Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable opera...Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.展开更多
Cold pools and associated wind storms are frequent occurrences in Southwestern Nigeria, especially during the early monsoon phase. The associated surface wind gust frequently destroys properties resulting in economic ...Cold pools and associated wind storms are frequent occurrences in Southwestern Nigeria, especially during the early monsoon phase. The associated surface wind gust frequently destroys properties resulting in economic losses. Two case events were investigated in this study;one event occurred in May 2019 and the other occurred in March 2020, both in southwestern Nigeria. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Infrared brightness temperatures and CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) rainfall products were analysed alongside in-situ observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET). Other data sources analysed are the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) and the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Cold pools were identified in the impacted communities as indicated by surface characteristics investigated from the in-situ observations. There was a sudden change in wind direction, with a simultaneous drop in temperature accompanied by increasing wind speed. Pressure and humidity were observed to change in the same period. Thunderstorms were also present in the impacted communities, as observed by the in-situ observations, in both case events. The presence of lightning as observed by WWLLN agrees with the in-situ thunderstorms. The cloud characteristics showed the presence of cloud shields, by their brightness temperature, over the impacted communities during the period of the cold pools in both case events. The systems were raining at the time of the observations in both cases, consistent with the in-situ thunderstorm observations. The communities were heavily impacted with several properties destroyed in the events. These early monsoon seasonal windstorms require a forecasting tool for their prediction and this study presents an eye-opener for further investigation and innovative research to address the menace.展开更多
The study aimed to assess the response of ep- and hemiedaphic Collembola communities(activity, richness, community structure) to a disturbance, the subsequent management regime and to the season(summer, winter) in a H...The study aimed to assess the response of ep- and hemiedaphic Collembola communities(activity, richness, community structure) to a disturbance, the subsequent management regime and to the season(summer, winter) in a High Tatra Mountains spruce forest destroyed by a windstorm.Fire and clear-cut resulted in an initial increase in the activity of Collembola inhabiting open areas,opportunistic or generalist species, while forest specialists diminished in numbers or disappeared.Our results indicated that treatment with nonextracted fallen trees(NEX) provided a better chance for forest species to survive compared with their survival in open habitats of extracted(EXT) and wildfire(FIR) treatments. Great species' potential of NEX treatment was indicated by Chao2 estimator and activity/species rarefaction curves. Communities of NEX treatment were more similar to the reference(REF) treatment, documented by ordination and cluster analyses. Thus, leaving fallen timber after a windthrow to natural process of succession is suitable for survival of forest species and maintenance of diversity in forests restoration than timber extraction.Community structure in wildfire(FIR) stands was the most dissimilar to the other treatments. Most of the species trapped in this treatment belonged to hemiedaphic life forms, while the activity of larger epedaphic species diminished. In contrast, the highest number of trapped Collembola in EXT treatment was connected with the larger-bodied epigeic species with fast dispersal ability. The trapping period affected both the number of individuals and species richness;Collembola activity and species diversity in the individual treatments were lower in winter compared with the summer period. Several species increased activity during the winter period, namely Folsomia penicula, Friesea mirabilis, F. truncata, Hypogastrura socialis and Protaphorura aurantiaca.展开更多
Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work...Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.展开更多
The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fis...The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fisheries in spring season.After episodic wind-driven events during the spring of 2017,horizontal and vertical profiles of physical chemical biological factors were investigated at 29 stations located in the Ulleung Basin area.In addition,growth responses of phytoplankton communities to nutrient additions were evaluated by bioassay experiments to understand the fluctuation of phytoplankton biomass.Because of strong northwestern wind,phytoplankton biomass was scattered and upwelling phenomenon might be suppressed in this season.The phytoplankton abundances in the coastal stations were significantly higher than offshore and island stations.In contrast,the nutrient and chlorophyll a(Chl a)concentrations and the phytoplankton biomass were quite low in all locations.Bacillariophyceae was dominated group(>75.1%for coastal,40.0%for offshore and 43.6%for island stations).In the algal bioassays,the phytoplankton production was stimulated by N availability.The in vivo Chl a values in the+N and+NP treatments were significantly higher than the values in the control and the+P treatments.Based on the field survey,the higher nutrients in coastal waters affected the growth of diatom assemblages,however,little prosperity of phytoplankton was observed in the offshore waters despite the injection of sufficient nutrients in bioassay experiments.The growth of phytoplankton depended on the initial cell density.All of results indicated that a dominant northwestern wind led to a limited nutrients condition at euphotic layers,and the low level of biomass supply from the coasts resulted in low primary production.Both supplying nutrients and introducing phytoplankton through the currents are critical to maintain the high productivity in the Ulleung Basin area of the East Sea.展开更多
Derechos occur frequently in Europe and the United States, but reports of derechos in China are scarce. In this paper, radar, satellite, and surface observation data are used to analyze a derecho event in South China ...Derechos occur frequently in Europe and the United States, but reports of derechos in China are scarce. In this paper, radar, satellite, and surface observation data are used to analyze a derecho event in South China on 17 April 2011. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system formed in an environment with medium convective available energy~ strong vertical wind shear, and a dry layer in the middle troposphere, and progressed southward in tandem with a front and a surface wind convergence line. The windstorm can be divided into two stages according to differences in the characteristics of the radar echo and the causes of the gale. One stage was a supercell stage, in which the sinking rear inflow of a high-precipitation supercell with a bow-shaped radar echo induced a Fujita F0 class gale. The other stage was a non-supercell stage （the echo was sequentially kidney-shaped, foot-shaped, and an ordinary single cell）, in which downbursts induced a gale in Fujita F1 class. This derecho event had many similarities with derechos observed in western countries. For example, the windstorm was perpendicular to the mean flow, the gale was located in the bulging portion of the bow echo, and the derecho moved southward along with the surface front. Some differences were observed as well. The synoptic-scale forcing was weak in the absence of an advancing high-amplitude midlevel trough and an accompanying strong surface cyclone; however, the vertical wind shear was very strong, a characteristic typical of derechos associated with strong synoptic-scale forcing. Extremely high values of convective availa- ble potential energy and downdraft convective available potential energy have previously been considered necessary to the formation of weak-forcing archetype and hybrid derechos; however, these values were much less than 2000 J during this derecho event.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China(51936003)。
文摘Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.
文摘Cold pools and associated wind storms are frequent occurrences in Southwestern Nigeria, especially during the early monsoon phase. The associated surface wind gust frequently destroys properties resulting in economic losses. Two case events were investigated in this study;one event occurred in May 2019 and the other occurred in March 2020, both in southwestern Nigeria. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Infrared brightness temperatures and CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) rainfall products were analysed alongside in-situ observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET). Other data sources analysed are the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) and the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Cold pools were identified in the impacted communities as indicated by surface characteristics investigated from the in-situ observations. There was a sudden change in wind direction, with a simultaneous drop in temperature accompanied by increasing wind speed. Pressure and humidity were observed to change in the same period. Thunderstorms were also present in the impacted communities, as observed by the in-situ observations, in both case events. The presence of lightning as observed by WWLLN agrees with the in-situ thunderstorms. The cloud characteristics showed the presence of cloud shields, by their brightness temperature, over the impacted communities during the period of the cold pools in both case events. The systems were raining at the time of the observations in both cases, consistent with the in-situ thunderstorm observations. The communities were heavily impacted with several properties destroyed in the events. These early monsoon seasonal windstorms require a forecasting tool for their prediction and this study presents an eye-opener for further investigation and innovative research to address the menace.
基金supported from the Slovak Scientific Grant Agency VEGA project no. 1/0282/ 11VVGS grant (Faculty of Science, P.J. Safárik University, Kosice) no. 9/2011
文摘The study aimed to assess the response of ep- and hemiedaphic Collembola communities(activity, richness, community structure) to a disturbance, the subsequent management regime and to the season(summer, winter) in a High Tatra Mountains spruce forest destroyed by a windstorm.Fire and clear-cut resulted in an initial increase in the activity of Collembola inhabiting open areas,opportunistic or generalist species, while forest specialists diminished in numbers or disappeared.Our results indicated that treatment with nonextracted fallen trees(NEX) provided a better chance for forest species to survive compared with their survival in open habitats of extracted(EXT) and wildfire(FIR) treatments. Great species' potential of NEX treatment was indicated by Chao2 estimator and activity/species rarefaction curves. Communities of NEX treatment were more similar to the reference(REF) treatment, documented by ordination and cluster analyses. Thus, leaving fallen timber after a windthrow to natural process of succession is suitable for survival of forest species and maintenance of diversity in forests restoration than timber extraction.Community structure in wildfire(FIR) stands was the most dissimilar to the other treatments. Most of the species trapped in this treatment belonged to hemiedaphic life forms, while the activity of larger epedaphic species diminished. In contrast, the highest number of trapped Collembola in EXT treatment was connected with the larger-bodied epigeic species with fast dispersal ability. The trapping period affected both the number of individuals and species richness;Collembola activity and species diversity in the individual treatments were lower in winter compared with the summer period. Several species increased activity during the winter period, namely Folsomia penicula, Friesea mirabilis, F. truncata, Hypogastrura socialis and Protaphorura aurantiaca.
文摘Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.
基金The Basic Core Technology Development Program for the Oceans and the Polar Regions of the National Research Foundation(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Science,ICT&Future Planning under contract No.NRF-2016 M1A5A1027456the project of the Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries under contract No.PG51010
文摘The East Sea(Sea of Japan)is a marginal,semi-closed sea in the northwestern Pacific.The Ulleung Basin area,which is located near the subpolar front of the East Sea,is known to have high primary production and good fisheries in spring season.After episodic wind-driven events during the spring of 2017,horizontal and vertical profiles of physical chemical biological factors were investigated at 29 stations located in the Ulleung Basin area.In addition,growth responses of phytoplankton communities to nutrient additions were evaluated by bioassay experiments to understand the fluctuation of phytoplankton biomass.Because of strong northwestern wind,phytoplankton biomass was scattered and upwelling phenomenon might be suppressed in this season.The phytoplankton abundances in the coastal stations were significantly higher than offshore and island stations.In contrast,the nutrient and chlorophyll a(Chl a)concentrations and the phytoplankton biomass were quite low in all locations.Bacillariophyceae was dominated group(>75.1%for coastal,40.0%for offshore and 43.6%for island stations).In the algal bioassays,the phytoplankton production was stimulated by N availability.The in vivo Chl a values in the+N and+NP treatments were significantly higher than the values in the control and the+P treatments.Based on the field survey,the higher nutrients in coastal waters affected the growth of diatom assemblages,however,little prosperity of phytoplankton was observed in the offshore waters despite the injection of sufficient nutrients in bioassay experiments.The growth of phytoplankton depended on the initial cell density.All of results indicated that a dominant northwestern wind led to a limited nutrients condition at euphotic layers,and the low level of biomass supply from the coasts resulted in low primary production.Both supplying nutrients and introducing phytoplankton through the currents are critical to maintain the high productivity in the Ulleung Basin area of the East Sea.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41040037 and 41205028)Basic Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
文摘Derechos occur frequently in Europe and the United States, but reports of derechos in China are scarce. In this paper, radar, satellite, and surface observation data are used to analyze a derecho event in South China on 17 April 2011. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system formed in an environment with medium convective available energy~ strong vertical wind shear, and a dry layer in the middle troposphere, and progressed southward in tandem with a front and a surface wind convergence line. The windstorm can be divided into two stages according to differences in the characteristics of the radar echo and the causes of the gale. One stage was a supercell stage, in which the sinking rear inflow of a high-precipitation supercell with a bow-shaped radar echo induced a Fujita F0 class gale. The other stage was a non-supercell stage （the echo was sequentially kidney-shaped, foot-shaped, and an ordinary single cell）, in which downbursts induced a gale in Fujita F1 class. This derecho event had many similarities with derechos observed in western countries. For example, the windstorm was perpendicular to the mean flow, the gale was located in the bulging portion of the bow echo, and the derecho moved southward along with the surface front. Some differences were observed as well. The synoptic-scale forcing was weak in the absence of an advancing high-amplitude midlevel trough and an accompanying strong surface cyclone; however, the vertical wind shear was very strong, a characteristic typical of derechos associated with strong synoptic-scale forcing. Extremely high values of convective availa- ble potential energy and downdraft convective available potential energy have previously been considered necessary to the formation of weak-forcing archetype and hybrid derechos; however, these values were much less than 2000 J during this derecho event.
