modeling experiments, three cases were considered, i. e, , a bare tundish, a tundish equipped with a turbulence inhibitor, and a rectangular tundish equipped with weirs (dams) and a turbulence inhibitor. Comparing the RTD curves, inclusion separation, and the result of the streamline experiment, it can be found that the tundish equipped with weirs (dams) and a turbulence inhibitor has a great effect on the flow field and the inclusion separation when compared with the sole use or no use of the turbulent inhibitor or weirs (dams). In addition, the enlargement of the distance between the weir and dam will result in a better effect when the tundish equipped with weirs (dam) and a turbulence inhibitor was used. 展开更多
关键词 TUNDISH flow field turbulence inhibitor WEIR DAM water modeling experiment
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Thermodynamic and Experimental Analysis of an Ammonia-Water Absorption Chiller 被引量:1
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作者 Dingfeng Kong Jianhua Liu +2 位作者 Liang Zhang Hang He Zhiyun Fang 《Energy and Power Engineering》 2010年第4期298-305,共8页
A single stage ammonia-water absorption chiller with complete condensation is designed, built and tested. The apparatus is designed for a cooling capacity of 2814 W, which is obtained using electric heater as heating ... A single stage ammonia-water absorption chiller with complete condensation is designed, built and tested. The apparatus is designed for a cooling capacity of 2814 W, which is obtained using electric heater as heating source. The thermodynamic models have been derived using the First and Second Laws. Calculated results are compared with experimental data. The results show that the cooling capacity of experimental apparatus is found between 1900 and 2200 W with the actual coefficient of performance (COP) between 0.32 and 0.36. The contribution of the components to internal entropy production is analyzed. It shows that the larger irreversibility is caused by spanning the largest temperature and dissipated thermal energy by heat transfer losses at the generator and evaporator. In the experimentation, the low pressure is lower than the designed value. This is a consequence of a large capacity in the falling film absorber which performs as expected. This decreases the evaporation pressure, and the evaporating temperature could be reduced to the designed value. 展开更多
关键词 ABSORPTION CHILLER AMMONIA-water THERMODYNAMIC modelING experimentAL Performance
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Assessment of water depth change patterns in 120° sharp bend using numerical model
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作者 Azadeh Gholami Hossein Bonakdari Ali Akbar Akhtari 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2016年第4期336-344,共9页
In this study,FLUENT software was employed to simulate the flow pattern and water depth changes in a 120° sharp bend at four discharge rates.To verify the numerical model,a 90° sharp bend was first modeled w... In this study,FLUENT software was employed to simulate the flow pattern and water depth changes in a 120° sharp bend at four discharge rates.To verify the numerical model,a 90° sharp bend was first modeled with a three-dimensional numerical model,and the results were compared with available experimental results.Based on the numerical model validation,a 120° bend was simulated.The results show that the rate of increase of the water depth at the cross-section located 40 cm before the bend,compared with the cross-sections located 40 cm and 80 cm after the bend,decreases with the increase of the normal water depth in the 120° curved channel.Moreover,with increasing normal water depth,the dimensionless water depth change decreases at all cross-sections.At the interior cross-sections of the bend,the transverse water depth slope of the inner half-width is always greater than that of the outer half-width of the channel.Hence,the water depth slope is nonlinear at each crosssection in sharp bends.Two equations reflecting the relationships between the maximum and minimum dimensionless water depths and the normal water depth throughout the channel were obtained. 展开更多
关键词 water DEPTH CHANGE 120sharp BEND experimental model Numerical model Discharge rate Normal water DEPTH FLUENT software
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Quantitative Analysis of the Removal Ratio of Fine Particles in Water by Gas Bubbling
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作者 Masafumi Miyazaki Hideaki Yamamura +1 位作者 Satoru Mineta Takehiko Toh 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research International》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2011年第S2期331-334,共4页
Removal of non-metallic inclusions in molten steel is important from the viewpoint of improvement of quality, property and yield of the products. As a removal method of inclusions from molten metal, gas bubble flotati... Removal of non-metallic inclusions in molten steel is important from the viewpoint of improvement of quality, property and yield of the products. As a removal method of inclusions from molten metal, gas bubble flotation adhering inclusions is well known. Gas bubbling is particularly effective for the removal of fine inclusions. Water model experiment is reported the quantitative analysis of the removal ratio of dispersed particles removed from water by gas bubbles. 展开更多
关键词 INCLUSION gas bubble water model experiment removal constant COLLISION ATTACHMENT
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无动力潜射导弹运载器出水弹道建模与实验验证 被引量:13
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作者 袁绪龙 张宇文 +1 位作者 殷崇一 刘乐华 《弹箭与制导学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2003年第S5期187-189,共3页
文中建立了无动力潜射导弹运载器出水弹道数学模型,并进行了海上实验验证,仿真计算结果与实验测试数据吻合很好。通过对12条次的实验数据与仿真预报数据的方差分析,表明所建数学模型具有很高的仿真精度,可应用于工程型号的出水弹道预报... 文中建立了无动力潜射导弹运载器出水弹道数学模型,并进行了海上实验验证,仿真计算结果与实验测试数据吻合很好。通过对12条次的实验数据与仿真预报数据的方差分析,表明所建数学模型具有很高的仿真精度,可应用于工程型号的出水弹道预报与仿真研究。 展开更多
关键词 出水弹道 数学模型 实验验证 仿真精度
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基于Hydrus-2D模型的热带沙漠气候土壤水运移研究
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作者 曹建猛 杨金鑫 《海河水利》 2025年第9期62-66,共5页
毛塔五星级宾馆项目地处毛里塔尼亚境内,位于非洲西北部,地处15°N~27°N,西濒大西洋,东部与撒哈拉沙漠接壤,属于典型的热带沙漠性气候。该区域全年高温少雨,蒸发量大,土壤抗旱能力差。项目主要工程为景观灌溉工程。为了缓解当... 毛塔五星级宾馆项目地处毛里塔尼亚境内,位于非洲西北部,地处15°N~27°N,西濒大西洋,东部与撒哈拉沙漠接壤,属于典型的热带沙漠性气候。该区域全年高温少雨,蒸发量大,土壤抗旱能力差。项目主要工程为景观灌溉工程。为了缓解当地需水量与水资源短缺之间的矛盾,提高景观苗木的水分利用效率,采用一种节水、节能的灌溉设备是关键。浅埋滴灌是近年来发明的绿色、高效的滴灌技术之一,能够减小地表无效蒸发,明显提高劳动效率,减少成本投入。项目通过设置浅埋滴灌试验,并基于Hydrus-2D模型研究不同滴灌带埋深对园林土壤水分二维分布特征的影响效应及影响机理,筛选出绿色、经济、省水、省肥、省力、省钱等优势突出的浅埋滴灌布置方式,为类似地质条件和气候条件的工程提供参考和借鉴。 展开更多
关键词 试验区 试验设计 Hydrus-2D模型建立 模型情景设置 水分运移规律
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水刀技术用于感染性创面清创效果的实验研究 被引量:9
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作者 杨嘉骏 姜楠 +1 位作者 马云飞 余斌 《中国矫形外科杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2017年第20期1886-1891,共6页
[目的]探讨水刀技术(Water Jet)用于感染性创面清创的效果。[方法]取72只Wistar大鼠随机分为2大组,无菌条件下切除各大鼠背部3 cm×3 cm的全层皮肤,分别将铜绿假单胞菌菌液及金黄色葡萄球菌菌液涂抹于创面制成感染模型,然后每组采... [目的]探讨水刀技术(Water Jet)用于感染性创面清创的效果。[方法]取72只Wistar大鼠随机分为2大组,无菌条件下切除各大鼠背部3 cm×3 cm的全层皮肤,分别将铜绿假单胞菌菌液及金黄色葡萄球菌菌液涂抹于创面制成感染模型,然后每组采用不同的清创方法 (水动力清创系统、传统清创方法 (手术刀+脉冲冲洗)、单纯脉冲冲洗)以及更换不同冲洗液(生理盐水、洗必泰)作为冲洗介质进行清创,取清创前后感染创面的局部肌肉组织作组织细菌定量及组织病理学分析。[结果]各清创组清创前的组织细菌量相近,差异均无统计学意义(P均>0.05)。分别对铜绿假单胞及金黄色葡萄球菌感染创面进行清创时,无论以生理盐水还是洗必泰作为冲洗介质,各清创方法清创后的创面组织细菌计数均较清创前下降,清创前后比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。而在清创后的组织细菌含量比较中,水刀清创组均较传统清创组及单纯脉冲冲洗组少,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。HE染色显示水刀清创后组织炎性细胞浸润最少,组织结构破坏最轻。[结论]对不同细菌形成的感染创面进行清创时,无论是以生理盐水为冲洗介质还是以洗必泰作为冲洗介质,水刀的清创效果均优于传统清创方法及单纯脉冲冲洗,水刀作为一种新型的清创方法能更好的清除感染,促进创面愈合。 展开更多
关键词 创面感染 动物模型 水刀 清创 实验研究
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库水浸泡后滑坡体中水分布的实验研究 被引量:3
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作者 刘曰武 宫欣 +1 位作者 张大为 陈慧新 《力学与实践》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第4期21-24,共4页
建立了室内模拟库水浸泡后滑坡体内水润湿的渗流实验装置,根据清江茅坪滑坡的地形、地貌以及岩土混合比例,填制了岩土体实验模型,模拟了水位在涨至模拟坡体凌空面一半高度和水位漫过凌空面达到第一平台高度时,坡体内的水分布情况。在水... 建立了室内模拟库水浸泡后滑坡体内水润湿的渗流实验装置,根据清江茅坪滑坡的地形、地貌以及岩土混合比例,填制了岩土体实验模型,模拟了水位在涨至模拟坡体凌空面一半高度和水位漫过凌空面达到第一平台高度时,坡体内的水分布情况。在水位降落实验过程中,岩土体部分失稳,证明了润湿滞后在降水期滑坡中起主要作用。 展开更多
关键词 水库 滑坡 水位分布 实验模型 渗流实验装置 润湿滞后
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波浪作用下砂质海床孔隙水压力的响应规律实验研究 被引量:14
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作者 钟佳玉 郑永来 倪寅 《岩土力学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第10期3188-3193,共6页
采用波流水槽模型试验的方法,研究了规则波和不规则波作用下砂质海床的孔隙水压力响应问题,其中主要考虑不同深度、波高及周期对孔隙水压力的影响,从而得出孔压变化规律。当周期和波高不变时,由波浪引起的孔隙水压力随水深的增加而逐渐... 采用波流水槽模型试验的方法,研究了规则波和不规则波作用下砂质海床的孔隙水压力响应问题,其中主要考虑不同深度、波高及周期对孔隙水压力的影响,从而得出孔压变化规律。当周期和波高不变时,由波浪引起的孔隙水压力随水深的增加而逐渐减小。同一水深和波高条件下,由波浪引起的孔隙水压力随周期变大而变大;当水深和周期固定时,由波浪引起的孔隙水压力随波高的增加而增加。 展开更多
关键词 波浪作用 孔隙水压力 土层液化 模型实验
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温度对土壤水分运动影响的研究进展 被引量:33
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作者 冯宝平 张展羽 +1 位作者 张建丰 汪志荣 《水科学进展》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第5期643-648,共6页
综述了温度对土壤水分运动的影响 ,温度影响的机理和考虑温度影响的土壤水分运动的数学模型 ,以及目前所用的实验研究方法 ,同时提出了本领域中存在的主要问题及研究展望。
关键词 温度 土壤 水分运动 数学模型 实验方法
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直膨式太阳能热泵热水器的仿真分析 被引量:5
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作者 孔祥强 张东 +1 位作者 李瑛 杨前明 《太阳能学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2010年第12期1574-1579,共6页
基于直膨式太阳能热泵热水器的热力循环,在建立太阳集热器/蒸发器和冷凝器的分布参数数学模型、压缩机和热力膨胀阀的集总参数数学模型的基础上,用能量平衡和质量平衡等约束条件将四大部件结合起来并进行求解。理论计算结果与若干典型... 基于直膨式太阳能热泵热水器的热力循环,在建立太阳集热器/蒸发器和冷凝器的分布参数数学模型、压缩机和热力膨胀阀的集总参数数学模型的基础上,用能量平衡和质量平衡等约束条件将四大部件结合起来并进行求解。理论计算结果与若干典型工况下的实验数据对比表明:集热器平均集热效率的平均相对误差为4.6%,热水得热量、压缩机功耗、COP等指标的平均相对误差都在1%以内;热水温度、COP和集热器集热效率的理论和实验值的瞬时变化规律吻合良好,从而验证了此仿真数学模型的准确性。 展开更多
关键词 直膨式 太阳能热泵热水器 数学模型 实验验证
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Flow Structure in RH Vacuum Degasser Using Rotating Electromagnetic Field 被引量:1
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作者 QI Feng-sheng YANG Liu +1 位作者 LIU Hong-Jun LI Bao-kuan 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research International》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第S2期888-891,共4页
An innovative steelmaking process is suggested using an electromagnetic driven swirling flow in the up-leg of an RH vacuum degasser.A physical and a mathematical model based on 300t RH vacuum degasser are developed to... An innovative steelmaking process is suggested using an electromagnetic driven swirling flow in the up-leg of an RH vacuum degasser.A physical and a mathematical model based on 300t RH vacuum degasser are developed to understand the effect of rotating electromagnetic field on the circulation flow rate and the two phases flow behavior of RH system.Both water model experiments and numerical simulation show the flow pattern and distribution of gas bubbles. The gas bubbles move towards the centre of up-leg under the effect of rotating electromagnetic field,and the accumulation of gas bubbles depends on the magnetic intensity.An optimization value of magnetic intensity was suggested in this paper. 展开更多
关键词 RH vacuum degasser two phases flow rotating electromagnetic field water model experiment
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竖直平板间液桥形状的观测与预测模型开发 被引量:6
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作者 庄大伟 杨艺菲 +1 位作者 胡海涛 丁国良 《化工学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第6期2224-2229,共6页
了解析湿工况下液桥对管翅式换热器性能的影响,需要对液桥形状进行实验研究并建立描述液桥形状的方法。通过搭建可视化实验台观察了液桥在竖直平板间的形状,并测量了液桥的接触线和接触角。实验研究了不同体积、不同平板间距、不同平板... 了解析湿工况下液桥对管翅式换热器性能的影响,需要对液桥形状进行实验研究并建立描述液桥形状的方法。通过搭建可视化实验台观察了液桥在竖直平板间的形状,并测量了液桥的接触线和接触角。实验研究了不同体积、不同平板间距、不同平板材料间形成的液桥,并通过实验数据开发了能够描述液桥形状的关联式,包括接触线伸长比和接触角分别与Bond数的关联式。还根据关联式建立了描述液桥形状的方法并将结果与实验数据进行对比,对比结果显示接触线的描述方法平均误差为3.4%,接触角的描述方法平均误差为7.9%。 展开更多
关键词 液桥形状 接触角 预测 模型 实验验证
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振动诱导微结构粗糙表面水滴Wenzel-Cassie状态转变特性 被引量:8
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作者 贾志海 雷威 +1 位作者 贺吉昌 蔡泰民 《化工学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第2期544-549,共6页
以聚二甲基硅氧烷(PDMS)基底采用光刻蚀技术制备了微方柱结构粗糙表面。采用高速摄影对液滴在垂直振动作用下的动态浸润状态进行了图像采集。通过对水滴振动过程中的动态浸润特性分析,研究了粗糙表面水滴的Wenzel-Cassie浸润状态转变特... 以聚二甲基硅氧烷(PDMS)基底采用光刻蚀技术制备了微方柱结构粗糙表面。采用高速摄影对液滴在垂直振动作用下的动态浸润状态进行了图像采集。通过对水滴振动过程中的动态浸润特性分析,研究了粗糙表面水滴的Wenzel-Cassie浸润状态转变特征。结果表明,对于一定尺寸的Wenzel状态水滴,只有当施加的振动能量超过某一阈值时,微方柱粗糙表面Wenzel状态液滴才可以发生向Cassie状态的完全转变,且存在发生Wenzel-Cassie浸润转变的阈值范围;此外,当外加振动频率和液滴固有频率一致时,即在共振频率时,液滴发生Wenzel-Cassie状态转变需要的能量最小。外加振动频率偏离液滴固有频率越远,发生Wenzel-Cassie状态转变需要的能量最大。基于表面化学和振动力学理论,建立了液滴发生Wenzel-Cassie转变时的物理模型。 展开更多
关键词 表面 振动 水滴 浸润转变 实验验证 模型
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孔隙水压力传感器的改装设计 被引量:4
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作者 钟佳玉 郑永来 《实验室研究与探索》 CAS 北大核心 2010年第10期45-48,共4页
以模型实验的方法,根据孔隙水压力计的工作原理,将微型土压力传感器改装成孔隙水压力传感器,用于模型实验中的实际监测,以验证改装后的孔压计的有效性,为实验提供可靠数据。将土压力传感器和由其改装的孔压计埋置于同一深度的砂土中,测... 以模型实验的方法,根据孔隙水压力计的工作原理,将微型土压力传感器改装成孔隙水压力传感器,用于模型实验中的实际监测,以验证改装后的孔压计的有效性,为实验提供可靠数据。将土压力传感器和由其改装的孔压计埋置于同一深度的砂土中,测得的土压力值略高于孔隙水压力值,这完全符合有效应力原理,定性地说明了改装后的孔压计有一定的工作效果;实验测得的孔压值与由Putnam得出的理论值基本吻合,其平均误差约为5%,最大误差不超过10%。由此定量地表明,改装后的孔隙水压力传感器是有效的,可以用于实际监测。 展开更多
关键词 模型试验 孔隙水压力 土压力
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煤矿井下水仓水位的灰色动态预测 被引量:7
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作者 刘春生 梁小明 万丰 《辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2010年第2期278-281,共4页
为实现煤矿井下可靠、节能自动排水的需要,根据不同季节和时段井下涌水量的差异引起水位不同变化,基于灰色理论的分析和几种灰色预测模型的比较,提出了煤矿井底水仓水位的灰色动态预测方法,采用新信息模型作为煤矿井底水仓水位动态预测... 为实现煤矿井下可靠、节能自动排水的需要,根据不同季节和时段井下涌水量的差异引起水位不同变化,基于灰色理论的分析和几种灰色预测模型的比较,提出了煤矿井底水仓水位的灰色动态预测方法,采用新信息模型作为煤矿井底水仓水位动态预测的渐进模型,并采用实测的实验数据加以验证,证明具有良好的符合度。为科学、合理的确定排水时段及水泵启停控制策略、数字化监控提供了依据。 展开更多
关键词 水仓水位 灰色模型 动态预测 试验分析
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