Apps can help you in your daily life.For example,the app Kiwake helps you wake up.Its special alarm won't turn off until you do three things.You must take a picture of something far from your bed.Then play a short...Apps can help you in your daily life.For example,the app Kiwake helps you wake up.Its special alarm won't turn off until you do three things.You must take a picture of something far from your bed.Then play a short game to wake up your mind.After that,you must review your goals for the day.展开更多
Predictive maintenance often involves imbalanced multivariate time series datasets with scarce failure events,posing challenges for model training due to the high dimensionality of the data and the need for domain-spe...Predictive maintenance often involves imbalanced multivariate time series datasets with scarce failure events,posing challenges for model training due to the high dimensionality of the data and the need for domain-specific preprocessing,which frequently leads to the development of large and complex models.Inspired by the success of Large Language Models(LLMs),transformer-based foundation models have been developed for time series(TSFM).These models have been proven to reconstruct time series in a zero-shot manner,being able to capture different patterns that effectively characterize time series.This paper proposes the use of TSFM to generate embeddings of the input data space,making them more interpretable for machine learning models.To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach,we trained three classical machine learning algorithms and one neural network using the embeddings generated by the TSFM called Moment for predicting the remaining useful life of aircraft engines.We test the models trained with both the full training dataset and only 10%of the training samples.Our results show that training simple models,such as support vector regressors or neural networks,with embeddings generated by Moment not only accelerates the training process but also enhances performance in few-shot learning scenarios,where data is scarce.This suggests a promising alternative to complex deep learning architectures,particularly in industrial contexts with limited labeled data.展开更多
Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of batteries,contingent upon access to ample data.However,the inherent limitations of data availability from traditional or acc...Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of batteries,contingent upon access to ample data.However,the inherent limitations of data availability from traditional or accelerated life testing pose significant challenges.To mitigate the prediction accuracy issues arising from small sample sizes in existing intelligent methods,we introduce a novel data augmentation framework for RUL prediction.This framework harnesses the inherent high coincidence of degradation patterns exhibited by lithium-ion batteries to pinpoint the knee point,a critical juncture marking a significant shift in the degradation trajectory.By focusing on this critical knee point,we leverage the power of normalizing flow models to generate virtual data,effectively augmenting the training sample size.Additionally,we integrate a Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory network,optimized with Box-Cox transformation,to address the inherent uncertainty associated with predictions based on augmented data.This integration allows for a more nuanced understanding of RUL prediction uncertainties,offering valuable confidence intervals.The efficacy and superiority of the proposed framework are validated through extensive experiments on the CS2 dataset from the University of Maryland and the CrFeMnNiCo dataset from our laboratory.The results clearly demonstrate a substantial improvement in the confidence interval of RUL predictions compared to pre-optimization,highlighting the ability of the framework to achieve high-precision RUL predictions even with limited data.展开更多
Since the foundation of the Western modern university in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries,there has always been debate on the purpose and social or political utility of scientific knowledge.The question remains...Since the foundation of the Western modern university in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries,there has always been debate on the purpose and social or political utility of scientific knowledge.The question remains as to what we consider as‘useful knowledge’to be(Flexner,1939;Gibbons et al.,1994).The purpose of this paper is to explore and propose an alternative conception of scientific knowledge usefulness,advocating for a balanced approach between direct and indirect utility of knowledge in higher education.To this end,the paper revisits Mill’s(1859)conception of epistemic utility as explained in his work On Liberty to present an idea of scientific knowledge usefulness which is utilitarian in a broader sense.Building on this foundation,the paper promotes a pluralistic conception of epistemic utility and suggests a typology by discerning between direct and indirect utility of knowledge.Overall,by revisiting Mill’s(1859)notion of utility,this paper aims to demonstrate that the notion of‘utility’is not only a function that serves the Idea of the University,but it is also linked to the notion of‘self-development’-Bildung.In that sense,one can make the case for a broader and more complex scientific utilitarianism.展开更多
Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degra...Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degradation information to improve the prediction accuracy of degradation value or health indicator for the next epoch.However,they ignore the cumulative prediction error caused by iterations before reaching the failure point.展开更多
The remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing is vital in safety and reliability guarantee.In engineering scenarios,only a small amount of bearing performance degradation data can be obtained through acceler...The remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing is vital in safety and reliability guarantee.In engineering scenarios,only a small amount of bearing performance degradation data can be obtained through accelerated life testing.In the absence of lifetime data,the hidden long-term correlation between performance degradation data is challenging to mine effectively,which is the main factor that restricts the prediction precision and engineering application of the residual life prediction method.To address this problem,a novel method based on the multi-layer perception neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory network is proposed.Firstly,a nonlinear health indicator(HI)calculation method based on kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)and exponential weighted moving average(EWMA)is designed.Then,using the raw vibration data and HI,a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network is trained to further calculate the HI of the online bearing in real time.Furthermore,The bidirectional long short-term memory model(BiLSTM)optimized by particle swarm optimization(PSO)is used to mine the time series features of HI and predict the remaining service life.Performance verification experiments and comparative experiments are carried out on the XJTU-SY bearing open dataset.The research results indicate that this method has an excellent ability to predict future HI and remaining life.展开更多
The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle co...The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle costs.To achieve the reliable,rapid,and accurate RUL prognostics,the balance between accuracy and computational burden deserves more attention.In addition,the uncertainty is intrinsically present in RUL prognostic process.Due to the limitation of the uncertainty quantification,the point-wise prognostics strategy is not trustworthy.A Dual Adaptive Sliding-window Hybrid(DASH)RUL probabilistic prognostics strategy is proposed to tackle these deficiencies.The DASH strategy contains two adaptive mechanisms,the adaptive Long Short-Term Memory-Polynomial Regression(LSTM-PR)hybrid prognostics mechanism and the adaptive sliding-window Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)probabilistic prognostics mechanism.Owing to the dual adaptive mechanisms,the DASH strategy can achieve the balance between accuracy and computational burden and obtain the trustworthy probabilistic prognostics.Based on the degradation dataset of aircraft electromagnetic contactors,the superiority of DASH strategy is validated.In terms of probabilistic,point-wise and integrated prognostics performance,the proposed strategy increases by 66.89%,81.73% and 25.84%on average compared with the baseline methods and their variants.展开更多
In view of the difficulty in determining remaining useful life of plant new variety right in economic analysis, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model to were used to study how to accurately estimate the ...In view of the difficulty in determining remaining useful life of plant new variety right in economic analysis, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model to were used to study how to accurately estimate the remaining useful life of plant new variety right. The results showed that the average life of the granted rice varieties was 10.013 years. With the increase of the age of plant variety rights, the probability of the same residual life Ttreaching x was smaller and smaller, the reliability lower and lower, while the probability of the variety rights becoming invalid became greater. The remaining useful life of a specific granted rice variety was closely related to the demonstration promotion age when the granted rice variety reached its maximum area and the appearance of alternative varieties, and when the demonstration promotion age of the granted rice variety reaching the one with the maximum area, the promotion area would be decreased once a new alternative variety appeared, correspondingly with the shortening of the remaining useful life of the variety. Therefore, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model could describe the remaining useful life＇s time trend, as well as determine the remaining useful life of a concrete plant variety right, clarify the entire life time of varieties rights, and make the economic analysis of plant new varieties rights more accurate and reasonable.展开更多
《牛津现代英汉双解词典》(增补版)将词条"outlast"[1](P1440)的一个义项及其例证last longer than du-ration和outlasted its usefulness分别译作"比…经久"与"经久耐用"。实际上这是两则明显的误解与...《牛津现代英汉双解词典》(增补版)将词条"outlast"[1](P1440)的一个义项及其例证last longer than du-ration和outlasted its usefulness分别译作"比…经久"与"经久耐用"。实际上这是两则明显的误解与误译。与此相反,它们实应理解为"(某事物因存在或使用时间超过特定期限而)不再经久"(no longer last or exist)和"不再有用"(be no longer useful)。文章从语言的连续统(continuum)视角对相关理据作了客观分析与可能探索,兼及双语词典翻译的相关原则问题。展开更多
An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump＇s degradation fiom comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char- acteristics must be factored into ...An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump＇s degradation fiom comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char- acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life （RUL） of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization （EM） algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord- ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi- cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.展开更多
Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life （RUL） estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a criti...Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life （RUL） estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine （RVM） is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery＇s RUL due to its sparse feature and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery＇s RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better performance for RUL estimation.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the fail...Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.展开更多
Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage devices,for which the accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial to their reliable operation and accident prevention.This work thoroug...Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage devices,for which the accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial to their reliable operation and accident prevention.This work thoroughly investigates the developmental trend of RUL prediction with machine learning(ML)algorithms based on the objective screening and statistics of related papers over the past decade to analyze the research core and find future improvement directions.The possibility of extending lithium-ion battery lifetime using RUL prediction results is also explored in this paper.The ten most used ML algorithms for RUL prediction are first identified in 380 relevant papers.Then the general flow of RUL prediction and an in-depth introduction to the four most used signal pre-processing techniques in RUL prediction are presented.The research core of common ML algorithms is given first time in a uniform format in chronological order.The algorithms are also compared from aspects of accuracy and characteristics comprehensively,and the novel and general improvement directions or opportunities including improvement in early prediction,local regeneration modeling,physical information fusion,generalized transfer learning,and hardware implementation are further outlooked.Finally,the methods of battery lifetime extension are summarized,and the feasibility of using RUL as an indicator for extending battery lifetime is outlooked.Battery lifetime can be extended by optimizing the charging profile serval times according to the accurate RUL prediction results online in the future.This paper aims to give inspiration to the future improvement of ML algorithms in battery RUL prediction and lifetime extension strategy.展开更多
The remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of mechanical products has been widely studied for online system performance reliability, device remanufacturing, and product safety(safety awareness and safety improvement). ...The remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of mechanical products has been widely studied for online system performance reliability, device remanufacturing, and product safety(safety awareness and safety improvement). These studies incorporated many di erent models, algorithms, and techniques for modeling and assessment. In this paper, methods of RUL assessment are summarized and expounded upon using two major methods: physics model based and data driven based methods. The advantages and disadvantages of each of these methods are deliberated and compared as well. Due to the intricacy of failure mechanism in system, and di culty in physics degradation observation, RUL assessment based on observations of performance variables turns into a science in evaluating the degradation. A modeling method from control systems, the state space model(SSM), as a first order hidden Markov, is presented. In the context of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems, the SSM methodology is capable of performing remaining life assessment by using Bayesian estimation(sequential Monte Carlo). Being e ective for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamics, the methodology can perform the assessment recursively online for applications in CBM(condition based maintenance), PHM(prognostics and health management), remanufacturing, and system performance reliability. Finally, the discussion raises concerns regarding online sensing data for SSM modeling and assessment of RUL.展开更多
As the key part of Prognostics and Health Management（PHM）, Remaining Useful Life（RUL） estimation has been extensively investigated in recent years. Current RUL estimation studies considering the intervention of im...As the key part of Prognostics and Health Management（PHM）, Remaining Useful Life（RUL） estimation has been extensively investigated in recent years. Current RUL estimation studies considering the intervention of imperfect maintenance activities usually assumed that maintenance activities have a single influence on the degradation level or degradation rate, but not on both.Aimed at this problem, this paper proposes a new degradation modeling and RUL estimation method taking the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on both the degradation level and the degradation rate into account. Toward this end, a stochastic degradation model considering imperfect maintenance activities is firstly constructed based on the diffusion process. Then, the Probability Density Function（PDF） of the RUL is derived by the convolution operator under the concept of First Hitting Time（FHT）. To implement the proposed RUL estimation method,the Maximum Likelihood Estimation（MLE） is utilized to estimate the degradation related parameters based on the Condition Monitoring（CM） data, while the Bayesian method is utilized to estimate the maintenance related parameters based on the maintenance data. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study are provided to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method could greatly improve the RUL estimation accuracy for the degrading equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance activities.展开更多
For critical engineering systems such as aircraft and aerospace vehicles, accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction not only means cost saving, but more importantly, is of great significance in ensuring system re...For critical engineering systems such as aircraft and aerospace vehicles, accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction not only means cost saving, but more importantly, is of great significance in ensuring system reliability and preventing disaster. RUL is affected not only by a system's intrinsic deterioration, but also by the operational conditions under which the system is operating. This paper proposes an RUL prediction approach to estimate the mean RUL of a continuously degrading system under dynamic operational conditions and subjected to condition monitoring at short equi-distant intervals. The dynamic nature of the operational conditions is described by a discrete-time Markov chain, and their influences on the degradation signal are quantified by degradation rates and signal jumps in the degradation model. The uniqueness of our proposed approach is formulating the RUL prediction problem in a semi-Markov decision process framework, by which the system mean RUL can be obtained through the solution to a limited number of equations. To extend the use of our proposed approach in real applications, different failure standards according to different operational conditions are also considered. The application and effectiveness of this approach are illustrated by a turbofan engine dataset and a comparison with existing results for the same dataset.展开更多
The remaining useful life(RUL)estimation of bearings is critical for ensuring the reliability of mechanical systems.Owing to the rapid development of deep learning methods,a multitude of data-driven RUL estimation app...The remaining useful life(RUL)estimation of bearings is critical for ensuring the reliability of mechanical systems.Owing to the rapid development of deep learning methods,a multitude of data-driven RUL estimation approaches have been proposed recently.However,the following problems remain in existing methods:1)Most network models use raw data or statistical features as input,which renders it difficult to extract complex fault-related information hidden in signals;2)for current observations,the dependence between current states is emphasized,but their complex dependence on previous states is often disregarded;3)the output of neural networks is directly used as the estimated RUL in most studies,resulting in extremely volatile prediction results that lack robustness.Hence,a novel prognostics approach is proposed based on a time-frequency representation(TFR)subsequence,three-dimensional convolutional neural network(3DCNN),and Gaussian process regression(GPR).The approach primarily comprises two aspects:construction of a health indicator(HI)using the TFR-subsequence-3DCNN model,and RUL estimation based on the GPR model.The raw signals of the bearings are converted into TFR-subsequences by continuous wavelet transform and a dislocated overlapping strategy.Subsequently,the 3DCNN is applied to extract the hidden spatiotemporal features from the TFR-subsequences and construct HIs.Finally,the RUL of the bearings is estimated using the GPR model,which can also define the probability distribution of the potential function and prediction confidence.Experiments on the PRONOSTIA platform demonstrate the superiority of the proposed TFR-subsequence-3DCNN-GPR approach.The use of degradation-related spatiotemporal features in signals is proposed herein to achieve a highly accurate bearing RUL prediction with uncertainty quantification.展开更多
The value range of the failure threshold will generate an uncertain influence on the prediction results for the remaining useful life(RUL) of equipment. Most of the existing studies on the RUL prediction assume that t...The value range of the failure threshold will generate an uncertain influence on the prediction results for the remaining useful life(RUL) of equipment. Most of the existing studies on the RUL prediction assume that the failure threshold is a fixed value,as they have difficulty in reflecting the random variation of the failure threshold. In connection with the inadequacies of the existing research, an in-depth analysis is carried out to study the effect of the random failure threshold(RFT) on the prediction results for the RUL. First, a nonlinear degradation model with unit-to-unit variability and measurement error is established based on the nonlinear Wiener process. Second, the expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm is used to solve the estimated values of the parameters of the prior degradation model, and the Bayesian method is used to iteratively update the posterior distribution of the random coefficients. Then, the effects of three types of RFT constraint conditions on the prediction results for the RUL are analyzed, and the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL is derived. Finally,the degradation data of aero-turbofan engines are used to verify the correctness and advantages of the method.展开更多
Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life(RUL)and health state for rollers is of great significance to hot rolling production.It can provide decision support for roller management so as to improve the productiv...Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life(RUL)and health state for rollers is of great significance to hot rolling production.It can provide decision support for roller management so as to improve the productivity of the hot rolling process.In addition,the RUL prediction for rollers is helpful in transitioning from the current regular maintenance strategy to conditional-based maintenance.Therefore,a new method that can extract coarse-grained and fine-grained features from batch data to predict the RUL of the rollers is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a new deep learning network architecture based on recurrent neural networks that can make full use of the extracted coarsegrained fine-grained features to estimate the heath indicator(HI)is developed,where the HI is able to indicate the health state of the roller.Following that,a state-space model is constructed to describe the HI,and the probabilistic distribution of RUL can be estimated by extrapolating the HI degradation model to a predefined failure threshold.Finally,application to a hot strip mill is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods using data collected from an industrial site,and the relatively low RMSE and MAE values demonstrate its advantages compared with some other popular deep learning methods.展开更多
As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenanc...As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.展开更多
文摘Apps can help you in your daily life.For example,the app Kiwake helps you wake up.Its special alarm won't turn off until you do three things.You must take a picture of something far from your bed.Then play a short game to wake up your mind.After that,you must review your goals for the day.
基金Funded by the Spanish Government and FEDER funds(AEI/FEDER,UE)under grant PID2021-124502OB-C42(PRESECREL)the predoctoral program“Concepción Arenal del Programa de Personal Investigador en formación Predoctoral”funded by Universidad de Cantabria and Cantabria’s Government(BOC 18-10-2021).
文摘Predictive maintenance often involves imbalanced multivariate time series datasets with scarce failure events,posing challenges for model training due to the high dimensionality of the data and the need for domain-specific preprocessing,which frequently leads to the development of large and complex models.Inspired by the success of Large Language Models(LLMs),transformer-based foundation models have been developed for time series(TSFM).These models have been proven to reconstruct time series in a zero-shot manner,being able to capture different patterns that effectively characterize time series.This paper proposes the use of TSFM to generate embeddings of the input data space,making them more interpretable for machine learning models.To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach,we trained three classical machine learning algorithms and one neural network using the embeddings generated by the TSFM called Moment for predicting the remaining useful life of aircraft engines.We test the models trained with both the full training dataset and only 10%of the training samples.Our results show that training simple models,such as support vector regressors or neural networks,with embeddings generated by Moment not only accelerates the training process but also enhances performance in few-shot learning scenarios,where data is scarce.This suggests a promising alternative to complex deep learning architectures,particularly in industrial contexts with limited labeled data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62227814,52205040,22279070,and U21A20170)the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi(2023-JC-QN-0140)+3 种基金the Young Talent Fund of Xi’an Association for Science and Technology(Grant No.959202313096)the Key Projects of the Shaanxi Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2025JC-QYXQ-038)the Open Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems(Grant No.GZKF-202430)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2024YFB3311204)。
文摘Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of batteries,contingent upon access to ample data.However,the inherent limitations of data availability from traditional or accelerated life testing pose significant challenges.To mitigate the prediction accuracy issues arising from small sample sizes in existing intelligent methods,we introduce a novel data augmentation framework for RUL prediction.This framework harnesses the inherent high coincidence of degradation patterns exhibited by lithium-ion batteries to pinpoint the knee point,a critical juncture marking a significant shift in the degradation trajectory.By focusing on this critical knee point,we leverage the power of normalizing flow models to generate virtual data,effectively augmenting the training sample size.Additionally,we integrate a Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory network,optimized with Box-Cox transformation,to address the inherent uncertainty associated with predictions based on augmented data.This integration allows for a more nuanced understanding of RUL prediction uncertainties,offering valuable confidence intervals.The efficacy and superiority of the proposed framework are validated through extensive experiments on the CS2 dataset from the University of Maryland and the CrFeMnNiCo dataset from our laboratory.The results clearly demonstrate a substantial improvement in the confidence interval of RUL predictions compared to pre-optimization,highlighting the ability of the framework to achieve high-precision RUL predictions even with limited data.
基金supported by a grant from the Onassis Foundation,a funding body based in Greece.
文摘Since the foundation of the Western modern university in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries,there has always been debate on the purpose and social or political utility of scientific knowledge.The question remains as to what we consider as‘useful knowledge’to be(Flexner,1939;Gibbons et al.,1994).The purpose of this paper is to explore and propose an alternative conception of scientific knowledge usefulness,advocating for a balanced approach between direct and indirect utility of knowledge in higher education.To this end,the paper revisits Mill’s(1859)conception of epistemic utility as explained in his work On Liberty to present an idea of scientific knowledge usefulness which is utilitarian in a broader sense.Building on this foundation,the paper promotes a pluralistic conception of epistemic utility and suggests a typology by discerning between direct and indirect utility of knowledge.Overall,by revisiting Mill’s(1859)notion of utility,this paper aims to demonstrate that the notion of‘utility’is not only a function that serves the Idea of the University,but it is also linked to the notion of‘self-development’-Bildung.In that sense,one can make the case for a broader and more complex scientific utilitarianism.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2034209)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Chongqing(cstc2021jcyj-bsh X0047)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2022CDJJMRH-008)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62203075)
文摘Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degradation information to improve the prediction accuracy of degradation value or health indicator for the next epoch.However,they ignore the cumulative prediction error caused by iterations before reaching the failure point.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project(Grant Number 2023YFB3709601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Numbers 62373215,62373219,62073193)+2 种基金the Key Research and Development Plan of Shandong Province(Grant Numbers 2021CXGC010204,2022CXGC020902)the Fundamental Research Funds of Shandong University(Grant Number 2021JCG008)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant Number ZR2023MF100).
文摘The remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing is vital in safety and reliability guarantee.In engineering scenarios,only a small amount of bearing performance degradation data can be obtained through accelerated life testing.In the absence of lifetime data,the hidden long-term correlation between performance degradation data is challenging to mine effectively,which is the main factor that restricts the prediction precision and engineering application of the residual life prediction method.To address this problem,a novel method based on the multi-layer perception neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory network is proposed.Firstly,a nonlinear health indicator(HI)calculation method based on kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)and exponential weighted moving average(EWMA)is designed.Then,using the raw vibration data and HI,a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network is trained to further calculate the HI of the online bearing in real time.Furthermore,The bidirectional long short-term memory model(BiLSTM)optimized by particle swarm optimization(PSO)is used to mine the time series features of HI and predict the remaining service life.Performance verification experiments and comparative experiments are carried out on the XJTU-SY bearing open dataset.The research results indicate that this method has an excellent ability to predict future HI and remaining life.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52272403,52402506)Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi,China(Nos.2022JC-27,2023-JC-QN-0599)。
文摘The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle costs.To achieve the reliable,rapid,and accurate RUL prognostics,the balance between accuracy and computational burden deserves more attention.In addition,the uncertainty is intrinsically present in RUL prognostic process.Due to the limitation of the uncertainty quantification,the point-wise prognostics strategy is not trustworthy.A Dual Adaptive Sliding-window Hybrid(DASH)RUL probabilistic prognostics strategy is proposed to tackle these deficiencies.The DASH strategy contains two adaptive mechanisms,the adaptive Long Short-Term Memory-Polynomial Regression(LSTM-PR)hybrid prognostics mechanism and the adaptive sliding-window Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)probabilistic prognostics mechanism.Owing to the dual adaptive mechanisms,the DASH strategy can achieve the balance between accuracy and computational burden and obtain the trustworthy probabilistic prognostics.Based on the degradation dataset of aircraft electromagnetic contactors,the superiority of DASH strategy is validated.In terms of probabilistic,point-wise and integrated prognostics performance,the proposed strategy increases by 66.89%,81.73% and 25.84%on average compared with the baseline methods and their variants.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71273264)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Welfare Scientific Research Institutes of China(2015-14)~~
文摘In view of the difficulty in determining remaining useful life of plant new variety right in economic analysis, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model to were used to study how to accurately estimate the remaining useful life of plant new variety right. The results showed that the average life of the granted rice varieties was 10.013 years. With the increase of the age of plant variety rights, the probability of the same residual life Ttreaching x was smaller and smaller, the reliability lower and lower, while the probability of the variety rights becoming invalid became greater. The remaining useful life of a specific granted rice variety was closely related to the demonstration promotion age when the granted rice variety reached its maximum area and the appearance of alternative varieties, and when the demonstration promotion age of the granted rice variety reaching the one with the maximum area, the promotion area would be decreased once a new alternative variety appeared, correspondingly with the shortening of the remaining useful life of the variety. Therefore, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model could describe the remaining useful life＇s time trend, as well as determine the remaining useful life of a concrete plant variety right, clarify the entire life time of varieties rights, and make the economic analysis of plant new varieties rights more accurate and reasonable.
文摘《牛津现代英汉双解词典》(增补版)将词条"outlast"[1](P1440)的一个义项及其例证last longer than du-ration和outlasted its usefulness分别译作"比…经久"与"经久耐用"。实际上这是两则明显的误解与误译。与此相反,它们实应理解为"(某事物因存在或使用时间超过特定期限而)不再经久"(no longer last or exist)和"不再有用"(be no longer useful)。文章从语言的连续统(continuum)视角对相关理据作了客观分析与可能探索,兼及双语词典翻译的相关原则问题。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51305011)the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2014CB046402)the 111 Project of China
文摘An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump＇s degradation fiom comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char- acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life （RUL） of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization （EM） algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord- ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi- cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.
基金co-supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61301205 and 61571160)the Natural Scientific Research Innovation Foundation at Harbin Institute of Technology (No. HIT.NSRIF.2014017)
文摘Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life （RUL） estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine （RVM） is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery＇s RUL due to its sparse feature and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery＇s RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better performance for RUL estimation.
基金Projects(51475462,61174030,61473094,61374126)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.
基金funded by China Scholarship Council,The fund numbers are 202108320111,202208320055。
文摘Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage devices,for which the accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial to their reliable operation and accident prevention.This work thoroughly investigates the developmental trend of RUL prediction with machine learning(ML)algorithms based on the objective screening and statistics of related papers over the past decade to analyze the research core and find future improvement directions.The possibility of extending lithium-ion battery lifetime using RUL prediction results is also explored in this paper.The ten most used ML algorithms for RUL prediction are first identified in 380 relevant papers.Then the general flow of RUL prediction and an in-depth introduction to the four most used signal pre-processing techniques in RUL prediction are presented.The research core of common ML algorithms is given first time in a uniform format in chronological order.The algorithms are also compared from aspects of accuracy and characteristics comprehensively,and the novel and general improvement directions or opportunities including improvement in early prediction,local regeneration modeling,physical information fusion,generalized transfer learning,and hardware implementation are further outlooked.Finally,the methods of battery lifetime extension are summarized,and the feasibility of using RUL as an indicator for extending battery lifetime is outlooked.Battery lifetime can be extended by optimizing the charging profile serval times according to the accurate RUL prediction results online in the future.This paper aims to give inspiration to the future improvement of ML algorithms in battery RUL prediction and lifetime extension strategy.
基金Supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Grant No.DUT17GF214)
文摘The remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of mechanical products has been widely studied for online system performance reliability, device remanufacturing, and product safety(safety awareness and safety improvement). These studies incorporated many di erent models, algorithms, and techniques for modeling and assessment. In this paper, methods of RUL assessment are summarized and expounded upon using two major methods: physics model based and data driven based methods. The advantages and disadvantages of each of these methods are deliberated and compared as well. Due to the intricacy of failure mechanism in system, and di culty in physics degradation observation, RUL assessment based on observations of performance variables turns into a science in evaluating the degradation. A modeling method from control systems, the state space model(SSM), as a first order hidden Markov, is presented. In the context of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems, the SSM methodology is capable of performing remaining life assessment by using Bayesian estimation(sequential Monte Carlo). Being e ective for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamics, the methodology can perform the assessment recursively online for applications in CBM(condition based maintenance), PHM(prognostics and health management), remanufacturing, and system performance reliability. Finally, the discussion raises concerns regarding online sensing data for SSM modeling and assessment of RUL.
基金co-supported by the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.61573365,61603398,61374126,61473094,and 61773386)the Young Talent Fund of University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi,Chinathe Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program(YESS)by China Association for Science and Technology(CAST)
文摘As the key part of Prognostics and Health Management（PHM）, Remaining Useful Life（RUL） estimation has been extensively investigated in recent years. Current RUL estimation studies considering the intervention of imperfect maintenance activities usually assumed that maintenance activities have a single influence on the degradation level or degradation rate, but not on both.Aimed at this problem, this paper proposes a new degradation modeling and RUL estimation method taking the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on both the degradation level and the degradation rate into account. Toward this end, a stochastic degradation model considering imperfect maintenance activities is firstly constructed based on the diffusion process. Then, the Probability Density Function（PDF） of the RUL is derived by the convolution operator under the concept of First Hitting Time（FHT）. To implement the proposed RUL estimation method,the Maximum Likelihood Estimation（MLE） is utilized to estimate the degradation related parameters based on the Condition Monitoring（CM） data, while the Bayesian method is utilized to estimate the maintenance related parameters based on the maintenance data. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study are provided to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method could greatly improve the RUL estimation accuracy for the degrading equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance activities.
基金the National Natural science Foundation of China (No. 71701008) for supporting this research
文摘For critical engineering systems such as aircraft and aerospace vehicles, accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction not only means cost saving, but more importantly, is of great significance in ensuring system reliability and preventing disaster. RUL is affected not only by a system's intrinsic deterioration, but also by the operational conditions under which the system is operating. This paper proposes an RUL prediction approach to estimate the mean RUL of a continuously degrading system under dynamic operational conditions and subjected to condition monitoring at short equi-distant intervals. The dynamic nature of the operational conditions is described by a discrete-time Markov chain, and their influences on the degradation signal are quantified by degradation rates and signal jumps in the degradation model. The uniqueness of our proposed approach is formulating the RUL prediction problem in a semi-Markov decision process framework, by which the system mean RUL can be obtained through the solution to a limited number of equations. To extend the use of our proposed approach in real applications, different failure standards according to different operational conditions are also considered. The application and effectiveness of this approach are illustrated by a turbofan engine dataset and a comparison with existing results for the same dataset.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Project of China(Grant No.2020YFB2007700)State Key Laboratory of Tribology Initiative Research Program(Grant No.SKLT2020D21)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51975309)Shaanxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2019JQ-712)Young Talent Fund of University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi(Grant No.20170511).
文摘The remaining useful life(RUL)estimation of bearings is critical for ensuring the reliability of mechanical systems.Owing to the rapid development of deep learning methods,a multitude of data-driven RUL estimation approaches have been proposed recently.However,the following problems remain in existing methods:1)Most network models use raw data or statistical features as input,which renders it difficult to extract complex fault-related information hidden in signals;2)for current observations,the dependence between current states is emphasized,but their complex dependence on previous states is often disregarded;3)the output of neural networks is directly used as the estimated RUL in most studies,resulting in extremely volatile prediction results that lack robustness.Hence,a novel prognostics approach is proposed based on a time-frequency representation(TFR)subsequence,three-dimensional convolutional neural network(3DCNN),and Gaussian process regression(GPR).The approach primarily comprises two aspects:construction of a health indicator(HI)using the TFR-subsequence-3DCNN model,and RUL estimation based on the GPR model.The raw signals of the bearings are converted into TFR-subsequences by continuous wavelet transform and a dislocated overlapping strategy.Subsequently,the 3DCNN is applied to extract the hidden spatiotemporal features from the TFR-subsequences and construct HIs.Finally,the RUL of the bearings is estimated using the GPR model,which can also define the probability distribution of the potential function and prediction confidence.Experiments on the PRONOSTIA platform demonstrate the superiority of the proposed TFR-subsequence-3DCNN-GPR approach.The use of degradation-related spatiotemporal features in signals is proposed herein to achieve a highly accurate bearing RUL prediction with uncertainty quantification.
基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)。
文摘The value range of the failure threshold will generate an uncertain influence on the prediction results for the remaining useful life(RUL) of equipment. Most of the existing studies on the RUL prediction assume that the failure threshold is a fixed value,as they have difficulty in reflecting the random variation of the failure threshold. In connection with the inadequacies of the existing research, an in-depth analysis is carried out to study the effect of the random failure threshold(RFT) on the prediction results for the RUL. First, a nonlinear degradation model with unit-to-unit variability and measurement error is established based on the nonlinear Wiener process. Second, the expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm is used to solve the estimated values of the parameters of the prior degradation model, and the Bayesian method is used to iteratively update the posterior distribution of the random coefficients. Then, the effects of three types of RFT constraint conditions on the prediction results for the RUL are analyzed, and the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL is derived. Finally,the degradation data of aero-turbofan engines are used to verify the correctness and advantages of the method.
基金the Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(61873024,61773053)the China Central Universities of USTB(FRF-TP-19-049A1Z)the National Key RD Program of China(2017YFB0306403)。
文摘Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life(RUL)and health state for rollers is of great significance to hot rolling production.It can provide decision support for roller management so as to improve the productivity of the hot rolling process.In addition,the RUL prediction for rollers is helpful in transitioning from the current regular maintenance strategy to conditional-based maintenance.Therefore,a new method that can extract coarse-grained and fine-grained features from batch data to predict the RUL of the rollers is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a new deep learning network architecture based on recurrent neural networks that can make full use of the extracted coarsegrained fine-grained features to estimate the heath indicator(HI)is developed,where the HI is able to indicate the health state of the roller.Following that,a state-space model is constructed to describe the HI,and the probabilistic distribution of RUL can be estimated by extrapolating the HI degradation model to a predefined failure threshold.Finally,application to a hot strip mill is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods using data collected from an industrial site,and the relatively low RMSE and MAE values demonstrate its advantages compared with some other popular deep learning methods.
基金Project(61174115)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2013001)supported by Scientific Research Program of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.
