[Objective] The paper was to establish prediction model for Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbeh in Zhejiang Province of China. [ Method] Using the principles and methods of SAS software, and according t...[Objective] The paper was to establish prediction model for Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbeh in Zhejiang Province of China. [ Method] Using the principles and methods of SAS software, and according to the correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, we selected the relevant meteorological factors from April 1982 to March 2006 as the variables and the population density of D. punctatus from 1983 to 2006 as the dependent variables, to establish the prediction model between insect population density and meteorological factors for D. punctatas in coastal shelterbelt. [ Result] By fitting test, the his- torical compliance rate of the equation was above 85%. When the related data from 2007 to 2011 were used for prediction test, the occurrence condition had small relative error with prediction results except the years seriously affected by natural disasters. [ Conclusion] The paper provides certain reference for pest control against D. punctatus in coastal shelterbelt.展开更多
基金Supported by Key Agriculture Project in Major Scientific and Technological Special of Science and Technology Department of Zhejiang Province(2010C12029)
文摘[Objective] The paper was to establish prediction model for Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbeh in Zhejiang Province of China. [ Method] Using the principles and methods of SAS software, and according to the correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, we selected the relevant meteorological factors from April 1982 to March 2006 as the variables and the population density of D. punctatus from 1983 to 2006 as the dependent variables, to establish the prediction model between insect population density and meteorological factors for D. punctatas in coastal shelterbelt. [ Result] By fitting test, the his- torical compliance rate of the equation was above 85%. When the related data from 2007 to 2011 were used for prediction test, the occurrence condition had small relative error with prediction results except the years seriously affected by natural disasters. [ Conclusion] The paper provides certain reference for pest control against D. punctatus in coastal shelterbelt.
