The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genes...The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Nio had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts(WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Nio, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Nio events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Nio events, the 2015/2016 El Nio exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Nio to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Nio.展开更多
To understand the diversity of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)during recent decades,characteristics of westerly wind bursts(WWBs)during positive and nega...To understand the diversity of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)during recent decades,characteristics of westerly wind bursts(WWBs)during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed.It is shown that,during the ENSO developing period,the El Ni?o evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength,which contains most WWB characteristics,including the accumulated days,occurrence frequency,strength,and spatial range of WWBs.The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.展开更多
An Equatorial Oscillation Index(EOI) is defined, based on the zonal gradient of sea surface pressure between the western Pacific and eastern Pacific along the equator, to describe the distribution of wind and pressure...An Equatorial Oscillation Index(EOI) is defined, based on the zonal gradient of sea surface pressure between the western Pacific and eastern Pacific along the equator, to describe the distribution of wind and pressure within the equatorial Pacific. The EOI has a stronger correlation with the Ni?o3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA), as well as with westerly/easterly wind bursts(WWBs/EWBs), showing a superiority over the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI). In general, the EOI is consistent with the SOI, both of which reflect large-scale sea level pressure oscillations. However, when there are inconsistent SSTAs between the equator and subtropical regions, the SOI may contrast with the EOI due to the reverse changes in sea level pressure in the subtropical regions. As a result, the SOI fails to match the pattern of El Ni?o, while the EOI can still match it well. Hence, the EOI can better describe the variability of the Ni?o3.4 SSTA and WWBs/EWBs. The correlation between the SOI and Ni?o3.4 SSTA falls to its minimum in May, due to the large one-month changes of sea level pressure from April to May in the subtropical southern Pacific, which may be related to the spring predictability barrier(SPB). The newly defined EOI may be helpful for monitoring El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and predicting ENSO.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41690121, 41690124, 41690120, 41506025 & 41621064)the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI-04 & GASI-IPOVAI-06)the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. LQ15D060004)
文摘The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Nio had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts(WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Nio, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Nio events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Nio events, the 2015/2016 El Nio exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Nio to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Nio.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41776039)。
文摘To understand the diversity of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)during recent decades,characteristics of westerly wind bursts(WWBs)during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed.It is shown that,during the ENSO developing period,the El Ni?o evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength,which contains most WWB characteristics,including the accumulated days,occurrence frequency,strength,and spatial range of WWBs.The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41776039)。
文摘An Equatorial Oscillation Index(EOI) is defined, based on the zonal gradient of sea surface pressure between the western Pacific and eastern Pacific along the equator, to describe the distribution of wind and pressure within the equatorial Pacific. The EOI has a stronger correlation with the Ni?o3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA), as well as with westerly/easterly wind bursts(WWBs/EWBs), showing a superiority over the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI). In general, the EOI is consistent with the SOI, both of which reflect large-scale sea level pressure oscillations. However, when there are inconsistent SSTAs between the equator and subtropical regions, the SOI may contrast with the EOI due to the reverse changes in sea level pressure in the subtropical regions. As a result, the SOI fails to match the pattern of El Ni?o, while the EOI can still match it well. Hence, the EOI can better describe the variability of the Ni?o3.4 SSTA and WWBs/EWBs. The correlation between the SOI and Ni?o3.4 SSTA falls to its minimum in May, due to the large one-month changes of sea level pressure from April to May in the subtropical southern Pacific, which may be related to the spring predictability barrier(SPB). The newly defined EOI may be helpful for monitoring El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and predicting ENSO.
