Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devi...Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
Based on an available parking space occupancy （APSO） survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-secti...Based on an available parking space occupancy （APSO） survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.展开更多
There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and ...There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.展开更多
A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of avail...A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.展开更多
To explore new operational forecasting methods of waves,a forecasting model for wave heights at three stations in the Bohai Sea has been developed.This model is based on long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network with...To explore new operational forecasting methods of waves,a forecasting model for wave heights at three stations in the Bohai Sea has been developed.This model is based on long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network with sea surface wind and wave heights as training samples.The prediction performance of the model is evaluated,and the error analysis shows that when using the same set of numerically predicted sea surface wind as input,the prediction error produced by the proposed LSTM model at Sta.N01 is 20%,18%and 23%lower than the conventional numerical wave models in terms of the total root mean square error(RMSE),scatter index(SI)and mean absolute error(MAE),respectively.Particularly,for significant wave height in the range of 3–5 m,the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model is improved the most remarkably,with RMSE,SI and MAE all decreasing by 24%.It is also evident that the numbers of hidden neurons,the numbers of buoys used and the time length of training samples all have impact on the prediction accuracy.However,the prediction does not necessary improve with the increase of number of hidden neurons or number of buoys used.The experiment trained by data with the longest time length is found to perform the best overall compared to other experiments with a shorter time length for training.Overall,long short-term memory neural network was proved to be a very promising method for future development and applications in wave forecasting.展开更多
Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented ...Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid （China） based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.展开更多
Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural ne...Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.展开更多
Rainstorms are one of the most important types of natural disaster in China.In order to enhance the ability to forecast rainstorms in the short term,this paper explores how to combine a back-propagation neural network...Rainstorms are one of the most important types of natural disaster in China.In order to enhance the ability to forecast rainstorms in the short term,this paper explores how to combine a back-propagation neural network(BPNN)with synoptic diagnosis for predicting rainstorms,and analyzes the hit rates of rainstorms for the above two methods using the county of Tianquan as a case study.Results showed that the traditional synoptic diagnosis method still has an important referential meaning for most rainstorm types through synoptic typing and statistics of physical quantities based on historical cases,and the threat score(TS)of rainstorms was more than 0.75.However,the accuracy for two rainstorm types influenced by low-level easterly inverted troughs was less than 40%.The BPNN method efficiently forecasted these two rainstorm types;the TS and equitable threat score(ETS)of rainstorms were 0.80 and 0.79,respectively.The TS and ETS of the hybrid model that combined the BPNN and synoptic diagnosis methods exceeded the forecast score of multi-numerical simulations over the Sichuan Basin without exception.This kind of hybrid model enhanced the forecasting accuracy of rainstorms.The findings of this study provide certain reference value for the future development of refined forecast models with local features.展开更多
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactio...Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.展开更多
The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic ...The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.展开更多
Short-term forecast of urban traffic flow is very important to intelligent transportation. Although the conventional methods have some advantages, to some extent, in improving the traffic forecast's precision, it ...Short-term forecast of urban traffic flow is very important to intelligent transportation. Although the conventional methods have some advantages, to some extent, in improving the traffic forecast's precision, it is still hard to achieve high accuracy. In this paper, we propose a short-term traffic flow forecasting method, which is based on the hybrid particle swarm optimization-neural network(HPSO-NN) with error compensation mechanism.In HPSO-NN, the hybrid PSO algorithm is employed to train the structures and parameters of the feed-forward advanced neural network, while the error compensation mechanism is employed to improve the accuracy. HPSONN is used to forecast the vehicle velocity in Shanghai North-South Viaduct. Experimental results show that the HPSO-NN, compared with the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) model, can forecast traffic flow with a higher accuracy. What's more, we have also found that HPSO-NN with error compensation mechanism has better performance than that of HPSO-NN alone.展开更多
Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a s...Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.展开更多
Short-term forecasts of wave energy play a key role in the daily operation,maintenance planning,and electrical grid operation of power farms.In this study,we propose a short-term wave energy forecast scheme and use th...Short-term forecasts of wave energy play a key role in the daily operation,maintenance planning,and electrical grid operation of power farms.In this study,we propose a short-term wave energy forecast scheme and use the North Indian Ocean(NIO)as a case study.Compared with the traditional forecast scheme,our proposed scheme considers more forecast elements.In addition to the traditional short-term forecast factors related to wave energy(wave power,significant wave height(SWH),wave period),our scheme emphasizes the forecast of a series of key factors that are closely related to the effectiveness of the energy output,capture efficiency,and conversion efficiency.These factors include the available rate,total storage,effective storage,co-occurrence of wave power-wave direction,co-occurrence of the SWH-wave period,and the wave energy at key points.In the regional nesting of nu-merical simulations of wave energy in the NIO,the selection of the southern boundary is found to have a significant impact on the simulation precision,especially during periods of strong swell processes of the South Indian Ocean(SIO)westerly.During tropical cyclone‘VARDAH’in the NIO,as compared with the simulation precision obtained with no expansion of the southern boundary(scheme-1),when the southern boundary is extended to the tropical SIO(scheme-2),the improvement in simulation precision is significant,with an obvious increase in the correlation coefficient and decrease in error.In addition,the improvement is much more significant when the southern boundary extends to the SIO westerly(scheme-3).In the case of strong swell processes generated by the SIO westerly,the improvement obtained by scheme-3 is even more significant.展开更多
Load forecasting can increase the efficiency of modern energy systems with built-in measuring systerms by providing a more accurate peak power shaving performance and thus more reliable control.An analysis of an integ...Load forecasting can increase the efficiency of modern energy systems with built-in measuring systerms by providing a more accurate peak power shaving performance and thus more reliable control.An analysis of an integrated CO2 heat pump and chiller system with a hot water storage system is presented in this paper.Drastic power fluctuations,which can be reduced with load forecasting,are found in historical operation records.A model that aims to forecast the ventilation system heating demand is thus established on the basis of a long short-term memory(LSTM)network.The model can successfully forecast the one hour ahead power using records of the past 48h of the system operation data and the ambient temperature.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the forecast results of the LSTM-based model is 10.70%,which is respectively 2.2%and 7.25%better than the MAPEs of the forecast results of the support vector regression based and persistence method based models.展开更多
The inherent black-box nature of machine learning(ML) models limits their interpretability and broader application in heavy precipitation forecasting. Evaluating the reliability of these models involves analyzing the ...The inherent black-box nature of machine learning(ML) models limits their interpretability and broader application in heavy precipitation forecasting. Evaluating the reliability of these models involves analyzing the link between predictions and predictors. In this study, ERA5 reanalysis data, CERES satellite observations, and ground-based meteorological observatories were utilized to compile more comprehensive multi-type predictors for developing a Bayesian optimized XGBoost model for the nowcasting of heavy precipitation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during the pre-summer rainy season. A comparison of model performance with different combinations of input features and classical machine learning algorithms demonstrated that the Bayesian optimized XGBoost model achieved the best overall performance, with an average Critical Success Index of 68.30%. Permutation Importance(PI) and shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP) methods were utilized to interpret feature effects in heavy precipitation forecasting. The results indicated that precipitable water vapor(PWV), cloud, relative humidity, and seasonal and diurnal variables had more significant effects on the model output as individual features. Furthermore, the collective influence of derivatives from PWV and meteorological parameters(e.g., temperature, relative humidity, pressure and dew point temperature)showed a significant enhancement over their individual impacts, indicating synergistic interactions among these predictors.Applying explainable artificial intelligence(XAI) to ML models helps understand how models utilize features for forecasting, enhances the reliability of forecasts, and guides feature selection and the mitigation of overfitting phenomena.展开更多
Algal blooms pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and human health.Accurate forecasting of chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is critical for effective control of harmful algal blooms(HABs).This study proposes...Algal blooms pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and human health.Accurate forecasting of chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is critical for effective control of harmful algal blooms(HABs).This study proposes a novel approach for enhancing Chl-a concentration forecasting by integrating the AdaBoost algorithm with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks.We developed a strong forecasting model by combining adaptive boosting(AdaBoost)with LSTM models in Xiamen Bay,China.This model achieved higher correlation coefficients and lower root mean square errors than individual weak models.The AdaBoost-optimized model increased the frequency of low absolute errors while decreasing the occurrence of high absolute errors,which indicated improved overall prediction accuracy and reliability.Moreover,the model effectively reduced performance fluctuations,which are frequent in deep learning models.The application of a non-uniform initial weighting scheme within the AdaBoost framework further enhanced model performance for high Chl-a concentration values,which are critical for detecting HABs.The optimization effect of AdaBoost was validated by applying it to data collected from the Ningde area.A robust framework is provided in this study to improve Chl-a concentration predictions and offer valuable insights for managing coastal ecosystems facing the challenges of algal blooms.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of oil production is essential for optimizing resource management and minimizing operational risks in the energy sector. Traditional time-series forecasting techniques, despite their widespread ap...Accurate forecasting of oil production is essential for optimizing resource management and minimizing operational risks in the energy sector. Traditional time-series forecasting techniques, despite their widespread application, often encounter difficulties in handling the complexities of oil production data, which is characterized by non-linear patterns, skewed distributions, and the presence of outliers. To overcome these limitations, deep learning methods have emerged as more robust alternatives. However, while deep neural networks offer improved accuracy, they demand substantial amounts of data for effective training. Conversely, shallow networks with fewer layers lack the capacity to model complex data distributions adequately. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel hybrid model called Transfer LSTM to GRU (TLTG), which combines the strengths of deep and shallow networks using transfer learning. The TLTG model integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to enhance predictive accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Gaussian transformation is applied to the input data to reduce outliers and skewness, creating a more normal-like distribution. The proposed approach is validated on datasets from various wells in the Tahe oil field, China. Experimental results highlight the superior performance of the TLTG model, achieving 100% accuracy and faster prediction times (200 s) compared to eight other approaches, demonstrating its effectiveness and efficiency.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of blast furnace gas(BFG)production is an essential prerequisite for reasonable energy scheduling and management to reduce carbon emissions.Coupling forecasting between BFG generation and consumpt...Accurate forecasting of blast furnace gas(BFG)production is an essential prerequisite for reasonable energy scheduling and management to reduce carbon emissions.Coupling forecasting between BFG generation and consumption dynamics was taken as the research object.A multi-task learning(MTL)method for BFG forecasting was proposed,which integrated a coupling correlation coefficient(CCC)and an inverted transformer structure.The CCC method could enhance key information extraction by establishing relationships between multiple prediction targets and relevant factors,while MTL effectively captured the inherent correlations between BFG generation and consumption.Finally,a real-world case study was conducted to compare the proposed model with four benchmark models.Results indicated significant reductions in average mean absolute percentage error by 33.37%,achieving 1.92%,with a computational time of 76 s.The sensitivity analysis of hyperparameters such as learning rate,batch size,and units of the long short-term memory layer highlights the importance of hyperparameter tuning.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of electricity spot prices is crucial for market participants in formulating bidding strategies.However,the extreme volatility of electricity spot prices,influenced by various factors,poses signif...Accurate forecasting of electricity spot prices is crucial for market participants in formulating bidding strategies.However,the extreme volatility of electricity spot prices,influenced by various factors,poses significant challenges for forecasting.To address the data uncertainty of electricity prices and effectively mitigate gradient issues,overfitting,and computational challenges associated with using a single model during forecasting,this paper proposes a framework for forecasting spot market electricity prices by integrating wavelet packet decomposition(WPD)with a hybrid deep neural network.By ensuring accurate data decomposition,the WPD algorithm aids in detecting fluctuating patterns and isolating random noise.The hybrid model integrates temporal convolutional networks(TCN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)networks to enhance feature extraction and improve forecasting performance.Compared to other techniques,it significantly reduces average errors,decreasing mean absolute error(MAE)by 27.3%,root mean square error(RMSE)by 66.9%,and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)by 22.8%.This framework effectively captures the intricate fluctuations present in the time series,resulting in more accurate and reliable predictions.展开更多
An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering met...An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.展开更多
文摘Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No50738001)the National Basic Research Program of China (973Program) (No2006CB705501)
文摘Based on an available parking space occupancy （APSO） survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.
文摘There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.
基金Project(51561135003)supported by the International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(51338003)supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2016YFC1402103
文摘To explore new operational forecasting methods of waves,a forecasting model for wave heights at three stations in the Bohai Sea has been developed.This model is based on long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network with sea surface wind and wave heights as training samples.The prediction performance of the model is evaluated,and the error analysis shows that when using the same set of numerically predicted sea surface wind as input,the prediction error produced by the proposed LSTM model at Sta.N01 is 20%,18%and 23%lower than the conventional numerical wave models in terms of the total root mean square error(RMSE),scatter index(SI)and mean absolute error(MAE),respectively.Particularly,for significant wave height in the range of 3–5 m,the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model is improved the most remarkably,with RMSE,SI and MAE all decreasing by 24%.It is also evident that the numbers of hidden neurons,the numbers of buoys used and the time length of training samples all have impact on the prediction accuracy.However,the prediction does not necessary improve with the increase of number of hidden neurons or number of buoys used.The experiment trained by data with the longest time length is found to perform the best overall compared to other experiments with a shorter time length for training.Overall,long short-term memory neural network was proved to be a very promising method for future development and applications in wave forecasting.
文摘Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid （China） based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.
基金supported by the Major Project of Basic and Applied Research in Guangdong Universities (2017WZDXM012)。
文摘Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters [grant number 2018YFC1506006]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41805054 and U20A2097]。
文摘Rainstorms are one of the most important types of natural disaster in China.In order to enhance the ability to forecast rainstorms in the short term,this paper explores how to combine a back-propagation neural network(BPNN)with synoptic diagnosis for predicting rainstorms,and analyzes the hit rates of rainstorms for the above two methods using the county of Tianquan as a case study.Results showed that the traditional synoptic diagnosis method still has an important referential meaning for most rainstorm types through synoptic typing and statistics of physical quantities based on historical cases,and the threat score(TS)of rainstorms was more than 0.75.However,the accuracy for two rainstorm types influenced by low-level easterly inverted troughs was less than 40%.The BPNN method efficiently forecasted these two rainstorm types;the TS and equitable threat score(ETS)of rainstorms were 0.80 and 0.79,respectively.The TS and ETS of the hybrid model that combined the BPNN and synoptic diagnosis methods exceeded the forecast score of multi-numerical simulations over the Sichuan Basin without exception.This kind of hybrid model enhanced the forecasting accuracy of rainstorms.The findings of this study provide certain reference value for the future development of refined forecast models with local features.
基金support provided in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2020YFB1005804)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 61632009+1 种基金in part by the High-Level Talents Program of Higher Education in Guangdong Province under Grant 2016ZJ01in part by the NCRA-017,NUST,Islamabad.
文摘Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.
基金the Research of New Intelligent Integrated Transport Information System,Technical Plan Project of Binhai New District,Tianjin(No.2015XJR21017)
文摘The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71361130012 and 61221003)the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(No.20120073110017)
文摘Short-term forecast of urban traffic flow is very important to intelligent transportation. Although the conventional methods have some advantages, to some extent, in improving the traffic forecast's precision, it is still hard to achieve high accuracy. In this paper, we propose a short-term traffic flow forecasting method, which is based on the hybrid particle swarm optimization-neural network(HPSO-NN) with error compensation mechanism.In HPSO-NN, the hybrid PSO algorithm is employed to train the structures and parameters of the feed-forward advanced neural network, while the error compensation mechanism is employed to improve the accuracy. HPSONN is used to forecast the vehicle velocity in Shanghai North-South Viaduct. Experimental results show that the HPSO-NN, compared with the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) model, can forecast traffic flow with a higher accuracy. What's more, we have also found that HPSO-NN with error compensation mechanism has better performance than that of HPSO-NN alone.
基金the Shanghai Rising-Star Program(No.22QA1403900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71804106)the Noncarbon Energy Conversion and Utilization Institute under the Shanghai Class IV Peak Disciplinary Development Program.
文摘Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.
基金This work was supported by the open fund project of Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineer-ing,Ocean University of China(No.kloe201901)the Major International(Regional)Joint Research Project of the National Science Foundation of China(No.41520104008).
文摘Short-term forecasts of wave energy play a key role in the daily operation,maintenance planning,and electrical grid operation of power farms.In this study,we propose a short-term wave energy forecast scheme and use the North Indian Ocean(NIO)as a case study.Compared with the traditional forecast scheme,our proposed scheme considers more forecast elements.In addition to the traditional short-term forecast factors related to wave energy(wave power,significant wave height(SWH),wave period),our scheme emphasizes the forecast of a series of key factors that are closely related to the effectiveness of the energy output,capture efficiency,and conversion efficiency.These factors include the available rate,total storage,effective storage,co-occurrence of wave power-wave direction,co-occurrence of the SWH-wave period,and the wave energy at key points.In the regional nesting of nu-merical simulations of wave energy in the NIO,the selection of the southern boundary is found to have a significant impact on the simulation precision,especially during periods of strong swell processes of the South Indian Ocean(SIO)westerly.During tropical cyclone‘VARDAH’in the NIO,as compared with the simulation precision obtained with no expansion of the southern boundary(scheme-1),when the southern boundary is extended to the tropical SIO(scheme-2),the improvement in simulation precision is significant,with an obvious increase in the correlation coefficient and decrease in error.In addition,the improvement is much more significant when the southern boundary extends to the SIO westerly(scheme-3).In the case of strong swell processes generated by the SIO westerly,the improvement obtained by scheme-3 is even more significant.
基金the Special Program for Innovation Methodology of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2016IM010100)。
文摘Load forecasting can increase the efficiency of modern energy systems with built-in measuring systerms by providing a more accurate peak power shaving performance and thus more reliable control.An analysis of an integrated CO2 heat pump and chiller system with a hot water storage system is presented in this paper.Drastic power fluctuations,which can be reduced with load forecasting,are found in historical operation records.A model that aims to forecast the ventilation system heating demand is thus established on the basis of a long short-term memory(LSTM)network.The model can successfully forecast the one hour ahead power using records of the past 48h of the system operation data and the ambient temperature.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the forecast results of the LSTM-based model is 10.70%,which is respectively 2.2%and 7.25%better than the MAPEs of the forecast results of the support vector regression based and persistence method based models.
基金Science and Technology Development Fund of Macao Special Administrative Region (0009/2024/RIB1)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2020B0301030004)。
文摘The inherent black-box nature of machine learning(ML) models limits their interpretability and broader application in heavy precipitation forecasting. Evaluating the reliability of these models involves analyzing the link between predictions and predictors. In this study, ERA5 reanalysis data, CERES satellite observations, and ground-based meteorological observatories were utilized to compile more comprehensive multi-type predictors for developing a Bayesian optimized XGBoost model for the nowcasting of heavy precipitation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during the pre-summer rainy season. A comparison of model performance with different combinations of input features and classical machine learning algorithms demonstrated that the Bayesian optimized XGBoost model achieved the best overall performance, with an average Critical Success Index of 68.30%. Permutation Importance(PI) and shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP) methods were utilized to interpret feature effects in heavy precipitation forecasting. The results indicated that precipitable water vapor(PWV), cloud, relative humidity, and seasonal and diurnal variables had more significant effects on the model output as individual features. Furthermore, the collective influence of derivatives from PWV and meteorological parameters(e.g., temperature, relative humidity, pressure and dew point temperature)showed a significant enhancement over their individual impacts, indicating synergistic interactions among these predictors.Applying explainable artificial intelligence(XAI) to ML models helps understand how models utilize features for forecasting, enhances the reliability of forecasts, and guides feature selection and the mitigation of overfitting phenomena.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.U22A20579Guangxi Key R&D Program of China under contract No.GUIKE AB25069453+2 种基金the Integrated Marine and Fishery Services Program of Fujian Provincial Department of Ocean and Fisheries under contract No.FYZF-YJYB-2025-1-2the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province,China,under contract No.2023Y4001the Science and Technology Program of Xiamen,China,under contract No.3502Z20226021.
文摘Algal blooms pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and human health.Accurate forecasting of chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is critical for effective control of harmful algal blooms(HABs).This study proposes a novel approach for enhancing Chl-a concentration forecasting by integrating the AdaBoost algorithm with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks.We developed a strong forecasting model by combining adaptive boosting(AdaBoost)with LSTM models in Xiamen Bay,China.This model achieved higher correlation coefficients and lower root mean square errors than individual weak models.The AdaBoost-optimized model increased the frequency of low absolute errors while decreasing the occurrence of high absolute errors,which indicated improved overall prediction accuracy and reliability.Moreover,the model effectively reduced performance fluctuations,which are frequent in deep learning models.The application of a non-uniform initial weighting scheme within the AdaBoost framework further enhanced model performance for high Chl-a concentration values,which are critical for detecting HABs.The optimization effect of AdaBoost was validated by applying it to data collected from the Ningde area.A robust framework is provided in this study to improve Chl-a concentration predictions and offer valuable insights for managing coastal ecosystems facing the challenges of algal blooms.
文摘Accurate forecasting of oil production is essential for optimizing resource management and minimizing operational risks in the energy sector. Traditional time-series forecasting techniques, despite their widespread application, often encounter difficulties in handling the complexities of oil production data, which is characterized by non-linear patterns, skewed distributions, and the presence of outliers. To overcome these limitations, deep learning methods have emerged as more robust alternatives. However, while deep neural networks offer improved accuracy, they demand substantial amounts of data for effective training. Conversely, shallow networks with fewer layers lack the capacity to model complex data distributions adequately. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel hybrid model called Transfer LSTM to GRU (TLTG), which combines the strengths of deep and shallow networks using transfer learning. The TLTG model integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to enhance predictive accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Gaussian transformation is applied to the input data to reduce outliers and skewness, creating a more normal-like distribution. The proposed approach is validated on datasets from various wells in the Tahe oil field, China. Experimental results highlight the superior performance of the TLTG model, achieving 100% accuracy and faster prediction times (200 s) compared to eight other approaches, demonstrating its effectiveness and efficiency.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52474435)China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(BWLCF202307).
文摘Accurate forecasting of blast furnace gas(BFG)production is an essential prerequisite for reasonable energy scheduling and management to reduce carbon emissions.Coupling forecasting between BFG generation and consumption dynamics was taken as the research object.A multi-task learning(MTL)method for BFG forecasting was proposed,which integrated a coupling correlation coefficient(CCC)and an inverted transformer structure.The CCC method could enhance key information extraction by establishing relationships between multiple prediction targets and relevant factors,while MTL effectively captured the inherent correlations between BFG generation and consumption.Finally,a real-world case study was conducted to compare the proposed model with four benchmark models.Results indicated significant reductions in average mean absolute percentage error by 33.37%,achieving 1.92%,with a computational time of 76 s.The sensitivity analysis of hyperparameters such as learning rate,batch size,and units of the long short-term memory layer highlights the importance of hyperparameter tuning.
基金partially supported by projects funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFB2403000)the State Grid Corporation of China Science and Technology Project(522722230034).
文摘Accurate forecasting of electricity spot prices is crucial for market participants in formulating bidding strategies.However,the extreme volatility of electricity spot prices,influenced by various factors,poses significant challenges for forecasting.To address the data uncertainty of electricity prices and effectively mitigate gradient issues,overfitting,and computational challenges associated with using a single model during forecasting,this paper proposes a framework for forecasting spot market electricity prices by integrating wavelet packet decomposition(WPD)with a hybrid deep neural network.By ensuring accurate data decomposition,the WPD algorithm aids in detecting fluctuating patterns and isolating random noise.The hybrid model integrates temporal convolutional networks(TCN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)networks to enhance feature extraction and improve forecasting performance.Compared to other techniques,it significantly reduces average errors,decreasing mean absolute error(MAE)by 27.3%,root mean square error(RMSE)by 66.9%,and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)by 22.8%.This framework effectively captures the intricate fluctuations present in the time series,resulting in more accurate and reliable predictions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 51777193.
文摘An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.
