[Objective]The research aimed to study influence of the 850 hPa WPSH abnormality on rainfall in Jianghuai basin in early summer.[Method]Based on NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5° analysis data,by using composite anal...[Objective]The research aimed to study influence of the 850 hPa WPSH abnormality on rainfall in Jianghuai basin in early summer.[Method]Based on NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5° analysis data,by using composite analysis,correlation analysis,etc.,circulation and rainfall abnormalities were analyzed.Subtropical index related to geopotential height field,zonal wind field,precipitation rate,vertical velocity field and so on.Influence of the 850 hPa WPSH abnormality in early summer on rainfall in Jianghuai basin was discussed.[Result]850 hPa WPSH abnormality in early summer had important influence on rainfall in Jianghuai basin.When WPSH area was small in early summer,and ridge point was by east and north,there was no blocking high in Sea of Okhotsk area at 500 hPa height field,and pathway of the cold air at high latitude was by north.Low-pressure disturbance in plum rain frontal zone weakened,and East Asian summer monsoon circulation strengthened.Cold air in Jianghuai basin was weak,which caused less precipitation in Jianghuai basin.When WPSH area was big in early summer,and ridge point was by west and south,it was controlled by blocking high in Sea of Okhotsk area at 500 hPa height field.Low-pressure disturbance in plum rain frontal zone strengthened,and East Asian summer monsoon circulation weakened.Cold air in Jianghuai basin was strong,which caused more precipitation in Jianghuai basin.[Conclusion]The research played indicative role in precipitation abnormality in Jianghuai basin.展开更多
基于TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)资料中的中国气象局(CMA)、日本气象厅(JMA)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和英国气象局(UKMO)等5个中心的500hPa位势高度场数据,评估了各中心对西...基于TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)资料中的中国气象局(CMA)、日本气象厅(JMA)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和英国气象局(UKMO)等5个中心的500hPa位势高度场数据,评估了各中心对西太副高控制预报和集合预报的效果,并采用了多模式集成平均(EMN)、消除偏差集成平均(BREM)和滑动训练期超级集合(R_SUP)3种方法对各中心数据进行集成.评估方法包括Talagrand分布、相关系数、均方根误差、Brier技巧评分等.结果表明:各中心预报效果有明显差异,各模式对500hPa位势高度场控制预报中,UKMO预报效果最好,而各模式对500hPa位势高度场集合预报中,则是ECMWF预报效果最好.从均方根误差改进率来看,基于控制预报的BREM和R_SUP集成方法明显降低了对500hPa位势高度场预报的均方根误差,而EMN则无明显改进.基于集合预报的3种集成方法对500hPa位势高度场预报的改进效果不明显,综合评分略低于ECMWF单模式集合预报.展开更多
文摘[Objective]The research aimed to study influence of the 850 hPa WPSH abnormality on rainfall in Jianghuai basin in early summer.[Method]Based on NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5° analysis data,by using composite analysis,correlation analysis,etc.,circulation and rainfall abnormalities were analyzed.Subtropical index related to geopotential height field,zonal wind field,precipitation rate,vertical velocity field and so on.Influence of the 850 hPa WPSH abnormality in early summer on rainfall in Jianghuai basin was discussed.[Result]850 hPa WPSH abnormality in early summer had important influence on rainfall in Jianghuai basin.When WPSH area was small in early summer,and ridge point was by east and north,there was no blocking high in Sea of Okhotsk area at 500 hPa height field,and pathway of the cold air at high latitude was by north.Low-pressure disturbance in plum rain frontal zone weakened,and East Asian summer monsoon circulation strengthened.Cold air in Jianghuai basin was weak,which caused less precipitation in Jianghuai basin.When WPSH area was big in early summer,and ridge point was by west and south,it was controlled by blocking high in Sea of Okhotsk area at 500 hPa height field.Low-pressure disturbance in plum rain frontal zone strengthened,and East Asian summer monsoon circulation weakened.Cold air in Jianghuai basin was strong,which caused more precipitation in Jianghuai basin.[Conclusion]The research played indicative role in precipitation abnormality in Jianghuai basin.
文摘基于TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)资料中的中国气象局(CMA)、日本气象厅(JMA)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和英国气象局(UKMO)等5个中心的500hPa位势高度场数据,评估了各中心对西太副高控制预报和集合预报的效果,并采用了多模式集成平均(EMN)、消除偏差集成平均(BREM)和滑动训练期超级集合(R_SUP)3种方法对各中心数据进行集成.评估方法包括Talagrand分布、相关系数、均方根误差、Brier技巧评分等.结果表明:各中心预报效果有明显差异,各模式对500hPa位势高度场控制预报中,UKMO预报效果最好,而各模式对500hPa位势高度场集合预报中,则是ECMWF预报效果最好.从均方根误差改进率来看,基于控制预报的BREM和R_SUP集成方法明显降低了对500hPa位势高度场预报的均方根误差,而EMN则无明显改进.基于集合预报的3种集成方法对500hPa位势高度场预报的改进效果不明显,综合评分略低于ECMWF单模式集合预报.
