复杂地形风电场流动具有强烈的非定常现象和多尺度特征,其准确模拟是风资源精细化评估的难点。为兼顾宏观中尺度大气环流和微观非定常流动细节,该文结合中尺度气象研究与预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式和微尺度计算流...复杂地形风电场流动具有强烈的非定常现象和多尺度特征,其准确模拟是风资源精细化评估的难点。为兼顾宏观中尺度大气环流和微观非定常流动细节,该文结合中尺度气象研究与预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式和微尺度计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)技术,构建一套WRF-CFD模式耦合的复杂地形风电场非定常仿真方法。以国际经典案例Askervein山和Bolund岛为验证对象,研究复杂地形流场中平均风速和湍流强度的分布特征,并简要分析复杂地形中风力机布置策略。结果表明,基于WRF-CFD模式的数值模拟结果与实验观测值有较好的一致性,且优于中尺度数值模拟结果,在选取的特征点位置,风速绝对误差均在2 m/s以内。结果可为风力机的设计、布局、载荷评估及风电场运行控制提供一定参考。展开更多
Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and widespread desert distribution,with its sustainable development severely constrained by dust events.An objective understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and dr...Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and widespread desert distribution,with its sustainable development severely constrained by dust events.An objective understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of dust weather is highly important in this area.Based on the meteorological observations from 2000 to 2020,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of dust weather in the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,and Tajikistan)via Theil-Sen trend analysis and Geodetector modeling method,quantitatively revealing the influence of environmental factors,such as temperature,precipitation,and vegetation,on the frequency of dust weather.The results showed that:(1)dust weather in Central Asia was mainly distributed in a large''dust belt''extending from west to east from northern part of the Caspian lowland desert,and concentrated in basins,plains,and other low-altitude areas.Strong dust weather mainly occurred in northern areas of the Aral Sea and southern edge of Central Asia,with a maximum annual frequency of 21.9%;(2)strong dust weather in Central Asia has fluctuated and slightly decreased since 2001.The highest frequency(1.1%)occurred in spring(from March to June);(3)from 2000 to 2020,changes such as spot shifting and shrinking occurred in the four main source areas(north of the Aral Sea,Kyzylkum Desert,Karakum Desert,and Garabogazköl Bay region),where sandstorms occurred in Central Asia,and northern Caspian lowland desert became the most important low-emission dust source in Central Asia;and(4)the combined effect of soil moisture and air temperature has the most significant influence on dust weather in Central Asia.This study provides a theoretical basis for sand prevention and sand control in Central Asia.In the future,Central Asia should focus on the rational utilization of land and water resources,and implement human interventions such as vegetation restoration and optimization of irrigation methods to curb further desertification in this area.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,i...Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,its TC forecasts still require enhancement.Prediction errors persist due to biases in the training data and smoothing effects in data-driven methods.To address this,we introduce CycloneBCNet,a deep-learning model designed to correct TianXing’s TC forecast biases by leveraging spatial and temporal data.CycloneBCNet utilizes the SimVP(simpler yet better video prediction)framework with spatial attention to highlight cyclone core regions in forecast fields.It also incorporates TC trend information(center position,maximum wind speed,and minimum sea level pressure)via an LSTM(long short-term memory)module.These TC vectors are derived from post-processed TianXing forecasts.By fusing features from forecast fields and TC vectors,CycloneBCNet corrects biases across multiple lead times.At a 96-h lead time,the track error reduces from 162.4 to 86.4 km,the wind speed error from 17.2 to 6.69 m s^(-1),and the pressure error from 22.2 to 9.36 hPa.Interpretability analysis shows that CycloneBCNet adjusts its attention across forecast lead times.Intensity corrections prioritize inner-core dynamics,particularly the eye and eyewall,while track corrections shift from lower-level variables and the cyclone’s core to broader environmental factors and mid-to upper-level features as the forecast duration increases.These findings demonstrate that CycloneBCNet effectively captures key TC dynamics consistent with meteorological principles,including the dominance of near-surface conditions for intensity and the increasing influence of steering currents on track prediction.展开更多
In real-world autonomous driving tests,unexpected events such as pedestrians or wild animals suddenly entering the driving path can occur.Conducting actual test drives under various weather conditions may also lead to...In real-world autonomous driving tests,unexpected events such as pedestrians or wild animals suddenly entering the driving path can occur.Conducting actual test drives under various weather conditions may also lead to dangerous situations.Furthermore,autonomous vehicles may operate abnormally in bad weather due to limitations of their sensors and GPS.Driving simulators,which replicate driving conditions nearly identical to those in the real world,can drastically reduce the time and cost required for market entry validation;consequently,they have become widely used.In this paper,we design a virtual driving test environment capable of collecting and verifying SiLS data under adverse weather conditions using multi-source images.The proposed method generates a virtual testing environment that incorporates various events,including weather,time of day,and moving objects,that cannot be easily verified in real-world autonomous driving tests.By setting up scenario-based virtual environment events,multi-source image analysis and verification using real-world DCUs(Data Concentrator Units)with V2X-Car edge cloud can effectively address risk factors that may arise in real-world situations.We tested and validated the proposed method with scenarios employing V2X communication and multi-source image analysis.展开更多
Accurate and rapid recognition of weathering degree(WD)and groundwater condition(GC)is essential for evaluating rock mass quality and conducting stability analyses in underground engineering.Conventional WD and GC rec...Accurate and rapid recognition of weathering degree(WD)and groundwater condition(GC)is essential for evaluating rock mass quality and conducting stability analyses in underground engineering.Conventional WD and GC recognition methods often rely on subjective evaluation by field experts,supplemented by field sampling and laboratory testing.These methods are frequently complex and timeconsuming,making it challenging to meet the rapidly evolving demands of underground engineering.Therefore,this study proposes a rock non-geometric parameter classification network(RNPC-net)to rapidly achieve the recognition and mapping ofWD and GC of tunnel faces.The hybrid feature extraction module(HFEM)in RNPC-net can fully extract,fuse,and utilize multi-scale features of images,enhancing the network's classification performance.Moreover,the designed adaptive weighting auxiliary classifier(AC)helps the network learn features more efficiently.Experimental results show that RNPC-net achieved classification accuracies of 0.8756 and 0.8710 for WD and GC,respectively,representing an improvement of approximately 2%e10%compared to other methods.Both quantitative and qualitative experiments confirm the effectiveness and superiority of RNPC-net.Furthermore,for WD and GC mapping,RNPC-net outperformed other methods by achieving the highest mean intersection over union(mIOU)across most tunnel faces.The mapping results closely align with measurements provided by field experts.The application of WD and GC mapping results to the rock mass rating(RMR)system achieved a transition from conventional qualitative to quantitative evaluation.This advancement enables more accurate and reliable rock mass quality evaluations,particularly under critical conditions of RMR.展开更多
This study traces the development of the Shanghai Typhoon Model(SHTM)from a traditional physics-based regional model toward a data-driven,machine-learning typhoon forecasting system.After upgrading its initial and bou...This study traces the development of the Shanghai Typhoon Model(SHTM)from a traditional physics-based regional model toward a data-driven,machine-learning typhoon forecasting system.After upgrading its initial and boundary conditions,SHTM now leverages large-scale constraints from machine-learning weather prediction(MLWP)models,resulting in an ML–physics hybrid framework.During Typhoon Danas(2025),the hybrid SHTM achieves substantially lower track errors than both the advanced ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System(IFS)and leading MLWP models such as PanGu and FuXi.Furthermore,the hybrid SHTM consistently maintains mean track errors below 200 km up to a forecast lead time of 108 hours,representing a significant advancement in forecast accuracy.In addition,this study highlights the technical roadmap for transitioning from a physics-based typhoon model to a fully data-driven ML typhoon forecast system.It also emphasizes that advances in the physical modeling framework provide a critical foundation for further improving the performance of future data-driven ML typhoon models.展开更多
作为天气系统的主要组成部分,三维云仿真在军事、航空等领域都起着重要作用.目前主流的边界体积层次结构(Bounding Volume Hierarchy,BVH)在处理形状不均匀且体积较大的云时存在渲染效率低下的问题,为此提出一种基于优化BVH算法的云产...作为天气系统的主要组成部分,三维云仿真在军事、航空等领域都起着重要作用.目前主流的边界体积层次结构(Bounding Volume Hierarchy,BVH)在处理形状不均匀且体积较大的云时存在渲染效率低下的问题,为此提出一种基于优化BVH算法的云产品渲染方法.将WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting,天气研究与预报)模型网格点中的数据作为云基元,利用Z-order Hilbert曲线对其进行空间排序,结合云基元密度优化BVH算法,提高计算效率.提出ONS(Overlapping Node Sets,重叠节点结构)降低数据存取耗时.优化BVH算法能够减少不必要的光线和三角形面之间的相交测试次数,并解决边界体无效重叠问题.仿真实验显示,SAH(Surface Area Heuristic,表面积启发式)成本较同类最优算法可提升15.6%,EPO(Effective Partial Overlap,有效重叠部分)可提升10%,构建时间减少100%以上,在任意云场景中优化BVH算法的计算效率较同类算法都有显著提高,表明其能实现WRF云产品的快速渲染.展开更多
为提升低空风切变预报精度,本文综合运用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fifth-generation reanalysis data,ERA5]和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Envi...为提升低空风切变预报精度,本文综合运用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fifth-generation reanalysis data,ERA5]和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)的FNL全球再分析资料(Final Operational Global Analysis)、先进星载热发射和反射辐射仪全球数字高程模型以及兰州中川机场的实况观测资料,采用中尺度数值天气预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)、WRF结合计算流体动力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)方法、长短期神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)方法,对2021年4月15-16日兰州中川机场的两次风切变过程进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)在小于1 km的网格中使用大涡模拟,WRF模式在单个站点风速模拟任务中表现更好,但在近地面水平风场风速模拟效果上,不如WRF模式结合计算流体力学模型方案;(2)对于飞机降落过程中遭遇的两次低空风切变的模拟,WRF-LES和WRF-CFD两种模式都可以模拟出第一次低空风切变,而第二次受传入模式的WRF风速数据值较小的影响,两种模式风速差都没有达到阈值,需要在后续工作中进一步验证;(3)低风速条件(6 m·s^(-1))下,基于LSTM的单变量风速预测模型平均绝对误差基本维持在0.59 m·s^(-1),能较好地把握不同地形与环流背景条件下风速变化的非线性关系,虽然受到WRF误差和观测要素不全的限制,多变量风速预测能在保证平均绝对百分比误差小于6.60%的情况下,以更高的计算效率和泛化能力实现风速预测。本文不仅验证了WRF-CFD和WRF-LES耦合方案在风场和低空风切变预报中的差异,还探讨了基于LSTM的风速预测的可行性和准确性,期望为提高风场模拟精度,缩短精细风场模拟时间提供新的视角和方法。展开更多
A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold （1DSC） cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting （WRF） model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale ...A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold （1DSC） cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting （WRF） model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor pro files extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities （including downdraft） derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system （WRF-1DSC） was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to repro duce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional short range forecasting system, This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.展开更多
Global WRF (GWRF) is an extension of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that was developed for global weather research and forecasting applications. GWRF is being expanded to simulate atmospher...Global WRF (GWRF) is an extension of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that was developed for global weather research and forecasting applications. GWRF is being expanded to simulate atmospheric chemistry and its interactions with meteorology on a global scale. In this work, the ability of GWRF to reproduce major boundary layer meteorological variables that affect the fate and transport of air pollutants is assessed using observations from surface networks and satellites. The model evaluation shows an overall good performance in simulating global shortwave and longwave radiation, temperature, and specific humidity, despite large biases at high latitudes and over-Arctic and Antarctic areas. Larger biases exist in wind speed and precipitation predictions. These results are generally consistent with the performance of most current general circulation models where accuracies are often limited by a coarse grid resolution and inadequacies in sub-filter-scale parameterizations and errors in the specification of external forcings. The sensitivity simulations show that a coarse grid resolution leads to worse predictions of surface temperature and precipitation. The combinations of schemes that include the Dudhia shortwave radiation scheme or the Purdue Lin microphysics module, or the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization lead to a worse performance for predictions of downward shortwave radiation flux, temperature, and specific humidity, as compared with those with respective alternative schemes. The physical option with the Purdue Lin microphysics module leads to a worse performance for precipitation predictions. The projected climate in 2050 indicates a warmer and drier climate, which may have important impacts on the fate and lifetime of air pollutants.展开更多
This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is...This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is determined during the 21 December 2011 flooding event. Ten sensitivity experiments have been conducted using Cumulus, Convective and Planetary boundary layer schemes to find the best combination and optimize the WRF model for the study area for heavy rainfall events. Model simulation results were verified against observed data using standard statistical tests. The model simulations show encouraging and better statistical results with the combination of Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme, Lin microphysics scheme and Asymmetric Convection Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary scheme than any other combinations of physical parameterization schemes over Dar es Salaam region.展开更多
The data assimilation technique, known as 3DVAR, of the WRF mesoscale modeling system has been used in order to perform the impact analysis of meteorological data assimilation in the weather forecasts over the Rio Gra...The data assimilation technique, known as 3DVAR, of the WRF mesoscale modeling system has been used in order to perform the impact analysis of meteorological data assimilation in the weather forecasts over the Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil. The consistency of the data assimilation has been analyzed by investigating and evaluating the model forecast results processed with and without data assimilations. Two different procedures of data assimilation have been conducted to perform the study. The forecasts of the accumulated rainfall model variable, spatially plotted over the model integration domains, have been compared and validated against the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite based data, as well as with the Canguçu city meteorological radar reflectivity data. The comparison has been made considering the total amount of the accumulated rainfall predicted by the model against the automatic weather station data and most of the conducted processing presented compatible results. It has also been observed that, the inclusion of assimilated data enabled an improvement in the intensity as well as in the location of the main convective cell. The radar reflectivity field showed a significant performance in all processed experiments with data assimilation. However, for some regions, more significant obtained results have been shown to be the case in which the spectral radiances were assimilated, as compared with the case in which the spectral radiances were not included. The evaluation of the vertical atmospheric profiles of temperature and dew point temperature showed only a small impact of data assimilation. However, both simulations coherently presented the two vertical profiles, when compared with the observed profiles. In short, the study shows that, although the forecasts presented some inconsistencies in the evaluated results, the 3DVAR assimilation improves significantly the forecasting of the Weather WRF model.展开更多
文摘复杂地形风电场流动具有强烈的非定常现象和多尺度特征,其准确模拟是风资源精细化评估的难点。为兼顾宏观中尺度大气环流和微观非定常流动细节,该文结合中尺度气象研究与预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式和微尺度计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)技术,构建一套WRF-CFD模式耦合的复杂地形风电场非定常仿真方法。以国际经典案例Askervein山和Bolund岛为验证对象,研究复杂地形流场中平均风速和湍流强度的分布特征,并简要分析复杂地形中风力机布置策略。结果表明,基于WRF-CFD模式的数值模拟结果与实验观测值有较好的一致性,且优于中尺度数值模拟结果,在选取的特征点位置,风速绝对误差均在2 m/s以内。结果可为风力机的设计、布局、载荷评估及风电场运行控制提供一定参考。
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42571311).
文摘Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and widespread desert distribution,with its sustainable development severely constrained by dust events.An objective understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of dust weather is highly important in this area.Based on the meteorological observations from 2000 to 2020,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of dust weather in the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,and Tajikistan)via Theil-Sen trend analysis and Geodetector modeling method,quantitatively revealing the influence of environmental factors,such as temperature,precipitation,and vegetation,on the frequency of dust weather.The results showed that:(1)dust weather in Central Asia was mainly distributed in a large''dust belt''extending from west to east from northern part of the Caspian lowland desert,and concentrated in basins,plains,and other low-altitude areas.Strong dust weather mainly occurred in northern areas of the Aral Sea and southern edge of Central Asia,with a maximum annual frequency of 21.9%;(2)strong dust weather in Central Asia has fluctuated and slightly decreased since 2001.The highest frequency(1.1%)occurred in spring(from March to June);(3)from 2000 to 2020,changes such as spot shifting and shrinking occurred in the four main source areas(north of the Aral Sea,Kyzylkum Desert,Karakum Desert,and Garabogazköl Bay region),where sandstorms occurred in Central Asia,and northern Caspian lowland desert became the most important low-emission dust source in Central Asia;and(4)the combined effect of soil moisture and air temperature has the most significant influence on dust weather in Central Asia.This study provides a theoretical basis for sand prevention and sand control in Central Asia.In the future,Central Asia should focus on the rational utilization of land and water resources,and implement human interventions such as vegetation restoration and optimization of irrigation methods to curb further desertification in this area.
基金supported by the Meteorological Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142211)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42075141,42341202 and 62088101)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2021SHZDZX0100).
文摘Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,its TC forecasts still require enhancement.Prediction errors persist due to biases in the training data and smoothing effects in data-driven methods.To address this,we introduce CycloneBCNet,a deep-learning model designed to correct TianXing’s TC forecast biases by leveraging spatial and temporal data.CycloneBCNet utilizes the SimVP(simpler yet better video prediction)framework with spatial attention to highlight cyclone core regions in forecast fields.It also incorporates TC trend information(center position,maximum wind speed,and minimum sea level pressure)via an LSTM(long short-term memory)module.These TC vectors are derived from post-processed TianXing forecasts.By fusing features from forecast fields and TC vectors,CycloneBCNet corrects biases across multiple lead times.At a 96-h lead time,the track error reduces from 162.4 to 86.4 km,the wind speed error from 17.2 to 6.69 m s^(-1),and the pressure error from 22.2 to 9.36 hPa.Interpretability analysis shows that CycloneBCNet adjusts its attention across forecast lead times.Intensity corrections prioritize inner-core dynamics,particularly the eye and eyewall,while track corrections shift from lower-level variables and the cyclone’s core to broader environmental factors and mid-to upper-level features as the forecast duration increases.These findings demonstrate that CycloneBCNet effectively captures key TC dynamics consistent with meteorological principles,including the dominance of near-surface conditions for intensity and the increasing influence of steering currents on track prediction.
基金supported by Institute of Information and Communications Technology Planning and Evaluation(IITP)grant funded by the Korean government(MSIT)(No.2019-0-01842,Artificial Intelligence Graduate School Program(GIST))supported by Korea Planning&Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology(KEIT)grant funded by the Ministry of Trade,Industry&Energy(MOTIE,Republic of Korea)(RS-2025-25448249+1 种基金Automotive Industry Technology Development(R&D)Program)supported by the Regional Innovation System&Education(RISE)programthrough the(Gwangju RISE Center),funded by the Ministry of Education(MOE)and the Gwangju Metropolitan City,Republic of Korea(2025-RISE-05-001).
文摘In real-world autonomous driving tests,unexpected events such as pedestrians or wild animals suddenly entering the driving path can occur.Conducting actual test drives under various weather conditions may also lead to dangerous situations.Furthermore,autonomous vehicles may operate abnormally in bad weather due to limitations of their sensors and GPS.Driving simulators,which replicate driving conditions nearly identical to those in the real world,can drastically reduce the time and cost required for market entry validation;consequently,they have become widely used.In this paper,we design a virtual driving test environment capable of collecting and verifying SiLS data under adverse weather conditions using multi-source images.The proposed method generates a virtual testing environment that incorporates various events,including weather,time of day,and moving objects,that cannot be easily verified in real-world autonomous driving tests.By setting up scenario-based virtual environment events,multi-source image analysis and verification using real-world DCUs(Data Concentrator Units)with V2X-Car edge cloud can effectively address risk factors that may arise in real-world situations.We tested and validated the proposed method with scenarios employing V2X communication and multi-source image analysis.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42077242 and 42171407)the Graduate Innovation Fund of Jilin University.
文摘Accurate and rapid recognition of weathering degree(WD)and groundwater condition(GC)is essential for evaluating rock mass quality and conducting stability analyses in underground engineering.Conventional WD and GC recognition methods often rely on subjective evaluation by field experts,supplemented by field sampling and laboratory testing.These methods are frequently complex and timeconsuming,making it challenging to meet the rapidly evolving demands of underground engineering.Therefore,this study proposes a rock non-geometric parameter classification network(RNPC-net)to rapidly achieve the recognition and mapping ofWD and GC of tunnel faces.The hybrid feature extraction module(HFEM)in RNPC-net can fully extract,fuse,and utilize multi-scale features of images,enhancing the network's classification performance.Moreover,the designed adaptive weighting auxiliary classifier(AC)helps the network learn features more efficiently.Experimental results show that RNPC-net achieved classification accuracies of 0.8756 and 0.8710 for WD and GC,respectively,representing an improvement of approximately 2%e10%compared to other methods.Both quantitative and qualitative experiments confirm the effectiveness and superiority of RNPC-net.Furthermore,for WD and GC mapping,RNPC-net outperformed other methods by achieving the highest mean intersection over union(mIOU)across most tunnel faces.The mapping results closely align with measurements provided by field experts.The application of WD and GC mapping results to the rock mass rating(RMR)system achieved a transition from conventional qualitative to quantitative evaluation.This advancement enables more accurate and reliable rock mass quality evaluations,particularly under critical conditions of RMR.
基金supported by the Special Project-Original Exploration(Grant No.42450163)the National Youth Science Foundation of China Project(Grant No.4240050560)the Research and Development of Key Technologies for Artificial Intelligence Regional Typhoon Forecasting Model project.
文摘This study traces the development of the Shanghai Typhoon Model(SHTM)from a traditional physics-based regional model toward a data-driven,machine-learning typhoon forecasting system.After upgrading its initial and boundary conditions,SHTM now leverages large-scale constraints from machine-learning weather prediction(MLWP)models,resulting in an ML–physics hybrid framework.During Typhoon Danas(2025),the hybrid SHTM achieves substantially lower track errors than both the advanced ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System(IFS)and leading MLWP models such as PanGu and FuXi.Furthermore,the hybrid SHTM consistently maintains mean track errors below 200 km up to a forecast lead time of 108 hours,representing a significant advancement in forecast accuracy.In addition,this study highlights the technical roadmap for transitioning from a physics-based typhoon model to a fully data-driven ML typhoon forecast system.It also emphasizes that advances in the physical modeling framework provide a critical foundation for further improving the performance of future data-driven ML typhoon models.
文摘作为天气系统的主要组成部分,三维云仿真在军事、航空等领域都起着重要作用.目前主流的边界体积层次结构(Bounding Volume Hierarchy,BVH)在处理形状不均匀且体积较大的云时存在渲染效率低下的问题,为此提出一种基于优化BVH算法的云产品渲染方法.将WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting,天气研究与预报)模型网格点中的数据作为云基元,利用Z-order Hilbert曲线对其进行空间排序,结合云基元密度优化BVH算法,提高计算效率.提出ONS(Overlapping Node Sets,重叠节点结构)降低数据存取耗时.优化BVH算法能够减少不必要的光线和三角形面之间的相交测试次数,并解决边界体无效重叠问题.仿真实验显示,SAH(Surface Area Heuristic,表面积启发式)成本较同类最优算法可提升15.6%,EPO(Effective Partial Overlap,有效重叠部分)可提升10%,构建时间减少100%以上,在任意云场景中优化BVH算法的计算效率较同类算法都有显著提高,表明其能实现WRF云产品的快速渲染.
文摘为提升低空风切变预报精度,本文综合运用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fifth-generation reanalysis data,ERA5]和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)的FNL全球再分析资料(Final Operational Global Analysis)、先进星载热发射和反射辐射仪全球数字高程模型以及兰州中川机场的实况观测资料,采用中尺度数值天气预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)、WRF结合计算流体动力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)方法、长短期神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)方法,对2021年4月15-16日兰州中川机场的两次风切变过程进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)在小于1 km的网格中使用大涡模拟,WRF模式在单个站点风速模拟任务中表现更好,但在近地面水平风场风速模拟效果上,不如WRF模式结合计算流体力学模型方案;(2)对于飞机降落过程中遭遇的两次低空风切变的模拟,WRF-LES和WRF-CFD两种模式都可以模拟出第一次低空风切变,而第二次受传入模式的WRF风速数据值较小的影响,两种模式风速差都没有达到阈值,需要在后续工作中进一步验证;(3)低风速条件(6 m·s^(-1))下,基于LSTM的单变量风速预测模型平均绝对误差基本维持在0.59 m·s^(-1),能较好地把握不同地形与环流背景条件下风速变化的非线性关系,虽然受到WRF误差和观测要素不全的限制,多变量风速预测能在保证平均绝对百分比误差小于6.60%的情况下,以更高的计算效率和泛化能力实现风速预测。本文不仅验证了WRF-CFD和WRF-LES耦合方案在风场和低空风切变预报中的差异,还探讨了基于LSTM的风速预测的可行性和准确性,期望为提高风场模拟精度,缩短精细风场模拟时间提供新的视角和方法。
基金jointly supported by the Main Direction Program of Knowledge Innovation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2EW203)the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430105)the National Department of Public Benefit Research Foundation(Grant No.GYHY201006031)
文摘A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold （1DSC） cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting （WRF） model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor pro files extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities （including downdraft） derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system （WRF-1DSC） was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to repro duce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional short range forecasting system, This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.
文摘Global WRF (GWRF) is an extension of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that was developed for global weather research and forecasting applications. GWRF is being expanded to simulate atmospheric chemistry and its interactions with meteorology on a global scale. In this work, the ability of GWRF to reproduce major boundary layer meteorological variables that affect the fate and transport of air pollutants is assessed using observations from surface networks and satellites. The model evaluation shows an overall good performance in simulating global shortwave and longwave radiation, temperature, and specific humidity, despite large biases at high latitudes and over-Arctic and Antarctic areas. Larger biases exist in wind speed and precipitation predictions. These results are generally consistent with the performance of most current general circulation models where accuracies are often limited by a coarse grid resolution and inadequacies in sub-filter-scale parameterizations and errors in the specification of external forcings. The sensitivity simulations show that a coarse grid resolution leads to worse predictions of surface temperature and precipitation. The combinations of schemes that include the Dudhia shortwave radiation scheme or the Purdue Lin microphysics module, or the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization lead to a worse performance for predictions of downward shortwave radiation flux, temperature, and specific humidity, as compared with those with respective alternative schemes. The physical option with the Purdue Lin microphysics module leads to a worse performance for precipitation predictions. The projected climate in 2050 indicates a warmer and drier climate, which may have important impacts on the fate and lifetime of air pollutants.
文摘This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is determined during the 21 December 2011 flooding event. Ten sensitivity experiments have been conducted using Cumulus, Convective and Planetary boundary layer schemes to find the best combination and optimize the WRF model for the study area for heavy rainfall events. Model simulation results were verified against observed data using standard statistical tests. The model simulations show encouraging and better statistical results with the combination of Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme, Lin microphysics scheme and Asymmetric Convection Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary scheme than any other combinations of physical parameterization schemes over Dar es Salaam region.
文摘The data assimilation technique, known as 3DVAR, of the WRF mesoscale modeling system has been used in order to perform the impact analysis of meteorological data assimilation in the weather forecasts over the Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil. The consistency of the data assimilation has been analyzed by investigating and evaluating the model forecast results processed with and without data assimilations. Two different procedures of data assimilation have been conducted to perform the study. The forecasts of the accumulated rainfall model variable, spatially plotted over the model integration domains, have been compared and validated against the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite based data, as well as with the Canguçu city meteorological radar reflectivity data. The comparison has been made considering the total amount of the accumulated rainfall predicted by the model against the automatic weather station data and most of the conducted processing presented compatible results. It has also been observed that, the inclusion of assimilated data enabled an improvement in the intensity as well as in the location of the main convective cell. The radar reflectivity field showed a significant performance in all processed experiments with data assimilation. However, for some regions, more significant obtained results have been shown to be the case in which the spectral radiances were assimilated, as compared with the case in which the spectral radiances were not included. The evaluation of the vertical atmospheric profiles of temperature and dew point temperature showed only a small impact of data assimilation. However, both simulations coherently presented the two vertical profiles, when compared with the observed profiles. In short, the study shows that, although the forecasts presented some inconsistencies in the evaluated results, the 3DVAR assimilation improves significantly the forecasting of the Weather WRF model.
